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IoT future shock: Too much
change too fast?
Lee Rainie
Director, Internet, Science, and Technology Research
May 10, 2017
ABA: Science and Technology Law
The Internet of Things and Future Shock: Too Much Change Too Fast?
The IoT rollout
BODIES (CYBORGS)
ME TRACKERS &
DIAGNOSERS
INSTANT INTELLIGENCE ON
OTHERS & STUFF
REMOTE
CONTROLLERS
REMINDERS AND
ARCHIVING
EXTRA BRAIN LOBE & PAIR
OF HANDS
Implantable
s
HOMESHOMES
SMART SYSTEMS
FINDABLE ITEMS
WARNING
SERVICES
ANTICIPATORY &
MEDIA DELIVERY
SURFACES
COMMUNITIES
COMMUNITIES
MORE EFFICIENT &
CHEAPER SERVICES
TRANSPORTATION
& PARKING
POLLUTION
CROWDSOURCED
INTELLIGENCE
ENVIRONMENT
CLIMATE &
POLLUTION
MONITOR EARTH
SYSTEMS
TRACK WILDLIFE &
HABITAT
INFRASTRUCTURE
WARNING SYSTEMS
& WEAR AND TEAR
INDUSTRY
MAINTAIN/REPAIR
SUPPLY CHAIN
CONTROL (RETAIL
ANALYTICS
MONITORING /
MAINTAINING
ASSETS
QUALITY CONTROL
Why this matters
“Earth will don an electric skin” – Neil Gross, 1999
“In the next century, planet Earth will don an electronic
skin. It will use the internet as a scaffold to support
and transmit its sensations. This skin is already
being stitched together. It consists of millions of
embedded electronic measuring devices:
thermostats, pressure gauges, pollution detectors,
cameras, microphones, glucose sensors, EKGs,
electroencephalographs. These will probe and
monitor cities and endangered species, the
atmosphere, our ships, highways and fleets of
trucks, our conversations, our bodies--even our
Estimates: Your mileage may vary
• IDC forecasts that by this year 60% of global manufacturers will use
analytics to sense and analyze data from connected goods/services and
soon yield 15% productivity improvements.
• IHS Economics forecasts IoT market will grow to 75.4 billion connections by
2025.
• Boston Consulting estimates that by 2020, $267 billion will be spent on IoT
technologies, products and services. Uses” predictive maintenance, self-
optimizing production, automated inventory management, remote patient
monitoring, smart meters, distributed generation and storage, fleet
management and demand response.
• General Electric estimates the Industrial IoT has potential to generate
revenues of up to $11.1 trillion on an annual basis by 2025 - $60 trillion will
be invested in next 15 years.
• Cisco says connected-home machine-to-machine connections will triple
Dyn attack via Murai botnet – October 21, 2016
Exploits
Printers
Refrigerators
Web cams
Smart TVs
CCTV
DVRs
IP cameras
Resident gateways
Baby monitors
Light bulbs
+more
Victims
Amazon
Netflix
Target
PayPal
NY Times
Wall Street Journal
Twitter
CNN
Comcast / Verizon
Zillow
+scores more
People’s cybersecurity
experiences and
knowledge
A big problem
41
35
16
15
14
13
6
64
Noticed fraudulent charges on their credit card
Received a notice that personal information had been
compromised
Had their social media account taken over without
permission
Had their email account taken over without permission
Received notice their social security number was compromised
Had a loan or line of credit taken out in their name
Had a tax refund taken out in their name
Any of these
How confident these entities can protect your data?
How people keep track of their passwords
Not best practices
• 41% of online adults have shared the password to one
of their online accounts with a friend or family member.
• 39% say that they use the same (or very similar)
passwords for many of their online accounts.
• 25% admit that they often use passwords that are less
secure than they’d like, because simpler passwords are
easier to remember than more complex ones.
• 28% of smartphone owners do not use screen locks
• 54% use public Wi-Fi networks for sensitive activities
like e-commerce and banking
Knowledge – Tier 1
Knowledge – Tier 2
Incorrect Correct Not sure
Knowledge – Tier 3
Incorrect Correct Not sure
Knowledge – Tier 4
Incorrect Correct Not sure
Demographics
• Broad differences in knowledge by educational
attainment, especially concerning gap between
those who ended education at high school and those
who have college+ degrees
• Modest differences in knowledge by age
• Private browsing
• GPS function
• Multi-factor authentication
• Botnet
• Public Wi-Fi not always safe
Pew Research Center – Imagining the Internet
Center (Elon University)
November 25–January 13, 2014
2,551 respondents
19% research scientist
10% authors, editors, journalists
9% entrepreneurs, biz leader
8% tech developers
8% activists
7% futurists, consultants
2% legislators, lawyers
2% pioneers
What’s ahead
Digital Life in 2025
The Internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less
visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s
lives for good and ill
Bright sides
Theme 1) Information sharing over the Internet will
be effortlessly interwoven into daily life making
us smarter, safer, more efficient. ‘Computication’
involving ‘smart agents’ will be commonplace.
Theme 2) Artificial intelligence, augmented reality,
wearable devices, and big data will make people
more aware of their world and their own behavior
– which will especially aid in health care.
Theme 3) Social and business encounters will be shaped
by virtual reality and telepresence. Interfaces with data
and objects will change and become easier. Speech and
gesture interaction will matter more
Theme 4) The environment and structures themselves will
become ‘intelligent’ and expand our knowledge about
them – plus, enable their own ‘maintenance’ and ‘repairs’
Dark sides
Theme 1) Privacy will be more at risk and
something perhaps only the
privileged will enjoy.
Theme 2) The nature of work will change in
unprecedented ways as robots and artificial
intelligence assume greater roles in job
functions
Theme 3) Dangerous divides between haves
and have-nots may expand, resulting in
resentment and possible violence.
Theme 4) Abuses and abusers will ‘evolve and
scale.’ Human nature isn’t changing. Those pursuing
crime, laziness, bullying, stalking, stupidity,
pornography, and dirty tricks have new capacity to
make life miserable for others.
Theme 5) Humans and their organizations
may not respond quickly enough to
challenges presented by complex networks.
July 1 – August 12, 2016
1,201 respondents
25% research scientist
14% tech developers
10% activists
9% futurists, consultants
8% authors, editors, journalists
7% entrepreneurs, biz leader
2% legislators, lawyers
2% pioneers
New findings – Pew Research Center and Elon
University’s Imagining the Internet Center
As billions more everyday objects are connected in the Internet of
Things they are sending and receiving data that enhances local,
national and global systems as well as individuals’ lives. But such
connectedness also creates exploitable vulnerabilities. As
automobiles, medical devices, smart TVs, manufacturing equipment
and other tools and infrastructure are networked, is it likely that
attacks, hacks, or ransomware concerns in the next decade will cause
significant numbers of people to decide to disconnect, or will the
trend towards greater connectivity of objects and people continue
unabated?
15% “more will disconnect”
85% “connection will continue unabated”
Six themes
1) People crave connection and convenience, and a tech-linked world serves
both goals well
2) Unplugging is nearly impossible now; by 2026 it will be even more
tougher
3) Risk is part of life. The IoT will be accepted despite dangers because most
people believe the worst-case scenario would never happen to them
4) Human ingenuity and risk-mitigation strategies will make the IoT safer
-----
5) Notable numbers will disconnect
6) Whether or not people disconnect, the dangers are real. Security and
privacy issues will be magnified to a great degree by the rapid rise of the
Internet of Things
Fear not

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The Internet of Things and Future Shock: Too Much Change Too Fast?

  • 1. IoT future shock: Too much change too fast? Lee Rainie Director, Internet, Science, and Technology Research May 10, 2017 ABA: Science and Technology Law
  • 4. BODIES (CYBORGS) ME TRACKERS & DIAGNOSERS INSTANT INTELLIGENCE ON OTHERS & STUFF REMOTE CONTROLLERS REMINDERS AND ARCHIVING EXTRA BRAIN LOBE & PAIR OF HANDS Implantable s
  • 6. COMMUNITIES COMMUNITIES MORE EFFICIENT & CHEAPER SERVICES TRANSPORTATION & PARKING POLLUTION CROWDSOURCED INTELLIGENCE
  • 7. ENVIRONMENT CLIMATE & POLLUTION MONITOR EARTH SYSTEMS TRACK WILDLIFE & HABITAT INFRASTRUCTURE WARNING SYSTEMS & WEAR AND TEAR
  • 10. “Earth will don an electric skin” – Neil Gross, 1999 “In the next century, planet Earth will don an electronic skin. It will use the internet as a scaffold to support and transmit its sensations. This skin is already being stitched together. It consists of millions of embedded electronic measuring devices: thermostats, pressure gauges, pollution detectors, cameras, microphones, glucose sensors, EKGs, electroencephalographs. These will probe and monitor cities and endangered species, the atmosphere, our ships, highways and fleets of trucks, our conversations, our bodies--even our
  • 11. Estimates: Your mileage may vary • IDC forecasts that by this year 60% of global manufacturers will use analytics to sense and analyze data from connected goods/services and soon yield 15% productivity improvements. • IHS Economics forecasts IoT market will grow to 75.4 billion connections by 2025. • Boston Consulting estimates that by 2020, $267 billion will be spent on IoT technologies, products and services. Uses” predictive maintenance, self- optimizing production, automated inventory management, remote patient monitoring, smart meters, distributed generation and storage, fleet management and demand response. • General Electric estimates the Industrial IoT has potential to generate revenues of up to $11.1 trillion on an annual basis by 2025 - $60 trillion will be invested in next 15 years. • Cisco says connected-home machine-to-machine connections will triple
  • 12. Dyn attack via Murai botnet – October 21, 2016 Exploits Printers Refrigerators Web cams Smart TVs CCTV DVRs IP cameras Resident gateways Baby monitors Light bulbs +more Victims Amazon Netflix Target PayPal NY Times Wall Street Journal Twitter CNN Comcast / Verizon Zillow +scores more
  • 14. A big problem 41 35 16 15 14 13 6 64 Noticed fraudulent charges on their credit card Received a notice that personal information had been compromised Had their social media account taken over without permission Had their email account taken over without permission Received notice their social security number was compromised Had a loan or line of credit taken out in their name Had a tax refund taken out in their name Any of these
  • 15. How confident these entities can protect your data?
  • 16. How people keep track of their passwords
  • 17. Not best practices • 41% of online adults have shared the password to one of their online accounts with a friend or family member. • 39% say that they use the same (or very similar) passwords for many of their online accounts. • 25% admit that they often use passwords that are less secure than they’d like, because simpler passwords are easier to remember than more complex ones. • 28% of smartphone owners do not use screen locks • 54% use public Wi-Fi networks for sensitive activities like e-commerce and banking
  • 19. Knowledge – Tier 2 Incorrect Correct Not sure
  • 20. Knowledge – Tier 3 Incorrect Correct Not sure
  • 21. Knowledge – Tier 4 Incorrect Correct Not sure
  • 22. Demographics • Broad differences in knowledge by educational attainment, especially concerning gap between those who ended education at high school and those who have college+ degrees • Modest differences in knowledge by age • Private browsing • GPS function • Multi-factor authentication • Botnet • Public Wi-Fi not always safe
  • 23. Pew Research Center – Imagining the Internet Center (Elon University) November 25–January 13, 2014 2,551 respondents 19% research scientist 10% authors, editors, journalists 9% entrepreneurs, biz leader 8% tech developers 8% activists 7% futurists, consultants 2% legislators, lawyers 2% pioneers
  • 25. Digital Life in 2025 The Internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives for good and ill
  • 27. Theme 1) Information sharing over the Internet will be effortlessly interwoven into daily life making us smarter, safer, more efficient. ‘Computication’ involving ‘smart agents’ will be commonplace.
  • 28. Theme 2) Artificial intelligence, augmented reality, wearable devices, and big data will make people more aware of their world and their own behavior – which will especially aid in health care.
  • 29. Theme 3) Social and business encounters will be shaped by virtual reality and telepresence. Interfaces with data and objects will change and become easier. Speech and gesture interaction will matter more
  • 30. Theme 4) The environment and structures themselves will become ‘intelligent’ and expand our knowledge about them – plus, enable their own ‘maintenance’ and ‘repairs’
  • 32. Theme 1) Privacy will be more at risk and something perhaps only the privileged will enjoy.
  • 33. Theme 2) The nature of work will change in unprecedented ways as robots and artificial intelligence assume greater roles in job functions
  • 34. Theme 3) Dangerous divides between haves and have-nots may expand, resulting in resentment and possible violence.
  • 35. Theme 4) Abuses and abusers will ‘evolve and scale.’ Human nature isn’t changing. Those pursuing crime, laziness, bullying, stalking, stupidity, pornography, and dirty tricks have new capacity to make life miserable for others.
  • 36. Theme 5) Humans and their organizations may not respond quickly enough to challenges presented by complex networks.
  • 37. July 1 – August 12, 2016 1,201 respondents 25% research scientist 14% tech developers 10% activists 9% futurists, consultants 8% authors, editors, journalists 7% entrepreneurs, biz leader 2% legislators, lawyers 2% pioneers New findings – Pew Research Center and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center
  • 38. As billions more everyday objects are connected in the Internet of Things they are sending and receiving data that enhances local, national and global systems as well as individuals’ lives. But such connectedness also creates exploitable vulnerabilities. As automobiles, medical devices, smart TVs, manufacturing equipment and other tools and infrastructure are networked, is it likely that attacks, hacks, or ransomware concerns in the next decade will cause significant numbers of people to decide to disconnect, or will the trend towards greater connectivity of objects and people continue unabated? 15% “more will disconnect” 85% “connection will continue unabated”
  • 39. Six themes 1) People crave connection and convenience, and a tech-linked world serves both goals well 2) Unplugging is nearly impossible now; by 2026 it will be even more tougher 3) Risk is part of life. The IoT will be accepted despite dangers because most people believe the worst-case scenario would never happen to them 4) Human ingenuity and risk-mitigation strategies will make the IoT safer ----- 5) Notable numbers will disconnect 6) Whether or not people disconnect, the dangers are real. Security and privacy issues will be magnified to a great degree by the rapid rise of the Internet of Things