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Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 1 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 2 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 3 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 4 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 5 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 6 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 7 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 8 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 9 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 10 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 11 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 12 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 13 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 14 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 15 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 16 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 17 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 18 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 19 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 20 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 21 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 22 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 23 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 24 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 25 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 26 Module 2 Causal loop modelling Slide 27
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Module 2 Causal loop modelling

  1. 1. CAUSAL LOOP MODELLING Professor Ockie Bosch Dr Nam Nguyen
  2. 2. Systems Thinking Tools  Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD)  Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN)  Evolutionary Learning Laboratory (ELLab)  Behavior Over Time (BOT)  Systems Archetypes (SA)  Sensitivity Model (Basis of Ecopolicy)  Viable System Model  Stock and Flow Diagrams  Systems Dynamic Models and more… © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  3. 3. Current Issues in the Media  Climate Change  Carbon Emission  Water Shortage  Land Use  Environment  Biodiversity  Energy Crisis  Food Crisis  Economic Growth  Globalisation  Sustainability  Social Dislocation  Poverty  Human Health  Animal Health  Food Safety © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  4. 4.  These different issues can not be regarded as single entities that can be dealt with in isolation from each other  What are the relationships/interactions between these issues/variables? © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen Interconnected?
  5. 5. The Environment Loop © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  6. 6. The Environment Loop © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  7. 7. Population Loop Added © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  8. 8. Agriculture Loop Added © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  9. 9. © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen Biofuel Loop Added
  10. 10. AN INTEGRATED SYSTEMS MODEL Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009) © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  11. 11. Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) provide: ‘… a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of change rather than static snapshots’. Peter Senge (2006) © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen Definition
  12. 12. Basic Elements of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) - Variable (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)  Variable is a condition, state, action, or decision which can influence, and can be influenced by, other conditions, states, actions, etc.  A variable can be quantitative (e.g., number of employees, kilograms of production, business profit, etc.) or it can be qualitative (e.g., values, motivation, reputation, feelings, respect, etc. ). © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  13. 13. Basic Elements of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) - Arrow (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007) • An arrow indicates a causal relationship or change in the state of two variables. Bank balance Interest • S (or +) indicates change in the Same direction. • O (or -) indicates change in the Opposite direction. © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  14. 14. Interest S (+) Bank balance Expenditure O (-) © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  15. 15. How to decide on the sign? Higher Interest Lower Interest Higher Bank balance Higher Expenditure } Lower Savings Higher Savings Lower Expenditure Lower Bank balance } S (or +) O (or -) © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  16. 16. Feedback (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)  Feedback is a process in which outputs from a system affect the inputs  Feedback loops arise when a sequence of interactions form a closed loop:  A-B-C-A: C B A © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  17. 17. Loop Types (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)  Reinforcing Loop (R)  Positive feedback The R-loop represents growing or declining actions  Balancing Loop (B)  Negative feedback (counteracting) The B-loop seeks stability or return to control, or aims for a specific target + - © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  18. 18. Example of a Reinforcing Loop (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007) Interest S Savings Balance S R Virtuous Cycle Time Savings Balance © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  19. 19. “Quality Problem” - A Vicious Cycle (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007) Hiding Errors / Mistakes Incidence of Poor Quality Management Punitive Action R Fear of Blame / Punishment S S S S Quality Time Vicious Cycle © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  20. 20. Example of Balancing Loops Nguyen & Bosch (2013). Using Systems Thinking to Identify Leverage Points for Sustainability. Systems Research & Behavioral Sciences, Vol.30, No.2, pp 104-115. © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  21. 21. Differentiating between a ‘R’ and B’ 1. Using logic or intuition to identify the nature of the loop: growing or declining action (R), counteracting process (B). 2. Tracing the loop variable by variable: start and end with the same verb (R), with the opposite verb (B). 3. Counting the number of ‘O’ (or ‘-’ sign) in the loop: zero or even number (R), odd number (B). © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen (adapted from Maani and Cavana, 2007)
  22. 22. Rules for drawing CLDs (adapted from Sherwood, 2002)  Rule 1: Know your boundaries  Rule 2: Start somewhere interesting  Rule 3: Ask ‘What does this drive?’ & ‘What is this driven by?’  Rule 4: Use nouns, not verbs  Rule 5: Don’t use terms such as ‘increase in’ or ‘decrease in’  Rule 6: Don’t be afraid of unusual items  Rule 7: Do the ‘s’ and ‘o’ as you go along  Rule 8: A good diagram must be recognised as real  Rule 9: Don’t ‘fall in love’ with your diagram  Rule 10: No diagram ever ‘finished’ © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  23. 23. But, this might be too much! A dynamic systems model of the Afghanistan conflict (The New York Times, April 26, 2010, retrieved from http:// www.nytimes.com/2010/04/27/world/27powerpoint.html?_r=1) © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  24. 24. o Services o Infrastructure o Waste******* o Hotels , Restaurants***** o Attraction of CB Island o Access to markets o Investment in agriculture o Information and communication o Misuse of NR****** o Health o New construction o Tourism pollution******* o Agricultural pollution o Available underground water****** o Number of tourists o Other pollution sources o Use of underground water o Tourism revenue******* o NR conservation******* o Livelihood of Commoner o Life expectancy o Governance structures*** o Policies o Poverty******* o Educated population o Lack of Integrated Planning****** o NGOs o People's awareness o Social evils/crime o Cultural values o Population******* o Immigration o GDP per capita o Tourism Development****** Waste Water Poverty Tourism © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen Causal Loop Modeling Step1. Gathering mental models to identify variables for the sustainable development of Cat Ba Island, Vietnam
  25. 25. Step 2: Move variables around until clear themes are appearing Services New construction Infrastructure Hotels , Restaurants Tourism Development Number of tourists Access to market Investment in agriculture Information and communication Tourism revenue Tourism pollution Waste Attraction of CB Island Available underground water Use of underground water NR conservation Biodiversity Livelihood of Commoner Misuse of NR GDP per capita Agriculture revenue Poverty Food safety Health Life expectancy Educated population Population Governance structure Other income Sources Lack of Integrated Planning Immigration NGOs Social evils/crime Policies Student population Cultural values Agricultural pollution People's awareness Other pollution sources © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  26. 26. Step 3: Systemic Structure (of CAT BA Biosphere) after variables have been linked with arrows Attraction of CB island Service quality Number of tourists Biodiversity Tourism pollution Available underground water Use of underground water Waste Tourism revenue Hotels and Restaurants Agriculture pollution Infrastructure Other pollution sources New construction Agriculture revenue Investment in agriculture Access to market Information and communication GDP per capita Livelihood of Commoner Misuse of NR NR conservation Food safety Health Life expectancy Immigration Population Student population Educated population Poverty Cultural values Social issues People’s awareness Tourism development Lack of Integrated planning NGOs Governanc e structure Policies © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  27. 27. PRACTICAL EXERCISE to draw CLDs Develop a CLD around an area of your own interest: 1. For Educational Purposes: You can use Vensim software (Download from: http://vensim.com/download/ (Click on Free Download) 2. In the Think2Impact Package: You can draw links between variables directly on the “Whiteboard” in the section on Developing a Systems Model (Vensim not required) © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
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Causal loop modelling

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