This document outlines 10 key long term trends in the maritime business:
1) Geography of trade has changed as developing countries now participate more in globalized production and trade manufactured goods.
2) Maritime trade is now part of globalized production chains with more trade in intermediate goods.
3) Containerization has increased efficiency but also consolidation in the industry.
4) Maritime transport industries are highly globalized with different countries specializing in different aspects of shipbuilding, ownership, crewing, and services.
5) The industry has seen concentration as countries specialize but global networks have also expanded.
5. 1: Geography of trade
Old Scenario:
Developing countries
exported large volumes of
raw materials and imported
high value (low volume)
manufactured goods
6. 1: Geography of trade
Today’s Scenario:
Developing countries
participate in globalized
production. They also import
raw materials and also export
manufactured goods
7. 2: Maritime trade is part of
globalized production
► More trade in intermediate goods (40%)
► More intra-company trade
► More door-to-door services
► Logistics is part of the production process
8. World trade by stage of processing
Source: UNCTAD, Key Trends in International Merchandise Trade, 2015
34. Networking
Out of 162 x 161 pairs of countries:
How many are connected by direct services?
Source: UNCTAD, based on data from Containerization International
42. Why is this a problem?
►Ever larger ships
►Extremely low freight rates
►Idle fleet
43. Why is this a problem?
a) Total logistics costs may actually go up
44. Why is this a problem?
b) It’s a game:
Unless old ships are scrapped, the oversupply
will remain, or rather, increase, as carriers
build new and larger ships
45. Why is this a problem?
c) Potential oligopolies in small markets