SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 15
Downloaden Sie, um offline zu lesen
BAYESIAN BELIEF 
NETWORK MODELING 
Professor Ockie Bosch 
Dr Nam Nguyen
A Reminder: Where does BBN modeling fit into the 
Evolutionary Learning Laboratory for Managing Complex Issues? 
New Levels of Learning and Performance at Local Level 
1. IDENTIFY ISSUES 
4. IDENTIFY LEVERAGE/ SYSTEMIC 
INTERVENTIONS 
3. DEVELOP OR REFINE SYSTEMS 
MAPS OR MODELS 
7. REFLECTION 
Environmental 
Economic 
Social 
5. INTEGRATED 
SYSTEMIC 
MANAGEMENT 
PLAN 
2. BUILD 
CAPACITY 
6. IMPLEMENT 
STRATEGIES, 
POLICIES 
Stakeholders’ 
Mental Models 
Systems 
Structure 
Patterns & 
Relationships 
Cultural Values 
Pollution 
+ 
Temporary 
immigration 
Empoloyment 
opportunity 
Land required 
for tourism 
Natural 
beauty 
- 
Availability of 
underground water 
+ 
Fresh water 
consumption 
Employment 
opportunity for local 
people 
+ 
+ 
Social 
issues 
Infrastruture 
& facility 
+ 
+ 
Number of 
tourists 
Attractiveness 
of Cat Ba Island 
- 
+ 
- 
Wealth of 
local people 
+ 
+ Waste 
+ 
+ 
+ 
Illegal forest 
- exploitaion 
- 
Total 
population 
Agricultural 
Production 
Living 
cost 
- 
+ 
+ 
- 
+ 
- 
+ 
+ 
- 
Conservation and 
agricultural land 
+ 
- 
B2 
R1 B1 
R3 
R2 
B3 
B4 
B5 
B6 
Student 
population 
Assess to 
education 
+ 
- 
- 
- 
R5 
R4 
Investment 
+ 
+ 
+ 
Resident 
population 
+ 
+ 
BAYESIAN NETWORK MODELS 
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
Why using Bayesian Belief Network Models? 
 Useful for Participatory Systems Analysis 
 Easy to construct for non-modellers - Visual 
 Ideal mechanism for integrating mental models, different types and forms 
of knowledge and data 
 Can link qualitative and quantitative factors in one model 
 They represent complex systems (i.e. link data, information and processes) 
 Quantify uncertainties through the use of probabilities 
 Easily updateable – through adaptive management/learning by doing 
 Determine what to do systemically (not just trial and error) 
 Can rapidly perform diagnostic and sensitivity analysis; Scenario testing 
 Useful for developing strategic and operational plans 
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
What is a Bayesian Network? 
Nodes (Variables) Rain Temp 
Links (Representing causal relationships) 
Growth Representation of 
• Graph theory (structures) 
• Probability theory (strength of relationships 
between variables 
Inputs: 
• Expert opinion (technical / non-technical) 
• Literature findings 
• Monitoring & research data 
• Other models 
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
IMPROVEMENT OF ….. 
Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal 
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
Things You Can Do – Management Interventions 
A 
B 
IMPROVEMENT OF ….. 
Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal 
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
B 
Effects or Outcomes of 
Management 
Interventions 
1 2 3 
A 
IMPROVEMENT OF ….. 
Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal 
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
C D E F 
Other Controlling 
X 
Factors 
Y 
B 
1 2 3 
A 
IMPROVEMENT OF ….. 
Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal 
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
INTEGRATED STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT PLAN 
Other Controlling 
Planning 
X 
Factors 
Y 
What needs to be in place? 
G H I J 
Systemic Interventions; 
Strategies; Activities; 
1 2 3 
Preparation 
A 
IMPROVEMENT OF ….. 
Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal 
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen 
B 
CC DD EE FF 
A B X Y 
Projects; Timing
Probability to improve SDM 
into a world class institution 
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
Probability to improve SDM 
into a world class institution 
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
Quality of Life of Ghana women in agriculture 
Willingness_to_learn 
Yes 
No 
Work_Pressure 
Reduced 
Increased 
48.3 
51.7 
Qual_of_Life_WISSA 
High 
37.9 
Low 
62.1 
Knowledge_Skills 
Improved 
Unchanged 
47.3 
52.7 
Family_Support 
Yes 
No 
36.9 
63.1 
Infrastructure 
Modern 
Poor 
45.8 
54.3 
Gov_Support 
Effective 
Ineffective 
50.0 
50.0 
Produce_Quality 
High 
Poor 
29.9 
70.1 
Market_actors_Linkages 
Strong 
36.0 
Weak 
64.0 
Producer_Groups 
Strong 
Weak 
15.0 
85.0 
Branding 
Yes 
No 
23.9 
76.1 
Market_Access 
Good 
Poor 
36.8 
63.2 
Satisfied_Consumers 
Yes 
33.4 
No 
66.6 
Stable_Markets 
Yes 
No 
37.4 
62.6 
Income 
High 
Low 
32.7 
67.3 
Quality_control 
Effective 
Ineffective 
15.0 
85.0 
Secondary_Jobs 
Available 
Unavailable 
18.0 
82.0 
Produce_Prices 
High 
Low 
28.7 
71.3 
Eco_friendly_Practices 
Yes 
30.0 
No 
70.0 
Toxic_Chemicals_Use 
Reduced 
29.7 
Increased 
70.3 
Rural_hygience 
Clean 
Poor 
25.0 
75.0 
Health 
Good 
Not_good 
26.9 
73.1 
Service_groups 
Effective 
Ineffective 
66.5 
33.5 
Implements 
Available 
Unavailable 
25.3 
74.8 
Prod_efficiency 
High 
Low 
51.5 
48.5 
Input_prices_quality 
Satisfactory 
Unsatisfactory 
30.8 
69.2 
Access_Healthcare 
Yes 
30.9 
No 
69.1 
Healthcare_Services 
Effective 
35.0 
Poor 
65.0 
Training_content_relevance 
Yes 
40.0 
No 
60.0 
Capital 
Available 
Insufficient 
10.0 
90.0 
Qual_Training 
Yes 
No 
39.8 
60.2 
Old_Customs 
Yes 
No 
10.0 
90.0 
70.0 
30.0 
Social_Engagement 
High 
13.0 
Low 
87.0 
Learning_Capacity 
High 
60.0 
Poor 
40.0 
Qual_Trainers 
Good 
Poor 
55.0 
45.0 
Production_Cost 
Reduced 
Expesive 
35.8 
64.2 
Product_Diversification 
Yes 
40.0 
No 
60.0 
Work_sharing 
Yes 
No 
38.7 
61.3 
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen 
- Current situation
Systemic interventions identified 
Willingness_to_learn 
Yes 
No 
Work_Pressure 
Reduced 
Increased 
78.2 
21.8 
Qual_of_Life_WISSA 
High 
75.8 
Low 
24.2 
Knowledge_Skills 
Improved 
Unchanged 
65.7 
34.3 
Family_Support 
Yes 
No 
83.0 
17.0 
Infrastructure 
Modern 
Poor 
90.0 
10.0 
Gov_Support 
Effective 
Ineffective 
100 
0 
Produce_Quality 
High 
Poor 
82.3 
17.7 
Market_actors_Linkages 
Strong 
100 
Weak 
0 
Producer_Groups 
Strong 
Weak 
100 
0 
Branding 
Yes 
No 
65.8 
34.2 
Market_Access 
Good 
Poor 
76.8 
23.2 
Satisfied_Consumers 
Yes 
64.5 
No 
35.5 
Stable_Markets 
Yes 
No 
95.0 
5.00 
Income 
High 
Low 
78.5 
21.5 
Quality_control 
Effective 
Ineffective 
15.0 
85.0 
Secondary_Jobs 
Available 
Unavailable 
100 
0 
Produce_Prices 
High 
Low 
73.4 
26.6 
Eco_friendly_Practices 
Yes 
100 
No 
0 
Toxic_Chemicals_Use 
Reduced 
82.2 
Increased 
17.7 
Rural_hygience 
Clean 
Poor 
25.0 
75.0 
Health 
Good 
Not_good 
63.1 
36.9 
Service_groups 
Effective 
Ineffective 
73.0 
27.0 
Implements 
Available 
Unavailable 
100 
0 
Prod_efficiency 
High 
Low 
87.5 
12.5 
Input_prices_quality 
Satisfactory 
Unsatisfactory 
95.0 
5.00 
Access_Healthcare 
Yes 
67.1 
No 
32.9 
Healthcare_Services 
Effective 
100 
Poor 
0 
Training_content_relevance 
Yes 
40.0 
No 
60.0 
Capital 
Available 
Insufficient 
100 
0 
Qual_Training 
Yes 
No 
56.0 
44.0 
Old_Customs 
Yes 
No 
10.0 
90.0 
100 
0 
Social_Engagement 
High 
100 
Low 
0 
Learning_Capacity 
High 
60.0 
Poor 
40.0 
Qual_Trainers 
Good 
Poor 
100 
0 
Production_Cost 
Reduced 
Expesive 
83.9 
16.1 
Product_Diversification 
Yes 
100 
No 
0 
Work_sharing 
Yes 
No 
78.4 
21.6 
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
How to populate the model 
Demonstration on 
Follow steps on you computers
Live Demonstration with Netica & Hands-on 
I. What can be done to achieve the goal (address the goal)? 
(3 Max. per group) 
II. Why would you take these actions (what will be the 
outcomes that will lead to achieving the goal)? (2-3 Max. 
per action) 
III. What factors could influence the outcomes mentioned 
under point 2? 
IV. What need to be in place for the actions to happen? (2 – 3 
Max. per action) 
© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Andere mochten auch

Bayesian statistics
Bayesian statisticsBayesian statistics
Bayesian statisticsSagar Kamble
 
Cost-Aware Virtual Machine Placement across Distributed Data Centers using Ba...
Cost-Aware Virtual Machine Placement acrossDistributed Data Centers using Ba...Cost-Aware Virtual Machine Placement acrossDistributed Data Centers using Ba...
Cost-Aware Virtual Machine Placement across Distributed Data Centers using Ba...Soodeh Farokhi
 
Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations (SCAI2015)
Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations (SCAI2015)Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations (SCAI2015)
Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations (SCAI2015)AMIDST Toolbox
 
Probabilistic modeling in deep learning
Probabilistic modeling in deep learningProbabilistic modeling in deep learning
Probabilistic modeling in deep learningDenis Dus
 
construction risk factor analysis: BBN Network
construction risk factor analysis: BBN Networkconstruction risk factor analysis: BBN Network
construction risk factor analysis: BBN NetworkShaswati Mohapatra
 
Bayesian Network 을 활용한 예측 분석
Bayesian Network 을 활용한 예측 분석Bayesian Network 을 활용한 예측 분석
Bayesian Network 을 활용한 예측 분석datasciencekorea
 
The Perfume Project - Part 1
The Perfume Project - Part 1The Perfume Project - Part 1
The Perfume Project - Part 1Ankit Jha
 
Building Process Improvement Business Cases Using Bayesian Belief Networks an...
Building Process Improvement Business Cases Using Bayesian Belief Networks an...Building Process Improvement Business Cases Using Bayesian Belief Networks an...
Building Process Improvement Business Cases Using Bayesian Belief Networks an...Ben Linders
 
Controlling Project Performance using PDM - PSQT2005 - Ben Linders
Controlling Project Performance using PDM - PSQT2005 - Ben LindersControlling Project Performance using PDM - PSQT2005 - Ben Linders
Controlling Project Performance using PDM - PSQT2005 - Ben LindersBen Linders
 

Andere mochten auch (10)

Bayesian statistics
Bayesian statisticsBayesian statistics
Bayesian statistics
 
Cost-Aware Virtual Machine Placement across Distributed Data Centers using Ba...
Cost-Aware Virtual Machine Placement acrossDistributed Data Centers using Ba...Cost-Aware Virtual Machine Placement acrossDistributed Data Centers using Ba...
Cost-Aware Virtual Machine Placement across Distributed Data Centers using Ba...
 
Bayes Belief Network
Bayes Belief NetworkBayes Belief Network
Bayes Belief Network
 
Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations (SCAI2015)
Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations (SCAI2015)Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations (SCAI2015)
Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations (SCAI2015)
 
Probabilistic modeling in deep learning
Probabilistic modeling in deep learningProbabilistic modeling in deep learning
Probabilistic modeling in deep learning
 
construction risk factor analysis: BBN Network
construction risk factor analysis: BBN Networkconstruction risk factor analysis: BBN Network
construction risk factor analysis: BBN Network
 
Bayesian Network 을 활용한 예측 분석
Bayesian Network 을 활용한 예측 분석Bayesian Network 을 활용한 예측 분석
Bayesian Network 을 활용한 예측 분석
 
The Perfume Project - Part 1
The Perfume Project - Part 1The Perfume Project - Part 1
The Perfume Project - Part 1
 
Building Process Improvement Business Cases Using Bayesian Belief Networks an...
Building Process Improvement Business Cases Using Bayesian Belief Networks an...Building Process Improvement Business Cases Using Bayesian Belief Networks an...
Building Process Improvement Business Cases Using Bayesian Belief Networks an...
 
Controlling Project Performance using PDM - PSQT2005 - Ben Linders
Controlling Project Performance using PDM - PSQT2005 - Ben LindersControlling Project Performance using PDM - PSQT2005 - Ben Linders
Controlling Project Performance using PDM - PSQT2005 - Ben Linders
 

Ähnlich wie Module 5 Bayesian belief network modelling

Assessing the impact of a global health MOOC/OER
Assessing the impact of a global health MOOC/OER Assessing the impact of a global health MOOC/OER
Assessing the impact of a global health MOOC/OER Sally Parsley
 
Methodology for selection of best practices from the case studies, by Anna La...
Methodology for selection of best practices from the case studies, by Anna La...Methodology for selection of best practices from the case studies, by Anna La...
Methodology for selection of best practices from the case studies, by Anna La...gaihe
 
Creating a Training Program and Learning Culture
Creating a Training Program and Learning CultureCreating a Training Program and Learning Culture
Creating a Training Program and Learning CultureBizLibrary
 
Scoping wkshp_Quality improvement_CELCIS
Scoping wkshp_Quality improvement_CELCISScoping wkshp_Quality improvement_CELCIS
Scoping wkshp_Quality improvement_CELCISIriss
 
Vision and Direction for CETI
Vision and Direction for CETIVision and Direction for CETI
Vision and Direction for CETIHealthXn
 
Ceti LEAD LEAP Presentation 2010
Ceti LEAD LEAP Presentation 2010Ceti LEAD LEAP Presentation 2010
Ceti LEAD LEAP Presentation 2010HealthXn
 
HIMSS Health Leadership Daegu 2010 V2
HIMSS Health Leadership  Daegu 2010 V2HIMSS Health Leadership  Daegu 2010 V2
HIMSS Health Leadership Daegu 2010 V2HealthXn
 
PHE_TRAINING MODULES_FINAL.ppt
PHE_TRAINING MODULES_FINAL.pptPHE_TRAINING MODULES_FINAL.ppt
PHE_TRAINING MODULES_FINAL.pptaisha392812
 
171 muster2014 mc kay
171 muster2014 mc kay171 muster2014 mc kay
171 muster2014 mc kayMuster2014
 
Workshop to Discuss and Select Good Practices, by Indra Dedze, Anna Lasakova ...
Workshop to Discuss and Select Good Practices, by Indra Dedze, Anna Lasakova ...Workshop to Discuss and Select Good Practices, by Indra Dedze, Anna Lasakova ...
Workshop to Discuss and Select Good Practices, by Indra Dedze, Anna Lasakova ...gaihe
 
Quality Improvement Models: PDSA
Quality Improvement Models: PDSAQuality Improvement Models: PDSA
Quality Improvement Models: PDSAljmcneill33
 
Organizational Improvement Plan
Organizational Improvement PlanOrganizational Improvement Plan
Organizational Improvement PlanKimberly Yang
 
Centre for effective services nuala doherty
Centre for effective services   nuala dohertyCentre for effective services   nuala doherty
Centre for effective services nuala dohertyTeenCounselling
 
Reflections on transforming assessment and feedback: complexity and collabora...
Reflections on transforming assessment and feedback: complexity and collabora...Reflections on transforming assessment and feedback: complexity and collabora...
Reflections on transforming assessment and feedback: complexity and collabora...debbieholley1
 
ProdSummit 2017: André Knüppel, C2U Group
ProdSummit 2017: André Knüppel, C2U GroupProdSummit 2017: André Knüppel, C2U Group
ProdSummit 2017: André Knüppel, C2U GroupPetter Johansson
 
Cn presentation english v2pt
Cn presentation english v2ptCn presentation english v2pt
Cn presentation english v2ptLPJemus
 

Ähnlich wie Module 5 Bayesian belief network modelling (20)

Controlling3
Controlling3Controlling3
Controlling3
 
Assessing the impact of a global health MOOC/OER
Assessing the impact of a global health MOOC/OER Assessing the impact of a global health MOOC/OER
Assessing the impact of a global health MOOC/OER
 
Methodology for selection of best practices from the case studies, by Anna La...
Methodology for selection of best practices from the case studies, by Anna La...Methodology for selection of best practices from the case studies, by Anna La...
Methodology for selection of best practices from the case studies, by Anna La...
 
Creating a Training Program and Learning Culture
Creating a Training Program and Learning CultureCreating a Training Program and Learning Culture
Creating a Training Program and Learning Culture
 
Scoping wkshp_Quality improvement_CELCIS
Scoping wkshp_Quality improvement_CELCISScoping wkshp_Quality improvement_CELCIS
Scoping wkshp_Quality improvement_CELCIS
 
Vision and Direction for CETI
Vision and Direction for CETIVision and Direction for CETI
Vision and Direction for CETI
 
Ceti LEAD LEAP Presentation 2010
Ceti LEAD LEAP Presentation 2010Ceti LEAD LEAP Presentation 2010
Ceti LEAD LEAP Presentation 2010
 
HIMSS Health Leadership Daegu 2010 V2
HIMSS Health Leadership  Daegu 2010 V2HIMSS Health Leadership  Daegu 2010 V2
HIMSS Health Leadership Daegu 2010 V2
 
PHE_TRAINING MODULES_FINAL.ppt
PHE_TRAINING MODULES_FINAL.pptPHE_TRAINING MODULES_FINAL.ppt
PHE_TRAINING MODULES_FINAL.ppt
 
171 muster2014 mc kay
171 muster2014 mc kay171 muster2014 mc kay
171 muster2014 mc kay
 
Workshop to Discuss and Select Good Practices, by Indra Dedze, Anna Lasakova ...
Workshop to Discuss and Select Good Practices, by Indra Dedze, Anna Lasakova ...Workshop to Discuss and Select Good Practices, by Indra Dedze, Anna Lasakova ...
Workshop to Discuss and Select Good Practices, by Indra Dedze, Anna Lasakova ...
 
Quality Improvement Models: PDSA
Quality Improvement Models: PDSAQuality Improvement Models: PDSA
Quality Improvement Models: PDSA
 
Organizational Improvement Plan
Organizational Improvement PlanOrganizational Improvement Plan
Organizational Improvement Plan
 
Centre for effective services nuala doherty
Centre for effective services   nuala dohertyCentre for effective services   nuala doherty
Centre for effective services nuala doherty
 
Reflections on transforming assessment and feedback: complexity and collabora...
Reflections on transforming assessment and feedback: complexity and collabora...Reflections on transforming assessment and feedback: complexity and collabora...
Reflections on transforming assessment and feedback: complexity and collabora...
 
Basics of Extension Evaluation (Foundations Course 2019)
Basics of Extension Evaluation (Foundations Course 2019)Basics of Extension Evaluation (Foundations Course 2019)
Basics of Extension Evaluation (Foundations Course 2019)
 
CETI Driver for change
CETI Driver for changeCETI Driver for change
CETI Driver for change
 
ProdSummit 2017: André Knüppel, C2U Group
ProdSummit 2017: André Knüppel, C2U GroupProdSummit 2017: André Knüppel, C2U Group
ProdSummit 2017: André Knüppel, C2U Group
 
Putting Program Evaluation to Work for You
Putting Program Evaluation to Work for YouPutting Program Evaluation to Work for You
Putting Program Evaluation to Work for You
 
Cn presentation english v2pt
Cn presentation english v2ptCn presentation english v2pt
Cn presentation english v2pt
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen

M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptxM-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptxDr. Santhosh Kumar. N
 
Practical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptx
Practical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptxPractical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptx
Practical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptxKatherine Villaluna
 
Philosophy of Education and Educational Philosophy
Philosophy of Education  and Educational PhilosophyPhilosophy of Education  and Educational Philosophy
Philosophy of Education and Educational PhilosophyShuvankar Madhu
 
CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...
CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...
CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...Nguyen Thanh Tu Collection
 
The Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George Wells
The Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George WellsThe Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George Wells
The Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George WellsEugene Lysak
 
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17Celine George
 
UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024
UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024
UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024UKCGE
 
How to Add Existing Field in One2Many Tree View in Odoo 17
How to Add Existing Field in One2Many Tree View in Odoo 17How to Add Existing Field in One2Many Tree View in Odoo 17
How to Add Existing Field in One2Many Tree View in Odoo 17Celine George
 
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptxSandy Millin
 
Quality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICE
Quality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICEQuality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICE
Quality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICESayali Powar
 
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17Celine George
 
DUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRA
DUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRADUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRA
DUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRATanmoy Mishra
 
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptxPatterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptxMYDA ANGELICA SUAN
 
3.21.24 The Origins of Black Power.pptx
3.21.24  The Origins of Black Power.pptx3.21.24  The Origins of Black Power.pptx
3.21.24 The Origins of Black Power.pptxmary850239
 
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptxIn - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptxAditiChauhan701637
 
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.raviapr7
 
How to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 Sales
How to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 SalesHow to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 Sales
How to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 SalesCeline George
 
Human-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming Classes
Human-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming ClassesHuman-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming Classes
Human-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming ClassesMohammad Hassany
 
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptxCAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptxSaurabhParmar42
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptxM-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
 
Practical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptx
Practical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptxPractical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptx
Practical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptx
 
Philosophy of Education and Educational Philosophy
Philosophy of Education  and Educational PhilosophyPhilosophy of Education  and Educational Philosophy
Philosophy of Education and Educational Philosophy
 
CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...
CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...
CHUYÊN ĐỀ DẠY THÊM TIẾNG ANH LỚP 11 - GLOBAL SUCCESS - NĂM HỌC 2023-2024 - HK...
 
The Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George Wells
The Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George WellsThe Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George Wells
The Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George Wells
 
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
 
UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024
UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024
UKCGE Parental Leave Discussion March 2024
 
How to Add Existing Field in One2Many Tree View in Odoo 17
How to Add Existing Field in One2Many Tree View in Odoo 17How to Add Existing Field in One2Many Tree View in Odoo 17
How to Add Existing Field in One2Many Tree View in Odoo 17
 
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
 
Quality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICE
Quality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICEQuality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICE
Quality Assurance_GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICE
 
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
 
DUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRA
DUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRADUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRA
DUST OF SNOW_BY ROBERT FROST_EDITED BY_ TANMOY MISHRA
 
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptxPatterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
 
Personal Resilience in Project Management 2 - TV Edit 1a.pdf
Personal Resilience in Project Management 2 - TV Edit 1a.pdfPersonal Resilience in Project Management 2 - TV Edit 1a.pdf
Personal Resilience in Project Management 2 - TV Edit 1a.pdf
 
3.21.24 The Origins of Black Power.pptx
3.21.24  The Origins of Black Power.pptx3.21.24  The Origins of Black Power.pptx
3.21.24 The Origins of Black Power.pptx
 
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptxIn - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
In - Vivo and In - Vitro Correlation.pptx
 
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
 
How to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 Sales
How to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 SalesHow to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 Sales
How to Manage Cross-Selling in Odoo 17 Sales
 
Human-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming Classes
Human-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming ClassesHuman-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming Classes
Human-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming Classes
 
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptxCAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
 

Module 5 Bayesian belief network modelling

  • 1. BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK MODELING Professor Ockie Bosch Dr Nam Nguyen
  • 2. A Reminder: Where does BBN modeling fit into the Evolutionary Learning Laboratory for Managing Complex Issues? New Levels of Learning and Performance at Local Level 1. IDENTIFY ISSUES 4. IDENTIFY LEVERAGE/ SYSTEMIC INTERVENTIONS 3. DEVELOP OR REFINE SYSTEMS MAPS OR MODELS 7. REFLECTION Environmental Economic Social 5. INTEGRATED SYSTEMIC MANAGEMENT PLAN 2. BUILD CAPACITY 6. IMPLEMENT STRATEGIES, POLICIES Stakeholders’ Mental Models Systems Structure Patterns & Relationships Cultural Values Pollution + Temporary immigration Empoloyment opportunity Land required for tourism Natural beauty - Availability of underground water + Fresh water consumption Employment opportunity for local people + + Social issues Infrastruture & facility + + Number of tourists Attractiveness of Cat Ba Island - + - Wealth of local people + + Waste + + + Illegal forest - exploitaion - Total population Agricultural Production Living cost - + + - + - + + - Conservation and agricultural land + - B2 R1 B1 R3 R2 B3 B4 B5 B6 Student population Assess to education + - - - R5 R4 Investment + + + Resident population + + BAYESIAN NETWORK MODELS © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  • 3. Why using Bayesian Belief Network Models?  Useful for Participatory Systems Analysis  Easy to construct for non-modellers - Visual  Ideal mechanism for integrating mental models, different types and forms of knowledge and data  Can link qualitative and quantitative factors in one model  They represent complex systems (i.e. link data, information and processes)  Quantify uncertainties through the use of probabilities  Easily updateable – through adaptive management/learning by doing  Determine what to do systemically (not just trial and error)  Can rapidly perform diagnostic and sensitivity analysis; Scenario testing  Useful for developing strategic and operational plans © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  • 4. What is a Bayesian Network? Nodes (Variables) Rain Temp Links (Representing causal relationships) Growth Representation of • Graph theory (structures) • Probability theory (strength of relationships between variables Inputs: • Expert opinion (technical / non-technical) • Literature findings • Monitoring & research data • Other models © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  • 5. IMPROVEMENT OF ….. Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  • 6. Things You Can Do – Management Interventions A B IMPROVEMENT OF ….. Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  • 7. B Effects or Outcomes of Management Interventions 1 2 3 A IMPROVEMENT OF ….. Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  • 8. C D E F Other Controlling X Factors Y B 1 2 3 A IMPROVEMENT OF ….. Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  • 9. INTEGRATED STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT PLAN Other Controlling Planning X Factors Y What needs to be in place? G H I J Systemic Interventions; Strategies; Activities; 1 2 3 Preparation A IMPROVEMENT OF ….. Probability that systemic intervention will achieve the goal © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen B CC DD EE FF A B X Y Projects; Timing
  • 10. Probability to improve SDM into a world class institution © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  • 11. Probability to improve SDM into a world class institution © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  • 12. Quality of Life of Ghana women in agriculture Willingness_to_learn Yes No Work_Pressure Reduced Increased 48.3 51.7 Qual_of_Life_WISSA High 37.9 Low 62.1 Knowledge_Skills Improved Unchanged 47.3 52.7 Family_Support Yes No 36.9 63.1 Infrastructure Modern Poor 45.8 54.3 Gov_Support Effective Ineffective 50.0 50.0 Produce_Quality High Poor 29.9 70.1 Market_actors_Linkages Strong 36.0 Weak 64.0 Producer_Groups Strong Weak 15.0 85.0 Branding Yes No 23.9 76.1 Market_Access Good Poor 36.8 63.2 Satisfied_Consumers Yes 33.4 No 66.6 Stable_Markets Yes No 37.4 62.6 Income High Low 32.7 67.3 Quality_control Effective Ineffective 15.0 85.0 Secondary_Jobs Available Unavailable 18.0 82.0 Produce_Prices High Low 28.7 71.3 Eco_friendly_Practices Yes 30.0 No 70.0 Toxic_Chemicals_Use Reduced 29.7 Increased 70.3 Rural_hygience Clean Poor 25.0 75.0 Health Good Not_good 26.9 73.1 Service_groups Effective Ineffective 66.5 33.5 Implements Available Unavailable 25.3 74.8 Prod_efficiency High Low 51.5 48.5 Input_prices_quality Satisfactory Unsatisfactory 30.8 69.2 Access_Healthcare Yes 30.9 No 69.1 Healthcare_Services Effective 35.0 Poor 65.0 Training_content_relevance Yes 40.0 No 60.0 Capital Available Insufficient 10.0 90.0 Qual_Training Yes No 39.8 60.2 Old_Customs Yes No 10.0 90.0 70.0 30.0 Social_Engagement High 13.0 Low 87.0 Learning_Capacity High 60.0 Poor 40.0 Qual_Trainers Good Poor 55.0 45.0 Production_Cost Reduced Expesive 35.8 64.2 Product_Diversification Yes 40.0 No 60.0 Work_sharing Yes No 38.7 61.3 © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen - Current situation
  • 13. Systemic interventions identified Willingness_to_learn Yes No Work_Pressure Reduced Increased 78.2 21.8 Qual_of_Life_WISSA High 75.8 Low 24.2 Knowledge_Skills Improved Unchanged 65.7 34.3 Family_Support Yes No 83.0 17.0 Infrastructure Modern Poor 90.0 10.0 Gov_Support Effective Ineffective 100 0 Produce_Quality High Poor 82.3 17.7 Market_actors_Linkages Strong 100 Weak 0 Producer_Groups Strong Weak 100 0 Branding Yes No 65.8 34.2 Market_Access Good Poor 76.8 23.2 Satisfied_Consumers Yes 64.5 No 35.5 Stable_Markets Yes No 95.0 5.00 Income High Low 78.5 21.5 Quality_control Effective Ineffective 15.0 85.0 Secondary_Jobs Available Unavailable 100 0 Produce_Prices High Low 73.4 26.6 Eco_friendly_Practices Yes 100 No 0 Toxic_Chemicals_Use Reduced 82.2 Increased 17.7 Rural_hygience Clean Poor 25.0 75.0 Health Good Not_good 63.1 36.9 Service_groups Effective Ineffective 73.0 27.0 Implements Available Unavailable 100 0 Prod_efficiency High Low 87.5 12.5 Input_prices_quality Satisfactory Unsatisfactory 95.0 5.00 Access_Healthcare Yes 67.1 No 32.9 Healthcare_Services Effective 100 Poor 0 Training_content_relevance Yes 40.0 No 60.0 Capital Available Insufficient 100 0 Qual_Training Yes No 56.0 44.0 Old_Customs Yes No 10.0 90.0 100 0 Social_Engagement High 100 Low 0 Learning_Capacity High 60.0 Poor 40.0 Qual_Trainers Good Poor 100 0 Production_Cost Reduced Expesive 83.9 16.1 Product_Diversification Yes 100 No 0 Work_sharing Yes No 78.4 21.6 © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen
  • 14. How to populate the model Demonstration on Follow steps on you computers
  • 15. Live Demonstration with Netica & Hands-on I. What can be done to achieve the goal (address the goal)? (3 Max. per group) II. Why would you take these actions (what will be the outcomes that will lead to achieving the goal)? (2-3 Max. per action) III. What factors could influence the outcomes mentioned under point 2? IV. What need to be in place for the actions to happen? (2 – 3 Max. per action) © Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Once the integrated master plan has been created from the outcomes of the bayesian modeling exercises (and/or system dynamic modeling), these strategies/systemic interventions are then implemented; reflected upon at two or three monthly intervals and new issues may arise. These may require further training, changes in the model (or refinements with outcomes) and the cycle continuously repeats itself. THUS, THE LIVING LABORATORY IS A SYSTEMS BASED “METHODOLOGY” TO UNRAVEL COMPLEXITY AND OVER TIME, THROUGH CROSS-SECTORAL COMMUNICATION AND COLLABORATION, FIND WAYS TO ACHIEVE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTS WE ARE DEALING WITH IN A TURBULENT 21ST CENTURY KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY.
  2. Following slides demonstrates the use of Bayesian modeling as a Participatory Systems Analysis tool – over-simplified, but illustrates the steps they go though to develop a model that they can use as a management tool for achieving specific goals (such as addressing the leverage points they have identified)
  3. What will the things you can do lead to that will contribute to achieving the main goal?
  4. What other factors from the outside could affect the outcomes you would expect? (e.g. rain, temperature, against their religion or ethical/moral standards, etc.) This is bringing in those non-quantifiable things that are part of the equation (e.g. in the case of a sustainability goal – adding culture, ethics, politics, etc. to environment, economics and social).
  5. What other factors from the outside could affect the outcomes you would expect? (e.g. rain, temperature, against their religion or ethical/moral standards, etc.) This is bringing in those non-quantifiable things that are part of the equation (e.g. in the case of a sustainability goal – adding culture, ethics, politics, etc. to environment, economics and social).