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10 key long term trends
in the maritime business
Geneva/ Paris, 1 December 2016, Jan.Hoffmann@UNCTAD.org
► Demand
► Supply
► Markets
► The Future
► Demand
► Supply
► Markets
► The Future
1: Geography of trade
1: Geography of trade
Old Scenario:
Developing countries
exported large volumes of
raw materials and imported
high value (low volume)
manufactured goods
1: Geography of trade
Today’s Scenario:
Developing countries
participate in globalized
production. They also import
raw materials and also export
manufactured goods
2: Maritime trade is part of
globalized production
► More trade in intermediate goods (40%)
► More intra-company trade
► More door-to-door services
► Logistics is part of the production process
World trade by stage of processing
Source: UNCTAD, Key Trends in International Merchandise Trade, 2015
3: Containerization
(Bernhofen et al, 2013)
 Demand
► Supply
► Markets
► The Future
 Demand
► Supply
► Markets
► The Future
8. Insurance services (P&I)
10. Container terminal operators
9. Seafarers
6. Financing
7. Classification
1.
Building
5.
Scrapping
2.
Owning
3.
Registration
4.
Operation
4: Globalized production of
"maritime transport"
Example: “Hoffmann Shipping”:
►Owner: German
►Flag: Antigua and Barbuda
►Freight agent: Netherlands
►Seafarers: Poland
►Crewing agent: Cyprus
►Cargo: Turkey
► to Canada
►Fuel: Spain
►Insurance: United Kingdom
►Shipyard: Portugal
►Captains’ favourite drink:
Ireland
8. Insurance services (P&I)
10. Container terminal operators
9. Seafarers
6. Financing
7. Classification
1.
Building
5.
Scrapping
2.
Owning
3.
Registration
4.
Operation
4: Globalized production of
"maritime transport"
8. Insurance services (P&I)
10. Container terminal operators
9. Seafarers
6. Financing
7. Classification
1.
Building
5.
Scrapping
2.
Owning
3.
Registration
4.
Operation
4: Globalized production of
"maritime transport"
Korea and China
70% of GT
8. Insurance services (P&I)
10. Container terminal operators
9. Seafarers
6. Financing
7. Classification
1.
Building
5.
Scrapping
2.
Owning
3.
Registration
4.
Operation
4: Globalized production of
"maritime transport"
Greece, Japan:
29%
8. Insurance services (P&I)
10. Container terminal operators
9. Seafarers
6. Financing
7. Classification
1.
Building
5.
Scrapping
2.
Owning
3.
Registration
4.
Operation
4: Globalized production of
"maritime transport"
Panama, Liberia,
Marshall Islands:
41%
8. Insurance services (P&I)
10. Container terminal operators
9. Seafarers
6. Financing
7. Classification
1.
Building
5.
Scrapping
2.
Owning
3.
Registration
4.
Operation
(container
ships)
4: Globalized production of
"maritime transport"
Denmark and
Switzerland
30%
8. Insurance services (P&I)
10. Container terminal operators
9. Seafarers
6. Financing
7. Classification
1.
Building
5.
Scrapping
2.
Owning
3.
Registration
4.
Operation
(container
ships)
4: Globalized production of
"maritime transport"
Denmark and
Switzerland
30%
8. Insurance services (P&I)
10. Container terminal operators
9. Seafarers
6. Financing
7. Classification
1.
Building
5.
Scrapping
2.
Owning
3.
Registration
4.
Operation
4: Globalized production of
"maritime transport"
India,
Bangladesh,
China, Pakistan
92%
8. Insurance services (P&I)
10. Container terminal operators
9. Seafarers
6. Financing
7. Classification
1.
Building
5.
Scrapping
2.
Owning
3.
Registration
4.
Operation
4: Globalized production of
"maritime transport"
Financial and
other services:
UK, Scandinavia
8. Insurance services (P&I)
10. Container terminal operators
9. Seafarers
6. Financing
7. Classification
1.
Building
5.
Scrapping
2.
Owning
3.
Registration
4.
Operation
4: Globalized production of
"maritime transport"
Philippines,
Indonesia, …
8. Insurance services (P&I)
10. Container terminal operators
9. Seafarers
6. Financing
7. Classification
1.
Building
5.
Scrapping
2.
Owning
3.
Registration
4.
Operation
4: Globalized production of
"maritime transport"
Hong Kong,
Netherlands,
Singapore, UAE:
~ 30%
UNCTAD Maritime Country Profiles
stats.unctad.org/MARITIME
Greece
India
Liberia
Republic of Korea
Viet Nam
UNCTAD Maritime Country Profiles
stats.unctad.org/MARITIME
8. Insurance services (P&I)
10. Container terminal operators
9. Seafarers
6. Financing
7. Classification
1.
Building
5.
Scrapping
2.
Owning
3.
Registration
4.
Operation
 4: Globalized production of
"maritime transport"
5: Industry consolidation
(the other side of the same coin)
►As countries
specialize…
►Industry
sees a
process of
concentration
6: Global networks
http://www.mscgva.ch/about_us/routes.html
Networking
Out of 162 x 161 pairs of countries:
How many are connected by direct services?
Source: UNCTAD, based on data from Containerization International
10 Key Long Term Trends in the Maritime Business
 Demand
 Supply
► Markets
► The Future
 Demand
 Supply
► Markets
► The Future
7: Liberalized markets
► Less cargo reservation
► Fewer liner conferences (cartels)
► More private sector participation
8: (somewhat) lower freight costs
UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport 2011
Freight costs in % of goods’ value
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Developing Africa 12.3 12.1 10.6
Developing Oceania 11.6 12.0 9.5
Developing America 8.3 8.3 8.2
Developing Asia 8.9 8.4 7.4
Developed economies 7.4 7.3 6.4
1980s 1990s 2000s
9: More volatile freight rates
Today’s container shipping
►Ever larger ships
►Extremely low freight rates
►Idle fleet
Why is this a problem?
►Ever larger ships
►Extremely low freight rates
►Idle fleet
Why is this a problem?
a) Total logistics costs may actually go up
Why is this a problem?
b) It’s a game:
Unless old ships are scrapped, the oversupply
will remain, or rather, increase, as carriers
build new and larger ships
Why is this a problem?
c) Potential oligopolies in small markets
Global fleet deployment (country averages)
►Ever larger ships
►Extremely low freight rates
►Idle fleet
Source:UNCTADReviewofMaritimeTransport2016
basedondatafromLloydsListIntelligenceandCI-Online
 Demand
 Supply
 Markets
► The Future
 Demand
 Supply
 Markets
► The Future
Globalization
 Demand
 Supply
 Markets
► The Future
10: The Future
The future of today is different
Is the growth
sustainable?
Where are we heading?
How much bigger can the ships get?
What will we do with our garbage
Building a new island
… out of garbage
How do we deal with
changing weather patterns?
How do we deal with
changing weather patterns?
How much more can the ports grow?
Will we run out of oil?
Can we beat the pirates?
Will we run out of marine resources?
Will the sea level rise?
What will be the impact
of climate change?
What will be
the questions
of The Future?
10 key long term trends
in maritime supply chains
Geneva / Paris, 1 December 2016, Jan.Hoffmann@UNCTAD.org
 Demand
 Supply
 Markets
 The Future
Questions?
Geneva / Paris, 1 December 2016, Jan.Hoffmann@UNCTAD.org

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10 Key Long Term Trends in the Maritime Business

  • 1. 10 key long term trends in the maritime business Geneva/ Paris, 1 December 2016, Jan.Hoffmann@UNCTAD.org
  • 2. ► Demand ► Supply ► Markets ► The Future
  • 3. ► Demand ► Supply ► Markets ► The Future
  • 5. 1: Geography of trade Old Scenario: Developing countries exported large volumes of raw materials and imported high value (low volume) manufactured goods
  • 6. 1: Geography of trade Today’s Scenario: Developing countries participate in globalized production. They also import raw materials and also export manufactured goods
  • 7. 2: Maritime trade is part of globalized production ► More trade in intermediate goods (40%) ► More intra-company trade ► More door-to-door services ► Logistics is part of the production process
  • 8. World trade by stage of processing Source: UNCTAD, Key Trends in International Merchandise Trade, 2015
  • 10.  Demand ► Supply ► Markets ► The Future
  • 11.  Demand ► Supply ► Markets ► The Future
  • 12. 8. Insurance services (P&I) 10. Container terminal operators 9. Seafarers 6. Financing 7. Classification 1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 4: Globalized production of "maritime transport"
  • 13. Example: “Hoffmann Shipping”: ►Owner: German ►Flag: Antigua and Barbuda ►Freight agent: Netherlands ►Seafarers: Poland ►Crewing agent: Cyprus ►Cargo: Turkey ► to Canada ►Fuel: Spain ►Insurance: United Kingdom ►Shipyard: Portugal ►Captains’ favourite drink: Ireland
  • 14. 8. Insurance services (P&I) 10. Container terminal operators 9. Seafarers 6. Financing 7. Classification 1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 4: Globalized production of "maritime transport"
  • 15. 8. Insurance services (P&I) 10. Container terminal operators 9. Seafarers 6. Financing 7. Classification 1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 4: Globalized production of "maritime transport" Korea and China 70% of GT
  • 16. 8. Insurance services (P&I) 10. Container terminal operators 9. Seafarers 6. Financing 7. Classification 1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 4: Globalized production of "maritime transport" Greece, Japan: 29%
  • 17. 8. Insurance services (P&I) 10. Container terminal operators 9. Seafarers 6. Financing 7. Classification 1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 4: Globalized production of "maritime transport" Panama, Liberia, Marshall Islands: 41%
  • 18. 8. Insurance services (P&I) 10. Container terminal operators 9. Seafarers 6. Financing 7. Classification 1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation (container ships) 4: Globalized production of "maritime transport" Denmark and Switzerland 30%
  • 19. 8. Insurance services (P&I) 10. Container terminal operators 9. Seafarers 6. Financing 7. Classification 1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation (container ships) 4: Globalized production of "maritime transport" Denmark and Switzerland 30%
  • 20. 8. Insurance services (P&I) 10. Container terminal operators 9. Seafarers 6. Financing 7. Classification 1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 4: Globalized production of "maritime transport" India, Bangladesh, China, Pakistan 92%
  • 21. 8. Insurance services (P&I) 10. Container terminal operators 9. Seafarers 6. Financing 7. Classification 1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 4: Globalized production of "maritime transport" Financial and other services: UK, Scandinavia
  • 22. 8. Insurance services (P&I) 10. Container terminal operators 9. Seafarers 6. Financing 7. Classification 1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 4: Globalized production of "maritime transport" Philippines, Indonesia, …
  • 23. 8. Insurance services (P&I) 10. Container terminal operators 9. Seafarers 6. Financing 7. Classification 1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation 4: Globalized production of "maritime transport" Hong Kong, Netherlands, Singapore, UAE: ~ 30%
  • 24. UNCTAD Maritime Country Profiles stats.unctad.org/MARITIME
  • 26. India
  • 30. UNCTAD Maritime Country Profiles stats.unctad.org/MARITIME
  • 31. 8. Insurance services (P&I) 10. Container terminal operators 9. Seafarers 6. Financing 7. Classification 1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation  4: Globalized production of "maritime transport"
  • 32. 5: Industry consolidation (the other side of the same coin) ►As countries specialize… ►Industry sees a process of concentration
  • 34. Networking Out of 162 x 161 pairs of countries: How many are connected by direct services? Source: UNCTAD, based on data from Containerization International
  • 36.  Demand  Supply ► Markets ► The Future
  • 37.  Demand  Supply ► Markets ► The Future
  • 38. 7: Liberalized markets ► Less cargo reservation ► Fewer liner conferences (cartels) ► More private sector participation
  • 39. 8: (somewhat) lower freight costs UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport 2011 Freight costs in % of goods’ value 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Developing Africa 12.3 12.1 10.6 Developing Oceania 11.6 12.0 9.5 Developing America 8.3 8.3 8.2 Developing Asia 8.9 8.4 7.4 Developed economies 7.4 7.3 6.4 1980s 1990s 2000s
  • 40. 9: More volatile freight rates
  • 41. Today’s container shipping ►Ever larger ships ►Extremely low freight rates ►Idle fleet
  • 42. Why is this a problem? ►Ever larger ships ►Extremely low freight rates ►Idle fleet
  • 43. Why is this a problem? a) Total logistics costs may actually go up
  • 44. Why is this a problem? b) It’s a game: Unless old ships are scrapped, the oversupply will remain, or rather, increase, as carriers build new and larger ships
  • 45. Why is this a problem? c) Potential oligopolies in small markets
  • 46. Global fleet deployment (country averages) ►Ever larger ships ►Extremely low freight rates ►Idle fleet Source:UNCTADReviewofMaritimeTransport2016 basedondatafromLloydsListIntelligenceandCI-Online
  • 47.  Demand  Supply  Markets ► The Future
  • 48.  Demand  Supply  Markets ► The Future Globalization
  • 49.  Demand  Supply  Markets ► The Future
  • 50. 10: The Future The future of today is different
  • 52. Where are we heading?
  • 53. How much bigger can the ships get?
  • 54. What will we do with our garbage
  • 55. Building a new island
  • 56. … out of garbage
  • 57. How do we deal with changing weather patterns?
  • 58. How do we deal with changing weather patterns?
  • 59. How much more can the ports grow?
  • 60. Will we run out of oil?
  • 61. Can we beat the pirates?
  • 62. Will we run out of marine resources?
  • 63. Will the sea level rise?
  • 64. What will be the impact of climate change?
  • 65. What will be the questions of The Future?
  • 66. 10 key long term trends in maritime supply chains Geneva / Paris, 1 December 2016, Jan.Hoffmann@UNCTAD.org
  • 67.  Demand  Supply  Markets  The Future Questions? Geneva / Paris, 1 December 2016, Jan.Hoffmann@UNCTAD.org