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WELCOME
                           State of the Global Mobile Industry
                                     We are thrilled you are here
                           Half Yearly Assessment - 2011




Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.


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Table of Contents


•   Mobile Trends for 2011
•   Mobile Subscriber and Revenue Growth
•   Global Markets – Data Growth
•   Devices – Changing Landscape
•   Mobile Ecosystem Disruption
•   Mobile Impacts Everything
•   Mobile Data Traffic Growth and Solutions
•   Intellectual Property
•   2H 2011


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Mobile Trends for 2011
  1.        Total Global Subscriptions to hit 6 Billion
        –         India and China racing to a billion a piece
  2.        Total Global Mobile Revenues to hit $1.3 Trillion, almost 2% of Global GDP
        –         Top 10 operators control 43% of the global mobile revenues
  3.        Total Global Mobile Data Revenues to eclipse $300 Billion
        –         Non-messaging data now owns 53% of the global mobile data revenues
  4.        Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales + revenue
        –         Majority of the device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device Replacement is shrinking
  5.        Mobile Broadband (4G) is being deployed at a faster rate than previous generations
        –         Over 1 Billion broadband connections by 2011
  6.        Global Mobile Apps revenue has shifted to off-deck
        –         The decline is directly proportional to the increase in smartphone penetration by region
  7.        All major markets are consolidating with the top 3 players at 85% of the market
        –         Regulators will have to be more prudent and proactive about managing competitiveness and growth
  8.        Mobile Data Traffic will be 95% of the global mobile traffic by 2015
        –         Many countries are facing spectrum exhaust in the next 5 years
  9.        Connected device segment is growing at the fastest pace
        –         Operators will have to quickly adapt their strategies to stay relevant in this segment
  10.       Several multi-billion dollar opportunity segments are emerging
        –         Mobile Advertising, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Wellness, Mobile Games, and Mobile Cloud Computing to name a few
  11.       Mobile Ecosystem has become very dynamic and unpredictable
        –         Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most important revenue generating mobile platforms
  12.       There will be more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100
        –         The value chains will keep disrupting every 12-24 months by the new players and business models
  13.       Intellectual Property has become a key component of long-term product strategy
        –         Top 20 control 1/3rd of the overall mobile patent pool

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MOBILE SUBSCRIBER AND REVENUE
GROWTH
The Big Picture

•   The global mobile industry is the most vibrant and fastest growing industry. We expect the total revenue in
    the industry to touch approximately $1.3 Trillion in 2011 with mobile data representing 24% of the mix.
    Global Mobile Data revenues are expected to eclipse $300 Billion for the first time in 2011. It is also the
    first year in which non-messaging data revenues will make up the majority of the overall global data
    revenues at 53%.
•   We expect the total number of subscriptions to exceed 6 billion by the end of 2011. The first 1 billion took
    over 20 years and this last one is going to take only 15 months. The primary growth drivers are India and
    China which are cumulatively adding 75M new subs every quarter. Indian and China are also entangled in
    the race to the billion. At the end of Q2 2011, China was ahead by 50M but India is adding subscriptions at
    faster rate and is likely to eclipse China before Q2 2012. By then, both nations are expected to exceed 1
    Billion in total subscriptions making up 31% of the global subscriptions.
•   In Q1 2011, US became the first major market to exceed the 50% mark in smartphone sales. The global
    figure stands at approximately 26%. Some operators expect 90% of their device sales to be smartphones
    by the end of the year. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse
    the 50% mark in 2012.
•   China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of
    emerging nations are now in top 10 – Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once
    dominant – Korea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings.
•   The number of mobile operators with more than $1B in data revenues will increase to 47 in 2011. This
    number was only at 13 in 2005.




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Global Mobile Market Snapshot 2011
              Global Mobile Market Snapshot 2011

                                                                                                           Global
                                                                                                        Subscriptions




                                                                                                           Global
                                                                                                         Smartphone
                                                                                                           Users




                                                                                                        Global Data
                                                                                                           Users




                                                                                                                             © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011
                                                                                                          Global SMS
                                                                                                             Users




                                                                                                        Global Mobile
                                                                                                         Broadband
                                                                                                            Users




                                           Each dude represents approximately 113 million humans on planet Earth
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Global Mobile Industry Growth




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Global Mobile Leaders


Rank   By Subs                            By Total Revenue                           By Data Revenue
1      China                              US                                         US
2      India                              China                                      Japan
3      US                                 Japan                                      China
4      Russia                             Brazil                                     UK
5      Brazil                             France                                     Germany
6      Indonesia                          India                                      France
7      Japan                              UK                                         Italy
8      Germany                            Germany                                    Australia
9      Pakistan                           Italy                                      Brazil
10     Mexico                             Russia                                     Russia



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Global Mobile Leaders


Rank   By Sub Penetration                By ARPU                                    By Data Usage
1      Portugal                          Japan                                      Sweden
2      Russia                            Canada                                     US
3      Finland                           Switzerland                                Hong Kong
4      Greece                            US                                         Finland
5      Italy                             Norway                                     Denmark
6      Austria                           Australia                                  Canada
7      Singapore                         France                                     Australia
8      Sweden                            Israel                                     New Zealand
9      Denmark                           Netherlands                                Austria
10     Germany                           Singapore                                  Belgium



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Biggest Telecom Groups


Rank   By Subs                          By Data Revenue                           By NM Data Revenue
1      China Mobile                     Verizon Wireless                          AT&T Mobility
2      Vodafone                         NTT DoCoMo                                NTT DoCoMo
3      Telefonica                       AT&T Mobility                             Verizon Wireless
4      America Movil                    China Mobile                              China Mobile
5      Bharti Airtel                    Vodafone                                  Vodafone
6      Telenor                          KDDI                                      KDDI
7      China Unicom                     T-Mobile                                  T-Mobile
8      T-Mobile                         Telefonica                                Telefonica
9      TeliaSonera                      Sprint Nextel                             Sprint Nextel
10     Reliance                         Softbank                                  Softbank



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Global Mobile Industry continues to
grow at a healthy pace




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Mobile is approx 2% of Global GDP




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Operators around the world are
benefiting from mobile data




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Top 10 global mobile data operators –
US, Japan Dominate




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GLOBAL MARKETS: DATA GROWTH
US, Japan lead in revenues;
China, India in subscriptions

• Japan continues to be the leader in mobile data with NTT DoCoMo,
  KDDI, and Softbank Japan ahead of the pack in terms of mobile data
  revenue and data as a % of total ARPU.
• Next, Australia and the US have made good inroads in the last two
  years. In fact, if we look at the overall data revenue, US is much
  further ahead than any nation due to the size of the market.
• While India has the highest subscriber growth rate in the world
  right now, the revenue generating opportunity remain down right
  anemic compared to other major markets with average dropping
  down to $3.50 in overall ARPU. Even with significant subscriber
  base, there is going to be a general lack of opportunity in the
  market for the next couple of years relative to other markets.




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Japanese operators ahead of the mobile
data pack




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All major markets experiencing data
growth – Japan, Australia, US leading




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Race to the Billion – China vs. India




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DEVICES: CHANGING LANDSCAPE
Devices – Apple, Android Dominate

•   Apple has had the tablet space to itself. Thus far the response from the competitors has been tepid esp.
    on the pricing dimension. Apple has had such a mastery over the supply-chain and months ahead of the
    competition that by the time they figure out details, Apple already locks up the pricing advantage for the
    cycle. OEMs try to catch-up on the features but can’t do on the margins. OEMs can grow the pie by
    bringing products at a better price points that helps attract different demographics to the mix. Microsoft
    can make good inroads into the space with its Win8 tablet release in 2012 but it will be again in a catch-
    up mode as the iOS ecosystem will be even more robust by then. The cheaper Android tablets will do well
    in the market. As expected, tablets will pretty much eliminate the need for netbooks and are starting to
    eat into the desktop/laptop revenue.
•   Nokia and RIM are under severe market scrutiny as investors and developers leave in droves. Lack of
    product planning and execution has left their market share in disarray. Nokia’s valuation has been cut into
    half while the newcomer HTC edged past the industry giant in a remarkable story of the year. Nokia’s
    release of N9 shows the engineering and creative design depth but a lot is riding on the first generation
    of Nokia Windows Phones. While the market hasn’t shown much appetite for Windows phone thus far, a
    good family of devices might be able to slow the loss trajectory and position the combined team for the
    up-for-grabs 3rd spot in the ecosystem. HP’s acquisition of Palm is finally bringing some new products to
    the market but the lack of an effective ecosystem means lack of traction in 2011. Given that the
    computing is shifting to mobile devices, we can expect some of the weaker desktop/laptop players will
    exit the industry.
•   Tablets are primarily being used in the WiFi mode because the primary use case is indoors and WiFi gives
    a better (and cheaper) user experience. Once operators start to roll out user-friendly family data plans
    across multiple devices, we can expect the cellular activation go higher but will still be dominated by WiFi
    overall.

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Apple dominates the profits, Android
the volume, Nokia falters




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Mobile Devices are dominating the
Computing Ecosystem




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US leading in smartphone sales




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Connected devices explosion




    Source: Mobile Cloud Computing.
    http://chetansharma.com/mobilecloudcomputing.htm

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Tablets are primarily WiFi
consumption devices right now




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Competing with iPad




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Changing Ecosystem Dynamics


It is very clear that the ecosystem dynamics can change very quickly,
one just can’t take the competitive and friendly forces for granted. In
the past, the silos and segments were clearly defined with little
overlap. However, over the course of last couple of years, players have
been migrating and surfing in segments across the board - from Apple
to Visa, from P&G to AT&T, from Facebook to Time Warner, from
Google to Best Buy, every company wants to capture the mindshare
and piece of the consumer’s pocketbook.

The fine line between partners and competitors can get obliterated in
a quarter. Apple is competing with Cisco, Comcast is going after AT&T’s
business, Visa and Verizon want to be the payment channel of choice,
Amazon is gunning for Microsoft’s enterprise business, so on and so
forth. One product launch, one acquisition, can change the game in an
instant. And this is only the beginning.


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Competitive Dynamics

•   The Rule of Three is evident in all major markets. While the percentage market share might vary, on an
    average, the top 3 control 93% of the market in an given nation. It doesn’t matter if the market is defined
    by “controlled regulation” like in China, Korea, and Japan or if it is “open market” driven in markets such as
    the US, UK, and India. Eventually, only top 3 operators control the majority of the market. There are niches
    that others occupy but they are largely irrelevant to the overall structure and functioning of the mobile
    market.
•   Markets such as US and India experienced similar competitive environment in their hyper-growth phase.
    For the US, this phase was in the nineties-mid-2000s while India has been experiencing the similar
    environment in the last 3-4 years. In both cases, at the start there are 5-6 players with no more than 25%
    market share but higher than 10% of the mix but gradually the market forces enable consolidation. Over a
    period of 18 years, US is settling into a “top 3” operator market. India’s brutal price wars are going to
    trigger the consolidation in the next 12-24 months and will eventually settle into a structure similar to
    other markets.
•   The competitive equilibrium point in the mobile industry seems to when the market shares of the top 3
    are 46%:29%:18% respectively with the remaining 7% being allocated to the niche operators. To achieve
    some semblance of equilibrium in the market the top operator shouldn’t have more than 50% of the
    market share and the number three player shouldn’t have less than 20%. This helps create enough balance
    in the market to derive maximum value for the consumer.
•   Mobile operators will face some hard choices in developing and protecting the role they want to play in a
    given region and the ecosystem at-large. The strategy they choose will have a direct impact on the
    expected EBITDA margins, investment required over the long-haul, how investors view them, and on the
    competitive landscape of the country. Given, the fast pace of globalization, new rules and trends might
    emerge over the course of this decade that further define “communications” and “computing” as we know
    it.
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Competitive Landscape in Major Markets




Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets.
http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm




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Global Mobile Competitive Index




    Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets.
    http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm
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Eventually all markets consolidate to top 3




        Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets.
        http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm

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MOBILE IMPACTS EVERYTHING
Mobile Apps and Services


Mobile is fundamentally reshaping how we as consumers
spend from housing and healthcare to entertainment and
travel, from food and drinks to communication and
transportation. Mobile not only influences purchase
behavior but also post purchase opinions. When the
share button is literally a second away, consumers are
willingly sharing more information than ever before.
Mobile is thus helping close the nirvana gap for brands
and advertisers who seek to connect advertising to actual
transactions. The long-term battle is however for owning
the context of the users. Having the best knowledge
about the user to help drive the transaction is the simply
the most valuable currency of commerce.

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Mobile impacts all purchase funnels




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Context – the most valuable currency
    in mobile
                                            Demographics/Explicit
                                                  Profile

                      Interests/Implicit Profile                                                                                       Browsing, Watching,
                                                                                                                                       Previewing, Flipping

                Sensor data
                                                                                                                                                Purchasing, Payments

                User Intent

                                                                                                                                                      Communications
        Location
                                                                                   Trusted Concierge
      Presence                                                                                                                                                 Search (Local, Online,
                                                                                                                                                                      Media)

Physiological
 parameters
                                                                     Knowledge                                  Transactions
                                                                                           DRIVES
                                                                    (about User)                                 (from User)
      Calendar                                                                                                                                                      User Experience



      Address Book
                                                                                                                                                                        Gifting

      Social Community

                                                                                   Trusted Advisor                                                                Advertising
     Intellectual Community


                          M2M                                                                                                                                 Pricing


                      Preferences
                                                                                                                                         Security/Authorization

                      Devices in the vicinity

                                                                                            Big Opportunities in becoming the trusted
                                                3 Party Sources
                                                 rd

                                                                                            Concierge/Advisor to the individual user
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Smartphones are enabling Offdeck to
dominate app revenue




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MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC GROWTH
Mobile Data Traffic Growth


• In most western markets, data traffic is
  doubling YOY
• Sweden, US, Hong Kong, Japan, and Denmark
  make the top 5 in terms of MB consumed per
  capita
• A Multi-pronged approach is needed to have a
  sustainable strategy long term



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Only a holistic strategy to deal with data
tsunami can help the operators long-term

  •   As a result of the data tsunami, there are two types of opportunities that are being
      created, one that take advantage of the data being generated in a way that enhances
      the user experience and provides value and the other in technologies that help manage
      the traffic data that will continue to grow exponentially.
  •   To be able to stay ahead of the demand, significant planning needs to go in to deal with
      the bits and bytes that are already exploding. New technical and business solutions will
      be needed to manage the growth and profit from the services. Relying on only one
      solution won’t be an effective strategy to manage rising data demand. A holistic
      approach to managing data traffic is needed and our analysis shows that the cost
      structure can be reduced by more than half if a suite of solutions are deployed vs. a
      single dimensional approach and thus bringing the hockey stick curves of data cost
      more in line with the revenues and thus preserving the margins.
  •   The decision making process within the operator organizations will need to be
      streamlined as well. Operators should also consider creating a senior post which
      focuses on both the cost side and the solution side so they can devise and institute a
      sustainable long-term policy and keep the margins healthy.



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Mobile data traffic growing faster
than online traffic, doubling Y/Y




     Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition
     http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm
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Margin preservation key to all
operator strategies




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Managing data margins will be top
     priority for all operators


                        50%




                                                                                                  m
                                                                                                iu
                                                                                                                                                       Philippines




                                                                                             br
                                                                                          ili
                                                                                                                                                                  Japan




                                                                                        qu
                                                                                      cE
                                                                                   ffi
                                                                                 ra
                                                                                -T
                        40%




                                                                              ue
                                                                            en
Data as % of Services




                                                                            v
                                                                         Re
                                                                                                                                                    Australia
                                                                         China
     Revenues




                                                                                                          Indonesia US                    UK
                                                                                                                                                       New Zealand
                        30%                                                                                                 Singapore        Hong Kong
                                                                                                                                    Netherlands      Germany




                                                                                                                                                                                  © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011
                                                                                                                                           Italy        Sweden
                                                                                                                                         Switzerland
                                                                            Mexico             Malaysia                             France Portugal
                        20%                                                                                                 Canada                 Denmark
                                                                                                                                Korea Finland
                                                                                                                         Russia                  Spain

                                                                                                           Brazil                   South Africa
                                                                             India
                        10%                                                                           Argentina




                                                  20%                        40%                       60%                                  80%                            100%
                                                                               Data as % of Overall Network
                                                                                          Traffic
                              Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition
                              http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm
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Management of Data Requires
Multiple Strategies
                                             Radio Access Network                                                Core Network

                                           Mobile Backhaul


                                  Copper

              2G
                                                                                                           Core Network

                                Microwave
              3G


                                     Fiber                                                 RNC                        SGSN                 GGSN

              4G

                                     Light




                                                                                                                                                               Internet Services
                                   Networks

                                                                                                           Offloading Traffic
                                  Optimization

                                                                              Offloading Traffic

        WiFi/FemtoCell                                                                                          Compression/Optimization


                                                       Compression/Optimization of Data Traffic


                                                                    Policy Management


    Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition
    http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm
                   http://www.chetansharma.com                      44      © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY WILL REMAIN
KEY TO LONG-TERM PRODUCT AND
COMPETITIVE STRATEGY SUCCESS
IP is critical to long-term product strategy

  • The IP tussles are playing out as expected
  • Players with strong IP portfolios will be able to command better
    negotiating positions, new revenue streams, competitive positioning
    over the long-term
  • On average mobile companies file patents 1.7 times more in the US vs.
    Europe
  • Mobile Patent Leaders in US: IBM, Microsoft, Samsung
  • Mobile Patent Leaders in Europe: Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia, Samsung
  • Mobile Patent Leaders in Infrastructure: Samsung, Alcatel-Lucent,
    Ericsson
  • Mobile Patent Leaders in Device/Software: Nokia, IBM, Microsoft
  • Mobile Patent Leaders in Service Providers: AT&T, NTT DoCoMo, Sprint
  • Top 20 control 1/3rd of the total mobile communications patent pool

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Patent Power Rankings – Mobile Communications
Related Issued Patents 1993-2011


   Rank   US                                    Europe                                           US+Europe
   1      IBM                                   Alcatel-Lucent                                   Samsung
   2      Microsoft                             Nokia                                            Nokia
   3      Samsung                               Samsung                                          Alcatel-Lucent
   4      Nokia                                 Sony                                             IBM
   5      Motorola                              Ericsson                                         Ericsson
   6      Ericsson                              RIM                                              Microsoft
   7      Intel                                 Siemens                                          Sony
   8      Sony                                  NTT DoCoMo                                       Motorola
   9      Alcatel-Lucent                        Fujitsu                                          Qualcomm
   10     AT&T                                  Qualcomm                                         Siemens

                                        Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by
                                        The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesn’t take a look at the quality or the value of the patents

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Patent Power Rankings – Mobile Communications
Related Issued Patents 1993-2011


   Rank   OEM/Software                          Infrastructure                                   Service Provider
   1      Nokia                                 Samsung                                          AT&T
   2      IBM                                   Alcatel-Lucent                                   NTT DoCoMo
   3      Microsoft                             Ericsson                                         Sprint
   4      Sony                                  Qualcomm                                         Orange
   5      Motorola                              Siemens                                          Deutsche Telekom
   6      Intel                                 NEC                                              Verizon
   7      RIM                                   LG                                               British Telecom
   8      HP                                    Fujitsu                                          Swisscom
   9      Oracle                                Cisco                                            Telecom Italia
   10     SAP                                   Broadcom                                         SK Telecom

                                        Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by
                                        The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesn’t take a look at the quality or the value of the patents

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Integration of IP with product strategy is
 essential for competitiveness in mobile
                                         NUMERIC
                                         ANALYSIS


                                                                                                                       Improve your PPQ by
                                                                                                                       tight integration with product
                                         SUBJECTIVE                              Patent Portfolio Quotient™
                                          ANALYSIS                   f(Σ)                  (PPQ)
                                                                                                                       strategy

                                          PATENT
                                         PROGRAM
                                         ANALYSIS

R&D, Other
 Sources                 Ideation



                          Market                            Product                          Design and
                                                                                                                                       Public Disclosure
                       Requirements                       Requirements                      Development




                                                                                                                                                                                  © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011
                             Licensing



                              IP competitive and
         IP Analysis                                                        IP Protection Process                                                  IP Management
                               risk assessment




                                                               IP driven Product Development Cycle




                       Source: What is your Patent Portfolio Quotient?
                       http://chetansharma.com/patentportfolioquotient.htm
                                      http://www.chetansharma.com           49          © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2H 2011
What to expect in 2H 2011
•   More Tiering, faster pace of change of plans. More options, family data plans
•   Cost reduction is as important as revenue generation. More players will align their value-chains and cost
    structures
•   Radios will start connecting the digital world with the physical world with significant disruption opportunity
•   Mobile Payment Networks will remain intact for the near future as the ecosystem largely focuses on building
    value on top of the existing exchange platforms
•   The intersection of Social, Location, Identity, and Gaming is creating new opportunities
•   With connectivity becoming pervasive, mobile will fundamentally start to alter the legacy infrastructure –
    retail, health, education, energy, computing, travel, entertainment
•   Significant tablet adoption in the enterprise directly impacting the traditional computer manufacturers
•   Both HTML5 and Apps will continue to grow, the relevancy to any given application will depend on the reach
    and economics requirements
•   Mobile data growth will double again in 2011. Significant opportunities in managed and understanding of
    mobile data growth
•   Regulators will need to evolve to keep up with the trend to keep their nation globally competitive
•   IP will continue to surface as a key product strategy tool for players in the ecosystem
•   Significant progress in emerging areas like mHealth, mPayments will come from the developing world while
    the western countries get mired in regulatory and legacy mess




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MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD
MOBILE THOUGHT-LEADERSHIP SUMMIT
Connected Universe. Unlimited Opportunities.




              http://www.mobilefutureforward.com

http://www.chetansharma.com   53   © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
Exceptional Speakers. Actionable Insights.
  •   Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Mobility                 •       Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave
  •   Gibu Thomas, SVP - Online/Mobile, Walmart             •       Kris Rinne, SVP - Networks, AT&T Mobility
  •   Charlie Herrin, SVP - Products and Technology,        •       Mike Mulica, President, Synchronoss Technologies
      Comcast                                               •       Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media
  •   Jeremiah Zinn, EVP, MTV                               •       Rob Glaser, Partner, Accel
  •   Sanjiv Ahuja, CEO, LightSquared                       •       Stephen Bye, CTO, Sprint
  •   Steve Mollenkopf, EVP and Group President,            •       Suja Chandrasekaran, CIO, Timberland
      Qualcomm
                                                            •       Will Hsu, Chief Product Officer, AT&T Interactive
  •   Danny Bowman, President - Connected Devices, Sprint
                                                            •       Ken Wirth, President, Alcatel Lucent Wireless
      Nextel
                                                            •       Abhi Ingle, VP – Advanced Mobility, AT&T Wireless
  •   David Messenger, EVP, Head - Online/Mobile,
      American Express                                      •       Amit Gupta, SVP and CTO, INQMobile
  •   Prof. Cliff Nass, Human Computer Interaction,         •       Carlos Domingo, CEO, Telefonica I&D
      Stanford University                                   •       Matt Oomen, President, Reliance Communications
  •   Jason MacKenzie, President, HTC-Americas              •       Braxton Woodham, Head of Engineering, AVOS
  •   Erik Moreno, SVP, Fox                                 •       John SanGiovanni, Cofounder, Zumobi
  •   Hank Skorny, Chief Strategy Officer, Real Networks    •       Bob Gessel, VP/Head -Tech/Network Strategy, Ericsson
  •   Jerry Batt, CIO, PulteGroup                           •       Subba Rao, former CEO, Tata DoCoMo
  •   Jay Emmet, GM, OpenMarket                             •       Dale Nitschke, former President, Target
  •   Janet Schijns, VP, Verizon Wireless                   •       Mark Rolston, Chief Creative Officer, Frog Design
  •   Mikael Back, VP – Products, Ericsson
                                                                                                                              …. and many more



                       http://www.chetansharma.com    54        © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
Discussions to inform your strategy
      •   Is 4G a Game Changer?
      •   Innovation at the Edges
      •   Mobile Payments and Commerce
      •   Disruption is in the air
      •   Mobile Data Services from the Prism of the CIOs
      •   Solving the 50 year Spectrum Crunch
      •   Managing the Network Growth
      •   Opportunities in the Emerging Markets
      •   The Universe of Connected Devices
      •   Analytics - How to Collect, Manage, and Use Data?
      •   Multi-modal Interactions - How Consumers Adapt?
      •   At the Intersection of Social, Mobile, Commerce, Content
      •   Battle for the Home – playing in the n-screen world
      •   What do Developers Want?
      •   A Smarter Planet - The Role of Mobile in Enhancing Lifestyles and in Making Everyday Decisions
      •   Drivers for New Sources of Revenue
      •   Role of Regulations - Spectrum, Privacy, Net-Neutrality
      •   Mobile Cloud Computing
      •   Monetizing the network
      •   From 3 Screens to Multi-screens
      •   Mobile Universe in 2020
                 http://www.chetansharma.com    55    © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
We look forward to hearing from you


Chetan Sharma                                       Mobile Future Forward
chetan@chetansharma.com                             info@mobilefutureforward.com
TW: @chetansharma                                   TW: @mfutureforward
http://www.chetansharma.com                         http://www.mobilefutureforward.com




   Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.



              http://www.chetansharma.com   56   © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011

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State of global_mobile_industry_1_h_2011_chetan_sharma_consulting

  • 1. WELCOME State of the Global Mobile Industry We are thrilled you are here Half Yearly Assessment - 2011 Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits. http://www.chetansharma.com 1 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is prohibited. 7/2011
  • 2. Table of Contents • Mobile Trends for 2011 • Mobile Subscriber and Revenue Growth • Global Markets – Data Growth • Devices – Changing Landscape • Mobile Ecosystem Disruption • Mobile Impacts Everything • Mobile Data Traffic Growth and Solutions • Intellectual Property • 2H 2011 http://www.chetansharma.com 2 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 3. Mobile Trends for 2011 1. Total Global Subscriptions to hit 6 Billion – India and China racing to a billion a piece 2. Total Global Mobile Revenues to hit $1.3 Trillion, almost 2% of Global GDP – Top 10 operators control 43% of the global mobile revenues 3. Total Global Mobile Data Revenues to eclipse $300 Billion – Non-messaging data now owns 53% of the global mobile data revenues 4. Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales + revenue – Majority of the device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device Replacement is shrinking 5. Mobile Broadband (4G) is being deployed at a faster rate than previous generations – Over 1 Billion broadband connections by 2011 6. Global Mobile Apps revenue has shifted to off-deck – The decline is directly proportional to the increase in smartphone penetration by region 7. All major markets are consolidating with the top 3 players at 85% of the market – Regulators will have to be more prudent and proactive about managing competitiveness and growth 8. Mobile Data Traffic will be 95% of the global mobile traffic by 2015 – Many countries are facing spectrum exhaust in the next 5 years 9. Connected device segment is growing at the fastest pace – Operators will have to quickly adapt their strategies to stay relevant in this segment 10. Several multi-billion dollar opportunity segments are emerging – Mobile Advertising, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Wellness, Mobile Games, and Mobile Cloud Computing to name a few 11. Mobile Ecosystem has become very dynamic and unpredictable – Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most important revenue generating mobile platforms 12. There will be more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100 – The value chains will keep disrupting every 12-24 months by the new players and business models 13. Intellectual Property has become a key component of long-term product strategy – Top 20 control 1/3rd of the overall mobile patent pool http://www.chetansharma.com 3 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 4. MOBILE SUBSCRIBER AND REVENUE GROWTH
  • 5. The Big Picture • The global mobile industry is the most vibrant and fastest growing industry. We expect the total revenue in the industry to touch approximately $1.3 Trillion in 2011 with mobile data representing 24% of the mix. Global Mobile Data revenues are expected to eclipse $300 Billion for the first time in 2011. It is also the first year in which non-messaging data revenues will make up the majority of the overall global data revenues at 53%. • We expect the total number of subscriptions to exceed 6 billion by the end of 2011. The first 1 billion took over 20 years and this last one is going to take only 15 months. The primary growth drivers are India and China which are cumulatively adding 75M new subs every quarter. Indian and China are also entangled in the race to the billion. At the end of Q2 2011, China was ahead by 50M but India is adding subscriptions at faster rate and is likely to eclipse China before Q2 2012. By then, both nations are expected to exceed 1 Billion in total subscriptions making up 31% of the global subscriptions. • In Q1 2011, US became the first major market to exceed the 50% mark in smartphone sales. The global figure stands at approximately 26%. Some operators expect 90% of their device sales to be smartphones by the end of the year. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse the 50% mark in 2012. • China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of emerging nations are now in top 10 – Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once dominant – Korea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings. • The number of mobile operators with more than $1B in data revenues will increase to 47 in 2011. This number was only at 13 in 2005. http://www.chetansharma.com 5 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 6. Global Mobile Market Snapshot 2011 Global Mobile Market Snapshot 2011 Global Subscriptions Global Smartphone Users Global Data Users © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011 Global SMS Users Global Mobile Broadband Users Each dude represents approximately 113 million humans on planet Earth http://www.chetansharma.com 6 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 7. Global Mobile Industry Growth http://www.chetansharma.com 7 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 8. Global Mobile Leaders Rank By Subs By Total Revenue By Data Revenue 1 China US US 2 India China Japan 3 US Japan China 4 Russia Brazil UK 5 Brazil France Germany 6 Indonesia India France 7 Japan UK Italy 8 Germany Germany Australia 9 Pakistan Italy Brazil 10 Mexico Russia Russia http://www.chetansharma.com 8 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 9. Global Mobile Leaders Rank By Sub Penetration By ARPU By Data Usage 1 Portugal Japan Sweden 2 Russia Canada US 3 Finland Switzerland Hong Kong 4 Greece US Finland 5 Italy Norway Denmark 6 Austria Australia Canada 7 Singapore France Australia 8 Sweden Israel New Zealand 9 Denmark Netherlands Austria 10 Germany Singapore Belgium http://www.chetansharma.com 9 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 10. Biggest Telecom Groups Rank By Subs By Data Revenue By NM Data Revenue 1 China Mobile Verizon Wireless AT&T Mobility 2 Vodafone NTT DoCoMo NTT DoCoMo 3 Telefonica AT&T Mobility Verizon Wireless 4 America Movil China Mobile China Mobile 5 Bharti Airtel Vodafone Vodafone 6 Telenor KDDI KDDI 7 China Unicom T-Mobile T-Mobile 8 T-Mobile Telefonica Telefonica 9 TeliaSonera Sprint Nextel Sprint Nextel 10 Reliance Softbank Softbank http://www.chetansharma.com 10 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 11. Global Mobile Industry continues to grow at a healthy pace http://www.chetansharma.com 11 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 12. Mobile is approx 2% of Global GDP http://www.chetansharma.com 12 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 13. Operators around the world are benefiting from mobile data http://www.chetansharma.com 13 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 14. Top 10 global mobile data operators – US, Japan Dominate http://www.chetansharma.com 14 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 16. US, Japan lead in revenues; China, India in subscriptions • Japan continues to be the leader in mobile data with NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, and Softbank Japan ahead of the pack in terms of mobile data revenue and data as a % of total ARPU. • Next, Australia and the US have made good inroads in the last two years. In fact, if we look at the overall data revenue, US is much further ahead than any nation due to the size of the market. • While India has the highest subscriber growth rate in the world right now, the revenue generating opportunity remain down right anemic compared to other major markets with average dropping down to $3.50 in overall ARPU. Even with significant subscriber base, there is going to be a general lack of opportunity in the market for the next couple of years relative to other markets. http://www.chetansharma.com 16 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 17. Japanese operators ahead of the mobile data pack http://www.chetansharma.com 17 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 18. All major markets experiencing data growth – Japan, Australia, US leading http://www.chetansharma.com 18 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 19. Race to the Billion – China vs. India http://www.chetansharma.com 19 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 21. Devices – Apple, Android Dominate • Apple has had the tablet space to itself. Thus far the response from the competitors has been tepid esp. on the pricing dimension. Apple has had such a mastery over the supply-chain and months ahead of the competition that by the time they figure out details, Apple already locks up the pricing advantage for the cycle. OEMs try to catch-up on the features but can’t do on the margins. OEMs can grow the pie by bringing products at a better price points that helps attract different demographics to the mix. Microsoft can make good inroads into the space with its Win8 tablet release in 2012 but it will be again in a catch- up mode as the iOS ecosystem will be even more robust by then. The cheaper Android tablets will do well in the market. As expected, tablets will pretty much eliminate the need for netbooks and are starting to eat into the desktop/laptop revenue. • Nokia and RIM are under severe market scrutiny as investors and developers leave in droves. Lack of product planning and execution has left their market share in disarray. Nokia’s valuation has been cut into half while the newcomer HTC edged past the industry giant in a remarkable story of the year. Nokia’s release of N9 shows the engineering and creative design depth but a lot is riding on the first generation of Nokia Windows Phones. While the market hasn’t shown much appetite for Windows phone thus far, a good family of devices might be able to slow the loss trajectory and position the combined team for the up-for-grabs 3rd spot in the ecosystem. HP’s acquisition of Palm is finally bringing some new products to the market but the lack of an effective ecosystem means lack of traction in 2011. Given that the computing is shifting to mobile devices, we can expect some of the weaker desktop/laptop players will exit the industry. • Tablets are primarily being used in the WiFi mode because the primary use case is indoors and WiFi gives a better (and cheaper) user experience. Once operators start to roll out user-friendly family data plans across multiple devices, we can expect the cellular activation go higher but will still be dominated by WiFi overall. http://www.chetansharma.com 21 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 22. Apple dominates the profits, Android the volume, Nokia falters http://www.chetansharma.com 22 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 23. Mobile Devices are dominating the Computing Ecosystem http://www.chetansharma.com 23 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 24. US leading in smartphone sales http://www.chetansharma.com 24 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 25. Connected devices explosion Source: Mobile Cloud Computing. http://chetansharma.com/mobilecloudcomputing.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 25 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 26. Tablets are primarily WiFi consumption devices right now http://www.chetansharma.com 26 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 27. Competing with iPad http://www.chetansharma.com 27 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 28. Changing Ecosystem Dynamics It is very clear that the ecosystem dynamics can change very quickly, one just can’t take the competitive and friendly forces for granted. In the past, the silos and segments were clearly defined with little overlap. However, over the course of last couple of years, players have been migrating and surfing in segments across the board - from Apple to Visa, from P&G to AT&T, from Facebook to Time Warner, from Google to Best Buy, every company wants to capture the mindshare and piece of the consumer’s pocketbook. The fine line between partners and competitors can get obliterated in a quarter. Apple is competing with Cisco, Comcast is going after AT&T’s business, Visa and Verizon want to be the payment channel of choice, Amazon is gunning for Microsoft’s enterprise business, so on and so forth. One product launch, one acquisition, can change the game in an instant. And this is only the beginning. http://www.chetansharma.com 28 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 29. Competitive Dynamics • The Rule of Three is evident in all major markets. While the percentage market share might vary, on an average, the top 3 control 93% of the market in an given nation. It doesn’t matter if the market is defined by “controlled regulation” like in China, Korea, and Japan or if it is “open market” driven in markets such as the US, UK, and India. Eventually, only top 3 operators control the majority of the market. There are niches that others occupy but they are largely irrelevant to the overall structure and functioning of the mobile market. • Markets such as US and India experienced similar competitive environment in their hyper-growth phase. For the US, this phase was in the nineties-mid-2000s while India has been experiencing the similar environment in the last 3-4 years. In both cases, at the start there are 5-6 players with no more than 25% market share but higher than 10% of the mix but gradually the market forces enable consolidation. Over a period of 18 years, US is settling into a “top 3” operator market. India’s brutal price wars are going to trigger the consolidation in the next 12-24 months and will eventually settle into a structure similar to other markets. • The competitive equilibrium point in the mobile industry seems to when the market shares of the top 3 are 46%:29%:18% respectively with the remaining 7% being allocated to the niche operators. To achieve some semblance of equilibrium in the market the top operator shouldn’t have more than 50% of the market share and the number three player shouldn’t have less than 20%. This helps create enough balance in the market to derive maximum value for the consumer. • Mobile operators will face some hard choices in developing and protecting the role they want to play in a given region and the ecosystem at-large. The strategy they choose will have a direct impact on the expected EBITDA margins, investment required over the long-haul, how investors view them, and on the competitive landscape of the country. Given, the fast pace of globalization, new rules and trends might emerge over the course of this decade that further define “communications” and “computing” as we know it. http://www.chetansharma.com 29 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 30. Competitive Landscape in Major Markets Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets. http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 30 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 31. Global Mobile Competitive Index Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets. http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 31 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 32. Eventually all markets consolidate to top 3 Source: Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets. http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 32 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 34. Mobile Apps and Services Mobile is fundamentally reshaping how we as consumers spend from housing and healthcare to entertainment and travel, from food and drinks to communication and transportation. Mobile not only influences purchase behavior but also post purchase opinions. When the share button is literally a second away, consumers are willingly sharing more information than ever before. Mobile is thus helping close the nirvana gap for brands and advertisers who seek to connect advertising to actual transactions. The long-term battle is however for owning the context of the users. Having the best knowledge about the user to help drive the transaction is the simply the most valuable currency of commerce. http://www.chetansharma.com 34 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 35. Mobile impacts all purchase funnels http://www.chetansharma.com 35 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 36. Context – the most valuable currency in mobile Demographics/Explicit Profile Interests/Implicit Profile Browsing, Watching, Previewing, Flipping Sensor data Purchasing, Payments User Intent Communications Location Trusted Concierge Presence Search (Local, Online, Media) Physiological parameters Knowledge Transactions DRIVES (about User) (from User) Calendar User Experience Address Book Gifting Social Community Trusted Advisor Advertising Intellectual Community M2M Pricing Preferences Security/Authorization Devices in the vicinity Big Opportunities in becoming the trusted 3 Party Sources rd Concierge/Advisor to the individual user http://www.chetansharma.com 36 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 37. Smartphones are enabling Offdeck to dominate app revenue http://www.chetansharma.com 37 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 39. Mobile Data Traffic Growth • In most western markets, data traffic is doubling YOY • Sweden, US, Hong Kong, Japan, and Denmark make the top 5 in terms of MB consumed per capita • A Multi-pronged approach is needed to have a sustainable strategy long term http://www.chetansharma.com 39 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 40. Only a holistic strategy to deal with data tsunami can help the operators long-term • As a result of the data tsunami, there are two types of opportunities that are being created, one that take advantage of the data being generated in a way that enhances the user experience and provides value and the other in technologies that help manage the traffic data that will continue to grow exponentially. • To be able to stay ahead of the demand, significant planning needs to go in to deal with the bits and bytes that are already exploding. New technical and business solutions will be needed to manage the growth and profit from the services. Relying on only one solution won’t be an effective strategy to manage rising data demand. A holistic approach to managing data traffic is needed and our analysis shows that the cost structure can be reduced by more than half if a suite of solutions are deployed vs. a single dimensional approach and thus bringing the hockey stick curves of data cost more in line with the revenues and thus preserving the margins. • The decision making process within the operator organizations will need to be streamlined as well. Operators should also consider creating a senior post which focuses on both the cost side and the solution side so they can devise and institute a sustainable long-term policy and keep the margins healthy. http://www.chetansharma.com 40 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 41. Mobile data traffic growing faster than online traffic, doubling Y/Y Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 41 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 42. Margin preservation key to all operator strategies http://www.chetansharma.com 42 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 43. Managing data margins will be top priority for all operators 50% m iu Philippines br ili Japan qu cE ffi ra -T 40% ue en Data as % of Services v Re Australia China Revenues Indonesia US UK New Zealand 30% Singapore Hong Kong Netherlands Germany © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011 Italy Sweden Switzerland Mexico Malaysia France Portugal 20% Canada Denmark Korea Finland Russia Spain Brazil South Africa India 10% Argentina 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Data as % of Overall Network Traffic Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 43 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 44. Management of Data Requires Multiple Strategies Radio Access Network Core Network Mobile Backhaul Copper 2G Core Network Microwave 3G Fiber RNC SGSN GGSN 4G Light Internet Services Networks Offloading Traffic Optimization Offloading Traffic WiFi/FemtoCell Compression/Optimization Compression/Optimization of Data Traffic Policy Management Source: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era 2nd Edition http://chetansharma.com/yottabyteera2.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 44 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 45. INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY WILL REMAIN KEY TO LONG-TERM PRODUCT AND COMPETITIVE STRATEGY SUCCESS
  • 46. IP is critical to long-term product strategy • The IP tussles are playing out as expected • Players with strong IP portfolios will be able to command better negotiating positions, new revenue streams, competitive positioning over the long-term • On average mobile companies file patents 1.7 times more in the US vs. Europe • Mobile Patent Leaders in US: IBM, Microsoft, Samsung • Mobile Patent Leaders in Europe: Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia, Samsung • Mobile Patent Leaders in Infrastructure: Samsung, Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson • Mobile Patent Leaders in Device/Software: Nokia, IBM, Microsoft • Mobile Patent Leaders in Service Providers: AT&T, NTT DoCoMo, Sprint • Top 20 control 1/3rd of the total mobile communications patent pool http://www.chetansharma.com 46 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 47. Patent Power Rankings – Mobile Communications Related Issued Patents 1993-2011 Rank US Europe US+Europe 1 IBM Alcatel-Lucent Samsung 2 Microsoft Nokia Nokia 3 Samsung Samsung Alcatel-Lucent 4 Nokia Sony IBM 5 Motorola Ericsson Ericsson 6 Ericsson RIM Microsoft 7 Intel Siemens Sony 8 Sony NTT DoCoMo Motorola 9 Alcatel-Lucent Fujitsu Qualcomm 10 AT&T Qualcomm Siemens Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesn’t take a look at the quality or the value of the patents http://www.chetansharma.com 47 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 48. Patent Power Rankings – Mobile Communications Related Issued Patents 1993-2011 Rank OEM/Software Infrastructure Service Provider 1 Nokia Samsung AT&T 2 IBM Alcatel-Lucent NTT DoCoMo 3 Microsoft Ericsson Sprint 4 Sony Qualcomm Orange 5 Motorola Siemens Deutsche Telekom 6 Intel NEC Verizon 7 RIM LG British Telecom 8 HP Fujitsu Swisscom 9 Oracle Cisco Telecom Italia 10 SAP Broadcom SK Telecom Based on an estimation of Mobile Communications Related Patents that have been granted by The USPTO and the EPO. This assessment doesn’t take a look at the quality or the value of the patents http://www.chetansharma.com 48 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 49. Integration of IP with product strategy is essential for competitiveness in mobile NUMERIC ANALYSIS Improve your PPQ by tight integration with product SUBJECTIVE Patent Portfolio Quotient™ ANALYSIS f(Σ) (PPQ) strategy PATENT PROGRAM ANALYSIS R&D, Other Sources Ideation Market Product Design and Public Disclosure Requirements Requirements Development © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2011 Licensing IP competitive and IP Analysis IP Protection Process IP Management risk assessment IP driven Product Development Cycle Source: What is your Patent Portfolio Quotient? http://chetansharma.com/patentportfolioquotient.htm http://www.chetansharma.com 49 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 50. WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2H 2011
  • 51. What to expect in 2H 2011 • More Tiering, faster pace of change of plans. More options, family data plans • Cost reduction is as important as revenue generation. More players will align their value-chains and cost structures • Radios will start connecting the digital world with the physical world with significant disruption opportunity • Mobile Payment Networks will remain intact for the near future as the ecosystem largely focuses on building value on top of the existing exchange platforms • The intersection of Social, Location, Identity, and Gaming is creating new opportunities • With connectivity becoming pervasive, mobile will fundamentally start to alter the legacy infrastructure – retail, health, education, energy, computing, travel, entertainment • Significant tablet adoption in the enterprise directly impacting the traditional computer manufacturers • Both HTML5 and Apps will continue to grow, the relevancy to any given application will depend on the reach and economics requirements • Mobile data growth will double again in 2011. Significant opportunities in managed and understanding of mobile data growth • Regulators will need to evolve to keep up with the trend to keep their nation globally competitive • IP will continue to surface as a key product strategy tool for players in the ecosystem • Significant progress in emerging areas like mHealth, mPayments will come from the developing world while the western countries get mired in regulatory and legacy mess http://www.chetansharma.com 51 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 52. MOBILE FUTURE FORWARD MOBILE THOUGHT-LEADERSHIP SUMMIT
  • 53. Connected Universe. Unlimited Opportunities. http://www.mobilefutureforward.com http://www.chetansharma.com 53 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 54. Exceptional Speakers. Actionable Insights. • Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Mobility • Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave • Gibu Thomas, SVP - Online/Mobile, Walmart • Kris Rinne, SVP - Networks, AT&T Mobility • Charlie Herrin, SVP - Products and Technology, • Mike Mulica, President, Synchronoss Technologies Comcast • Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media • Jeremiah Zinn, EVP, MTV • Rob Glaser, Partner, Accel • Sanjiv Ahuja, CEO, LightSquared • Stephen Bye, CTO, Sprint • Steve Mollenkopf, EVP and Group President, • Suja Chandrasekaran, CIO, Timberland Qualcomm • Will Hsu, Chief Product Officer, AT&T Interactive • Danny Bowman, President - Connected Devices, Sprint • Ken Wirth, President, Alcatel Lucent Wireless Nextel • Abhi Ingle, VP – Advanced Mobility, AT&T Wireless • David Messenger, EVP, Head - Online/Mobile, American Express • Amit Gupta, SVP and CTO, INQMobile • Prof. Cliff Nass, Human Computer Interaction, • Carlos Domingo, CEO, Telefonica I&D Stanford University • Matt Oomen, President, Reliance Communications • Jason MacKenzie, President, HTC-Americas • Braxton Woodham, Head of Engineering, AVOS • Erik Moreno, SVP, Fox • John SanGiovanni, Cofounder, Zumobi • Hank Skorny, Chief Strategy Officer, Real Networks • Bob Gessel, VP/Head -Tech/Network Strategy, Ericsson • Jerry Batt, CIO, PulteGroup • Subba Rao, former CEO, Tata DoCoMo • Jay Emmet, GM, OpenMarket • Dale Nitschke, former President, Target • Janet Schijns, VP, Verizon Wireless • Mark Rolston, Chief Creative Officer, Frog Design • Mikael Back, VP – Products, Ericsson …. and many more http://www.chetansharma.com 54 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 55. Discussions to inform your strategy • Is 4G a Game Changer? • Innovation at the Edges • Mobile Payments and Commerce • Disruption is in the air • Mobile Data Services from the Prism of the CIOs • Solving the 50 year Spectrum Crunch • Managing the Network Growth • Opportunities in the Emerging Markets • The Universe of Connected Devices • Analytics - How to Collect, Manage, and Use Data? • Multi-modal Interactions - How Consumers Adapt? • At the Intersection of Social, Mobile, Commerce, Content • Battle for the Home – playing in the n-screen world • What do Developers Want? • A Smarter Planet - The Role of Mobile in Enhancing Lifestyles and in Making Everyday Decisions • Drivers for New Sources of Revenue • Role of Regulations - Spectrum, Privacy, Net-Neutrality • Mobile Cloud Computing • Monetizing the network • From 3 Screens to Multi-screens • Mobile Universe in 2020 http://www.chetansharma.com 55 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011
  • 56. We look forward to hearing from you Chetan Sharma Mobile Future Forward chetan@chetansharma.com info@mobilefutureforward.com TW: @chetansharma TW: @mfutureforward http://www.chetansharma.com http://www.mobilefutureforward.com Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits. http://www.chetansharma.com 56 © Copyright 2011, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 7/2011