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Complete Web Monitoring:
Getting the whole picture
@acroll
www.bitcurrent.com
www.watchingwebsites.com
Everybody has goals.




              http://www.flickr.com/photos/itsgreg/446061432/
Organic                                  Ad
                       Campaigns
     search                                 network       $

               1           1            1
                                                      Advertiser site

                         Visitor        2                  O er        3       $


                           8                             Upselling 4




                                                                                   Abandonment
                         Reach
                                                  5    Purchase step           $

                         Mailing,
                         alerts,                       Purchase step           $
               9       promotions
         $
                                                      Conversion $

Disengagement                       7
                                                        Enrolment          6


Impact on site
 $      Positive   $     Negative
Bad
                                                                                   $
                                                                  4        content
                     Social              Search
 Invitation
                  network link           results
                                                                  4           Good
                                                                             content
                        1                                                                 $
              1                      1
                                                               Collaboration site
                                                   2
                      Visitor                      Content creation          Moderation

 $
                                                                       3 Spam & trolls

                                 $
                                                       Engagement 5

      Viral
                                6                      Social graph
     spread

                                                                       7

                                                             Disengagement $
Impact on site
$      Positive   $   Negative
Enterprise subscriber $

                                         1

                              End user (employee) $
                                                            Refund $
                                         2

Renewal, upsell,                                                SLA
   reference                        SaaS site                violation
                                   Performance
                                  Good       Bad        3
                                                             Helpdesk         Support
                                                                          5           $
                                     Usability               escalation        costs
       7
                                                        4
                                  Good       Bad


                                   Productivity
                                  Good       Bad


                                                 6

                                         Churn $
Impact on site
 $    Positive     $   Negative
$



                                     Media site
     Enrolment                         Targeted
                                 2   embedded ad       5
                                                               $
           6                                       1
                                                                 Ad
                      Visitor
                                                               network
           4
                                 3                         5
                                      Advertiser   $
Departure $                              site


Impact on site
 $     Positive   $   Negative
Inside and out
Adoption is the new integration
1970:
The right
hardware
1970:
The right
hardware


       Client-server
       architectures
1970:             1980:
The right       The right
hardware       application


       Client-server
       architectures
1970:             1980:
The right       The right
hardware       application


       Client-server        Vendor
       architectures      dominance
1970:             1980:         1990:
The right       The right      The right
hardware       application    integration


       Client-server        Vendor
       architectures      dominance
1970:             1980:         1990:
The right       The right      The right
hardware       application    integration


       Client-server        Vendor
                                        Web, SaaS, XML
       architectures      dominance
1970:             1980:         1990:          2000:
The right       The right      The right      The right
hardware       application    integration     adoption


       Client-server        Vendor
                                        Web, SaaS, XML
       architectures      dominance
1970:             1980:         1990:          2000:
The right       The right      The right      The right
hardware       application    integration     adoption


       Client-server        Vendor
                                        Web, SaaS, XML
       architectures      dominance




                                                  Enterprise
                                            application adoption is
                                               the new frontier
Complete Web Monitoring
The big picture
“Hard” data

  Analytics         Usability     Performability
(what did they   (how did they    (could they do
  do on the       interact with      what they
    site?)             it?)         wanted to?)

          Complete Web Monitoring
 Community            VoC          Competition
 (what were       (what were      (what are they
they saying?)        their           up to?)
                 motivations?)

                 “Soft” data
“Hard” data

  Analytics         Usability     Performability
(what did they   (how did they    (could they do
  do on the       interact with      what they
    site?)             it?)         wanted to?)

          Complete Web Monitoring
 Community            VoC          Competition
 (what were       (what were      (what are they
they saying?)        their           up to?)
                 motivations?)

                 “Soft” data
Analytics is the
measurement of movement
towards those goals.




                http://www.flickr.com/photos/itsgreg/446061432/
ATTENTION




SEARCHES
 TWEETS
MENTIONS
ADS SEEN
ATTENTION




SEARCHES
 TWEETS     NUMBER
            OF VISITS
MENTIONS
ADS SEEN
ATTENTION




SEARCHES
 TWEETS     NUMBER
            OF VISITS
MENTIONS
ADS SEEN      LOSS
            BOUNCE
             RATE
ATTENTION

              NEW
            VISITORS

SEARCHES    GROWTH

 TWEETS     NUMBER
            OF VISITS
MENTIONS
ADS SEEN      LOSS
            BOUNCE
             RATE
ATTENTION               ENGAGEMENT

              NEW
            VISITORS

SEARCHES    GROWTH
                        PAGES
 TWEETS     NUMBER
                         PER
            OF VISITS
MENTIONS                 VISIT
ADS SEEN      LOSS
            BOUNCE
             RATE
ATTENTION               ENGAGEMENT

              NEW
            VISITORS

SEARCHES    GROWTH
                        PAGES    TIME
 TWEETS     NUMBER
                         PER      ON
            OF VISITS
MENTIONS                 VISIT   SITE
ADS SEEN      LOSS
            BOUNCE
             RATE
ATTENTION               ENGAGEMENT      CONVERSION

              NEW
            VISITORS

SEARCHES    GROWTH                      CONVERSION
                        PAGES    TIME      RATE
 TWEETS     NUMBER
            OF VISITS
                         PER      ON       x
MENTIONS                 VISIT   SITE
                                          GOAL
ADS SEEN      LOSS                        VALUE
            BOUNCE
             RATE
Visits

  Shopping cart

Payment options

   Conversions
Visits

  Shopping cart
                   KPIs
Payment options

   Conversions
Visits

  Shopping cart

Payment options

   Conversions
Visits

  Shopping cart

Payment options

   Conversions
Visits

  Shopping cart

Payment options

   Conversions
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mrmoorey/160654236
http://www.flickr.com/photos/duncan/1252272164/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/intherough/3573333256/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jetheriot/648950773/
“Hard” data

  Analytics          Usability    Performability
(what did they   (how did they    (could they do
  do on the       interact with      what they
    site?)             it?)         wanted to?)

          Complete Web Monitoring
 Community            VoC          Competition
 (what were       (what were      (what are they
they saying?)        their           up to?)
                 motivations?)

                  “Soft” data
http://www.flickr.com/photos/trekkyandy/189717616/
Yes
Perceptual information
                         (did I see it?)




                  No
                                           No               Affordance                  Yes
                                                (was I supposed to interact with it?)         Adapted from Gaver (1991)
Yes

                                                   False
Perceptual information


                                                affordance
                         (did I see it?)




                  No
                                           No               Affordance                  Yes
                                                (was I supposed to interact with it?)         Adapted from Gaver (1991)
Yes

                                                                           Seen
                                                   False
                                                                       (perceptible)
Perceptual information


                                                affordance
                                                                        affordance
                         (did I see it?)




                  No
                                           No               Affordance                  Yes
                                                (was I supposed to interact with it?)         Adapted from Gaver (1991)
Yes

                                                                           Seen
                                                   False
                                                                       (perceptible)
Perceptual information


                                                affordance
                                                                        affordance
                         (did I see it?)




                                                  Correct
                                                 rejection


                  No
                                           No                Affordance                 Yes
                                                (was I supposed to interact with it?)         Adapted from Gaver (1991)
Yes

                                                                           Seen
                                                   False
                                                                       (perceptible)
Perceptual information


                                                affordance
                                                                        affordance
                         (did I see it?)




                                                                          Unseen
                                                  Correct
                                                                         (hidden)
                                                 rejection
                                                                        affordance

                  No
                                           No                Affordance                 Yes
                                                (was I supposed to interact with it?)         Adapted from Gaver (1991)
“Hard” data

  Analytics         Usability     Performability
(what did they   (how did they    (could they do
  do on the       interact with      what they
    site?)             it?)         wanted to?)

          Complete Web Monitoring
 Community            VoC          Competition
 (what were       (what were      (what are they
they saying?)        their           up to?)
                 motivations?)


                  “Soft” data
“Hard” data

  Analytics         Usability     Performability
(what did they   (how did they    (could they do
  do on the       interact with      what they
    site?)             it?)         wanted to?)

          Complete Web Monitoring
  Community           VoC          Competition
 (what were       (what were      (what are they
they saying?)        their           up to?)
                 motivations?)

                 “Soft” data
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ockam/3364234970/
Groups and
                      Blogs
 mailing lists

   Forums             Wikis


Real-time chat    Micromessaging

                   Social news
Social networks
                   aggregators
Search

Anonymous, but
little insight into
what’s going on
 behind closed
        doors
Search                  Join

Anonymous, but          Permission-
little insight into   based access to
what’s going on       activity (friends,
 behind closed            forums)
        doors
Search                  Join             Moderate

Anonymous, but          Permission-             Some
little insight into   based access to       administrative
what’s going on       activity (friends,   control, but you
 behind closed            forums)           have to earn it
        doors
Search                  Join             Moderate               Run

Anonymous, but          Permission-             Some          Complete control
little insight into   based access to       administrative    and visibility but
what’s going on       activity (friends,   control, but you     no guarantee
 behind closed            forums)           have to earn it   anyone will show
        doors                                                        up
“Hard” data

  Analytics         Usability     Performability
(what did they   (how did they    (could they do
  do on the       interact with      what they
    site?)             it?)         wanted to?)

          Complete Web Monitoring
 Community            VoC          Competition
 (what were       (what were        (what are
they saying?)        their        they up to?)
                 motivations?)

                 “Soft” data
“Hard” data

  Analytics         Usability     Performability
(what did they   (how did they     (could they
  do on the       interact with   do what they
    site?)             it?)        wanted to?)

          Complete Web Monitoring
 Community            VoC          Competition
 (what were       (what were      (what are they
they saying?)        their           up to?)
                 motivations?)

                 “Soft” data
(on which we’ll focus)
Websites
have a dirty
little secret




http://todaystatus.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/ww11-secret.jpg
http://www.inquisitr.com/2097/site-meter-causing-internet-explorer-failure/
Figure 3          Interactive user productivity versus computer response time for human-intensive
                        interactions for system A

      E 600
                -
      3

      T                                                         -"   INTERACTIVE USER PRODUCTIVITY (IUP)
      w
                                                                -HUMAN-INTENSIVE COMPONENT OF IUP
      7                                                              MEASURED DATA (HUMAN-INTENSIVE

      E 500 -
                                                                 A
      z                                                          "   COMPONENT)
      U
      E


      -
      w
      E             0

      >
      -
      >
      -         -
          400
      3
      n
      F
      2
                        0
                            0



          300   -



          200   -




          100   -
                                                                                                 0




            0-                  I             1             I                I               I
                0               1             2             3               4               5
                                                                                  COMPUTER RESPONSE TIME (SI




(1981) A. J. Thadhani, IBM Systems Journal, Volume 20, number 4
10 ms
100 ms
10 ms
1s

100 ms
10 ms
10 s
 1s

100 ms
10 ms
10 s
 1s

100 ms
10 ms
         !   Zzz
http://www.flickr.com/photos/spunter/393793587   http://www.flickr.com/photos/laurenclose/2217307446
Everything is interwoven.
But how do we prove it?
Correlation is not causality.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/roryfinneren/65729247
Chair rentals per day
 50


37.5


 25


12.5


  0
       1      2          3         4          5          6         7          8          9        10


           http://www.rvca.com/anp/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/57226_07+proof+1a+hb+beach+day.jpg
Chair rentals per day
 50


37.5


 25


12.5


  0
       1      2          3         4          5          6         7          8          9        10


           http://www.rvca.com/anp/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/57226_07+proof+1a+hb+beach+day.jpg
http://www.imdb.com/media/rm3768753408/tt0073195
http://www.flickr.com/photos/kapungo/2287237966
Ice cream and drownings
10000


1000


 100


  10


   1
        Ice cream consumption        Drownings
Ice cream and drownings
10000


1000


 100


  10


   1
        Ice cream consumption        Drownings
Ice cream and drownings
10000


1000


 100


  10


   1
        Ice cream consumption        Drownings
http://www.flickr.com/photos/25159787@N07/3766111564
http://www.flickr.com/photos/wheressteve/3284532080
http://www.flickr.com/photos/wtlphotos/1086968783
True causality
10000


1000


 100


  10


   1
        Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
             Ice cream consumption          Drownings   Temperature
True causality
10000


1000


 100


  10


   1
        Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
             Ice cream consumption          Drownings   Temperature
True causality
10000


1000


 100


  10


   1
        Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
             Ice cream consumption          Drownings   Temperature
True causality
10000


1000


 100


  10


   1
        Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
             Ice cream consumption          Drownings   Temperature
http://www.flickr.com/photos/stuttermonkey/57096884
http://www.flickr.com/photos/germanuncut77/3785152581
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fasteddie42/2421039207
Another example
Hockey games cause peeing spikes.
Now we can ask
Does poor performance cause bad KPIs?
Impact of page load time on average daily
                      searches per user


   0%



-0.15%



-0.30%



-0.45%



-0.60%
50ms pre-header   100ms pre-header 200ms post-header   200ms post-ad   400ms post-header
Impact of additional delay on business metrics

   0%



-1.25%



-2.50%



-3.75%



-5.00%

            50            200       500           1000            2000
              Queries/visitor   Query refinement          Revenue/visitor
              Any clicks        Satisfaction
Shopzilla had another angle

•   Big, high-traffic site       •   16 month re-engineering

•   100M impressions a day      •   Page load from 6 seconds
                                    to 1.2
•   8,000 searches a second
                                •   Uptime from 99.65% to
•   20-29M unique visitors a        99.97%
    month
•   100M products               •   10% of previous
                                    hardware needs




                                          http://en.oreilly.com/velocity2009/public/schedule/detail/7709
5-12% increase in revenue.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/spunter/393793587   http://www.flickr.com/photos/laurenclose/2217307446




                               KPIs
VISITOR   ACCELERATOR    WEB
                        SERVER
VISITOR   ACCELERATOR       WEB
                           SERVER
          Decide whether
            to optimize
VISITOR   ACCELERATOR       WEB
                           SERVER
          Decide whether
            to optimize

                           Normal
                           content
VISITOR   ACCELERATOR          WEB
                              SERVER
          Decide whether
            to optimize

                              Normal
                              content

                     Insert
                    segment
                     marker
VISITOR     ACCELERATOR           WEB
                                 SERVER
             Decide whether
               to optimize

                                 Normal
                                 content

                        Insert
          Optimize?    segment
                        marker
VISITOR     ACCELERATOR              WEB
                                    SERVER
             Decide whether
               to optimize

                                    Normal
            Accelerated
                                    content

                           Insert
          Optimize?       segment
                           marker
VISITOR     ACCELERATOR              WEB
                                    SERVER
             Decide whether
               to optimize

                                    Normal
            Accelerated
                                    content

                           Insert
          Optimize?       segment
                           marker


           Unaccelerated
VISITOR       ACCELERATOR              WEB
                                      SERVER
               Decide whether
                 to optimize

                                      Normal
 Receive      Accelerated
                                      content
  page
                             Insert
Process
            Optimize?       segment
scripts
                             marker
  Send
analytics    Unaccelerated
VISITOR        ACCELERATOR              WEB
                                       SERVER
                Decide whether
                  to optimize

                                       Normal
 Receive       Accelerated
                                       content
  page
                              Insert
 Process
             Optimize?       segment
 scripts
                              marker
   Send
 analytics    Unaccelerated




 GOOGLE
ANALYTICS
Traffic levels
                         9,000
Total number of visits




                         6,750



                         4,500
                                  8,505

                         2,250                                      4,740

                            0
                                  Optimized                        Unoptimized

                                              Visitor experience
Bounce rate
                      20
Visits that bounced




                      15



                      10

                           13.38%                            14.35%
                      5



                      0
                           Optimized                        Unoptimized

                                       Visitor experience
% visits marked “new”
% of visits that had no returning cookie


                                           14



                                           11



                                           7                                      13.61%
                                                10.85%
                                           4



                                           0
                                                Optimized                        Unoptimized

                                                            Visitor experience
That means...
                         9000
Value Number of visits




                         6750



                         4500    7,582

                                              4,095
                         2250



                                   923          645
                           0
                                 Optimized   Unoptimized
Average time on site
                         31
Time on site (minutes)




                         23



                         16       30.17
                                                                    23.83
                         8



                         0
                                  Optimized                        Unoptimized

                                              Visitor experience
Pages per visit
                     16
Average pages seen




                     12



                     8      15.64
                                                              11.04
                     4



                     0
                            Optimized                        Unoptimized

                                        Visitor experience
Conversion rate
                                      and order value
                                 20
Difference due to optimization




                                 15



                                 10
                                          16.07
                                 5

                                                           5.51
                                 0
                                       Conversion rate   Order value
This is just one case
  LOTS


   # OF
 VISITS

                OPTIMIZED
     0
          0         VISITOR LATENCY   10,000

Different visitors experienced
different performance levels.
With one outcome
  LOTS


   # OF
 VISITS
                21.58%
     0          BETTER

          0        VISITOR LATENCY        10,000

Right now we have a single experiment,
and a single resulting business impact.
With one outcome
  LOTS

          Best 5%            Worst 5%
   # OF
 VISITS
                    21.58%
     0              BETTER

          0            VISITOR LATENCY   10,000

Visitors who were optimized fall into
a range – the 5th to 95th percentile.
Lots of different results
  LOTS


  $ PER
    DAY


     0
          0        VISITOR LATENCY       10,000

If we have several experiments, we can
understand the relationship better.
Lots of different results
  LOTS        24%



  $ PER
    DAY


     0
          0         VISITOR LATENCY      10,000

If we have several experiments, we can
understand the relationship better.
Lots of different results
  LOTS
                 18%

  $ PER
    DAY


     0
          0        VISITOR LATENCY       10,000

If we have several experiments, we can
understand the relationship better.
Lots of different results
  LOTS


                          14%
  $ PER
    DAY


     0
          0        VISITOR LATENCY       10,000

If we have several experiments, we can
understand the relationship better.
Lots of different results
  LOTS


  $ PER                         12%
    DAY


     0
          0        VISITOR LATENCY       10,000

If we have several experiments, we can
understand the relationship better.
Lots of different results
  LOTS


  $ PER
    DAY
                                         9.5%
     0
          0        VISITOR LATENCY        10,000

If we have several experiments, we can
understand the relationship better.
Lots of different results
  LOTS


  $ PER
    DAY


     0
          0        VISITOR LATENCY       10,000

If we have several experiments, we can
understand the relationship better.
You have your own curve
  LOTS


  $ PER
    DAY


     0
          0        VISITOR LATENCY    10,000

Every web business has a curve like
this hidden inside it.
100,000                                                                      100%
Count (logarithmic)




                                                                                                          Availability (% uptime)
                       10,000
                                                                                                   99%
                        1,000
                                                                                                   98%
                         100
                                                                                                   97%
                          10

                           0                                                                       96%
                                Mon        Tue      Wed      Thu       Fri   Sat         Sun


                                      Visits              Twitter mentions         Blog comments
                                      Conversions         Facebook members         Uptime
“Hard” data

  Analytics         Usability     Performability
(what did they   (how did they    (could they do
  do on the       interact with      what they
    site?)             it?)         wanted to?)

          Complete Web Monitoring
 Community            VoC          Competition
 (what were       (what were      (what are they
they saying?)        their           up to?)
                 motivations?)

                 “Soft” data
Some takeaways
Some takeaways
Myopic silos of monitoring won’t last
Some takeaways
Myopic silos of monitoring won’t last
Outcomes aren’t just e-commerce:
Some takeaways
Myopic silos of monitoring won’t last
Outcomes aren’t just e-commerce:
  Revenue, adoption, productivity, contribution
Some takeaways
Myopic silos of monitoring won’t last
Outcomes aren’t just e-commerce:
  Revenue, adoption, productivity, contribution
Everything needs to tie back to end users and
outcomes
Some takeaways
Myopic silos of monitoring won’t last
Outcomes aren’t just e-commerce:
  Revenue, adoption, productivity, contribution
Everything needs to tie back to end users and
outcomes
Your fastest path to revenue may be performance
improvement
Some takeaways
Myopic silos of monitoring won’t last
Outcomes aren’t just e-commerce:
  Revenue, adoption, productivity, contribution
Everything needs to tie back to end users and
outcomes
Your fastest path to revenue may be performance
improvement
Starting with the end user is a good way to detect and
triage problems in complex environments
Some takeaways
Myopic silos of monitoring won’t last
Outcomes aren’t just e-commerce:
  Revenue, adoption, productivity, contribution
Everything needs to tie back to end users and
outcomes
Your fastest path to revenue may be performance
improvement
Starting with the end user is a good way to detect and
triage problems in complex environments
You don’t know what’s broken where until you look
Thanks!
@acroll
@seanpower
www.watchingwebsites.com

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Complete Web Monitoring slides at Coradiant lunch event April 2010

  • 1. Complete Web Monitoring: Getting the whole picture @acroll www.bitcurrent.com www.watchingwebsites.com
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Everybody has goals. http://www.flickr.com/photos/itsgreg/446061432/
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. Organic Ad Campaigns search network $ 1 1 1 Advertiser site Visitor 2 O er 3 $ 8 Upselling 4 Abandonment Reach 5 Purchase step $ Mailing, alerts, Purchase step $ 9 promotions $ Conversion $ Disengagement 7 Enrolment 6 Impact on site $ Positive $ Negative
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. Bad $ 4 content Social Search Invitation network link results 4 Good content 1 $ 1 1 Collaboration site 2 Visitor Content creation Moderation $ 3 Spam & trolls $ Engagement 5 Viral 6 Social graph spread 7 Disengagement $ Impact on site $ Positive $ Negative
  • 11.
  • 12. Enterprise subscriber $ 1 End user (employee) $ Refund $ 2 Renewal, upsell, SLA reference SaaS site violation Performance Good Bad 3 Helpdesk Support 5 $ Usability escalation costs 7 4 Good Bad Productivity Good Bad 6 Churn $ Impact on site $ Positive $ Negative
  • 13.
  • 14. $ Media site Enrolment Targeted 2 embedded ad 5 $ 6 1 Ad Visitor network 4 3 5 Advertiser $ Departure $ site Impact on site $ Positive $ Negative
  • 15. Inside and out Adoption is the new integration
  • 16.
  • 18. 1970: The right hardware Client-server architectures
  • 19. 1970: 1980: The right The right hardware application Client-server architectures
  • 20. 1970: 1980: The right The right hardware application Client-server Vendor architectures dominance
  • 21. 1970: 1980: 1990: The right The right The right hardware application integration Client-server Vendor architectures dominance
  • 22. 1970: 1980: 1990: The right The right The right hardware application integration Client-server Vendor Web, SaaS, XML architectures dominance
  • 23. 1970: 1980: 1990: 2000: The right The right The right The right hardware application integration adoption Client-server Vendor Web, SaaS, XML architectures dominance
  • 24. 1970: 1980: 1990: 2000: The right The right The right The right hardware application integration adoption Client-server Vendor Web, SaaS, XML architectures dominance Enterprise application adoption is the new frontier
  • 26. “Hard” data Analytics Usability Performability (what did they (how did they (could they do do on the interact with what they site?) it?) wanted to?) Complete Web Monitoring Community VoC Competition (what were (what were (what are they they saying?) their up to?) motivations?) “Soft” data
  • 27. “Hard” data Analytics Usability Performability (what did they (how did they (could they do do on the interact with what they site?) it?) wanted to?) Complete Web Monitoring Community VoC Competition (what were (what were (what are they they saying?) their up to?) motivations?) “Soft” data
  • 28. Analytics is the measurement of movement towards those goals. http://www.flickr.com/photos/itsgreg/446061432/
  • 29.
  • 31. ATTENTION SEARCHES TWEETS NUMBER OF VISITS MENTIONS ADS SEEN
  • 32. ATTENTION SEARCHES TWEETS NUMBER OF VISITS MENTIONS ADS SEEN LOSS BOUNCE RATE
  • 33. ATTENTION NEW VISITORS SEARCHES GROWTH TWEETS NUMBER OF VISITS MENTIONS ADS SEEN LOSS BOUNCE RATE
  • 34. ATTENTION ENGAGEMENT NEW VISITORS SEARCHES GROWTH PAGES TWEETS NUMBER PER OF VISITS MENTIONS VISIT ADS SEEN LOSS BOUNCE RATE
  • 35. ATTENTION ENGAGEMENT NEW VISITORS SEARCHES GROWTH PAGES TIME TWEETS NUMBER PER ON OF VISITS MENTIONS VISIT SITE ADS SEEN LOSS BOUNCE RATE
  • 36. ATTENTION ENGAGEMENT CONVERSION NEW VISITORS SEARCHES GROWTH CONVERSION PAGES TIME RATE TWEETS NUMBER OF VISITS PER ON x MENTIONS VISIT SITE GOAL ADS SEEN LOSS VALUE BOUNCE RATE
  • 37. Visits Shopping cart Payment options Conversions
  • 38. Visits Shopping cart KPIs Payment options Conversions
  • 39. Visits Shopping cart Payment options Conversions
  • 40. Visits Shopping cart Payment options Conversions
  • 41. Visits Shopping cart Payment options Conversions
  • 46. “Hard” data Analytics Usability Performability (what did they (how did they (could they do do on the interact with what they site?) it?) wanted to?) Complete Web Monitoring Community VoC Competition (what were (what were (what are they they saying?) their up to?) motivations?) “Soft” data
  • 48. Yes Perceptual information (did I see it?) No No Affordance Yes (was I supposed to interact with it?) Adapted from Gaver (1991)
  • 49. Yes False Perceptual information affordance (did I see it?) No No Affordance Yes (was I supposed to interact with it?) Adapted from Gaver (1991)
  • 50. Yes Seen False (perceptible) Perceptual information affordance affordance (did I see it?) No No Affordance Yes (was I supposed to interact with it?) Adapted from Gaver (1991)
  • 51. Yes Seen False (perceptible) Perceptual information affordance affordance (did I see it?) Correct rejection No No Affordance Yes (was I supposed to interact with it?) Adapted from Gaver (1991)
  • 52. Yes Seen False (perceptible) Perceptual information affordance affordance (did I see it?) Unseen Correct (hidden) rejection affordance No No Affordance Yes (was I supposed to interact with it?) Adapted from Gaver (1991)
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55. “Hard” data Analytics Usability Performability (what did they (how did they (could they do do on the interact with what they site?) it?) wanted to?) Complete Web Monitoring Community VoC Competition (what were (what were (what are they they saying?) their up to?) motivations?) “Soft” data
  • 56.
  • 57.
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 61.
  • 62. “Hard” data Analytics Usability Performability (what did they (how did they (could they do do on the interact with what they site?) it?) wanted to?) Complete Web Monitoring Community VoC Competition (what were (what were (what are they they saying?) their up to?) motivations?) “Soft” data
  • 64.
  • 65. Groups and Blogs mailing lists Forums Wikis Real-time chat Micromessaging Social news Social networks aggregators
  • 66.
  • 67. Search Anonymous, but little insight into what’s going on behind closed doors
  • 68. Search Join Anonymous, but Permission- little insight into based access to what’s going on activity (friends, behind closed forums) doors
  • 69. Search Join Moderate Anonymous, but Permission- Some little insight into based access to administrative what’s going on activity (friends, control, but you behind closed forums) have to earn it doors
  • 70. Search Join Moderate Run Anonymous, but Permission- Some Complete control little insight into based access to administrative and visibility but what’s going on activity (friends, control, but you no guarantee behind closed forums) have to earn it anyone will show doors up
  • 71.
  • 72. “Hard” data Analytics Usability Performability (what did they (how did they (could they do do on the interact with what they site?) it?) wanted to?) Complete Web Monitoring Community VoC Competition (what were (what were (what are they saying?) their they up to?) motivations?) “Soft” data
  • 73. “Hard” data Analytics Usability Performability (what did they (how did they (could they do on the interact with do what they site?) it?) wanted to?) Complete Web Monitoring Community VoC Competition (what were (what were (what are they they saying?) their up to?) motivations?) “Soft” data
  • 75.
  • 76.
  • 77.
  • 78.
  • 79.
  • 80.
  • 81.
  • 82.
  • 83.
  • 84.
  • 85.
  • 86. Websites have a dirty little secret http://todaystatus.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/ww11-secret.jpg
  • 87.
  • 88.
  • 89.
  • 90.
  • 92.
  • 93.
  • 94.
  • 95. Figure 3 Interactive user productivity versus computer response time for human-intensive interactions for system A E 600 - 3 T -" INTERACTIVE USER PRODUCTIVITY (IUP) w -HUMAN-INTENSIVE COMPONENT OF IUP 7 MEASURED DATA (HUMAN-INTENSIVE E 500 - A z " COMPONENT) U E - w E 0 > - > - - 400 3 n F 2 0 0 300 - 200 - 100 - 0 0- I 1 I I I 0 1 2 3 4 5 COMPUTER RESPONSE TIME (SI (1981) A. J. Thadhani, IBM Systems Journal, Volume 20, number 4
  • 96.
  • 97. 10 ms
  • 100. 10 s 1s 100 ms 10 ms
  • 101. 10 s 1s 100 ms 10 ms ! Zzz
  • 102.
  • 103.
  • 104.
  • 105. http://www.flickr.com/photos/spunter/393793587 http://www.flickr.com/photos/laurenclose/2217307446
  • 107. But how do we prove it? Correlation is not causality.
  • 109. Chair rentals per day 50 37.5 25 12.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 http://www.rvca.com/anp/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/57226_07+proof+1a+hb+beach+day.jpg
  • 110. Chair rentals per day 50 37.5 25 12.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 http://www.rvca.com/anp/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/57226_07+proof+1a+hb+beach+day.jpg
  • 113. Ice cream and drownings 10000 1000 100 10 1 Ice cream consumption Drownings
  • 114. Ice cream and drownings 10000 1000 100 10 1 Ice cream consumption Drownings
  • 115. Ice cream and drownings 10000 1000 100 10 1 Ice cream consumption Drownings
  • 119. True causality 10000 1000 100 10 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Ice cream consumption Drownings Temperature
  • 120. True causality 10000 1000 100 10 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Ice cream consumption Drownings Temperature
  • 121. True causality 10000 1000 100 10 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Ice cream consumption Drownings Temperature
  • 122. True causality 10000 1000 100 10 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Ice cream consumption Drownings Temperature
  • 126. Another example Hockey games cause peeing spikes.
  • 127.
  • 128. Now we can ask Does poor performance cause bad KPIs?
  • 129.
  • 130. Impact of page load time on average daily searches per user 0% -0.15% -0.30% -0.45% -0.60% 50ms pre-header 100ms pre-header 200ms post-header 200ms post-ad 400ms post-header
  • 131.
  • 132. Impact of additional delay on business metrics 0% -1.25% -2.50% -3.75% -5.00% 50 200 500 1000 2000 Queries/visitor Query refinement Revenue/visitor Any clicks Satisfaction
  • 133. Shopzilla had another angle • Big, high-traffic site • 16 month re-engineering • 100M impressions a day • Page load from 6 seconds to 1.2 • 8,000 searches a second • Uptime from 99.65% to • 20-29M unique visitors a 99.97% month • 100M products • 10% of previous hardware needs http://en.oreilly.com/velocity2009/public/schedule/detail/7709
  • 134. 5-12% increase in revenue.
  • 135.
  • 136.
  • 137.
  • 138. http://www.flickr.com/photos/spunter/393793587 http://www.flickr.com/photos/laurenclose/2217307446 KPIs
  • 139.
  • 140. VISITOR ACCELERATOR WEB SERVER
  • 141. VISITOR ACCELERATOR WEB SERVER Decide whether to optimize
  • 142. VISITOR ACCELERATOR WEB SERVER Decide whether to optimize Normal content
  • 143. VISITOR ACCELERATOR WEB SERVER Decide whether to optimize Normal content Insert segment marker
  • 144. VISITOR ACCELERATOR WEB SERVER Decide whether to optimize Normal content Insert Optimize? segment marker
  • 145. VISITOR ACCELERATOR WEB SERVER Decide whether to optimize Normal Accelerated content Insert Optimize? segment marker
  • 146. VISITOR ACCELERATOR WEB SERVER Decide whether to optimize Normal Accelerated content Insert Optimize? segment marker Unaccelerated
  • 147. VISITOR ACCELERATOR WEB SERVER Decide whether to optimize Normal Receive Accelerated content page Insert Process Optimize? segment scripts marker Send analytics Unaccelerated
  • 148. VISITOR ACCELERATOR WEB SERVER Decide whether to optimize Normal Receive Accelerated content page Insert Process Optimize? segment scripts marker Send analytics Unaccelerated GOOGLE ANALYTICS
  • 149. Traffic levels 9,000 Total number of visits 6,750 4,500 8,505 2,250 4,740 0 Optimized Unoptimized Visitor experience
  • 150. Bounce rate 20 Visits that bounced 15 10 13.38% 14.35% 5 0 Optimized Unoptimized Visitor experience
  • 151. % visits marked “new” % of visits that had no returning cookie 14 11 7 13.61% 10.85% 4 0 Optimized Unoptimized Visitor experience
  • 152. That means... 9000 Value Number of visits 6750 4500 7,582 4,095 2250 923 645 0 Optimized Unoptimized
  • 153. Average time on site 31 Time on site (minutes) 23 16 30.17 23.83 8 0 Optimized Unoptimized Visitor experience
  • 154. Pages per visit 16 Average pages seen 12 8 15.64 11.04 4 0 Optimized Unoptimized Visitor experience
  • 155. Conversion rate and order value 20 Difference due to optimization 15 10 16.07 5 5.51 0 Conversion rate Order value
  • 156. This is just one case LOTS # OF VISITS OPTIMIZED 0 0 VISITOR LATENCY 10,000 Different visitors experienced different performance levels.
  • 157. With one outcome LOTS # OF VISITS 21.58% 0 BETTER 0 VISITOR LATENCY 10,000 Right now we have a single experiment, and a single resulting business impact.
  • 158. With one outcome LOTS Best 5% Worst 5% # OF VISITS 21.58% 0 BETTER 0 VISITOR LATENCY 10,000 Visitors who were optimized fall into a range – the 5th to 95th percentile.
  • 159. Lots of different results LOTS $ PER DAY 0 0 VISITOR LATENCY 10,000 If we have several experiments, we can understand the relationship better.
  • 160. Lots of different results LOTS 24% $ PER DAY 0 0 VISITOR LATENCY 10,000 If we have several experiments, we can understand the relationship better.
  • 161. Lots of different results LOTS 18% $ PER DAY 0 0 VISITOR LATENCY 10,000 If we have several experiments, we can understand the relationship better.
  • 162. Lots of different results LOTS 14% $ PER DAY 0 0 VISITOR LATENCY 10,000 If we have several experiments, we can understand the relationship better.
  • 163. Lots of different results LOTS $ PER 12% DAY 0 0 VISITOR LATENCY 10,000 If we have several experiments, we can understand the relationship better.
  • 164. Lots of different results LOTS $ PER DAY 9.5% 0 0 VISITOR LATENCY 10,000 If we have several experiments, we can understand the relationship better.
  • 165. Lots of different results LOTS $ PER DAY 0 0 VISITOR LATENCY 10,000 If we have several experiments, we can understand the relationship better.
  • 166. You have your own curve LOTS $ PER DAY 0 0 VISITOR LATENCY 10,000 Every web business has a curve like this hidden inside it.
  • 167. 100,000 100% Count (logarithmic) Availability (% uptime) 10,000 99% 1,000 98% 100 97% 10 0 96% Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Visits Twitter mentions Blog comments Conversions Facebook members Uptime
  • 168. “Hard” data Analytics Usability Performability (what did they (how did they (could they do do on the interact with what they site?) it?) wanted to?) Complete Web Monitoring Community VoC Competition (what were (what were (what are they they saying?) their up to?) motivations?) “Soft” data
  • 170. Some takeaways Myopic silos of monitoring won’t last
  • 171. Some takeaways Myopic silos of monitoring won’t last Outcomes aren’t just e-commerce:
  • 172. Some takeaways Myopic silos of monitoring won’t last Outcomes aren’t just e-commerce: Revenue, adoption, productivity, contribution
  • 173. Some takeaways Myopic silos of monitoring won’t last Outcomes aren’t just e-commerce: Revenue, adoption, productivity, contribution Everything needs to tie back to end users and outcomes
  • 174. Some takeaways Myopic silos of monitoring won’t last Outcomes aren’t just e-commerce: Revenue, adoption, productivity, contribution Everything needs to tie back to end users and outcomes Your fastest path to revenue may be performance improvement
  • 175. Some takeaways Myopic silos of monitoring won’t last Outcomes aren’t just e-commerce: Revenue, adoption, productivity, contribution Everything needs to tie back to end users and outcomes Your fastest path to revenue may be performance improvement Starting with the end user is a good way to detect and triage problems in complex environments
  • 176. Some takeaways Myopic silos of monitoring won’t last Outcomes aren’t just e-commerce: Revenue, adoption, productivity, contribution Everything needs to tie back to end users and outcomes Your fastest path to revenue may be performance improvement Starting with the end user is a good way to detect and triage problems in complex environments You don’t know what’s broken where until you look

Editor's Notes

  1. In july, we released a book with O’Reilly called complete monitoring. It’s different than other ORLY books in that it’s not concentrated on a programming language but business outcomes instead.
  2. Every business has a goal hidden inside it.
  3. Amazon: what do they want you to do?
  4. Maximize your shopping cart size
  5. They’re a transactional site. They make money when people complete a process, usually involving a purchase or subscription.
  6. But Amazon also wants you to leave reviews
  7. And add something to a wishlist
  8. These are forms of collaboration, where communities create content.
  9. What about another kind of site. What does gmail want you to do?
  10. GMail is first and foremost a SaaS site. It wants you to be productive, so you can get work done and keep using the system. A paid SaaS site is the same thing.
  11. Of course, GMail is also another kind of site -- a media site. That’s an ad up there.
  12. Media sites want you to click on targeted advertising.
  13. Analytics is about measuring.
  14. Here’s the simplest possible analytics model.
  15. Here’s the simplest possible analytics model.
  16. Here’s the simplest possible analytics model.
  17. Here’s the simplest possible analytics model.
  18. Here’s the simplest possible analytics model.
  19. Here’s the simplest possible analytics model.
  20. Here’s the simplest possible analytics model.
  21. Here’s the simplest possible analytics model.
  22. Here’s the simplest possible analytics model.
  23. Here’s the simplest possible analytics model.
  24. Here’s the simplest possible analytics model.
  25. This is a “funnel” -- the usual way to visualize the conversion of web visitors to folks who do what you want them to.
  26. For example, the number of people who come to a site, but then leave right away, is called the Bounce Rate.
  27. For example, the number of people who come to a site, but then leave right away, is called the Bounce Rate.
  28. For example, the number of people who come to a site, but then leave right away, is called the Bounce Rate.
  29. For example, the number of people who come to a site, but then leave right away, is called the Bounce Rate.
  30. For example, the number of people who come to a site, but then leave right away, is called the Bounce Rate.
  31. For example, the number of people who come to a site, but then leave right away, is called the Bounce Rate.
  32. For example, the number of people who come to a site, but then leave right away, is called the Bounce Rate.
  33. For example, the number of people who come to a site, but then leave right away, is called the Bounce Rate.
  34. For example, the number of people who come to a site, but then leave right away, is called the Bounce Rate.
  35. For example, the number of people who come to a site, but then leave right away, is called the Bounce Rate.
  36. For example, the number of people who come to a site, but then leave right away, is called the Bounce Rate.
  37. In addition to bounce rate,
  38. There are KPIs for shopping cart abandonment
  39. Or traffic volumes
  40. Or content creation rate
  41. It’s one thing to know what people did on your site. But often you want to know how they did it -- did they click on the red button or the blue text? Did they scroll all the way down?
  42. Designers call things like buttons and doorknobs “affordances.” They worry about things like whether the user perceived the affordance, and whether it was in fact intended as one.
  43. Designers call things like buttons and doorknobs “affordances.” They worry about things like whether the user perceived the affordance, and whether it was in fact intended as one.
  44. Designers call things like buttons and doorknobs “affordances.” They worry about things like whether the user perceived the affordance, and whether it was in fact intended as one.
  45. Designers call things like buttons and doorknobs “affordances.” They worry about things like whether the user perceived the affordance, and whether it was in fact intended as one.
  46. for example, the “Xiti Pro” and “Xiti Free” links aren’t actually URLs. They’re text that people mistake for hyperlinks.
  47. You can drill down to the individual form components
  48. Companies like Expedia, Travelocity, and Priceline had problems with abandonment. Visitors would search for a hotel, find one they liked, check rates and availability—and then leave. The sites tried offering discounts, changing layouts, modifying the text, and more. Nothing.
  49. “Why did you come to the site?” Visitors weren’t planning on booking a room, only checking availability. The reason they thought visitors were coming to their site was wrong. The site’s operators had a different set of goals in mind than visitors did, and the symptom of this disconnect was the late abandonment.
  50. With this new-found understanding of visitor motivations, travel sites took two important steps. First, they changed the pages of their sites, offering to watch a particular search for thecustomer and tell them when a deal came along, as shown in Figure 7-1. Second, they moved the purchasing or bidding to the front of the process, forcing the buyer to commit to payment or to name their price before they found out which hotel they’d booked. This prevented window-shopping for a brand while allowing them to charge discounted rates. The results were tremendous, and changed how online hotel bookings happen. Today, most travel sites let users watch specific bookings, and many offer deeper discounts than the hotel chains themselves if customers are willing to commit to a purchase before they find out the brand of the hotel.
  51. PMOG and Webwars. In these games, players install browser plug-ins that let them view websites in different ways than those intended by the site operator. In PMOG, a user can plant traps on your website that other players might trigger, or leave caches of game inventory for teammates to collect.
  52. Other “overlays” to the web let people comment on a site using plug-ins like firef.ly—shown in Figure 7-3—or use site content for address books and phone directories as Skype does.
  53. Or volume of comments
  54. It’s easy to craft a message. Getting genuine attention is the hard part. **GLOSS OVER** Online marketing made advertising accountable thanks to web analytics. Viral marketing approaches makes it easy to spread messages that have high returns. Community marketing now makes it possible for others to genuinely be interested in a product by not feeling like they’re getting messages from a company with ulterior motives to sell.
  55. There are really 8 major types of communities today with four levels of engagements to each.
  56. And there are four levels of engagement you can have with them. More engagement means more visibility, at the expense of anonymity.
  57. And there are four levels of engagement you can have with them. More engagement means more visibility, at the expense of anonymity.
  58. And there are four levels of engagement you can have with them. More engagement means more visibility, at the expense of anonymity.
  59. And there are four levels of engagement you can have with them. More engagement means more visibility, at the expense of anonymity.
  60. So -- what you monitor and what you get out of it depends on what approach you take and what platform you’re engaging with. Here are some examples of the approaches and platforms.
  61. Of course, many of these techniques -- particularly community ones -- can be used to “stalk” your competitors too.
  62. Sites still fail in lots of ways. It’s scary how much things break. This is just a sample of pages for Canadians...
  63. Sites still fail in lots of ways. It’s scary how much things break. This is just a sample of pages for Canadians...
  64. Sites still fail in lots of ways. It’s scary how much things break. This is just a sample of pages for Canadians...
  65. Sites still fail in lots of ways. It’s scary how much things break. This is just a sample of pages for Canadians...
  66. Sites still fail in lots of ways. It’s scary how much things break. This is just a sample of pages for Canadians...
  67. Sites still fail in lots of ways. It’s scary how much things break. This is just a sample of pages for Canadians...
  68. Sites still fail in lots of ways. It’s scary how much things break. This is just a sample of pages for Canadians...
  69. Sites still fail in lots of ways. It’s scary how much things break. This is just a sample of pages for Canadians...
  70. Sites still fail in lots of ways. It’s scary how much things break. This is just a sample of pages for Canadians...
  71. Sites still fail in lots of ways. It’s scary how much things break. This is just a sample of pages for Canadians...
  72. All of this analytics is good. But it’s only half of the job of web monitoring. Because try as you might, websites have a problem.
  73. for example . . . imagine that you decided to launch a kick ass survey. you’ve bought the latest shiny tool you’ve carefully crafted the questions you hired outside help to make sure they’re worded properly you had them sent to a professional copy editor to get the final tone just right it went through legal you segmented your campaign according to the demographic whose voice you need to understand the most and as you sit precariously over the big red send button you can’t help but feel that you’ve covered all your bases. Satisfied, you press the button and out it goes into the world.
  74. that was the case with paypal, recently. We don’t have insight into their numbers, so we can’t tell for sure what the particular conversion rate for this survey was, but we suspect that the pickup wasn’t as good as anticipated. Their web analytics and VOC don’t have the necessary functions built in to determine that their SSL cert was mismatched, cause safari and other browsers to come up with a nasty message saying “we can’t verify the identity of paypal-surveys.com”. After all, think about it; if it’s coming from paypal and the identity can’t be verified, would you go on the site and fill anything out?
  75. we know of a case of a marketing officer who’se job was put in question because of a string of failed campaigns.The company jumped the gun on this one. Thanks to a friend in the web operations department, he was able to show that the network was at fault. Even though the company load tested diligently, they only did from their internal network. It turns out the problems were related to the last mile - something that was hidden until the company implemented synthetic monitoring. Even though overall sentiment was a little more negative than usual during the campaigns, the conversion rates skyrocketed once better transit was installed.
  76. This is a scary one and a true. If you haven’t heard, sitemeter took down every single website that were a client of theirs. If you were on IE and wanted to access sites like TechCrunch, Gizmodo and so on, you were out of luck in August, because the code crashed the browser. Think about it - your site isn’t just vulnerable to whatever goofy code your development team throws at the Internet, it’s also vulnerable to your very own web analytics tracking codes! This would take hours of troubleshooting to reveal without synthetic monitoring - or one simply alert would be triggered with the proper tools in place. I don’t mean to pick on SiteMeter btw, I’m sure they have a great service - but these types of errors can kill substantial amounts of revenue until you catch it.
  77. Once upon a time, performance was a dark art. We struggled to deliver “good enough” without really knowing why.
  78. We managed by anecdote. We were sure faster was better, but we couldn’t tie it to specific business outcomes.
  79. The notion that speed is good for users isn’t new. The concept of “Flow” – a state of heightened engagement that we experience when we’re truly focused on something – was first proposed by mihaly csikszentmihalyi
  80. There’s a study from IBM in 1981 that shows strong evidence of the relationship between performance and productivity. As systems get faster, users get EXPONENTIALLY more productive.
  81. It turns out that attention and engagement drop off predictably. At ten milliseconds, we actually believe something is physically accessible – think clicking a button and seeing it change color. At 100 milliseconds, we can have a conversation with someone without noticing the delay (remember old transatlantic calls?) At a second, we’re still engaged, but aware of the delay. At ten seconds, we get bored and tune out, because other things come into our minds.
  82. It turns out that attention and engagement drop off predictably. At ten milliseconds, we actually believe something is physically accessible – think clicking a button and seeing it change color. At 100 milliseconds, we can have a conversation with someone without noticing the delay (remember old transatlantic calls?) At a second, we’re still engaged, but aware of the delay. At ten seconds, we get bored and tune out, because other things come into our minds.
  83. It turns out that attention and engagement drop off predictably. At ten milliseconds, we actually believe something is physically accessible – think clicking a button and seeing it change color. At 100 milliseconds, we can have a conversation with someone without noticing the delay (remember old transatlantic calls?) At a second, we’re still engaged, but aware of the delay. At ten seconds, we get bored and tune out, because other things come into our minds.
  84. It turns out that attention and engagement drop off predictably. At ten milliseconds, we actually believe something is physically accessible – think clicking a button and seeing it change color. At 100 milliseconds, we can have a conversation with someone without noticing the delay (remember old transatlantic calls?) At a second, we’re still engaged, but aware of the delay. At ten seconds, we get bored and tune out, because other things come into our minds.
  85. It turns out that attention and engagement drop off predictably. At ten milliseconds, we actually believe something is physically accessible – think clicking a button and seeing it change color. At 100 milliseconds, we can have a conversation with someone without noticing the delay (remember old transatlantic calls?) At a second, we’re still engaged, but aware of the delay. At ten seconds, we get bored and tune out, because other things come into our minds.
  86. How much was fast enough? It was anybody’s guess.
  87. And guess they did. This is Zona’s formula for patience, the basis for the “eight second rule.” Unfortunately, things like tenacity, importance, and natural patience aren’t concrete enough for the no-nonsense folks that run web applications.
  88. And guess they did. This is Zona’s formula for patience, the basis for the “eight second rule.” Unfortunately, things like tenacity, importance, and natural patience aren’t concrete enough for the no-nonsense folks that run web applications.
  89. IT operators and marketers are completely different people. What convinces an IT person to fix performance doesn’t convince a marketer. They want to know how it will impact the business fundamentals.
  90. By now, we know that everything matters. Usability, page latency, visitor mindset, and even sentiment on social media platforms all contribute to the business results you get from a site.
  91. Imagine for a minute that you’re the mayor of a sleepy little beach town. You track all kinds of things about the city (because you’re an analyst.) You track tourism. And drowning rates. And hotel room vacancies. And ice cream consumption. And grains of sand. And all kinds of things.
  92. You track tourism. And drowning rates. And hotel room vacancies. And ice cream consumption. And grains of sand. And all kinds of things.
  93. You track tourism. And drowning rates. And hotel room vacancies. And ice cream consumption. And grains of sand. And all kinds of things.
  94. You have a problem with drowning, and you’ve ruled out the usual causes.
  95. One day, someone is crunching ice cream numbers
  96. They notice there’s a correlation between ice cream and drowning.
  97. They notice there’s a correlation between ice cream and drowning.
  98. They notice there’s a correlation between ice cream and drowning.
  99. This is useful: Knowing icecream consumption trends, you can predict demand for funeral homes
  100. Or tell local merchants how much ice cream to stock based on drowning rates. You have CORRELATION, which can be used to make predictions.
  101. But what’s really going on? It turns out that both icecream and drowning are correlated to something else -- something causal: summertime.
  102. One day, someone points out that there’s a correlation between ice cream and drowning.
  103. One day, someone points out that there’s a correlation between ice cream and drowning.
  104. One day, someone points out that there’s a correlation between ice cream and drowning.
  105. One day, someone points out that there’s a correlation between ice cream and drowning.
  106. Knowing this, you can minimize deaths (through CPR)
  107. or lifeguards
  108. And maximize ice cream sales (perhaps by locating them near lifeguard stands just to be sure.)
  109. One day, someone is crunching ice cream numbers
  110. One example of this is performance experimentation that Google’s done. Google’s a perfect lab. Not only do they have a lot of traffic, they also have computing resources to do back-end analysis of large data sets. Plus, they’re not afraid of experimentation – in fact, they insist on it. So they tried different levels of performance and watched what happened to visitors.
  111. The results, which they presented at Velocity in May, were fascinating. There was a direct impact between delay and the number of searches a user did each day – and to make matters worse, the numbers often didn’t improve even when the delay was removed. You may think 0.7% drop isn’t significant, but for Google this represents a tremendous amount of revenue.
  112. Microsoft’s Bing site is a good lab, too. They looked at key metrics, or KPIs, of their search site.
  113. They showed that as performance got worse, all key metrics did, too. Not just the number of searches, but also the revenue (earned when someone clicks) and refinement of searches.
  114. Shopzilla overhauled their entire site, dramatically reducing page load time, hardware requirements, and downtime.
  115. They saw a significant increase in revenues
  116. The site improvement increased the number of Google clicks that turned into actual visits
  117. It also affected search engine scores. By improving load time, search engines (in this case Google UK) “learned” that this was a good destination. We, and many others, had been claiming this for a while; but Google refused to acknowledge it officially.
  118. Google finally owned up that this was in fact the case -- on April 9 of this year.
  119. By tying performance and availability to Key Performance Indicators – KPIs – business and operations can finally have a conversation. But KPIs are different for different sites.
  120. Strangeloop agreed to set up an experiment using their technology which would help measure this.
  121. First, traffic. Despite splitting visitors to be optimized and unoptimized evenly, we had many more optimized sessions captured by the analytics. This may be a result of slower-loading pages failing to execute the analytics script, or abandoning the visit before the page had time to load.
  122. Unoptimized visitors are roughly 1% more likely to leave the site immediately, without proceeding to other pages.
  123. The unoptimized visits consisted of more new visitors than the optimized ones did. While this might seem counter-intuitive, remember that these are visits:
  124. This likely means that optimized visitors came back more often.
  125. Optimized visitors spent more time on the site
  126. And looked at more pages during their visit – if you’re a media property, this means more impressions for your advertisers.
  127. On a second e-commerce site running roughly the same experiment, conversions were 16 percent higher and orders were 5.5% higher.
  128. Ultimately, you want a single, comprehensive view of your web presence across all of these platforms in order to make good decisions and communicate what you’re doing to the rest of the organization.