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Chapter 9
Operational Support

prof.dr.ir. Wil van der Aalst
www.processmining.org
Overview
Chapter 1
Introduction



Part I: Preliminaries

Chapter 2                   Chapter 3
Process Modeling and        Data Mining
Analysis


Part II: From Event Logs to Process Models

Chapter 4                  Chapter 5               Chapter 6
Getting the Data           Process Discovery: An   Advanced Process
                           Introduction            Discovery Techniques


Part III: Beyond Process Discovery

Chapter 7                   Chapter 8              Chapter 9
Conformance                 Mining Additional      Operational Support
Checking                    Perspectives


Part IV: Putting Process Mining to Work

Chapter 10                  Chapter 11             Chapter 12
Tool Support                Analyzing “Lasagna     Analyzing “Spaghetti
                            Processes”             Processes”


Part V: Reflection

Chapter 13                  Chapter 14
Cartography and             Epilogue
Navigation
                                                                          PAGE 1
Process mining spectrum

                             supports/
     “world”    business
                              controls
               processes                      software
  people   machines                            system
       components
          organizations                              records
                                                  events, e.g.,
                                                   messages,
                                  specifies       transactions,
   models
                                 configures            etc.
  analyzes
                                implements
                                  analyzes


                            discovery
       (process)                                 event
                           conformance
         model                                    logs
                           enhancement

                                                                  PAGE 2
Refined process mining framework
                                       people                                                            organizations
                        machines
                                                       business           “world”
                                                      processes                                   documents


                                                       information system(s)
                                                              provenance
                                          event logs
                                               “pre                                                   “post
                                           mortem”      current                         historic      mortem”
                                                         data                            data



     navigation                                                               auditing                                          cartography
                                   recommend




                                                                                                                                     diagnose
                                                                              compare




                                                                                                                           enhance
                                                                                                                discover
                                                                                        promote
              explore
                        predict




                                                             detect
                                                                      check




             models
                         de jure models                                                              de facto models


                              control-flow                                                             control-flow



                                  data/rules                                                           data/rules


                             resources/                                                                resources/
                            organization                                                              organization

                                                                                                                                                PAGE 3
Business process provenance

        people                                   organizations
   machines
                    business   “world”
                   processes             documents


                    information system(s)
                           provenance
        event logs
            “pre                               “post
        mortem”      current        historic   mortem”
                      data           data




                                                                 PAGE 4
Two types of event data:
post and pre mortem

• “Post mortem” event data refer to information about
  cases that have completed, i.e., these data can be
  used for process improvement and auditing, but not
  for influencing the cases they refer to.
• “Pre mortem” event data refer to cases that have not
  yet completed. If a case is still running, i.e., the case
  is still “alive” (pre mortem), then it may be possible
  that information in the event log about this case (i.e.,
  current data) can be exploited to ensure the correct
  or efficient handling of this case.



                                                        PAGE 5
Two types of models: “de jure models”
and “de facto models”

• A de jure model is normative, i.e., it specifies how
  things should be done or handled. For example, a
  process model used to configure a BPM system is
  normative and forces people to work in a particular
  way.
• A de facto model is descriptive and its goal is not to
  steer or control reality. Instead, de facto models aim
  to capture reality.




                                                      PAGE 6
Cartography

                                                     “post
                                         historic
• Discover. This activity is              data
                                                     mortem”


  concerned with the extraction of
  (process) models.                                                            cartography
• Enhance. When existing process




                                                                                    diagnose
                                                                          enhance
                                                               discover
  models (either discovered or
  hand-made) can be related to
  events logs, it is possible to
  enhance these models.              models
                                                    de facto models
• Diagnose. This activity does not
  directly use event logs and                         control-flow
  focuses on classical model-based
  analysis.                                           data/rules


                                                      resources/
                                                     organization


                                                                                               PAGE 7
Auditing

                                                    event logs
• Detect. Compares de jure models                       “pre                                               “post
  with current “pre mortem” data. The               mortem”    current
                                                                data
                                                                                               historic
                                                                                                data
                                                                                                           mortem”


  moment a predefined rule is
  violated, an alert is generated                                                    auditing

  (online).




                                                                                     compare
                                                                                               promote
                                                                    detect
                                                                             check
• Check. The goal of this activity is to
  pinpoint deviations and quantify the
  level of compliance (offline).           models
                                              de jure models                                              de facto models
• Compare. De facto models can be
  compared with de jure models to see          control-flow                                                 control-flow

  in what way reality deviates from
  what was planned or expected.                 data/rules                                                  data/rules


• Promote. Promote parts of the de              resources/                                                  resources/
                                               organization                                                organization
  facto model to a new de jure model.

                                                                                                                  PAGE 8
Navigation
                                                                           event logs
• Explore. The combination of event                                             “pre                        “post
                                                                            mortem”    current   historic   mortem”
  data and models can be used to                                                        data      data

  explore business processes at
  run-time.                            navigation




                                                                    recommend
• Predict. By combining information




                                                explore
                                                          predict
  about running cases with models,
  it is possible to make predictions
  about the future, e.g., the
                                               models
  remaining flow time and the
  probability of success.
• Recommend. The information
  used for predicting the future can
  also be used to recommend
  suitable actions (e.g. to minimize
  costs or time).
                                                                                                      PAGE 9
Operational support:
online process mining using “pre mortem” event data




                                                            T=10
      current
       state
known       unknown
 past         future   a b                          a b            ? ?              a b            c ?
                       detect: b does not fit the    predict: some prediction is    recommend: based on past
a b         c d        model (not allowed, too
                               late, etc.)
                                                     made about the future (e.g.
                                                    completion date or outcome)
                                                                                   experiences c is recommended
                                                                                      (e.g., to minimize costs)




                                                                                                           PAGE 10
Let us focus one time




                        PAGE 11
b
                                                                                                                      examine

Transition system                                                                                           c1
                                                                                                                     thoroughly

                                                                                                                                   c3
                                                                                                                                                                  g
                                                                                                                                                                 pay
                                                                                                                            c
(with start/complete)                                                              start
                                                                                                a
                                                                                             register
                                                                                                                       examine
                                                                                                                       casually
                                                                                                                                            e
                                                                                                                                        decide         c5
                                                                                                                                                             compensation

                                                                                                                                                                            end
                                                                                             request
                                                                                                                                                                  h
                                                                                                              c2            d      c4                           reject
                                                                                                                    check ticket                               request
                                                                                                                                        f
                                                                                                                                                reinitiate
                                                                                                                                                 request


                               [a]
                                               astart               [start]
                      acomplete
       [p1,p2]                 dstart               [p1,d]                       dcomplete          [p1,p4]

         bstart       cstart         dstart
                                                        bstart          cstart       dcomplete bstart              cstart

     [b,p2]                                     [b,d]                                                                   [c,p4]
                                                                                             [b,p4]
                             [c,p2]                                          [c,d]
                              dstart                                             dcomplete
      bcomplete           ccomplete             bcomplete               ccomplete               bcomplete          ccomplete

       [p3,p2]                       dstart                                       dcomplete                        [p3,p4]
                                                             [p3,d]

              fcomplete        [f]             fstart            [p5]        ecomplete          [e]           estart

                                                    gstart                 hstart

                                              [g]                                   [h]

                                              gcomplete                     hcomplete
                                                                                                                                                               PAGE 12
                                                        [p5]
Operational support: Detect




                              PAGE 13
Example

                              b                                                             alert!!!!
                          examine
                                             c3
                         thoroughly
                                                                            g
                   c1                                                      pay
                              c                                        compensation
           a              examine
                                                      e
start   register          casually                decide         c5                   end
        request
                                                                            h
                    c2        d         c4                                reject
                         check ticket                                    request
                                                  f
                                                          reinitiate
                                                           request




                                                                                                   PAGE 14
Declare specifications for
  detecting violations

                    pay
                                             • Satisfied: the LTL formula
                compensation                   evaluates to true for the
                     g                         current partial trace.
                               c2
                                             • Temporarily violated: the
                         c1                    LTL formula evaluates to
   a       c4                         e
register                            decide     false, however, there is a
request                        c3              longer trace that evaluates
                     h                         to true.
                   reject
                  request                    • Permanently violated: the
                                               LTL formula evaluates to
                                               false for current trace and
                                               all its extensions



                                                                             PAGE 15
Conflicting constraints

                                                • A Declare specification is
                       pay
                                                  satisfied for a case if all of its
                   compensation                   constraints are satisfied.
                        g                       • A Declare specification is
              c4                  c2
                                                  temporarily violated by a case if
                            c1
                                                  for the current partial trace at
      a                                  e
                                       decide
                                                  least one of the constraints is
   register
   request    c5                  c3              violated, however, there is a
                        h                         possible future in which all
                      reject                      constraints are satisfied.
                     request
                                                • A Declare specification is
                                                  permanently violated by a case if
                                                  no such future exists.

Note that c1, c2, and c3 imply that e cannot
be executed without permanently violating
the specification.                                                              PAGE 16
Operational support: Predict




                               PAGE 17
Examples of predictions

• the predicted remaining flow time is 14 days;
• the predicted probability of meeting the legal
  deadline is 0.72;
• the predicted total cost of this case is 4500 euro;
• the predicted probability that activity a will occur is
  0.34;
• the predicted probability that person r will work on
  this case is 0.57;
• the predicted probability that a case will be rejected
  is 0.67; and
• the predicted total service time is 98 minutes.

                                                        PAGE 18
Annotated transition system

                                               t=12,e=0,r=42,s=7
                 t=17,e=0,r=56,s=6

                                               [a]
              t=19,e=7,r=35,s=6                               astart               [start] t=28,e=11,r=45,s=2
                                      acomplete
                       [p1,p2]                 dstart             [p1,d]                dcomplete      [p1,p4]
  t=23,e=6,r=50,s=5
                                                                                                 b
                                                                   bstart t=30,e=13,r=43,s=2 start                  cstart     t=32,e=15,r=41,s=6
                          bstart      cstart                                cstart
                                                     dstart                            dcomplete
                      [b,p2]                                   [b,d]
t=25,e=13,r=29,s=1                                                                         [b,p4]
                                         [c,p2]                                  [c,d]                                       [c,p4]
                                          dstart                                        dcomplete                           t=33,e=21,r=21,s=2
                       bcomplete   t=26,e=14,r=28,s=6
                                      ccomplete   bcomplete                         ccomplete         bcomplete     ccomplete

                        [p3,p2]               dstart                                      dcomplete
                                   t=32,e=20,r=22,s=1                     [p3,d]                        [p3,p4]
                                                                                                                             t=38,e=21,r=35,s=12
                               fcomplete  [f]        fstart                 [p5]       ecomplete      [e]         estart
                                                                                                                        t=35,e=23,r=19,s=5
                      t=40,e=28,r=14,s=10
                                                                          gstart      hstart                 t=50,e=33,r=23,s=9
                       t=59,e=42,r=14,s=11 [g]                                                 [h]

                        t=70,e=53,r=3,s=3                     gcomplete               hcomplete       t=50,e=38,r=4,s=4

                                                                       [p5]
                                                                                       t=54,e=42,r=0
                                                                                                                                              PAGE 19
                                                     t=73,e=56,r=0
Collect results per state

                          [a]
                                          astart               [start]
                 acomplete
  [p1,p2]                 dstart               [p1,d]                       dcomplete      [p1,p4]

    bstart       cstart         dstart
                                                   bstart          cstart       dcomplete bstart          cstart
                                                                                                           [c,p4]       elapsed times:
[b,p2]                                     [b,d]                                                                       [21,21,15,42, … ]
                                                                                        [b,p4]
                        [c,p2]                                          [c,d]
                         dstart                                                                      ccomplete
                                                                            dcomplete                                  remaining times:
 bcomplete           ccomplete             bcomplete               ccomplete             bcomplete                     [21,35,58,31, … ]
  [p3,p2]                       dstart                                       dcomplete
                                                        [p3,d]                             [p3,p4]
                                                                                                                        sojourn times:
                          [f]                               [p5]        ecomplete         [e]                           [2,12,5,13, … ]
         fcomplete                        fstart
                                                                                                 estart
                                               gstart                 hstart
                                                                                                                    average remaining
                                         [g]                                   [h]                                   flow time is 42.56
                                         gcomplete                     hcomplete

                                                   [p5]
                                                                                                                                           PAGE 20
Operational support: Recommend




                                 PAGE 21
Recommend

• Possible recommendations:
   − next activity;
   − suitable resource; or
   − routing decision.
• A recommendation is always given with respect to a
  specific goal.
• Examples of goals are:
   −   minimize the remaining flow time;
   −   minimize the total costs;
   −   maximize the fraction of cases handled within 4 weeks;
   −   maximize the fraction of cases that is accepted; and
   −   minimize resource usage.
                                                          PAGE 22
Relation between prediction and
recommendation

            possible next state
                                    prediction

    current state


                           a1

                             a2

                           ak
                                  ...


                                                 PAGE 23
Process mining spectrum
                                  people                                                            organizations
                   machines
                                                  business           “world”
                                                 processes                                   documents


                                                  information system(s)
                                                                                                                                           Chapter 1
                                                                                                                                           Introduction
                                                         provenance
                                     event logs
                                                                                                                                           Part I: Preliminaries

                                          “pre                                                   “post                                     Chapter 2                   Chapter 3

                                      mortem”      current                         historic      mortem”
                                                                                                                                           Process Modeling and
                                                                                                                                           Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                       Data Mining

                                                    data                            data
                                                                                                                                           Part II: From Event Logs to Process Models

                                                                                                                                           Chapter 4                  Chapter 5               Chapter 6
                                                                                                                                           Getting the Data           Process Discovery: An   Advanced Process

navigation                                                               auditing                                          cartography                                Introduction            Discovery Techniques
                              recommend




                                                                                                                                           Part III: Beyond Process Discovery




                                                                                                                                diagnose
                                                                         compare




                                                                                                                      enhance
                                                                                                           discover
                                                                                   promote
         explore
                   predict




                                                        detect




                                                                                                                                           Chapter 7                   Chapter 8              Chapter 9
                                                                 check




                                                                                                                                           Conformance                 Mining Additional      Operational Support
                                                                                                                                           Checking                    Perspectives


                                                                                                                                           Part IV: Putting Process Mining to Work

                                                                                                                                           Chapter 10                  Chapter 11             Chapter 12
                                                                                                                                           Tool Support                Analyzing “Lasagna     Analyzing “Spaghetti
                                                                                                                                                                       Processes”             Processes”

        models                                                                                                                             Part V: Reflection

                    de jure models                                                              de facto models                            Chapter 13                  Chapter 14
                                                                                                                                           Cartography and             Epilogue
                                                                                                                                           Navigation



                         control-flow                                                             control-flow



                             data/rules                                                           data/rules


                        resources/                                                                resources/
                       organization                                                              organization

                                                                                                                                                                                                 PAGE 24

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Process mining chapter_09_operational_support

  • 1. Chapter 9 Operational Support prof.dr.ir. Wil van der Aalst www.processmining.org
  • 2. Overview Chapter 1 Introduction Part I: Preliminaries Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Process Modeling and Data Mining Analysis Part II: From Event Logs to Process Models Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Getting the Data Process Discovery: An Advanced Process Introduction Discovery Techniques Part III: Beyond Process Discovery Chapter 7 Chapter 8 Chapter 9 Conformance Mining Additional Operational Support Checking Perspectives Part IV: Putting Process Mining to Work Chapter 10 Chapter 11 Chapter 12 Tool Support Analyzing “Lasagna Analyzing “Spaghetti Processes” Processes” Part V: Reflection Chapter 13 Chapter 14 Cartography and Epilogue Navigation PAGE 1
  • 3. Process mining spectrum supports/ “world” business controls processes software people machines system components organizations records events, e.g., messages, specifies transactions, models configures etc. analyzes implements analyzes discovery (process) event conformance model logs enhancement PAGE 2
  • 4. Refined process mining framework people organizations machines business “world” processes documents information system(s) provenance event logs “pre “post mortem” current historic mortem” data data navigation auditing cartography recommend diagnose compare enhance discover promote explore predict detect check models de jure models de facto models control-flow control-flow data/rules data/rules resources/ resources/ organization organization PAGE 3
  • 5. Business process provenance people organizations machines business “world” processes documents information system(s) provenance event logs “pre “post mortem” current historic mortem” data data PAGE 4
  • 6. Two types of event data: post and pre mortem • “Post mortem” event data refer to information about cases that have completed, i.e., these data can be used for process improvement and auditing, but not for influencing the cases they refer to. • “Pre mortem” event data refer to cases that have not yet completed. If a case is still running, i.e., the case is still “alive” (pre mortem), then it may be possible that information in the event log about this case (i.e., current data) can be exploited to ensure the correct or efficient handling of this case. PAGE 5
  • 7. Two types of models: “de jure models” and “de facto models” • A de jure model is normative, i.e., it specifies how things should be done or handled. For example, a process model used to configure a BPM system is normative and forces people to work in a particular way. • A de facto model is descriptive and its goal is not to steer or control reality. Instead, de facto models aim to capture reality. PAGE 6
  • 8. Cartography “post historic • Discover. This activity is data mortem” concerned with the extraction of (process) models. cartography • Enhance. When existing process diagnose enhance discover models (either discovered or hand-made) can be related to events logs, it is possible to enhance these models. models de facto models • Diagnose. This activity does not directly use event logs and control-flow focuses on classical model-based analysis. data/rules resources/ organization PAGE 7
  • 9. Auditing event logs • Detect. Compares de jure models “pre “post with current “pre mortem” data. The mortem” current data historic data mortem” moment a predefined rule is violated, an alert is generated auditing (online). compare promote detect check • Check. The goal of this activity is to pinpoint deviations and quantify the level of compliance (offline). models de jure models de facto models • Compare. De facto models can be compared with de jure models to see control-flow control-flow in what way reality deviates from what was planned or expected. data/rules data/rules • Promote. Promote parts of the de resources/ resources/ organization organization facto model to a new de jure model. PAGE 8
  • 10. Navigation event logs • Explore. The combination of event “pre “post mortem” current historic mortem” data and models can be used to data data explore business processes at run-time. navigation recommend • Predict. By combining information explore predict about running cases with models, it is possible to make predictions about the future, e.g., the models remaining flow time and the probability of success. • Recommend. The information used for predicting the future can also be used to recommend suitable actions (e.g. to minimize costs or time). PAGE 9
  • 11. Operational support: online process mining using “pre mortem” event data T=10 current state known unknown past future a b a b ? ? a b c ? detect: b does not fit the predict: some prediction is recommend: based on past a b c d model (not allowed, too late, etc.) made about the future (e.g. completion date or outcome) experiences c is recommended (e.g., to minimize costs) PAGE 10
  • 12. Let us focus one time PAGE 11
  • 13. b examine Transition system c1 thoroughly c3 g pay c (with start/complete) start a register examine casually e decide c5 compensation end request h c2 d c4 reject check ticket request f reinitiate request [a] astart [start] acomplete [p1,p2] dstart [p1,d] dcomplete [p1,p4] bstart cstart dstart bstart cstart dcomplete bstart cstart [b,p2] [b,d] [c,p4] [b,p4] [c,p2] [c,d] dstart dcomplete bcomplete ccomplete bcomplete ccomplete bcomplete ccomplete [p3,p2] dstart dcomplete [p3,p4] [p3,d] fcomplete [f] fstart [p5] ecomplete [e] estart gstart hstart [g] [h] gcomplete hcomplete PAGE 12 [p5]
  • 15. Example b alert!!!! examine c3 thoroughly g c1 pay c compensation a examine e start register casually decide c5 end request h c2 d c4 reject check ticket request f reinitiate request PAGE 14
  • 16. Declare specifications for detecting violations pay • Satisfied: the LTL formula compensation evaluates to true for the g current partial trace. c2 • Temporarily violated: the c1 LTL formula evaluates to a c4 e register decide false, however, there is a request c3 longer trace that evaluates h to true. reject request • Permanently violated: the LTL formula evaluates to false for current trace and all its extensions PAGE 15
  • 17. Conflicting constraints • A Declare specification is pay satisfied for a case if all of its compensation constraints are satisfied. g • A Declare specification is c4 c2 temporarily violated by a case if c1 for the current partial trace at a e decide least one of the constraints is register request c5 c3 violated, however, there is a h possible future in which all reject constraints are satisfied. request • A Declare specification is permanently violated by a case if no such future exists. Note that c1, c2, and c3 imply that e cannot be executed without permanently violating the specification. PAGE 16
  • 19. Examples of predictions • the predicted remaining flow time is 14 days; • the predicted probability of meeting the legal deadline is 0.72; • the predicted total cost of this case is 4500 euro; • the predicted probability that activity a will occur is 0.34; • the predicted probability that person r will work on this case is 0.57; • the predicted probability that a case will be rejected is 0.67; and • the predicted total service time is 98 minutes. PAGE 18
  • 20. Annotated transition system t=12,e=0,r=42,s=7 t=17,e=0,r=56,s=6 [a] t=19,e=7,r=35,s=6 astart [start] t=28,e=11,r=45,s=2 acomplete [p1,p2] dstart [p1,d] dcomplete [p1,p4] t=23,e=6,r=50,s=5 b bstart t=30,e=13,r=43,s=2 start cstart t=32,e=15,r=41,s=6 bstart cstart cstart dstart dcomplete [b,p2] [b,d] t=25,e=13,r=29,s=1 [b,p4] [c,p2] [c,d] [c,p4] dstart dcomplete t=33,e=21,r=21,s=2 bcomplete t=26,e=14,r=28,s=6 ccomplete bcomplete ccomplete bcomplete ccomplete [p3,p2] dstart dcomplete t=32,e=20,r=22,s=1 [p3,d] [p3,p4] t=38,e=21,r=35,s=12 fcomplete [f] fstart [p5] ecomplete [e] estart t=35,e=23,r=19,s=5 t=40,e=28,r=14,s=10 gstart hstart t=50,e=33,r=23,s=9 t=59,e=42,r=14,s=11 [g] [h] t=70,e=53,r=3,s=3 gcomplete hcomplete t=50,e=38,r=4,s=4 [p5] t=54,e=42,r=0 PAGE 19 t=73,e=56,r=0
  • 21. Collect results per state [a] astart [start] acomplete [p1,p2] dstart [p1,d] dcomplete [p1,p4] bstart cstart dstart bstart cstart dcomplete bstart cstart [c,p4] elapsed times: [b,p2] [b,d] [21,21,15,42, … ] [b,p4] [c,p2] [c,d] dstart ccomplete dcomplete remaining times: bcomplete ccomplete bcomplete ccomplete bcomplete [21,35,58,31, … ] [p3,p2] dstart dcomplete [p3,d] [p3,p4] sojourn times: [f] [p5] ecomplete [e] [2,12,5,13, … ] fcomplete fstart estart gstart hstart average remaining [g] [h] flow time is 42.56 gcomplete hcomplete [p5] PAGE 20
  • 23. Recommend • Possible recommendations: − next activity; − suitable resource; or − routing decision. • A recommendation is always given with respect to a specific goal. • Examples of goals are: − minimize the remaining flow time; − minimize the total costs; − maximize the fraction of cases handled within 4 weeks; − maximize the fraction of cases that is accepted; and − minimize resource usage. PAGE 22
  • 24. Relation between prediction and recommendation possible next state prediction current state a1 a2 ak ... PAGE 23
  • 25. Process mining spectrum people organizations machines business “world” processes documents information system(s) Chapter 1 Introduction provenance event logs Part I: Preliminaries “pre “post Chapter 2 Chapter 3 mortem” current historic mortem” Process Modeling and Analysis Data Mining data data Part II: From Event Logs to Process Models Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Getting the Data Process Discovery: An Advanced Process navigation auditing cartography Introduction Discovery Techniques recommend Part III: Beyond Process Discovery diagnose compare enhance discover promote explore predict detect Chapter 7 Chapter 8 Chapter 9 check Conformance Mining Additional Operational Support Checking Perspectives Part IV: Putting Process Mining to Work Chapter 10 Chapter 11 Chapter 12 Tool Support Analyzing “Lasagna Analyzing “Spaghetti Processes” Processes” models Part V: Reflection de jure models de facto models Chapter 13 Chapter 14 Cartography and Epilogue Navigation control-flow control-flow data/rules data/rules resources/ resources/ organization organization PAGE 24