By 2016, VR was the definitive tech media darling, promising the ability to not just replicate an experience, but to convince people of the validity of alternate realities. Venture funding flowed, content studios proliferated, and hardware launch dates were eagerly anticipated. Fast forward to 2017 and the equipment is still bulky and expensive, UX issues like nausea persist, and key immersive elements like haptic feedback and social interaction are still primitive. While some experiences are transformative, others underwhelm; market reports vary wildly on future investment and revenue projections. So where exactly are we in the simulated reality hype cycle? Read the full article here: http://www.luminary-labs.com/insight/in-pursuit-of-reality/

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in pursuit of
REALITY
Kate Machtiger & Michelle ShevinLuminary Labs | June 2017

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Since the earliest cave paintings,
humans have tried to represent their
reality.

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With each new tool, the accuracy of
this representation has improved:
seeing believingexperiencing

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So, where are we today?

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First, the basics

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What are AR and VR?

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Reality
The real world.

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Augmented reality
A blending of virtual and real life, allowing users
to interact with virtual elements in the real world
(also known as mixed reality).

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Virtual reality
A fabricated, immersive virtual world, isolated
from the real world.

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The virtual and augmented reality
market is growing.

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2016 revenue: $6 billion
2020 revenue: $143 billion*
*per IDC estimates
Hardware, software, third-party applications, consulting services, and integration services.

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Many will tell you our virtual
future is here...

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QUARTZ
VOGUE UK
BUSINESS INSIDER
THE GUARDIAN
FRESH BUSINESS THINKING

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Others are not so sure...

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PATENTLY APPLE
NEW YORK TIMES
THE VERGE
WALL STREET JOURNAL
RE/CODE

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So where are we really?

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Early adoption
Wide adoption
We are here
Holdout adoption

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When will we hit the tipping point?

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When the technology facilitates not
just experience, but true belief:
seeing believingexperiencing

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How soon will it
happen?
History offers
clues.

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Seeing

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Early environments stretched the
imagination through the eyes.

23. 23Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia
1780s
Panorama paintings drew patrons into a round room where they were
surrounded by a floor-to-ceiling, 360-degree scene.
Art imitates life

24. 24Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia
The eyes play tricks
Dioramas allowed the audience to stay in one place while the scenery moved
in front of them. Lighting effects simulated movement and the passage of time.
1820s

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Seeing
Experiencing

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New contraptions affronted the
senses, but barriers between
virtual and real remained.

27. 27Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia
What’s your vector, Victor?
As new modes of transportation proliferated, simulators emerged as training
tools. Valves and pumps offered airplane pilots realistic dashboard readings,
while model cars measured drivers’ reaction times.
1920s

28. 28Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia
Watch n’ sniff
The Sensorama offered a new
paradigm of “realism” in
entertainment, bringing sight,
sound, smell, and temperature
together to create an entirely
artificial immersive experience.
However, the project failed to
capture the interest of the
movie industry, and ceased
before it could reach the
masses.
1950s

29. 29Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia
Hooked on a feeling
The first head-mounted display,
Ivan Sutherland’s “sword of
Damocles” hung precariously
from the ceiling. The contraption
allowed the visuals—a floating
cube within a wireframe room—
to shift with head movements.
1960s

30. 30Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia
Body language
Computer scientist Jaron Lanier
founded VPL, the first business to
sell VR products. Their motion-
tracking gloves and data suits
offered a way to interact with
virtual elements through
movements and gestures.
1980s

31. 31Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Dr. Waldern/Virtuality Group - Dr. Jonathan D. Waldern
Let the games begin
The first major commercial VR
devices, Virtuality headsets, joysticks,
and gloves used magnetic tracking to
simulate movements within a gaming
environment, offering a new level of
3D immersion for techies and arcade
goers.
1990s

32. 32Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Flickr user jdlasica
I am therefore iPod
The MyVu capitalized on video’s newfound portability, allowing users to watch
iPod videos projected in front of their eyes. It roughly simulated the experience
of watching a large-screen TV.
2006

33. 33Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia
Glass houses
Projecting an interactive display in front of the eyes, Google Glass supported
tasks like taking photos or checking messages. But the product failed to gain
traction with users and privacy fears scared away the public.
2013

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Seeing
Experiencing
Believing

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A range of technologies begin to
convince people of the validity
of alternate realities.

36. 36Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia
Was it all a dream?
Second Life’s avatar-driven experience went beyond pure entertainment,
letting people craft alternate lives in a full-fledged virtual world. With its own
currency, brands, and social interactions, Second Life came to supplant reality
for engrossed users.
1990s – 2000s

37. 37Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Flickr user Rafael Valentim
Hype machines
The Oculus Rift ushered in a new era of VR hype with a step change in
headset technology. Through motion tracking and powerful image displays
optimized for human eyes, the device allowed users to lose themselves in a
nearly-realistic 3D world.
2014 – 2015

38. 38Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Flickr user woodleywonderworks
On the road to Viridian City
Global AR phenomenon Pokémon
Go sent millions of smartphone
users in pursuit of virtual characters
superimposed onto real places. Its
popularity offered a glimpse into the
market potential for engaging AR
experiences.
2016

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Form follows function
As we develop the power to make virtual experiences more believable, it’s time
to go beyond entertainment and serve real needs. One early effort in this area is
the EdSim Challenge, which seeks VR/AR simulations that will prepare
America’s students for the future workforce.
2017

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What needs to happen
to make the hype real?

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5 crucial VR improvements are
on the horizon.

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Less nausea
Better blending of “virtual” and “real” will help
combat motion sickness. Even adding a virtual
“nose” has been shown to make a big
difference.

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Lower costs
High-quality VR headsets still cost hundreds of
dollars. But over the next few years, Tractica
estimates that prices will decline 15% per year.
$

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More portability
Today’s devices are often tethered or bulky.
Lighter mobile devices with better resolution
and battery life will generate new use cases
and improve the value proposition.

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Addition of social elements
Most experiences are currently solitary. Social
capabilities will uncover new applications for
VR/AR and encourage more prolonged use.

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Better exploration of safety
Wearing an isolating headset can come with
risks (e.g., walking into walls, tripping over
tethers, losing your balance). Furthermore,
scientists have yet to fully explore how VR
experiences affect mental development.

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What does this mean
for business leaders?

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A few questions to ask yourself...
Can today’s technology address a real problem in
my company?
Is my team or company strategy early-adopter or
wait-and-see?
What would the technology need to look like
before I invest?

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