1. Prof. David Alexander University of Florence, Italy RISK assessment and reduction

3. Then (1950s) Now (2009) Under-reporting of disasters More complete recording Counting only direct effects Quantifying indirect effects Smaller population of hazardous places Larger population, greater densities Less inequality Growing inequality and marginalisation Less fixed capital at risk Relentless accumulation of fixed capital Simpler socio-economic networks More complex networks

4. Impact Emergency isolation During the emergency Emergency response Before the impact Preparations and warning After the impact Period of quiescence Risk mitigation Recovery and reconstruction The Phases of Disaster Disaster risk reduction Civil contingencies management Civil protection Emergency preparedness

5. Risk assessment

6. Human activity involves risk and benefit A working definition of safety : " a thing is safe if its risks are judged to be acceptable . " A definition of risk for human societies : "the probability that a certain number of people will die in a given impact during a given interval of time."

7. After Ian Davis (2005) The components of risk Physical disaster Magnitude Frequency Duration Human vulnerability Exposition Location of hazard Environment Resistance Lifestyle and earnings Health Resilience Adjustments Risk reduction activities Preparations for disaster

8. Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Cyclone Tornado Snow avalanche Flood Drought Forest fire Transportation crash Industrial explosion Radioactive contamination Water pollution episode Riot Food adulteration Smoking Mountain climbing Voluntary Involuntary Intense Diffuse Natural Anthropogenic

9. Hazard x Vulnerability = Risk Release rate Dose rate Exposure Impact Response

11. R t = E•R s = E (H•V) R t = total risk E = elements at risk (population, built environment, economic activities) R s = (H • V) = specific risk H = hazard V = vulnerability

12. RELEASE RATE DOSE RATE EXPOSURE An asset is not vulnerable unless it is threatened by something A hazard is not hazardous unless it threatens something COPING, CAPACITY, CAPABILITY, RESILIENCE RISK HAZARD VULNER- ABILITY ELEMENTS AT RISK

13. Magnitude Frequency Logarithm of return period Magnitude What does the magnitude-frequency rule mean in real-life situations?

14. Vertical scales: Hazard : probability of occurrence Vulnerability : potential damage Risk : value of probable costs and losses

15. Fat-tailed distributions of hazard: big events may be more likely than probability theory suggests Hazard, vulnerability & risk levels

16. The relationship between hazard and vulnerability is non-linear

17. VULNERABILITY RISK Intolerable risk and vulnerability Tolerable risk and vulnerability Risk/vulnerability curve Disaster threshold Society sets a level of risk toleration

18. Low Hazard High environment goods life High Probability Low certainty zero In risk assessment probability and consequence are non-linearly related. high risk medium risk low risk

19. Society places arbitrary tolerance levels upon risk Cost of risk reduction Risk Arbitrary tolerance levels COST/RISK=1

20. Number of casualties Cost of retrofitting a building The example of seismic retrofitting unreinforced completely reinforced completely reinforced largely unreinforced Cost of retrofitting a building Cost per life saved

22. A risk classification Voluntary -- Involuntary Chronic -- Catastrophic Common (tolerated) -- Exceptional (dreaded) Injurious -- Fatal Known to those who are exposed -- Unknown to those who are exposed Known to science -- Unknown to science Can be mitigated or controlled -- Cannot be mitigated or controlled Old -- New

24. John Adams's "risk thermostat" Balancing behaviour "Accidents" Perceived danger Rewards Propensity to take risks Cultural filter Cultural filter

25. Filter Perception Culture Decision Action Result Positive Negative Risk Accurate Inaccurate

26. Vulnerability: the main component of risk

28. Disaster management Risk management Crisis management Emergency management Hypothetical Concrete Concentrated Diffuse Vulnerability management

29. A model of vulnerability types Vulnerability Total: life is generally precarious Residual: caused by lack of modernisation Newly generated: caused by changes in circumstances Delinquent: caused by corruption, negligence, etc. Economic: people lack adequate occupation Technological, technocratic: caused by the riskiness of technology

31. Total vulnerability equals Risk amplification processes minus Risk mitigation measures plus or minus Risk perception factors

32. Human cultures constraints, opportunities History single and cumulative impact of past disasters Causes of disaster natural geophysical, technological, social Adaptation to risk IMPACTS

33. Large disaster Expenditure Complacency Risk-expenditure cycle Deaths, injuries, damage, disruption, hardship Review Reduced risk No disaster Reduced expenditure Increased risk

34. Public outcry Rhetoric Logic Laws Safety culture The evolution of a safety culture Disaster

37. What exactly is resilience?

39. Organisation Resources Self-organisation Imposed organisation Volunteerism Community disaster planning Laws, protocols, directives Standards, norms, guidelines Community resources Governmental resources Donations International resources

41. Recovery after disaster Physical recovery Buildings, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, etc. The recovery triangle Social and psychological recovery Reducing post- traumatic stress Economic recovery Re-establishing production and economic activities Political, cultural and environmental context .

43. Vulnerability in the connection between wall and joist leads to collapse of the structure in an earthquake

44. Random rubble masonry with powdery lime mortar is a major source of vulnerability in historic and old buildings.

45. Collapse often begins at roof level if roof structure is too rigid and poorly tied to vertical load-bearing members.

46. Cornices,parapets and other façade details are particularly vulnerable to damage in earthquakes.

47. Inadequately constructed frame buildings are vulnerable to progressive collapse

48. Battering by adjacent buildings with different fundamental periods of vibration.

49. Zone of interference Differential movements

50. Pre-earthquake roof-line Replacement stonework

51. Stairwells are often the most vulnerable part of the building during earthquakes, and the first part that people use as they try to escape.

52. Self-protection during earthquakes and tornadoes is NOT fostered by the myth that it is safe to shelter under desks and tables.

53. Seismic landslide takes centre out of town three days after large earthquake

54. Rotational slumping: the ancient (1777) and modern (1982)

55. Sea coast Massive landslide Push effect Urban areas

56. Forward thrust Nodes are first to fail Columns shear through under sustained pressure Landslide direction

57. Landslide headscarp Extensional movement Pull-apart upslope of headscarp

58. Bedrooms where four people died Spontaneous toppling failure in unconsolidated sands Backward rotation of toppled blocks

59. Spontaneous total failure of foundations Spontaneous total failure of r-c frame bldg ...with some forward thrust

60. Historic urban landscape (with castle, etc.) and a nice, historic urban landslide

61. Tranquil Alpine scene ...with debris flow ...and several brand-new hotels at its foot

62. Unstable slopes of clastic weathered rocks subject to mass movements

66. Risk & disaster management

68. Risk identification : what are the risks? Risk assessment or analysis : how serious are the risks and what do they consist of? Risk management : how can risks be reduced? Risk perception and communication : how can risks be communicated to the public, mass media or others? How experts deal with risk:

70. HAZARD VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE LOW MEDIUM HIGH A simple risk assessment matrix

71. Severit y negligible marginal moderate serious catastrophic Probability of occurrence frequent probable occasional improbable impossible acceptable significant critical Risk level:

72. BCM risk assessment matrix

80. The essence of disaster management:- To tackle pressing needs with maximum efficiency and speed but with scarce resources and in the absence of necessary information BUT emergency planning is still a young field: it lacks international consensus on standards, procedures, and legal and institutional imperatives

82. Set procedures Co-ordinating plan Spontaneous improvisation Set procedures Co-ordinating plan Spontaneous improvisation Emergency environment Emergency environment

83. Continuity of production Preservation of organisation's good name Safeguarding of assets Maintenance of market position

84. Generic crisis typology

90. CITY DISASTER PLAN Where business continuity management fits in: PROVINCIAL, COUNTY, STATE OR REGIONAL DISASTER PLAN NATIONAL DISASTER PLAN AIRPORT EMERGENCY PLAN INDUSTRIAL CONTINGENCY PLAN COMMERCIAL FACILITIES CONTINGENCY PLAN EMS NETWORK CONTINGENCY PLAN HOSPITAL EMS PLAN HOSPITAL EMS PLAN MEDICAL FACILITY PLAN BCM

91. Strategic, tactical & operational planning Aftermath Disaster Monitoring prediction & warning Permanent emergency plan Business continuity plan Recovery and reconstruction planning

94. Construction of operational scenarios of hazard, risk, impact and emergency response Existence of various states of hazard and vulnerabilit y Census of available resources Emergency action plan Processes of constant adaptation of the plan

95. Initial study Revision Testing Evaluation Activation Disaster Dissemination Information Formulation and updating of plan Stakeholders' input Training

96. Evaluation Plan Apparent chaos Model Testing Disaster Outcome Feedback Feedback

99. Conclusions

100. Disaster opens a window of opportunity for positive change and greater security

102. needs to be shortened needs to be lengthened preparation for the next event warning and evacuation recovery and reconstruction repair of basic services emergency management and rescue isolation impact needs to be strengthened Risk reduction and disaster mitigation

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