The document summarizes surveys conducted in Mosul, Iraq between 2014-2015 that show increasing support for Da'esh among residents. Support for Da'esh has risen due to high civilian casualties from the fight against Da'esh and lack of trust in available alternatives. Residents do not trust the Iraqi army, militias, or US-led coalition to improve security and governance. To defeat Da'esh, a new political and communication strategy is needed to address grievances and build trust with local populations.

2. Combatting Da’esh: We Are Losing
the Battle for Hearts and Minds
Munqith M. Dagher
IIACSS, Iraq
Dec. 2015

3. Methodology
• F2F simple random sample in Mosul: 15th June
2014. N=200
• F2F snowballing samples, Mosul and Anbar,
June 2015. N=200
• F2F quota snowballing interviews in Mosul,
Dec. 2015. N=120

4. Nationwide survey 8th June 2014
Introduction
• For the last two years I have argued that ISIL (Da’esh) is a
symptom rather than a disease in itself. My theory to explain the
sudden rise of ISIL in Iraq and the region is based on hundreds of
thousands of face-to-face interviews that have been conducted
over the last decade.
• There have long been “red flags” in the Sunni areas controlled by
Al Qaeda during the years 2006-2009, and later on by ISIL (Da’esh)
from 2014 till now. Deep dissatisfaction with the central
government has long been clear in the Sunni triangle.
• The survey results suggest that Da’esh is now winning the battle
for hearts and minds among people in Mosul, while opinion is
turning against those seeking to extricate Da’esh. Now there is a
spike in support for Da’esh.
• One reason for this uptick in support is the growing cost of
collateral damage in the fight against Da’esh, as opposed to
anything Da’esh itself is doing to improve peoples’ lives.

5. 1. Steady increase in support for Da’esh
Why doesn’t the current strategy work ?

6. Dec. 2015
Thinking about life in general, is it better or worse today than eighteen
months ago?
42%
55%
3%
77%
21%
2%
Worse
Better
Same
June 2015 Dec. 2015
More people say that their current life is better than it was under the Iraqi
central government

7. Dec. 2015
In your opinion, to what extent does Da’esh represent the views and interests
of people like you?
10%
26%
39%
72%
67%
57%
June 2014 June 2015 Dec. 2015
Yes No
Consistent rise in support for Da’esh

8. Dec. 2015
What is your primary preference for the future of Mosul?
39.2
56.7
.8
3.3
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Da'esh maintains control over the city
Da'esh leave Mosul forever
Other
DK/NA
While the majority opposes Da’esh, nearly 40% want them to stay in Mosul

9. 2. Armed campaign players are neither trusted nor effective
Why doesn’t the current strategy work ?

10. Dec. 2015
Why do you want to keep the status quo in the city?
13
16
23
16
34
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
An attack on Mosul would kill too many innocent people.
I do not trust the Kurdish forces.
I do not trust the Iraqi Army.
I do not trust the Americans.
I support the Islamic State’s caliphate.
Distrust of those who would counter Da’esh runs deep

11. Dec. 2015
Some say that there has been a conspiracy by the U.S. government to
support ISIL. What do you think?
Agree
Disagree
41%
50%
60%
37%
Dec. 2015 June 2014
Conspiracy theories on the rise

12. Dec. 2015
What do you view as the biggest threat to your family’s
security at this time?
45.8
37.5
8.3
5.8
2.5
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0
American and coalition air attacks
The security forces of the Islamic State
The Iraqi Army and Shiite militia (Popular Mobilization forces)
Crime
Kurdish forces
U.S. airstrikes and the Iraqi Army perceived as a threat to Mosul
people’s security

13. People in Mosul worry about the U.S. airstrikes June 2015
43%
57%
Agree Oppose
Do you agree with or oppose the U.S. airstrikes ?

14. 13%
15%
83%
76%
Religious Shiite militias
Popular Moblization forces
Concerned Not concerned
High concerns about the role of Iranian-supported Shiite militias
in fighting Da’esh
June 2015

15. 3. People clearly don’t trust current alternatives
Why doesn’t the current strategy work ?

16. Low trust in Iraqi institutions
30%
38%
18%
68%
60%
82%
Iraqi police
Iraqi Army
Iraqi parliament
No confidence Confidence
How confident are you in the following when it comes to improving the situation in Iraq?

17. Dec. 2015
In your opinion, do the following represent the views and interests of people
like you?
26%
30%
38%
72%
68%
59%
Iraqi central government
Current Sunni politicians
Current Mosul politicians
No Yes
People in Mosul don’t trust their politicians

18. Conclusion
The current data confirm that we are losing the
battle for hearts and minds:
• More Mosul citizens support Da’esh than before, though the
majority still rejects them.
• One of the important interpretations of this increase is that
people are not sure about the future and are showing a
clear lack of confidence in the future.
• Iraqi state alternatives for people in Mosul are not
considered trustworthy or qualitatively better than Da’esh.
• Current military strategy does not work and actually helps
Da’esh garner more support.
• A new political and communication strategy needs to be
implemented to win the hearts and minds of people under
control of Da’esh. The Iraqi partners (whether military or
political) must be more reliable and trusted by the people.