1. Beyond Cyberspace
The future is here and now. It is all around us, as pervasive as the oxygen we breathe, enabling those in the know with instant communication to the abundant resource of information and interconnection we call the Internet. The Internet is all around us, pervasive, intelligent and invisible, not confined to the narrow boundaries of our mind and experience.
What happens next as we finally start utilizing this ubiquitous new reality as we redefine business models and communication infrastructures? What happens to our jobs, money and ideas of value? How will this new reality change our ideas of banking, retail, intelligent homes, entertainment, and individuality? What will happen when organisations finally realise that the Internet is far more than images on a computer screen, but an invisible environment that will change logistics, broadcasting, retail, personalisation & the very basis of your competitive environment? What will be the reality Beyond CyberSpace?
2. Enter the CyberSphere (the sequel to the Beyond Cyberspace presentation)
Welcome to the Cybersphere, a world where the physical and digital dimensions have become ONE. A world where physical reality is electronic, connected, intelligent and invisible. A world with a continuously evolving relationship between the physical and the digital and a world where everything, and we mean everything, has an internet address and a link to the Internet.
Welcome to a world of abundant bandwidth, storage space and processing power. A world where crumple zones, waiting lines, tickets and walls are all virtual. A world where information is symmetrical, business models have power shifted and humans have become part of the Internet. This is a world where our definition of democracy has returned to its true roots, and where the battle between the sovereign individual and the sovereign state has become a reality.
Imagine a world where the virtual & physical space is morphed into one, where all the electronic technologies, Internet, payment systems, telephones, computing devices, media channels, security systems, digital personal identities and augmented realities all converge into a single seamless system.
When the infrastructure is ubiquitous and operates as a utility, like water or electricity, we will move beyond the current paradigm of cyberspace. What happens when information and knowledge are accessible to all who choose to look? What happens when eBusiness, eHealth and eLiteracy have become an invisible normality? What happens after the Ubiquitous Internet has irreparably changed our very understanding of the world we live in? These are the questions that will be answered in the Era of the CyberSphere.
4. What will the future look like?
“ The future has already happened,
it is just unequally distributed.”
- William Gibson
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5. The Relationship Between Strategy and Scenarios
The hypotheses of current strategic analysis are considered in the context of
a range of plausible futures created through a facilitated process comprising
Internalinternal and externalScenario Thinking Business Model
both Analysis & experts.
Hypothesis Generation Design
What Could be
What is What Should be
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6. Agenda
The true impact of the Internet
Which forces will drive the change?
The Ubiquitous Internet
Life in the CyberSphere
Technology & trend forecasting
Technology Strategy & the challenge for
companies in the next decade
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7. In the next decade …
95% of video and DVD stores will close down
You will have your own TV channel
Augmented Reality will redefine how you see
the world
TV stations will carry personalised
advertisements
Your current cellular number will stop being the
primary identifier in your life
Killer Cocktails will dominate the application
space
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10. The primary forces
Bandwidth
- will double every 9 months
This revolution will mean very
low-cost
high-bandwidth
communication
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11. More information can today be sent over a single
cable in a second than was sent over the entire
Internet in 2004 in a month.
Bell Labs -> new world speed record for fiber-optic transport.
This record, 100 petabits per second kilometer,
exceeds previous records such as one achieved in
May 2009 of 19 petabyes per second per kilometer
(Pbps/km) claimed by AT&T, NEC and Corning.
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12. How was it done?
155 simultaneous wavelengths of light over a single 7000 km
fiber, with optical repeaters every 90 km along the link. Each
wavelength carried 100 gigabits per second of traffic to give
the fiber a total payload of 15.5 terabits (trillion bits) per
second.
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13. The primary forces
Storewidth is doubling
every 12 months.
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15. Storewidth
"The consumer will have a
5 or 6-terabyte drive by
2009, and will be able to
store
25-50,000 CDs
—which is all the music on
all the labels!
That's when we officially
reach the point of lunacy!“
- Rob Reid, Founder, Listen.com
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17. The result of increasing processing power,
bandwidth & storage space
Tools for Asynchronous Warfare
Unmanned aircraft
DNA Analysis
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19. Entering the 2nd Half of the Chess Board
1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32
+ 64 + 128 + 256 + 512
+ 1024 + ... + 2,147,483,648
On the 64th square of the
chessboard alone the
number is 263 =
9,223,372,036,854,775,808,
or more than two billion times
as much on the first
half of the chessboard.
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20. Abundant processing power – Military use
United States Air Force - 2,200 Sony PlayStation 3 (PS3)
video-game consoles. Build supercomputer that will be
used for research, including the development of high-
definition imaging systems for radar.
An iPhone app called Bullet Flight is used by American
Special forces.
An IBM supercomputer called Roadrunner, established a
new record by operating at more than one petaflop (1,000
trillion calculations a second). Roadrunner is the world’s
first “hybrid” supercomputer, having been assembled in
part from off-the-shelf equipment, including 12,960 Cell
processor chips like those found inside the PS3. It will be
used to simulate the behaviour of nuclear weapons.
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25. The Internet is accessible everywhere on the planet
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26. New abundances and scarcities
If bandwidth is free, you get a completely different
computer architecture and information economy.
Transcending all previous concepts of centralization and
decentralization, one global machine will distribute
processing to the optimal point and access everything.
Feeding on low power and high bandwidth, the most
common computer of the new era will be a digital cellular
phone with an IP address.
• George Gilder (1996)
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27. Everything can have an IP address
A world where everything is connected, and
everything can have an Internet address.
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28. Internet addressing
IPv4 (e.g 196.23.45.67) support address
space for 4.3 thousand million devices
IPng (for "new generation"), theoretically enables
340,282,366,920,938,463,463,374,607,431,768,211,456
possible addresses; or
665,570,793,348,866,943,898,599
for each square metre of the Earth.
29. The story so far
The Internet is all around us,
pervasive,
intelligent
and
invisible,
not confined to the narrow boundaries
of our mind and experience.
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38. Oracle of Delphi
The Pythia (Greek: Πυθία) was the priestess presiding
over the Oracle of Apollo at Delphi, located on the
slopes of Mount Parnassus.
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40. Questions for the Oracle…
What is the exchange rate right now?
What will the weather be like in Port Louis, Mauritius?
Where can I find the Telecosm handbook?
What song is playing right now?
Where can I buy the chair I just saw in the Guest House?
Where is the closest resort?
Where is my car right now?
What is happening at my house at this moment?
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41. The Oracle for a new millennium
What is the exchange rate right now?
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42. The Oracle for a new millennium
What will the weather be like in Port Louis, Mauritius?
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43. The Oracle for a new millennium
Where can I find the Telecosm handbook?
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44. The Oracle for a new millennium
What song is playing right now?
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45. The Oracle for a new millennium
Where is the closest resort?
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46. The Oracle for a new millennium
Where is my car?
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47. The Oracle for a new millennium
What is happening at my office?
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48. The Oracle for a new millennium
Where is the closest open restaurant?
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50. Augmented reality is just around the corner
Special at Baby City:
Special at BabysRus:
Pamper nappies (0-3month)
Pamper nappies (0-3month)
R99.00/40
R80.00/40
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51. Augmented reality is just around the corner
Special at Baby City:
Special at BabysRus:
Pamper nappies (0-3month)
Pamper nappies (0-3month)
R99.00/40
R80.00/40
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52. Technology’s impact on time and space
Internet Bandwidth Connectivity Quality of
Protocol Experience
Information Information Information Information
Becomes Becomes Becomes Becomes
Agnostic to Agnostic to Agnostic to Agnostic to
Content Time Space Form
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54. The Mental space for reframing
The The The
conceptual present conceptual
past future
Upframing
The
Reconstructed And Artefact
Consciously
theories creative scenarios
Abstracted
induction
domain
The Domain History as The current Projections
of everyday “objectively” Established Plans
discourse recorded Mental map Goals
Archetypes Sensory
The Non-
Collective perception Non-conscious
Conscious
unconscious Unconscious scenarios
domain
Landscapes simulation ITSI
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56. Industry Trends in the CyberSphere
Coming Network Society Emerging Cloud Computing
1B+ new mobile subscribers
Trillion US$ Internet application
mainly in Emerging Markets
The market
Totally up to 5B+
Converged value chain: Telecom,
subscribers
Building blocks Internet, Software, Media,
Electronics
Ubiquitous Broadband
Of the
Exploding Digital Space
300M new fixed line BB CyberSphere
Thousand Exabyte (1018) digital
subscribers, totally up to
600M info
1.2B new mobile BB
10 times traffic increase, up to
subscribers, totally up to 50%-80% annual growth
1.4B
5,000,000,000 subscribers
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60. Bandwidth requires changing scale and investment
Home Access Aggregation Service router Core
Network
Impact
Today’s Average Bandwidth consumption: 1.5 Mb .1 Mb .1 Mb .05 Mb
Tomorrow’s Average Bandwidth consumption: 20.0 Mb 15.0 Mb 4.0 Mb 1.50 Mb
Scale Multiplier: 1,500% 15,000% 4,000% 3,000%
As bandwidth requirements accelerate, the
current unstable industrymodel will come under
increasing pressure, requiring significant scaling
of the network and further investment
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61. A new era of wireless connectivity
3.5 – 3.7 GHz WiMax
2.5 – 2.7 GHz WiMax / LTE
2.4 GHz WiFi
2.1 GHz WCDMA
1800 MHz PSM
900 MHz GSM
850 MHz CDMA 2000
692 – 850 MHz UTRAN LTE
Normative
Range ITSI
Bandwidth Copyright@2010
72. The Digital Value chain
App. or
ID & Intel Local Users
Content Portal Net Core Billing Edge loop Hard
OS Browser App.
provider
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73. The Rise of the Stupid Network
The Black Box Law
Networks will become black boxes: dumb pipes,
with intelligence spread to the machines at their
peripheries.
Past networks, including the phone system, have
been "smart" and narrowband.
Broadband flourishes with the reverse.
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74. The Digital Value chain
Intelligence
Identification
Power
App. or
ID & Intel Local Users
Content Portal Net Core Billing Edge loop Hard
OS Browser App.
provider
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75. The Digital Value chain
Open Open
Network Network
App. or
Local Users
Content Billing Portals Net Core OS Browser Intel. ID App.
loop Hard
provider
App. or
ID & Intel. Local Users
Content Portals Net Core OS Browser App.
Billing Edge loop Hard
provider
Controlled Network ITSI
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76. 2 identifiers in one device
Traditional Emerging
Cellular number Internet Protocol v6
Sim Card ID Adress
controlled by ID controlled by
Cellular Network handset
Provider manufacturer
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77. Multi signal devices
Your device Mesh 5G?
UTRAN LTE
will choose
the most optimum
carrier signal. 3G
Bluetooth
GSM
Software defined
radio means that
WiFi
your base stations
can be extremely
Ad-hoc flexible and will work
on any new protocol.
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78. 4G – area of options
regional
wireless access carrier-grade seamless multi-servicesubarchitectures,
best effort mobility,
nomadic mobility, realtime voice, isolators,
IP E2E-QoS continuous mobility in
QoS, multimedia protocol heaps
wide area
incl. voice
4G area of options
Fixed Wireless Realtime Wireless NG
Mobile Internet
Internet Internet Internet
Internet
Some More Optimum Pure New
IP IP IP IP IP
UMTS Evolution
NG
GSM /
Mobile
GPRS UMTS UMTS + UMTS+
Wireless
+
Packets
E2E-IP to the IP in RAN, IP MBMS, WLAN/UMTS native IP routing to dynamic
based interworking, push,
MS, IP in CN mobile host, IETF network
service presence, IMS Phase 2,
provisioning packet bearer
protocols only composition ITSI
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(IMS), HSDPA enhancements
80. Terminal capability in 2008 – or sooner
Mobile Storage Revolution New Ways of Multiplicity of Local
Displaying Content Connectivity
Embedded Flash
6MB <<< 128MB
Embedded HDD
2GB <<< 50GB
+ +
Memory Card
128MB <<< 16GB
20 GByte is enough for your entire music collection + your entire photo
album + 20hrs of home movies + 8 hours of DVD quality movies + a bevy of
games ITSI
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81. One click e-Commerce
Handheld TV units have bi-directional communication
capabilities, which allows for sequential e-Commerce
applications.
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87. Payment via Near Field Communication
Early market: Hong Kong
Acceptance of Octopus Card for mini and micro-
payments
throughout the city. Nokia and Sony are ready to
launch NFC phones in Hong Kong in 3rd Qtr 2006
.
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95. A model of Change
Concreteness
Corporate change
Interaction
Spatial
Cognitive
How does a piece of chalk External
change? Agency Velocity
They can be
Economic Value
damaged,
physically degrade Design Technical
Political Power
They can be
consumed
environmental
Social Density Granularity
Value Internal
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96. Change Dimensions
Concreteness : degree to which value is based on
‘physical’ (e.g. a car) or ‘abstract’ ( transport) things.
Velocity : speed of finding the right connection. (e.g.
time to find a service.)
Granularity : the size of a thing that is perceived to
have individual value (e.g. CD vs. single MP3.)
Density : (of the factors of production – land, labour,
capital, information) Degree to which configurations of
these may be ‘optimally’ (un)packed. (e.g. a message
that is understandable (unpacked) in many domains is
dense.)
Agency : Who or what initiates change and the
degree of freedom to act of these.
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97. Applying the change dimension model
Insurance
Concreteness
Television Interaction
Spatial
Cognitive
External
Agency Velocity
Car purchasing
Economic Value
Design Technical
Power
Payment Political
environmental
Social Density Granularity
Internal
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101. A new strategic paradigm
Invite &
Co-producer
Participate
View of customer
Source Listen &
Serve
Receiver Make
(market)
& Sell
Production Relationships Organisation
of value creation
Critical competence
Source: Richard Norman & Keith Coates
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102. No business will be spared
Medical & Health
Banking
Entertainment
Advertising
Education
Motor industry
Communications
FMCG
Tourism
Insurance
Construction
Retail
Travel
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103. A few challenges for your company
Mini & Micro Transaction processing
Cross selling in a more
Concreteness
Granular world with
Agency being redefined Interaction
Spatial
Cognitive
External
Cannibalisation capability Agency Velocity
Economic Value
Design Technical
Flexibility to enter Political Power
new markets environmental
Social Density Granularity
Internal
Redefining money
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105. 2010
Wifi coverage built into public
phone terminals
TIMELINE
Smart Barbie with GPS tracking,
personality chip and full sensory
input
Artificial Intelligent houses which
react to occupants
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106. 2011
Hospitals use virtual queuing
systems
TIMELINE
Neural networks used for
patient appointment
management
Multimedia patient records
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107. 2011
Home manager computer
TIMELINE
Chips in packaging control
cooking
Washing machine aware of
contents and selects
cycle
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108. 2011
Electronic wallpaper
Full voice interaction with machine
TIMELINE
Anti-noise technology built into homes
Programmable noise cancellation earplugs
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109. 2011
Voice synthesis quality up
to human standard
TIMELINE
Voice over IP spam calls
become prevalent
Highly integrated
biosensors
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110. 2012
Video surveillance of neighbours becomes
social problem
TIMELINE
Government introduce legislation to protect
local community Intellectual Property from
exploitation in the Virtual World
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111. 2012
Electronic cash from internet migrates onto
high street
TIMELINE
Personal banking replaced by agents
Global barter sub-economy
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112. 2013
Shadow democracy used in community
networks
Most tickets electronic
TIMELINE
In-store positioning systems enable
personalised guides
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113. 2015
Artificial Intelligent teachers get better
results than most human teachers
TIMELINE
3D TV without need for special glasses
Holographic displays for continuous video
3D video conferencing
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114. 2015
Genetic screening widely used
TIMELINE
Lifestyle monitoring and insurance linked to
medical records
Operations videoed and stored as part of
medical record
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115. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2015
Spread of nomadic information companies
leads to global taxation
Integrated taxation in all transactions
TIMELINE
More people using telework centres than
home working
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116. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2017
Office Automation systems using
functions similar to brain functions
TIMELINE
Satellite location devices implanted into
humans become commonplace
Machine use of human-like creativity
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117. 2018
Virtual companies and virtual co-operatives
dominate
TIMELINE
Purely electronic companies exist - minimal
human involvement
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118. 2018
VR overlays on real world
TIMELINE
VR escapism is a major social problem
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119. 2018
Online surgeries dominate first line medical
care
TIMELINE
Quiz shows screen for implant technologies
Some implants seen as status symbols
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120. 2018
ID cards replaced by
biometric scanning
TIMELINE
Cyberspace covers 75%
of developed world
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121. 2020
Global voting on some issues
Network based telepathy
TIMELINE
VR extensively used in retirement homes
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122. 2025
Creation of “The Matrix”
Experience recording
TIMELINE
Real toy soldiers using nanotechnology
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123. Business Opportunities in a world of abundance
Personalised TV advertisements
Shared RAN with Government / Competitors
Video glasses
“Time share” Virtual Presence
Free in-company cellular calls via Piconets /
Femtocells to counter SIP over WiFi
Paris Metro Pricing to counter Skype over 3G / LTE
Personal Cockpit to allow web agents to gather all
relevant information on your behalf
Management of all your IP addresses via your own
cockpit
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124. Universal Resource Locater (URL)
125.14.123.123 is actually www.cnn.com
So, if your devices are called
196.14.23.45.13.126
198.34.56.78.123.235 or
198.34.56.78.235.12
What prohibits us then from giving all our devices
an easy-to-remember name?
Which bring us to the next question:
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125. What will be the most important Internet address in my life?
Pieter.Geldenhuys.rsa.name phone.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name
car.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name
home.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name
Registrations for rsa.name opened 1st Q of 2004 !
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127. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2008
Smart Barbie with personality chip and
full sensory input
TIMELINE
Artificial Intelligent houses which
react to occupants
Expert systems surpass human
learning and logic abilities
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128. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2009 Home manager computer
Chips in packaging control cooking
TIMELINE
Washing machine aware of contents
and selects cycle
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129. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2009
Windows with holographic coatings
to re-direct sunlight
TIMELINE
Virtual windows
Full voice interaction with machine
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130. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2010
Voice synthesis quality up to human
standard
TIMELINE
Talking head technology used in
public terminals
Highly integrated biosensors
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131. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2010
Office Automation systems using
functions similar to brain functions
TIMELINE
Satellite location devices implanted
into humans become
commonplace
Machine use of human-like
creativity
ITSI
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132. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2010
Hospitals use virtual queuing systems
TIMELINE
Neural networks used for patient
appointment management
Multimedia patient records
ITSI
Copyright@2010
133. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2011
Genetic screening widely used
TIMELINE
Lifestyle monitoring and insurance
linked to medical records
Operations videoed and stored as part
of medical record
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134. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2008 Virtual companies and virtual co-
operatives dominate
Purely electronic companies exist -
TIMELINE
minimal human involvement
Spread of nomadic information
companies leads to global taxation
Integrated taxation in all transactions
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135. Technological events that will define the
epoch
2011
VR overlays on real world
TIMELINE
VR escapism is a major social problem
Direct electronic pleasure production
Artificial senses, sensors directly
stimulating nerves
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136. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2012
Online surgeries dominate first line
medical care
TIMELINE
Quiz shows screen for implant
technologies
Some implants seen as status symbols
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137. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2015
Artificial Intelligent teachers get better
results than most human teachers
TIMELINE
3D TV without need for special glasses
Holographic displays for continuous
video
3D video conferencing
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138. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2016
Dual geo/cyber-nationality recognised
internationally
TIMELINE
Use of virtual environments for proxy
space exploration Emotion
transmission and conversion (feel love
or anger)
Digital image overlays enhance
relationships
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139. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2017
Desktop computer as fast as human
brain
TIMELINE
1 Petabit memory chip
AI technology imitating thinking
processes of the brain
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140. Will this be life in the Cybersphere?
2017
Parallel computer with 1000 million
processors
TIMELINE
ID cards replaced by biometric
scanning
Cyberspace covers 75% of
developed world
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143. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2005
Use of talking head technology for
conferencing
TIMELINE
Net bring and buy exchanges
Shopping lists automatically compiled by
supermarkets
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144. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2005
Personal shopping tablets
People have cyberspace wardrobe
TIMELINE
Frequent use of multiple Net identities
causes personality disorders
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145. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2005
First cellular phone virus becomes
prevalent
TIMELINE
RFIDs become commonplace
Global electronic currency in use
Conferencing technology for remote
socialising in public places
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146. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2006
1000 000 000 Internet users
People reduce tax liability by being partially
TIMELINE
paid in information products
Replacement of people leads to anti-
technology subculture
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147. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2008
Digital bathroom mirror
Magazine tablets
TIMELINE
Personalised response from household
gadgets
Electronic newspapers
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148. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2009
Automated real life highlight channels on
digital TV
TIMELINE
VR overlays on real world
Paper and coins largely replaced by
electronic cash
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149. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2010
Electronic wallpaper
Mood sensitive light bulbs
TIMELINE
Anti-noise technology built into homes
Programmable noise cancellation earplugs
ITSI
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150. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2011
Video surveillance of neighbours becomes
social problem
Government introduce legislation to protect
TIMELINE
local community IP
Social software, organising functions etc
Holodeck meeting room
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151. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2012
Electronic cash from internet migrates onto
high street
TIMELINE
Personal banking replaced by agents
Global barter sub-economy
ITSI
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152. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2013
Shadow democracy used in community
networks
Most tickets electronic
TIMELINE
In-store positioning systems enable
personalised guides
ITSI
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153. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2015
Spread of nomadic information companies
leads to global taxation
Integrated taxation in all transactions
TIMELINE
More people using telework centres than
home working
ITSI
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154. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2017
Most towns echoed in cyberspace
Emotion transmission and conversion (feel
love or anger)
TIMELINE
Major pension crises
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155. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2025
Global voting on some issues
Network based telepathy
TIMELINE
VR extensively used in retirement homes
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156. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere?
2035
Creation of “The Matrix”
Experience recording
TIMELINE
Real toy soldiers using nanotechnology
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157. How do you create value in this environment?
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