2. PREFACE
All praises to ALLAH Almighty who has blessed me with
knowledge to accomplish the task of completing this project. This
project has given us a chance to observe the practical work of an
organization closely and the demanding techniques used by a
company to make Forecasts effectively.. Finally this project has
enhanced my analyzing power and sense of observation.
I am very thankful to our respected course instructor who
had assigned me this valuable project. It is her worthy kindness
that I am at this level of knowledge.
Rabiâaa Naushad
BB-A hons
2
4. Business Units:
Their operations are split into seven business units:
1. Britain and Ireland
5. Europe
2. Middle east and Africa
6. Asia
3. North America
7. Pacific.
4. South America
Company overview in Pakistan:
Cadbury Pakistan Ltd. is now Kraft Foods Pakistan Ltd. Cadbury Pakistan Limited, one of the
best leading confectionery companies in Pakistan, announces its legal entity name change to
Kraft Foods Pakistan Limited. The Company has been renamed in accordance with the global
acquisition of Cadbury by Kraft Foods Inc, Kraft Foods Pakistan Limited is a wholly owned
subsidiary of Kraft Foods. Cadbury Pakistan is a part of worldâs largest confectionary company.
Cadbury has grown consistently. Since its inception in 1993.The company has tripled the size in
past few years. Cadbury has currently a manufacturing plant in Hub.
PRODUCT LINE:
1.Cadbury Dairy Milk; Cadbury Dairy Milk Wowie
2.Cadbury Dairy Milk Crackle
3.Cadbury Dairy Milk Roasted Almond
4.Cadbury Dairy Milk Fruit and Nut
5.Cadbury Dairy Milk Shots
6.Cadbury Dairy Milk Silk
Vision Statement;
Cadburyâs set out a vision to achieve âa Cadbury in every pocketâ dream by increasing the
penetration of chocolates.
Mission Statement;
We can easily understand the mission statement by following points like;
Cadburyâs mean quality
This is our promise
Our reputation is build upon quality
Our commitment to continuous improvement
It will ensure that our promise is delivered
4
5. The Brand Purpose:
ï·
Dairy Milk is something that gives its consumers true happiness. How do we know that?
ï·
All of our survey respondents, visitors, friends, and family mentioned that Dairy Milk is a
sweet indulgence, an inexpensive paradise, a stress relief, that takes you away from the
problems and gives you a moment of true happiness.
But what exactly does true happiness mean?
ï·
ï·
From consumption to post consumption, it reminds them of the true meaning of life, the
simple things that make them happy. Because life has many big moments, but Dairy Milk
is for those small moments, the extra special ones that rekindle the inner flame. And it
isnât all surface level. It has the ability to completely change ones mood, to revitalize and
re-energize and to make one nostalgic. This is what Dairy Milk has always been about
and what it should always remain to be.
ï·
So then what led to this true happiness campaign and what were the factors, locally and
internationally that had to be considered while positioning CDM this way?
ï·
Globally Cadbury has always been positioned around âJoyâ; from their Joyville website
to their fun and quirky ads. However, they have focused on different aspects of joy in
differing markets.
5
6. CONSUMERS VIEW:
Customers get sentimental and emotionally attached. We can see that it had really
affected the minds and psychology of consumers E.g.-when the company advertised its
brand by tag lines ââKuch Meetha Ho Jaye " However, the consumers had stopped
purchasing the bars for sometime after the worm controversy.
Segmentation and Targeting:
One notable form of customer segmentation that Cadbury utilitizes is behaviorial segmentation,
which is based on actual customer decision-making processes towards Cadburyâs products. Once
dividing these customers by that base, they target them by providing specific product offerings.
The relevant segments are the following: The Break Segment, Impulse Segment and Take-home
Segment.
ï· Break Segment:This segment describes products which are normally consumed as a
snatched break and often with tea or coffee.
ï·
Impulse Segment:These products are most often purchased on impulse while consumers
are walking buy or shopping for other household goods.
ï·
Take-home Segment: This describes products that are normally purchased in
supermarkets, taken home and consumed at a later stage due to its sheer quantity.
AWARDS OF CADBURY INDUSTRY WISE:
Over the years, Cadbury World has won a number of industry-recognised awards from its
offers, its services, through to its marketing and advertising campaigns. Recent awards and
nominations include:
2008 (Finalist & Highly Commended) Access for All Category, Excellence in Tourism Awards
2008 (Bronze Winner) âGordonâ Radio Campaign, created by BIG, Cream Awards
2008 (Winner) âYou Canât Eat the Exhibits in a Zooâ print campaign, created by Big, Roses
Award
2008 (Runner Up) Recognition of Disability Facilities, Group Travel Awards
2007 (Finalist) Group Leisure Awards
6
8. Selection of product:
From above of these products I select the Cadbury dairy Milk chocolate which is the one of
product of Cadbury. In 2003 Cadburyâs made Dairy milk into super brand, bringing a number of
different products under the name dairy milk branding for example dairy milk with bubbles.
Production of Cadbury Dairy Milk chocolate:
Many of the newer Dairy Milk Varieties are now manufactured in the Republic of Ireland,
France and Poland. Dairy milk Chocolate itself is also manufactured in France and these
products are sold in the U.K and from U.K to all other countries.
Understand the Market place and Customer Needs:
Cadbury dairy milk chocolate understands the new market which is targeted. First it selects the
targeted customers like Kids, Youths and then made products according to their needs.
Cadbury Dairy Milk Chocolate made by company which offers to specific market, specific
customers and also to all type of customers.
Marketplace also selected by Cadbury Dairy Milk according to customer needs and
requirements.
Designing a Customer Driven Marketing Strategy:
Cadbury Dairy Milk Chocolate Design such a strategy which is customer driven. I mean it target
those markets which is profitable for the company. It includes production, product, selling and
marketing concept.
Production concept;
Cadbury Dairy Milk Chocolate is a product which is favorable by customers and affordable by
customers and Cadbury also focused to improve the quality according to customersâ needs and
requirements. And also improve the production and distribution like improve the transportation
chain.
Product concept;
Consumers favor the Cadbury Dairy Milk Chocolate because it offers the quality, distinctive
features, Affordable price and Cadbury company devotes its full time to satisfy the new
consumers and retain the oldest consumers.
Selling concept;
Cadbury D.M.C has good promotional and selling concepts. It promotes through electronic
8
9. media and by advertisement channels.
Marketing concept;
Cadbury D.M.C achieved its organizational goals and objectives because they know customers
requirements like if they want to target school children it made sashes and made small packing
which Childs easily afford. And also targets the specific market like niche markets.
Capturing Value from Customers:
It means how company build strong relationships with customers and provides his customers to
better products as compare to price which he pays against the product. Cadbury D.M.C provides
all the above values and it also explains with the help of the following points.
Future Sales;
Company also focuses to increase its future sales by different ways like Cadbury dairy milk
chocolate have more consumers and they also provide low price and more valuable and highly
affordable products.
Market share;
Market share means Cadbury dairy milk have high market share and it is becoming higher
because it gives more valuable products to consumers.
Market profit;
If Cadbury wants to earn more profit as compare to its competitors then it have to maintain
strong relationships with its competitors by giving less price, good packing and also to make
them loyal customers.
Forecasting a Key Factor:
Forecasting gives Cadbury a prediction of the selling trends of products. To make the forecast,
the trend line must be accurate. That is the reason for why forecasting products for Cadbury is
vital, this relates to stock control because forecasting helps Cadbury to predict
how much stock is needed to produce the required amount of products.
9
10. Problems with forecasts
The accuracy of Cadburys forecast depends on many factors below are
the most common:
- Will the external environment remain the same?
-Will there be significant changes in the economic, technical and social environment? For
example if customers all started to earn more maybe this would change their lifestyle and
encourage them to buy more luxury products and chocolate is a luxury item.
- Will the external environment remain stable?
-Will Cadbury keep the same objectives and follow the same polices?
DEMAND FORECASTING:
A demand forecast is the prediction of what will happen to your company's existing product
sales. Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that
consumers will purchase. Demand forecasting involves techniques including both informal
methods, such as educated guesses, and quantitative methods, such as the use of historical sales
data or current data from test markets. Demand forecasting may be used in
making pricing decisions, in assessing future capacity requirements, or in making decisions on
whether to enter anew market. It would be best to determine the demand forecast using a
multi-functional approach. Estimate of expected demand over a specified future period. Also
called forecast demand. The inputs from sales and marketing, finance, and production should be
considered. The final demand forecast is the consensus of all participating managers. You may
also want to put-up a Sales and Operations Planning group composed of representatives from the
different departments that will be tasked to prepare the demand forecast. Determination of the
demand forecasts is done through the following steps:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Determine the use of the forecast
Select the items to be forecast
Determine the time horizon of the forecast
Select the forecasting model(s)
Gather the data
Make the forecast
Validate and implement results
10
11. DEMAND FO RECASTING O F CADBURY:
Cadbury is the largest confectionery market in the world. It holds second position in the 50
largest confectionery market. Nearly 175 years it survived in the market. But it should keep the
same image in the market. It should keep researching about their SWOT analysis and market
penetration to improve their market.
â Cadburyâs Dream is an exciting new addition to their white chocolate portfolio and marks a
further commitment by cadburyâs to this market. As leaders in the white chocolate market for
adults, we plan to drive further market growth through the introduction of a complete cross
category range. â
Cadburyâs innovation remains one of the key elements to the companyâs success with new
brands. Cadbury keep changing their catering tastes and lifestyles with quality products and the
strong brand values.
Advertising Methods ADOPTED BY CADBURY:
Television
The reason for selecting television is to focus on more customers. Advertising in television is
expensive. But it reaches more customers at a time.
Banners
The banners will be in front of the Retailers shop and near to the hospitals. The shop is the place
where customers engaged to buy products in their routine life. And the hospital were the patients
are visiting on a regular basis
11
12. Promotion
By giving Advertisements, encourage customers to buy a product. People intend to participate in
competition. As a part of new strategy we will announce 10,000 exciting prices by text or online
entry by giving feedback about Cadbury Diet. As well as runner up prizes for the carnival theme.
It motivates the customers to buy more chocolates.
Consumer Behaviour
Decided to make the customers marketing orientated mainly to younger customers by making the
products affordable and appealing to children. Advertise in different ways to reach the product in
the market. Research the type of chocolates that satisfy the customers and their tastes.
Positioning Strategy:
Capability: Ensure world-class quality
Developing world-class skills, processes and way of working will motivate people and it helps to
improve reward winning performance. Customers confirm by Commitments which have been
carefully selected to both improve business and ensure on the wider world.
Marketing Strategy
Having a clear Vision into Action plan helps to read the customers mind by surveying. This
aligns the energies and efforts of teams behind the brands, markets and projects. If these are
carried out successfully then it will help on revenue, margin, and market performance.
Building commercial capabilities and recruiting employees from urban areas for product
distribution. Ghana is the place we are mainly aiming to increase cocoa production.
Delivering preferred products at competitive cost with other competitor which affordable by the
customer and their satisfaction.
Allocating Resource for the New Product Development. i.e., âCadbury Dietâ
Market Leadership Strategy
In the confectionery market Mars, Nestle and Galaxy are the main competitors. Introducing new
brands and promotion to customers and retailers helps to increase sales revenue. Advertisements
in channels and newspaper helps to retain the brand name in the customers mind.
Promotion
By giving Advertisements will encourage customers to buy the product at least for the
competition. As a part of new strategy we will announce 10,000 exciting prices by text or online
entry by giving feedback about Cadbury Diet.
12
14. Demand driving efficiency:
We recognise that it is not enough to just grow faster; we must also be more profitable. We are
now 18 months into the implementation of our VIA, a programme that is intended to increase our
margins from around 10% in 2007 to mid-teens by 2011.
During 2008, we have made good progress with a number of major initiatives that are already
delivering benefits. All of these initiatives involve considerable project management skills and
resources, and we have been able to successfully build on the experiences we gained during the
implementation.
Website / Information Technology :
Cadbury Worldâs new website (launched 2009) is built using the MOSS web builder system.
This allows content to be updated easily and provides simple data around number of visitors
to the site, which pages are the most popular, and what downloads are accessed the most.
The website allows the visitor to select the content they wish to
view, is easy to navigate and gives the visitor the opportunity to
actively participate in the website content by uploading their
pictures and stories of the Cadbury World experience and also
link to peer-to-peer sites including Facebook and Bebo.
14
15. our priorities
Priority
2008 activities
1. Growth
>
>
>
>
Achieved 8% revenue growth in focus brands
Rationalised underperforming products and âtail brandsâ
Drove consumer preferred brands such as Wispa
Gained scale in Turkish route-to-market by combining gum and candy
distribution
2. Efficiency
>
>
>
>
>
Realised SG&A cost savings, improving operating margin by 100 bps
Reduced central costs, improving operating margin by 20 bps
Reconfiguration of the supply chain in the UK and Ireland
Continued the turnaround of underperforming businesses
Divested non-core assets such as Monkhill candy
3. Capabilities
> Strengthened the commercial capabilities of our global category teams
> Invested in Science and Technology to support innovation and quality
> Removed organisational complexity to speed up decision making and in market
execution
> Maintained investments in finding and developing key talent
âFewer, Faster, Bigger, Betterâ
âRelentless focus on cost
& efficiencyâ
âEnsure world-class qualityâ
performance scorecard
Goal
2008 result
Comments
Annual organic revenue
growth of 4â6%
Base business revenues up 7%
For the second successive year, we exceeded the top
end of our goal range.
Total confectionery
share gain
Market share* up 40 bps to 10.5%
Mid-teens trading margin
by 2011
Margins up 180 bps to 11.9%
Strong dividend growth
Dividend growth of 6%
7%
40 bps
11.9%
6%
We delivered good global market share growth and
increased share in the UK by 50 bps.
Strong underlying operating margin progress was
driven by the initiatives within the VIA plan,
principally the early benefits of restructuring and
improvements at our underperforming businesses.
While the increase is in line with our progressive
policy, the pay-out ratio is somewhat ahead of our
medium-term target of 40â50%.
15
17. demand of the dairy milk also increases. But if the price of the competitorâs decrease, the
demand of the dairy milks not much affected by it.(Source: Survey Result)
âąPrice of Complementary Goods:
Cadbury dairy milk is made from the milk, sugar, cocoa bean and cocoa powder.
SUPPLY CHAIN OF CADBURY:
In 'Our Business Principles' Cadbury Schweppes continues: "We believe that good ethics and
good business go together naturally, to produce the best long term results for all our
stakeholders."
The original Cadbury company was heavily influenced by the Quaker values of the Cadbury
family who started the chocolate business over 150 years ago. The Quakers promote justice,
equality and social reform. The legacy of these ideals informs Cadbury Schweppes' culture today
and unites its many businesses around the world who uphold this heritage and act in an ethical
manner.
From the outset, Cadbury treated employees with respect and cared for their welfare. The
company's site at Bournville, near Birmingham, has always been more than just a factory having
extensive amenities such as housing, sports facilities and parks all being part of the original
complex.
17
18. Cadbury use times series method of forecasting:
Cadbury plan their production process by using a time series method asthishelps
Cadbury to accurately produce the needed amount ofchocolate at thecorrect period of
time. A time series showshistorical data that can be used and analysedto
predict futuretrends. Christmas and Easter are peak selling times for all
chocolate manufactures including Cadbury, this isobviously because chocolateproducts
make good gifts for these occasions.Time series analysis does not explain the casual relationship
betweenvariables & how they will be in future also. It simply assumes thatpast behaviourof the
variable will continue in future also. Hence time seriesanalysis tries to find out the factors
which affect the behaviourof thevariable. The changes in the variable over a period of time
are divided into 4components. They are,
1.
2.
3.
4.
TRENDS
SEASONAL VARIATIONS
CYCLICAL VARIATIONS
RANDOM FLUCTUATIONS
Advantages of Demand forecasting:
The data helps Cadbury to reduce wastage and producethe amount ofproducts that customers
would purchase.-The data is reliable if collectedproperly/accurately.-The forecast helps
Cadbury to makeproducts efficiently as it helpsCadbury to set a target of the amount ofproducts
needed; there arealways enough products to supply tocustomers.
Disadvantages of demand forecasting:
18
19. Cadbury need to have a lot of past data in orderfor the time seriesmethod to be used accurately to
predict salesfigures.-If the external environment doesn·t stay stablethen there will beproblems
with the forecast for example if the pricesof the raw materials used to produce Cadbury
productsincreases then the price ofthe product has to increase in order for Cadbury tomake a
profit fromthe product produced. This may affect the customerspurchasing trends.-The data may
be biased or representative.
Business plan of Cadbury from 2008-2011:
19
20. APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT:
Risk Area
Impact
Management
External Risks
Competition with global,
> Competitive strategies based>
regional and local players as
on price or offer resulting in
well as private label
pressure on profits
>
> Industry consolidation creating
large competitors who can
gain market share
>
Market volatility of traded items
particularly commodities and
foreign exchange
Global economic conditions
and impact on customer,
channel and consumer
Poor predictability of costs >
leading to poor profits and
cash realisation
Negative impact on revenue >
and profit
>
>
Continue to improve the effectiveness of
competitor analysis
Support the brands with relevant and
consistent innovation and communication
Attain preferred supplier status with
product offer and superior service
Effective hedging processes at the Group
level as well as transaction hedging at the
local level
Adapt sales and marketing strategies
including innovation to respond to
changing consumer and customer
behaviour
Focus on effective route-to-market and
customer service
Be diligent about costs and efficiencies
P14
P47
P17
P14
P21
P13
Internal Risks
Significant supply chain
> Failure to deliver planned cost savings > Employ strong capital project
reconfiguration as set out by > Reduced customer service levels
management
the VIA strategic plan
> Enhance regional demand
forecasting and network
planning
20
21. Product quality and food
safety
Consumer health concerns, damage to > Maintain strong quality
reputation and loss of revenue
standards and awareness
> Continue to deliver effective
training
> Promote excellence in
manufacturing disciplines
The new organisation â
operating model, control,
capabilities, costs efficiency
Failure to deliver faster decision
> Clarify and communicate the
making, global consistency in business
details of the operating model
processes or planned cost savings
> Place the right people in key
roles and define precise
accountabilities
Growth agenda â price,
innovation, execution
Failure to deliver against planned
growth targets
> Drive towards fewer, faster,
bigger, better innovation
programmes
> Continue focus on effective
price management and
compelling market execution
P30
P20
P20
Strategic Risks
Use of funds â resource
allocation, delivery and
accountability
Ineffective use of investment funds â > Align capital allocation
failure to deliver target cost savings or
process to the current
business benefits
business priorities
> Ensure tight project
governance structures
maintained within new
organisation structure
> Continue to drive for
excellence in project
management
P20
Underperforming markets
Damage to corporate reputation and
shortfall against financial targets
through failure to deliver against
recovery plans in key âturnaroundâ
markets
P10
> Continue to implement
recovery strategies
> Provide adequate funding and
appropriate management
resources to deliver plans
Control Environment
Compliance culture
Inconsistent business processes and > Regular self-assessment and
practices and inability to drive decisions key financial controls
quickly through the business
> Continue to communicate
clear policies
> Deliver high quality training
Business continuity planning
Ineffective or slow response to major
supply chain disruptions leading to
inability to supply customers and
financial loss
Sustainability â
environmental and social
responsibility
Damage to business and reputation
> Maintain momentum in
through failure to deliver on published
delivery of sustainability
targets
targets
> Monitor progress regularly
Health, safety and security of
Harm to employees and damage to
> Regularly monitor compliance
> Regularly review, test and
update business continuity
plans for all critical supply
chain operations
P30
> Ensure continuing adherence
21
22. employees
reputation
to comprehensive health,
safety and security policies
> Continue to deliver effective
training and regularly monitor
policy compliance
Looking Forward:
Cadbury has plans to move from a product brand to a service brand, where it intends to open up
cafes termed âCadbury Cocoa Houseâ. These cafes will be Cadbury branded, traditional English
style cafes where you can expect to enjoy a delicious afternoon tea, along with a range of
Cadbury-themed goods. Cadbury aims to have an edge over rivals such as Starbucks and Pret a
Manger by selling alcohol alongside its more traditional beverages. The first of these delicious
chocolate themed cafes is proposed to be constructed in London.If this service-themes
proposition works out, then Cadbury can hope to go worldwide with the same idea by opening
up stores in Singapore. Seeing the local success of Milo as a chocolate and family brand,
Cadbury would like to attempt becoming the same in the confectionery category.
Non-melting chocolate invented by Cadbury's
Chocolate which does not melt in hot weather has been developed by Cadbury's â but it will not
be sold in Britain because our summers are not warm enough.
Food scientists working at Cadbury's research plant in Bournville, near Birmingham, claim their
new Dairy Milk bars will remain solid even when left in 104F (40C) heat for three hours.
But the company, which was taken over by American food group Kraft two years ago, says it
will only sell the product in warmer countries like India and Brazil because there is "no market"
for it in the UK.
The decision was attacked by critics who accused Kraft of reneging on a promise to provide
"British chocolate for British people" at the time of the controversial takeover.
Robert Halfon, Conservative MP for Harlow, told the Mail on Sunday: "It seems that we do all
the innovating, then they give the best of British to people overseas."
Chocolate taster Angus Kennedy added that there was "no reason" the chocolate could not be
sold in Britain during the summer, particularly considering children's messy tendency to store
sweets in their pockets.
22
23. Conclusion & recommendations:
ï·
Demand forecasting is widely used by business firms to estimate the future demand of
their products & services. Business firmsuse historical or past date to explain future
demand.
ï·
The estimation of future demand helps the business firms toanalysetheir production,
distribution, selling, advertisement &promotional activities & the cost involved in
covering theseactivities.
ï·
Recommendations can be considered by business firms toenhance their performance in
serving its customers the best.
ï·
Customer·s complaints should be welcomed & handledeffectively. A quick response to
customers complaint can bring apositive impact on part of business firms
ï·
Suggestions from customers should be taken intoconsideration.
I can say that Cadbury is a multinational company and its product Cadbury dairy milk chocolate
is a cash cow for the company. It is well established SBU. Cadbury dairy milk is a market leader.
More profitable as compare to other products of the Cadbury.
23