1. #noestimates
why going against the tide
cannot bring you
anything good!
info@massimoiacolare.it
@iacoware
Massimo Iacolare
linkedin

2. Massimo Iacolare
co-founder of
the awesome
freelance
.net and js expert
love shipping features
love making users happy
quality addicted

3. Estimating sucks!

4. Estimating sucks!
End of story

5. Estimating sucks!
End of story
Questions?

6. #noestimates
‣Woody Zuill started
the hashtag on twitter
‣nothing new, just a
new (bigger) wave
‣lot of buzz, lately
If you found estimates bring no value what would you do?

7. nitpicker corner

8. nitpicker corner
#noestimates it’s an
invitation, a challenge

9. nitpicker corner
#noestimates it’s an
invitation, a challenge
…it doesn’t literally mean never use estimates!
The trouble with #noestimates

10. Why so interested?

11. Software
development
…and why estimating (really) sucks!
Part 1

12. no best practices
social interactions
learning activity
integration

13. non deterministic
no best practices
social interactions
learning activity
integration

14. Cynefin framework

15. Cynefin framework

16. Cynefin framework
Predictable

17. Cynefin framework
Emergent Predictable

18. ok, understood!
lets get back
to estimates

19. Unreliable: adj

20. Unreliable: adj
not able to be
relied upon,
untrustwhorty

21. Asked at the beginning of a project

22. Asked at the beginning of a project
Someone said cone of uncertainty?

23. Asked at the beginning of a project
Someone said cone of uncertainty?
projectknowledge
time
cone of uncertainty

24. Cost of a feature =

25. Cost of a feature =
Essential
complexity +

26. Cost of a feature =
Essential
complexity
Accidental
complexity+
from “No silver bullet” Fred Brooks, 1995

28. How much time do you
need to add “XYZ”?

29. How much time do you
need to add “XYZ”?

30. Cognitive biases

31. Cognitive biases
Optimism bias

32. Cognitive biases
Optimism bias
Anchoring bias

33. Cognitive biases
Optimism bias
Anchoring bias
Loss aversion

34. Cognitive biases
Optimism bias
Anchoring bias
Availability bias
Selective perception
Loss aversion
List of cognitive biases

35. My point is…
if you’re rigorous and determined
you can make them work…
well “kind of”

36. My point is…
if you’re rigorous and determined
you can make them work…
well “kind of”
Worth the effort?

37. My point is…
if you’re rigorous and determined
you can make them work…
well “kind of”
Worth the effort?
Are they a a mean or a goal?

38. Part 2
Why?

39. Historical reasons

40. Historical reasons
management techniques
derived from traditional
businesses

41. Management science’s impossible quest: in search of predictability
The impossible
quest for
predictability

42. Prioritization

43. Prioritization
estimates == prioritise on costs

44. Prioritization
estimates == prioritise on costs
learning should be your
first priority
Introducing deliberate discovery

45. Delivery date

46. Delivery date
order-of-magnitude
estimates are enough

47. Delivery date
order-of-magnitude
estimates are enough
fixed-time fixed-budget
more common and useful

48. Part 3
the

49. Few assumptions

50. Few assumptions
‣ Relevant parts sits in the
Complex Domain
‣ Unpredictable business
‣ Detailed planning won’t save us

51. Few assumptions
‣ Relevant parts sits in the
Complex Domain
‣ Unpredictable business
‣ Detailed planning won’t save us
Few ideas…

52. Establish a tight
feedback loop
at all levels: tdd, continuous
delivery, customer

53. Establish a tight
feedback loop
at all levels: tdd, continuous
delivery, customer
only thing that works in
emergent domains

54. Just enough planning

55. Just enough planning
Just-in-time planning

56. Just enough planning
Just-in-time planning
context changed
assumptions debunked
more knowledge

57. Just enough planning
Just-in-time planning
context changed
assumptions debunked
more knowledge
explore new options

58. Iterate like there
is no tomorrow

59. Iterate like there
is no tomorrow
working in iterations doesn’t
mean iterating
Embrace uncertainty

60. Become a master
in slicing scope
Login Catalog Add to cart Checkout

61. Become a master
in slicing scope
you’ll meet deadlines too!
Login Catalog Add to cart Checkout

63. estimate less
code more

64. Thanks
Questions?
info@massimoiacolare.it
@iacoware
Massimo Iacolare
linkedin

65. I stand on the shoulders of giants
Woody Zuill blog
Vasco Duarte blog
Neil Killick blog
AgileCamp perfect flow - Gabriele Lana part1 - ITA
AgileCamp perfect flow - Gabriele Lana part2 - ITA
Estimation is the root of most software project failures
Stop using story points
The perils of estimation
…and many, many more. Thank you all!