ü The document discusses potential winners and losers from various industries in a post-COVID19 economy. It suggests that consumer values and priorities will shift permanently, forcing industries like travel, hospitality, and commercial real estate to reset after insolvencies. It also predicts that many universities will close or need to reinvent themselves, while accredited homeschooling and online learning platforms may thrive. Sports will need to change the fan experience significantly as well. Overall, recovery will be bumpy at first as the economic impacts are delayed and unprecedented in scale.
1. Industry Watch: Possible
Winners and Likely
Losers Post-COVID19
Weekly Executive Briefing
1 5 t h A p r i l 2 0 2 0 w i t h C h r i s J S n o o k
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3. THE LOGISTICS
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5. THE IMPACTS
COVID-19 IMPACTS ARE
DELAYED, UNPRECEDENTED,
AND WILL BE LASTING.
Sources: http://gohkokhan.com/corona-virus-interactive-dashboard-tweaked/
6. THE PROBLEM
IRRATIONAL MARKET BOUNCE
RISING BKS=BAILOUTS
RECURRING WAVES IN SGP/CN
TEMP/PERM JOB LOSSES/FREEZES
CABIN FEVER & IMPATIENCE
ANXIETY/PTSD GLOBAL SCALE
RISK OF DOUBLE DIGIT DEFAULTS
FISCAL STIMULUS DELAYS
BIPARTISANSHIP/ELECTION YEAR
7. Do you think the U.S. should re-open the
economy May 1, or wait ‘til better data
arrives?
If your State does re-open will you
continue to shelter-in-place, WFH, School
from home until Fall?
POLL QUESTIONS
8. WINNERS &
LIKELY
LOSERS BY
MAJOR
INDUSTRY
AUTO MANUFACTURING
WINNERS:
TESLA (but not why you think)
LOSERS:
Ford
Jeep Chrysler
GM
BMW, MERCEDES, ETC.
EDUCATION
WINNERS:
Homeschooling platforms, Top Tier
Online universities, MOOCs, Cisco,
Zoom, Peleton, etc.
LOSERS:
Overpriced universities
Jury out still: on public K-12
SPORTS/ENTERTAINMENT
WINNERS:
eSports, Video Gaming, Hybrids like
www.fcfl.io, VR/AR, Streaming platforms,
bandwidth providers, fantasy sports
LOSERS:
Movie Theatres, Sporting arenas,
Concert Halls, Casinos, Pro Sports,
restaurants and bars, Parking lot
owners,
TRAVEL/HOSPITALITY/RE
WINNERS:
Luxury travel brands, Road trips/RVs? VR,
Alcohol brands, Cannabis, Porn
LOSERS:
Home prices depreciate, CRE values
plummet (decade plus)
Mass consolidation of AirBNB, VRBO,
Homeaway, and business-traveler hotel,
cruise lines, RV Dealers, and airlines
9. AUTO
-Dealers (new and
used) bk or
consolidate;
-Tesla launches
subscription plans at
scale;
-everyone races to
catch up
-People dump
unused assets to
free up cash
DATA
I t o l d y o u t h i s w a s
s e r i o u s .
T R A P P E D !
S c h e d u l e a
f a m i l y z o o m
u n p r e p a r e d
A n x i o u s
b o r e d
W i l l t h e
s t o r e s g e t
m o r e t o i l e t
p a p e r ?
I a m g o i n g t o
t h e s t o r e .
W e n e e d
t o g e t
i n t o a
h e a l t h i e r
r o u t i n e .
S i g n u p f o r
P e l o t o n
O p e n a
b o t t l e o f
w i n e
A t t e n d a
v i r t u a l
A A
m e e t i n g
ACCESS VS OWNERSHIP
10. EDUCATION
-Innovative
Universities thrive
and survive;
-20-30% of higher
education
institutions go
bankrupt
-MOOC’s replace
night school and
trade schools
-20% of K-12
homeschool
permanently globally
DATA
I t o l d y o u t h i s w a s
s e r i o u s .
T R A P P E D !
S c h e d u l e a
f a m i l y z o o m
u n p r e p a r e d
A n x i o u s
b o r e d
W i l l t h e
s t o r e s g e t
m o r e t o i l e t
p a p e r ?
I a m g o i n g t o
t h e s t o r e .
W e n e e d
t o g e t
i n t o a
h e a l t h i e r
r o u t i n e .
S i g n u p f o r
P e l o t o n
O p e n a
b o t t l e o f
w i n e
A t t e n d a
v i r t u a l
A A
m e e t i n g
BETTER COURSES-AT SCALE
11. SPORTS &
ENTERTAINMENT
-Sports Docs get the
interim attention/demand;
-Classic games get
rewatched
-eSports comes of age
-Hybrids like FCFL.io find
their entry point changing
fan relationship forever
-Colleges feel the pain,
non-traveling youth teams
kill hotels
DATA
I t o l d y o u t h i s w a s
s e r i o u s .
T R A P P E D !
S c h e d u l e a
f a m i l y z o o m
u n p r e p a r e d
A n x i o u s
b o r e d
W i l l t h e
s t o r e s g e t
m o r e t o i l e t
p a p e r ?
I a m g o i n g t o
t h e s t o r e .
W e n e e d
t o g e t
i n t o a
h e a l t h i e r
r o u t i n e .
S i g n u p f o r
P e l o t o n
O p e n a
b o t t l e o f
w i n e
A t t e n d a
v i r t u a l
A A
m e e t i n g
FAN ENGAGEMENT SHIFTS
12. SPORTS &
ENTERTAINMENT
-Are Fan-controlled pro-
sports the future?
DATA
I t o l d y o u t h i s w a s
s e r i o u s .
T R A P P E D !
S c h e d u l e a
f a m i l y z o o m
u n p r e p a r e d
A n x i o u s
b o r e d
W i l l t h e
s t o r e s g e t
m o r e t o i l e t
p a p e r ?
I a m g o i n g t o
t h e s t o r e .
W e n e e d
t o g e t
i n t o a
h e a l t h i e r
r o u t i n e .
S i g n u p f o r
P e l o t o n
O p e n a
b o t t l e o f
w i n e
A t t e n d a
v i r t u a l
A A
m e e t i n g
FAN ENGAGEMENT SHIFTS
13. SPORTS &
ENTERTAINMENT
-Hope is not a strategy
-More layoffs and delays
expected
-Demand will be pent up
-Attention may shift to new
ways to consume
-1/3 of fans don’t know
when they will return
DATA
I t o l d y o u t h i s w a s
s e r i o u s .
T R A P P E D !
S c h e d u l e a
f a m i l y z o o m
u n p r e p a r e d
A n x i o u s
b o r e d
W i l l t h e
s t o r e s g e t
m o r e t o i l e t
p a p e r ?
I a m g o i n g t o
t h e s t o r e .
W e n e e d
t o g e t
i n t o a
h e a l t h i e r
r o u t i n e .
S i g n u p f o r
P e l o t o n
O p e n a
b o t t l e o f
w i n e
A t t e n d a
v i r t u a l
A A
m e e t i n g
FAN SURVEY
14. Travel/Hospitality
& Real Estate
-Massive consolidations
-75.2m estimated layoffs
-Possible nationalization of
airlines
-Demand may never
return to previous levels
for decade+
-Travel now about
relaxation and only critical
business
-tradeshows, events, must
transform the experience
DATA
I t o l d y o u t h i s w a s
s e r i o u s .
T R A P P E D !
S c h e d u l e a
f a m i l y z o o m
u n p r e p a r e d
A n x i o u s
b o r e d
I a m g o i n g t o
t h e s t o r e .
W e n e e d
t o g e t
i n t o a
h e a l t h i e r
r o u t i n e .
S i g n u p f o r
P e l o t o n
O p e n a
b o t t l e o f
w i n e
A t t e n d a
v i r t u a l
A A
m e e t i n g
Jobs get hammered
15. Travel/Hospitality
& Real Estate
-Massive consolidations
-75.2m estimated layoffs
-Possible nationalization of
airlines
-Demand may never
return to previous levels
for decade+
-Travel now about
relaxation and only critical
business
-tradeshows, events, must
transform the experience
DATA
I t o l d y o u t h i s w a s
s e r i o u s .
T R A P P E D !
S c h e d u l e a
f a m i l y z o o m
u n p r e p a r e d
A n x i o u s
b o r e d
I a m g o i n g t o
t h e s t o r e .
W e n e e d
t o g e t
i n t o a
h e a l t h i e r
r o u t i n e .
S i g n u p f o r
P e l o t o n
O p e n a
b o t t l e o f
w i n e
A t t e n d a
v i r t u a l
A A
m e e t i n g
Jobs get hammered
16. Will travel
become
irrelevant?
NO but….
DATA
I t o l d y o u t h i s w a s
s e r i o u s .
T R A P P E D !
S c h e d u l e a
f a m i l y z o o m
u n p r e p a r e d
A n x i o u s
b o r e d
I a m g o i n g t o
t h e s t o r e .
W e n e e d
t o g e t
i n t o a
h e a l t h i e r
r o u t i n e .
S i g n u p f o r
P e l o t o n
O p e n a
b o t t l e o f
w i n e
A t t e n d a
v i r t u a l
A A
m e e t i n g
Will VRcations be enough?
17. Travel/Hospitality
& Real Estate
-Empire State Building
wasn’t cash flow positive
for 20 years following the
opening during the
Depression
DATA
T R A P P E D !
S c h e d u l e a
f a m i l y z o o m
u n p r e p a r e d
A n x i o u s
b o r e d
I a m g o i n g t o
t h e s t o r e .
W e n e e d
t o g e t
i n t o a
h e a l t h i e r
r o u t i n e .
S i g n u p f o r
P e l o t o n
O p e n a
b o t t l e o f
w i n e
A t t e n d a
v i r t u a l
A A
m e e t i n g
Real Estate gets hammered
18. More is inevitable but less
is also our new reality and
better will be what wins.
SUMMARY
ü Consumer values will be permanently shifted and
refocused
ü Hot zones will be left once able and talent will
migrate shifting economic development impact
ü Community will be center to a new core value index
ü COVID19 may truly “break the internet” and force
new web infrastructure to the forefront
ü Travel and hospitality and commercial real estate
will face a major reset in a few years once the
insolvencies have worked through.
ü Many colleges and universities will go bankrupt or
be forced to reinvent their value prop
ü Pro and College Sports will need to reinvent the fan
experience; eSports will thrive
ü Accredited homeschooling will bring the best
curriculums to a billion or more learners.
ü Its all going to be ok but it will be very bumpy first J
19. RESOURCES:
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H O S T:
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