Class 6 Identifying and Validating Assumptions

Developed by Christina Wodtke & Laura Klein (clever bits by Laura) with illustrations from Kate Rutter.
@cwodtke | cwodtke.com @lauraklein | usersknow.com @katerutter | intelleto.com
Class 6:
Identifying and
(In)Validating Assumptions
@cwodtke
www.eleganthack.com

LAST WEEK
3

“NEVER WRITE
ON THE
BUSINESS MODEL
CANVAS, THAT’S
WHY GOD GAVE
US POST-IT
NOTES”
-ALEX
OSTERWALDER

Do the Math

ASSUMPTIONS
8

(If you’re lucky)Research
Define
Ideate
Prototype
Test
Design
Develop
Waterfall

Meh
Research
Define
Ideate
Prototype
Test
Design
Develop
The Problem

Lean is about Learning
Be wary here.
Build the smallest
possible thing you can
to answer a question.

From Google Ventures Design Sprint http://www.gv.com/lib/the-gv-research-sprint-a-4-day-process-for-answering-important-startup-questions

By using Lean Startup, we identify
assumptions before we base our whole
product strategy on them.
Why is it better?

So, what is an
assumption, anyway?

Types of
Assumptions
Problem
Solution
Implementation

Types of
Assumptions
Problem:
Is there a problem?
Solution:
Is this the right way to solve it?
Implementation:
Can you build & sell it before running out of money?

Business concept by Laura Klein. Illustration by Kate
Rutter

“People who have pets are upset by
cost.”
Problem
Illustration by Kate Rutter

“People need a marketplace for pet jobs.”
Solution

“Pets can work!”
Implementation

Do people have trouble
accessing files across
multiple devices?
What’s The Problem?

People Have Multiple Devices
People Want to Access the
Same Files Across Those
Devices
This Is Hard to Do
Problem Assumptions

Are people willing to download
multiple applications and trust storing
files in the cloud?
What’s The Solution?

People Will Download
DropBox on Multiple Devices
People Will Trust the Service
with Important Data
People Understand How
DropBox Folders Work
Solution Assumptions

Can we sync files across
multiple devices quickly and
accurately enough?
What’s The Implementation?

We Can Build a Product that
Syncs Files Across Multiple
Operating Systems
The Product Will Sync
Quickly and Accurately
Implementation Assumptions

For Product to succeed, it is
necessary that
___________________.
Here’s The Template

Write down your assumptions
3For Product to succeed, it is necessary that
___________________.

Categorize Your Assumptions
P
S
I
1

What Makes an Assumption
Risky?

So, What’s Yours?
Likely
(to fail)
Unlikely
(to fail)
Annoying
Devastating
2

Building is NEVER your
Riskiest Assumption

Ok, Almost Never

Targets Change

A hypothesis statement
should contain:
1. What you believe
2. How you will know if you were right

Problem Hypothesis Example:
We believe people like customer type
have a need for (or problem doing)
need/action/behavior.
We will know we have validated this
when we see
quantitative/measurable outcome or
qualitative/observable outcome. *
*This text was almost entirely stolen from Janice Fraser.

Solution Hypothesis Example:
We believe people like customer
type will solve their problem by
solution behavior.
when we see
qualitative/observable outcome.

Implementation Hypothesis
Example:
We believe our company can provide
solution by implementation method.
when we see
qualitative/observable outcome.

Now You Try It
Write Down:
1. What you believe
2. How you will know if you were right
2

Landing pages are good for…
learning whether people
are interested enough in
your idea to give you their
email addresses

Landing pages are bad for…
Everything Else

Landing pages help validate:
The Problem

Audience Building is good for…
learning the size of the
audience you can attract
to your product before
committing a lot of
money and technical
resources.

How to build an audience
1. Give away expertise for free on a regular basis.
2. Establish yourself as an expert in the space.
3. Build a community of like minded people.

Audience Building helps
validate:
The Problem

Concierge is good for…
learning what is actually
required for your
product before
committing a lot of
money and technical
resources.

Concierge: How Do You Do It?
Provide a service for someone
manually.
Figure out the parts of the problem
that users need the most help with.

Concierge helps you understand:
The Problem
Concierge helps validate:
The Solution

Wizard of Oz is good for…
learning what you need
to automate before
committing a lot of
money and technical
resources

How Do You Do
Wizard of Oz?
Use humans instead of automation until you can’t.
Do things that don’t scale.

Wizard of Oz helps
validate:
The Implementation

Fake Doors are good for…
learning whether users
have any interest in
your feature before
committing a lot of
money and technical
resources

Fake Door: How do you do it
Add the first interaction with an interface.
Provide a good experience for the user
even if it’s not what they expect.

Fake Doors help
validate:
The Solution

Selling is good for…
learning whether users
will pay for your product
before committing a lot of
money and technical
resources

How do you Sell?
Post your idea on Kickstarter
Ask for a credit card or pre-payment

Selling helps validate:
The Solution

Identify the Best Method of Validation
Problem
Solution Implement
ation
Landing Page
Audience Building
Concierge
Wizard of Oz
Fake Door
Selling
3

@lauraklein | usersknow.com
QUESTIONS?
80

Homework!
•Create a landing page for
your product (or run
some other validation
test if you prefer).

Class 6 Identifying and Validating Assumptions

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