How to solve complex problems

ANALYTICAL PROBLEM-SOLVING
© Copyright, Arnaud Chevallier. All rights reserved.

Arnaud Chevallier / July 2010 (Revised)

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at powerful-problem-solving.com

We all solve problems daily

“How should we complement our product portfolio?”

“Why haven’t we met our sales target?”

“How can we reduce illegal immigration?”

...

Download this presentation at http://powerful-problem-solving.com 2 :41

But most of us haven’t received formal training
on how to do it

From Cartoonbank.com


This presentation shows how
basing your resolution on key
questions can help

We’ll see how to:
• Define optimally your problem
• Solve it with an issue tree


This presentation shows how to define a problem and how to plan
its solution

Basing your problem-
We all solve But we don’t do
problems it optimally solving on key
questions can help

Define the problem Identify the solution

Define the key Understand Build the
Improve it
question the context issue tree


solving on key
questions can help


Improve it


First, you have to identify the right key question (we’ll
consider only “how” and “why” questions)



This can be more difficult than it sounds
Problem: the cars of the employees of a company don’t
fit into the parking lot
What’s the key question?



For instance, it is easy to consider only one
aspect of the problem

How can we
increase the
capacity of the
lot?

After M. Jones, The Thinker’s Toolkit



Expending its
dimensions
How can we
increase the
capacity of the
lot?
Putting more
cars in the
current space




Building a new
Expending its floor
dimensions
How can we Using a new parcel
increase the
capacity of the
lot?
Putting more
cars in the
current space




Building a new
Expending its floor
dimensions
increase the
capacity of the
Reducing the size of
lot?
each space
Putting more
cars in the
current space Reducing the area not
dedicated to parking



aspect of the problem (cont’d)

How can we
reduce the
number of cars?




Reducing the number of
employees
How can we
reduce the
number of cars?
Increasing the number
of employees per car




Moving part of the
company elsewhere
employees
How can we Eliminating jobs
reduce the
number of cars?
Increasing the number




Moving part of the
company elsewhere
employees
How can we Eliminating jobs
reduce the
Making that more
number of cars?
employees use other
Increasing the number means of transportation
Promoting car
pooling



So ensure you are solving the right problem (not a part,
not a symptom)
Building a new
Expending its floor
dimensions
increase the
capacity of the Reducing the size of
lot? each space
Putting more
cars in the
How can we current space Reducing the area not
solve the dedicated to parking
saturation of the
Moving part of the
lot? Reducing the company elsewhere
number of
employees Eliminating jobs
How can we
reduce the Making that more
number of employees use other
cars? Increasing means of
the number of transportation
employees
per car Promoting car
pooling

The key question encompasses all the other
relevant ones

? ?
? ? ?
? ?
? ? ? ?
?
?
?
?

✔ Key question ✘


The key question must have the right scope:
neither too narrow nor too wide

Make the key question...
Neither too vague
Nor too narrow / oriented in the wrong direction /
based on a hypothesis / compounded


To fully describe your problem you must complement
your key question with an introductory flow...

Situation:
C
O The non controversial, relevant information about the problem.
N ONLY the relevant information
T
E Complication:
X
T The unique need for change (potentially illustrated by some of its
symptoms/consequences)

Key question: THE question you want to answer

Adapted from Barbara Minto, The Minto Pyramid Principle

... and a definition of the environment

Criteria for a high-quality tree:
Optional actions that will ensure that your tree is of superior quality
S
c
o Implementation parameters: Out of scope:
p
e Deadlines, budget, numerical Actions that you could take but
objectives, etc. decide upfront not to

Use only action verbs


At the end, you might find it convenient to summarize
your problem in a problem identity card
Problem Identity Card
Project:

Situation:
C The key issue: the non controversial, relevant information about the
O
N problem. ONLY the relevant information
T
E
X Complication:
T The unique need for change (potentially illustrated by some of its
symptoms/consequences)

Key question: THE question you want to answer
Criteria for a high-quality tree:
S Optional action that will ensure that your tree is of superior quality
C
O
P Implementation parameters: Out of scope:
E
Deadlines, budget, numerical Actions that you could take
objectives, etc. but decide upfront not to

After Andersen Consulting, Issue-Based Problem Solving


solving on key
questions can help


Improve it


Issue trees have four basic rules

Go from the key
question to the analysis

Are MECE

Issue trees

Are perspicacious

Keep asking “why” or “how”


A tree goes from the key question to the data
sources
Data needed /
Sub-...-issue Hypothesis Analysis
Source
H1: Increasing the
price of our entire
family product will A1: Conduct
generate more D1: Client
simulation,
revenue than the one interviews
benchmark
lost because of the
associated sales
volume decrease
H2: ... A2: ... D2: ...

H3: ... A3: ... D3: ...

How can we H4: ... A4: ... D4: ...
increase our
profitability For all products

Only for specific
products
Switching suppliers
The analysis tests if
the hypothesis
Negotiating better
makes sense; it
doesn’t explain how
to implement it!

sources
Data needed /
Key question Sub-issue Sub-...-issue Hypothesis Analysis
Source
H1: Increasing the
price of our entire
simulation,
benchmark
lost because of the
associated sales
volume decrease
How can we H2: ... A2: ... D2: ...
➚ our
H3: ... A3: ... D3: ...
revenues?

How can we H4: ... A4: ... D4: ...
increase our

Only for specific
products
Switching suppliers
How can we
➘ our the hypothesis
costs? Negotiating better
makes sense; it
to implement it!

sources
Sub-sub- Data needed /
issue Source
H1: Increasing the
price of our entire
simulation,
benchmark
lost because of the
➚ prices? associated sales
volume decrease
How can we H2: ... A2: ... D2: ...
➚ our
H3: ... A3: ... D3: ...
revenues?
➚ volume?
How can we H4: ... A4: ... D4: ...
increase our

Only for specific
products
Switching suppliers
How can we
➘ our the hypothesis
makes sense; it
to implement it!

sources
Sub-sub- Data needed /
issue Source
H1: Increasing the
price of our entire
simulation,
benchmark
lost because of the
volume decrease
How can we H2: ... A2: ... D2: ...
➚ our
H3: ... A3: ... D3: ...
revenues?
➚ volume?
How can we H4: ... A4: ... D4: ...
increase our

Raw materials Only for specific
costs? products
Switching suppliers
How can we
➘ our Employee
costs?
the hypothesis
makes sense; it
Other costs?
to implement it!

sources
Sub-sub- Sub-...- Data needed /
issue issue Source
H1: Increasing the
price of our entire
Of all generate more D1: Client
products? simulation,
benchmark
lost because of the
Of only specific volume decrease
How can we products? H2: ... A2: ... D2: ...
➚ our
H3: ... A3: ... D3: ...
revenues?
➚ volume?
How can we H4: ... A4: ... D4: ...
increase our

costs? products
Switching suppliers
How can we
➘ our Employee
costs?
the hypothesis
makes sense; it
Other costs?
to implement it!

sources
issue issue Source
H1: Increasing the
price of our entire
benchmark
lost because of the
➚ our
➚ publicity? H3: ... A3: ... D3: ...
revenues?
➚ volume?
How can we ➚ offers? H4: ... A4: ... D4: ...
increase our

costs? products
Switching suppliers
How can we
➘ our Employee
costs?
the hypothesis
makes sense; it
Other costs?
to implement it!

sources
issue issue Source
H1: Increasing the
price of our entire
benchmark
lost because of the
➚ our
➚ publicity? H3: ... A3: ... D3: ...
revenues?
➚ volume?
How can we ➚ offers? H4: ... A4: ... D4: ...
increase our
➘ the quantity
of raw
materials?
costs? products
Switching suppliers
How can we Get cheaper
➘ our Employee
costs?
raw the hypothesis
costs? materials? Negotiating better
makes sense; it
Other costs?
to implement it!

Each column describes in further detail—or solves—
the previous one
issue issue Source
Because they Increasing the
H1:
think they don’t of our entire
price
need it family product will
A1: Conduct
Because they generate more D1: Client
don’t want simulation,
Because they are than the one benchmark
revenue interviews
Because they lazy lost because of the
don’t take associated sales
Because they volume decrease
Because courses
can’t H2: ... A2: ... D2: ...
they don’t
want to take H3: ... A3: ... D3: ...
Because they
a first one
prefer to use
Why aren’t there other delivery
more instructors H4: ... A4: ... D4: ...
methods
taking
improvement
courses online?
...

Because they
Because didn’t like it
they tried it
but don’t
want to take
another Because they
think they don’t
need it


Items in the tree are ideas: questions, action verbs,
hypotheses. They aren’t just titles



How can we
How can we increase revenue?
increase
profitability? How can we
reduce costs?
✔



How can we Increasing revenues
How can we How can we
increase revenue? increase
increase
profitability? profitability?
How can we Reducing costs
reduce costs?
✔ ✔



increase
reduce costs?
✔ ✔
Raw materials?

How can we Employees?
➘ costs?

Costos?
✔


increase
reduce costs?
✔ ✔
Raw materials? Revenue
How can we
How can we increase
Employees? profitability?
➘ costs?
Costs

Costos?
Doesn’t work because

✔ you have to infere
what to do with the
revenue and costs
✘

Each move to the right must bring some value
Because they think
they don’t need it
Because they
don’t want
Because they are
Because they lazy
don’t take courses
Because they
Because they can’t
don’t want to
take a first
Because they
one
prefer to use other
Why aren’t there delivery methods
more instructors
taking
improvement
courses online?

Because they
didn’t like it
Because they
tried it but
don’t want to
take another Because they think
they don’t need it


Issue trees always diverge: each column has more
elements than the previous one...

Adding the info
of the new
personnel

How can we Eliminating the
maintain the info of the
personnel personnel
database up to leaving the
date? company
Capturing the
changes in the
personnel
moving within
the company



Adding the info
of the new
personnel

How can we Eliminating the Own
maintain the info of the personnel
personnel personnel
Outsourced
date? company
personnel
Capturing the
changes in the
personnel
moving within
the company

✘


1
Adding the info
Adding the info Own personnel
of the new
of the new
personnel
personnel Outsourced personnel

How can we Eliminating the Own
How can we Eliminating the
maintain the info of the personnel
maintain the info of the Own personnel
personnel personnel
personnel personnel
Outsourced database up to leaving the
date? company Outsourced personnel
personnel date? company
Capturing the
Capturing the
changes in the
changes in the
personnel
personnel
moving within
moving within
1
the company
the company

✘ ✔

... similarly, each item has, at least, two sub-items

An issue with a single sub-issue has a problem:
Either there are other possibilities or
The group {issue / sub-issue} is redundant


... similarly, each item has, at least, two sub-items

An issue with a single sub-issue has a problem:
Either there are other possibilities or
The group {issue / sub-issue} is redundant

How can we get Increasing the inscription
more students? of new students

✘

Issue trees rely on mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive (MECE) groupings

A B
C
A B A B
D D C

Mutually exclusive Collectively exhaustive
MECE sets
sets sets

MECE?


Issue trees rely on mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive (MECE) groupings

A B
C
A B A B
D D C

Mutually exclusive Collectively exhaustive
MECE sets
sets sets
Because they don’t study
enough
MECE? Because I grade very
Why are the grades steeply
of my students Because my evaluation
mediocre? tool is inappropriate
Because the material of the
exam wasn’t covered in class
Because they don’t have
the intellectual abilities


Issue trees are perspicacious

- Where am I? From Cartoonbank.com




- In a car, M’am




-At the intersection of Westheimer
- In a car, M’am
and Fourth.


Each tree progresses to the right consistently asking
“why” or “how” (only one type for any given tree)



Diagnostic - “Why?” Cause

Break the problem in its
potential causes Problem Cause

Cause





Cause

Solution - “How?” Action

Identify alternative
solutions for the problem Problem Action

Action





Cause

Solution - “How?” Action

Identify alternative
solutions for the problem Problem Action

Action

Each tree follow the same pattern (either it is a “how” or a
“why” but not both

“How” trees do not describe a sequential process; they
show alternative solutions to the problem

Cartoons are from Cartoonbank.com


1. Electing a
means of
transportation

2. Buying a
How can I go ticket
from NYC to
London?
3. Going to
the port/
airport

4. Boarding

✘ Cartoons are from Cartoonbank.com


Using a plane

Using a helicopter
1. Electing a Flying
means of Using a balloon
transportation
Using a rocket
2. Buying a How can I go
How can I go ticket from NYC to
from NYC to London? With a raft
Traveling on
London?
the surface
3. Going to
the port/ Swimming
airport Traveling
by sea
4. Boarding

✘ Using a
submarine ✔
Cartoons are from Cartoonbank.com

“How” trees lead to actions that can solve the key
question, no to some analysis

How can we
improve the
elaboration of
invoices?



How do we make the clients’
specifications clear?

How can we
improve the
elaboration of
✔
invoices?




How can we
improve the
elaboration of
✔
invoices?
How do we know if our
employees understand the
specifications?

✘



How can we
improve the
elaboration of
✔
invoices?
How do we know if our How do we ensure that our
employees understand the employees understand the
specifications? specifications

✘ ✔

A few tips can help improve your trees

Make them parallel
Diverge

How do you Accept alternatives
improve your Enlist others
trees?
Change as you go
Make sense
Adapt your level of confidence


Effective trees are parallel

They are parallel in action



Improving the Improving the
How can we shopping experience shopping experience
improve our
clients’
experience?
Following up after Improving the post-

✘ ✔
the sales sale experience



improve our
clients’
experience?

✘ ✔

They are parallel in construction



improve our
clients’
experience?

✘ ✔

They are parallel in construction
Reducing our Reducing our delivery
delivery time time
How can we Increasing our
improve the post- Increasing our friendliness
sale experience? friendliness
How can we solve the Solving the problem
problem the first time
our? ✘ the first time out
✔

Columns have elements of similar weight. You can
check for this by ensuring that no column has an
outlier

How do we
increase
revenues?


outlier

Adding new services
How do we
increase Increasing prices
revenues?

Increasing volumes
✘


outlier

Adding new services
How do we
increase Increasing prices
revenues?

Increasing volumes
✘
Increasing prices
Increasing revenues
with our current
How do we services
increase Increasing volumes
revenues?

Adding new services
✔

You will need to be creative to have exhaustive trees, which
will require to get out of your comfort zone
Value of the
idea

Creative

Obvious Absurd

Difficulty of implementation

Source: Accenture, Tools and Frameworks Pocket Guide

To be creative, be prepared to ignore the
consequences of your ideas, at least at the beginning


“Nice, but we’ll need an environmental-impact study, a
warranty, recall bulletins, recycling facilities, and twenty-four-
hour customer support.”


You can solve each problem with more than just one
tree

Ensure that for each division in your tree, you can find a name for the group of
sub-issues you are creating


tree
Reducing
variable costs

How do we
reduce our
costs?

Direct
Reducing
fixed costs
Indirect

Classifying by
cost type ✔


tree
Reducing Reducing
variable costs production costs

How do we
Reducing marketing
reduce our
costs
costs?

Direct Reducing
Reducing administrative costs
fixed costs
Indirect Reducing other costs

Classifying by Classifying by the
cost type ✔ origin of the cost ✔


As your analysis moves forward, be prepared to modify
your tree

Apply judgement between “satisficing” (accepting the first
acceptable solution) and “maximizing” (keep on searching for
the optimal solution)

Modify your tree as your analysis reveals if your hypotheses
are true or false

See also Barry Schwartz, The Paradox of Choice

As your build your analytical structure, review
it periodically to ensure it makes sense

“Farewell my dear fellows, I am
off to the Seven Years War!”


Problems have different orders of complexity

Problem types
Role of expertise
Role of facts

Complexity

DETERMINISTIC, DETERMINISTIC, RANDOM, FINITE RANDOM,
DIRECT COMPUTED CONTINUOUS
You can identify all
A direct answer You can compute the possible answer The answer is part
exist the answer but cannot pick the of a continuum, you
correct one can only determine
its range

E.g. What is the E.g. How do you E.g. Who will be the E.g. How profitable
height of the Eiffel convert liters to largest car will we be next
Tower? gallons manufacturer in ten quarter?
years?
Adapted from Morgan Jones, The Thinker’s Toolkit

You need to adapt your confidence in your
solutions accordingly
Problem types
Role of expertise
and probability of
error

Role of facts and
trust in findings

Complexity

DETERMINISTIC, DETERMINISTIC, RANDOM, FINITE RANDOM,
DIRECT COMPUTED CONTINUOUS
You can identify all
A direct answer You can compute the possible answer The answer is part
exist the answer but cannot pick the of a continuum, you
correct one can only determine
its range

E.g. What is the E.g. How do you E.g. Who will be the E.g. How profitable
height of the Eiffel convert liters to largest car will we be next
Tower? gallons manufacturer in ten quarter?
years?
Adapted from Morgan Jones, The Thinker’s Toolkit

Closing, basing your problem solving on key questions can
improve it drastically
We all solve But we don’t do
problems it optimally solving on key questions
can help


Define the key Understand the Build the issue
tree Improve it
question environment

Don’t make Identify Go from
Define Be
it too the Define the key Be Ask “why”
S, C, perspicaci
narrow nor quality scope question to MECE or “how”
KQ ous
too vague criteria analysis

Accept Enlist Change as Make Adapt your
Be parallel Diverge
alternatives others you go sense confidence


References
Andersen Consulting, Issue-Based Problem Solving, The Consulting Resource Book
Version 3, September 1999
Linda Long, The Power of Logic in Problem Solving & Communication, Strategic
Communication Consulting, 2004
Morgan D. Jones, The Thinker’s Toolkit, Random House: New York, 1998
James M. Higgins, 101 Creative Problem Solving Techniques, New Management
Publishing Company: Winter Park, 1994
James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds, Random House, 2004
Barry Schwartz, The Paradox of Choice, HarperCollins, 2004
Strategic Services, Tools and Frameworks Pocket Guide, Internal Publication,
Accenture
Issue-Based Problem Solving, Internal Publication, Accenture
Barbara Minto, The Minto Pyramid Principle, Minto International: London, 1996
Edward de Bono, Serious Creativity: Using the Power of Lateral Thinking to Create New
Ideas
Michael Michalko, Thinkertoys: A Handbook of Business Creativity for the 90s


See more and download this presentation at
powerful-problem-solving.com

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