National Volunteering Forum, 14 July 2015 - Jo Casebourne, Institute for Government
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Jo Casebourne from the Institute for Government examines what the new Government means for the voluntary sector.
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National Volunteering Forum, 14 July 2015 - Jo Casebourne, Institute for Government
- 1. The post-election environment Jo Casebourne Programme Director
- 2. A new context? A not dissimilar environment to 2010 But important differences in focus 2 Public service reform Europe and wider world Devolution Purse-strings Priorities People
- 3. A new – but familiar - government 3 323 100 200 300 300 200 100 Conservatives307 LibDem s57 DUP8 SNP6 Labour258 SDLP3 Plaid3 Green1 Alliance1 Independent1 SinnFein5 323 100 200 300 300 200 100 Conservatives331 Green1 LD 8 SNP56 Labour232 DUP8 Plaid3 SDLP3 UKIP1 UUP2 Ind1 SinnFein4 2015 2010 People
- 4. A new – but familiar - Cabinet 4 People
- 5. A familiar cast of permanent secretaries – for now 5 People
- 6. Civil service capacity has fallen People
- 7. Continued – but accelerated – budget reductions (I) 7 Purse-strings
- 8. Continued – but accelerated – budget reductions (II) 8 Purse-strings
- 9. Similar – but more urgent - priorities 9 Priorities Public service reform Europe and wider world Devolution • New commissioning models? • Structural reform? • Digital? • May 2016 referendum • ECHR/ HRA • Nations • Cities and regions
- 11. The UK is highly centralised 11 Structure of general government revenues across levels of government (2000 and 2009) Priorities
- 12. London’s economy dominates UK cities 12 Economic output in capital vs other cities, EU countries (capital = 100) Priorities
- 13. There is higher trust in local decision-makers 13 Who do you trust most to make decisions about how services are provided in your local area? Source: polling by Populus for LGA, n=1000 Priorities
- 14. And other reasons to decentralise… Arguments for: - More responsive, tailored public services - Stimulating local economic growth - Better prospects for joined-up government - Greater accountability to the public through elected local leaders – including directly elected mayors 14 Priorities
- 15. … as well as reasons not to But… - Weak evidence base for economic growth - Easier said than done - Centralised services can deliver economies of scale - Governance, capability and accountability issues remain at the local level (though less for devolved nations) 15 Priorities
- 16. Devolution/decentralisation mean different things to different people 16 Political Administrative Fiscal Economic ‘Types’ of decentralisation Recipients of decentralised authority Individuals Neighbourhoods Professionals Local groups Local government Central Govt Devolved Govt Devolved Govt Devolved government as agent or autonomous Priorities
- 17. The Coalition Government did deliver several changes 17 Devolved nations: - Scotland Act, 2012 - Wales Act, 2015 - Stormont House Agreement, 2014 - Smith Commission Agreement, 2014 English cities and regions: - 2012 Mayors - City Deals, 2012- - ‘Devolution deals’ and the Northern Powerhouse, 2014- Priorities
- 18. And more changes to come (I) 18 Priorities
- 19. More changes to come (II) 19 Conservative manifesto pledges: - “We will devolve far-reaching powers over economic development, transport and social care to large cities which choose to have elected mayors” - “We will legislate to deliver the historic deal for Greater Manchester” - “We will devolve further powers over skills spending and planning to the Mayor of London.” City devolution bill, enabling: - the creation of ‘Metro Mayors’ for Combined Authority areas; - Metro Mayors to take on the functions of PCCs; - greater flexibility on the functions that can be conferred on a combined authority; - new, streamlined local governance models as agreed by councils Priorities
- 20. There are signs decentralisation is being taken seriously 20 The decentralising team Priorities
- 21. PRIORITIES: PUBLIC SERVICE REFORM 21
- 22. Responses to pressures not yet fixed 22 Priorities “Give choice to the user. Encourage competition between the suppliers. Pay by results wherever appropriate” Markets for public services “there will be no more of these pointless re- organisations that aim for change but instead bring chaos” Structural reform Digital “we’re going really become a much more digital organisation…”
- 23. Trends towards more, more complex, and larger scale outsourcing Complex Simple Natureofservice Payment for outcomes Payment for activity Type of contract Reoffending Desktop Hip replacements Drug treatment (DIP) Payroll Estate management Troubled families Priorities
- 24. Risk that cuts will trigger structural reforms 24 Priorities
- 25. Ambitious talk for savings from digital 25 Priorities “We are going to find the [£10 billion] savings… the systems for finding these savings are in much better shape than 5 years ago… take the impact of digital for instance. GDS… has the opportunities to go into other areas it hasn’t been in before” – Matt Hancock, MCO at the Institute for Government, May 22, 2015
- 26. - END - 26
- 27. About the Institute The Institute for Government is an independent charity with cross-party and Whitehall governance working to increase government effectiveness. Our funding comes from the Gatsby Charitable Foundation, one of the Sainsbury Family Charitable Trusts. We work with all the main political parties at Westminster and with senior civil servants in Whitehall, providing evidence-based advice that draws on best practice from around the world. We undertake research, provide the highest quality development opportunities for senior decision makers and organise events to invigorate and provide fresh thinking on the issues that really matter to government. 27
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Cabinet composition to May 2016 (projected) Source: IfG Ministerial database
- Note: core departments have taken a far
- Source: IFS Total spending, 2015/16 prices Key IFS notes: 1% a year real cut to public spending in 2016–17 and 2017–18 Real freeze to public spending in 2018–19 Spending to grow in line with the economy in 2019–20 2018–19 Spending in real terms around the level it was in 2008–09; Per-capita spend back to 2004–05
- Source IFS Departmental spending, 2015/16 prices Key points from chart: Spend in 2018–19 15.6% lower than in 2010–11 (real cut of £62.8 billion) Spend in 2018–19 6.6% lower than in 2015–16 (real cut of £23.8 billion) Departmental cuts: the next chapter? Conservative manifesto pledged to protect 3 areas of spending: aid: continue spending 0.7% national income on ODA schools: protect cash spending per pupil health: spend at least an additional £8 billion (real terms) by 2020 Together imply additional real terms spending of £6.2 billion between 2015–16 and 2018–19 requires cuts elsewhere to amount to £30.0 billion or 15.3% cumulative cut to unprotected departments since 2010–11 would reach 32.9% freezing defence spending through to 2018–19 would increase the cuts required elsewhere to 18.7% (or 36.9% since 2010–11) includes: Home Office, Ministry of Justice, Communities & Local Government and Business, Innovation & Skills, Transport, … Block grant to Scotland to fall, but by less than 6.6% Reducing the public sector wage bill General government employment reduced by 376,000 between 2010Q1 and 2014Q4, fall of 80,000 in 2015–16 forecast by the OBR now down to the level of the early 2000s and to the lowest share of workforce since at least early 1970s Public sector pay also squeezed our estimates suggest all of the increase in the estimated public sector pay differential seen since the financial crisis began now unwound Difficult trade-off between 2015–16 and 2018–19 if public sector pay increases in line with OBR projection then we estimate a further 500,000 reduction in general government employment this would reduce it to its lowest level since 1974 CPI indexation of pay through to 2018–19 would still require a further 350,000 reduction in general government employment Will the cuts be delivered? Coalition government successful in keeping (broadly) to the spending plans set out in 2010 But reasons to think cuts likely to be harder this parliament: squeezing public sector pay will get harder as private wages increase efficiencies easiest to identify and deliver presumably have been made programmes judged to be low-value presumably already scrapped ending of contracting out increases NICs bill of public sector employers (£3.3bn) latest pension scheme valuations push up the required employer contribution rate (£1.1bn) new commitments: extension of free childcare (£350m); new tax-free childcare (£0.8bn); abolition of cap on HE student numbers (£0.7bn); Dilnot social care (£1.0bn) population continues to grow (and age)
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- - The debate in Scotland is extremely polarised. This chart shows some of the different positions on one key measure of decentralisation (control of revenue, control of spending) in Scotland.
- [Note: images all gov.uk. No rights]
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