Week 2 report on the impact of demonetization on Indian Pharma by AIOCD AWACS.

1. Impact of Demonetization
Week 2

2. Total Sales Value Trend
• Total sales remain sluggish compared to same period of Oct.
• The trough & peak of 1st Nov & 8th Nov could average to 51 Cr, so 48.5 and
47.9 are marginal drop from average of week ending 1st Nov & 8th Nov
• The monthly impact could be 4-5% drop in sales, is this trend continues in last
week of Nov
• From 25th Nov old Rs. 1000 notes are not accepted at Chemist counters –
which may have a further negative impact

3. Acute Therapy Trend
• Acute therapy has been hugely impacted
• Even in week 1 – the impact was severe and sales were lower than the
Diwali week, which is generally annually the lowest sales!
• The trend continued in Week 2 – where acute sales remain subdued
• Companies having high Acute weightage will experience a sharper dip and
sales could be down around 20% in Nov compared to Oct

4. Chronic Therapy Trend
• Chronic therapy has been the biggest beneficiary – which clearly shows
some chronic patients have used old notes to prepone their medicine
supply for 2-3 months!
• Week 1 & 2 of demonetization has shown significantly higher sales than
corresponding period in Oct as well as much higher than the Diwali week
trough of 14.1 Cr.
• Overall chronic therapy may gain 10-15% additional sales in Nov

5. Sub-Chronic Therapy Trend
• Sub-Chronic includes many Gastro Products, Vitamins, Osteoporosis drugs,
Osteoarthritis medications etc.
• Sub-Chronic is the most stable and steady trend.
• The dip is marginal and higher than Diwali week.
• Week 2 is a marginal rise than week 1 of demonetization.
• There is no major change in Nov over Oct, likely for Sub-Chronic

6. Inventory Days
• Inventory Days remain high – overall and therapy wise
• The extended credit period offered by several companies is helping
• Acute with subdued sales, shows highest inventory days – around 45
• Chronic is having lowest inventory days – but a comfortable 34 days.
• No shortage of medicines likely in any part of the country