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24-7-2014
Protecting The
Netherlands against
flooding in the future
Adaptation to a changing
climate
19-01-2011
Cees van de Guchte, Ad Jeuken,
Nadine Slootjes, Frans Klijn
Deltares
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
2
Climate impacts in NL
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
3
The Delta programme
“to protect our country from high water
and secure its freshwater supply,
for today and the future.”
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
4
Characteristics
• Flood risks
highriver
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
5
Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-
Drechtsteden5 24-7-20145
Characteristics: continuing growth of population
Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-Drechtsteden
20201980
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
6
Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-
Drechtsteden6 24-7-20146
Characteristics: large unembanked areas
Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-Drechtsteden
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
7
High potential damage in case of floods
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
8
Kenmerken
• Protection against flooding with stormsurge barriers and dams
Haringvlietsluizen
Hartelkering
Maeslantkering Hollandsche IJsselkering
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
9
Kenmerken
1:4.000
1:4.000
1:4.000 1:4.000
1:10.000
1:4.000
1:4.000
1:2.000
1:2.000
1:2.000
1:2.000
1:2.000
• Current protection standards (Waterwet)
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
10
Salt intrusion
1894
1921
1947 1958 1965
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
11
Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-
Drechtsteden11 24-7-201411
Safe
Delta
Economy
Unique
nature
Attractive to live
Characteristics
Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-Drechtsteden
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
12
Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-
Drechtsteden12 24-7-201412
Relations between water and regional ambitions
Economy and mobility
Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-Drechtsteden
• Harbour and closing frequency of
storm surge barrier
• Greenports, agriculture and fresh
water supply
• Industry => fresh water supply
• Increase in transport volumes =>
over water?
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
13
Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-
Drechtsteden13 24-7-201413
Scenarios
= Conceivable futures, not
≠ predicted
Deltascenarios:
– National-climate: KMNI 2006
– National-socio-economic: WLO
Regional specification
– harbour
– city
– rural areas
Future changes in climate, economy, population?
Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-Drechtsteden
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
14
Four Delta Scenarios
moderate fast
low
high
Stoom
WarmRust
Vol
climate change
socio-economicdevelopment
Quiet
SteamFull
Warm
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
15
Increase of waterlevels (and risks)
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
161616
Increase number of days closure fresh water
supply
Fresh water
supply at Gouda
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Huidig G G+ W W+
= extreem droog jaar (1:100)
= droog jaar (1:10)
= matig droog jaar (1:5)
= gemiddeld jaar
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Huidig G G+ W W+
= extreem droog jaar (1:100)
= droog jaar (1:10)
= matig droog jaar (1:5)
= gemiddeld jaar
= extreem droog jaar (1:100)
= droog jaar (1:10)
= matig droog jaar (1:5)
= gemiddeld jaar
Number of days of closure of
fresh water supply at Gouda
due to climate change
Current
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
17
year with Veermanscenario2130211020902070205020302010
year with G-scenario2470240023202240216020852010
cm sea level rise1801501209060300
Large dike reinforcements necessary
Energy supply starts to fail due to limiting cooling capacity
Sand nourishment can not keep up with coastal erosion
Maeslant barrier is hampering shipping too much
Exceedance design criterium Maeslant barrier
The inlet Gouda too salt
Nature goals can not be met
Adaptation tipping points
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
Example: delta program for the rivers
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
19
Building strategies for adaptation
• as an answer to avoid negative impacts
• looking for opportunities
• as an alternative for the current (and past) strategy
• start with a broad view on solutions (possible, favourable, preferable)
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
20
Flexible closure
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
21
Robust closure
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
22
Open system
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
23
Open distributary (WWF)
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
24 24 juli 2014
evaluation of alternative strategies
+ meest positieve, - meest negatieve effect
overstromingsrisico
hoekpunt binnend. buitend. zoetwater scheepvaart natuur kosten
verbeterd afsluitbaar
afsluitbaar open zee- en rivierzijde
gesloten zee- en rivierzijde + - -
gesloten zeezijde + +
open - - + -
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
25
Cost benefit analysis
W+/GE (Steam)
W+/RC (Warm)
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
27
timing of decisions and investments:
‘Adaptive delta management’
• design a strategy which is adaptive in itsself and ultimately is able to
meet the goals under a worst-case scenario
• may contain multiple possible pathways starting at one decision at
present
• measures can be accelerated or postponed, different paths can be
chosen depending on:
– the speed and magnitude of change
– other related planned investments / opportunities
• Delta Plan > Delta Decisions 2014
• Delta Act
• Delta Commissioner
• Delta Budget

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Deguchte adaptation in the netherlands

  • 1. 24-7-2014 Protecting The Netherlands against flooding in the future Adaptation to a changing climate 19-01-2011 Cees van de Guchte, Ad Jeuken, Nadine Slootjes, Frans Klijn Deltares
  • 2. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 2 Climate impacts in NL
  • 3. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 3 The Delta programme “to protect our country from high water and secure its freshwater supply, for today and the future.”
  • 4. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 4 Characteristics • Flood risks highriver
  • 5. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 5 Deltaprogramma Rijnmond- Drechtsteden5 24-7-20145 Characteristics: continuing growth of population Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-Drechtsteden 20201980
  • 6. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 6 Deltaprogramma Rijnmond- Drechtsteden6 24-7-20146 Characteristics: large unembanked areas Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-Drechtsteden
  • 7. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 7 High potential damage in case of floods
  • 8. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 8 Kenmerken • Protection against flooding with stormsurge barriers and dams Haringvlietsluizen Hartelkering Maeslantkering Hollandsche IJsselkering
  • 9. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 9 Kenmerken 1:4.000 1:4.000 1:4.000 1:4.000 1:10.000 1:4.000 1:4.000 1:2.000 1:2.000 1:2.000 1:2.000 1:2.000 • Current protection standards (Waterwet)
  • 10. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 10 Salt intrusion 1894 1921 1947 1958 1965
  • 11. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 11 Deltaprogramma Rijnmond- Drechtsteden11 24-7-201411 Safe Delta Economy Unique nature Attractive to live Characteristics Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-Drechtsteden
  • 12. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 12 Deltaprogramma Rijnmond- Drechtsteden12 24-7-201412 Relations between water and regional ambitions Economy and mobility Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-Drechtsteden • Harbour and closing frequency of storm surge barrier • Greenports, agriculture and fresh water supply • Industry => fresh water supply • Increase in transport volumes => over water?
  • 13. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 13 Deltaprogramma Rijnmond- Drechtsteden13 24-7-201413 Scenarios = Conceivable futures, not ≠ predicted Deltascenarios: – National-climate: KMNI 2006 – National-socio-economic: WLO Regional specification – harbour – city – rural areas Future changes in climate, economy, population? Deltaprogramma Rijnmond-Drechtsteden
  • 14. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 14 Four Delta Scenarios moderate fast low high Stoom WarmRust Vol climate change socio-economicdevelopment Quiet SteamFull Warm
  • 15. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 15 Increase of waterlevels (and risks)
  • 16. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 161616 Increase number of days closure fresh water supply Fresh water supply at Gouda 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Huidig G G+ W W+ = extreem droog jaar (1:100) = droog jaar (1:10) = matig droog jaar (1:5) = gemiddeld jaar 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Huidig G G+ W W+ = extreem droog jaar (1:100) = droog jaar (1:10) = matig droog jaar (1:5) = gemiddeld jaar = extreem droog jaar (1:100) = droog jaar (1:10) = matig droog jaar (1:5) = gemiddeld jaar Number of days of closure of fresh water supply at Gouda due to climate change Current
  • 17. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 17 year with Veermanscenario2130211020902070205020302010 year with G-scenario2470240023202240216020852010 cm sea level rise1801501209060300 Large dike reinforcements necessary Energy supply starts to fail due to limiting cooling capacity Sand nourishment can not keep up with coastal erosion Maeslant barrier is hampering shipping too much Exceedance design criterium Maeslant barrier The inlet Gouda too salt Nature goals can not be met Adaptation tipping points
  • 18. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Example: delta program for the rivers
  • 19. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 19 Building strategies for adaptation • as an answer to avoid negative impacts • looking for opportunities • as an alternative for the current (and past) strategy • start with a broad view on solutions (possible, favourable, preferable)
  • 20. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 20 Flexible closure
  • 21. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 21 Robust closure
  • 22. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 22 Open system
  • 23. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 23 Open distributary (WWF)
  • 24. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 24 24 juli 2014 evaluation of alternative strategies + meest positieve, - meest negatieve effect overstromingsrisico hoekpunt binnend. buitend. zoetwater scheepvaart natuur kosten verbeterd afsluitbaar afsluitbaar open zee- en rivierzijde gesloten zee- en rivierzijde + - - gesloten zeezijde + + open - - + -
  • 25. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 25 Cost benefit analysis W+/GE (Steam) W+/RC (Warm)
  • 26. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 27 timing of decisions and investments: ‘Adaptive delta management’ • design a strategy which is adaptive in itsself and ultimately is able to meet the goals under a worst-case scenario • may contain multiple possible pathways starting at one decision at present • measures can be accelerated or postponed, different paths can be chosen depending on: – the speed and magnitude of change – other related planned investments / opportunities • Delta Plan > Delta Decisions 2014 • Delta Act • Delta Commissioner • Delta Budget