1st Cross-Disciplinary Research on Effectual Anticipation (CREA) workshop, Örebro Universitet.

1. from: anticipation
TO: ANTICIPATORY INTELLIGENCE
Carlos R. B. Azevedo – 1st CREA Workshop, Örebro Universitet

2. a little bit about me
I am Carlos, Brazilian, researcher in AI and IoT
Technologies at Ericsson Research, Stockholm
Computer scientist, strongly inclined
towards Humanities.
I’ve been researchingAI since 2005.
My PhD thesis focused on anticipation in multiple
criteria decision-making under uncertainty
Recife

3. why a.i. and why anticipation?
I believe people should have more opportunities
to live and work according to their core values,
thus materializing their full potential.
A.I. systems that integrate with people in ways
that augment and diversify their set of
experiences by anticipating conflicting situations
involving human factors and needs are still largely
unexplored.

4. from anticipation to anticipatory intelligence
outline
1. anticipation and anticipatory systems
2. imaginative intelligence
3. ethical anticipatory intelligence

5. anticipation and anticipatory
systems

6. anticipation
“Anticipation is the generation of a multitude of dynamic
models of human actions and the resolution of their
conflict.” M. Nadin
sources: anticipation.info; M.V. Butz, O. Sigaud, and P. Gerard.
Anticipatory behavior: Exploiting knowledge about the future to
improve current behavior.
“Anticipation is a process or behavior that does not only
depends on past and present but also on predictions,
expectations, or beliefs about the future” M. Butz

7. anticipatory systems
“A system containing a predictive model of itself and/or of
its environment that allows it to change state at an instant
in accord with the model’s predictions pertaining to a later
instant” R. Rosen
sources: anticipation.info; R. Rosen. Anticipatory systems: philosophical,
mathematical, and methodological foundations. Pergamon Pr, 1st
edition, 1985
“An anticipatory system is a system whose current state is
determined by a future state. ‘The cause lies in the future’””
M. Butz

8. predictability vs. understandability
predictable and
understandable
predictable, not
understandable
unpredictable,
understandable
unpredictable
and not
understandable
Examples
1) planetary movements, hurricane landfalls
2) AIDS spread in Africa
3) Earthquakes
4) long-term societal and ecosystems
behavior
1 2
3 4
Source: Extreme Events: Developing a Research Agenda
for the 21st Century

9. imaginative intelligence

10. artificial intelligence
flexible decisions not only can be effective in
managing uncertainty, but also can increase
adaptability to future unpredictable changes
decisiondeliberation

11. Source: Azevedo, C. R. B., and Von Zuben, F. J. Learning to Anticipate Flexible Choices in Multiple Criteria
Decision-Making Under Uncertainty IEEETrans. on Cybernetics (2016)
Anticipatory Sustainable
The system resolves
conflicts by
anticipating situations,
integrating humans
and societal aspects.
The system is tuned to
maintain its short-term
value without
compromising its long-
term value to society.
anticipation in multi-criteria decision-
making under uncertainty
Collaborative Flexible
The system is capable
of fulfilling its goals in
close collaboration and
consideration to
humans.
The system avoids
committing to rigid
course of actions that
can not be reversed
and keeps its future
options open.

12. what did I learn in anticipatory systems studies?
• people often aren’t aware of their preferences, attitudes, beliefs & biases
• understanding is not the same of accurate prediction
• predictability greatly varies over situations
• uncertainty must be explicitly modeled and acted upon
• flexibility is a very powerful response to uncertainty
• anticipation is an exercise of humility
• imagination is key to produce creative, flexible actions

13. imaginative intelligence
decisiondeliberationimagination

14. Source: Inceptionism:Going Deeper into Neural Networks

15. Source: Gatys, L., et al. Image StyleTransfer UsingConvolutional Neural Networks (2016)

16. ethical anticipatory intelligence

17. Source: New bionics let us run, climb and dance
anticipatory motor intelligence

18. Source:Will a robotic arm ever have the full functionality of a human limb?
anticipatory motor intelligence

19. HumanValues: AI systems should be
designed and operated so as to be
compatible with ideals of human dignity,
rights, freedoms, and cultural diversity.
Source: Asilomar AI principles
ethical artificial intelligence