Irish Residential Rent Analysis

Irish Residential Rent
Analysis
An analysis of the state of and the trends
affecting residential property rental in
Ireland and especially in Dublin
Alan McSweeney
June 2018
http://ie.linkedin.com/in/alanmcsweeney

Irish Residential Rent Analysis
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Contents
Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 3
Rent Data Sources................................................................................................................................. 3
Who Rents Nationally And In Dublin?.................................................................................................. 6
National Renter Profile...................................................................................................................... 7
Dublin Renter Profile ........................................................................................................................ 9
Numbers of Rental Units..................................................................................................................... 12
RTB Number of Registered Tenancies ............................................................................................. 13
Central Bank Buy To Let (BTL) Mortgages ..................................................................................... 16
BPFI Residential Investment Lending (RIL) Mortgages.................................................................. 17
Rent Indices........................................................................................................................................ 21
CSO Consumer Price Index .............................................................................................................. 22
Combining the Rent Indices............................................................................................................. 23
Rent Amounts ................................................................................................................................. 24
Rent Projections.................................................................................................................................. 28
Rent Index Projections.................................................................................................................... 28
Linking Rent Price Changes to Changes in the Consumer Price Index............................................... 30
Daft Rent Index Notes ........................................................................................................................ 32
How Many Renters Are There?............................................................................................................ 35
What Is The Effect Of Airbnb On The Residential Rental Market?...................................................... 41
The Rise of the Institutional Residential Property Letting Investor .................................................... 42
What is The Future for Renting and Renters? ..................................................................................... 45
Summary............................................................................................................................................. 47

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Introduction
The purpose of this analysis is to assess trends in residential renting and rent prices.
This is a macro-level analysis based on a variety of publically available data sources.
The issue of prices for rental property in Ireland and, more particularly in Dublin and the other larger
cities, and their rate of increase have dominated property-related discussions.
The purpose of this brief analysis is not to discuss the rights and wrongs of rental prices and their
increases. It is to look at the data to verify the consistency of the views they present.
Rent Data Sources
This analysis aggregates data from multiple sources to attempt to create a more complete picture of
renting in Ireland. Schematically, the main sources of data used in this analysis are:
These sources of publically-available rental data are:
 Daft.ie – report published quarterly from Q4 2006 onwards in PDF format on the asking prices for
rental properties advertised on the Daft.ie website. The report contains a national rent index for all
locations and property types from Jan 20072 onwards (though no one report contains the full time
series and the index baseline changes from 2007 and 2012) and asking prices for various types of
rental property for various locations for the individual quarter. Current and historical reports are
available from https://www.daft.ie/report. Daft is a commercial property web site and presumably

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uses its rent index to develop and maintain its brand. See page 32 for more details on the issues and
inconsistencies with the Daft rental index.
 Central Statistics Office (CSO) – the relevant CSO data
1. The consumer price index time series is available at
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Database/eirestat/Consumer%20Prices%20Monthly%20Series/C
onsumer%20Prices%20Monthly%20Series_statbank.asp . The most relevant one is the monthly
time series CPM15: Harmonised Consumer Price Index by Commodity Group, Month and
Statistic
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=CPM15&PLanguag
e=0. This contains an overall consumer price index and individual sub-indices based on the UN
COICOP classification (Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose). The
CPI data starts in Jan 1996.
More details on the UN COICOP (Classification of Individual Consumption According to
Purpose) classification are available from https://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcst.asp?Cl=5.
The relevant code for rent is COICOP code 04.1 – see
https://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcs.asp?Cl=5&Lg=1&Co=04.1.
2. Housing profile information from the 2011 and 2016 census is available from
https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Database/eirestat/Profile%201%20-
%20Housing%20in%20Ireland/Profile%201%20-%20Housing%20in%20Ireland_statbank.asp
3. Annual population estimates are available at
https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Database/eirestat/Annual%20Population%20Estimates/Annua
l%20Population%20Estimates_statbank.asp
 Residential Tenancies Board (RTB) – they publish a number of sets of data, again in different
formats and with different content
1. An historical list of all registered tenancies downloadable for 47 individual regions in XLS format
available from https://portal.rtb.ie/public_registrations_dublin.aspx. This is a point-in-time
snapshot and does not contain historical data. The information is not available from published
links on the RTB web site. The RTB no longer publish this data. It was last updated on 25 Mar
2017.
2. Monthly, quarterly and annual time series from the end of 2017 that contain the rental amount
paid classified by property type, number of bedrooms and location available from
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Database/eirestat/Residential%20Tenancies%20Board%20(RT
B)/Residential%20Tenancies%20Board%20(RTB)_statbank.asp.
3. Quarterly rent index published in PDF format that contains a national rent index where the
value at 2007Q3 is 100 available from
https://onestopshop.rtb.ie/images/uploads/Comms%20and%20Research/RTB_Rent_Index_2017
_Q3_Final.pdf.
 Banking and Payments Federation of Ireland (BPFI) – they publish information on mortgages
including buy-to-let mortgages at https://www.bpfi.ie/publications/bpfi-mortgage-drawdowns/

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 Central Bank – they publish information on mortgage arrears including buy-to-let mortgages at
https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/mortgage-
arrears
 Property Services Regulatory Authority (PRSA) – they publish a register of property purchases from
January 2012 - https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/pprweb.nsf/page/ppr-home-en
 AirBnB - Inside Airbnb publish details on AirBnB listings for Dublin. The latest data is available for
18 February, 2017 - http://insideairbnb.com/get-the-data.html
However, there are substantial data issues and data gaps that make compiling a complete view
problematic.
The intervals covered by these data sources are:
BPFI Central
Bank BTL
RTB Rent
Index
Daft Rent
Index
RTB
Detailed
Tenancies
PRSA
Property
Price
Register
Inside
Airbnb
CSO CPI CSO
Census
2003 Q1
2003 Q2
2003 Q3
2003 Q4
2004 Q1
2004 Q2
2004 Q3
2004 Q4
2005 Q1
2005 Q2
2005 Q3
2005 Q4
2006 Q1
2006 Q2
2006 Q3
2006 Q4
2007 Q1
2007 Q2
2007 Q3
2007 Q4

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2008 Q1
2008 Q2
2008 Q3
2008 Q4
2009 Q1
2009 Q2
2009 Q3
2009 Q4
2010 Q1
2010 Q2
2010 Q3
2010 Q4
2011 Q1
2011 Q2
2011 Q3
2011 Q4
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
2018 Q1
The purpose of looking at this wider set of information is to attempt to build a more complete view of
who rents in Ireland (and more specifically Dublin), what are the trends in rent prices and numbers of
rental properties) and what are the trends in demand for rental properties.
Who Rents Nationally And In Dublin?
Information of the profile of renters provides a context for the subsequent analysis.
The only public source for numbers of renters by age group is the census. The CSO time series E1016:
Private Households in Permanent Housing Units 2011 to 2016 by Nature of Occupancy,
Aggregate Town or Rural Area, Age Group of Reference Person, County and City and Census
Year
https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=E1016&PLanguage=0
contains details on numbers of renters by age group. The information is only available for the 2011 and
2016 census.
The renter age group is based on the age of the person who is deemed to be the head of the household.

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National Renter Profile
The national profile of renters and owner-occupiers for 2011 and 2016 is:
2011 2016
This profile excludes the (small) numbers who occupy properties rent-free and those who did not provide
a response.
The key differences between the 2011 and 2016 numbers are the proportions in the age groups 25-29, 30-
34 and 35.35 that rent or are owner-occupiers.
Age Group 2011 2016 Difference
Mortgage Rented Mortgage Rented Mortgage Rented
25 - 29 Years 26.15% 67.35% 11.76% 73.37% -55.03% 8.94%
30 - 34 Years 48.60% 45.20% 32.41% 56.02% -33.31% 23.94%
35 - 39 Years 59.58% 32.07% 49.44% 39.59% -17.02% 23.45%
The proportions at these age groups that rent or have mortgages do not tell the complete picture. The
following table lists the numbers in the groups and the total population1 at these ages for the 2011 and
2016 census. Bear in mind that these numbers are now over two years old.
Age Group 2011 2016
Mortgage Rented Total
Households
Population Mortgage Rented Total
Households
Population
25 - 29 Years 33,318 85,826 119,144 361,122 10,373 64,695 75,068 297,435
30 - 34 Years 89,612 83,353 172,965 393,945 50,809 87,834 138,643 361,975
35 - 39 Years 110,494 59,470 169,964 364,261 95,274 76,309 171,583 389,421
Total 233,424 228,649 462,073 1,119,328 156,456 228,838 385,294 1,048,831
1 The population numbers are taken from
https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=EY006&PLanguage=0.

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The total population in the three age groups fell by just over 6%. The total number of mortgage holders
aged 25 – 29 fell by 22,945.
People are renting longer and buying properties later. This results in an increased demand for rental
properties.
The national rental numbers and relative proportions are:
Age Group 2011 2016
Under 25 Years 47,359 10.5% 31,103 6.6%
25 - 29 Years 85,826 19.1% 64,695 13.8%
30 - 34 Years 83,353 18.5% 87,834 18.7%
35 - 39 Years 59,470 13.2% 76,309 16.2%
40 - 44 Years 44,147 9.8% 55,418 11.8%
45 - 49 Years 34,331 7.6% 41,670 8.9%
50 - 54 Years 26,833 6.0% 32,228 6.9%
55 - 59 Years 20,938 4.7% 25,157 5.4%
60 - 64 Years 16,325 3.6% 19,283 4.1%
65 Years And Over 30,770 6.8% 35,974 7.7%
Total 449,352 469,671
2011 2016
According to the census, nationally the number of renters increased by 3.5% between 2011 and 2016.
Most renters are aged between 25 and 44 – 60.7% in 2011 and 60.5% in 2016.
Age Group 2011 2016
Rented From Private Landlord 305,377 68.0% 309,728 65.9%
Rented From A Local Authority 129,033 28.7% 143,1782 30.5%
Rented From A Voluntary Body 14,942 3.3% 16,765 3.6%
2 This number closely agrees with the number of Local Authority rentals of 141,504 listed in Department of
Housing, Planning and Local Government Local authority rented sector activity
http://www.housing.gov.ie/node/6335 LA rented stock by area 2014 to date.

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Total 449,352 469,671
2011 2016
Over two third of rental accommodation is provided by private landlords.
Dublin Renter Profile
The Dublin profile of renters and owner-occupiers for 2011 and 2016 is:
2011 2016
This profile excludes the (small) numbers who occupy properties rent-free and those who did not provide
a response.
As with the national numbers, the key differences between the 2011 and 2016 numbers are the
proportions in the age groups 25-29, 30-34 and 35.35 that rent or are owner-occupiers.

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Age Group 2011 2016 Difference
Mortgage Rented Mortgage Rented Mortgage Rented
25 - 29 Years 20.22% 74.09% 9.47% 75.88% -53.18% 2.42%
30 - 34 Years 40.28% 54.74% 27.48% 61.76% -31.79% 12.83%
35 - 39 Years 53.01% 41.25% 43.20% 46.44% -18.51% 12.57%
The proportions at these age groups that rent or have mortgages do not tell the complete picture. The
following table lists the numbers in the groups and the total population at these ages for the 2011 and
2016 census. Bear in mind that these numbers are now over two years old.
Age Group 2011 2016
Mortgage Rented Total
Households
Population Mortgage Rented Total
Households
Population
25 - 29 Years 9,210 16,288 25,498 125,281 3,174 10,872 14,046 111,569
30 - 34 Years 24,393 33,740 58,133 127,173 14,619 25,438 40,057 123,426
35 - 39 Years 28,830 33,148 61,978 104,301 25,670 32,860 58,530 120,544
Total 62,433 83,176 145,609 356,755 43,463 69,170 112,633 355,539
The total population in the three age groups fell by just over 0.3%. The total number of mortgage
holders aged 25 – 29 fell by 6,036.
People are renting longer and buying properties later. This results in an increased demand for rental
properties.
The Dublin rental numbers and relative proportions across the four Dublin areas of Dublin City, Dún
Laoghaire-Rathdown, Fingal and South Dublin are:
Age Group 2011 2016
Under 25 Years 16,288 9.9% 10,872 6.6%
25 - 29 Years 33,740 20.5% 25,438 15.4%
30 - 34 Years 33,148 20.2% 32,860 19.9%
35 - 39 Years 22,435 13.6% 27,593 16.7%
40 - 44 Years 15,474 9.4% 19,152 11.6%
45 - 49 Years 11,616 7.1% 13,540 8.2%
50 - 54 Years 8,915 5.4% 10,151 6.1%
55 - 59 Years 6,970 4.2% 7,911 4.8%
60 - 64 Years 5,529 3.4% 6,071 3.7%
65 Years And Over 10,372 6.3% 11,548 7.0%
Total 164,487 165,136

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2011 2016
The renters in Dublin represented 36.7% of the national number in 2011 and 35.3% in 2016.
According to the census, nationally the number of renters increased by 0.5% between 2011 and 2016.
As with the national numbers, most renters are aged between 25 and 44 – 63.5% in 2011 and 63.4% in
2016.
Age Group 2011 2016
Rented From Private Landlord 116,935 71.1% 114,462 69.3%
Rented From A Local Authority 42,534 25.9% 44,6843 27.1%
Rented From A Voluntary Body 5,018 3.1% 5,990 3.6%
Total 164,487 165,136
2011 2016
3 This number closely agrees with the number of Local Authority rentals of 46,712 for the four Dublin Local
Authority areas listed in Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government Local authority rented sector
activity http://www.housing.gov.ie/node/6335 LA rented stock by area 2014 to date.

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Over two third of rental accommodation is provided by private landlords.
Numbers of Rental Units
The core determining factors in the price of a commodity are its supply and its demand. Demand for
rental units comes from people and is affected by demographic factors:
 Immigrants, students and workers moving temporarily to a location will tend to rent rather than
buy
 It was more common for people leaving the parental home to buy but this is becoming less common
– according to the following paper published by the Central bank of Ireland4, the average age of the
first time buyer average age in 2016 and 2017 was 34 years.
The supply of rental properties can come from a number of sources:
Source of Rental Property Source(s) of Data
1. Private Landlords
a. Existing rental properties
owned by a private landlord
The RTB used to publish a list of all registered tenancies.
The most recently data available dates from March 2017.
The data includes registered tenancies. It does not include
Local Authority rentals and informal tenancies.
b. Rental properties bought by
private landlords
i. Properties bought
with a mortgage
High-level information is available from the BPFI and the
Central Bank.
ii. Properties bought
with cash
The details of residential property purchases are available in
the Property Price Register. Identifying those bought for
cash for letting would require matching the register data
with the RTB detailed tenancy data.
2. Commercial Landlords
a. Existing rental properties
owned by a commercial
landlord
b. Rental properties bought by
commercial landlords
The details of residential property purchases are available in
the Property Price Register. Identifying those bought for
cash for letting would require matching the register data
with the RTB detailed tenancy data.
3. Properties rented by Local Authorities The Department of Housing, Planning and Local
Government publish high-level data.
4. Properties rented by Voluntary
Bodies
4 https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/financial-stability-notes/no-1-2018-macroprudential-
measures-and-irish-mortgage-lending-an-overview-of-2017-(kinghan-lyons-mazza).pdf

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RTB Number of Registered Tenancies
The number of tenancies registered by the RTB for counties outside Dublin in March 2017 was:
County Number of
Registered
Tenancies
Number of
Bedrooms
Carlow 3,804 10,799
Cavan 2,822 7,895
Clare 4,612 13,031
Cork 34,475 90,563
Donegal 6,608 19,077
Galway 18,755 53,638
Kerry 7,563 21,420
Kildare 11,799 31,206
Kilkenny 4,227 11,573
Laois 3,618 10,054
Leitrim 1,551 4,384
Limerick 13,553 37,324
Longford 2,505 6,982
Louth 6,604 17,609
Mayo 6,050 17,258
Meath 7,486 20,448
Monaghan 1,940 5,184
Offaly 3,200 8,746
Roscommon 2,925 8,763
Sligo 5,517 15,678
Tipperary 7,384 19,844
Waterford 8,213 21,457
Westmeath 6,414 16,962
Wexford 8,369 22,284
Wicklow 6,666 16,868
Total 186,660 509,047
In 2016, the number of renting households nationally recorded by the census was 469,671 (see page 8).
The number of Dublin renting households was 165,136 (see page 11). So the number of renting
households outside Dublin in 2016 was 304,535. This includes Local Authority Numbers. Excluding
these the number of renting households outside Dublin in 2016 was 206,041. This is higher than the
number of tenancies registered with the RTB. This could indicate a higher level of non-compliance with
RTB registration or a high level of informal tenancies or both.
The RTB maintained details on registered tenancies in the following Dublin areas:

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According to the detailed RTB data from March 2017, the numbers of registered tenancies for the
various Dublin regions was:
Dublin Area Number of
Registered
Tenancies
Number of
Bedrooms
Dublin 1 7,133 11,624
Dublin 2 3,996 6,952
Dublin 3 4,292 8,524
Dublin 4 8,297 16,505
Dublin 5 1,845 4,420
Dublin 6 11,163 20,614
Dublin 7 7,745 14,413
Dublin 8 11,484 20,355
Dublin 9 5,107 17,380
Dublin 10 620 1,349
Dublin 11 3,220 7,187
Dublin 12 2,723 6,396
Dublin 13 2,309 6,045
Dublin 14 3,348 8,446
Dublin 15 8,472 21,479
Dublin 16 1,841 4,745
Dublin 17 702 1,482
Dublin 18 5,174 11,700
Dublin 20 802 1,842
Dublin 22 1,438 3,595
Dublin 24 5,307 12,413
Co Dublin 27,556 65,515
Total 124,574 272,981

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The number of Dublin renting households was 165,136 (see page 11). This includes Local Authority
Numbers. Excluding these the number of renting households outside Dublin in 2016 was 120,452. This is
very close to the number of registered RTB tenancies.
Most privately rented properties and properties rented out by housing associations must be registered
with the RTB.
The number of tenancies registered with the RTB does not correlate with the number of properties.
There can be multiple tenancies for the same property.
The quality of the detailed RTB tenancy data is poor.
There is a cost to register a tenancy with the RTB so presumably it is reasonable to assume if a property
is no longer available to be rented, it tenancy will not be continued and will lapse. There will be a lag
where the property is still registered up to the renewal date when it will lapse. On the other hand there
will be tenancies that are should be but are not registered with the RTB5.
The following classes of property lettings do not have to be registered with the RTB:
 Holiday lettings
 Business lettings
 Owner-occupied letters where a room in a property is let
 Informal family lettings
 Social housing provided by local authorities
The following table gives the number of registered tenancies for the Dublin postal districts and excludes
the County Dublin area for March 2017, August 2014 and July 2012.
Older information on registered tenancies provided the number of bedrooms and the number of bed
spaces. The following table lists the number of registered tenancies in March 2017, August 2014 and July
2012 for the Dublin postal districts (excluding County Dublin).
March 2017 August 2014 July 2012
Dublin
Area
Number of
Registered
Tenancies
Number of
Bedrooms
Number of
Registered
Tenancies
Number of
Bedrooms
Number of
Bed Spaces
Number of
Registered
Tenancies
Number of
Bedrooms
Number of
Bed Spaces
Dublin 1 7,133 11,624 6,762 11,157 19,108 7,249 12,473 21,124
Dublin 2 3,996 6,952 3,848 6,718 11,406 3,983 7,048 11,853
Dublin 3 4,292 8,524 4,131 8,089 12,950 4,134 8,391 13,430
Dublin 4 8,297 16,505 7,627 15,031 25,297 7,253 14,622 24,208
Dublin 5 1,845 4,420 1,589 4,081 6,167 1,586 4,171 6,387
Dublin 6 11,163 20,614 10,370 19,114 29,800 10,600 20,411 30,752
5 National Oversight and Audit Commission Rented Houses Inspections A Review of Local Authority Performance
of Private Rented Houses Regulations Functions http://noac.ie/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/NOAC-Private-
Rented-Sector-Review.pdf
Page 5 "While there is no reliable estimate of the level of unregistered tenancies, some authorities believe
that not all tenancies in their area are registered. Since enforcement of the registration requirement is a
function of the Residential Tenancies Board, authorities should draw that agency’s attention to any
cases encountered."

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Dublin 7 7,745 14,413 7,236 13,354 21,318 7,120 13,575 21,464
Dublin 8 11,484 20,355 9,967 17,884 29,998 9,731 17,786 29,188
Dublin 9 5,107 17,380 4,720 11,369 17,175 4,650 11,297 17,132
Dublin 10 620 1,349 452 1,000 1,551 404 883 1,364
Dublin 11 3,220 7,187 3,064 6,826 10,979 2,867 6,476 10,305
Dublin 12 2,723 6,396 2,452 5,936 9,295 2,308 5,601 8,772
Dublin 13 2,309 6,045 1,902 4,909 7,998 1,714 4,278 7,035
Dublin 14 3,348 8,446 3,027 7,740 12,260 3,146 8,180 13,035
Dublin 15 8,472 21,479 7,993 20,645 32,816 8,027 20,869 33,775
Dublin 16 1,841 4,745 1,662 4,369 6,917 1,643 4,460 7,075
Dublin 17 702 1,482 523 1,177 1,885 590 1,335 2,247
Dublin 18 5,174 11,700 4,484 10,332 17,470 3,627 8,678 14,602
Dublin 20 802 1,842 770 1,771 2,834 665 1,550 2,446
Dublin 22 1,438 3,595 1,583 3,970 6,249 2,086 5,254 8,236
Dublin 24 5,307 12,413 4,417 10,543 17,143 4,230 10,144 16,469
Total 97,018 207,466 88,579 186,015 300,616 87,613 187,482 300,899
A large part of the increase of 8,439 in the number of registered and of 21,451 in the number of bedrooms
provided by those tenancies from August 2014 to March 2017 is likely due to changes that happened
with the RTB in 2016 when approved housing bodies (housing associations) were obliged to register their
tenancies. As you can see from the information on page 11, in the 2016 census there were 5,990 units
classified as Rented From A Voluntary Body.
So the number of registered tenancies, allowing for the 2016 registration policy change, has not changed
significantly. It has increased slightly. But it has not decreased.
The average number of bedrooms per registered tenancy was between 2.10 and 2.14. This indicates that
most tenancies were for 2-bedroom apartments with a smaller number for 1-bedroom apartments and 3-
bedroom and larger apartments and houses.
Central Bank Buy To Let (BTL) Mortgages
The latest Central Bank BTL mortgage information relates to December 20176. This information is
published nationally.
While this information is compiled for the purposes of assessing mortgage arrears, it can provide an
insight into the number of BTL mortgages.
Quarter Number of
BTL
Mortgages
Average
Mortgage
Balance
Quarter on
Quarter
Decrease
Jun 2012 150,187 208,092
Sep 2012 150,544 206,263 -357
Dec 2012 150,124 207,552 420
Mar 2013 149,395 206,965 729
Jun 2013 148,529 206,196 866
Sep 2013 147,610 205,542 919
Dec 2013 145,528 203,859 2,082
6 https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/mortgage-arrears

Page 17
Quarter Number of
BTL
Mortgages
Average
Mortgage
Balance
Quarter on
Quarter
Decrease
Mar 2014 144,686 202,978 842
Jun 2014 144,187 202,215 499
Sep 2014 143,354 201,057 833
Dec 2014 140,995 198,641 2,359
Mar 2015 139,206 196,417 1,789
Jun 2015 137,303 194,174 1,903
Sep 2015 137,805 191,783 -502
Dec 2015 137,504 189,234 301
Mar 2016 136,295 187,997 1,209
Jun 2016 134,994 186,807 1,301
Sep 2016 132,571 185,663 2,423
Dec 2016 130,710 183,881 1,861
Mar 2017 128,149 182,753 2,561
Jun 2017 126,995 181,419 1,154
Sep 2017 124,702 180,674 2,293
Dec 2017 122,366 179,350 2,336
In the five and half years of this interval, the number of BTL mortgages dropper by 27,821 or 18.52%.
The number of repossessions in the interval was 4,897. So the number of BTL mortgages is dropping.
This may be due to the group of people to who this lending relates – accidental landlords – selling their
investment properties.
BPFI Residential Investment Lending (RIL) Mortgages
This lending relates to individuals borrowing to fund mortgages for letting7. It is published quarterly
from 2003 Q1. The latest interval is 2018 Q1. They are published nationally.
In the 16 years of this interval there were 143,894 such mortgages. Only a subset of the total properties
bought by individuals will have been bought with a mortgage.
The following chart aggregates the individual quarterly numbers of RIL mortgages, the cumulative
number of RIL mortgages and the number of BTL mortgages outstanding counted by the Central Bank.
7 https://www.bpfi.ie/publications/bpfi-mortgage-drawdowns/

Page 18
The trends from this are clear:
 Large-scale lending for residential investment properties started in 2003, peaked in 2006 and started
to fall rapidly from 2007 to 2009. It has remained at very low rates since then – of the order of 300
per quarter.
 The number of outstanding buy-to-let mortgages had reduced by 18.5% since measurement data
became available.
This lack of investment in new residential letting combined with a drop in outstanding mortgages
indicates a reduction in the number of private properties being bought and then available for rent.
The BPFI data can be combined with the PRSA property price register data to get a view of the number
of properties bought with mortgages and the number of new properties. While the BPFI data is
available from the start of 2003, the PRSA data is available from the start of 2010. The BPFI data is
summarised nationally by quarter, The PRSA data contains individual transactions.
Nationally the numbers of mortgages and properties bought from 2010 Q1 to 2018 Q1 were:
Quarter Number of
Mortgages
Value of
Mortgages
(Millions)
Number of
Properties
Bought
Value of
Properties
Bought
(Millions)
New Properties
2010 Q1 6,954 1,220 4,213 1,082 1,206
2010 Q2 7,827 1,305 5,163 1,300 1,326
2010 Q3 7,261 1,239 5,961 1,444 1,392

Page 19
Quarter Number of
Mortgages
Value of
Mortgages
(Millions)
Number of
Properties
Bought
Value of
Properties
Bought
(Millions)
New Properties
2010 Q4 5,624 982 5,627 1,270 1,380
2011 Q1 3,259 577 3,499 817 752
2011 Q2 3,551 624 4,123 886 751
2011 Q3 3,607 623 4,979 1,080 684
2011 Q4 3,856 639 5,800 1,174 762
2012 Q1 2,630 450 4,284 823 553
2012 Q2 3,225 524 5,376 995 623
2012 Q3 3,983 663 6,408 1,292 754
2012 Q4 6,043 999 9,261 1,794 1,234
2013 Q1 2,068 331 4,899 899 632
2013 Q2 3,229 518 6,284 1,248 669
2013 Q3 4,482 750 8,034 1,731 897
2013 Q4 5,206 896 10,806 2,280 1,544
2014 Q1 3,425 568 6,838 1,350 852
2014 Q2 4,803 820 9,197 1,855 1,237
2014 Q3 6,308 1,126 11,508 2,708 1,284
2014 Q4 7,583 1,341 16,001 3,438 2,028
2015 Q1 5,617 1,002 10,716 2,269 1,161
2015 Q2 6,120 1,091 11,638 2,463 1,935
2015 Q3 7,155 1,335 12,453 2,840 1,416
2015 Q4 7,993 1,438 14,227 3,234 1,705
2016 Q1 5,447 999 9,804 2,336 1,054
2016 Q2 6,803 1,286 11,605 2,736 1,613
2016 Q3 8,133 1,558 12,945 3,226 1,759
2016 Q4 9,115 1,813 15,281 3,868 2,381
2017 Q1 6,944 1,392 10,967 2,849 1,623
2017 Q2 7,998 1,648 12,556 3,172 2,126
2017 Q3 9,506 2,016 14,341 3,859 2,351
2017 Q4 10,350 2,230 16,528 4,618 3,174
2018 Q1 7,879 1,704 11,429 3,118 2,025
Total 193,984 35,706 302,751 70,056 44,883
In the interval there were over 100,000 property purchases in excess of the number of mortgages drawn
down.
The quarters for the numbers of mortgages and when properties were bought with those mortgages are
not aligned. There will be a lag between when a mortgage is drawn down and when the property bought
with that mortgage is registered with the PRSA.
The following chart shows the cumulative number of mortgages and properties bought and their
cumulative values. The numbers are shown on the left hand vertical axis in blue. The values are shown
on the right hand vertical axis in orange.

Page 20
It is interesting to note that while the number of properties bought is 50% greater than the number of
mortgages drawn down, the value of the properties bought is 100% greater than the value of the
mortgages drawn down. One cause of this is large scale property purchases counted as single transactions
–see page 42 for more information on this.
The quality of the PRSA property price register data is quite poor. For example, there are 52
transactions with a value of €10 million or greater with a combined value of $1.456 billion. These
correspond to the purchase of multiple units registered as a single property.
The details on the properties bought in Dublin since 2010 by quarter are:
Quarter Number
Bought
Value of
Properties
Bought
(Millions)
Number New
Bought
2010 Q1 1,429 €490 301
2010 Q2 1,808 €636 322
2010 Q3 2,001 €665 341
2010 Q4 1,694 €518 369
2011 Q1 1,080 €354 165
2011 Q2 1,260 €390 154
2011 Q3 1,670 €533 170
2011 Q4 1,889 €548 193
2012 Q1 1,434 €416 177
2012 Q2 1,942 €502 159
2012 Q3 2,336 €679 265
2012 Q4 3,199 €904 360
2013 Q1 1,584 €450 189
2013 Q2 2,058 €679 164
2013 Q3 2,870 €996 294
2013 Q4 3,860 €1,266 551
2014 Q1 2,192 €728 237
2014 Q2 2,917 €992 295

Page 21
Quarter Number
Bought
Value of
Properties
Bought
(Millions)
Number New
Bought
2014 Q3 3,812 €1,558 355
2014 Q4 5,244 €1,852 794
2015 Q1 3,473 €1,149 324
2015 Q2 4,062 €1,329 932
2015 Q3 3,815 €1,440 438
2015 Q4 4,072 €1,497 470
2016 Q1 3,226 €1,228 342
2016 Q2 3,498 €1,424 552
2016 Q3 4,152 €1,693 682
2016 Q4 4,862 €2,028 926
2017 Q1 3,600 €1,475 706
2017 Q2 3,938 €1,583 881
2017 Q3 4,737 €2,010 1,027
2017 Q4 5,486 €2,419 1,417
2018 Q1 3,852 €1,612 856
Total 99,052 €36,042 15,408
In the greater than 9 years represented by this data, only 15,408 new property purchases were registered
in Dublin. This illustrates the lack of new property supply in Dublin to accommodate a growing
population and a demand for rental accommodation.
The Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government produce statistics on new connections to
the electricity network8. The number of new residential connections to the electricity network in the
Dublin area from 2010 onwards was 23,880. ESB Networks will typically de-energise (disconnect from
the electricity supply network) after it has been unoccupied and no usage recorded for six months. So
new connections to the electricity network do represent properties that have come back on the market.
But they do not represent newly built houses.
Rent Indices
I have used the following indices of rent-related costs in this section:
 CSO Consumer Price Index – monthly from January 1996 to December 2017
 CSO Rent Price Component of Consumer Price Index – monthly from January 1996 to December 2017
– the CSO publish two price time series that include a rental component
o CPM15 Harmonised Consumer Price Index by Commodity Group, Month and Statistic9
o CPM16 Consumer Price Index by Detailed Sub Indices, Statistic and Month10
 RTB Rent Index – quarterly from Q3 2007 to Q3 2017 – the RTB publish three rent indices:
8 http://www.housing.gov.ie/housing/statistics/house-building-and-private-rented/construction-activity-esb-
connections
9 https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=CPM15&PLanguage=0
10 https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=CPM16&PLanguage=0

Page 22
o Overall
o House
o Apartment
 Daft Index (see page 32 for some comments on this) – monthly from January 2006 to January 2018
I have used the national rent index values for this analysis.
CSO Consumer Price Index
This chart shows the CSO overall consumer price index11 and the rent portion of this index from January
1996 to April 2018.
It is interesting to note that the rent price index consistently lagged behind the overall consumer price
index, matching it in early 2002 and early 2008. It is only in August 2015 that the rent index starts to
consistently exceed the consumer price index.
From May 2003 to February 2005 rents fell. Similarly rents fell from May 2008 to November 2012.
The following chart shows the overall RTB rent index12 overlaid onto the CSO price indices. I have
changed the interval to start in September 2007. I have also converted the quarterly RTB national rent
index data to monthly values by simple linear interpolation. The RTB rent index uses the right-hand
vertical axis values.
11 CPM15: Harmonised Consumer Price Index by Commodity Group, Month and Statistic
https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=CPM15&PLanguage=0
12 https://onestopshop.rtb.ie/research/ar. At the time of writing the latest RTB overall rent index value published
was for 2017Q4.

Page 23
Combining the Rent Indices
The three RTB start in Q3 2007 at 100. The following displays the three RTB rent indices – overall,
house and apartment, the two CSO rent consumer price indices and the Daft national rent index.
While these five rent index all follow the same general trends, there are considerable differences.
This chart just shows the trends. While the initial values for September 2009 have been standardised at
100 the actual values represented by this for each index are different.
The greatest variation occurs with the CSO’s CPM15 Harmonised Consumer Price Index. The Daft rent
index reaches the lowest relative point and, apart from CPM15, the highest relative point. This matches

Page 24
the nature of the Daft rent index which is a leading indicator of rents based on asking prices for new
lettings. As rents fell, the asking prices for new rents were lower and as rents increase the same asking
prices are higher.
Rent Amounts
The RTB publish yearly, half-yearly and quarterly rent amount data. Daft publish similar quarterly
data.
The RTB data is classified by property type, number of beds and locations. The location dimension is
quite granular. It currently has data up to Q4 2017.
The structure of the property type and number of beds classification is:
This classification occurs because property type and number of beds are represented by two dimensions
rather than being consolidated into occurrences of combinations actual property types and rooms.
The Daft property classification is:
 1 bed apartment
 2 bed house
 3 bed house
 4 bed house
 5 bed house
So the only overlapping property classification between the two sets of data is 1 bed apartment. The
Daft property type classification also changed in Q3 2014. The time series currently runs to Q4 2017.
This analysis looks at 1 bed apartments in the Dublin postal regions. The RTB data does not have an
explicit classification for Dublin 22. It does have one sub-region within Dublin 22. The Daft data
includes data for Dublin 22. For consistency, I have excluded this.

Page 25
The RTB do not list any tenancies for 1 bed apartments in the Dublin 10 postal district. Daft have data
for 1 bed apartments for this district. For consistency, I have excluded this.
The RTB data includes actual amounts paid (or those amounts tenants say they are paying, which may
be different) for all tenancies. The Daft data includes asking prices for new rentals.
The RTB rent amounts for 1 bed apartments in Dublin postal districts excluding Dublin 22 is:
2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Dublin 1 €915 €941 €964 €981 €1,004 €1,022 €1,044 €1,066 €1,090 €1,112 €1,138 €1,155 €1,181 €1,225
Dublin 2 €1,059 €1,100 €1,123 €1,144 €1,163 €1,194 €1,203 €1,231 €1,278 €1,314 €1,332 €1,352 €1,356 €1,413
Dublin 3 €904 €916 €934 €947 €964 €982 €1,007 €1,030 €1,055 €1,089 €1,112 €1,138 €1,145 €1,194
Dublin 4 €1,119 €1,138 €1,164 €1,177 €1,202 €1,216 €1,250 €1,271 €1,296 €1,323 €1,353 €1,372 €1,375 €1,414
Dublin 5 €823 €863 €887 €893 €913 €922 €945 €954 €1,005 €1,041 €1,055 €1,070 €1,078 €1,084
Dublin 6 €988 €999 €1,017 €1,042 €1,069 €1,099 €1,128 €1,138 €1,158 €1,185 €1,212 €1,235 €1,259 €1,282
Dublin 6W €877 €904 €926 €955 €976 €986 €995 €1,020 €1,037 €1,050 €1,097 €1,123 €1,154 €1,198
Dublin 7 €844 €872 €896 €909 €944 €962 €972 €985 €1,018 €1,030 €1,046 €1,071 €1,093 €1,115
Dublin 8 €893 €913 €935 €962 €991 €1,017 €1,035 €1,054 €1,078 €1,110 €1,133 €1,156 €1,189 €1,232
Dublin 9 €826 €857 €867 €878 €906 €932 €956 €991 €1,009 €1,034 €1,057 €1,079 €1,102 €1,118
Dublin 10 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0
Dublin 11 €825 €842 €850 €869 €876 €903 €924 €948 €970 €1,008 €1,022 €1,034 €1,070 €1,083
Dublin 12 €855 €870 €893 €899 €919 €932 €940 €988 €1,013 €1,048 €1,085 €1,096 €1,098 €1,110
Dublin 13 €865 €903 €925 €935 €949 €968 €998 €1,001 €1,016 €1,032 €1,049 €1,046 €1,086 €1,123
Dublin 14 €1,034 €1,064 €1,094 €1,102 €1,122 €1,140 €1,175 €1,183 €1,198 €1,210 €1,219 €1,230 €1,236 €1,305
Dublin 15 €878 €898 €908 €930 €951 €964 €982 €990 €1,009 €1,036 €1,049 €1,072 €1,100 €1,129
Dublin 16 €990 €1,000 €1,017 €1,104 €1,146 €1,182 €1,228 €1,244 €1,221 €1,228 €1,230 €1,250 €1,250 €1,255
Dublin 17 €866 €878 €887 €894 €899 €902 €921 €926 €946 €962 €998 €1,011 €1,032 €1,038
Dublin 18 €1,083 €1,112 €1,131 €1,145 €1,159 €1,178 €1,188 €1,233 €1,272 €1,343 €1,364 €1,378 €1,392 €1,408
Dublin 20 €847 €863 €863 €875 €907 €929 €938 €971 €1,016 €1,037 €1,040 €1,055 €1,033 €1,077
Dublin 24 €830 €850 €870 €892 €925 €943 €957 €972 €991 €1,019 €1,041 €1,050 €1,069 €1,073
The CSO published some very limited rent amount data in the 2016 census13. The following is an extract
of the data for Dublin:
Weekly Monthly
2011 2016 2011 2016
Flat Or Apartment In A Purpose- Built Block
Rented From Private Landlord €219 €280 €949 €1,214
Rented From A Local Authority €64 €85 €276 €369
Rented From A Voluntary Body €87 €101 €376 €437
Flat/Apartment In A Converted Dwelling (Including Bed Sits)
Rented From Private Landlord €160 €201 €693 €873
Rented From A Local Authority €76 €110 €328 €475
Rented From A Voluntary Body €84 €92 €366 €399
According to the CSO, the average monthly rent paid for an apartment in 2016 was €1,214. The average
RTB price14 for apartments with one to two beds in Q2 2016 in Dublin was €1,225. The average
apartments with one to three beds was €1,261. So the two sets of rental price data agree closely.
13 E1020 Average Weekly Rent of Rented Private Households in Permanent Housing Units 2011 to 2016 by
Regional Authority, Nature of Occupancy, Type of Private Accommodation, Census Year and Statistic
https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=E1020&PLanguage=0

Page 26
The Daft rent asking amounts for 1 bed apartments in Dublin postal districts excluding Dublin 22 is:
2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Dublin 1 €915 €941 €964 €981 €1,004 €1,022 €1,044 €1,066 €1,090 €1,112 €1,138 €1,155 €1,181 €1,503
Dublin 2 €1,059 €1,100 €1,123 €1,144 €1,163 €1,194 €1,203 €1,231 €1,278 €1,314 €1,332 €1,352 €1,356 €1,750
Dublin 3 €904 €916 €934 €947 €964 €982 €1,007 €1,030 €1,055 €1,089 €1,112 €1,138 €1,145 €1,444
Dublin 4 €1,119 €1,138 €1,164 €1,177 €1,202 €1,216 €1,250 €1,271 €1,296 €1,323 €1,353 €1,372 €1,375 €1,868
Dublin 5 €823 €863 €887 €893 €913 €922 €945 €954 €1,005 €1,041 €1,055 €1,070 €1,078 €1,307
Dublin 6 €988 €999 €1,017 €1,042 €1,069 €1,099 €1,128 €1,138 €1,158 €1,185 €1,212 €1,235 €1,259 €1,617
Dublin 6W €877 €904 €926 €955 €976 €986 €995 €1,020 €1,037 €1,050 €1,097 €1,123 €1,154 €1,462
Dublin 7 €844 €872 €896 €909 €944 €962 €972 €985 €1,018 €1,030 €1,046 €1,071 €1,093 €1,432
Dublin 8 €893 €913 €935 €962 €991 €1,017 €1,035 €1,054 €1,078 €1,110 €1,133 €1,156 €1,189 €1,501
Dublin 9 €826 €857 €867 €878 €906 €932 €956 €991 €1,009 €1,034 €1,057 €1,079 €1,102 €1,351
Dublin 10 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €0 €1,227
Dublin 11 €825 €842 €850 €869 €876 €903 €924 €948 €970 €1,008 €1,022 €1,034 €1,070 €1,235
Dublin 12 €855 €870 €893 €899 €919 €932 €940 €988 €1,013 €1,048 €1,085 €1,096 €1,098 €1,313
Dublin 13 €865 €903 €925 €935 €949 €968 €998 €1,001 €1,016 €1,032 €1,049 €1,046 €1,086 €1,329
Dublin 14 €1,034 €1,064 €1,094 €1,102 €1,122 €1,140 €1,175 €1,183 €1,198 €1,210 €1,219 €1,230 €1,236 €1,448
Dublin 15 €878 €898 €908 €930 €951 €964 €982 €990 €1,009 €1,036 €1,049 €1,072 €1,100 €1,213
Dublin 16 €990 €1,000 €1,017 €1,104 €1,146 €1,182 €1,228 €1,244 €1,221 €1,228 €1,230 €1,250 €1,250 €1,292
Dublin 17 €866 €878 €887 €894 €899 €902 €921 €926 €946 €962 €998 €1,011 €1,032 €1,275
Dublin 18 €1,083 €1,112 €1,131 €1,145 €1,159 €1,178 €1,188 €1,233 €1,272 €1,343 €1,364 €1,378 €1,392 €1,448
Dublin 20 €847 €863 €863 €875 €907 €929 €938 €971 €1,016 €1,037 €1,040 €1,055 €1,033 €1,320
Dublin 24 €830 €850 €870 €892 €925 €943 €957 €972 €991 €1,019 €1,041 €1,050 €1,069 €1,222
The Daft amounts are consistently greater than the RTB amounts, which is to be expected given the
different natures of the data – current actual prices being paid rather than current asking prices. The
following table lists the percentage differences between the two indices,
2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Dublin 1 17.7% 15.8% 15.0% 11.5% 13.7% 7.9% 13.7% 16.0% 19.6% 23.1% 21.6% 23.9% 25.2% 22.7%
Dublin 2 9.4% 12.4% 12.0% 18.8% 20.7% 13.5% 17.0% 18.7% 19.9% 22.4% 21.7% 23.4% 26.7% 23.9%
Dublin 3 2.5% 7.4% 4.1% 16.0% 19.6% 12.9% 19.2% 20.3% 22.7% 23.5% 21.1% 20.7% 23.1% 21.0%
Dublin 4 7.0% 10.0% 8.1% 20.7% 23.1% 17.1% 23.8% 26.7% 27.9% 29.6% 28.4% 28.4% 32.6% 32.1%
Dublin 5 0.5% 13.4% 2.8% 7.1% 9.9% 5.7% 9.4% 13.4% 11.7% 13.3% 12.2% 13.3% 17.9% 20.6%
Dublin 6 -3.8% 2.7% -0.9% 18.4% 21.2% 14.3% 15.0% 18.6% 22.1% 25.9% 24.3% 24.2% 25.3% 26.1%
Dublin 6W 3.4% 6.6% 6.5% 17.1% 20.6% 15.2% 21.6% 23.4% 25.4% 29.5% 23.8% 22.2% 23.5% 22.1%
Dublin 7 6.6% 3.7% 7.5% 13.0% 15.1% 9.3% 13.1% 16.7% 18.5% 24.3% 24.0% 24.2% 27.0% 28.5%
Dublin 8 7.8% 9.0% 8.3% 11.8% 14.5% 8.2% 12.1% 15.3% 18.2% 21.4% 20.3% 20.8% 22.7% 21.8%
Dublin 9 6.8% 6.1% 6.9% 12.1% 14.5% 8.0% 10.6% 11.2% 14.0% 16.1% 15.1% 15.5% 18.1% 20.8%
Dublin 10 9.1% 12.4% 11.2% 4.1% 10.1% 2.8% 7.2% 9.7% 11.1% 12.0% 11.5% 11.9% 11.5% 14.0%
Dublin 11 5.9% -1.3% 9.1% 5.6% 9.7% 4.6% 10.3% 10.1% 12.2% 13.3% 9.8% 11.2% 15.3% 18.3%
Dublin 12 11.1% 10.1% 6.5% 3.5% 8.0% 2.4% 6.5% 11.2% 12.9% 16.1% 14.2% 17.4% 18.7% 18.3%
Dublin 13 6.1% -3.5% 3.3% 0.9% 3.8% -0.6% 1.9% 6.0% 7.8% 10.6% 9.6% 9.1% 13.1% 10.9%
Dublin 14 21.1% 21.5% 14.2% -4.7% -1.8% -6.1% -2.7% 0.9% 3.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 6.6% 7.4%
Dublin 15 12.8% -10.0% 6.4% -6.8% -5.7% -11.1% -10.8% -8.8% -3.6% -0.4% -0.4% -1.0% 1.7% 2.9%
Dublin 16 8.2% 12.8% 3.5% 8.9% 7.6% -1.5% 0.8% 3.0% 10.4% 9.3% 12.2% 16.3% 22.9%
Dublin 17 2.0% 3.2% 0.6% -4.5% -0.3% -5.1% 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% -0.4% -1.8% -1.6% 1.0% 2.9%
Dublin 18 36.7% 35.0% 13.1% 8.3% 11.5% 4.6% 10.4% 11.2% 9.0% 11.4% 13.0% 13.2% 23.2% 22.6%
Dublin 20 8.1% 7.1% 6.1% -1.6% 1.1% -4.6% -0.3% 3.3% 5.3% 8.3% 6.9% 7.1% 10.4% 13.9%
Dublin 24 17.7% 15.8% 15.0% 11.5% 13.7% 7.9% 13.7% 16.0% 19.6% 23.1% 21.6% 23.9% 25.2% 22.7%
14 RIQ02: RTB Average Monthly Rent Report by Property Type, Location, Number of Bedrooms and Quarter
https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=RIQ02&PLanguage=0

Page 27
The differences between the Daft recorded asking price and the current RTB recorded actual rent are
variable. The trend is for the difference to become greater. This indicates accelerating asking prices that
tends to indicate accelerating rents being charged.
The following chart shows the range of differences:

Page 28
So, if the Daft index data is a leading indicator of future rents, how long will it take for the asking prices
to apply to the entire population of tenancies?
The following table shows the number of quarters before the asking prices indicated in the Daft rent
price data apply to the actual rent amounts being paid according to the RTB.
2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4
Dublin 1 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 4 7
Dublin 2 2 4 4 7 6 10 9 7 7
Dublin 3 1 4 2 5 3 7 9 5
Dublin 4 6 6 4 6 5
Dublin 5 2 3 1 7 2 5 4 3 3 6
Dublin 6 2 8 7
Dublin 6W 3 2 3 4 8 9 7
Dublin 7 3 3 3 2 4 6 8 6 7
Dublin 8 4 3 4 4 3 5 7 4 6 6
Dublin 9 3 4 4 4 3 4 6 3 4 6
Dublin 10
Dublin 11 7 4 5 6 5 3 4 2 3 5 5
Dublin 12 3 3 4 5 4 4 2 3 4
Dublin 13 5 3 5 5 4 3 5 1 6 6
Dublin 14 2 4 3 3 1 2 2 6 5
Dublin 15 11 8 11 11 8 1 2 3 3 2
Dublin 16 4 1
Dublin 17 8 9 4 6 5 1 2
Dublin 18 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 1
Dublin 20 10 6 4 4 3 3
Dublin 24 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 4 7
This does not take into account any effect the introduction and implementation of Rent Pressure Zones
will have on future rents.
Rent Projections
Rent Index Projections
The following chart shows simple projections of the overall Consumer Price Index and of the Rent price
index to December 2019, based on previous and current trends.
The rent index data is overlaid with the introduction of Rent Pressure Zones15 (RPZ) in December 2016.
15 https://www.rtb.ie/rent-pressure-zones

Page 29
In the short-term at least, the introduction of RPZs do not appear to have changed the trend of
increasing rents.
So without interventions in the rent market that reduce demand and/or increase supply, rent prices will
likely increase by between at least 13.5% to 18% by the end of 2019.
The following chart shows similar simple projections of the Daft Rent price index to December 2019.
Again, the rent index data is overlaid with the introduction of Rent Pressure Zones (RPZ) in December
2016.

Page 30
As above, in the short-term at least, the introduction of RPZs do not appear to have changed the trend
of increasing rents.
Based on this index and its projections and again assuming no interventions, rent prices will increase by
between at least 15% to 22% by the end of 2019. This is probably an overestimate as the Daft index is
itself a leading indicator of rent price trends.
Linking Rent Price Changes to Changes in the Consumer Price Index
There have been calls to index rents to the Consumer Price Index. They question is when to link the rent
to the CPI. Renters benefits from large falls in rent in the past. A fixed rent eliminates these benefits.
If rent supply increases and/or rent demands decrease such that rents drop will there be a call to remove
any linkage to CPI. Similarly, if CPI increases because of the eternal factors such as Brexit, will there be
calls to remove the linkage.
The following chart shows some projections of rents based on them being fixed to the Consumer Price
Index at three times:
1. January 1996
2. March 2002
3. March 2004
For example, if rents were fixed to the CPI in March 2008 when rents started to fall, renters would not
have been able to benefit from the very large reduction in rents that persisted until around July 2005.
The estimated national total amount of rent that a rented would have paid from March 2008 to
December 2017 in these circumstances would have been around 7.8% greater than the rent actually paid.
So even in April 2018 the renter is still notionally better off with floating than with fixed rents. This is
based on national rents. Experiences may be different for specific locations. This assumes the renter was
renting for the entire interval.

Page 31
The following chart illustrates this payment profile of a rents being fixed in March 2008 and floating
rents schematically.
If rents were fixed in March 2002, the renter would have paid around 5% less with fixed rents than when
rents were left to float. The following chart illustrates this payment profile of a rents being fixed in
March 2002 and floating rents schematically.
These simple examples do not take into account the change in the value of money over time. So €1,000
paid in rent 10 years ago would have a notional value of €1,060 today. So if you adjusted these figures by
expressing the amount paid in present day values, the profile becomes:

Page 32
Because under the fixed approach in this example when rents were notionally fixed in March 2002 the
renter is paying more and those earlier larger payments have a greater present value.
So fixing rents to CPI may be a short-term response to increasing rents with longer-term unforeseen and
negative consequences. There is a balance to be struck between rent certainty rather than volatility and
cost of rent. It could be a case of “be careful what you wish for”. The longer-term analysis shows that
linking rents to CPI would have little effect on rents.
There is a secondary issue which is the effect on the CPI of linking rents to the CPI. Because of low
overall inflation, variation in the CPI has been consistently low for the last 10 years. The CPI consists of
a large number of sub-indices. While the rent sub-index is increasing, other sub-indices are decreasing to
create this overall flat CPI index.
The CPI is largely an artificial construct. The items of which it is composed and the weights assigned to
them are based on averages of what is bought. The composition of the CPI changes over time but can lag
behind real world purchases. Each individual will have a different profile of expenditure and so will
experience a different CPI that can vary considerably from the published national average.
If the variation in the rent portion of the CPI, which varies positively from the overall CPI, is removed
then this will have a feedback effect on the CPI. The CPI would have to be reconstituted to avoid this
negative feedback loop.
Daft Rent Index Notes
I have included separate notes on the Daft rent index because it is widely quoted and used as a measure
of rent increases.
Daft is a property web site. Its rental prices represent asking prices for new property lettings rather than
being an aggregate of historical and current actual rents being paid.
Historically Daft have published four separate rent index time series. The start and end publication
dates of these series are:
1. Index 1 - From Q2 2015 to the Present – described as “2012 average = 100”

Page 33
2. Index 2 - From Q4 2012 to Q1 2015 – described as “2007 average = 100”
3. Index 3 - From Q4 2007 to Q3 2012 – described as “Base: 2007 = 100”
4. Index 4 - From Q4 2006 to Q3 2007 – described as “Base: 2005 = 100”
I have used Index 1 in the other sections of these notes.
These indices are based on asking prices for new rentals. As such they describe only one part of the rental
market. But it can be regarded as a leading indicator of future rental trends.
Each of these indices uses a different baseline and covers a different interval:
Index 1 - From Q2 2015
to the Present
to Q1 2015
to Q3 2012
to Q3 2007
2002 2002 2002
2003 2003 2003
2004 2004 2004
2005 2005 2005
2006 2006 2006 2006
2007 2007 2007 2007
2008 2008 2008
2009 2009 2009
2010 2010 2010
2011 2011 2011
2012 2012 2012
2013 2013
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016
2017
2018
The indices are also not consistent. This following table shows the index values for the overlapping
months of all indices of January 2006 to December 2017 and their individual monthly changes.
For example, from December 2016 to January 2017, index 1 shows an increase of 0.40%, index 2 shows
an increase of 1.57%, index 3 shows a decrease of 0.10% and index 4 shows a decrease of 0.09%.
Month Index 1 %
Change
Index 2 %
Change
Index 3 %
Change
Index 4 %
Change
Range
2006M01 132.1 119.1 87 103.3
2006M02 132.4 0.23% 119.5 0.34% 86.7 -0.34% 102.6 -0.68% -0.68% to 0.34%
2006M03 133.7 0.98% 120 0.42% 86.7 0.00% 102.8 0.19% 0.00% to 0.98%
2006M04 134.5 0.60% 121.2 1.00% 87.8 1.27% 102.9 0.10% 0.10% to 1.27%
2006M05 138.9 3.27% 121.9 0.58% 88.9 1.25% 105 2.04% 0.58% to 3.27%
2006M06 140.4 1.08% 122.4 0.41% 90.5 1.80% 105.8 0.76% 0.41% to 1.80%
2006M07 140.7 0.21% 123.5 0.90% 91.6 1.22% 107.1 1.23% 0.21% to 1.23%
2006M08 143.7 2.13% 126.6 2.51% 93.6 2.18% 109.4 2.15% 2.13% to 2.51%
2006M09 145.4 1.18% 128.4 1.42% 94.4 0.85% 110.4 0.91% 0.85% to 1.42%

Page 34
2006M10 146.5 0.76% 129.1 0.55% 96.1 1.80% 112.4 1.81% 0.55% to 1.81%
2006M11 148.3 1.23% 127.3 -1.39% 96.3 0.21% 112.5 0.09% -1.39% to 1.23%
2006M12 148.3 0.00% 127.1 -0.16% 96.7 0.42% 113 0.44% -0.16% to 0.44%
2007M01 148.9 0.40% 129.1 1.57% 96.6 -0.10% 112.9 -0.09% -0.10% to 1.57%
2007M02 150.7 1.21% 130.6 1.16% 97 0.41% 113.4 0.44% 0.41% to 1.21%
2007M03 151.7 0.66% 132.4 1.38% 98.9 1.96% 115.6 1.94% 0.66% to 1.96%
2007M04 152.5 0.53% 132.8 0.30% 96 -2.93% 112.2 -2.94% -2.94% to 0.53%
2007M05 154.3 1.18% 134.5 1.28% 100 4.17% 117.5 4.72% 1.18% to 4.72%
2007M06 155.7 0.91% 135.1 0.45% 105.8 5.80% 123.6 5.19% 0.45% to 5.80%
2007M07 157.3 1.03% 135.5 0.30% 99.8 -5.67% 116.7 -5.58% -5.67% to 1.03%
2007M08 160.1 1.78% 133.8 -1.25% 100.8 1.00% 117.8 0.94% -1.25% to 1.78%
2007M09 160.7 0.37% 134.3 0.37% 102.2 1.39% 119.4 1.36% 0.37% to 1.39%
2007M10 161.3 0.37% 134 -0.22% 102.5 0.29% 119.8 0.34% -0.22% to 0.37%
2007M11 163.6 1.43% 128 -4.48% 101.8 -0.68% -4.48% to 1.43%
2007M12 164.4 0.49% 128.1 0.08% 98.6 -3.14% -3.14% to 0.49%
This inconsistency means that the set of series cannot be easily or reasonably reconciled to a common
base to provide a single time series along the full length of the individual series from January 2002 to
January 2018.
The following chart illustrates the four Daft rent indices normalised to a starting value of 100 in January
2002. The starting value of Index 1 which starts in January 2006 has been set to the average of the value
of the other three indexes at that date.
While the index trends are all very similar, there are reasonably large local variations. This at least
partially devalues the usefulness of this source of data.
The value of Index 1 – the latest Daft national rent index – is likely to be overestimating actual current
rents. But the trend is probably accurate as it is a leading indicator of future rents.

Page 35
The following chart zooms into the interval January 2006 to December 2008 to show some of the
variation between the indices in greater detail.
In particular, the month of the previous peak rents varies from June 2007 to July 2007 to January 2008.
The current Daft rent Index 1 has the peak in January 2008 and this peak is between 2.6% and 3.4%
lower than the peaks of other series.
This is the index that Daft now use to articulate the current rent index as a percentage increase over the
previous peak rent index values.
How Many Renters Are There?
The demand for rental accommodation will be driven by demographics. Quite simply, the more people
there are the greater the demand. The rapid increase in rents as detailed on page 21 onwards would tend
to imply that demand has greatly increased.
Demand is also affected by the participation rate or the propensity to rent within the population. As can
be seen from the information on page 6 onwards, the percentage of renters within the key age cohorts is
increasing. If both the numbers in a given age cohort and the rate of renting for that cohort increase, the
impact on demand will be the greater.
If the numbers in the key renting cohorts and the rates of renting are:
Age Group Number % That Rent Demand
25 - 29 Years N1 R1 N1 x R1
30 - 34 Years N2 R2 N2 x R1
35 - 39 Years N3 R3 N3 x R3
40 - 44 Years N4 R4 N4 x R4

Page 36
then simplistically demand is:
N1 x R1 + N2 x R1 + N3 x R3 + N4 x R4.
If both the numbers and the renting rates change, along the following lines
Age Group Number % That Rent Demand
25 - 29 Years N1 + n1% R1 + r1% (N1 + n1%) x (R1 + r1%)
30 - 34 Years N2 + n2% R2 + r2% (N2 + n2%) x (R2 + r2%)
35 - 39 Years N3 + n3% R3 + r3% (N3 + n3%) x (R3 + r3%)
40 - 44 Years N4 + n4% R4 + r4% (N4 + n4%) x (R4 + r4%)
then simplistically demand becomes:
(N1 + n1%) x (R1 + r1%) + (N2 + n2%) x (R2 + r2%)
+ (N3 + n3%) x (R3 + r3%) + (N3 + n3%) x (R3 + r3%)
Similarly a reduction in supply will cause prices to increase. However the information on the number of
tenancies on page 12 onwards shows that supply in Dublin appears to have remained largely static.
On page 6, I described the age profile of the heads of households that rented, both nationally and in
Dublin.
For example, in Dublin, where the age group of the head of the household was 25 - 29 years 75.88% of
those households rented. This is not the same as the proportion of the total population that rents.
The age groups in Dublin based on the age of the head of the household that rented were:
Age Group Rented
25 - 29 Years 75.88%
30 - 34 Years 61.76%
35 - 39 Years 46.44%
The following table summarises the numbers of heads of households and the total population16 for the
Dublin area for 2016
Age Group Heads of
Households
2016
All Renting
Households
2016
Renting
Households
RTB
Tenancies
2016
Total
Population
2016
Heads of
Households as a
Percentage of
Population
Renting
Households as a
Percentage of
Population
Under 25 Years 13,656 10,872 9,807 430,684 3.17% 2.52%
25 - 29 Years 33,522 25,438 23,068 111,569 30.05% 22.80%
30 - 34 Years 53,205 32,860 28,738 123,426 43.11% 26.62%
35 - 39 Years 59,420 27,593 22,377 120,544 49.29% 22.89%
40 - 44 Years 52,963 19,152 13,662 100,210 52.85% 19.11%
16 The population data is taken from EY006: Population 2011 to 2016 by Age Group, Detailed Marital Status,
County and City and Census Year
https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=EY006&PLanguage=0

Page 37
45 - 49 Years 46,836 13,540 8,432 86,537 54.12% 15.65%
50 - 54 Years 43,575 10,151 5,330 78,349 55.62% 12.96%
55 - 59 Years 40,055 7,911 3,523 70,490 56.82% 11.22%
60 - 64 Years 34,923 6,071 2,136 60,566 57.66% 10.02%
65 Years And Over 101,004 11,548 3,379 164,984 61.22% 7.00%
Total 479,159 165,136 120,452 1,347,359 35.56% 12.26%
The number of renting households includes 44,684 that rent from Local Authorities. Excluding these, as
they are not included in the number of tenancies registered by the RTB, gives 120,452 tenancies. This is
shown in the column Renting Households RTB Tenancies 2016.
The following chart shows the estimated annual population17 for the four age groups that comprise most
renters. It also shows the sum of the population in these groups on the right-hand axis in red.
This shows the changes in the four main renting cohorts from the years 2000 to 2017. The size of the 25 -
29 Years cohort row and then dropped, both as a consequence of immigration up to 2007 and then
emigration and of an aging population.
The size of the 30 - 34 Years cohort rose, levelled off and then fell slightly. Again this was caused by
immigration up to 2007, then emigration and of an aging population.
The size of the 35 - 39 Years and 40 - 44 Years cohorts rose gradually over the interval. This is largely
caused by an aging population over the interval.
The size of the aggregate Total 25 - 44 Years cohort rose rapidly from 2000 to 2007, then levelled-off and
started to increase very gradually from 2013 onwards.
17 The annual population estimates are taken from PEA07: Estimated Population (Persons in April) by Age Group,
Sex, Regional Authority Area and Year
https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=PEA07&PLanguage=0

Page 38
The numbers used to create this chart are (in thousands):
Age Group 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
25 - 29 Years 105.8 109 111.9 113.3 114.9 119.7 131.8 143.9 148.4 143.8 133.8 125.9 117.7 113.1 110.4 110.4 111.8 110.4
30 - 34 Years 83.7 88.5 96.4 100 101.6 104.8 108.4 112.2 114.7 118.7 121.6 127.2 127.6 128.3 127.2 124.6 123.5 120.1
35 - 39 Years 82.3 82.3 83.2 83.6 84.6 86.1 89.3 95.3 99.4 101.5 102.6 103.7 104 106.3 110.5 115.7 120.2 124.2
40 - 44 Years 71.8 74.1 75.5 77.2 78.6 79.9 80.1 82.1 82.4 82.9 84 87.4 88.9 91.4 94.9 97.8 99.6 102.9
Total 25 - 44
Years
343.6 353.9 367 374.1 379.7 390.5 409.6 433.5 444.9 446.9 442 444.2 438.2 439.1 443 448.5 455.1 457.6
The number of tenancies registered by the RTB in Dublin in March 2017 was 124,574 with 272,981
bedrooms. So, in Dublin there should be sufficient tenancies to accommodate those looking to rent. This
number of tenancies does not include those that do not have to be registered – see page 15. So the
amount of rental accommodation will be greater than this.
The size of the core renting population has not significantly increased in the last 10 years.
The following chart overlays the CSO CPI rent index and the Daft rent index (on the left hand axis) with
the Dublin population from 2000 to 2017. The population numbers are shown in thousands on the right-
hand axis in red.
Rents fell from mid-2008 to the end of 2012. During this time the size of the core renting population
remained largely the same. While the size of the renting population of Dublin has increased only slightly
from 2012 onwards, rents have increased quite substantially over the same time.
This could be occur for one or both of the following reasons:
1. All the population increase was due to net immigration who would almost exclusively rent

Page 39
2. The recorded population number underestimates the actual population and thus the actual demand
for rented accommodation
The recorded population in the aggregate Total 25 - 44 Years cohort from 2012 to 2017 was 19,400. This
roughly consisted on the following individual age cohort changes.
Age Group Estimated Change
From 2012 to
2017
25 - 29 Years 21.3
30 - 34 Years 2.4
35 - 39 Years -3.4
40 - 44 Years -1.1
So the main cause of the change in the Dublin population was due to migration, either internal (moving
to Dublin from elsewhere in Ireland to work or study) within Ireland or from outside Ireland.
It may be that the rental market in Dublin represents an ill-conditioned system, that is, one where the
output value of the system changes substantially as a consequence of a small change in the input value.
Supply and demand may be so balanced that a small increase is demand or a small decrease in demand
may cause a disproportionate change in rents.
The sensitivity of the rental market could be increased by removing the turnover of people leaving the
rental market on purchasing a property.
However, the potential issue of unrecorded population increase due to migration cannot be discounted.
The rent indices listed above are national and the population numbers were local to Dublin. The rent
indices for Dublin would have shown a higher local increase than that which applied nationally.
The following chart overlays the CSO CPI rent index and the Daft rent index with the national
population from 2000 to 2017. The population numbers are shown in thousands on the right-hand axis in
red.

Page 40
The main difference from the Dublin profile is that nationally the population in the aggregate Total 25 -
44 Years cohort fell from a peak in 2013. Yet the national rent indices increased substantially at the
same time.
Even in the interval 2008 to 2010 when the population in the aggregate Total 25 - 44 Years cohort was
increasing substantially, the rent indices recorded a fall.

Page 41
What Is The Effect Of Airbnb On The Residential Rental Market?
There have been comments on the impact of Airbnb on the property rental market. It is frequently
stated that many landlords are switching their rental properties to Airbnb and thus reducing the number
of properties available for general rental.
Inside Airbnb (http://insideairbnb.com/get-the-data.html) contains a snapshot of Dublin rentals from 18
February, 2017.
There are also commercial providers of Airbnb data such as https://www.airdna.co/market-
data/app/ie/default/dublin/overview.
The Inside Airbnb data lists the following rentals for Dublin:
Entire Home/Apartment Private Room Shared Room
Type Number Bedrooms Spaces Number Bedrooms Spaces Number Bedrooms Spaces
Apartment 2,123 3,212 8,171 1,548 1,566 3,082 105 105 164
Bed & Breakfast 6 18 30 180 206 457 6 6 13
Boat 1 1 2 1 1 2 0 0 0
Bungalow 15 29 62 13 13 28 1 1 2
Cabina 27 42 104 20 20 41 0 0 0
Camper/RV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 6
Chalet 7 6 23 1 1 2 0 0 0
Condominium 15 28 63 19 19 39 2 2 2
Dorm 0 0 0 9 9 26 2 2 5
Guesthouse 7 8 17 2 2 3 4 4 7
Hostel 0 0 0 2 2 8 1 1 4
House 849 2,289 4,513 1,488 1,512 2,954 55 55 130
Hut 2 3 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
Loft 11 11 39 15 15 29 1 1 2
Nature Lodge 2 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other 34 53 130 27 27 60 3 3 4
Serviced Apartment 8 16 31 6 8 11 0 0 0
Townhouse 56 129 260 49 47 100 0 0 0
Treehouse 1 4 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
Villa 1 4 7 3 4 6 0 0 0
Total 3,165 5,853 13,472 3,383 3,452 6,848 181 181 339
The spaces value is taken from the stated numbers the rentals can accommodate. It may or may not be
realistic.
The number of rentals for the types of Apartment, Bungalow, House, Serviced Apartment and
Townhouse where the entire property is to let is 3,051 with 5,675 bedrooms. There are the types of unit
that are being displaced from standard rental by Airbnb.
The Inside Airbnb data represents 2.45% of the 124,574 registered tenancies (see page 14) and 2.08% of
the 272,981 bedrooms in those tenancies.

Page 42
It should be further noted that while the Inside Airbnb data lists 6,729 Airbnb properties available (in
February 2017), Airdna (which is more current) lists only 6,104.
This does not represent a significant proportion of the available tenancies. Focussing on Airbnb as a
major cause of the problem and thus the source of a solution to the current high rents in Dublin would
be misplaced.
The Rise of the Institutional Residential Property Letting Investor
These are some very high-level notes on this subject. It is beyond the scope of this analysis to perform a
more detailed analysis.
One of the trends that has emerged in the last ten or so years is the rise of institutional residential
property letting investor.
In broad terms, there are two types of such investor:
1. Those investing in residential properties for general letting
2. Those investing (typically) high-end student accommodation
The only public source of data relating to this is the property price register. Information is only recorded
on this register if a sale transaction occurs. For example, in the case of student accommodation that has
been developed and retained by the developer without a sale occurring, there is no record of this on the
property price register. This information contained in the register is not consistent. In some cases, the
purchase of an entire block (or blocks) of apartments is registered as a single transaction. For example,
the following purchases were recorded as single transactions:
Address Purchase Price
Block F K and L Central Park, Leopardstown €86,365,000.00
Blocks F K and L Central Park, Leopardstown €70,503,358.00
Binary Hub Roe's Lane, Bonham Street €69,208,163.00
1 THE ELYSIAN, EGLINTON STREET, CORK €67,700,000.00
Tallaght Cross West, Tallaght €64,085,057.00
Clancy Barracks, Clancy Quay €61,828,634.00
CLANCY QUAY, ISLANDBRIDGE €60,528,634.00
The Elysian, Eglinton Street €52,000,000.00
Other transactions less obviously involve the purchase of large numbers of residential units and could
represent data errors, such as:
Address Purchase Price
3 THE LINKS, ELM PARK, MERRION RD DUBLIN 4 €49,315,625.00
APT 1 THOMOND VILLAGE, UNIVERSITY OF LIMERICK GARRAUN,
CLONLARA
€33,180,000.00
Of the top 65 transactions by price listed in the property price register that appear to apply to the
purchase of multiple units, only nine were for new properties. The remaining 56 were for already
properties.

Page 43
In other cases, the units involved in the sale are listed as multiple individual transaction, each with a
slightly different address, such as:
Date Number of
Transactions
Listed
Address Total Purchase
Price
01/06/2012 210 Apt 1 Alliance Building, The Gasworks Barrow Street,
South Lotts Road
€34,940,947
25/06/2014 111 Apartment 203 Bushy Park House, Templeogue Road,
Terenure
€26,300,000
06/10/2014 123 Aot 435 Charlestown Centre, Charlestown Place, St
Margaret's Road Finglas
€23,419,706
28/01/2015 105 2 South Central, Rockbrook, Sandyford €25,897,951
17/02/2016 115 10 The Links, Elm Park, Merrion Road €38,845,853
Where the threshold for the number of properties bought at the same address on the same day is set to
six or more for that purchase to be regarded as institution, the following sets of purchases in Dublin can
be regarded as institutional.
Quarter Value of Purchases Number of Purchases Number of
Residential Units
Bought
2010 Q1 €0 0 0
2010 Q2 €0 0 0
2010 Q3 €0 0 0
2010 Q4 €5,018,715 2 23
2011 Q1 €613,216 1 7
2011 Q2 €0 0 0
2011 Q3 €0 0 0
2011 Q4 €4,514,195 2 31
2012 Q1 €3,303,965 1 15
2012 Q2 €34,940,947 3 210
2012 Q3 €11,424,295 4 76
2012 Q4 €0 0 0
2013 Q1 €0 0 0
2013 Q2 €0 0 0
2013 Q3 €10,360,594 5 70
2013 Q4 €3,004,171 2 31
2014 Q1 €2,152,340 1 20
2014 Q2 €32,798,001 3 134
2014 Q3 €43,293,390 4 40
2014 Q4 €70,571,042 22 334
2015 Q1 €21,290,223 8 109
2015 Q2 €58,879,387 26 305
2015 Q3 €3,845,000 2 19
2015 Q4 €4,751,253 3 33
2016 Q1 €14,681,145 8 66
2016 Q2 €8,985,181 3 32

Page 44
Residential Units
Bought
2016 Q3 €7,253,779 4 31
2016 Q4 €19,894,921 4 66
2017 Q1 €35,278,440 7 119
2017 Q2 €32,770,712 9 124
2017 Q3 €23,816,849 7 128
2017 Q4 €22,519,134 6 95
2018 Q1 €3,331,395 2 14
Total €144,865,230 39 577
The national numbers using the same selection factors are:
Residential Units
Bought
2010 Q1 €5,991,186 1 16
2010 Q2 €0 0 0
2010 Q3 €0 0 0
2010 Q4 €5,018,715 2 23
2011 Q1 €2,852,996 3 24
2011 Q2 €813,524 1 7
2011 Q3 €4,044,000 2 24
2011 Q4 €4,994,195 3 39
2012 Q1 €3,303,965 1 15
2012 Q2 €35,302,181 4 217
2012 Q3 €11,424,295 4 76
2012 Q4 €1,459,129 3 25
2013 Q1 €2,508,916 3 31
2013 Q2 €0 0 0
2013 Q3 €10,360,594 5 70
2013 Q4 €3,556,431 5 54
2014 Q1 €4,206,254 5 74
2014 Q2 €33,822,928 6 164
2014 Q3 €44,011,194 6 55
2014 Q4 €81,250,476 34 479
2015 Q1 €22,978,045 15 173
2015 Q2 €69,162,851 35 399
2015 Q3 €9,723,689 11 120
2015 Q4 €7,463,609 8 79
2016 Q1 €17,836,506 12 124
2016 Q2 €9,793,112 4 40
2016 Q3 €10,657,791 11 92
2016 Q4 €26,537,689 11 135
2017 Q1 €62,970,250 14 200
2017 Q2 €42,401,425 16 205
2017 Q3 €27,780,926 11 172
2017 Q4 €34,021,524 17 197

Page 45
Residential Units
Bought
2018 Q1 €7,385,963 5 43
Total €211,755,568 85 1,044
A simple analysis shows that of the 308,403 property transactions currently listed on the property price
register with a total value of €71,707,513,663, around €2.4 billion or 3.4% can be viewed as representing
institutional purchases. (This comprises both the large transactions and the multiple connected
individual transactions.) These probably represent around 13,000 residential units nationally.
Around 75% of these purchases occurred in Dublin. These probably represent around 9,500 residential
units in Dublin. These purchases recorded since 2010 represent just under 8% of the total number of
registered tenancies. To this, any previous purchases would have to be added to get a complete view.
This represents a significant change in the rental sector, especially in Dublin.
There is a belief that residential institutional letters change a higher rent than other residential landlords.
Validating this would require access to the detailed information on registered tenancies held by the RTB.
These could be matched with the addresses of these large-scale purchases.
This would allow the impact of residential institutional lettings on the increases in residential rents to be
isolated from the general trend.
Institutional investors in residential rental property enjoy a more favourable tax treatment than do
individual property investors. This may further increase the number of such institutional investors.
What is The Future for Renting and Renters?
As I mentioned earlier, demand in the form of population in a key driver of rents. It is beyond the scope
of this brief analysis to create population projections in an attempt to forecast demand for rental
properties.
However, historical population data is a useful indicator of future trends. The following shows the
national population estimates for the key renting age cohorts and the overall population (shown on the
right hand axis in red).

Page 46
The rate of increase of the overall population decreased in 2008 and has started to increase again in 2016.
An effective rental sector is a necessary component of a functional residential property market. It allows
people who move to Ireland find a place to live quickly. It allows quick relocation within Ireland. It acts
as a buffer between people leaving the parental home and buying a residential property. In Ireland, the
residential letting component of the market developed informally with little support or intervention or
recognition of its importance until recently. The dysfunctional residential rental market is affecting
other parts of the economy.
The key trends affecting the level of residential rents are:
 Increased demand in the renting cohort of 25 to 44
 Increase in institutional residential letting investor
 No increase is supply
The lack of supply further increases the problem by removing the turnover of people leaving the rental
market on purchasing a property.
The overall increase in the population of Ireland, from 3,626,087 in 1996 to 4,792,490 in 2017 or an
increase of just over 32% in the 21 years. This is a cumulative average annual increase of 1.34%. The
contribution to population increase from the excess of births over deaths averaged around 0.8% in the
interval 1996 to 2017. The remainder of the growth is due to net immigration. In fact, net immigration is
a greater contributor as the immigrants themselves contribute to the birth rate.
The population of Dublin increased by 33.4% between the years 1997 and 2017.
However the population for the Mid-East region that incorporates the counties of Kildare, Louth, Meath
and Wicklow increased by 58.1% between the years 1997 and 2017. This indicates the growth in these
dormitory areas for Dublin. This indicates a potential latent demand for housing in Dublin that cannot
be met and so is driving demand elsewhere. This could indicate that if additional property is made
available in Dublin, these people could attempt to move to Dublin, leading to any increased supply in
the short-term being absorbed by this latent demand.
Supply can only be increased at a lag of several years. So in the short term rents will increase.

Page 47
This has the potential to represents a systemic risk to the overall economy. High rents and the lack of
quality affordable residential rental property will inhibit immigration that is necessary to provide
employees for companies operating in certain economic sectors. It may inhibit companies establishing
themselves in Ireland because of perceived problems with availability of housing and the associated
problems with acquiring and retaining personnel. High rents may lead to a demand for increased wages
which may in turn inhibit economic growth.
Summary
The data publically available on residential renting is patch, disparate and, in some case, of poor quality.
All the rent indices demonstrate the same pattern of increase. The Daft rent index is a leading indicator
of rents based on asking prices for new lettings. In the short-term at least, the introduction of Rent
Pressure Zones (RPZ) do not appear to have changed the trend of increasing rents. So without
interventions in the rent market that reduce demand and/or increase supply, rent prices will likely
increase by between at least 13.5% to 18% by the end of 2019.
Demand for rental properties is driven by increased population. A large part of the population increase
in the renting age groups is due to net immigration who almost exclusively rent. It may also be that the
recorded population number underestimates the actual population and thus the actual demand for
rented accommodation
Most renters are aged between 25 to 44 – 60.7% in 2011 and 60.5% in 2016.
Nationally private landlords accounted for 68.0% of lettings in 2011 and 65.9% in 2016. In Dublin
private landlords accounted 71.1% in 2011 and 69.3% in 2016.
RTB has records for 124,574 tenancies in the Dublin area with 272,981 bedrooms in March 2017. This
excludes Local Authorities and a range of holiday, informal and family property lettings. The number of
tenancies registered with the RTB has increased slightly indicating no drop in supply.
In the five and half years from Jun 2012 to Dec 2017, the number of BTL mortgages dropper by 27,821
or 18.52%. The number of repossessions in the interval was 4,897. So the number of BTL mortgages is
dropping. This may be due to the group of people to who this lending relates – accidental landlords –
selling their investment properties.
The last 10 years has seen the growth of the institutional residential property investor, especially in
Dublin. Around 75% of large-scale multiple unit residential property purchases occurred in Dublin.
These probably represent around 9,500 residential units. This represents a significant change in the
rental sector, especially in Dublin.
There is a belief that residential institutional letters change a higher rent than other residential landlords.
This may be one driver of increased rents.
In the last nine years, only 15,408 new property purchases were registered in Dublin. This illustrates the
lack of new property supply in Dublin to accommodate a growing population and a demand for rental
accommodation.

Page 48
Airbnb rentals represent only 2.45% of the 124,574 registered tenancies and 2.08% of the 272,981
bedrooms in those tenancies and so is not significant.
Problems with availability and affordability of suitable residential rental accommodation represents a
potential systemic economic risk.

Irish Residential Rent Analysis

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Irish Residential Rent Analysis