Helen Goulden: our future collaborative economy
•Als PPTX, PDF herunterladen•
8 gefällt mir•1,076 views
Helen Goulden, Director of Nesta's Innovation Lab, sets out her vision for the future collaborative economy of the UK. Helen was speaking at Future Shock: http://www.nesta.org.uk/event/future-shock
Empfohlen
Empfohlen
Weitere ähnliche Inhalte
Was ist angesagt?
Was ist angesagt? (20)
Andere mochten auch
Ähnlich wie Helen Goulden: our future collaborative economy
Ähnlich wie Helen Goulden: our future collaborative economy (20)
Mehr von Nesta
Mehr von Nesta (20)
Kürzlich hochgeladen
Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)
Helen Goulden: our future collaborative economy
- 1. Our future Collaborative Economy? Helen Goulden @helengou #futureshock
- 2. Innovations that use digital technologies to enable the sharing, lending, exchanging of skills, resources, money and assets in ways - and at a scale - not possible before
- 3. Our future Collaborative Economy?
- 4. Airbnb
- 6. TRAITS Digital Technologies Trust Distributed Idling Capacity PILLARS Collaborative Consumption Collaborative Production Collaborative Learning Collaborative Finance
- 7. ACTORS Government Cities Corporates Charities People Start-Ups Communities MODELS B2C C2B P2P B2B
- 12. What will the UK collaborative economy look like in 2025?
- 13. Scenario 1: Rise of the micro-entrepreneur More people sell their things and time on collaborative platforms. For those who are unemployed, or underemployed, this constitutes their primary source of income Increased competition amongst micro-entrepreneurs means precarious, piece-work becomes common place.
- 14. Scenario 2: Hyper-productive goods Asset owners enthusiastically take up the collaborative economy, resulting in rapid increase of publicly available goods to rent and share. In certain sectors, such as short-term home-sharing and co-working help mitigate some of the realities of unequal economic development
- 15. Scenario 3: International monopolies A handful of platforms rise to dominate the collaborative economy landscape. Monopoly platforms take a greater proportion of the financial value generated from micro-entrepreneurs and consumers
- 16. Scenario 4: A million local economies Local economies become increasingly self-sufficient and autonomous drawing demand away from national and international markets. This revitalisation of local communities provides a route for people to contribute time, skills and resources to support local priorities as an alternative to contributing taxation.
- 17. Scenario 5: On-demand, convenient, embedded Collaborative platforms are replaced by a collaborative internet of things. Shared goods are embedded with chips to enable easy location and access to needed goods. Infrastructures and supply systems within the collaborative economy become hyper efficient and predictive thanks to rich personal data.
- 18. Scenario 6: Increased sustainability Climate change and resource depletion results in increased scarcity and rising costs for basic goods. Food and energy platforms dominate the collaborative economy. With greater productivity of existing assets and reduced consumption, fewer foreign goods are imported (and domestic goods produced) in the UK
- 19. • What other scenarios might exist in 2025? • Which are the most desirable? • Which are the most probable? • What’s the role of governments, policymakers and regulators?
- 20. Alex Stephany, Just Park
- 22. Discussion
- 23. Back experimentation, generate evidence Harness Britain’s design talent Set smart standards for sharing
- 24. nice & niche massive & mainstream ?
- 25. Thank you @helengou @nesta_uk
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Welcome everyone to this session, where were going to be exploring the collaborative – or sharing - economy. I’m going to explain a little about what it is, just so we’re all on the same page; but the majority of the session will be about scenarios of the future. To stimulate discussion, Nesta has created six possible futures for the UK collaborative economy in 2025, that we’ll be sharing with you and soliciting yours and others responses. We’re joined in the flesh by Patrick Robinson from AirBnB and Alex Stephany from Just Park And will be hearing a couple of pre-recorded pieces from Michel Bauwens and Arun Sundararajan <><> Now depending on your vantage point and what boundaries you choose to draw, what we’re talking about has many different names. its sometimes described as the sharing economy, the gig economy, the access economy, the Mesh and other terms besides. For the purpose of today, we choose the term the Collaborative Economy which we define as:
- For the purpose of today, we choose the term the Collaborative Economy which we define as: For those of you in the room who are engaged in some of the debate, conversations and networks in this space, you’ll be well aware that to say that the Collaborative Economy is very broad is a large understatement. It is not a sector. It is completely cross-cutting, in the same way that ‘digital’ is completely cross-cutting. That fact – that it is as relevant to a local council delivering a ‘meals on wheels’ service, to a multi-national corporation making cars, to a community group wanting to be self-sufficient, to an individual wanting to earn a bit of extra cash, is the key to understanding its potential and its possible power to upend dominant ways of working, living, travelling and consuming. Now, I’m going to be asking you a question in a bit, about where you position it in terms of it’s potential to disrupt.
- Let’s start with a well known example. In August 2008, a couple of guys set up a digital marketplace AirBnB that allowed people to rent out their spare rooms.
- Since 2008 it has become the poster child for the collaborative economy because it has scaled incredibly successfully; Now operating in 190 countries, 34,ooo cities and has served over 20,000,000 guests. Half of those in the last 12 months. And it’s is challenging an industry in an entirely new way- you don’t need to invest in a chain of hotels to quickly snap at the heels of some serious competition. And like many other collaborative economy ventures, including Just Park, AirBnB’s rise has prompted significant head-scratching and problems to city and local governments across the world as to its legality, and how to regulate it, if at all. We’re going to be talking about this much more later in the session; Sitting alongside, and in the wake of the likes of AirBnB, TaskRabbit, Uber, Lyft etc. there is a long, long tail of collaborative economy enterprises starting up all over the country; all over the world. And in terms of access to physical assets, it taken hold most prominently in the accommodation and transport sectors.
- If you want to get somewhere by car, but don’t own one, depending on where you are in the world, you now have a array of options; operating different models ….
- If you look across the piece at these ventures, despite existing in many different verticals and sectors there are some common traits across all collaborative economy platforms.. They exploit digital tech, they require trust, or mechanisms of instilling trust for transactions to take place. They exploit distributed capital, resources and people power. They make use of idling capacity – creating a market for under-utilised skills and assets. And Nesta’s framework has categorised four key pillars of activity Consumption: which incorporates platforms that redistribute, share and sweat assets like rooms, space, equipment, cars, etc Production: where we’re seeing collaborative design platforms, products that are a result of many people’s contributions and distribution and logistics systems that make use of many more providers, to deliver goods Collaborative Learning which includes open courseware, platforms to share skills and knowledge And Collaborative Finance, where we see Peer to Peer lending, Crowdfunding, non-cash economies and complementary currencies, like Echo and Spice timebanks and collaborative insurance and group buying activities.
- There are also a range of different actors. All applying those principles to: council and community services creating sustainable cities like seoul Corporates finding new ways of increasing utilisation of stock and inventory new services that widen the pool of front line provision new supplementary forms of income new businesses, better, more resilient communities. While P2P dominates our attention at present, there are a range of different models. We see a range of models emerging. And it will be interesting to see how peer to peer models dominate in the longer term.
- In research undertaken by Altimeter, it was revealed that there is broad investor commitment to the collaborative economy. A survey of 200 startups showed $2bn of investment flowing in.
- Research undertaken by Crowd Companies has highlighted 77 large corporate brands who are participating in the collaborative economy; primarily in the technology, hospitality, auto, and retail sectors.
- Globally, revenues from the collaborative economy could hit $335 billion by 2025
- Our own research, which in part zoomed in on household and individual behavioiurs, shows around 25% of the UK population have used the internet to participate in the collaborative economy.
- While to date been working quite practically in this space supporting ventures; as ever we have our eye on the future and So we have created six possible futures for the UK collaborative economy in 2025. These scenarios are by no means exhaustive, nor are they exclusive – indeed, many could easily coexist in future. Instead, they seek to shed light on some of the key trends and challenges currently influencing this field. To start the discussion, we asked Tooley Street to review these scenarios and provide initial responses (6 documents – which will be available online). And we’d like to continue that discussion- and invite you all to share your responses, and hopefully then they will serve their purpose in providing food for thought, on what to look out for, but importantly what we can shape, what we want to see.
- More people sell their things and time on collaborative platforms. Already we see a growing number of people making a living participating in a diverse range of collaborative economy platforms. They might be renting out their spare room, being an uber driver, running errands via Task Rabbit etc In this scenario, the collaborative economy destroys the dominant labour market model of the 20th Century. Where we say goodbye to the days of a steady job where an individual works a certain number of hours per week in return for an income and employment rights. Instead, the individual is in the driving seat, offering services at times, place and rates of their own choosing via online platforms. Sites like linked-in, mybuilder.com – other successful collaborative economy platforms who have diversified their offer, develop into sales platforms for individuals operating their own incorporated companies. This could apply to many different kinds of work from cleaners to supply teachers to web programmers, local manufacturers and service companies. This might seem far-fetched but even on current trends research - 4.6m individuals currently trade outside an employee infrastructure - suggests that one in five people will not be employees in the next decade. Collaborative activities will also take up the slack for those who report to be underemployed. As people increasingly work out how to raise incomes through micro-entrepreneurship, we could see that driving changes in household behaviours, driving up household income. Why potentially? Well because it isn’t necessarily an overall positive picture for people undertaking these new kinds of work. We paint micro-entrepreneurship as being empowering; giving people greater control and agency. There is a darker, shadow side to this scenario where the experience of the worker is one of increasingly precarious and unpredictable work, with tasks and jobs being auctioned to the lowest bidder and actually driving down income.
- Scenario 2: hyper-productive goods Asset owners enthusiastically take up the collaborative economy, resulting in rapid increase of publicly available goods to rent and share. Eliminating the need for us to own many common possessions, with individuals instead borrowing leasing, renting, exchanging instead of owning. in this scenario households will use online platforms to monetise everything that is feasible; earning income, reputational value to use in other transactions or online experiences. The ONS Wealth and Assets survey shows that the total value of physical assets held in people’s main homes in the UK is around 850bn. And that tradeable goods in people’s homes could be in the region £500bn. That assumes, of course, there is a market for such things. But assuming the behaviours and incentives are right, and the demand is there – or can be cultivated – we can make a strong assumption based on emerging consumer behaviours, that the propensity to make money from the things we own will grow. Just taking the issue of household accommodation a bit further in this scenario, we know that not every one with a property will want to rent it out; but let’s look at the numbers. We have 1.7 million households currently on the waiting list for local authority housing. And 8 million homes in England have two spare bedrooms, there is scope at least to think about what incentives could be in place to use housing resources more efficiently.
- Scenario 3: International Monopolies A handful of platforms rise to dominate the collaborative economy landscape. Douglas Atkin said recently that in the collaborative economy “there is a decentralisation of wealth and power. That’s why this economy is a better economy.” But is this an inevitable outcome? There are a number of drivers at play here. Firstly, While the sharing economy feels very mixed at the moment, but likely that many smaller ventures struggle to scale and fall away; requiring as they do a critical mass of inventory, users or stock to become genuinely and regularly useful to consumers. Secondly, the desire to earn money continues to drive usage of sharing platforms and this could lead a very small number of very large platforms that we all accept a default, major platform to engage in sharing activities of many different kinds because it’s super convenient, it slickly serves our needs and it’s where everyone is. This concentration of activity on just a few platforms might result in less than favourable terms of engagement for users and participants; and it will be incredibly challenging to work out what constitutes an abuse of market power? In a very mixed by monopolistic environment
- This is where we see a different kind of dynamic. Local economies become increasingly self-sufficient and autonomous drawing demand away from national and international markets. The collaborative economy spurs a revitalisation of local communities providing a route for people to contribute time, skills and resources to support local priorities Alternative currencies and timebank hybrids become a primary means of exchange within local communities. More people have a stake in collaborative economy initiatives due to a rise in community owned assets. The collaborative economy is about making better use of the assets and skills that surround us. No where do we have a more severe burning platform to create efficiencies, and innovate than in the public sector and local servicces. Our own research suggests that members of the public contribute about £34bn annually to support wider public services objectives; through formal and informal volunteering as well as supporting community activities. This is alongside about£10bn donated by people to charities that support or run alongside public services. As many people volunteer regularly around health and social care – as are employed in the NHS and social care combined. In the UK now, we already see the emergence of more timebanks and different kinds of currencies that have the potential to facilitate different kinds of transactions between communities, citizens, local councils to meet local priorities, mobilise more, non-state resources to meet local needs.
- Scenario 5 On Demand, Convenient, Embedded Collaborative platforms are replaced by a collaborative internet of things. where the connectedness of physical objects to networks dramatically increases the operational efficiency of the collaborative economy. At the moment, we’re all the equivalent of telephone switchboard operators; making our own connections; inputting our own requests and calls to access the things we need. We are in many ways the manual connectors of supply and demand; the manual co-ordinators of collaborative logistics and distribution. But as embedded tracking devices become commonplace the productivity of second-hand markets for discrete goods may rise dramatically. Whether this be increasing efficiency in the use of physical assets, tightening the efficiency of the use of transport or households interacting with their homes to reduce all kinds of waste, stripping out inefficiencies The internet of things, combined with the collaborative economy begins to take us into a place where we are concerned with – after decades of attention giving to efficiencies in production – efficiencies in consumption
- In this final scenario, Climate change and resource depletion results in increased scarcity and rising costs for basic goods. We assume an increased political, corporate and public concern with carbon emissions; and regulatory intervention shapes direction and focus of the collaborative economy. With a large focus on food and energy as well as an increase in the re-selling or hiring of goods. That would likely see a reduction in production and import of goods And a drive to extend the life of products with manufacturers or retailing shifting from being product sellers to service providers of all kinds of equipment, clothes and goods. What would John Lewis look like if it made that transition? A dominant and large collaborative economy would also require complex transportation and logistics systems. A tightening focus on carbon emissions would see Government incentives and pressure to tighten and shorten supply chains, Possibly seeing a break on long-distance selling – in this scenario localised food production becoming the norm. Demand for low-carbon transportation systems grows; and we see the rise of hub warehouses to store inventories from hundreds of different local providers from which courier type services make regular hyper-efficient journey’s to deliver to the ‘last mile’.
- 12.35 Final Words Back experimentation. Set up a Lab for the Sharing Economy, providing finance, space for experimentation and the development of useful evidence and research to support the growth of the collaborative economy in the UK. Harness Britain’s design talent. Prmote and reward the the best designs for sharable adaptation of consumer products, from cars to flats to consumer electronics. Set smart standards for sharing. The UK should take the lead in setting standards for interoperability and tracking of sharable goods, building on the British Standards Institutions’ strong global mandate.
- Session drawing to an end… Let’s take a poll on a fairly crude, but revealing question.. When it comes to the Collaborative Economy is this all very interesting; probably a part of the continuing landscape but a bit nic0068e, Or is it genuinely game changing? And that the impact is far-reaching, transformative Show of hands for nice but niche? And Massive and mainstream? Well… remember how you voted and let’s see what happens! Could you join me in thanking Patrick & Alex – Enjoy the rest of Future Shock.