2010 Grubb & Ellis Triangle Real Estate Forecast
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Our company\'s annual forecast for the Triangle\'s Commercial Real Estate Industry and what truly happened in 2009.
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2010 Grubb & Ellis Triangle Real Estate Forecast
- 1. OFFICE INDUSTRIAL RETAIL INVESTMENT 2010 REAL ESTATE FORECAST
- 2. OFFICE INDUSTRIAL RETAIL INVESTMENT 2010 REAL ESTATE FORECAST
- 10. *Vacancy includes sublease space Sources: Grubb & Ellis, Highwoods Properties OFFICE
- 11. Source: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina Sustained period of job growth required for vacancy to fall notably – lagging indicator. OFFICE
- 12. Source: Grubb & Ellis 2009 increase was an aberration. Look for decrease in 2010. OFFICE
- 13. Sources: Grubb & Ellis, Highwoods Properties Construction now at lowest level in more than a decade. OFFICE
- 23. OFFICE INDUSTRIAL RETAIL INVESTMENT 2010 REAL ESTATE FORECAST
- 27. Source: Triangle Business Journal , Grubb & Ellis INDUSTRIAL
- 34. OFFICE INDUSTRIAL RETAIL INVESTMENT 2010 REAL ESTATE FORECAST
- 39. Retailers Closing Locations RETAIL
- 40. New and Expanding Retailers RETAIL
- 41. Source: Triangle Business Journal , Grubb & Ellis RETAIL
- 46. OFFICE INDUSTRIAL RETAIL INVESTMENT 2010 REAL ESTATE FORECAST
- 50. Sources: Real Capital Analytics, County Revenue Offices, Grubb & Ellis INVESTMENT
- 53. Source: Real Capital Analytics, Grubb & Ellis INVESTMENT
- 58. OFFICE INDUSTRIAL RETAIL INVESTMENT CONCLUSION 2010 REAL ESTATE FORECAST
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Correct on vacancy for most of the year… overall flat and Class A up sharply. Seizing up of financial markets in October changed outlook dramatically and send overall vacancy up sharply at the end of the year. Absorption was up as predicted but would have been higher had the bottom not fallen out in 4Q.
- Correct on vacancy for most of the year… overall flat and Class A up sharply. Seizing up of financial markets in October changed outlook dramatically and send overall vacancy up sharply at the end of the year. Absorption was up as predicted but would have been higher had the bottom not fallen out in 4Q.
- Correct on vacancy for most of the year… overall flat and Class A up sharply. Seizing up of financial markets in October changed outlook dramatically and send overall vacancy up sharply at the end of the year. Absorption was up as predicted but would have been higher had the bottom not fallen out in 4Q.
- Correct on vacancy for most of the year… overall flat and Class A up sharply. Seizing up of financial markets in October changed outlook dramatically and send overall vacancy up sharply at the end of the year. Absorption was up as predicted but would have been higher had the bottom not fallen out in 4Q.
- There was some good news as well!
- Absorption will be down significantly in 2009 as space comes back to the market. Construction completions may help to keep it in positive territory.
- After last recession, unemployment never got back to previous lows. For a time, unemployment was too low… less than 2% locally. Last two recessions have been followed by so-called “jobless recoveries”. Triangle is in better shape than U.S. and State. US = 7.2% NC = 8.7% Dur = 6.1% Ral = 6.5% North Carolina is one of the hardest hit states due to manufacturing losses, particularly in rural areas.
- Asking rates have risen dramatically in the last three years. Started to flatten in late 2008. Will be flat to slightly lower in 2009. Concessions will arrive before reduced face rates.
- Construction activity has surged recently, but did not reach levels witnessed prior to the last downturn.
- Many of the year’s largest transactions occurred in new construction, so we have combined the construction/transaction slides. RBC – Triangle’s tallest building and another important step in downtown’s revitalization. Two instances of companies purchasing buildings for occupancy.
- Many of the year’s largest transactions occurred in new construction, so we have combined the construction/transaction slides. RBC – Triangle’s tallest building and another important step in downtown’s revitalization. Two instances of companies purchasing buildings for occupancy.
- Many of the year’s largest transactions occurred in new construction, so we have combined the construction/transaction slides. RBC – Triangle’s tallest building and another important step in downtown’s revitalization. Two instances of companies purchasing buildings for occupancy.
- Many of the year’s largest transactions occurred in new construction, so we have combined the construction/transaction slides. RBC – Triangle’s tallest building and another important step in downtown’s revitalization. Two instances of companies purchasing buildings for occupancy.
- Many of the year’s largest transactions occurred in new construction, so we have combined the construction/transaction slides. RBC – Triangle’s tallest building and another important step in downtown’s revitalization. Two instances of companies purchasing buildings for occupancy.
- Many of the year’s largest transactions occurred in new construction, so we have combined the construction/transaction slides. RBC – Triangle’s tallest building and another important step in downtown’s revitalization. Two instances of companies purchasing buildings for occupancy.
- Many of the year’s largest transactions occurred in new construction, so we have combined the construction/transaction slides. RBC – Triangle’s tallest building and another important step in downtown’s revitalization. Two instances of companies purchasing buildings for occupancy.
- We have already seen projects delayed… Wade III, Charter Square, etc. Both unemployment and commercial real estate leasing are lagging indicators. The economy may improve in 2009, but the CRE market will not recover before sometime in 2010.
- Absorption fell more than anticipated into negative territory. Rent rates for warehouse space rose as expected.
- Absorption fell more than anticipated into negative territory. Rent rates for warehouse space rose as expected.
- Market’s small size means vacancy rises and falls quickly with a handful of significant vacancies/leases.
- Construction has already been limited for the last several years… unlike last downturn. Will help lessen the impact.
- Construction has already been limited for the last several years… unlike last downturn. Will help lessen the impact.
- As with other sectors, the fourth quarter changed the outlook considerably. Vacancy slight above our projected high… and will keep rising. Construction completions were minimal, but there is a lot underway. Significant increase in store closings, not just the chains we’ve all heard about, but even more so the mom & pop retailers.
- As with other sectors, the fourth quarter changed the outlook considerably. Vacancy slight above our projected high… and will keep rising. Construction completions were minimal, but there is a lot underway. Significant increase in store closings, not just the chains we’ve all heard about, but even more so the mom & pop retailers.
- As with other sectors, the fourth quarter changed the outlook considerably. Vacancy slight above our projected high… and will keep rising. Construction completions were minimal, but there is a lot underway. Significant increase in store closings, not just the chains we’ve all heard about, but even more so the mom & pop retailers.
- Not all of these have had an impact on the Triangle to date, but most have. 6 Circuit City stores and 7 Linens ‘n Things closing locally.
- Our demographics are still strong. There ARE retailers expanding in this market, and we will continue to attract new retailers, even through the downturn.
- Vacancy already at a record high for this market and could surge close to 10 percent by 2010. Will probably see negative absorption next year, not something we see often in this retail market.
- Triangle’s population growth will fuel a healthy retail sector in the long-term, but there’s more space than there is demand in the short term. 2007 Pop ext. at 1.5 million.
- Construction will drop off significantly once the current pipeline empties.
- We are already hearing about mixed-used projects cutting back on the amount of retail space. Vacancy will rise to a new high in this market in 2009. Above 9 percent, may approach 10 percent for the first time.
- We are already hearing about mixed-used projects cutting back on the amount of retail space. Vacancy will rise to a new high in this market in 2009. Above 9 percent, may approach 10 percent for the first time.
- Volume was still stronger than most people probably realize, thanks to multi-family sales. Required up-front cash is more than double what it was. 35 – 45%. This is probably the biggest challenge would-be investors face. Prices have come down, but not drastically as in some markets.
- Volume was still stronger than most people probably realize, thanks to multi-family sales. Required up-front cash is more than double what it was. 35 – 45%. This is probably the biggest challenge would-be investors face. Prices have come down, but not drastically as in some markets.
- By historical standards, 2008 was still a strong year. 2009 will be sluggish, but we may see an uptick in activity late in the year if credit markets thaw.
- Multi-family far out paced all other product types, followed by office.
- Owners, particularly of retail centers, may resort to fire sales if they cannot re-finance. Some lenders may not be willing at all. Others may require significant cash. Many investors still anxious to get into or expand in the Triangle due to long-term growth prospects. Excellent opportunity for those with cash.
- Owners, particularly of retail centers, may resort to fire sales if they cannot re-finance. Some lenders may not be willing at all. Others may require significant cash. Many investors still anxious to get into or expand in the Triangle due to long-term growth prospects. Excellent opportunity for those with cash.
- Owners, particularly of retail centers, may resort to fire sales if they cannot re-finance. Some lenders may not be willing at all. Others may require significant cash. Many investors still anxious to get into or expand in the Triangle due to long-term growth prospects. Excellent opportunity for those with cash.