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#NoEstimates
@YvesHanoulle
1
#NoEstimates
What’s in the name?
Why not ?
#BeyondEstimates
#BetterPrediction
2
WHY
#NoEstimates
?
3
How good can YOU
estimate?
4
In 1986, Profs. S.D. Conte, H.E. Dunsmoir, and V.Y.
Shen proposed that a good estimation approach
should provide estimates that are within 25% of
the actual results 75% of the time
--Steve McConnel, Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art
5
Who has delivered a project ?
- on time
- within budget
- what was requested
within 25%
6
Who has delivered 7,5 out of 10 projects?
- on time
- within budget
- what was requested
within 25%
7
I need two
volunteers
8
How long do you think it
will take them to distributed
9
No estimates2015
timekeeper?
11
START !
12
result?
13
my prediction
14
15
have a large range
16
between
5 seconds & 10 minutes
17
chaos report
18
chaos report
19
80% Late
or Failed
Source: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell
chaos report
20
Source: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell
The larger the project,
the bigger the
problem
21
cone of uncertainty
22
cone of uncertainty
23
cone of uncertainty
not scientific
BIAS
24
BIAS
25
BIAS
26
WHY
do we
estimate?
contracts
who wins a contract
bidding?
No estimates2015
Why do we have
budgets?
this is our budget
budget
budget
situation 1
cost
thank
you
budget
situation 2
cost
saving
budget
situation 2
cost
you over estimated. Next year
you will only get 80% of your
requested budget
saving
budget
situation 2 year +1
cost
let’s spend this
budget
situation 3
cost
extra budget
requested
budget
situation 3: A
cost
extra budget
requested
rejected !!
X
budget
situation 3: A
cost
extra budget
requested
rejected !!
I hope you delivered in small
chunks
X
budget
situation 3: B
cost
extra budget
requested
Approved. Please estimate
better next time.
budget
situation 3: year +1
Let’s ask for 120% too avoid the
risk of being rejected.
budget
needed
budget
let’s spend this
1 2
Why do we have
budgets?
budget
budget
3a 3b
Controlling costs makes
cost higher
John Seddon
.hanoulle.be/2010/07/john-seddon-why-controlling-costs-makes-c
what about
story points?
The point
of story
points was
to obscure
time
@RonJeffries
Story of a team
46
No estimates2015
No estimates2015
No estimates2015
No estimates2015
No estimates2015
#NoEstimates
RegularEstimates
“The chart is a snapshot of one team of 20+ teams over a 2 year period.” – Cory Foy
Which is more
predictable
?
it’s NOT just me
54
join @Duarte_Vasco on
http://bit.ly/NoEstimatesProjects
DB
let me repeat
55
#NoEstimates has a
same or better prediction
then estimates
Estimates assume we are in an Ordered Domain, where
reductionism works. Software however is in the Complex
and Complicated domain where reductionism does not
work. #NoEstimates
rules of #NoEstimates
1. Select the most important piece of work you need to do
2. Break that work down into risk neutral pieces of work
3. Develop each piece of work
4. Iterate and refactor
5. ( Count for predictability )
workshop
workshop
create 4 groups of around 10 people
imaging 17 September 2016
you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while.
What have you learned?
workshop
61
workshop
What did not work?
What were the challenges?
What worked?
What were the advantages?
imaging 17 September 2016
you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while.
What have you learned?
62
workshopimaging 17 September 2016
you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while.
What have you learned?
What did not work?
What were the challenges?
What worked?
What were the advantages?
63
workshoppick a side
- what you prefer
- what you disagree with
- to make it even..
What did not work?
What were the challenges?
What worked?
What were the advantages?
64
workshoplet’s discuss
Team red starts with an argumentTeam green replies
65
workshopVOTE
#NoEstimates book
http://noestimatesbook.com
http://j.mp/NoEstimatesBook_Yves_Discount >> 37 % discount till noon tomorrow
@YvesHanoulle
your company?
Available from
1/10/2015
http://j.mp/NoEstimatesBook_Yves_Discount
>> 37 % discount till noon tomorrow

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No estimates2015

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Agile is alive and kicking. Take #NoEstimates and experiment! Be Agile!
  2. Here is a chart that Cory Foy posted on twitter just a few weeks ago.
  3. Agile is alive and kicking. Take #NoEstimates and experiment! Be Agile!