The very first question a customer asks us when we start work is - When will it be done? Traditional methods of answering this question are fraught with errors. The most common errors include heavy reliance on estimates and use of averages to give one deterministic answer. We are all aware that our world is not deterministic and each prediction has a probability of being right and a complementary probability of being wrong. In this session, we will use examples and a simple exercise to demonstrate a much easier method which can help make probabilistic predictions. These predictions can help teams have more informed conversations with their customers about their probability of completing a project on time and around the risk profiles of their projects. The audience will learn how with very little estimation and simple measurements they can better inform and equip teams, managers and customers with information about possible completion dates of the project. We will show how these techniques are actively being used to predict the completion of single items and a set of multiple items in the real world.

2. @Singhpr

3. @Singhpr

4. @Singhpr

5. @Singhpr

6. @Singhpr

7. Total Number of catalogued songs = 107
Total Playtime For 107 songs = 19 hrs, 53 minutes
Average Song Length = 5 mins, 7 Seconds
@Singhpr

8. @Singhpr

9. @Singhpr
13 Minutes

10. @Singhpr

11. "All My Love", 5:53
"Gallows Pole", 4:57
"In My Time of Dying", 11:08
"LA Drone" (instrumental), 0:14
"Stairway to Heaven", 8:02
0:00
1:12
2:24
3:36
4:48
6:00
7:12
8:24
9:36
10:48
12:00
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

12. @Singhpr

13. @Singhpr

14. @Singhpr

15. Average Per Game = 2.3
Number Of Games in a Season = 16
Prediction (2.3 * 16) = 36.8
Game No Touchdowns
1 1
2 1
3 0
4 2
5 2
6 4
7 0
8 3
9 3
10 2
11 2
12 4
13 3
14 1
15 1
16 2
17 4
18 5
19 4
20 2 @Singhpr

16. @Singhpr

18. Game Number Touchdowns
1 1
2 1
3 0
4 2
5 2
6 4
7 0
8 3
9 3
10 2
11 2
12 4
13 3
14 1
15 1
16 2
17 3
18 2
Game Number Touchdowns
19 1
20 2
21 1
22 3
23 4
24 1
25 2
26 3
27 3
28 3
29 4
30 2
31 4
32 1
33 4
34 5
35 4
36 2
@Singhpr

19. I II III IV V VI
I 1 0 3 1 2 4
II 1 3 1 2 3 1
III 0 3 1 1 3 4
IV 2 2 2 3 3 5
V 2 2 3 4 4 4
VI 4 4 2 1 2 2
@Singhpr

20. I II III IV V VI
I 1 0 3 1 2 4
II 1 3 1 2 3 1
III 0 3 1 1 3 4
IV 2 2 2 3 3 5
V 2 2 3 4 4 4
VI 4 4 2 1 2 2
@Singhpr

21. @Singhpr

22. I II III IV V VI
I 1 0 3 1 2 4
II 1 3 1 2 3 1
III 0 3 1 1 3 4
IV 2 2 2 3 3 5
V 2 2 3 4 4 4
VI 4 4 2 1 2 2
@Singhpr
Sim Result
1 3
2 1
3 0
4 4
5 0
6 1
7 5
8 3
9 2
10 2
11 2
12 0
13 1
14 3
15 3
16 4
Total 34

23. I II III IV V VI
I 1 0 3 1 2 4
II 1 3 1 2 3 1
III 0 3 1 1 3 4
IV 2 2 2 3 3 5
V 2 2 3 4 4 4
VI 4 4 2 1 2 2
@Singhpr
Sim Result
1 0
2 4
3 0
4 5
5 0
6 1
7 5
8 3
9 4
10 3
11 2
12 0
13 2
14 3
15 3
16 4
Total 40

24. 0 0 0 2 4 4
12
9
18 17
45 47
63
52
58
72 72
81
71 71
60
66
48
39
26
18 16 17
7
0 1 2 1 1 0 0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56
Touch Downs
95% 50%
70% 10
%

25. I II III IV V VI
I 1 0 3 1 2 4
II 1 3 1 2 3 1
III 0 3 1 1 3 4
IV 2 2 2 3 3 5
V 2 2 3 4 4 4
VI 4 4 2 1 2 2
@Singhpr

26. 0 0 0 2 4 4
12
9
18 17
45 47
63
52
58
72 72
81
71 71
60
66
48
39
26
18 16 17
7
0 1 2 1 1 0 0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56
Touch Downs
95% 50%
70% 10
%

27. @Singhpr

28. @Singhpr

29. @danvacanti – https://www.actionableagile.com

30. If you track nothing else,
track the date that an item
starts and the date that an
item completes
(for all work items)
@Singhpr

31. Communicate your
forecasts in terms of a
range and a
probability
@Singhpr

32. Update your forecasts as
you get more information
And
Favour short term forecasts
over long term forecasts
@Singhpr

33. Most importantly:
The best forecasts
in the world are
useless unless you
take action
@Singhpr

34. @Singhpr

36. @Singhpr