2012 mobile industry_predictions_survey

2012 Mobile Industry
Predictions Survey

Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.

http://www.chetansharma.com 1 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is prohibited. 1/2012

2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey

First things first. From all of us at Chetan Sharma Consulting, we wish you and yours a very happy,
healthy, and prosperous 2012. My thanks to all who participated in our 2012 Mobile Predictions
Annual Survey. It gives our community an insider’s view of trends.
2011 was a terrific year for the mobile industry. With all its ups and down, consumers embraced
devices, applications, services, and technology with more gusto than ever before. In the waning
hours of 2011, we crossed the 6 billion subscriptions milestone. While the first billion took 19
years, this last billion only took 15 months.
Smartphones are selling like hot cakes. We estimate that by the end of Q4 2011, over 60% of the
devices sold in the US were smartphones and over 30% of the global sales were for the evolved
brethren of the primordial featurephones. Sparked by insatiable consumer demand for mobile
data, LTE and HSPA+ networks are sprouting all over the planet with US leading the charge for
broadband deployment.
Our annual survey is a way for us to engage our community on the trends for the next year. We
put some of the pressing questions to our colleagues and industry leaders. We are able to glean
some valuable insights from their choices and comments, some tangible shifts, and get a sense of
what’s to come. Executives, developers, and insiders (n=150) from leading mobile companies and
startups from across the value chain and around the world participated to help see what 2012
might bring to keep us on our toes. What makes this survey unique is that it draws upon the
collective wisdom of folks who are at the center of the mobile evolution.

http://www.chetansharma.com 2 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012

2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey

Fifteen names were randomly drawn for the limited edition of the Mobile Future Forward 2011 book. The winners are:

• Tor Bjorn Minde, Head of Ericsson Labs, Ericsson
• Sunder Somasundaram, Industry Solutions Practice Director, AT&T
• C. Enrique Ortiz, Mobile Technologist, About Mobility
• Russell Buckley, CMO, Eagle Eye
• Marianne Marck, VP – Engineering, Starbucks
• John Foster, President, ZED USA
• Angel Luis Saez, Sr. Director, Orange Spain
• Dilip Mistry, Senior Director, Microsoft Asia
• Phyllis Reuther, Advanced Analytics Lab, Sprint
• Gene Keenan, VP of Mobile, Isobar
• Elizabeth Day, Director of Finance, Trilogy International
• Alan Cole, Research Staff Member, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center
• X J Wang, VP – GM China, Vesta Corp
• Michelle Lee, Director, SK Telecom
• Hemant Chandak, Sr. Analyst, Cisco Systems

Thanks again to everyone who contributed. We will be calling on you again next year. It has been a terrific year for us at Chetan Sharma Consulting and we
are looking forward to an engaging and productive 2012.

Be well, do good work, and stay in touch.

Thanks and with warm wishes,

Your feedback is always welcome.

Thanks
Chetan


Participant Composition


Biggest Mobile Story of 2011

What was most newsworthy in Mobile 2011?

The rise and domination of Android

Passing away of Steve Jobs

Others

Introduction of Kindle Fire

IP battles

Mobile M&As and alliances

Regulatory Tussles

Privacy and Security debates

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%


Biggest stories of 2012

What will be the biggest mobile stories of 2012?
Continued growth of mobile data around the world

Amazon's entry into the mobile arena

Microsoft/Nokia resurgence

4G deployment and marketing battles

Google and Android

Security and Privacy

Apple Tablets and iPhone

Facebook Mobile Platform

Others

Operator and/or OEM M&A

Policy and Regulation

Network overloading and collapse

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%


Most Open Mobile Player

Who will be the most open player in the
mobile ecosystem in 2012?
80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Nokia Carriers Other OEMs Apple Amazon Facebook Microsoft Google

2009 2010 2011 2012


Apps and 4G

What applications will define 4G?

Video

Cloud Computing

Access (just more bandwidth)

Games

Music

Health and Wellness

Others

Telematics

Advertising

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%


Apps/Services in 2012

What will be the breakthrough category
in mobile in 2012?
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2011 2012


Apps in 2012

What will be the most popular
consumer applications in 2012?
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Location Mobile NFC based Mobile Messaging Mobile Mobile Mobile Deals and
Based Health services Music Advertising Augmented Payments Coupons
Services Monitoring Reality and
Commerce

Developing Developed


Tablets: 2012-13

Which will be the most dominant (unit sales) tablet
platform in 2 years?
Others
Windows 3%
8%

iOS
45%

Android
44%


M&As in 2012

Who will make the biggest mobile
acquistion in 2012?
Microsoft

Google

Operators

Amazon

Facebook

Apple

Oracle

Infrastructure Providers

Others

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%


Apps vs. Web

How will the "Apps vs. Mobile Web"
debate shape up in 2012?
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Apps will continue to Mobile Web will start to Both will live in peace Both are one and the
dominate become more relevant and harmony same

2011 2012


Mobile Payment/Commerce in 2012

Who will define the mobile
payment/commerce space?
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

2011 2012


Solutions for mobile data growth

Which solutions will gain the most traction for
managing mobile data broadband consumption?

4G

Tiered pricing

Mobile offload

Optimization

Policy management

Backhaul upgrades

Spectrum

Others

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%


Mobile Data Revenues in 2012

Which category will generate the most mobile data
revenue in 2012?
100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
North America Western India/China Japan/Korea Rest of Asia Africa South America
Europe

Messaging Access Apps Advertising


Mobile Cloud Computing in 2012

What will help mobile cloud computing gain traction
in 2012?

5%
9%
27%
Games
Processing
19% Apps
Media
Storage
Enterprise

20%

20%


Mobile disruption in 2012

Which enterprise segment will mobile
impact the most?

Retail

Health

Field Force

Sales

Privacy

Education

Others

Energy

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%


Mobile App Revenue Models in 2012

What will be the dominant revenue model for apps in
2012?

Combination

In-app

Advertising

Paid

Subscriptions

Virtual Goods

Others

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%


Mobile Payments in 2012

What mode of mobile payments will get traction
in NA and WE in 2012?

Proximity based

Selling of physical goods on mobile

Selling of non-digital goods on mobile

P2P

Remittance

No meaningful traction

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%


Mobile Devices in 2012

What will be the most successful non-mobile-phone
category in 2012?

Tablet

eReader

M2M

Camera

Telematics

Others

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%


What does the future hold?

Which of the following are likely to happen in the near
future?

Tablets become the leading Enterprise IT device

Asian operator acquires a major European operator

Major retailers start to shut down due to competition
from e/m-tailers

Mobile voting becomes available in major countries

Humans discover water on another planet

Another significant mobile OS emerges

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%


Regulatory To-Do List in 2012

Which areas will feel the most impact of
Regulators in 2012?

Net Neutrality

Competitiveness

Exclusivity

Pricing

Network management

Subsidy

None of the above

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%


Mobile Person of the Year

Who was the mobile person of the year?
Steve Jobs

Jeff Bezos

Angry Birds

Andy Rubin

Mark Zuckerberg

Tim Cook

Others

Paul Jacobs

Sanjiv Ahuja

Dan Hesse

Glenn Lurie

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%


Save The Date

Sept, 2012
Seattle

Ever wondered what the future of mobile looks like?

Contact info@mobilefutureforward.com for
sponsorship and speaking opportunities

We look forward to hearing from you

Chetan Sharma Mobile Future Forward
chetan@chetansharma.com info@mobilefutureforward.com
TW: @chetansharma TW: @mfutureforward
http://www.chetansharma.com http://www.mobilefutureforward.com

Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.


2012 mobile industry_predictions_survey

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