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DELIVERING
INDIA
Last Updated
03.30.2015
By:
Michael Dempsey
Email at:
michael@michaeldempsey.me
Tweet at:
@mhdempsey
INDIA‘s rising online grocery
delivery industry
An in-depth look at the macroeconomic factors, bu-
siness models, and opportunities surrounding one of
Asia‘s largest markets in tech.
Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry
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I
n 2014 I started to notice an increase of
venture capital investment in Asia going
to eCommerce companies. That trend
has only accelerated in 2015.
In my previous role as an investment ana-
lyst at a multi-strategy hedge fund I con-
ducted research around global infrastruc-
ture trends, and how they might affect
businesses in select regions. I learned
about India’s notoriously inefficient and
fragmented infrastructure and logistics
problems.
As I started to dive deeper into the vari-
ous ecosystems within Asia, I was drawn
to the unique problems that were posed
in some of the emerging tech markets,
and how they affected one very specific
market in India; food retail and grocery
delivery.
In the US, companies like Plated, Blue
Apron, Instacart, Munchery, and Sprig,
have raised significant capital from inves-
tors. I couldn’t believe that some of the
same business models and consumer be-
havior wouldn’t be applicable to a massive
market like India. And while on the surfa-
ce it may seem as if we’ve seen that hap-
pen, this isn‘t merely a case of US-based
business models being ported to a large,
emerging market. Something fundamen-
tally different is happening in India.
I set out on a mission to better under-
stand this developing eCommerce space.
In this report I’ve touched on how the in-
troduction of technology around grocery
delivery has affected Indian citizens, how
macroeconomic trends could affect tech
in India, as well as specific companies that
could be important in this landscape for
years to come.
I’ve spent a fair amount of time at night
reading as much as possible about this
space and broader industry dynamics.
I’ve tried to compile many different sets
of data, add some analysis to that data,
and frame an industry in its infancy for
outsiders who may know nothing about it.
I wanted to give the reader an overall look
at the state of India’s online food retail
and grocery delivery industry. And while
I am no expert in the Indian market, I feel
that I have accomplished my goal with
this report.
If you have any questions, comments, or
concerns, or if you want to tell me why
you think this is wrong or what I‘ve mis-
sed, feel free to tweet or email me.
INTRODUCTION
“This isn‘t merely a case of US-based business models being ported to a
large, emerging market. Something fundamentally different is happening
in India.“
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Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Macroeconomic trends
	 Economic Growth 4
	 Population 5
	 Internet Infrastructure 6
	 Overall Statistics 7
INDIA‘s eCommerce Industry
Grocery Delivery in India
	 Why Is It Unique? 8
	 Penetration of Modern Retail 9
	 Customer Demographics 10
	 Business Models 11
	 Changing Customer Behavior 13
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES & CONCLUSION
	 Surrounding Industries 14
	 Conclusion 15
	 Appendix I - List of Companies 16
	 Appendix II - Further Reading/Sources 17
I
ndia is now projected to be the fastest growing large economy in the world per the
IMF, with a projected growth rate of over 7% for the fiscal year of 2015, with others pro-
jecting GDP growth of 8%+ in the coming years. And while the boom in GDP growth
has its skeptics who believe that the overall impact of “under-the-radar” workers is over-
stated, larger macroeconomic trends are at play.
These trends include largely weaker currencies vs. the stable Rupee, eased inflation, fal-
ling oil prices (important for an economy that imports ~80% of its oil), as well as a new
corporation and globalization-focused Prime Minister in Narendra Modi.
Specifically Modi has focused on increasing the foreign direct investment in India. For a
country that just started allowing FDI in 1991, and still has moderately strict caps on FDI
in certain industries, this could be huge. Sonal Pandya of the University of Virginia descri-
bed the effects of FDI on a variety of sectors best, with this quote:
“The textbook case for FDI can be summarized in two words: technology transfer. The
multinational corporations that undertake FDI are among the world’s most productive
firms. These firms introduce their cutting edge technologies and production practices
into the countries in which they invest. In the ideal case, FDI increases demand for skilled
workers and, eventually, their technologies ‘spill over’ into the local economy.”
Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry
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ECONOMIC GROWTH
MACROECONOMIC TRENDS
Another key statistic working in India’s favor is their population. While rival economies
like China, saw their workforce shrink in the past few years, over half of India’s 1.25 bil-
lion population is under the age of 25, while over 65% are below the age of 35. With a
median age of 27 years old in 2014, and an expected median age of 29 in 2020, India
will be the youngest country in the world in the near future.
The young median age is also aided by the high number of software engineers. Cur-
rently India trails only the US with 2.75 million to the US’ 3.6 million, however India is
projected to surpass the US by 2017, as the number of software engineers is expected
to grow 90% to 5.2M vs. the US’ 4.5M.
With a large number of young people for the forseeable future, and an incredibly deep
talent pool of engineers, internet penetration is another major factor for the overall
Indian tech scene.
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Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry
A YOUNG POPULATION
MACROECONOMIC TRENDS
Key Points
•	 Low overall penetration
•	 Massive user growth and potential user base.
•	 High mobile adoption
•	 High cost of access and usage
India only has 19% of their population on the Internet. This figure grew 14% last year
(a high figure considering Uganda was tied for the most growth at 17%). The chart
above indicates that the entire ecosystem reached escape velocity around 2010, which
was driven at least in part by mobile penetration in the country. Mobile Internet users
are expected to reach 213 million by June 2015, and there were ~935 million mobile
connections in October 2014, equating to a little over 4 connections per user.
The general increase of Internet users in India is often attributed to the rise of mobile
technology. Previously the costs and subsequently the barriers to entry for Internet
access was too high with computers. In fact, the $61 per MBps (on a PPP basis) gives
India one of the highest median costs for broadband Internet access, more than 4x
that of China, Brazil, and Argentina. Initiatives to develop low-priced mobile devices
like the Aakash tablet, have enabled users in both major cities such as Mumbai, Delhi,
and Bangalore as well as tier 2 and 3 cities to come online quickly.
There are projects being proposed that could even more dramatically increase In-
ternet coverage in India over the next 3-5 years, which would further accelerate the
potential markets for broader eCommerce in the country.
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INTERNET INFRASTRUCTURE
MACROECONOMIC TRENDS
W
ith increased Internet penetration in India, eCommerce has grown drasti-
cally in recent years. Some are comparing India’s eCommerce market to-
day, to China’s in the mid-2000’s, as China had only 8-10% of Internet users
transacting online just a few years ago, but now sees nearly 35% today. Paired with a
similarly unorganized retail structure, this makes for a great comparison as many value
propositions are aligned.
Accel Partners India has a slideshow detailing some broader ecommerce trends. Spar-
kLabs Global also released a report about eCommerce in Asia. Both are incredibly
informative views into this large market.
A few key points from the Accel report:
•	 Online shopping of physical goods will grow to $8.5B in 2016
•	 60% of Internet users visit eCommerce sites
•	 eCommerce only accounts for 0.2% of all retail
•	 Conversion rates should increase to China-esque levels of 3.5%, as some goods in
tier 2 and tier 3 cities are simply not available locally
It’s worth noting that Accel Partners is one of the most active VCs in India, with a slew
of high profile eCommerce bets, including now-merged Flipkart and Myntra, as well as
Big Tree Entertainment and Bluestone.com. They also just raised their fourth India-fo-
cused fund, at $305M.
On the funding front, overall Asian eCommerce funding reached $11.5B on 367 finan-
cings per CB Insights data in 2014, up 312% on a funding basis and 59% on a deals
basis. India’s eCommerce industry accounted for 29% of those deals, while funding
surpassed $3B on the year.
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Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry
OVERALL STATISTICS
ecommerce in india
W
hile many US and European online food and grocery delivery companies
have raised billions of dollars from VCs over the past few years, the Indian
market is incredibly different and unique.
Key Traits
•	 India is the 6th largest grocery market in the world
•	 Only 5-8% of grocery stores are organized corporations. The vast majority are
“mom & pop” type shops that are similar to convenience stores in the US and are re-
ferred to as “kiranas”
•	 The online grocery market is growing at 25-30% annually in metropolitan areas and
large cities
•	 Margins are below 10%
•	 43% of the country’s roads are not suitable for vehicles. Paired with checkpoints,
and duty collection points that slow down traffic, infrastructure is an obstacle
In the US, while it is a mild inconvenience to drive/walk to the grocery store, park, shop
for yourself, load up your car, and drive home, it is very doable in almost every city and
town across the country. In India it is magnitudes more difficult, time consuming, and
even could be considered impossible at some times.
India’s infrastructure and overcrowded major cities make it a nightmare for in and out
shopping. In a variety of the major cities, there are very few parking lots for grocery sto-
res, and the prohibitive traffic makes the time commitment and risk even higher when
driving to crowded city centers that feature more full-service grocery stores or modern
retailers. However, while the infrastructure makes it difficult for consumers to get to the
grocery stores, the poor driving conditions and unsuitable roads, make consistent and
stable delivery service a struggle. This has led to a high number of consumer comp-
laints revolving around delivery timing for this still emerging industry.
While the city infrastructure is a challenge, the industry infrastructure is as well. As
stated above, only 5-8% of all grocery stores in the country are organized corporations
or entities. This not only makes it difficult for service providers to win large contracts
with a chain, similar to what Instacart has done with Whole Foods, but it also changes
overall market dynamics as Indian shoppers are rarely tied to a larger brand for their
food purchases.
This has led to a push from the tech companies to try and facilitate better organization
and back-end technology for the kiranas.
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WHY IS IT UNIQUE?
GROCERY DELIVERY IN India
Unlike the US, India does not have the same level of “modern retail” penetration where
consumers travel to a mega-store like Walmart to purchase all of their goods. While
modern retail has started to gain traction in recent years, food & grocery, a segment
where companies like Walmart and Tesco derive over 50% of their revenue from glo-
bally, has been the least penetrated.
And even while that penetration is modestly increasing, the major players are getting
killed. Estimates peg losses for the 10 largest players including Best Price Modern
Wholesale (Walmart owned), Metro Cash & Carry India (Metro AG), Aditya Birla Re-
tail, Bharti Retail, Reliance Fresh, and Trent Hypermarket at $2.2B in 2013-14. Despite
growing revenues from $500M in 2008 to $4B in 2014, it is projected that losses will
continue to increase.
Both penetration and mounting losses spell a huge problem for these modern retailers
hoping to build sustainable businesses and topple the mom and pop stores in India, a
market where 70% of the over $500B in retail trade comes from food. But maybe in the
way that India largely skipped the PC revolution, they will do the same with modern
retail and go directly to eCommerce.
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Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry
MODERN RETAIL
GROCERY DELIVERY IN India
The online grocery delivery market in India has some very unique demographic stati-
stics that have risen out of a new shopping method for the country including:
•	 Women ages 30-35 are the largest adopters of online grocery shopping
•	 68% of all users on major e-grocer LocalBanya.com are women
•	 14% of LocalBanya’s customers are senior citizens
•	 11% of orders are done in 10pm - midnight slot. Previously unattainable
•	 Institutional clients make up 29% of orders for select major retailers
The prevalence of women online emerged in India’s eCommerce industry. It is projec-
ted that women-influenced sales will be 35% of Indian eCommerce by 2016. This is a
massive departure from brick-and-mortar sales, which are dominated by men across
all industries. The rise of women in eCommerce has been attributed largely to conve-
nience, as well as increased privacy and safety.
Online grocers have been able to target a niche by offering later delivery windows than
many traditional grocery stores. Currently, 11% of orders are for delivery during the
10pm – 12am time slot, which was previously unattainable for customers. This offering
comes at a time when Narendra Modi has spoken about extending work hours to 8 pm
from 6 pm for government officials, while overall workers in India feel they are working
longer hours than in previous years.
Larger online grocers have also been able to attract a high number of institutional
clients from restaurants to corporations to other organizations that require groceries
in bulk. As some of the larger online grocers continue to white label consumer diet
staples, restaurant purchasing could even increase further.
The middle class is also expanding in India
and will be the 3rd largest middle class in the
world in 2020, and the largest in the world in
2030. This will lead to a growing number of
consumers that buy groceries, but begin to
calculate a time-value analysis as their wealth
grows. These consumers will subsequently
find that grocery shopping via the Internet is
a high value-add service.
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CUSTOMER DEMOGRAPHICS
UNDERSTANDING THE CUSTOMER
Pure-play online grocery retailers are
at the forefront of the boom in grocery
eCommerce, which has over tripled in size
by number of players year-over-year from
under 15 in 2013 to over 40 in 2014.
These companies build large warehouses
and distribution centers outside of major
cities and own fleets of GPS-enabled ve-
hicles in order to serve online demand.
BigBasket and LocalBanya are the main
players and use the “hub and spoke” mo-
del to build out their areas of coverage.
Advantages to this model include lower
real estate costs (as they are able to set
up just outside of major cities), a broader
range of products stocked, and a better
overall customer experience versus tradi-
tional grocery shopping in India. By aggre-
gating demand and data around purcha-
sing, these companies are also able to use
their buying power to their advantage.
For example, to counter an already slim
operating margin, some of the pure-play
companies have started to offer private
label bulk goods. Main staples such as
rice and spices are being bought in bulk
from suppliers and sold for a higher mar-
gin under the e-retailer’s private label.
Companies like LocalBanya are negoti-
ating with various agricultural co-ops for
direct purchases. The company is also
looking at commissioning the production
of fruit and fresh produce, while also ex-
perimenting with programs that can trans-
port fresh fish and meat directly to their
distribution centers to offer better quality
goods than traditional grocers. This is a
key differentiator as a large percentage of
the “market fish” in India contains preser-
vatives and are of a lesser quality. Compa-
nies such as SeaToHome.com have even
emerged to try to vertically serve these
niches.
One of the key struggles for this model
is the logistics management for their or-
dering systems and subsequently their
customer service. For all of the reasons
that make online grocery delivery benefi-
cial for consumers in India, they also make
the logistics very difficult. Because of this,
one of the initial KPIs for many of these
companies has been the percentage of
orders that arrive on time.
While the broader food retail market com-
plains that pure-play companies are me-
rely winning on discounts, they continue
to take market share and have drawn inte-
rest of larger players, including Grodrej’s’
purchase of Ekstop for ~$7M in Feb. 2015.
Business Traits
•	 Online grocery retail outlets have in-
creased 3x+ YoY
•	 Lower utilities and real estate costs
•	 Broader product offering
•	 Higher quality via farm to market
Major Players
•	 Big Basket - $33.7M revenue
•	 Local Banya - $11.8M revenue
•	 Reliance Fresh Direct
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Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry
PURE-PLAY ONLINE ONLY
GROCERY DELIVERY BUSINESS MODELS
Marketplace Provider companies provide
a front-end and logistics management
service for smaller chains, as well as inde-
pendent grocers for a recurring monthly
or annual fee. These companies are most
comparable to Instacart in the US. Pep-
pertap, which raised $1.2M from Sequoia
Capital, as well as AaramShop are two of
the notable independent companies in
this space, while larger players like Ama-
zon and Tradus have entered as well.
The Marketplace business model has
been praised due to its lack of inventory
investment, however these companies
still cannot interface with smaller mom
and pop grocers due to their need for an
organized back-end to properly manage
the inventory on the front-end.
Marketplace companies like AaramShop
have also used local data aggregation to
offer consumers a previously unseen pri-
cing index. On AaramShop‘s platform,
consumers can search for a specific food
item and find the best deal across all par-
ticipating retailers.
Amazon recently launched “Kirana Now”
in its first test market, Bengaluru. Amazon
intends for grocers to upload their catalo-
gue, and then provide integration with a
third party logistics provider for delivery
within 2-4 hours. The biggest issue with
this continues to be the lack of back-end
infrastructure in many kiranas. However,
Amazon may be best positioned to solve
this problem due to its logistics expertise.
Marketplace players also face competiti-
on from companies like Grofers (another
Sequoia investment), which are more ge-
neral “on-demand” platforms and could
be used for similar food and grocery deli-
very tasks, a la Postmates in the US.
In addition, the value of the pricing,
purchasing and behavior data that mar-
ketplace providers can gather over time
may be equal to the value of the ser-
vice-side business. Entire companies like
Premise Data have been built around this
concept, but at a much larger scale.
Others
Larger companies like Amazon (outside of
Kirana Now) and eBay offer select gour-
met and non-perishable items. Many are
skeptical of this model, as consumers look
to fill their entire order at once online.
Smaller grocers have also attempted to
build an online presence. While their core
competency within delivery remains via
phone, it is likely that there will be a shift
for mom and pop stores in major cities to
have an online ordering system in place in
the next 5 years.
Business Traits
•	 Charge grocery stores recurring fee.
•	 Manage front-end and logistics
•	 Asset-light business focused on fast
delivery
Major Players
•	 AaramShop
•	 Peppertap
•	 Jiffstore
•	 Amazon Kirana
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Marketplace Providers
GROCERY DELIVERY BUSINESS MODELS
HOW WILL IT CHANGE?
customer behavior
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Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry
Removing In-Person Shopping
A high percentage of customers in major cities are already buying groceries without
physically seeing them. In India, phone orders to Kiranas are somewhat commonplace,
so changing that behavior is very different than how a company like Instacart has had
to try to change the shopping behavior of many Americans. In addition to this, upstart
companies can focus more on logistics and offerings, and less on UI and design, as
sight and feel are less important to the Indian consumer in the grocery space.
For those who still value in-person shopping, some of India’s largest eCommerce play-
ers have tried to blur the line by using their overall eCommerce platform as a way to
subtly change behavior. Amazon India and Snapdeal both have added food and gour-
met categories to their platforms. These categories are aimed at converting existing
customers to online grocery shoppers, while providing an easy and lightweight beha-
vioral shift over time that coincides with other online purchases.
A Better UX and Marketplace
Haggling is commonplace in many kiranas and markets in India. Online ordering remo-
ves that entire process and allows for better forecasting on the provider side, as well as
a more consistent experience on the consumer side.
In addition to a potentially less stressful experience, analytics around shopping behavi-
or continue to provide huge utility to shoppers, in the form of increased ease of re-or-
dering, or better pricing transparency. While phone ordering and subsequent delivery
has been prevalent in previous years, the ability to easily re-order in less time due to a
web interface and data analytics will create loyalty to a specific provider and increased
adoption of the general online ordering platform.
Broader Inventory Offerings
One of the major components to the entire online grocery delivery industry emerging
is serving non-major cities. Much like has been observed in other verticals of eCom-
merce, by serving rural parts of India, food and grocery providers can provide options
that are not readily available, which will bring consumers onto the platform that are
willing to test the experience of ordering online.
A report by Pwc on “fast moving consumer goods” pegs the number of consumers for
FMCG products in rural India at 700 million, or over double the entire population of
the US. Unfortunately many of the pure-play online grocers have yet to tap into these
markets due to the previously-mentioned lack of infrastructure, making lower tier cities
and less developed parts of India a potentially massive market for the future.
SURROUNDING INDUSTRIES
Future opportunities
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Payments Gateways
Currently cash on delivery
accounts for 60% of all
online retail payment me-
thods in India. India has a
high rate of payment failu-
res when it comes to eCommerce, with most
sites clocking in a 60-65% success rates. The
payments gateways have been largely domi-
nated by BillDesk, Techprocess, and CCA-
venue, however multiple companies have
emerged within the space over the past few
years including Citrus, EBS, KYash, Zaakpay,
PayU, GoCoin, 2Checkout, and Airpay.
ECommerce Platforms
Similar to how companies like SquareSpace
have risen to make starting an online business
easier than ever in the states, Indian compa-
nies will surely experience this in the near fu-
ture. Currently only 35% of businesses in India
offer online services, compared to an average
of 56% in other emerging, large economies.
Players within this space include companies
like Zepo, KartRocket, FreKart, SellMojo,
BuildaBazaar, as well industry titan Shopify.
Real Estate
Ecommerce accounts for 25-40% of all gra-
de A warehousing real estate in major met-
ro areas today., and almost 25% of the entire
country‘s warehousing demand was driven by
the eCommerce space. In 2014, eCommerce
related retail space exploded, as uptake in-
creased 7x YoY.
Large sized warehouses and storage spaces
are driving demand in and around India’s ma-
jor cities, while office spaces due to the nearly
50,000 employment opportunities created by
the eCommece industry will also face increa-
sed demand. As tier 2 and tier 3 cities come
online, the surrounding real estate could be-
come in demand at a disproportionate level
to residential real estate as major eCommerce
providers look to hub and spoke their way into
the rest of India’s population. These trends
paired with the greenlighting of REITs and IITs
in 2014 should allow for significantly increased
real estate and infrastructure investment over
the next 5-7 years.
Mobile Infrastructure
Internet of Things
Verifiable Digital Identity
Background Check Technology
Logistics Management SaaS
Drones
Other Opportunities
There are multiple areas of opportunity for players servicing and surrounding the on-
line grocery delivery industry, as well as the broader eCommerce space. Below are a
few notable industries that
are primed to benefit
from the ongoing boom
in India.
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Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry
W
ith all of this data, what can we
gather about the overall state of
India’s online grocery delivery in-
dustry?
First, the entire country is still in what I be-
lieve is the beginning of a technological re-
volution. This revolution was initially fueled
by mobile Internet adoption, and further
enabled by investors clamoring at the op-
portunity of a country with nearly the same
amount of Internet users as the US, and over
700 million more who are still left to come on-
line. And while I believe that a large number
of those investors will get the returns they
seek, at times I wonder how quickly the inf-
rastructure needed will actually come online.
For all of the drivers of future growth (Internet
penetration, infrastructure projects buoyed
by a business-focused Prime Minister, rising
middle class, an upcoming influx in FDI in real
estate) India still has poor income disparity
and a low literacy rate (~63%, with women
at just 51%). India’s tech industry, and more
specifically the online grocery delivery indus-
try, will need these issues resolved in order
to capture the market size that investors have
lusted after while piling money into the coun-
try. Unfortunately, economic growth might
not be the cure-all for these problems.
The online grocery delivery industry is cur-
rently both small and fragmented. No com-
pany has crossed $100M in revenue and many
of the larger entities are just now getting their
feet wet due to doubts of long-term sustain-
ability.
This may lead many to tout the marketplace
model as the best option, however I believe
that this industry will be won on a city-by-ci-
ty basis in the near future. Pure-play online
grocers like BigBasket and LocalBanya could
win in tier 1 cities such as Mumbai, Bangalore,
and Delhi, while less economically-developed
cities with higher fragmentation will benefit
more from the marketplace model.
With the widespread fragmentation, I won-
der if consolidation will occur. Flipkart looms,
and has yet to make any noticeable impact
on grocery delivery thus far. Could other ma-
jor players or private equity investors seek to
roll-up these entities to create better econo-
mies of scale? And if so, will they be the ones
to ultimately solve capturing the middle class
on both an economic and infrastructure ba-
sis, a problem that has gone unsolved in the
United States?
Largely, these questions will answer them-
selves in due time. As of now I believe the
safest opportunities exist in the surrounding
industries detailed above, such as payments
gateways or logistics management.
However the winners in the long-term will be
companies that can build a sustainable lar-
ge-scale business that meets the needs of
one of the world‘s most dynamically changing
economies.
CONCLUSION
“The winners in the long-term will be companies that can build a
sustainable large-scale business that meets the needs of one of the
world‘s most dynamically changing economies.“
Thank you.
Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry
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Appendix I - Company List
India‘s Grocery Delivery Company List
Website Foods Cities Operating In
www.aaloo.in Domestic Mumbai
www.localbanya.com Domestic & Imported Mumbai, Pune, Thane
www.eemli.com Domestic & Imported, local fresh fruits and vegetables Mumbai
www.bigbasket.com Domestic & Imported Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad
www.naturesbasket.co.in Domestic & Imported Mumbai, New Delhi/NCR, Hyderabad, Pune
www.fishvish.com Fresh seafood Pune
www.rationhut.com Domestic Pune
www.mygrahak.in Domestic & Imported Delhi
www.dilligrocery.com Domestic Delhi
www.eazygrocery.com Domestic Delhi
www.onekirana.com Domestic Delhi
www.easyration.com Domestic & Imported Delhi
www.grocerywalk.com Domestic Delhi
www.gopeppers.com Domestic & Imported Delhi
www.get929.com Domestic Delhi
www.homefills.com Domestic Delhi
www.yzury.com Domestic & Imported Delhi
www.farmerzden.com Domestic Delhi
www.tazastuff.com Domestic Chandigarh
www.zopnow.com Domestic & Imported Bangalore
www.towness.com Domestic & Imported Bangalore
www.jiffstore.com Domestic Bangalore
www.vokav.com Domestic Bangalore
www.momgrocery.com Domestic Bangalore
www.irely.in Domestic & Imported Bangalore
www.kiranawalla.com Domestic Bangalore
www.youmart.com Domestic Bangalore
www.chennaionlinegrocery.com Domestic Chennai
www.veggibazaar.com Fresh Produce Chennai
www.kovaigrocery.com Domestic Coimbatore
www.kada.in Domestic Trivandrum
www.homespices.com Spices Hyderabad
www.grocerszone.com Domestic Hyderabad
http://store.perigreensafefoods.com/ Domestic Hyderabad
www.foodshoppy.com Domestic Hyderabad
www.andhrakart.com Domestic Andhra Pradesh
www.saltnsoap.com Domestic Kolkatta
www.familykar.com Domestic & Imported Delhi, Gurgaon, Noida
www.punexpress.com Domestic & Imported Pune
www.farm2kitchen.com Organic Products Delivery across India
https://daily.ebay.in Imported Delivery across India
www.healthkart.com Health and wellness supplements Delivery across India
www.homeshop18.com/groceries/ Domestic Delivery across India
www.organicgarden.co.in/ Organic Products Delivery across India
Source: @mhdempsey, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
17
by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me
Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry
Appendix II - Sources/Further Reading
Asia/India Tech Specific
http://www.nextbigwhat.com/online-grocery-market-in-india-report-297/
http://knowledge.sunstone.in/ecommerce-in-india-vs-other-geographies/
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-06-05/news/50359137_1_grocery-delivery-service-
home-delivery-online-grocery-stores
http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/online-grocery-shopping-vegetables-new-trend-in-
india/1/197141.html
http://qz.com/218169/big-retail-cant-compete-with-indias-corner-shops-but-online-grocery-sites-
have-a-chance/
http://qz.com/214306/indias-modern-retailers-are-bleeding-money-trying-to-beat-corner-stores/
http://www.just-food.com/management-briefing/indias-fledgling-food-e-retail-scene_id128876.aspx
http://asia.nikkei.com/print/article/64593
http://www.translatemedia.com/us/blog-us/rise-of-online-grocery-shopping-in-emerging-markets/
http://www.businessinsider.in/This-E-grocery-Start-up-Uses-A-Lean-Model-For-Its-Online-
Supermarket-In-Talks-To-Raise-Series-BFunding/articleshow/31184822.cms
http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/11/18/billionaire-mukesh-ambanis-reliance-retail-makes-
quiet-entry-into-indias-e-commerce-sector/
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/11/26/india-internet-retail-idINKCN0JA27A20141126
http://www.omnichannelasia.com/sites/default/files/india_special_report_-_india_online_retail_
driving_realty_january_2015.pdf
https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/india-active-venture-capital-firms-2014/
https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/asia-ecommerce-venture-capital/
http://trak.in/tags/business/2014/06/30/top-10-saas-ecommerce-platforms-india/
http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/start-ups-challenege-to-online-payment-gateway-
segment/1/196305.html
http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Rise%20of%20Online%20Grocery%20
Retail_New%20Delhi_India_9-12-2014.pdf
http://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/publications/2014/evolution-of-e-commerce-in-india.pdf
http://www.slideshare.net/AccelIndiaVC/accel-partners-india-india-ecommerce-insights-march-2014
http://www.slideshare.net/bernardmoon/sparklabs-global-asia-ecommerce-report-2015
https://www.pwc.in/en_IN/in/assets/pdfs/rc-publications/innovation-in-fmcg.pdf
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Indian-women-will-fuel-3-billion-e-
shopping/articleshow/32755250.cms
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/drone360/2015/03/27/drone-delivery-china/
Macroeconomic
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/09/30/why-foreign-investment-still-
polarizes-india/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/09/18/india-wants-to-build-massive-digital-infrastructure-
to-cover-800-million-rural-citizens-by-2019/
http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/21/news/economy/india-china-fastest-growth/index.html?iid=EL
http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/23/news/economy/india-china-economy/
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/indias-gdp-to-grow-at-8-3-per-cent-
in-fy17-hsbc/articleshow/46650584.cms
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/RPQoGQAAhIP8ZwmECrChpK/India-to-have-213-million-mobile-
Internet-users-by-June-Rep.html
http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users-by-country/
http://www.fastcompany.com/3014123/fast-feed/by-2017-india-will-have-more-developers-than-the-us
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/02/daily-chart-5
http://www.prres.net/papers/Sonia%20_Real_Estate_Sector_The_India_Story.pdf
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101909588
http://www.joneslanglasalleblog.com/realestatecompass/real-estate/2014/12/indian-real-estate-2014-
wrapup-crystalgazing-2015/
http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31816&articlexml=NEW-REGIME-PLANS-TO-
INCREASE-WORKING-HOURS-Civil-05062014001084&Mode=1
http://www.theglobalist.com/10-facts-literacy-rates-in-india/
THE END
Follow me @mhdempsey
Email me at michael@michaeldempsey.me

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Delivering India - India's Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry

  • 1. DELIVERING INDIA Last Updated 03.30.2015 By: Michael Dempsey Email at: michael@michaeldempsey.me Tweet at: @mhdempsey INDIA‘s rising online grocery delivery industry An in-depth look at the macroeconomic factors, bu- siness models, and opportunities surrounding one of Asia‘s largest markets in tech.
  • 2. Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry 2 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me I n 2014 I started to notice an increase of venture capital investment in Asia going to eCommerce companies. That trend has only accelerated in 2015. In my previous role as an investment ana- lyst at a multi-strategy hedge fund I con- ducted research around global infrastruc- ture trends, and how they might affect businesses in select regions. I learned about India’s notoriously inefficient and fragmented infrastructure and logistics problems. As I started to dive deeper into the vari- ous ecosystems within Asia, I was drawn to the unique problems that were posed in some of the emerging tech markets, and how they affected one very specific market in India; food retail and grocery delivery. In the US, companies like Plated, Blue Apron, Instacart, Munchery, and Sprig, have raised significant capital from inves- tors. I couldn’t believe that some of the same business models and consumer be- havior wouldn’t be applicable to a massive market like India. And while on the surfa- ce it may seem as if we’ve seen that hap- pen, this isn‘t merely a case of US-based business models being ported to a large, emerging market. Something fundamen- tally different is happening in India. I set out on a mission to better under- stand this developing eCommerce space. In this report I’ve touched on how the in- troduction of technology around grocery delivery has affected Indian citizens, how macroeconomic trends could affect tech in India, as well as specific companies that could be important in this landscape for years to come. I’ve spent a fair amount of time at night reading as much as possible about this space and broader industry dynamics. I’ve tried to compile many different sets of data, add some analysis to that data, and frame an industry in its infancy for outsiders who may know nothing about it. I wanted to give the reader an overall look at the state of India’s online food retail and grocery delivery industry. And while I am no expert in the Indian market, I feel that I have accomplished my goal with this report. If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, or if you want to tell me why you think this is wrong or what I‘ve mis- sed, feel free to tweet or email me. INTRODUCTION “This isn‘t merely a case of US-based business models being ported to a large, emerging market. Something fundamentally different is happening in India.“
  • 3. 3 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry TABLE OF CONTENTS Macroeconomic trends Economic Growth 4 Population 5 Internet Infrastructure 6 Overall Statistics 7 INDIA‘s eCommerce Industry Grocery Delivery in India Why Is It Unique? 8 Penetration of Modern Retail 9 Customer Demographics 10 Business Models 11 Changing Customer Behavior 13 FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES & CONCLUSION Surrounding Industries 14 Conclusion 15 Appendix I - List of Companies 16 Appendix II - Further Reading/Sources 17
  • 4. I ndia is now projected to be the fastest growing large economy in the world per the IMF, with a projected growth rate of over 7% for the fiscal year of 2015, with others pro- jecting GDP growth of 8%+ in the coming years. And while the boom in GDP growth has its skeptics who believe that the overall impact of “under-the-radar” workers is over- stated, larger macroeconomic trends are at play. These trends include largely weaker currencies vs. the stable Rupee, eased inflation, fal- ling oil prices (important for an economy that imports ~80% of its oil), as well as a new corporation and globalization-focused Prime Minister in Narendra Modi. Specifically Modi has focused on increasing the foreign direct investment in India. For a country that just started allowing FDI in 1991, and still has moderately strict caps on FDI in certain industries, this could be huge. Sonal Pandya of the University of Virginia descri- bed the effects of FDI on a variety of sectors best, with this quote: “The textbook case for FDI can be summarized in two words: technology transfer. The multinational corporations that undertake FDI are among the world’s most productive firms. These firms introduce their cutting edge technologies and production practices into the countries in which they invest. In the ideal case, FDI increases demand for skilled workers and, eventually, their technologies ‘spill over’ into the local economy.” Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry 4 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me ECONOMIC GROWTH MACROECONOMIC TRENDS
  • 5. Another key statistic working in India’s favor is their population. While rival economies like China, saw their workforce shrink in the past few years, over half of India’s 1.25 bil- lion population is under the age of 25, while over 65% are below the age of 35. With a median age of 27 years old in 2014, and an expected median age of 29 in 2020, India will be the youngest country in the world in the near future. The young median age is also aided by the high number of software engineers. Cur- rently India trails only the US with 2.75 million to the US’ 3.6 million, however India is projected to surpass the US by 2017, as the number of software engineers is expected to grow 90% to 5.2M vs. the US’ 4.5M. With a large number of young people for the forseeable future, and an incredibly deep talent pool of engineers, internet penetration is another major factor for the overall Indian tech scene. 5 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry A YOUNG POPULATION MACROECONOMIC TRENDS
  • 6. Key Points • Low overall penetration • Massive user growth and potential user base. • High mobile adoption • High cost of access and usage India only has 19% of their population on the Internet. This figure grew 14% last year (a high figure considering Uganda was tied for the most growth at 17%). The chart above indicates that the entire ecosystem reached escape velocity around 2010, which was driven at least in part by mobile penetration in the country. Mobile Internet users are expected to reach 213 million by June 2015, and there were ~935 million mobile connections in October 2014, equating to a little over 4 connections per user. The general increase of Internet users in India is often attributed to the rise of mobile technology. Previously the costs and subsequently the barriers to entry for Internet access was too high with computers. In fact, the $61 per MBps (on a PPP basis) gives India one of the highest median costs for broadband Internet access, more than 4x that of China, Brazil, and Argentina. Initiatives to develop low-priced mobile devices like the Aakash tablet, have enabled users in both major cities such as Mumbai, Delhi, and Bangalore as well as tier 2 and 3 cities to come online quickly. There are projects being proposed that could even more dramatically increase In- ternet coverage in India over the next 3-5 years, which would further accelerate the potential markets for broader eCommerce in the country. Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry 6 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me INTERNET INFRASTRUCTURE MACROECONOMIC TRENDS
  • 7. W ith increased Internet penetration in India, eCommerce has grown drasti- cally in recent years. Some are comparing India’s eCommerce market to- day, to China’s in the mid-2000’s, as China had only 8-10% of Internet users transacting online just a few years ago, but now sees nearly 35% today. Paired with a similarly unorganized retail structure, this makes for a great comparison as many value propositions are aligned. Accel Partners India has a slideshow detailing some broader ecommerce trends. Spar- kLabs Global also released a report about eCommerce in Asia. Both are incredibly informative views into this large market. A few key points from the Accel report: • Online shopping of physical goods will grow to $8.5B in 2016 • 60% of Internet users visit eCommerce sites • eCommerce only accounts for 0.2% of all retail • Conversion rates should increase to China-esque levels of 3.5%, as some goods in tier 2 and tier 3 cities are simply not available locally It’s worth noting that Accel Partners is one of the most active VCs in India, with a slew of high profile eCommerce bets, including now-merged Flipkart and Myntra, as well as Big Tree Entertainment and Bluestone.com. They also just raised their fourth India-fo- cused fund, at $305M. On the funding front, overall Asian eCommerce funding reached $11.5B on 367 finan- cings per CB Insights data in 2014, up 312% on a funding basis and 59% on a deals basis. India’s eCommerce industry accounted for 29% of those deals, while funding surpassed $3B on the year. 7 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry OVERALL STATISTICS ecommerce in india
  • 8. W hile many US and European online food and grocery delivery companies have raised billions of dollars from VCs over the past few years, the Indian market is incredibly different and unique. Key Traits • India is the 6th largest grocery market in the world • Only 5-8% of grocery stores are organized corporations. The vast majority are “mom & pop” type shops that are similar to convenience stores in the US and are re- ferred to as “kiranas” • The online grocery market is growing at 25-30% annually in metropolitan areas and large cities • Margins are below 10% • 43% of the country’s roads are not suitable for vehicles. Paired with checkpoints, and duty collection points that slow down traffic, infrastructure is an obstacle In the US, while it is a mild inconvenience to drive/walk to the grocery store, park, shop for yourself, load up your car, and drive home, it is very doable in almost every city and town across the country. In India it is magnitudes more difficult, time consuming, and even could be considered impossible at some times. India’s infrastructure and overcrowded major cities make it a nightmare for in and out shopping. In a variety of the major cities, there are very few parking lots for grocery sto- res, and the prohibitive traffic makes the time commitment and risk even higher when driving to crowded city centers that feature more full-service grocery stores or modern retailers. However, while the infrastructure makes it difficult for consumers to get to the grocery stores, the poor driving conditions and unsuitable roads, make consistent and stable delivery service a struggle. This has led to a high number of consumer comp- laints revolving around delivery timing for this still emerging industry. While the city infrastructure is a challenge, the industry infrastructure is as well. As stated above, only 5-8% of all grocery stores in the country are organized corporations or entities. This not only makes it difficult for service providers to win large contracts with a chain, similar to what Instacart has done with Whole Foods, but it also changes overall market dynamics as Indian shoppers are rarely tied to a larger brand for their food purchases. This has led to a push from the tech companies to try and facilitate better organization and back-end technology for the kiranas. Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry 8 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me WHY IS IT UNIQUE? GROCERY DELIVERY IN India
  • 9. Unlike the US, India does not have the same level of “modern retail” penetration where consumers travel to a mega-store like Walmart to purchase all of their goods. While modern retail has started to gain traction in recent years, food & grocery, a segment where companies like Walmart and Tesco derive over 50% of their revenue from glo- bally, has been the least penetrated. And even while that penetration is modestly increasing, the major players are getting killed. Estimates peg losses for the 10 largest players including Best Price Modern Wholesale (Walmart owned), Metro Cash & Carry India (Metro AG), Aditya Birla Re- tail, Bharti Retail, Reliance Fresh, and Trent Hypermarket at $2.2B in 2013-14. Despite growing revenues from $500M in 2008 to $4B in 2014, it is projected that losses will continue to increase. Both penetration and mounting losses spell a huge problem for these modern retailers hoping to build sustainable businesses and topple the mom and pop stores in India, a market where 70% of the over $500B in retail trade comes from food. But maybe in the way that India largely skipped the PC revolution, they will do the same with modern retail and go directly to eCommerce. 9 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry MODERN RETAIL GROCERY DELIVERY IN India
  • 10. The online grocery delivery market in India has some very unique demographic stati- stics that have risen out of a new shopping method for the country including: • Women ages 30-35 are the largest adopters of online grocery shopping • 68% of all users on major e-grocer LocalBanya.com are women • 14% of LocalBanya’s customers are senior citizens • 11% of orders are done in 10pm - midnight slot. Previously unattainable • Institutional clients make up 29% of orders for select major retailers The prevalence of women online emerged in India’s eCommerce industry. It is projec- ted that women-influenced sales will be 35% of Indian eCommerce by 2016. This is a massive departure from brick-and-mortar sales, which are dominated by men across all industries. The rise of women in eCommerce has been attributed largely to conve- nience, as well as increased privacy and safety. Online grocers have been able to target a niche by offering later delivery windows than many traditional grocery stores. Currently, 11% of orders are for delivery during the 10pm – 12am time slot, which was previously unattainable for customers. This offering comes at a time when Narendra Modi has spoken about extending work hours to 8 pm from 6 pm for government officials, while overall workers in India feel they are working longer hours than in previous years. Larger online grocers have also been able to attract a high number of institutional clients from restaurants to corporations to other organizations that require groceries in bulk. As some of the larger online grocers continue to white label consumer diet staples, restaurant purchasing could even increase further. The middle class is also expanding in India and will be the 3rd largest middle class in the world in 2020, and the largest in the world in 2030. This will lead to a growing number of consumers that buy groceries, but begin to calculate a time-value analysis as their wealth grows. These consumers will subsequently find that grocery shopping via the Internet is a high value-add service. Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry 10 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me CUSTOMER DEMOGRAPHICS UNDERSTANDING THE CUSTOMER
  • 11. Pure-play online grocery retailers are at the forefront of the boom in grocery eCommerce, which has over tripled in size by number of players year-over-year from under 15 in 2013 to over 40 in 2014. These companies build large warehouses and distribution centers outside of major cities and own fleets of GPS-enabled ve- hicles in order to serve online demand. BigBasket and LocalBanya are the main players and use the “hub and spoke” mo- del to build out their areas of coverage. Advantages to this model include lower real estate costs (as they are able to set up just outside of major cities), a broader range of products stocked, and a better overall customer experience versus tradi- tional grocery shopping in India. By aggre- gating demand and data around purcha- sing, these companies are also able to use their buying power to their advantage. For example, to counter an already slim operating margin, some of the pure-play companies have started to offer private label bulk goods. Main staples such as rice and spices are being bought in bulk from suppliers and sold for a higher mar- gin under the e-retailer’s private label. Companies like LocalBanya are negoti- ating with various agricultural co-ops for direct purchases. The company is also looking at commissioning the production of fruit and fresh produce, while also ex- perimenting with programs that can trans- port fresh fish and meat directly to their distribution centers to offer better quality goods than traditional grocers. This is a key differentiator as a large percentage of the “market fish” in India contains preser- vatives and are of a lesser quality. Compa- nies such as SeaToHome.com have even emerged to try to vertically serve these niches. One of the key struggles for this model is the logistics management for their or- dering systems and subsequently their customer service. For all of the reasons that make online grocery delivery benefi- cial for consumers in India, they also make the logistics very difficult. Because of this, one of the initial KPIs for many of these companies has been the percentage of orders that arrive on time. While the broader food retail market com- plains that pure-play companies are me- rely winning on discounts, they continue to take market share and have drawn inte- rest of larger players, including Grodrej’s’ purchase of Ekstop for ~$7M in Feb. 2015. Business Traits • Online grocery retail outlets have in- creased 3x+ YoY • Lower utilities and real estate costs • Broader product offering • Higher quality via farm to market Major Players • Big Basket - $33.7M revenue • Local Banya - $11.8M revenue • Reliance Fresh Direct 11 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry PURE-PLAY ONLINE ONLY GROCERY DELIVERY BUSINESS MODELS
  • 12. Marketplace Provider companies provide a front-end and logistics management service for smaller chains, as well as inde- pendent grocers for a recurring monthly or annual fee. These companies are most comparable to Instacart in the US. Pep- pertap, which raised $1.2M from Sequoia Capital, as well as AaramShop are two of the notable independent companies in this space, while larger players like Ama- zon and Tradus have entered as well. The Marketplace business model has been praised due to its lack of inventory investment, however these companies still cannot interface with smaller mom and pop grocers due to their need for an organized back-end to properly manage the inventory on the front-end. Marketplace companies like AaramShop have also used local data aggregation to offer consumers a previously unseen pri- cing index. On AaramShop‘s platform, consumers can search for a specific food item and find the best deal across all par- ticipating retailers. Amazon recently launched “Kirana Now” in its first test market, Bengaluru. Amazon intends for grocers to upload their catalo- gue, and then provide integration with a third party logistics provider for delivery within 2-4 hours. The biggest issue with this continues to be the lack of back-end infrastructure in many kiranas. However, Amazon may be best positioned to solve this problem due to its logistics expertise. Marketplace players also face competiti- on from companies like Grofers (another Sequoia investment), which are more ge- neral “on-demand” platforms and could be used for similar food and grocery deli- very tasks, a la Postmates in the US. In addition, the value of the pricing, purchasing and behavior data that mar- ketplace providers can gather over time may be equal to the value of the ser- vice-side business. Entire companies like Premise Data have been built around this concept, but at a much larger scale. Others Larger companies like Amazon (outside of Kirana Now) and eBay offer select gour- met and non-perishable items. Many are skeptical of this model, as consumers look to fill their entire order at once online. Smaller grocers have also attempted to build an online presence. While their core competency within delivery remains via phone, it is likely that there will be a shift for mom and pop stores in major cities to have an online ordering system in place in the next 5 years. Business Traits • Charge grocery stores recurring fee. • Manage front-end and logistics • Asset-light business focused on fast delivery Major Players • AaramShop • Peppertap • Jiffstore • Amazon Kirana Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry 12 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me Marketplace Providers GROCERY DELIVERY BUSINESS MODELS
  • 13. HOW WILL IT CHANGE? customer behavior 13 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry Removing In-Person Shopping A high percentage of customers in major cities are already buying groceries without physically seeing them. In India, phone orders to Kiranas are somewhat commonplace, so changing that behavior is very different than how a company like Instacart has had to try to change the shopping behavior of many Americans. In addition to this, upstart companies can focus more on logistics and offerings, and less on UI and design, as sight and feel are less important to the Indian consumer in the grocery space. For those who still value in-person shopping, some of India’s largest eCommerce play- ers have tried to blur the line by using their overall eCommerce platform as a way to subtly change behavior. Amazon India and Snapdeal both have added food and gour- met categories to their platforms. These categories are aimed at converting existing customers to online grocery shoppers, while providing an easy and lightweight beha- vioral shift over time that coincides with other online purchases. A Better UX and Marketplace Haggling is commonplace in many kiranas and markets in India. Online ordering remo- ves that entire process and allows for better forecasting on the provider side, as well as a more consistent experience on the consumer side. In addition to a potentially less stressful experience, analytics around shopping behavi- or continue to provide huge utility to shoppers, in the form of increased ease of re-or- dering, or better pricing transparency. While phone ordering and subsequent delivery has been prevalent in previous years, the ability to easily re-order in less time due to a web interface and data analytics will create loyalty to a specific provider and increased adoption of the general online ordering platform. Broader Inventory Offerings One of the major components to the entire online grocery delivery industry emerging is serving non-major cities. Much like has been observed in other verticals of eCom- merce, by serving rural parts of India, food and grocery providers can provide options that are not readily available, which will bring consumers onto the platform that are willing to test the experience of ordering online. A report by Pwc on “fast moving consumer goods” pegs the number of consumers for FMCG products in rural India at 700 million, or over double the entire population of the US. Unfortunately many of the pure-play online grocers have yet to tap into these markets due to the previously-mentioned lack of infrastructure, making lower tier cities and less developed parts of India a potentially massive market for the future.
  • 14. SURROUNDING INDUSTRIES Future opportunities Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry 14 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me Payments Gateways Currently cash on delivery accounts for 60% of all online retail payment me- thods in India. India has a high rate of payment failu- res when it comes to eCommerce, with most sites clocking in a 60-65% success rates. The payments gateways have been largely domi- nated by BillDesk, Techprocess, and CCA- venue, however multiple companies have emerged within the space over the past few years including Citrus, EBS, KYash, Zaakpay, PayU, GoCoin, 2Checkout, and Airpay. ECommerce Platforms Similar to how companies like SquareSpace have risen to make starting an online business easier than ever in the states, Indian compa- nies will surely experience this in the near fu- ture. Currently only 35% of businesses in India offer online services, compared to an average of 56% in other emerging, large economies. Players within this space include companies like Zepo, KartRocket, FreKart, SellMojo, BuildaBazaar, as well industry titan Shopify. Real Estate Ecommerce accounts for 25-40% of all gra- de A warehousing real estate in major met- ro areas today., and almost 25% of the entire country‘s warehousing demand was driven by the eCommerce space. In 2014, eCommerce related retail space exploded, as uptake in- creased 7x YoY. Large sized warehouses and storage spaces are driving demand in and around India’s ma- jor cities, while office spaces due to the nearly 50,000 employment opportunities created by the eCommece industry will also face increa- sed demand. As tier 2 and tier 3 cities come online, the surrounding real estate could be- come in demand at a disproportionate level to residential real estate as major eCommerce providers look to hub and spoke their way into the rest of India’s population. These trends paired with the greenlighting of REITs and IITs in 2014 should allow for significantly increased real estate and infrastructure investment over the next 5-7 years. Mobile Infrastructure Internet of Things Verifiable Digital Identity Background Check Technology Logistics Management SaaS Drones Other Opportunities There are multiple areas of opportunity for players servicing and surrounding the on- line grocery delivery industry, as well as the broader eCommerce space. Below are a few notable industries that are primed to benefit from the ongoing boom in India.
  • 15. 15 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry W ith all of this data, what can we gather about the overall state of India’s online grocery delivery in- dustry? First, the entire country is still in what I be- lieve is the beginning of a technological re- volution. This revolution was initially fueled by mobile Internet adoption, and further enabled by investors clamoring at the op- portunity of a country with nearly the same amount of Internet users as the US, and over 700 million more who are still left to come on- line. And while I believe that a large number of those investors will get the returns they seek, at times I wonder how quickly the inf- rastructure needed will actually come online. For all of the drivers of future growth (Internet penetration, infrastructure projects buoyed by a business-focused Prime Minister, rising middle class, an upcoming influx in FDI in real estate) India still has poor income disparity and a low literacy rate (~63%, with women at just 51%). India’s tech industry, and more specifically the online grocery delivery indus- try, will need these issues resolved in order to capture the market size that investors have lusted after while piling money into the coun- try. Unfortunately, economic growth might not be the cure-all for these problems. The online grocery delivery industry is cur- rently both small and fragmented. No com- pany has crossed $100M in revenue and many of the larger entities are just now getting their feet wet due to doubts of long-term sustain- ability. This may lead many to tout the marketplace model as the best option, however I believe that this industry will be won on a city-by-ci- ty basis in the near future. Pure-play online grocers like BigBasket and LocalBanya could win in tier 1 cities such as Mumbai, Bangalore, and Delhi, while less economically-developed cities with higher fragmentation will benefit more from the marketplace model. With the widespread fragmentation, I won- der if consolidation will occur. Flipkart looms, and has yet to make any noticeable impact on grocery delivery thus far. Could other ma- jor players or private equity investors seek to roll-up these entities to create better econo- mies of scale? And if so, will they be the ones to ultimately solve capturing the middle class on both an economic and infrastructure ba- sis, a problem that has gone unsolved in the United States? Largely, these questions will answer them- selves in due time. As of now I believe the safest opportunities exist in the surrounding industries detailed above, such as payments gateways or logistics management. However the winners in the long-term will be companies that can build a sustainable lar- ge-scale business that meets the needs of one of the world‘s most dynamically changing economies. CONCLUSION “The winners in the long-term will be companies that can build a sustainable large-scale business that meets the needs of one of the world‘s most dynamically changing economies.“ Thank you.
  • 16. Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry 16 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me Appendix I - Company List India‘s Grocery Delivery Company List Website Foods Cities Operating In www.aaloo.in Domestic Mumbai www.localbanya.com Domestic & Imported Mumbai, Pune, Thane www.eemli.com Domestic & Imported, local fresh fruits and vegetables Mumbai www.bigbasket.com Domestic & Imported Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad www.naturesbasket.co.in Domestic & Imported Mumbai, New Delhi/NCR, Hyderabad, Pune www.fishvish.com Fresh seafood Pune www.rationhut.com Domestic Pune www.mygrahak.in Domestic & Imported Delhi www.dilligrocery.com Domestic Delhi www.eazygrocery.com Domestic Delhi www.onekirana.com Domestic Delhi www.easyration.com Domestic & Imported Delhi www.grocerywalk.com Domestic Delhi www.gopeppers.com Domestic & Imported Delhi www.get929.com Domestic Delhi www.homefills.com Domestic Delhi www.yzury.com Domestic & Imported Delhi www.farmerzden.com Domestic Delhi www.tazastuff.com Domestic Chandigarh www.zopnow.com Domestic & Imported Bangalore www.towness.com Domestic & Imported Bangalore www.jiffstore.com Domestic Bangalore www.vokav.com Domestic Bangalore www.momgrocery.com Domestic Bangalore www.irely.in Domestic & Imported Bangalore www.kiranawalla.com Domestic Bangalore www.youmart.com Domestic Bangalore www.chennaionlinegrocery.com Domestic Chennai www.veggibazaar.com Fresh Produce Chennai www.kovaigrocery.com Domestic Coimbatore www.kada.in Domestic Trivandrum www.homespices.com Spices Hyderabad www.grocerszone.com Domestic Hyderabad http://store.perigreensafefoods.com/ Domestic Hyderabad www.foodshoppy.com Domestic Hyderabad www.andhrakart.com Domestic Andhra Pradesh www.saltnsoap.com Domestic Kolkatta www.familykar.com Domestic & Imported Delhi, Gurgaon, Noida www.punexpress.com Domestic & Imported Pune www.farm2kitchen.com Organic Products Delivery across India https://daily.ebay.in Imported Delivery across India www.healthkart.com Health and wellness supplements Delivery across India www.homeshop18.com/groceries/ Domestic Delivery across India www.organicgarden.co.in/ Organic Products Delivery across India Source: @mhdempsey, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
  • 17. 17 by @mhdempsey | michaeldempsey.me Delivering India | India‘s Rising Online Grocery Delivery Industry Appendix II - Sources/Further Reading Asia/India Tech Specific http://www.nextbigwhat.com/online-grocery-market-in-india-report-297/ http://knowledge.sunstone.in/ecommerce-in-india-vs-other-geographies/ http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-06-05/news/50359137_1_grocery-delivery-service- home-delivery-online-grocery-stores http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/online-grocery-shopping-vegetables-new-trend-in- india/1/197141.html http://qz.com/218169/big-retail-cant-compete-with-indias-corner-shops-but-online-grocery-sites- have-a-chance/ http://qz.com/214306/indias-modern-retailers-are-bleeding-money-trying-to-beat-corner-stores/ http://www.just-food.com/management-briefing/indias-fledgling-food-e-retail-scene_id128876.aspx http://asia.nikkei.com/print/article/64593 http://www.translatemedia.com/us/blog-us/rise-of-online-grocery-shopping-in-emerging-markets/ http://www.businessinsider.in/This-E-grocery-Start-up-Uses-A-Lean-Model-For-Its-Online- Supermarket-In-Talks-To-Raise-Series-BFunding/articleshow/31184822.cms http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/11/18/billionaire-mukesh-ambanis-reliance-retail-makes- quiet-entry-into-indias-e-commerce-sector/ http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/11/26/india-internet-retail-idINKCN0JA27A20141126 http://www.omnichannelasia.com/sites/default/files/india_special_report_-_india_online_retail_ driving_realty_january_2015.pdf https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/india-active-venture-capital-firms-2014/ https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/asia-ecommerce-venture-capital/ http://trak.in/tags/business/2014/06/30/top-10-saas-ecommerce-platforms-india/ http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/start-ups-challenege-to-online-payment-gateway- segment/1/196305.html http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Rise%20of%20Online%20Grocery%20 Retail_New%20Delhi_India_9-12-2014.pdf http://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/publications/2014/evolution-of-e-commerce-in-india.pdf http://www.slideshare.net/AccelIndiaVC/accel-partners-india-india-ecommerce-insights-march-2014 http://www.slideshare.net/bernardmoon/sparklabs-global-asia-ecommerce-report-2015 https://www.pwc.in/en_IN/in/assets/pdfs/rc-publications/innovation-in-fmcg.pdf http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Indian-women-will-fuel-3-billion-e- shopping/articleshow/32755250.cms http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/drone360/2015/03/27/drone-delivery-china/ Macroeconomic http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/09/30/why-foreign-investment-still- polarizes-india/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/09/18/india-wants-to-build-massive-digital-infrastructure- to-cover-800-million-rural-citizens-by-2019/ http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/21/news/economy/india-china-fastest-growth/index.html?iid=EL http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/23/news/economy/india-china-economy/ http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/indias-gdp-to-grow-at-8-3-per-cent- in-fy17-hsbc/articleshow/46650584.cms http://www.livemint.com/Politics/RPQoGQAAhIP8ZwmECrChpK/India-to-have-213-million-mobile- Internet-users-by-June-Rep.html http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users-by-country/ http://www.fastcompany.com/3014123/fast-feed/by-2017-india-will-have-more-developers-than-the-us http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/02/daily-chart-5 http://www.prres.net/papers/Sonia%20_Real_Estate_Sector_The_India_Story.pdf http://www.cnbc.com/id/101909588 http://www.joneslanglasalleblog.com/realestatecompass/real-estate/2014/12/indian-real-estate-2014- wrapup-crystalgazing-2015/ http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31816&articlexml=NEW-REGIME-PLANS-TO- INCREASE-WORKING-HOURS-Civil-05062014001084&Mode=1 http://www.theglobalist.com/10-facts-literacy-rates-in-india/
  • 18. THE END Follow me @mhdempsey Email me at michael@michaeldempsey.me