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From Technologies to Markets
© 2021
From Technologies to Markets
From Technologies to Markets
Microcontroller
Quarterly Market
Monitor Q3 2021
-
Secure MCU
Feature Edition
Computing Service 2021
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Tom Hackenberg
Tom Hackenberg is a Principal Analyst for Computing and Software in the Semiconductor,Memory and Computing Division at Yole Développement
(Yole).Tom is engaged in developing processor market monitors and research into related technology trends. He is currentlyfocused on low and
ultralow power.Tom is an industry leading expert with more than a decade’s experience reporting on markets for semiconductor processors.Tom is
also well-versed in related technology trends including IoT, heterogeneous processing, chiplets,AI and edge computing.
Tom holds a BSECE from the University of Texas at Austin.
Email: tom.hackenberg@yole.fr
Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021
Biographies & contact
ABOUTTHE AUTHORS
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• MCU market overview 4
o Executive summary 5
o Introduction 9
o Methodology 11
o Definitions and assumptions 12
• Market size and forecasts 18
o Overall market summary 19
o Smartcard & secure MCU (featured discussion) 28
o Other markets 40
• Automotive 40
• Mobility 47
• Consumer 53
• Personal data processing 57
• Enterprise data processing 61
• Telecommunications infrastructure 65
• Defense and aerospace 69
• Medical 73
• Industrial and other 77
• MCU production 82
o Process and wafer production 83
o Foundry MCU Capex 88
o MCU fabrication 90
• Composite of IDM production 91
• Foundry unit production 92
• Foundry wafer production 93
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
• Regional MCU bookings 94
o By MCU class 96
• Design trends 102
o Embedded memory density 103
o Voltage and frequency 107
o Primary function 109
o Technology ecosystem 111
• Competitive landscape 114
o Top 10 rankings 115
o Overall MCU companies 116
o 4/8/16-bit class 117
o 32-bit class 118
o High-reliability class 119
o Multimarket class 120
o Secure MCU class 121
o Top 5 in rankings 122
o By MCU market 122
• MCU designer profiles 132
• Ranked MCU designer profile 133
• Yole Développement related reports 154
• Yole Développement presentation 156
MCU Market overview
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Welcome to the Premier of Yole Développement’s Microcontroller Monitor, this is the 2021 Q3 Edition. This service is a
presentation of the market for microcontrollers comprised of a data rich quantitative Excel database and this qualitative and
visual view of that data in the over 150 pages of this report.
For your convenience, this page briefly summarizes top level data from the monitor followed by a few graphic overviews to
visualize the market.
• 2020 – Microcontroller Global Market Revenue: $16.1 billion USD
• 2026 – Microcontroller Global Market Revenue: $25.4 billion USD
• 2020 to 2026 Revenue CAGR is 7.8%
• 2020 – Microcontroller Global Market Shipments: 26.8 billion units
• 2026 – Microcontroller Global Market Shipments: 34.9 billion units
• 2020 to 2026 Unit Shipment CAGR is 4.5%
• 2020 to 2026 Average Selling Price CAGR is 3.2%
• 2020 – 4/8/16 bit market share 48%, 32-bit share 52%
• 2026 – 4/8/16 bit market share 34%, 32-bit share 66%
• 2020 – Top 5 MCU Markets by Revenue Share: Automotive 31%, Industrial & Other 24%, Smartcard 14%, Consumer
12% Personal Data Processing 11%
• 2026 – Top 5 MCU Markets by Revenue Share: Automotive 37%, Industrial & Other 27%, Smartcard 11%, Consumer
10% Personal Data Processing 6%
• 2020 – Top 5 MCU Designers by Revenue Share: Renesas 19.0%, NXP 18.0%, Infineon 17.5%, STMicroelectronics 14.0%
Microchip 13%
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
$0
$5 000
$10 000
$15 000
$20 000
$25 000
$30 000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Overall MCU Market Revenue Forecast $(M) with 2020 to 2026 CAGR of X.X%
Total MCU Revenue Prior Edition Comparison
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5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Overall MCU Market Shipment Forecast (M) with 2020 to 2026 CAGR of X.X%
Total MCU Shipments Prior Edition Comparison
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2020 Bit Class Revenue Share
4/8/16-bit 32-bit
2020 Leading Market Revenue Share
Automotive Industrial and Other
Smartcard & Secure MCU Consumer
Personal Data Processing Other Markets
2026 Bit Class Revenue Share
4/8/16-bit 32-bit
2026 Leading Market Revenue Share
Automotive Industrial and Other
Smartcard & Secure MCU Consumer
Personal Data Processing Other Markets
XX%
As the MCU market grows from $16.1B in 2020 to $24.2B in 2026, performance design trends align with performance market growth
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Company A
19,0%
Company B
18,5%
Company C
17,5%
Company D
13,0%
Company E
12,5%
Company F
8,5%
Company G
2,5%
Company H
1,5%
Company I
1,5%
Company J
1,5%
Rest of Market
4,0%
Autre
11,0%
2019 Top Ten Overall MCU Rev Share
Company A
19,0%
Company B
18,0%
Company C
17,5%
Company E
14,0%
Company D
13,0%
Company F
7,5%
Company G
2,5%
Company H
1,5%
Company I
1,5%
Company J
1,5%
Rest of Market
4,0%
Autre
11,0%
2020 Top Ten Overall MCU Rev Share
In 2020, the $16.1B MCU market is dominated by the top 5 designers which supply over 80% of the MCU Market
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INTRODUCTION
Welcome
Introducing the Microcontroller Monitor Tracker from Yole Développement. This is the 2021 Q3 Edition.The goal of this service is to provide a
comprehensive supply chain view of the microcontroller (MCU) market by providing the essential data enabling well-informed actionable decisions
for all participants in the microcontroller value chain.
About this Monitor
The scope of this report includes quarterly data from the prior, current and next year forecast. It provides annual data from the prior two years,
current year and next five-year forecast for key market metrics including MCU Class,Market, and Applications in terms of Revenue, Shipments and
Average Selling Price.
It also provides key value chain characteristics including design attributes, list of suppliers, market leaders and shares, leader profiles. It provides
manufacturing data and the relationship of MCU process node, manufacturing share, and wafer starts.
Before diving into the rich data presented in the accompanying database, please allow us to present some background for your convenience.This
introductory section will provide some context of the research and define some of the terms and classifications to better understand the value of
the data presented.
Following the definitions, there will be a discussion of some of the current key trends in the overall market.Then the report will provide more
depth into classes and markets.We’ll delve into the design features.We’ll present the competitive landscape with details on the leading MCU
suppliers.We will then round out the monitor report with a discussion of the relationship between the MCU landscape and Integrated Design
Manufacturers (IDM) and Foundry services.
Featured Content
Each edition of the monitor will provide an expanded discussion of one or more markets or trends to provide even greater depth of
understanding of MCUs in that scope.This edition features an in-depth look at the Secure MCU Class and the Smartcard and Secure Embedded
MCU Market.
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INTRODUCTION
This monitor will provide quarterly updates.With each update, the report will present a
featured topic for detailed and in-depth analysis of the important trends in the context of
the featured presentation.
The prior edition, Q2, of the Microcontroller Monitor featured and in-depth look at the
applications in Automotive and Mobility, with highly related market trends.
In this edition, Q3, we review the highly evolving trend for Smartcards and Secure MCUs as
they evolve from smartphone subscriber identity modules (SIM) to embedded secure MCUs
and further integrate into MCUs across all markets.
In Q4, the plan is to go more in-depth on the wide variety of Consumer products discussing
‘smart’ products, the strategy of optimizing time-to-market, point-of-sale pricing, brand
identification and other Consumer trends.
Each Edition will also provide updates that highlight any significant changes that have been
made and what assumptions or risks may have led to the update.
AnalystAccess
Subscribers of this service are encouraged to contact the author with questions or
discussions of the data presented in the monitor, requests for upcoming featured topics, or
any recommendations on the content or structure of the monitor.
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METHODOLOGY
This Monitor Service is the culmination of over a decade’s research specifically on the microcontroller market. It is an integral
part ofYole Développement’s portfolio of highly insightful and technically thorough Semiconductor and Software Division
building on the web of semiconductor knowledge.The diagram below shows the quality control standards for production. It is
important to also understand that we target between 15 and 30 interviews per quarter to maintain firsthand knowledge with
MCU supply chain participants to keep the topics presented fresh and relevant for our subscribers.
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DEFINITIONS AND TREATMENTS
Microcontroller (MCU) – A highly cost, power, and area optimized processor for use in
very resource constrained systems. The primary characteristics distinguishing a
microcontroller from other processors are: the presence of on-chip memory, the
presence of a variety or application specific input/output interconnects, the ability to load
a program onto bootable read-only or nonvolatile memory (usually integrated in the
MCU) and allow that program to run beginning at power on without the need of an
operating system. Microcontrollers are frequently recognizable because their cores are
named or labelled as controller cores, having a simpler integrated development
environment to program and a more limited instruction set as compared to
microprocessors, system-on-chip and more application specific processors and
coprocessors.Advanced MCUs can have attributes of higher performing processors such
as multiple cores, integrated coprocessing cores and subsystems, but these are rarer and
still target highly constrained systems. Besides being very capable of operating in
constrained applications, the verifiability and durability of these basic processors can
make them more desirable even for applications that have fewer constraints and require
more performance.
4/8/16-bit and 32-bit Class – a description of the maximum size of a piece of data that
can be transferred or operated on in a clock cycle. It can limit the data coming into or
leaving the processor per clock cycle and limit the size of operation that can be worked
in a clock cycle. Blocks of data too large may have to be broken down into smaller blocks
leading to inefficiencies, so the choices of hardware and software for an application are
typically correlated. This means the higher the bit-class the better suited for more
complex mathematical equations and larger memory addressing.This greater versatility
often comes at the cost of energy, area and price, but the differences in characteristics
between these two classes has narrowed substantially in recent years. So far there has
been insufficient interest in increasing MCU complexity to 64-bit.
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DEFINITIONS AND TREATMENTS
High-Reliability Class – The high-reliability design class is an affiliation between the
characteristics of a specific group of processors and the business line of the processor
designer.The characteristics of high-reliability are resistance to errors and breakdowns due
to heat, vibration, electromagnetic interference, prolonged use, exposure to radiation and
similar strengths. It is usually achieved by careful design, improved packaging, and cherry
picking the highest validations from the manufacturing lots. Historically, these processors may
have been and may still be referred to as automotive grade, military spec, rad hardened, and
various other application related names. It is significant to the MCU Monitor because many
MCU designers build costly manufacturing and business line strategies around optimizing
these characteristics in order to win lucrative contracts for these pricier application-specific
MCUs that also happen to supply long life cycle equipment.
Secure MCU Class – At the exact opposite end of the spectrum from High-Reliability is
the Secure MCU Class which is also and affiliation between the characteristics of a specific
group of processor and the business line of the processor designer. In this case, the Secure
MCU Class is targeting s highly disposable device market with very stripped-down versions
of an MCU.That is not to say that the MCU is poor quality, but it has a smaller instruction
set, small memory footprint, a small count of specific I/O and almost no packaging.The
market that uses this highly cost optimized MCU are smartcards including SIM,bankcard, ID
cards and even some embedded applications.The companies that participate in this market
quite often have very specific manufacturing processes that differ from other classes of MCU
just to service this very simple, yet high volume market. It has fewer barriers to entry and is
very attractive for startups.The expertise behind the crypto engine that is functionally the
application the entire MCU is optimized for, is also being drawn on for more embedded
secure elements.This is likely to be a strong migration as the smartcard market wains.
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DEFINITIONS AND TREATMENTS
Multimarket Class –Where the business lines in High-Reliability and Secure MCU Classes have aligned with
very application-specific specialized manufacturing strategies.The multimarket class is designed to fit the needs
of a wide variety of applications. It includes both general purpose MCUs where the same product may be used
across multiple markets and application-specific MCUs where the manufacturing strategy is more common, but
the MCU featured characteristics have been optimized to be attractive for specific applications.The majority of
MCUs fall in this class.
Market –The report is divided into ten vertical markets (defined later). Market is an arbitrary term to collect
groups of dissimilar products into smaller, more manageable and actionable groups. Markets are typically
chosen by a grouping of end-equipment that share some commonality that influences the entire supply chain. It
influences sales outlets, OEM groups, design strategies and even manufacturing.These markets can further be
subdivided by applications which is a further refinement of commonality.
Class relationship to market – It is unrealistic to try to track every product line and chip produced by
specific classes and characteristics, so models are made and validated to best represent the trends
characterizing the market. One of those model features is to treat specific applications as mostly targeted by
specific MCU Classes such as Automotive Powertrain application as being a market demanding High-Reliability
MCUs.The model holds mostly true but there are going to be exceptions where for whatever reason, an
equipment manufacturer may choose a design that does not adhere to the model. In the end, the exceptions
do not invalidate the points that the data are presenting because the outliers tend to average out.
The graphs on the next page are provided as a visual aid to express the common relationship between Classes,
Markets and Applications for Microcontrollers with the respective market shares intact.
Image Courtesy of Infineon
https://infineon.com
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DEFINITIONS AND TREATMENTS
Markets
• Automotive – End electronic equipment consisting of vehicles classified as light cars and trucks. Light vehicles include both Automotive
markets and fleet vehicles adapted from the same Automotive designs. Other automotive also includes related Automotive markets such as
motorcycles and RVs. It excludes heavy vehicles that are considered in mobility, defense and industrial equipment applications.
• Mobility – End electronic equipment designed to transport people or goods.These vehicles are larger than the light vehicle class. It includes
buses, larger trucks, limousines, maritime transport, commercial and private airplanes and helicopters, trains and tramways.Other mobility
includes a loose variety of vehicles for transportation that have not been specifically identified.
• Consumer – End electronic equipment designed to be used in residential or personal applications, typically purchased through retail outlets
but excluding data processing which are defined in other markets.This category includes, but is not limited to fitness devices, portable
Consumer devices, set-top boxes, televisions, home AV and networking, gaming systems, appliances, home automation and other Consumer
electronics.
• Personal Data Processing – End electronic equipment primarily designed for personal data consumption or personal data creation.This
includes smartphones, mobile phones, media tablets, desktop PCs, portable PCs, smart wearable devices and other personal data processing
devices.
• Smartcard& Secure MCU – End electronic equipment targeting subscriber identity protection.This highly specialized MCU category
applies to smartcards,bank cards, smart ID cards, passports,SIM cards, and embedded secure elements for protecting subscriber identity or
encrypting the device data.
• Enterprise Data Processing – End electronic equipment consisting of devices targeting computing, networking and office data applications
in enterprise, cloud and government agency environments. It includes data center and corporate servers, storage, enterprise networking and
related data processing equipment.
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DEFINITIONS AND TREATMENTS
Markets
• Telecommunications Infrastructure – End electronic equipment designed for the transportation of data and communications between
individuals and enterprises. It includes carrier grade wired infrastructure, mobile infrastructure, backhaul and access equipment, customer
premises equipment supplied by telecommunications and internet operators such as modems, routers and access points. It excludes general
purpose servers, storage and networking, but includes telecommunications devices of a similar design such as gateways, firewalls, universal
customer premises equipment (uCPE).
• Defense and Aerospace – End electronic equipment designed to be used in national defense or aerospace applications operated by or on
behalf of national agencies.This includes multi-system platforms such as ships, aircraft, rockets, and satellites. It includes unmanned vehicles. It
includes installations, munitions and other defense platforms.
• Medical – End electronic equipment primarily designed for healthcare.This includes imaging, instruments, diagnostics, patient monitoring,
Consumer medical, telehealth and other healthcare, hospital or clinical equipment including healthcare research.
• Industrial and Other – End electronic equipment targeting manufacturing, production, commercial and retail. It includes building automation,
factory automation and robotics, agriculture, automated logistics, motors and drives, power and energy, mining, oil & gas, retail and commercial
equipment such as point of sale terminals and digital signage.The other equipment is a general collection of equipment that does not neatly fit
in to another category.
Sub-markets
• Application –Within each of the major markets, there are certain applications that help define the size and trends of the market.The
accompanying Excel database quantifies approximately forty applications to help understand how the market volume and forecasts are being
quantified.The forecasts for MCUs are based on over a hundred end-equipment forecasts and their design tends grouped in these applications.
These equipment forecasts are determined by panels of analysts with expertise in the industry for the purpose of better understanding the
driving trends in the semiconductor industry, including that of MCUs.
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INTRODUCTIONTO MCU CLASS, MARKET & APPLICATION STRUCTURE
Graphic Depiction of 2020 MCU Revenue Structures*
* See associated Excel database for complete legible list of structures
Market size and forecast
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Major Market Trends
Covid 19 – Pandemic impacts the global economy. As previously stated in Q2, the reader needs to be clear that 2019 through 2021 should
not be treated as normal.The presence of the Covid 19 pandemic disrupted all markets including the semiconductor market in varying ways.
Demand in medical markets, especially research, rose and is expected to continue rising.The shift to home office work created a boon market for
personal data processing and enterprise data processing. While enterprise data processing will continue to rise, personal data processing will likely
see negative effects as a natural replacement cycle that was spread out has now been aligned and amplified so the next replacement cycle may take
years to amplify again. Since the Q2 edition, consumer buying also seems to be levelling off.
Supply chain disruption – Not really an automotive semiconductor shortage.The shortages have various causes, including disruptions
due to geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, flaws in just-in-time supply chain strategies and contractual changes. However, the primary cause is
attributed to a sudden downward demand swing due to Covid restrictions causing Automotive OEMs to cancel major orders expecting demand to
wane during the pandemic, when in fact the opposite occurred. Demand suddenly increased and left OEMs in a bind as the foundry capacity had
already been reallocated to SoCs for new computers, home office and Consumer devices which anticipated the rise in demand supporting work at
home.At the same time Apple’s M1 release shifted even more capacity from Intel to TSMC where there was already an imbalance forming.
Despite these disruptions, most microcontrollers are designed and manufactured by integrated design manufacturing (IDM) suppliers. Many IDMs
despite their strategy to increase reliance on cutting edge foundries, were forced to rely more heavily on manufacturing on more classic in-house
manufacturing to meet most MCU demand.With premium SoCs for automotive waiting to regain foundry capacity, MCU demand has been
hampered by closed factories, fewer models and premium vehicles sitting at the OEM waiting for a delayed SoC or display driver.This disruption,
not shortage, should see readjustment in 2022 and newer fabs for high-end capacity coming online by 2026.
Since the Q2 edition, the disruption continues but it has become an issue of trying to realign the just-in-time model to account for abnormal
behaviors and imbalances causing delays as much as 5 weeks or more. Suppliers indicate it is almost impossible to determine which components
may be out of balance each month.
Pricing – New pricing growth trends.As a rule, prices drop and new products with more features replace the old products to bolster the
average selling price, but typically the highly competitive landscape favored decreasing prices.This cycle has described a stable market for many
years.With the supply chain disruption and the generally increasing cost of manufacturing, that trend is reversing. MCU prices are expected to rise
over the next five years.
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GENERAL MARKET OVERVIEW
Covid 19 – Pandemic impacts the global economy.
Supply chain disruption – Not really an automotive semiconductor shortage.
Pricing – New pricing growth trends
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GENERAL MARKET OVERVIEW
Major Market Trends
AI – Not just for cars and data centers. AI is moving into a rapid development cycle for high performance processors such as GPUs and
neural networking (NN) accelerator coprocessors, but machine learning (ML) is just emerging for MCUs.There are still many in the industry that
don’t realize the use cases for ML processed on MCUs.Though MCUs will likely never compete with more powerful processors for ML
applications, frameworks such as TinyML are being designed to enable ML in very resource constrained processors.AI extensions are being added
to MCU architecture.The market is expected to increasingly apply to low-energy ML applications. Since the Q2 edition, the use of TinyML seems
to be accelerating, but the competition from SoCs will remain high. By 2026, it is likely that at least 8% and maybe 10% will apply ML functions.
Electrification and Intelligence – Automotive leads market growth for MCUs. Over the last decade there has been an automotive OEM
strategy to try to redesign the basic control strategy in automobiles to reduce the number of disparate electronic control units (UCU)s connected
by the increasingly overtaxed controller area network (CAN),toward more centralized and CAN-FD (flexible data-rate) or Ethernet connected
Domain Controller (DC).The faster networks and DCs have contributed to enabling more advanced imaging and sensor platforms, more advanced
driver assistance, improved network security and a greatly improved driver and passenger experience. Recently domain control is shifting more
toward zone control which allows for more distributed intelligence and still achieves slightly fewer electronic control units than classic discrete
ECUs.The resulting evolution seems to have achieved more intelligent vehicles rather than a reduction in controllers which continues to drive
MCU quantity and revenue even more so.
More impactful is the strategy of electrification. With an entirely different set of monitoring and control units, as well as energy storage,
regeneration, charging and safety, powertrain is evolving an increased demand for MCUs.This is especially true of hybrid electric vehicles which
require the controls over both an internal combustion engine and an electric power train. Eventually, electrification may allow for more
consolidated control, but for now it is a growth driver. Discussions with OEMs and MCU suppliers since Q2 have indicated electrification is also a
growth driver with synergies in cockpit feature upgrades to accentuate the electric vehicle. Power windows, doors, seats, digital displays and other
more electronic features are expected to increase in EVs which will also increase demand for MCUs beyond powertrain.
RISCV – Mainly custom for now. There is significant interest in the emerging market for RISCV open-source architecture. Many of the MCU
suppliers are members of the RISCV Foundation for varying reasons.While RISCV is gaining traction as growing quickly as a choice for custom
application-specific solutions, including from some emerging MCU and SOC IP developers, there has yet to be a large-scale release of an MCU on
the merchant market in the RISCV ecosystem.Yole anticipates this to emerge steadily over the next five years.
AI – Not just for cars and data centers.
Electrification and Intelligence – Automotive leads market growth for MCUs.
RISCV – Mainly custom for now.
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GENERAL MARKET OVERVIEW
General Market Trends
Hybrid MCUs – Classifying processors is not an exact science. Classifications are not a set of rules by which chip designers are required to
abide.Their intent is to create a product that addresses an unmet need. Usually, it is easier for the market, and prospective clients to understand a
new design if it can be classified by a set of familiar characteristics, but occasionally a designer will go out of their way to resist being classified or
chose to market something as a different class to try to differentiate the product.As a general treatment, this report generally adheres to the
characteristics of the primary core and its associated instruction set architecture to classify a processor.
In that respect, MCU is a classification that most OEMs are familiar with. However, it is becoming increasingly common for MCUs to incorporate
features of other classes of processors.A subset of MCUs replace DSPs, SoCs or small embedded MPUs.They do this by integrating more
advanced features in the instruction sets, design higher performing cores, integrate coprocessing elements including application or real-time
microprocessor cores, and other features that make them a hybrid of multiple classes. In this report, we generally adhere to how the designer
markets the processor when it heavily shares characteristics of multiple classes.The quantitative and qualitative trends here have been designed to
provide the reader with the most actionable data available within the MCU competitive landscape.
PerformanceTrends – 32-bit to grow even more dominant. While the balance between high-performance solutions that is holding steady
with low-power MCU strategies holding about 70% market share, there is a strong growth trend in 32-bit class MCUs garnering almost all current
growth, even in ultra-low power solutions.The forecast from Q2 to Q3 brings an increased 32-bit penetration in 2026, up to 66%.
Much of this will be driven by the demand supply imbalance, but foundries will also have to pass on investment in new capacity in the form of price
increases.This will be initiated from the manufacturing segment of the value chain and most of it will be in the next few years.After that point, new
foundry locations and rebalancing could return us to a slightly downward trend again. The increased demand and short supply, as well as increasing
manufacturing costs will be passed on in the form of MCU price increases.
High-reliability & Secure MCU Classes – As high-reliability applications grow, so too is the share of high-reliability class MCU.In contrast, the
market for smartcard and Secure MCU class (application-specific MCUs that store and/or encrypt data and transmissions for the system), is falling
due to the decline in demand for SIM cards. Countering this, there is a trend for secure MCU designers to target embedded secure MCUs.
General Market Forecast Overview
The following section offers a graphical quantitative overview of these general class and market trends. Specific detailed market trends follow.
Hybrid MCUs – Classifying processors is not an exact science.
PerformanceTrends – 32-bit to grow even more dominant.
High-reliability & Secure MCU Classes
General Market Forecast Overview
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OVERALL MARKET SUMMARY
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Overall Annual Rev $(M) USD
High Reliability MCU Multimarket MCU Secure MCU
Overall Quarterly Rev $(M) USD
High Reliability MCU Multimarket MCU Secure MCU
Overall Quarterly Shpmt (M) Units
High Reliability MCU Multimarket MCU Secure MCU
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Overall Annual Shpmt (M) Units
High Reliability MCU Multimarket MCU Secure MCU
Y/Y -X.X% XX.X% XX.X% X.X% X.X% X.X% X.X%
Q/Q X.X% X.X% -X.X% -X.X% -X.X% XX.X% X.X% -X.X% -X.X% X.X% -X.X%
Q/Q XX.X% X.X% -X.X% -X.X% X.X% XX.X% X.X% -XX.X% X.X% X.X% -X.X% Y/Y X.X% X.X% X.X% X.X% X.X% X.X% X.X%
2020 to 2026 CAGR X.X%
2020 to 2026 CAGR X.X%
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Neuromorphic Computing
and Sensing 2021
Processor Quarterly Market
Monitor
Artificial Intelligence Computing
for Automotive 2020
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YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS
Yole Développement
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The Yole Group of Companies, including Yole Développement,
System Plus Consulting, Knowmade and PISEO, are pleased to
provide you a glimpse of our accumulated knowledge.
Feel free to share our data with your own network, within your
presentations, press releases, dedicated articles and more. But
before that, contact our Public Relations department to
make sure you get up-to-date, licensed materials.
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Microcontroller Quarterly Market Monitor Q3 2021 - Sample

  • 1. From Technologies to Markets © 2021 From Technologies to Markets From Technologies to Markets Microcontroller Quarterly Market Monitor Q3 2021 - Secure MCU Feature Edition Computing Service 2021
  • 2. 2 2 2 Tom Hackenberg Tom Hackenberg is a Principal Analyst for Computing and Software in the Semiconductor,Memory and Computing Division at Yole Développement (Yole).Tom is engaged in developing processor market monitors and research into related technology trends. He is currentlyfocused on low and ultralow power.Tom is an industry leading expert with more than a decade’s experience reporting on markets for semiconductor processors.Tom is also well-versed in related technology trends including IoT, heterogeneous processing, chiplets,AI and edge computing. Tom holds a BSECE from the University of Texas at Austin. Email: tom.hackenberg@yole.fr Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 Biographies & contact ABOUTTHE AUTHORS
  • 3. 3 3 3 • MCU market overview 4 o Executive summary 5 o Introduction 9 o Methodology 11 o Definitions and assumptions 12 • Market size and forecasts 18 o Overall market summary 19 o Smartcard & secure MCU (featured discussion) 28 o Other markets 40 • Automotive 40 • Mobility 47 • Consumer 53 • Personal data processing 57 • Enterprise data processing 61 • Telecommunications infrastructure 65 • Defense and aerospace 69 • Medical 73 • Industrial and other 77 • MCU production 82 o Process and wafer production 83 o Foundry MCU Capex 88 o MCU fabrication 90 • Composite of IDM production 91 • Foundry unit production 92 • Foundry wafer production 93 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 TABLE OF CONTENTS • Regional MCU bookings 94 o By MCU class 96 • Design trends 102 o Embedded memory density 103 o Voltage and frequency 107 o Primary function 109 o Technology ecosystem 111 • Competitive landscape 114 o Top 10 rankings 115 o Overall MCU companies 116 o 4/8/16-bit class 117 o 32-bit class 118 o High-reliability class 119 o Multimarket class 120 o Secure MCU class 121 o Top 5 in rankings 122 o By MCU market 122 • MCU designer profiles 132 • Ranked MCU designer profile 133 • Yole Développement related reports 154 • Yole Développement presentation 156
  • 5. 5 5 5 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Welcome to the Premier of Yole Développement’s Microcontroller Monitor, this is the 2021 Q3 Edition. This service is a presentation of the market for microcontrollers comprised of a data rich quantitative Excel database and this qualitative and visual view of that data in the over 150 pages of this report. For your convenience, this page briefly summarizes top level data from the monitor followed by a few graphic overviews to visualize the market. • 2020 – Microcontroller Global Market Revenue: $16.1 billion USD • 2026 – Microcontroller Global Market Revenue: $25.4 billion USD • 2020 to 2026 Revenue CAGR is 7.8% • 2020 – Microcontroller Global Market Shipments: 26.8 billion units • 2026 – Microcontroller Global Market Shipments: 34.9 billion units • 2020 to 2026 Unit Shipment CAGR is 4.5% • 2020 to 2026 Average Selling Price CAGR is 3.2% • 2020 – 4/8/16 bit market share 48%, 32-bit share 52% • 2026 – 4/8/16 bit market share 34%, 32-bit share 66% • 2020 – Top 5 MCU Markets by Revenue Share: Automotive 31%, Industrial & Other 24%, Smartcard 14%, Consumer 12% Personal Data Processing 11% • 2026 – Top 5 MCU Markets by Revenue Share: Automotive 37%, Industrial & Other 27%, Smartcard 11%, Consumer 10% Personal Data Processing 6% • 2020 – Top 5 MCU Designers by Revenue Share: Renesas 19.0%, NXP 18.0%, Infineon 17.5%, STMicroelectronics 14.0% Microchip 13%
  • 6. 6 6 6 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY $0 $5 000 $10 000 $15 000 $20 000 $25 000 $30 000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Overall MCU Market Revenue Forecast $(M) with 2020 to 2026 CAGR of X.X% Total MCU Revenue Prior Edition Comparison - 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Overall MCU Market Shipment Forecast (M) with 2020 to 2026 CAGR of X.X% Total MCU Shipments Prior Edition Comparison
  • 7. 7 7 7 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2020 Bit Class Revenue Share 4/8/16-bit 32-bit 2020 Leading Market Revenue Share Automotive Industrial and Other Smartcard & Secure MCU Consumer Personal Data Processing Other Markets 2026 Bit Class Revenue Share 4/8/16-bit 32-bit 2026 Leading Market Revenue Share Automotive Industrial and Other Smartcard & Secure MCU Consumer Personal Data Processing Other Markets XX% As the MCU market grows from $16.1B in 2020 to $24.2B in 2026, performance design trends align with performance market growth XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
  • 8. 8 8 8 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Company A 19,0% Company B 18,5% Company C 17,5% Company D 13,0% Company E 12,5% Company F 8,5% Company G 2,5% Company H 1,5% Company I 1,5% Company J 1,5% Rest of Market 4,0% Autre 11,0% 2019 Top Ten Overall MCU Rev Share Company A 19,0% Company B 18,0% Company C 17,5% Company E 14,0% Company D 13,0% Company F 7,5% Company G 2,5% Company H 1,5% Company I 1,5% Company J 1,5% Rest of Market 4,0% Autre 11,0% 2020 Top Ten Overall MCU Rev Share In 2020, the $16.1B MCU market is dominated by the top 5 designers which supply over 80% of the MCU Market
  • 9. 9 9 9 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 INTRODUCTION Welcome Introducing the Microcontroller Monitor Tracker from Yole Développement. This is the 2021 Q3 Edition.The goal of this service is to provide a comprehensive supply chain view of the microcontroller (MCU) market by providing the essential data enabling well-informed actionable decisions for all participants in the microcontroller value chain. About this Monitor The scope of this report includes quarterly data from the prior, current and next year forecast. It provides annual data from the prior two years, current year and next five-year forecast for key market metrics including MCU Class,Market, and Applications in terms of Revenue, Shipments and Average Selling Price. It also provides key value chain characteristics including design attributes, list of suppliers, market leaders and shares, leader profiles. It provides manufacturing data and the relationship of MCU process node, manufacturing share, and wafer starts. Before diving into the rich data presented in the accompanying database, please allow us to present some background for your convenience.This introductory section will provide some context of the research and define some of the terms and classifications to better understand the value of the data presented. Following the definitions, there will be a discussion of some of the current key trends in the overall market.Then the report will provide more depth into classes and markets.We’ll delve into the design features.We’ll present the competitive landscape with details on the leading MCU suppliers.We will then round out the monitor report with a discussion of the relationship between the MCU landscape and Integrated Design Manufacturers (IDM) and Foundry services. Featured Content Each edition of the monitor will provide an expanded discussion of one or more markets or trends to provide even greater depth of understanding of MCUs in that scope.This edition features an in-depth look at the Secure MCU Class and the Smartcard and Secure Embedded MCU Market.
  • 10. 10 10 10 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 INTRODUCTION This monitor will provide quarterly updates.With each update, the report will present a featured topic for detailed and in-depth analysis of the important trends in the context of the featured presentation. The prior edition, Q2, of the Microcontroller Monitor featured and in-depth look at the applications in Automotive and Mobility, with highly related market trends. In this edition, Q3, we review the highly evolving trend for Smartcards and Secure MCUs as they evolve from smartphone subscriber identity modules (SIM) to embedded secure MCUs and further integrate into MCUs across all markets. In Q4, the plan is to go more in-depth on the wide variety of Consumer products discussing ‘smart’ products, the strategy of optimizing time-to-market, point-of-sale pricing, brand identification and other Consumer trends. Each Edition will also provide updates that highlight any significant changes that have been made and what assumptions or risks may have led to the update. AnalystAccess Subscribers of this service are encouraged to contact the author with questions or discussions of the data presented in the monitor, requests for upcoming featured topics, or any recommendations on the content or structure of the monitor.
  • 11. 11 11 11 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 METHODOLOGY This Monitor Service is the culmination of over a decade’s research specifically on the microcontroller market. It is an integral part ofYole Développement’s portfolio of highly insightful and technically thorough Semiconductor and Software Division building on the web of semiconductor knowledge.The diagram below shows the quality control standards for production. It is important to also understand that we target between 15 and 30 interviews per quarter to maintain firsthand knowledge with MCU supply chain participants to keep the topics presented fresh and relevant for our subscribers.
  • 12. 12 12 12 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 DEFINITIONS AND TREATMENTS Microcontroller (MCU) – A highly cost, power, and area optimized processor for use in very resource constrained systems. The primary characteristics distinguishing a microcontroller from other processors are: the presence of on-chip memory, the presence of a variety or application specific input/output interconnects, the ability to load a program onto bootable read-only or nonvolatile memory (usually integrated in the MCU) and allow that program to run beginning at power on without the need of an operating system. Microcontrollers are frequently recognizable because their cores are named or labelled as controller cores, having a simpler integrated development environment to program and a more limited instruction set as compared to microprocessors, system-on-chip and more application specific processors and coprocessors.Advanced MCUs can have attributes of higher performing processors such as multiple cores, integrated coprocessing cores and subsystems, but these are rarer and still target highly constrained systems. Besides being very capable of operating in constrained applications, the verifiability and durability of these basic processors can make them more desirable even for applications that have fewer constraints and require more performance. 4/8/16-bit and 32-bit Class – a description of the maximum size of a piece of data that can be transferred or operated on in a clock cycle. It can limit the data coming into or leaving the processor per clock cycle and limit the size of operation that can be worked in a clock cycle. Blocks of data too large may have to be broken down into smaller blocks leading to inefficiencies, so the choices of hardware and software for an application are typically correlated. This means the higher the bit-class the better suited for more complex mathematical equations and larger memory addressing.This greater versatility often comes at the cost of energy, area and price, but the differences in characteristics between these two classes has narrowed substantially in recent years. So far there has been insufficient interest in increasing MCU complexity to 64-bit.
  • 13. 13 13 13 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 DEFINITIONS AND TREATMENTS High-Reliability Class – The high-reliability design class is an affiliation between the characteristics of a specific group of processors and the business line of the processor designer.The characteristics of high-reliability are resistance to errors and breakdowns due to heat, vibration, electromagnetic interference, prolonged use, exposure to radiation and similar strengths. It is usually achieved by careful design, improved packaging, and cherry picking the highest validations from the manufacturing lots. Historically, these processors may have been and may still be referred to as automotive grade, military spec, rad hardened, and various other application related names. It is significant to the MCU Monitor because many MCU designers build costly manufacturing and business line strategies around optimizing these characteristics in order to win lucrative contracts for these pricier application-specific MCUs that also happen to supply long life cycle equipment. Secure MCU Class – At the exact opposite end of the spectrum from High-Reliability is the Secure MCU Class which is also and affiliation between the characteristics of a specific group of processor and the business line of the processor designer. In this case, the Secure MCU Class is targeting s highly disposable device market with very stripped-down versions of an MCU.That is not to say that the MCU is poor quality, but it has a smaller instruction set, small memory footprint, a small count of specific I/O and almost no packaging.The market that uses this highly cost optimized MCU are smartcards including SIM,bankcard, ID cards and even some embedded applications.The companies that participate in this market quite often have very specific manufacturing processes that differ from other classes of MCU just to service this very simple, yet high volume market. It has fewer barriers to entry and is very attractive for startups.The expertise behind the crypto engine that is functionally the application the entire MCU is optimized for, is also being drawn on for more embedded secure elements.This is likely to be a strong migration as the smartcard market wains.
  • 14. 14 14 14 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 DEFINITIONS AND TREATMENTS Multimarket Class –Where the business lines in High-Reliability and Secure MCU Classes have aligned with very application-specific specialized manufacturing strategies.The multimarket class is designed to fit the needs of a wide variety of applications. It includes both general purpose MCUs where the same product may be used across multiple markets and application-specific MCUs where the manufacturing strategy is more common, but the MCU featured characteristics have been optimized to be attractive for specific applications.The majority of MCUs fall in this class. Market –The report is divided into ten vertical markets (defined later). Market is an arbitrary term to collect groups of dissimilar products into smaller, more manageable and actionable groups. Markets are typically chosen by a grouping of end-equipment that share some commonality that influences the entire supply chain. It influences sales outlets, OEM groups, design strategies and even manufacturing.These markets can further be subdivided by applications which is a further refinement of commonality. Class relationship to market – It is unrealistic to try to track every product line and chip produced by specific classes and characteristics, so models are made and validated to best represent the trends characterizing the market. One of those model features is to treat specific applications as mostly targeted by specific MCU Classes such as Automotive Powertrain application as being a market demanding High-Reliability MCUs.The model holds mostly true but there are going to be exceptions where for whatever reason, an equipment manufacturer may choose a design that does not adhere to the model. In the end, the exceptions do not invalidate the points that the data are presenting because the outliers tend to average out. The graphs on the next page are provided as a visual aid to express the common relationship between Classes, Markets and Applications for Microcontrollers with the respective market shares intact. Image Courtesy of Infineon https://infineon.com
  • 15. 15 15 15 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 DEFINITIONS AND TREATMENTS Markets • Automotive – End electronic equipment consisting of vehicles classified as light cars and trucks. Light vehicles include both Automotive markets and fleet vehicles adapted from the same Automotive designs. Other automotive also includes related Automotive markets such as motorcycles and RVs. It excludes heavy vehicles that are considered in mobility, defense and industrial equipment applications. • Mobility – End electronic equipment designed to transport people or goods.These vehicles are larger than the light vehicle class. It includes buses, larger trucks, limousines, maritime transport, commercial and private airplanes and helicopters, trains and tramways.Other mobility includes a loose variety of vehicles for transportation that have not been specifically identified. • Consumer – End electronic equipment designed to be used in residential or personal applications, typically purchased through retail outlets but excluding data processing which are defined in other markets.This category includes, but is not limited to fitness devices, portable Consumer devices, set-top boxes, televisions, home AV and networking, gaming systems, appliances, home automation and other Consumer electronics. • Personal Data Processing – End electronic equipment primarily designed for personal data consumption or personal data creation.This includes smartphones, mobile phones, media tablets, desktop PCs, portable PCs, smart wearable devices and other personal data processing devices. • Smartcard& Secure MCU – End electronic equipment targeting subscriber identity protection.This highly specialized MCU category applies to smartcards,bank cards, smart ID cards, passports,SIM cards, and embedded secure elements for protecting subscriber identity or encrypting the device data. • Enterprise Data Processing – End electronic equipment consisting of devices targeting computing, networking and office data applications in enterprise, cloud and government agency environments. It includes data center and corporate servers, storage, enterprise networking and related data processing equipment.
  • 16. 16 16 16 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 DEFINITIONS AND TREATMENTS Markets • Telecommunications Infrastructure – End electronic equipment designed for the transportation of data and communications between individuals and enterprises. It includes carrier grade wired infrastructure, mobile infrastructure, backhaul and access equipment, customer premises equipment supplied by telecommunications and internet operators such as modems, routers and access points. It excludes general purpose servers, storage and networking, but includes telecommunications devices of a similar design such as gateways, firewalls, universal customer premises equipment (uCPE). • Defense and Aerospace – End electronic equipment designed to be used in national defense or aerospace applications operated by or on behalf of national agencies.This includes multi-system platforms such as ships, aircraft, rockets, and satellites. It includes unmanned vehicles. It includes installations, munitions and other defense platforms. • Medical – End electronic equipment primarily designed for healthcare.This includes imaging, instruments, diagnostics, patient monitoring, Consumer medical, telehealth and other healthcare, hospital or clinical equipment including healthcare research. • Industrial and Other – End electronic equipment targeting manufacturing, production, commercial and retail. It includes building automation, factory automation and robotics, agriculture, automated logistics, motors and drives, power and energy, mining, oil & gas, retail and commercial equipment such as point of sale terminals and digital signage.The other equipment is a general collection of equipment that does not neatly fit in to another category. Sub-markets • Application –Within each of the major markets, there are certain applications that help define the size and trends of the market.The accompanying Excel database quantifies approximately forty applications to help understand how the market volume and forecasts are being quantified.The forecasts for MCUs are based on over a hundred end-equipment forecasts and their design tends grouped in these applications. These equipment forecasts are determined by panels of analysts with expertise in the industry for the purpose of better understanding the driving trends in the semiconductor industry, including that of MCUs.
  • 17. 17 17 17 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 INTRODUCTIONTO MCU CLASS, MARKET & APPLICATION STRUCTURE Graphic Depiction of 2020 MCU Revenue Structures* * See associated Excel database for complete legible list of structures
  • 18. Market size and forecast
  • 19. 19 19 19 Major Market Trends Covid 19 – Pandemic impacts the global economy. As previously stated in Q2, the reader needs to be clear that 2019 through 2021 should not be treated as normal.The presence of the Covid 19 pandemic disrupted all markets including the semiconductor market in varying ways. Demand in medical markets, especially research, rose and is expected to continue rising.The shift to home office work created a boon market for personal data processing and enterprise data processing. While enterprise data processing will continue to rise, personal data processing will likely see negative effects as a natural replacement cycle that was spread out has now been aligned and amplified so the next replacement cycle may take years to amplify again. Since the Q2 edition, consumer buying also seems to be levelling off. Supply chain disruption – Not really an automotive semiconductor shortage.The shortages have various causes, including disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, flaws in just-in-time supply chain strategies and contractual changes. However, the primary cause is attributed to a sudden downward demand swing due to Covid restrictions causing Automotive OEMs to cancel major orders expecting demand to wane during the pandemic, when in fact the opposite occurred. Demand suddenly increased and left OEMs in a bind as the foundry capacity had already been reallocated to SoCs for new computers, home office and Consumer devices which anticipated the rise in demand supporting work at home.At the same time Apple’s M1 release shifted even more capacity from Intel to TSMC where there was already an imbalance forming. Despite these disruptions, most microcontrollers are designed and manufactured by integrated design manufacturing (IDM) suppliers. Many IDMs despite their strategy to increase reliance on cutting edge foundries, were forced to rely more heavily on manufacturing on more classic in-house manufacturing to meet most MCU demand.With premium SoCs for automotive waiting to regain foundry capacity, MCU demand has been hampered by closed factories, fewer models and premium vehicles sitting at the OEM waiting for a delayed SoC or display driver.This disruption, not shortage, should see readjustment in 2022 and newer fabs for high-end capacity coming online by 2026. Since the Q2 edition, the disruption continues but it has become an issue of trying to realign the just-in-time model to account for abnormal behaviors and imbalances causing delays as much as 5 weeks or more. Suppliers indicate it is almost impossible to determine which components may be out of balance each month. Pricing – New pricing growth trends.As a rule, prices drop and new products with more features replace the old products to bolster the average selling price, but typically the highly competitive landscape favored decreasing prices.This cycle has described a stable market for many years.With the supply chain disruption and the generally increasing cost of manufacturing, that trend is reversing. MCU prices are expected to rise over the next five years. Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 GENERAL MARKET OVERVIEW Covid 19 – Pandemic impacts the global economy. Supply chain disruption – Not really an automotive semiconductor shortage. Pricing – New pricing growth trends
  • 20. 20 20 20 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 GENERAL MARKET OVERVIEW Major Market Trends AI – Not just for cars and data centers. AI is moving into a rapid development cycle for high performance processors such as GPUs and neural networking (NN) accelerator coprocessors, but machine learning (ML) is just emerging for MCUs.There are still many in the industry that don’t realize the use cases for ML processed on MCUs.Though MCUs will likely never compete with more powerful processors for ML applications, frameworks such as TinyML are being designed to enable ML in very resource constrained processors.AI extensions are being added to MCU architecture.The market is expected to increasingly apply to low-energy ML applications. Since the Q2 edition, the use of TinyML seems to be accelerating, but the competition from SoCs will remain high. By 2026, it is likely that at least 8% and maybe 10% will apply ML functions. Electrification and Intelligence – Automotive leads market growth for MCUs. Over the last decade there has been an automotive OEM strategy to try to redesign the basic control strategy in automobiles to reduce the number of disparate electronic control units (UCU)s connected by the increasingly overtaxed controller area network (CAN),toward more centralized and CAN-FD (flexible data-rate) or Ethernet connected Domain Controller (DC).The faster networks and DCs have contributed to enabling more advanced imaging and sensor platforms, more advanced driver assistance, improved network security and a greatly improved driver and passenger experience. Recently domain control is shifting more toward zone control which allows for more distributed intelligence and still achieves slightly fewer electronic control units than classic discrete ECUs.The resulting evolution seems to have achieved more intelligent vehicles rather than a reduction in controllers which continues to drive MCU quantity and revenue even more so. More impactful is the strategy of electrification. With an entirely different set of monitoring and control units, as well as energy storage, regeneration, charging and safety, powertrain is evolving an increased demand for MCUs.This is especially true of hybrid electric vehicles which require the controls over both an internal combustion engine and an electric power train. Eventually, electrification may allow for more consolidated control, but for now it is a growth driver. Discussions with OEMs and MCU suppliers since Q2 have indicated electrification is also a growth driver with synergies in cockpit feature upgrades to accentuate the electric vehicle. Power windows, doors, seats, digital displays and other more electronic features are expected to increase in EVs which will also increase demand for MCUs beyond powertrain. RISCV – Mainly custom for now. There is significant interest in the emerging market for RISCV open-source architecture. Many of the MCU suppliers are members of the RISCV Foundation for varying reasons.While RISCV is gaining traction as growing quickly as a choice for custom application-specific solutions, including from some emerging MCU and SOC IP developers, there has yet to be a large-scale release of an MCU on the merchant market in the RISCV ecosystem.Yole anticipates this to emerge steadily over the next five years. AI – Not just for cars and data centers. Electrification and Intelligence – Automotive leads market growth for MCUs. RISCV – Mainly custom for now.
  • 21. 21 21 21 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 GENERAL MARKET OVERVIEW General Market Trends Hybrid MCUs – Classifying processors is not an exact science. Classifications are not a set of rules by which chip designers are required to abide.Their intent is to create a product that addresses an unmet need. Usually, it is easier for the market, and prospective clients to understand a new design if it can be classified by a set of familiar characteristics, but occasionally a designer will go out of their way to resist being classified or chose to market something as a different class to try to differentiate the product.As a general treatment, this report generally adheres to the characteristics of the primary core and its associated instruction set architecture to classify a processor. In that respect, MCU is a classification that most OEMs are familiar with. However, it is becoming increasingly common for MCUs to incorporate features of other classes of processors.A subset of MCUs replace DSPs, SoCs or small embedded MPUs.They do this by integrating more advanced features in the instruction sets, design higher performing cores, integrate coprocessing elements including application or real-time microprocessor cores, and other features that make them a hybrid of multiple classes. In this report, we generally adhere to how the designer markets the processor when it heavily shares characteristics of multiple classes.The quantitative and qualitative trends here have been designed to provide the reader with the most actionable data available within the MCU competitive landscape. PerformanceTrends – 32-bit to grow even more dominant. While the balance between high-performance solutions that is holding steady with low-power MCU strategies holding about 70% market share, there is a strong growth trend in 32-bit class MCUs garnering almost all current growth, even in ultra-low power solutions.The forecast from Q2 to Q3 brings an increased 32-bit penetration in 2026, up to 66%. Much of this will be driven by the demand supply imbalance, but foundries will also have to pass on investment in new capacity in the form of price increases.This will be initiated from the manufacturing segment of the value chain and most of it will be in the next few years.After that point, new foundry locations and rebalancing could return us to a slightly downward trend again. The increased demand and short supply, as well as increasing manufacturing costs will be passed on in the form of MCU price increases. High-reliability & Secure MCU Classes – As high-reliability applications grow, so too is the share of high-reliability class MCU.In contrast, the market for smartcard and Secure MCU class (application-specific MCUs that store and/or encrypt data and transmissions for the system), is falling due to the decline in demand for SIM cards. Countering this, there is a trend for secure MCU designers to target embedded secure MCUs. General Market Forecast Overview The following section offers a graphical quantitative overview of these general class and market trends. Specific detailed market trends follow. Hybrid MCUs – Classifying processors is not an exact science. PerformanceTrends – 32-bit to grow even more dominant. High-reliability & Secure MCU Classes General Market Forecast Overview
  • 22. 22 22 22 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 OVERALL MARKET SUMMARY 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Overall Annual Rev $(M) USD High Reliability MCU Multimarket MCU Secure MCU Overall Quarterly Rev $(M) USD High Reliability MCU Multimarket MCU Secure MCU Overall Quarterly Shpmt (M) Units High Reliability MCU Multimarket MCU Secure MCU 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Overall Annual Shpmt (M) Units High Reliability MCU Multimarket MCU Secure MCU Y/Y -X.X% XX.X% XX.X% X.X% X.X% X.X% X.X% Q/Q X.X% X.X% -X.X% -X.X% -X.X% XX.X% X.X% -X.X% -X.X% X.X% -X.X% Q/Q XX.X% X.X% -X.X% -X.X% X.X% XX.X% X.X% -XX.X% X.X% X.X% -X.X% Y/Y X.X% X.X% X.X% X.X% X.X% X.X% X.X% 2020 to 2026 CAGR X.X% 2020 to 2026 CAGR X.X%
  • 23. 23 Contact our Sales Team for more information 23 Contact our Sales Team for more information 23 Contact our Sales Team for more information Neuromorphic Computing and Sensing 2021 Processor Quarterly Market Monitor Artificial Intelligence Computing for Automotive 2020 Microcontroller Market Monitor Q3 2021 | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021 YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS Yole Développement
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