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Systems Thinking for Teams, Leaders & Policy-Makers John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Ever wonder … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Tough Questions! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Systems Thinking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Systems Thinking ,[object Object],[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
What do children do with new objects? New Object John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Analytic Thinking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Whole =  Σ Parts John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 ?
Analytic Thinking ,[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 President = George + Bush + Republican
Analytic Thinking ,[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Sales Service Quality R&D Sales
[object Object],Peter Senge John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 ,[object Object]
Analytic Thinking ,[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Finance Economics Production Personnel Marketing Management Supply Chain MBA
Analytic Thinking ,[object Object],Our entire culture is based on Analytic Thinking John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
[object Object],[object Object],Analytic Thinking “ Business” is the product of the  interactions  between the parts Finance Economics Production Personnel Marketing Management Supply Chain John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Analytic Thinking ,[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 How is problem-solving approached in companies?
Analytic Thinking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Roll Video
Analytic vs. Systems Thinking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Analytic vs. Systems Thinking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Whole =  Sum of Parts Whole =  Product of Part Interactions John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Analytic vs. Systems Thinking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],How parts work  & the role they play Why events occur John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Why “Change Programs” Fail ,[object Object],[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Rx: Systems Thinking Rx: Thinking Into Results More later…
Systemic Problem-Solving Non-Systems Thinking  John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Today’s solutions tomorrow’s problems Systems Thinking
Tools for Systems Thinking Cause-Effect Diagram John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Analytic Thinking Mostly Cause Theories All Causal Facts Measurement Material Man Mother Nature Machine Method Causal Loop Diagram Systems Thinking
Itching & Scratching John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 + - Itching Scratching + Connection Matrix (Destination) (Source) Biological System
Itching & Scratching John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Pattern = Voice of the System Scratching No Scratching
Voice of the System ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Scratching
Voice of the System ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Scratching
Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 2  Accident Rate 3 Patrol Frequency 1  Vehicle Speed + + - + - Opinion of an Expert
Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 5  Traffic Congestion 6  Bad Weather 4  Raise Driver Age 7  Driver’s Risk Aversion 2  Accident Rate 3 Patrol Frequency 1  Vehicle Speed + + - - + 8  Driver’s Education
Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Expert Opinion
Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 < Accident Rate Vehicle Speed Driver’s Risk Aversion
Product Line Profit John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Product Line Profit John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Sick Call-Ins John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Sick Call-Ins John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Sick Call-Ins John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Cash for Clunkers John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Cash for Clunkers with FeeBate Structure John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Modeling Hierarchy John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Time & Effort Value (Utility) Modeling Hierarchy + Causal Magnitude + Functional Form + Constraints + Learning new language & software  Seeking Structure Instead of Blame + Noise uncertainty with all the above + CLD (Key Variables, Causal Arrows & Signs) VOS
Google CLDs John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Alan Greenspan
Knowledge Networking (Linked Expert CLDs) Expert CLD 1 Expert CLD 2 Expert CLD K Expert CLD 4 Expert CLD 3 T T T T T T T T  = Target Variable John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Knowledge Networking (Linked Expert CLDs) Expert CLD 1 Expert CLD 2 Expert CLD K Expert CLD 4 Expert CLD 3 T T T T T T T T  = Target Variable John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 $
Systemic Problem-Solving using DMAIC John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Knowledge Network
Systems vs. Statistical Thinking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Skills leaders, policy-makers and change agents need to cure corporate arrhythmias
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
I don’t worry about the future; I know what will happen… “… managers will either learn how to optimize the system or they will go out of business.” W. Edwards Deming John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Roll Video
Team Workshops ,[object Object],[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 CRC Press Optimizing the Health of Your Company with Systems Thinking
Thinking Into Results John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Leadership Program Systems Thinking  changes the way organizations see and approach problems Thinking Into Results changes the organization’s paradigms and habitual thought process LifeSuccessCorporate.com
Belief System ,[object Object],[object Object],John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 + Vision Results + Action + + Belief Potential +
Website http://sites.google.com/site/roicreationsllc John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
Systems Thinking for Teams, Leaders & Policy-Makers John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC  Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014

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Systems Thinking For Teams Leaders And Policy Makers

  • 1. Systems Thinking for Teams, Leaders & Policy-Makers John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. What do children do with new objects? New Object John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. Systemic Problem-Solving Non-Systems Thinking John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Today’s solutions tomorrow’s problems Systems Thinking
  • 21. Tools for Systems Thinking Cause-Effect Diagram John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Analytic Thinking Mostly Cause Theories All Causal Facts Measurement Material Man Mother Nature Machine Method Causal Loop Diagram Systems Thinking
  • 22. Itching & Scratching John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 + - Itching Scratching + Connection Matrix (Destination) (Source) Biological System
  • 23. Itching & Scratching John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Pattern = Voice of the System Scratching No Scratching
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 2 Accident Rate 3 Patrol Frequency 1 Vehicle Speed + + - + - Opinion of an Expert
  • 27. Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 28. Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 5 Traffic Congestion 6 Bad Weather 4 Raise Driver Age 7 Driver’s Risk Aversion 2 Accident Rate 3 Patrol Frequency 1 Vehicle Speed + + - - + 8 Driver’s Education
  • 29. Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Expert Opinion
  • 30. Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 < Accident Rate Vehicle Speed Driver’s Risk Aversion
  • 31. Product Line Profit John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 32. Product Line Profit John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 33. Sick Call-Ins John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 34. Sick Call-Ins John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 35. Sick Call-Ins John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 36. Cash for Clunkers John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 37. Cash for Clunkers with FeeBate Structure John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 38. Modeling Hierarchy John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Time & Effort Value (Utility) Modeling Hierarchy + Causal Magnitude + Functional Form + Constraints + Learning new language & software Seeking Structure Instead of Blame + Noise uncertainty with all the above + CLD (Key Variables, Causal Arrows & Signs) VOS
  • 39. Google CLDs John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 40. John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Alan Greenspan
  • 41. Knowledge Networking (Linked Expert CLDs) Expert CLD 1 Expert CLD 2 Expert CLD K Expert CLD 4 Expert CLD 3 T T T T T T T T = Target Variable John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 42. Knowledge Networking (Linked Expert CLDs) Expert CLD 1 Expert CLD 2 Expert CLD K Expert CLD 4 Expert CLD 3 T T T T T T T T = Target Variable John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 43. John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 $
  • 44. Systemic Problem-Solving using DMAIC John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Knowledge Network
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47. I don’t worry about the future; I know what will happen… “… managers will either learn how to optimize the system or they will go out of business.” W. Edwards Deming John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Roll Video
  • 48.
  • 49. John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 CRC Press Optimizing the Health of Your Company with Systems Thinking
  • 50. Thinking Into Results John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Leadership Program Systems Thinking changes the way organizations see and approach problems Thinking Into Results changes the organization’s paradigms and habitual thought process LifeSuccessCorporate.com
  • 51.
  • 52. Website http://sites.google.com/site/roicreationsllc John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 53. Systems Thinking for Teams, Leaders & Policy-Makers John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
  • 54. John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. I’m sure by now we’ve all heard of Lean Thinking. So what is Lean Thinking used for? How about Statistical Thinking? What’s that used for? What about Systems Thinking? Anyone know what Systems Thinking is for?   Have you ever wondered? What causes the economy to cycle or crash? Whether global warming is all bad at its 2000 year high? If there would be less crime if drugs were legal? Why profits rise, fall or stagnate? What healthcare reform or tax reform will lead to? Why change programs tend to fail?   I’m talking about the tough questions everyone has an opinion about!   How would you begin to answer these questions? Would others agree? How would you get other people TO AGREE?   We may argue the answers but the truth is everyone is right from their point of view!   I’d like to thank you for letting me share a vital way of thinking that I feel is missing in most organizations.   It’s Systems Thinking!   Systems Thinking is the only tool I know of that gives us a good chance at agreement to the tough questions. When there is agreement there is progress towards desired results!   Systems Thinking helps us see the impact our policies or actions have on the organization, culture, or the environment so we can create sustainable change for the greater good.   We need to start thinking this way if we want to get the results we desire as a response-able company or community.   Systems Thinking also helps us share and combine our knowledge about how the world works, and it’s easy to learn because it requires the same level of thinking needed to create a Cause-Effect Diagram.
  2. But we didn’t start out this way…
  3. Give a 2-5 year old a new object and they will examine and begin to take it apart. This is a learning process called “analysis” which has three parts…
  4. Dr. Senge is Director of the Center for Organizational Learning at MIT&apos;s Sloan School of Management, a group of corporations that work together advancing methods and knowledge for the building of learning organizations.
  5. You don’t study “Business” - You study it’s parts and are left to figure out how it all fits together. How did you feel when you graduated from HS or College?
  6. Understanding “Business” requires an understanding of the interaction among the parts
  7. If you have a headache what to you do? Get brain surgery?
  8. It’s not that upper management doesn’t support Lean-6Sigma (they always want people to do things faster &amp; better)
  9. If the team feels magnitude is &lt;&lt; 1 this is a sign a key variable is missing.
  10. http://images.google.com/images?sourceid=navclient&amp;rlz=1T4ACAW_enUS301US302&amp;q=causal%20loop%20diagrams&amp;um=1&amp;ie=UTF-8&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=N&amp;tab=vi
  11. If interested, leave your contact info and dates you are available.