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ITSI
Copyright@2010
Agenda




                 ITSI
         Copyright@2010
Agenda




                 ITSI
         Copyright@2010
What will the future look like?


“ The future has already happened,
    it is just unequally distributed.”

                    - William Gibson




                                                 ITSI
                                         Copyright@2010
The Relationship Between Strategy and Scenarios
   The hypotheses of current strategic analysis are considered in the context of
   a range of plausible futures created through a facilitated process comprising
 Internalinternal and externalScenario Thinking                Business Model
   both Analysis &             experts.
Hypothesis Generation                                              Design


                                 What Could be



  What is                                               What Should be




                                                                                ITSI
                                                                        Copyright@2010
Agenda

 The true impact of the Internet
 Which forces will drive the change?
  The Ubiquitous Internet
  Life in the CyberSphere
 Technology & trend forecasting
 Technology Strategy & the challenge for
 companies in the next decade


                                              ITSI
                                      Copyright@2010
In the next decade …
  95% of video and DVD stores will close down
 You will have your own TV channel
  Augmented Reality will redefine how you see
 the world
  TV stations will carry personalised
 advertisements
 Your current cellular number will stop being the
 primary identifier in your life
  Killer Cocktails will dominate the application
 space


                                                     ITSI
                                             Copyright@2010
The primary forces




                             ITSI
                     Copyright@2010
The primary forces
Moore’s law

Processing power will double every 18 months




                                                 ITSI
                                         Copyright@2010
The primary forces
                     Bandwidth

                     - will double every 9 months




                 This revolution will mean very
                 low-cost
                 high-bandwidth
                 communication
                                                   ITSI
                                           Copyright@2010
More information can today be sent over a single
cable in a second than was sent over the entire
Internet in 2004 in a month.




Bell Labs -> new world speed record for fiber-optic transport.
 This record, 100 petabits per second kilometer,
exceeds previous records such as one achieved in
 May 2009 of 19 petabyes per second per kilometer
(Pbps/km) claimed by AT&T, NEC and Corning.

                                                                         ITSI
                                                                 Copyright@2010
How was it done?

155 simultaneous wavelengths of light over a single 7000 km
fiber, with optical repeaters every 90 km along the link. Each
wavelength carried 100 gigabits per second of traffic to give
the fiber a total payload of 15.5 terabits (trillion bits) per
second.




                                                               ITSI
                                                       Copyright@2010
The primary forces
                     Storewidth is doubling
                       every 12 months.




                                                      ITSI
                                              Copyright@2010
Abundance in storage space




                                     ITSI
                             Copyright@2010
Storewidth

 "The consumer will have a
  5 or 6-terabyte drive by
  2009, and will be able to
  store
    25-50,000 CDs
—which is all the music on
 all the labels!
That's when we officially
 reach the point of lunacy!“

- Rob Reid, Founder, Listen.com


                                          ITSI
                                  Copyright@2010
Increased processing power & storewidth




                                            ITSI
                                    Copyright@2010
The result of increasing processing power,
       bandwidth & storage space
Tools for Asynchronous Warfare


                           Unmanned aircraft




   DNA Analysis




                                                       ITSI
                                               Copyright@2010
The primary forces




                             ITSI
                     Copyright@2010
Entering the 2nd Half of the Chess Board

                        1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32
                         + 64 + 128 + 256 + 512
                        + 1024 + ... + 2,147,483,648



                       On the 64th square of the
                       chessboard alone the
                       number is 263 =
                       9,223,372,036,854,775,808,
                       or more than two billion times
                       as much on the first
                       half of the chessboard.

                                                        ITSI
                                               Copyright@2010
Abundant processing power – Military use
  United States Air Force - 2,200 Sony PlayStation 3 (PS3)
 video-game consoles. Build supercomputer that will be
 used for research, including the development of high-
 definition imaging systems for radar.

  An iPhone app called Bullet Flight is used by American
 Special forces.

  An IBM supercomputer called Roadrunner, established a
 new record by operating at more than one petaflop (1,000
 trillion calculations a second). Roadrunner is the world’s
 first “hybrid” supercomputer, having been assembled in
 part from off-the-shelf equipment, including 12,960 Cell
 processor chips like those found inside the PS3. It will be
 used to simulate the behaviour of nuclear weapons.
                                                             ITSI
                                                     Copyright@2010
Abundance




                    ITSI
            Copyright@2010
Exploiting the abundance




                                   ITSI
                           Copyright@2010
The ubiquitous
              Internet will need
       to be redefined if we are
to understand its true potential.    ITSI
                             Copyright@2010
Visible & Audible spectrum




                                     ITSI
                             Copyright@2010
The Internet is accessible everywhere on the planet




                                                              ITSI
                                                      Copyright@2010
New abundances and scarcities
 If bandwidth is free, you get a completely different
  computer architecture and information economy.

 Transcending all previous concepts of centralization and
  decentralization, one global machine will distribute
  processing to the optimal point and access everything.

 Feeding on low power and high bandwidth, the most
  common computer of the new era will be a digital cellular
  phone with an IP address.

             •  George Gilder (1996)



                                                                 ITSI
                                                         Copyright@2010
Everything can have an IP address




  A world where everything is connected, and
   everything can have an Internet address.




                                                  ITSI
                                          Copyright@2010
Internet addressing
 IPv4 (e.g 196.23.45.67) support address
 space for 4.3 thousand million devices
 IPng (for "new generation"), theoretically enables
340,282,366,920,938,463,463,374,607,431,768,211,456
              possible addresses; or

             665,570,793,348,866,943,898,599
               for each square metre of the Earth.
The story so far
         The Internet is all around us,
                pervasive,
                intelligent
                      and

                   invisible,
     not confined to the narrow boundaries
          of our mind and experience.



                                                     ITSI
                                             Copyright@2010
The building blocks of the Cybersphere




                                                 ITSI
                                         Copyright@2010
The building blocks of the Cybersphere




                                                 ITSI
                                         Copyright@2010
The building blocks of the Cybersphere




                                                 ITSI
                                         Copyright@2010
The CyberSphere becomes part of the Biosphere




                                                 ITSI
                                         Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
Welcome to the CyberSphere




                                     ITSI
                             Copyright@2010
Welcome to the CyberSphere




                                     ITSI
                             Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
Oracle of Delphi
The Pythia (Greek: Πυθία) was the priestess presiding
 over the Oracle of Apollo at Delphi, located on the
 slopes of Mount Parnassus.




                                                           ITSI
                                                   Copyright@2010
The Oracle for a new millennium




                                          ITSI
                                  Copyright@2010
Questions for the Oracle…

What is the exchange rate right now?
What will the weather be like in Port Louis, Mauritius?
Where can I find the Telecosm handbook?
What song is playing right now?
Where can I buy the chair I just saw in the Guest House?
Where is the closest resort?
Where is my car right now?
What is happening at my house at this moment?

                                                            ITSI
                                                    Copyright@2010
The Oracle for a new millennium

What is the exchange rate right now?




                                               ITSI
                                       Copyright@2010
The Oracle for a new millennium

What will the weather be like in Port Louis, Mauritius?




                                                            ITSI
                                                    Copyright@2010
The Oracle for a new millennium

Where can I find the Telecosm handbook?




                                                  ITSI
                                          Copyright@2010
The Oracle for a new millennium

What song is playing right now?




                                          ITSI
                                  Copyright@2010
The Oracle for a new millennium

Where is the closest resort?




                                          ITSI
                                  Copyright@2010
The Oracle for a new millennium

Where is my car?




                                          ITSI
                                  Copyright@2010
The Oracle for a new millennium

What is happening at my office?




                                          ITSI
                                  Copyright@2010
The Oracle for a new millennium

Where is the closest open restaurant?




                                                ITSI
                                        Copyright@2010
Go110 to launch 1 June 2010




                                      ITSI
                              Copyright@2010
Augmented reality is just around the corner

     Special at Baby City:
                                 Special at BabysRus:
     Pamper nappies (0-3month)
                                 Pamper nappies (0-3month)
     R99.00/40
                                 R80.00/40




                                                                 ITSI
                                                         Copyright@2010
Augmented reality is just around the corner

     Special at Baby City:
                                 Special at BabysRus:
     Pamper nappies (0-3month)
                                 Pamper nappies (0-3month)
     R99.00/40
                                 R80.00/40




                                                                 ITSI
                                                         Copyright@2010
Technology’s impact on time and space


 Internet      Bandwidth      Connectivity     Quality of
 Protocol                                     Experience

 Information    Information     Information    Information
  Becomes        Becomes         Becomes        Becomes



Agnostic to    Agnostic to    Agnostic to     Agnostic to
 Content         Time           Space           Form




                                                              ITSI
                                                      Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
The Mental space for reframing
                  The             The           The
               conceptual       present      conceptual
                  past                         future
                               Upframing
 The
             Reconstructed        And          Artefact
 Consciously
               theories         creative      scenarios
 Abstracted
                               induction
 domain

 The Domain     History as     The current    Projections
 of everyday   “objectively”   Established       Plans
 discourse       recorded      Mental map       Goals

                Archetypes       Sensory
 The Non-
                Collective      perception   Non-conscious
 Conscious
               unconscious     Unconscious     scenarios
 domain
               Landscapes       simulation                    ITSI
                                                      Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
Industry Trends in the CyberSphere


Coming Network Society                               Emerging Cloud Computing

    1B+ new mobile subscribers                      
    Trillion US$ Internet application
      mainly in Emerging Markets
                                         The               market

    Totally up to 5B+                               
    Converged value chain: Telecom,
      subscribers
                                   Building blocks        Internet, Software, Media,
                                                          Electronics


Ubiquitous Broadband
                                        Of the
                                                          Exploding Digital Space

    300M new fixed line BB         CyberSphere           
    Thousand Exabyte (1018) digital
      subscribers, totally up to
      600M                                                      info


    1.2B new mobile BB                                   
    10 times traffic increase, up to
      subscribers, totally up to                                50%-80% annual growth
      1.4B




5,000,000,000 subscribers
                                                                                                  ITSI
                                                                                        Copyright@2010
Device impact on bandwidth utilisation




                                                 ITSI
                                         Copyright@2010
Mobile bandwidth forecasts




                                     ITSI
                             Copyright@2010
Bandwidth Explosion

                                                               DoCoMo
Mbps                                                           Press release March 26th, 2008
200
          15 y                        5y                       …“LTE commercial deployment 2010”
180

160

140
                                   100-200x
120

100

80

60
               35x
40

20

0
      EDGE WCDMA HSPA      HSPA+ I-HSPA WiMAX WiMAX    LTE
                                        10 MHz 20 MHz 20 MHz

      SHDSL   ADSL   ADSL2 ADSL2+ VDSL   VDSL2 DSM L3

                 Faster growth than anytime in history!                                         ITSI
                                                                                        Copyright@2010
Bandwidth requires changing scale and investment


                                          Home       Access     Aggregation   Service router      Core


                    Network
                    Impact

Today’s Average Bandwidth consumption:    1.5 Mb      .1 Mb        .1 Mb          .05 Mb
Tomorrow’s Average Bandwidth consumption: 20.0 Mb     15.0 Mb      4.0 Mb        1.50 Mb



Scale Multiplier:                        1,500%     15,000%      4,000% 3,000%



 As bandwidth requirements accelerate, the
 current unstable industrymodel will come under
 increasing pressure, requiring significant scaling
 of the network and further investment
                                                                                                       ITSI
                                                                                               Copyright@2010
A new era of wireless connectivity

          3.5 – 3.7 GHz   WiMax
          2.5 – 2.7 GHz   WiMax / LTE
                2.4 GHz   WiFi
              2.1 GHz     WCDMA
           1800 MHz       PSM

             900 MHz      GSM
             850 MHz      CDMA 2000

         692 – 850 MHz    UTRAN LTE
                                      Normative
 Range                                                    ITSI
                                      Bandwidth   Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
Network architecture overview


                           TODAY                                                                  Evolution
                                                       Internet            Applications                                      Internet
Service & Control        Service & Control           Applications                                                          Applications
Mobile                   Fixed


                                                                           Control
  Mobile MSS / GW        TDM Switch SoftSwitch

                                                                                                                IMS


                                                                           TDM Switch Fixed & Mobile NGN

Transport                Transport                 Transport               Transport



TDM network (ATM, SDH)   TDM network (ATM, SDH)           Ethernet / IP                        Legacy TDM                 Ethernet / IP / DWDM

Access                   Access                                            Access


         GSM WCDMA              POTS/ISDN WiMAX       MSAN      DSLAM                WiMAX      GSM    HSPA      LTE     DSLAM MSAN       NGOA

                         Customer                                          Customer
                         premises                                          premises
                                   WiMAX modem DSL Splitter DSL modem                          3G modem DSL Splitter    ETH DSL     WiMAX modem
     2G / 3G device                                                                            (data only)
                                                             (data only)                                                modem

Terminals                Terminals                  Data Terminals         Terminals                                              Data Terminals
      Mobile                    Fixed                                                  Fixed           Fixed / Mobile     Mobile




                           POTS      ISDN                                       POTS      ISDN         SIP      PC
     Handheld                                           PC/Xbox                                                          Handheld       PC/Xbox
                           Phone     Phone                                      Phone     Phone       Phone    Client
                                                                                                                                                 ITSI
                                                                                                                                    Copyright@2010
Key initiatives on network efficiency


 Multiple-Access                     Transmission
                                         Evolution
     RAN, ADSL
                                      Backhaul, Transport

                        Multiple
                        network
                      mgmt systems

 Core Network          Operations
                       efficiency       Telco2Web
 Simplification
                              ”
    Multi data-base       “ENE
     and charging




         Green & Energy Efficient Networks
                                                                    ITSI
                                                            Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
The Digital Value chain




App. or
                               ID &    Intel   Local   Users
Content Portal   Net   Core   Billing Edge      loop   Hard
                                                               OS Browser    App.
provider




                                                                                ITSI
                                                                        Copyright@2010
The Rise of the Stupid Network

The Black Box Law

Networks will become black boxes: dumb pipes,
 with intelligence spread to the machines at their
 peripheries.

Past networks, including the phone system, have
 been "smart" and narrowband.

Broadband flourishes with the reverse.
                                                     ITSI
                                             Copyright@2010
The Digital Value chain
                           Intelligence
                          Identification
                             Power




App. or
                               ID &    Intel   Local   Users
Content Portal   Net   Core   Billing Edge      loop   Hard
                                                               OS Browser    App.
provider




                                                                               ITSI
                                                                       Copyright@2010
The Digital Value chain

     Open                                                                              Open
    Network                                                                           Network




App. or
                                                  Local    Users
Content     Billing   Portals     Net     Core                      OS   Browser   Intel.    ID App.
                                                  loop     Hard
provider




App. or
                                         ID &     Intel.    Local    Users
Content    Portals    Net       Core                                         OS    Browser App.
                                        Billing   Edge      loop     Hard
provider




                                             Controlled Network                                     ITSI
                                                                                            Copyright@2010
2 identifiers in one device

     Traditional                     Emerging


Cellular number                Internet Protocol v6


Sim Card ID                    Adress
controlled by                  ID controlled by
Cellular Network               handset
Provider                       manufacturer



                                                          ITSI
                                                  Copyright@2010
Multi signal devices
Your device                             Mesh 5G?
UTRAN LTE
will choose
the most optimum
carrier signal.                                3G
                            Bluetooth
 GSM
                            Software defined
                            radio means that
                            WiFi
                            your base stations
                            can be extremely
                   Ad-hoc   flexible and will work
                            on any new protocol.
                                                    ITSI
                                            Copyright@2010
4G – area of options
                                                                                   regional
                wireless access          carrier-grade seamless multi-servicesubarchitectures,
best effort                                                   mobility,
                nomadic mobility,       realtime voice,                           isolators,
    IP                                     E2E-QoS      continuous mobility in
                QoS, multimedia                                                protocol heaps
                                                              wide area
                   incl. voice




                                                                                              4G area of options
   Fixed           Wireless              Realtime           Wireless              NG
                                                             Mobile            Internet
  Internet         Internet              Internet
                                                            Internet



    Some             More              Optimum               Pure                New
     IP               IP                   IP                 IP                  IP
                 UMTS Evolution
                                                                                   NG
   GSM /
                                                                                 Mobile
   GPRS               UMTS               UMTS +              UMTS+
                                                                                Wireless
                                                               +
                                                                                Packets

E2E-IP to the    IP in RAN, IP       MBMS, WLAN/UMTS native IP routing to        dynamic
                     based            interworking, push,
MS, IP in CN                                               mobile host, IETF     network
                    service         presence, IMS Phase 2,
                 provisioning          packet bearer
                                                           protocols only      composition                         ITSI
                                                                                           Copyright@2010
                 (IMS), HSDPA          enhancements
ITSI
Copyright@2010
Terminal capability in 2008 – or sooner

Mobile Storage Revolution           New Ways of               Multiplicity of Local
                                 Displaying Content             Connectivity
           Embedded Flash
           6MB <<< 128MB


            Embedded HDD
            2GB <<< 50GB



                            +                           +
             Memory Card
           128MB <<< 16GB




  20 GByte is enough for your entire music collection + your entire photo
   album + 20hrs of home movies + 8 hours of DVD quality movies + a bevy of
   games                                                                         ITSI
                                                                        Copyright@2010
One click e-Commerce


   Handheld TV units have bi-directional communication
   capabilities, which allows for sequential e-Commerce
   applications.




                                                        ITSI
                                                Copyright@2010
Wearable computer interfaces




                                       ITSI
                               Copyright@2010
Augmented reality




                            ITSI
                    Copyright@2010
Telepresence - today and tomorrow




                                            ITSI
                                    Copyright@2010
RFID & Auto Identification




Source: www.autoid.org
                                     ITSI
                             Copyright@2010
Supermarkets & RFIDs




                               ITSI
                       Copyright@2010
Payment via Near Field Communication
 Early market: Hong Kong
  Acceptance of Octopus Card for mini and micro-
  payments
  throughout the city. Nokia and Sony are ready to
   launch NFC phones in Hong Kong in 3rd Qtr 2006

 .




                                                             ITSI
                                                     Copyright@2010
Electronic paper




                           ITSI
                   Copyright@2010
Amazon Kindle




                        ITSI
                Copyright@2010
The eBook competition is heating up
                        B&N Reader $199
 Amazon    Sony eBook
 Kindle      Reader
  $299       $199



                          Apple iPad $499




                                                    ITSI
                                            Copyright@2010
My Avatar and I




                          ITSI
                  Copyright@2010
Avatars and their owners




                                   ITSI
                           Copyright@2010
Life in Second World




                               ITSI
                       Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
A model of Change

                                                                      Concreteness
                        Corporate change
                                                                       Interaction
                                                                                      Spatial
                                                          Cognitive
How does a piece of chalk        External
change?                                          Agency                                           Velocity

   They can be
                                 Economic                               Value
   damaged,
   physically degrade                                Design           Technical
                                   Political                                                    Power
                   They can be
                    consumed
                                         environmental

                                                     Social   Density                Granularity
             Value                                                                          Internal

                                                                                                                ITSI
                                                                                                        Copyright@2010
Change Dimensions
  Concreteness : degree to which value is based on
  ‘physical’ (e.g. a car) or ‘abstract’ ( transport) things.
  Velocity : speed of finding the right connection. (e.g.
  time to find a service.)
  Granularity : the size of a thing that is perceived to
  have individual value (e.g. CD vs. single MP3.)
  Density : (of the factors of production – land, labour,
  capital, information) Degree to which configurations of
  these may be ‘optimally’ (un)packed. (e.g. a message
  that is understandable (unpacked) in many domains is
  dense.)
  Agency : Who or what initiates change and the
  degree of freedom to act of these.
                                                               ITSI
                                                       Copyright@2010
Applying the change dimension model

  Insurance
                                                Concreteness

  Television                                        Interaction
                                                               Spatial
                                         Cognitive
                    External
                                 Agency                                  Velocity
  Car purchasing
                    Economic                         Value
                                  Design        Technical
                                                                    Power
  Payment           Political


                         environmental

                                  Social   Density            Granularity
                                                                    Internal

                                                                                 ITSI
                                                                         Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
Immediate access to a world of information




                                              ITSI
                                      Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
A new strategic paradigm

                                                                            Invite &
                   Co-producer
                                                                           Participate
View of customer




                   Source                                  Listen &
                                                            Serve

                   Receiver             Make
                   (market)
                                        & Sell

                                      Production           Relationships     Organisation
                                                                             of value creation
                                                Critical competence
                   Source: Richard Norman & Keith Coates
                                                                                               ITSI
                                                                                       Copyright@2010
No business will be spared
  Medical & Health
  Banking
  Entertainment
  Advertising
  Education
  Motor industry
  Communications
  FMCG
  Tourism
  Insurance
  Construction
  Retail
  Travel


                                     ITSI
                             Copyright@2010
A few challenges for your company
  Mini & Micro Transaction processing

  Cross selling in a more
                                                           Concreteness
   Granular world with
   Agency being redefined                                   Interaction
                                                                      Spatial
                                                    Cognitive
                             External
  Cannibalisation capability               Agency                              Velocity
                             Economic                           Value
                                             Design       Technical
  Flexibility to enter         Political                                  Power


    new markets                     environmental

                                             Social   Density Granularity
                                                                           Internal
  Redefining money
                                                                                        ITSI
                                                                                Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
2010
            Wifi coverage built into public
             phone terminals
 TIMELINE




            Smart Barbie with GPS tracking,
             personality chip and full sensory
             input

            Artificial Intelligent houses which
             react to occupants


                                                          ITSI
                                                  Copyright@2010
2011
            Hospitals use virtual queuing
             systems
 TIMELINE




            Neural networks used for
             patient appointment
             management

            Multimedia patient records



                                                    ITSI
                                            Copyright@2010
2011
            Home manager computer
 TIMELINE




            Chips in packaging control
             cooking

            Washing machine aware of
             contents and selects
             cycle



                                                 ITSI
                                         Copyright@2010
2011
            Electronic wallpaper
            Full voice interaction with machine
 TIMELINE




            Anti-noise technology built into homes
            Programmable noise cancellation earplugs




                                                          ITSI
                                                  Copyright@2010
2011
            Voice synthesis quality up
             to human standard
 TIMELINE




            Voice over IP spam calls
             become prevalent

            Highly integrated
             biosensors




                                                 ITSI
                                         Copyright@2010
2012
            Video surveillance of neighbours becomes
             social problem
 TIMELINE




            Government introduce legislation to protect
             local community Intellectual Property from
             exploitation in the Virtual World




                                                            ITSI
                                                    Copyright@2010
2012
            Electronic cash from internet migrates onto
             high street
 TIMELINE




            Personal banking replaced by agents
            Global barter sub-economy




                                                            ITSI
                                                    Copyright@2010
2013
            Shadow democracy used in community
              networks
            Most tickets electronic
 TIMELINE




            In-store positioning systems enable
              personalised guides




                                                          ITSI
                                                  Copyright@2010
2015
            Artificial Intelligent teachers get better
             results than most human teachers
 TIMELINE




            3D TV without need for special glasses

            Holographic displays for continuous video

            3D video conferencing


                                                                 ITSI
                                                         Copyright@2010
2015
            Genetic screening widely used
 TIMELINE




            Lifestyle monitoring and insurance linked to
             medical records

            Operations videoed and stored as part of
             medical record




                                                            ITSI
                                                    Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2015
            Spread of nomadic information companies
              leads to global taxation
            Integrated taxation in all transactions
 TIMELINE




            More people using telework centres than
              home working




                                                         ITSI
                                                 Copyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2017
            Office Automation systems using
             functions similar to brain functions
 TIMELINE




            Satellite location devices implanted into
             humans become commonplace

            Machine use of human-like creativity




                                                            ITSI
                                                    Copyright@2010
2018
            Virtual companies and virtual co-operatives
             dominate
 TIMELINE




            Purely electronic companies exist - minimal
             human involvement




                                                            ITSI
                                                    Copyright@2010
2018
            VR overlays on real world
 TIMELINE




            VR escapism is a major social problem




                                                            ITSI
                                                    Copyright@2010
2018
            Online surgeries dominate first line medical
             care
 TIMELINE




            Quiz shows screen for implant technologies

            Some implants seen as status symbols




                                                             ITSI
                                                     Copyright@2010
2018
            ID cards replaced by
              biometric scanning
 TIMELINE




            Cyberspace covers 75%
             of developed world




                                            ITSI
                                    Copyright@2010
2020
            Global voting on some issues
            Network based telepathy
 TIMELINE




            VR extensively used in retirement homes




                                                              ITSI
                                                      Copyright@2010
2025
            Creation of “The Matrix”
            Experience recording
 TIMELINE




            Real toy soldiers using nanotechnology




                                                             ITSI
                                                     Copyright@2010
Business Opportunities in a world of abundance
  Personalised TV advertisements
  Shared RAN with Government / Competitors
  Video glasses
  “Time share” Virtual Presence
  Free in-company cellular calls via Piconets /
 Femtocells to counter SIP over WiFi
  Paris Metro Pricing to counter Skype over 3G / LTE
  Personal Cockpit to allow web agents to gather all
 relevant information on your behalf
  Management of all your IP addresses via your own
 cockpit



                                                            ITSI
                                                    Copyright@2010
Universal Resource Locater (URL)
       125.14.123.123 is actually www.cnn.com

             So, if your devices are called
                  196.14.23.45.13.126
               198.34.56.78.123.235 or
                  198.34.56.78.235.12

   What prohibits us then from giving all our devices
            an easy-to-remember name?


   Which bring us to the next question:
                                                          ITSI
                                                  Copyright@2010
What will be the most important Internet address in my life?

Pieter.Geldenhuys.rsa.name               phone.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name




 car.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name




                                         home.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name


 Registrations for rsa.name opened 1st Q of 2004 !
                                                                           ITSI
                                                                   Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2008
            Smart Barbie with personality chip and
             full sensory input
 TIMELINE




            Artificial Intelligent houses which
             react to occupants

            Expert systems surpass human
             learning and logic abilities

                                                          ITSI
                                                  Copyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2009 Home manager computer

            Chips in packaging control cooking
 TIMELINE




            Washing machine aware of contents
             and selects cycle




                                                         ITSI
                                                 Copyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2009
            Windows with holographic coatings
             to re-direct sunlight
 TIMELINE




            Virtual windows
            Full voice interaction with machine




                                                      ITSI
                                              Copyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2010
            Voice synthesis quality up to human
             standard
 TIMELINE




            Talking head technology used in
             public terminals

            Highly integrated biosensors



                                                      ITSI
                                              Copyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2010
            Office Automation systems using
             functions similar to brain functions
 TIMELINE




            Satellite location devices implanted
             into humans become
             commonplace

            Machine use of human-like
             creativity
                                                       ITSI
                                               Copyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2010
            Hospitals use virtual queuing systems
 TIMELINE




            Neural networks used for patient
             appointment management

            Multimedia patient records



                                                       ITSI
                                               Copyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2011
            Genetic screening widely used
 TIMELINE




            Lifestyle monitoring and insurance
             linked to medical records

            Operations videoed and stored as part
             of medical record


                                                         ITSI
                                                 Copyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2008 Virtual companies and virtual co-
       operatives dominate

            Purely electronic companies exist -
 TIMELINE




             minimal human involvement

            Spread of nomadic information
             companies leads to global taxation

            Integrated taxation in all transactions

                                                          ITSI
                                                  Copyright@2010
Technological events that will define the
  epoch
2011
            VR overlays on real world
 TIMELINE




            VR escapism is a major social problem

            Direct electronic pleasure production

            Artificial senses, sensors directly
             stimulating nerves

                                                          ITSI
                                                  Copyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2012
            Online surgeries dominate first line
             medical care
 TIMELINE




            Quiz shows screen for implant
             technologies

            Some implants seen as status symbols


                                                           ITSI
                                                   Copyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2015
            Artificial Intelligent teachers get better
             results than most human teachers
 TIMELINE




            3D TV without need for special glasses

            Holographic displays for continuous
             video

            3D video conferencing
                                                           ITSI
                                                   Copyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2016
            Dual geo/cyber-nationality recognised
             internationally
 TIMELINE




            Use of virtual environments for proxy
             space exploration Emotion
             transmission and conversion (feel love
             or anger)

            Digital image overlays enhance
             relationships
                                                            ITSI
                                                    Copyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2017
            Desktop computer as fast as human
             brain
 TIMELINE




            1 Petabit memory chip

            AI technology imitating thinking
             processes of the brain


                                                       ITSI
                                               Copyright@2010
Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2017
            Parallel computer with 1000 million
             processors
 TIMELINE




            ID cards replaced by biometric
              scanning

            Cyberspace covers 75% of
             developed world

                                                      ITSI
                                              Copyright@2010
Get more projections about the future at




                                                   ITSI
                                           Copyright@2010
ITSI
Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2005
            Use of talking head technology for
             conferencing
 TIMELINE




            Net bring and buy exchanges
            Shopping lists automatically compiled by
             supermarkets




                                                           ITSI
                                                   Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2005
            Personal shopping tablets
            People have cyberspace wardrobe
 TIMELINE




            Frequent use of multiple Net identities
             causes personality disorders




                                                              ITSI
                                                      Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2005
            First cellular phone virus becomes
             prevalent
 TIMELINE




            RFIDs become commonplace
            Global electronic currency in use
            Conferencing technology for remote
             socialising in public places




                                                         ITSI
                                                 Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2006
            1000 000 000 Internet users
            People reduce tax liability by being partially
 TIMELINE




             paid in information products
            Replacement of people leads to anti-
             technology subculture




                                                               ITSI
                                                       Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2008
            Digital bathroom mirror
            Magazine tablets
 TIMELINE




            Personalised response from household
             gadgets
            Electronic newspapers




                                                           ITSI
                                                   Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2009
            Automated real life highlight channels on
             digital TV
 TIMELINE




            VR overlays on real world
            Paper and coins largely replaced by
             electronic cash




                                                            ITSI
                                                    Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2010
            Electronic wallpaper
            Mood sensitive light bulbs
 TIMELINE




            Anti-noise technology built into homes
            Programmable noise cancellation earplugs




                                                          ITSI
                                                  Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2011
            Video surveillance of neighbours becomes
             social problem
            Government introduce legislation to protect
 TIMELINE




             local community IP
            Social software, organising functions etc
            Holodeck meeting room




                                                            ITSI
                                                    Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2012
            Electronic cash from internet migrates onto
             high street
 TIMELINE




            Personal banking replaced by agents
            Global barter sub-economy




                                                            ITSI
                                                    Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2013
            Shadow democracy used in community
              networks
            Most tickets electronic
 TIMELINE




            In-store positioning systems enable
              personalised guides




                                                          ITSI
                                                  Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2015
            Spread of nomadic information companies
              leads to global taxation
            Integrated taxation in all transactions
 TIMELINE




            More people using telework centres than
              home working




                                                         ITSI
                                                 Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2017
            Most towns echoed in cyberspace
            Emotion transmission and conversion (feel
             love or anger)
 TIMELINE




            Major pension crises




                                                           ITSI
                                                   Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2025
            Global voting on some issues
            Network based telepathy
 TIMELINE




            VR extensively used in retirement homes




                                                              ITSI
                                                      Copyright@2010
Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2035
            Creation of “The Matrix”
            Experience recording
 TIMELINE




            Real toy soldiers using nanotechnology




                                                             ITSI
                                                     Copyright@2010
How do you create value in this environment?




                                                  ITSI
                                          Copyright@2010

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CyberSphere

  • 2. Agenda ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 3. Agenda ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 4. What will the future look like? “ The future has already happened, it is just unequally distributed.” - William Gibson ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 5. The Relationship Between Strategy and Scenarios The hypotheses of current strategic analysis are considered in the context of a range of plausible futures created through a facilitated process comprising Internalinternal and externalScenario Thinking Business Model both Analysis & experts. Hypothesis Generation Design What Could be What is What Should be ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 6. Agenda  The true impact of the Internet  Which forces will drive the change?   The Ubiquitous Internet   Life in the CyberSphere  Technology & trend forecasting  Technology Strategy & the challenge for companies in the next decade ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 7. In the next decade …   95% of video and DVD stores will close down  You will have your own TV channel   Augmented Reality will redefine how you see the world   TV stations will carry personalised advertisements  Your current cellular number will stop being the primary identifier in your life   Killer Cocktails will dominate the application space ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 8. The primary forces ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 9. The primary forces Moore’s law Processing power will double every 18 months ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 10. The primary forces Bandwidth - will double every 9 months This revolution will mean very low-cost high-bandwidth communication ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 11. More information can today be sent over a single cable in a second than was sent over the entire Internet in 2004 in a month. Bell Labs -> new world speed record for fiber-optic transport. This record, 100 petabits per second kilometer, exceeds previous records such as one achieved in May 2009 of 19 petabyes per second per kilometer (Pbps/km) claimed by AT&T, NEC and Corning. ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 12. How was it done? 155 simultaneous wavelengths of light over a single 7000 km fiber, with optical repeaters every 90 km along the link. Each wavelength carried 100 gigabits per second of traffic to give the fiber a total payload of 15.5 terabits (trillion bits) per second. ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 13. The primary forces Storewidth is doubling every 12 months. ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 14. Abundance in storage space ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 15. Storewidth  "The consumer will have a 5 or 6-terabyte drive by 2009, and will be able to store 25-50,000 CDs —which is all the music on all the labels! That's when we officially reach the point of lunacy!“ - Rob Reid, Founder, Listen.com ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 16. Increased processing power & storewidth ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 17. The result of increasing processing power, bandwidth & storage space Tools for Asynchronous Warfare Unmanned aircraft DNA Analysis ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 18. The primary forces ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 19. Entering the 2nd Half of the Chess Board 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 + 64 + 128 + 256 + 512 + 1024 + ... + 2,147,483,648 On the 64th square of the chessboard alone the number is 263 = 9,223,372,036,854,775,808, or more than two billion times as much on the first half of the chessboard. ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 20. Abundant processing power – Military use   United States Air Force - 2,200 Sony PlayStation 3 (PS3) video-game consoles. Build supercomputer that will be used for research, including the development of high- definition imaging systems for radar.   An iPhone app called Bullet Flight is used by American Special forces.   An IBM supercomputer called Roadrunner, established a new record by operating at more than one petaflop (1,000 trillion calculations a second). Roadrunner is the world’s first “hybrid” supercomputer, having been assembled in part from off-the-shelf equipment, including 12,960 Cell processor chips like those found inside the PS3. It will be used to simulate the behaviour of nuclear weapons. ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 21. Abundance ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 22. Exploiting the abundance ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 23. The ubiquitous Internet will need to be redefined if we are to understand its true potential. ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 24. Visible & Audible spectrum ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 25. The Internet is accessible everywhere on the planet ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 26. New abundances and scarcities  If bandwidth is free, you get a completely different computer architecture and information economy.  Transcending all previous concepts of centralization and decentralization, one global machine will distribute processing to the optimal point and access everything.  Feeding on low power and high bandwidth, the most common computer of the new era will be a digital cellular phone with an IP address. •  George Gilder (1996) ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 27. Everything can have an IP address A world where everything is connected, and everything can have an Internet address. ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 28. Internet addressing IPv4 (e.g 196.23.45.67) support address space for 4.3 thousand million devices IPng (for "new generation"), theoretically enables 340,282,366,920,938,463,463,374,607,431,768,211,456 possible addresses; or 665,570,793,348,866,943,898,599 for each square metre of the Earth.
  • 29. The story so far The Internet is all around us, pervasive, intelligent and invisible, not confined to the narrow boundaries of our mind and experience. ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 30. The building blocks of the Cybersphere ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 31. The building blocks of the Cybersphere ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 32. The building blocks of the Cybersphere ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 33. The CyberSphere becomes part of the Biosphere ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 35. Welcome to the CyberSphere ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 36. Welcome to the CyberSphere ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 38. Oracle of Delphi The Pythia (Greek: Πυθία) was the priestess presiding over the Oracle of Apollo at Delphi, located on the slopes of Mount Parnassus. ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 39. The Oracle for a new millennium ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 40. Questions for the Oracle… What is the exchange rate right now? What will the weather be like in Port Louis, Mauritius? Where can I find the Telecosm handbook? What song is playing right now? Where can I buy the chair I just saw in the Guest House? Where is the closest resort? Where is my car right now? What is happening at my house at this moment? ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 41. The Oracle for a new millennium What is the exchange rate right now? ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 42. The Oracle for a new millennium What will the weather be like in Port Louis, Mauritius? ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 43. The Oracle for a new millennium Where can I find the Telecosm handbook? ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 44. The Oracle for a new millennium What song is playing right now? ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 45. The Oracle for a new millennium Where is the closest resort? ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 46. The Oracle for a new millennium Where is my car? ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 47. The Oracle for a new millennium What is happening at my office? ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 48. The Oracle for a new millennium Where is the closest open restaurant? ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 49. Go110 to launch 1 June 2010 ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 50. Augmented reality is just around the corner Special at Baby City: Special at BabysRus: Pamper nappies (0-3month) Pamper nappies (0-3month) R99.00/40 R80.00/40 ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 51. Augmented reality is just around the corner Special at Baby City: Special at BabysRus: Pamper nappies (0-3month) Pamper nappies (0-3month) R99.00/40 R80.00/40 ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 52. Technology’s impact on time and space Internet Bandwidth Connectivity Quality of Protocol Experience Information Information Information Information Becomes Becomes Becomes Becomes Agnostic to Agnostic to Agnostic to Agnostic to Content Time Space Form ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 54. The Mental space for reframing The The The conceptual present conceptual past future Upframing The Reconstructed And Artefact Consciously theories creative scenarios Abstracted induction domain The Domain History as The current Projections of everyday “objectively” Established Plans discourse recorded Mental map Goals Archetypes Sensory The Non- Collective perception Non-conscious Conscious unconscious Unconscious scenarios domain Landscapes simulation ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 56. Industry Trends in the CyberSphere Coming Network Society Emerging Cloud Computing   1B+ new mobile subscribers   Trillion US$ Internet application mainly in Emerging Markets The market   Totally up to 5B+   Converged value chain: Telecom, subscribers Building blocks Internet, Software, Media, Electronics Ubiquitous Broadband Of the Exploding Digital Space   300M new fixed line BB CyberSphere   Thousand Exabyte (1018) digital subscribers, totally up to 600M info   1.2B new mobile BB   10 times traffic increase, up to subscribers, totally up to 50%-80% annual growth 1.4B 5,000,000,000 subscribers ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 57. Device impact on bandwidth utilisation ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 58. Mobile bandwidth forecasts ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 59. Bandwidth Explosion DoCoMo Mbps Press release March 26th, 2008 200 15 y 5y …“LTE commercial deployment 2010” 180 160 140 100-200x 120 100 80 60 35x 40 20 0 EDGE WCDMA HSPA HSPA+ I-HSPA WiMAX WiMAX LTE 10 MHz 20 MHz 20 MHz SHDSL ADSL ADSL2 ADSL2+ VDSL VDSL2 DSM L3 Faster growth than anytime in history! ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 60. Bandwidth requires changing scale and investment Home Access Aggregation Service router Core Network Impact Today’s Average Bandwidth consumption: 1.5 Mb .1 Mb .1 Mb .05 Mb Tomorrow’s Average Bandwidth consumption: 20.0 Mb 15.0 Mb 4.0 Mb 1.50 Mb Scale Multiplier: 1,500% 15,000% 4,000% 3,000% As bandwidth requirements accelerate, the current unstable industrymodel will come under increasing pressure, requiring significant scaling of the network and further investment ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 61. A new era of wireless connectivity 3.5 – 3.7 GHz WiMax 2.5 – 2.7 GHz WiMax / LTE 2.4 GHz WiFi 2.1 GHz WCDMA 1800 MHz PSM 900 MHz GSM 850 MHz CDMA 2000 692 – 850 MHz UTRAN LTE Normative Range ITSI Bandwidth Copyright@2010
  • 69. Network architecture overview TODAY Evolution Internet Applications Internet Service & Control Service & Control Applications Applications Mobile Fixed Control Mobile MSS / GW TDM Switch SoftSwitch IMS TDM Switch Fixed & Mobile NGN Transport Transport Transport Transport TDM network (ATM, SDH) TDM network (ATM, SDH) Ethernet / IP Legacy TDM Ethernet / IP / DWDM Access Access Access GSM WCDMA POTS/ISDN WiMAX MSAN DSLAM WiMAX GSM HSPA LTE DSLAM MSAN NGOA Customer Customer premises premises WiMAX modem DSL Splitter DSL modem 3G modem DSL Splitter ETH DSL WiMAX modem 2G / 3G device (data only) (data only) modem Terminals Terminals Data Terminals Terminals Data Terminals Mobile Fixed Fixed Fixed / Mobile Mobile POTS ISDN POTS ISDN SIP PC Handheld PC/Xbox Handheld PC/Xbox Phone Phone Phone Phone Phone Client ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 70. Key initiatives on network efficiency Multiple-Access Transmission Evolution RAN, ADSL Backhaul, Transport Multiple network mgmt systems Core Network Operations efficiency Telco2Web Simplification ” Multi data-base “ENE and charging Green & Energy Efficient Networks ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 72. The Digital Value chain App. or ID & Intel Local Users Content Portal Net Core Billing Edge loop Hard OS Browser App. provider ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 73. The Rise of the Stupid Network The Black Box Law Networks will become black boxes: dumb pipes, with intelligence spread to the machines at their peripheries. Past networks, including the phone system, have been "smart" and narrowband. Broadband flourishes with the reverse. ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 74. The Digital Value chain Intelligence Identification Power App. or ID & Intel Local Users Content Portal Net Core Billing Edge loop Hard OS Browser App. provider ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 75. The Digital Value chain Open Open Network Network App. or Local Users Content Billing Portals Net Core OS Browser Intel. ID App. loop Hard provider App. or ID & Intel. Local Users Content Portals Net Core OS Browser App. Billing Edge loop Hard provider Controlled Network ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 76. 2 identifiers in one device Traditional Emerging Cellular number Internet Protocol v6 Sim Card ID Adress controlled by ID controlled by Cellular Network handset Provider manufacturer ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 77. Multi signal devices Your device Mesh 5G? UTRAN LTE will choose the most optimum carrier signal. 3G Bluetooth GSM Software defined radio means that WiFi your base stations can be extremely Ad-hoc flexible and will work on any new protocol. ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 78. 4G – area of options regional wireless access carrier-grade seamless multi-servicesubarchitectures, best effort mobility, nomadic mobility, realtime voice, isolators, IP E2E-QoS continuous mobility in QoS, multimedia protocol heaps wide area incl. voice 4G area of options Fixed Wireless Realtime Wireless NG Mobile Internet Internet Internet Internet Internet Some More Optimum Pure New IP IP IP IP IP UMTS Evolution NG GSM / Mobile GPRS UMTS UMTS + UMTS+ Wireless + Packets E2E-IP to the IP in RAN, IP MBMS, WLAN/UMTS native IP routing to dynamic based interworking, push, MS, IP in CN mobile host, IETF network service presence, IMS Phase 2, provisioning packet bearer protocols only composition ITSI Copyright@2010 (IMS), HSDPA enhancements
  • 80. Terminal capability in 2008 – or sooner Mobile Storage Revolution New Ways of Multiplicity of Local Displaying Content Connectivity Embedded Flash 6MB <<< 128MB Embedded HDD 2GB <<< 50GB + + Memory Card 128MB <<< 16GB   20 GByte is enough for your entire music collection + your entire photo album + 20hrs of home movies + 8 hours of DVD quality movies + a bevy of games ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 81. One click e-Commerce Handheld TV units have bi-directional communication capabilities, which allows for sequential e-Commerce applications. ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 82. Wearable computer interfaces ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 83. Augmented reality ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 84. Telepresence - today and tomorrow ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 85. RFID & Auto Identification Source: www.autoid.org ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 86. Supermarkets & RFIDs ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 87. Payment via Near Field Communication  Early market: Hong Kong Acceptance of Octopus Card for mini and micro- payments throughout the city. Nokia and Sony are ready to launch NFC phones in Hong Kong in 3rd Qtr 2006  . ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 88. Electronic paper ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 89. Amazon Kindle ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 90. The eBook competition is heating up B&N Reader $199 Amazon Sony eBook Kindle Reader $299 $199 Apple iPad $499 ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 91. My Avatar and I ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 92. Avatars and their owners ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 93. Life in Second World ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 95. A model of Change Concreteness Corporate change Interaction Spatial Cognitive How does a piece of chalk External change? Agency Velocity They can be Economic Value damaged, physically degrade Design Technical Political Power They can be consumed environmental Social Density Granularity Value Internal ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 96. Change Dimensions  Concreteness : degree to which value is based on ‘physical’ (e.g. a car) or ‘abstract’ ( transport) things.  Velocity : speed of finding the right connection. (e.g. time to find a service.)  Granularity : the size of a thing that is perceived to have individual value (e.g. CD vs. single MP3.)  Density : (of the factors of production – land, labour, capital, information) Degree to which configurations of these may be ‘optimally’ (un)packed. (e.g. a message that is understandable (unpacked) in many domains is dense.)  Agency : Who or what initiates change and the degree of freedom to act of these. ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 97. Applying the change dimension model   Insurance Concreteness   Television Interaction Spatial Cognitive External Agency Velocity   Car purchasing Economic Value Design Technical Power   Payment Political environmental Social Density Granularity Internal ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 99. Immediate access to a world of information ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 101. A new strategic paradigm Invite & Co-producer Participate View of customer Source Listen & Serve Receiver Make (market) & Sell Production Relationships Organisation of value creation Critical competence Source: Richard Norman & Keith Coates ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 102. No business will be spared   Medical & Health   Banking   Entertainment   Advertising   Education   Motor industry   Communications   FMCG   Tourism   Insurance   Construction   Retail   Travel ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 103. A few challenges for your company   Mini & Micro Transaction processing   Cross selling in a more Concreteness Granular world with Agency being redefined Interaction Spatial Cognitive External   Cannibalisation capability Agency Velocity Economic Value Design Technical   Flexibility to enter Political Power new markets environmental Social Density Granularity Internal   Redefining money ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 105. 2010 Wifi coverage built into public phone terminals TIMELINE Smart Barbie with GPS tracking, personality chip and full sensory input Artificial Intelligent houses which react to occupants ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 106. 2011 Hospitals use virtual queuing systems TIMELINE Neural networks used for patient appointment management Multimedia patient records ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 107. 2011 Home manager computer TIMELINE Chips in packaging control cooking Washing machine aware of contents and selects cycle ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 108. 2011 Electronic wallpaper Full voice interaction with machine TIMELINE Anti-noise technology built into homes Programmable noise cancellation earplugs ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 109. 2011 Voice synthesis quality up to human standard TIMELINE Voice over IP spam calls become prevalent Highly integrated biosensors ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 110. 2012 Video surveillance of neighbours becomes social problem TIMELINE Government introduce legislation to protect local community Intellectual Property from exploitation in the Virtual World ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 111. 2012 Electronic cash from internet migrates onto high street TIMELINE Personal banking replaced by agents Global barter sub-economy ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 112. 2013 Shadow democracy used in community networks Most tickets electronic TIMELINE In-store positioning systems enable personalised guides ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 113. 2015 Artificial Intelligent teachers get better results than most human teachers TIMELINE 3D TV without need for special glasses Holographic displays for continuous video 3D video conferencing ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 114. 2015 Genetic screening widely used TIMELINE Lifestyle monitoring and insurance linked to medical records Operations videoed and stored as part of medical record ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 115. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2015 Spread of nomadic information companies leads to global taxation Integrated taxation in all transactions TIMELINE More people using telework centres than home working ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 116. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2017 Office Automation systems using functions similar to brain functions TIMELINE Satellite location devices implanted into humans become commonplace Machine use of human-like creativity ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 117. 2018 Virtual companies and virtual co-operatives dominate TIMELINE Purely electronic companies exist - minimal human involvement ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 118. 2018 VR overlays on real world TIMELINE VR escapism is a major social problem ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 119. 2018 Online surgeries dominate first line medical care TIMELINE Quiz shows screen for implant technologies Some implants seen as status symbols ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 120. 2018 ID cards replaced by biometric scanning TIMELINE Cyberspace covers 75% of developed world ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 121. 2020 Global voting on some issues Network based telepathy TIMELINE VR extensively used in retirement homes ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 122. 2025 Creation of “The Matrix” Experience recording TIMELINE Real toy soldiers using nanotechnology ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 123. Business Opportunities in a world of abundance   Personalised TV advertisements   Shared RAN with Government / Competitors   Video glasses   “Time share” Virtual Presence   Free in-company cellular calls via Piconets / Femtocells to counter SIP over WiFi   Paris Metro Pricing to counter Skype over 3G / LTE   Personal Cockpit to allow web agents to gather all relevant information on your behalf   Management of all your IP addresses via your own cockpit ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 124. Universal Resource Locater (URL) 125.14.123.123 is actually www.cnn.com So, if your devices are called 196.14.23.45.13.126 198.34.56.78.123.235 or 198.34.56.78.235.12 What prohibits us then from giving all our devices an easy-to-remember name? Which bring us to the next question: ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 125. What will be the most important Internet address in my life? Pieter.Geldenhuys.rsa.name phone.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name car.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name home.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name Registrations for rsa.name opened 1st Q of 2004 ! ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 127. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2008 Smart Barbie with personality chip and full sensory input TIMELINE Artificial Intelligent houses which react to occupants Expert systems surpass human learning and logic abilities ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 128. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2009 Home manager computer Chips in packaging control cooking TIMELINE Washing machine aware of contents and selects cycle ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 129. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2009 Windows with holographic coatings to re-direct sunlight TIMELINE Virtual windows Full voice interaction with machine ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 130. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2010 Voice synthesis quality up to human standard TIMELINE Talking head technology used in public terminals Highly integrated biosensors ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 131. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2010 Office Automation systems using functions similar to brain functions TIMELINE Satellite location devices implanted into humans become commonplace Machine use of human-like creativity ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 132. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2010 Hospitals use virtual queuing systems TIMELINE Neural networks used for patient appointment management Multimedia patient records ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 133. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2011 Genetic screening widely used TIMELINE Lifestyle monitoring and insurance linked to medical records Operations videoed and stored as part of medical record ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 134. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2008 Virtual companies and virtual co- operatives dominate Purely electronic companies exist - TIMELINE minimal human involvement Spread of nomadic information companies leads to global taxation Integrated taxation in all transactions ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 135. Technological events that will define the epoch 2011 VR overlays on real world TIMELINE VR escapism is a major social problem Direct electronic pleasure production Artificial senses, sensors directly stimulating nerves ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 136. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2012 Online surgeries dominate first line medical care TIMELINE Quiz shows screen for implant technologies Some implants seen as status symbols ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 137. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2015 Artificial Intelligent teachers get better results than most human teachers TIMELINE 3D TV without need for special glasses Holographic displays for continuous video 3D video conferencing ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 138. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2016 Dual geo/cyber-nationality recognised internationally TIMELINE Use of virtual environments for proxy space exploration Emotion transmission and conversion (feel love or anger) Digital image overlays enhance relationships ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 139. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2017 Desktop computer as fast as human brain TIMELINE 1 Petabit memory chip AI technology imitating thinking processes of the brain ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 140. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2017 Parallel computer with 1000 million processors TIMELINE ID cards replaced by biometric scanning Cyberspace covers 75% of developed world ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 141. Get more projections about the future at ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 143. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2005 Use of talking head technology for conferencing TIMELINE Net bring and buy exchanges Shopping lists automatically compiled by supermarkets ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 144. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2005 Personal shopping tablets People have cyberspace wardrobe TIMELINE Frequent use of multiple Net identities causes personality disorders ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 145. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2005 First cellular phone virus becomes prevalent TIMELINE RFIDs become commonplace Global electronic currency in use Conferencing technology for remote socialising in public places ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 146. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2006 1000 000 000 Internet users People reduce tax liability by being partially TIMELINE paid in information products Replacement of people leads to anti- technology subculture ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 147. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2008 Digital bathroom mirror Magazine tablets TIMELINE Personalised response from household gadgets Electronic newspapers ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 148. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2009 Automated real life highlight channels on digital TV TIMELINE VR overlays on real world Paper and coins largely replaced by electronic cash ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 149. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2010 Electronic wallpaper Mood sensitive light bulbs TIMELINE Anti-noise technology built into homes Programmable noise cancellation earplugs ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 150. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2011 Video surveillance of neighbours becomes social problem Government introduce legislation to protect TIMELINE local community IP Social software, organising functions etc Holodeck meeting room ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 151. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2012 Electronic cash from internet migrates onto high street TIMELINE Personal banking replaced by agents Global barter sub-economy ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 152. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2013 Shadow democracy used in community networks Most tickets electronic TIMELINE In-store positioning systems enable personalised guides ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 153. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2015 Spread of nomadic information companies leads to global taxation Integrated taxation in all transactions TIMELINE More people using telework centres than home working ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 154. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2017 Most towns echoed in cyberspace Emotion transmission and conversion (feel love or anger) TIMELINE Major pension crises ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 155. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2025 Global voting on some issues Network based telepathy TIMELINE VR extensively used in retirement homes ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 156. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2035 Creation of “The Matrix” Experience recording TIMELINE Real toy soldiers using nanotechnology ITSI Copyright@2010
  • 157. How do you create value in this environment? ITSI Copyright@2010