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1 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
BILLIONAIRES
INSIGHTS
B
Are billionaires feeling the pressure?
2 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
A FEW WORDS ABOUT OUR RESEARCH
Following our first comprehensive reports on billionaire wealth
in 2015, we continue our investigation into this historic era of
wealth generation. This year we have analyzed data covering
1,397 billionaires and looking back two decades. Our database
includes the 14 largest billionaire markets, which account for
around 80% of global billionaire wealth. Further, we’ve con-
ducted over 20 interviews with billionaire advisors and further
face-to-face interviews with more than 30 billionaires and
approximately 30 of their heirs. UBS and PwC advise a large
number of the world’s wealthy and have unique insights into
their changing fortunes and needs.
For more information see our disclaimer on page 27.
3 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
CONTENTS
Introduction
5
Executive summary
7
The Gilded Age pauses: Volatility and intergenerational transfer
9
A 2.1 trillion dollar inheritance
15
Old legacies’ lessons for new billionaires
19
Outlook
25
4 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
5 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
5 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2015
mergence of new billionaires and intergenerational wealth
the “billionaire” status is a significant challenge.
eport, which analysed wealth creation, preservation and philanthropy, this report takes
population. Looking back 20 years, we surveyed 1,300 people in the 14 markets that
e wealth and compiled a comprehensive database on the world’s billionaire population.
naires outpaced their male peers, with their ranks and wealth growing at faster rates.
mpressive, over half of the female billionaire population is self-made, well ahead of
s.
GDP has almost tripled from $30 trillion to over $77 trillion. But the wealth of billionaires
ightfold, from $0.7 trillion in 1995 to $5.4 trillion in 2014.
billionaires have accumulated has skyrocketed, however, does not mean that all
aires surveyed in 1995, less than half were still on the list in 2014. Factors contributing
nclude death, dilution and business failure and serve as a reminder of the sometimes
on about how wealth can easily disappear. In Italy, it’s ‘from the stable to the stars
‘the father buys, the son builds, the grandchild sells, and his son begs.’ Avoiding
iority for many of the billionaires we studied. To preserve wealth over multiple genera-
e from the family’s kitchen table to the office’s boardroom. With the Baby Boomer
h transfer, the need for careful legacy planning, whether it be philanthropy,
bination of both, is vital.
he West and more like the general population of the world – more women and more
nger. That trend isn’t going to slow.
athews
ng Director
alth Management
s Ultra High Net Worth
Michael Spellacy
Partner
PwC US
Global Wealth Leader
Dr. Marcel Widrig
Partner
PwC Switzerland
Private Wealth Leader
5 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2015
Welcome to the UBS/PwC report on Billionaires: The changing faces of billionaires,
which reveals the evolving identity of the world’s billionaires over the last two decades.
Not only has the billionaire population become more diverse in terms of age, sex and
nationality through the emergence of new billionaires and intergenerational wealth
transfer, but maintaining the “billionaire” status is a significant challenge.
Building on our original Billionaire report, which analysed wealth creation, preservation and philanthropy, this report takes
a deeper look at today’s billionaire population. Looking back 20 years, we surveyed 1,300 people in the 14 markets that
account for 75% of global billionaire wealth and compiled a comprehensive database on the world’s billionaire population.
Over this time period, female billionaires outpaced their male peers, with their ranks and wealth growing at faster rates.
In Asia, where this growth is most impressive, over half of the female billionaire population is self-made, well ahead of
their US and European counterparts.
Over the last two decades, global GDP has almost tripled from $30 trillion to over $77 trillion. But the wealth of billionaires
in our study has increased almost eightfold, from $0.7 trillion in 1995 to $5.4 trillion in 2014.
Just because the amount of money billionaires have accumulated has skyrocketed, however, does not mean that all
billionaires benefited. Of the billionaires surveyed in 1995, less than half were still on the list in 2014. Factors contributing
to their loss of “billionaire” status include death, dilution and business failure and serve as a reminder of the sometimes
fleeting nature of wealth.
In every culture, there is an expression about how wealth can easily disappear. In Italy, it’s ‘from the stable to the stars
and back again’ and in Scotland it’s ‘the father buys, the son builds, the grandchild sells, and his son begs.’ Avoiding
the pitfalls in wealth transfer is a priority for many of the billionaires we studied. To preserve wealth over multiple genera-
tions, business decisions must move from the family’s kitchen table to the office’s boardroom. With the Baby Boomer
generation in the corridor of wealth transfer, the need for careful legacy planning, whether it be philanthropy,
intergenerational transfer or a combination of both, is vital.
The wealthy already look less like the West and more like the general population of the world – more women and more
diverse, in some cases skewing younger. That trend isn’t going to slow.
Josef Stadler
Group Managing Director
Head Global Ultra High
Net Worth
John Mathews
Managing Director
UBS Wealth Management
Americas Ultra High Net Worth
Michael Spellacy
Partner
PwC US
Global Wealth Leader
Dr. Marcel Widrig
Partner
PwC Switzerland
Private Wealth Leader
5 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2015
Welcome to the UBS/PwC report on Billionaires: The changing faces of billionaires,
which reveals the evolving identity of the world’s billionaires over the last two decades.
Not only has the billionaire population become more diverse in terms of age, sex and
nationality through the emergence of new billionaires and intergenerational wealth
ransfer, but maintaining the “billionaire” status is a significant challenge.
Building on our original Billionaire report, which analysed wealth creation, preservation and philanthropy, this report takes
deeper look at today’s billionaire population. Looking back 20 years, we surveyed 1,300 people in the 14 markets that
ccount for 75% of global billionaire wealth and compiled a comprehensive database on the world’s billionaire population.
Over this time period, female billionaires outpaced their male peers, with their ranks and wealth growing at faster rates.
n Asia, where this growth is most impressive, over half of the female billionaire population is self-made, well ahead of
heir US and European counterparts.
Over the last two decades, global GDP has almost tripled from $30 trillion to over $77 trillion. But the wealth of billionaires
n our study has increased almost eightfold, from $0.7 trillion in 1995 to $5.4 trillion in 2014.
ust because the amount of money billionaires have accumulated has skyrocketed, however, does not mean that all
billionaires benefited. Of the billionaires surveyed in 1995, less than half were still on the list in 2014. Factors contributing
o their loss of “billionaire” status include death, dilution and business failure and serve as a reminder of the sometimes
fleeting nature of wealth.
n every culture, there is an expression about how wealth can easily disappear. In Italy, it’s ‘from the stable to the stars
nd back again’ and in Scotland it’s ‘the father buys, the son builds, the grandchild sells, and his son begs.’ Avoiding
he pitfalls in wealth transfer is a priority for many of the billionaires we studied. To preserve wealth over multiple genera-
ions, business decisions must move from the family’s kitchen table to the office’s boardroom. With the Baby Boomer
generation in the corridor of wealth transfer, the need for careful legacy planning, whether it be philanthropy,
ntergenerational transfer or a combination of both, is vital.
he wealthy already look less like the West and more like the general population of the world – more women and more
diverse, in some cases skewing younger. That trend isn’t going to slow.
osef Stadler
Group Managing Director
Head Global Ultra High
Net Worth
John Mathews
Managing Director
UBS Wealth Management
Americas Ultra High Net Worth
Michael Spellacy
Partner
PwC US
Global Wealth Leader
Dr. Marcel Widrig
Partner
PwC Switzerland
Private Wealth Leader
ARE BILLIONAIRES FEELING THE PRESSURE?
We are about to witness the largest-ever transfer of billionaire wealth. We estimate that fewer than 500 people will hand over
USD 2.1 trillion to their heirs over the next 20 years. For most Asian economies, where over 85 per cent of billionaires are first
generation, this will be the first-ever handover of billionaire
wealth.
This year’s UBS/PwC Billionaire Report explores the potential impact of this massive handover. It examines how the values of the
millennials differ from their parents and how this will fundamentally alter the structure and use of that inherited wealth.
We ask what Asia can learn from Europe about multigenerational wealth preservation. We also investigate how rising billionaire
philanthropy could be boosted by repeating the same formula that underpinned their success to start with, i.e. business focus
and smart risk taking.
The report is the most comprehensive of its kind, incorporating 20 years of data that track more than 1,400 billionaires. It covers
the 14 largest billionaire markets, accounting for 80 per cent of global billionaire wealth. The report also draws on insights from
interviews with more than 30 billionaires, 30 heirs and 20 billionaire advisors.
Billionaires matter. They create and hold immense wealth. Shifts in the structure of that wealth matters to the wealthy and
their families. But they also impact the global economy and society as a whole. This report shines a light on tomorrow’s wealth
landscape.
Josef Stadler
Group Managing Director
Head Global Ultra High Net Worth
UBS Wealth Management
John Mathews
Group Managing Director
Head of Private Wealth Management
and Ultra High Net Worth
UBS Wealth Management Americas
Amy Lo
Group Managing Director
Head Wealth Management Greater China
and Co-Head Ultra High Net Worth
Asia Pacific UBS Wealth Management
Dr. Marcel Widrig
Partner
PwC Switzerland Private Wealth Leader
Michael Spellacy
Partner
PwC US Global Wealth Leader
Ng Siew Quan
Asia Pacific Entrepreneurial and Private Clients Leader
PwC Singapore
6 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
The Gilded Age
slows under
headwinds
The Second Gilded Age has hesitated.
The transfer of assets within families,
commodity price deflation and an
appreciating US dollar have emerged as
significant headwinds.
Great wealth creation continues in the US,
but it is slowing. The country’s billionaire
population grew by just 1% in 2015, to
538. Yet its total wealth fell by 6% from
USD 2.6trn to USD 2.4trn.
Europe leads in
protecting wealth
Europe stands out as
the home of multi-
generational billionaires.
While it may not be the
best at creating great
wealth, Europe has proved
the best at keeping it.
Asia’s one
billionaire
every three
days
Many billionaire heirs have broader values and
greater choices. They may choose philanthropy over
entrepreneurialism, personal careers over working in
the family business.
breakthroughs
on pause
US Bi ionaire
Led by China, Asia is creating one billionaire every three
days. One hundred and thirteen Asian entrepreneurs
attained billionaire status during the year, accounting
for more than half (54%) of 2015’s global total.
Millennials take
over the reins?
We estimate that less than 500
people will hand over USD 2.1trn,
equivalent to India’s GDP, to their
heirs in the next 20 years.
Huge wealth
transfer in sight
$2.1trn
7 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
ARE BILLIONAIRES FEELING THE PRESSURE?
•	 The Second Gilded Age pauses
	 After more than 20 years of great wealth creation, the Se-
cond Gilded Age has hesitated. The transfer of assets within
families, commodity price deflation and an appreciating US
dollar have emerged as significant headwinds. In 2015, 210
fortunes broke through the billion-dollar wealth ceiling, in-
creasing the billionaire population in the markets we cover
(the 14 largest billionaire markets) to 1,397. Yet their total
wealth fell from USD 5.4trn to USD 5.1trn. Average wealth
fell from USD 4bn in 2014 to USD 3.7bn in 2015. It is too
early to tell if 2015 signals a pause in the Gilded Age or
something more.
•	 US billionaire growth falters
	 With the world’s largest billionaire population, the US sets
the pace. Great wealth creation continues in the US, but it
is slowing. The country’s billionaire population grew by just
five in 2015, to 538. Yet their total wealth fell by 6% – from
USD 2.6trn to USD 2.4trn. While US self-made billionaires
have driven this Gilded Age, and the US hosts almost half
(47%) of billionaire wealth, the world’s leading billionaire
economy has lost some of its momentum.
•	 Europe leads in protecting wealth
	 Europe stands out as the home of multigenerational billio-
naires. While it may not be the best at creating great wealth,
Europe has proved the best at keeping it. The region’s billi-
onaire wealth remained broadly the same (with a small fall
of 3%), at USD 1.3trn. Europe has the greatest number of
multigenerational billionaires, and ranks a close second to
the US for total multigenerational billionaire wealth.
•	 Asia’s one billionaire every three days
	 Led by China, Asia is creating one billionaire every three
days. One hundred and thirteen Asian entrepreneurs at-
tained billionaire status during the year, accounting for more
than half (54%) of 2015’s global total. Young business-
people are making money fast in technology, consumer &
retail and real estate. The region’s billionaire wealth stood at
USD 1.5trn, a slight fall on the previous year due largely to
currency depreciation.
•	 Huge wealth transfer in sight
	 The past 20 years’ exceptional wealth creation will soon be
followed by the biggest-ever wealth transfer. We estimate
that fewer than 500 people (460 of the billionaires in the
markets we cover) will hand over USD 2.1trn, equivalent to
India’s GDP, to their heirs in the next 20 years. For most of
Asia’s young economies, this will be the first-ever handover
of billionaire wealth, as over 85% are first generation.
•	 Millennials take the reins?
	 Many billionaire heirs have broader values and greater
choices. They may choose philanthropy over entrepreneuri-
alism, personal careers over working in the family business.
This is likely to influence the structure and type of legacies
established. Many billionaires may cash out. Those opting to
keep their businesses have heirs who are increasingly likely
to become owners not managers.
•	 Fleeting fortunes
	 Billionaire wealth is often shortlived due to business risk and
dilution. In fact, of the fortunes that have fallen below the
billion-dollar mark in the past 20 years, 90% did so in the first
and second generation. More than two-thirds (70%) of them
have not remained intact beyond the first generation and a
further fifth (20%) were gone by the end of the second.
•	 Old legacies’ lessons	
	 At a time of economic headwinds and imminent wealth
transfer, Europe’s old legacies are a model for new billio-
naires. Mapping of markets shows Europe, and especially
Germany and Switzerland, as the markets with the greatest
share of ‘old’ wealth. Asia’s family-oriented billionaires may
wish to adapt the European model of wealth preservation to
their own needs.
•	 Philanthropy’s new age:
	 Time for more entrepreneurialism?
	 Just as philanthropy surged following the First Gilded Age,
so the past 35 years’ growth of billionaire wealth is driving
its expansion now. Rising billionaire philanthropy could have
significant benefits for society and the environment. Yet
there appears to be a strategy gap that could limit the effec-
tiveness of giving.
Executive summary
8 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
In Asia, they have built megacities, powered
and connected by new infrastructure.
Yet great wealth creation lost some of its
momentum in 2015.
9 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
In the past 35 years, a small number of entrepreneurs
have created huge wealth – for the economy and them-
selves. Yet after three transformational decades, this
phenomenon is losing momentum.
The First Gilded Age lasted 40 years, from 1870 to 1910. Then,
a few businessmen developed some of the innovations that
would transform their time – such as the car, electricity and
steel.
During the Second Gilded Age, entrepreneurs have built the
Internet and its ecosystem, pioneered hedge and private equity
funds, and transformed the consumer industry. In Asia, they
have built megacities, powered and connected by new infra-
structure. Yet great wealth creation lost some of its momentum
in 2015.
Many of the catalysts for our current Gilded Age have weake-
ned. In the US, sectors such as technology and financial services
are no longer driving billionaire wealth. As a result, commodity
price deflation and dilution of wealth through transfer of wealth
among families have led to a fall in overall wealth. Only in Asia’s
young, fast-developing economies are billionaire fortunes still
growing, although local currency depreciation diminished this
in US dollar terms.
“Taking risks requires a certain
belief that the future will be
better. And currently uncertainty
levels are unprecedented.”
Self-made billionaire
It is too early to tell if the past 30 years’ extraordinary period
of wealth creation is coming to an end, but it’s clearly slowing.
The world is still making more billionaires, but most of them
are in Asia. Furthermore, total billionaire wealth across the 14
markets we study has fallen.
In 2015, the billionaire population in our defined markets effec-
tively grew by just 50 to 1,397. Billionaires’ total wealth fell by
a total of USD 300bn, declining from USD 5.4trn to USD 5.1trn.
Average wealth fell from USD 4.0bn in 2014 to USD 3.7bn in
2015.
After two decades of outperforming global stock markets, bil-
lionaires’ fortunes failed to match them. They fell 5%, against
a flat MSCI World Index (down 0.3%). Over the past 20 years,
billionaire wealth has increased by a factor of seven, double the
MSCI World Index’s 3.5. Furthermore, in 2015, neither billio-
naires nor the stock market matched the economy’s expansion.
Global GDP grew 2.4%, down from 2.6% in 2014, according
to the World Bank.
Billionaire wealth was volatile. One self-made billionaire we in-
terviewed explained that: “Taking risks requires a certain belief
that the future will be better. And currently uncertainty levels
are unprecedented.” Wealth generation and growth thrive best
when entrepreneurial conditions meet stable macroeconomics.
While billionaires are well equipped in navigating risks in such
environments, one multigenerational entrepreneur voiced si-
milar concerns, saying protectionism and increasing economic
uncertainty are raising risk levels.
In 2015, 210 people joined the ranks of billionaires. More than
half of them were based in Asia, where young business people
are getting wealthy fast in sectors like real estate. But 160 also
dropped off our database.
Billionaires in the materials sector experienced the greatest fall
in wealth (down 17%). Slumping metal and hydrocarbon prices
hit the fortunes of mining and energy billionaires worldwide. In
just one year, this sector’s average wealth fell by almost a fifth.
Wealth in other sectors also fell, although by a smaller percen-
tage. Billionaires in the Industrials sector saw their wealth drop
12% and those in consumer & retail, the wealthiest sector, by 8%.
Even technology and financial services, historically areas of in-
novation, had a flat year. Average wealth in the former did not
move, while in the latter it fell 3%.
THE GILDED AGE PAUSES
VOLATILITY AND INTERGENERATIONAL
TRANSFER
10 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
Wealth creation dips (progress of in-scope billionaire wealth 1995 to 2015)
MSCI
World
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
6.0 trn
5.0 trn
4.0 trn
3.0 trn
2.0 trn
1.0 trn
© UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
© UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
x 7.0
MSCI World®
EuropeUS APAC
Asian
financial
crisis
Global
financial
crisis
Dotcom
bubble
x 3.5
The sector makes a difference (wealth distribution 2014 to 2015)
2014
2015
(%) Percentual change
In USD trillion (trn)
Consumer
&retail
Technology
Financial
services
Materials
Realestate
Entertainment
&media
Industrials
Other
Health
industries
1.3
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4 0.3
1.2
0.7 0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
-8% -3% -2% -2% +2%-0%-17% -12%+0%
11 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
The makeup of 2015’s new billionaires
Split by wealth band Split by generation Split by region
© UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
Self-made
170
150
2
9
29
29
Europe
26.7% (56)
US
19.5% (41)
APAC
53.8%
(113)
13 18
<2bn 1st<5bn 2nd<10bn 3rd>10bn >4th
81% 71%19% 29%
Multigenerational US Europe APACSelf-made Multigenerational
76%
55%
56%24%
Most of 2015’s new billionaires were entrepreneurs and from
Asia. One hundred and fifty of the 210 were self-made and 113
from Asia. Most of the 60 inheriting their fortunes in 2015 were
from Europe. Dilution ensured that these new multigenerational
rich tended to be less wealthy than their self-made peers. But
volatility in the number of billionaires is not just down to busi-
ness risks. It’s said that nothing in life is certain except death
and taxes. As the global billionaire population ages, some are
dropping off the list as their wealth passes to the next genera-
tion.
US FLATTENS OUT
Just as the US is home to the world’s largest collection of
billionaires, so it sets the scene in billionaire trends. Almost half
(47%) of billionaire wealth in our database is based in the US, yet
in 2015 its billionaire population rose by just five. Further, total
US billionaire wealth fell by 6% – from USD 2.6trn to USD 2.4trn.
While 41 people broke through the billion dollar ceiling, 36
dropped out. So the US is still creating a few new billionaires
but its billionaire wealth is flagging. There appear to be good
reasons for this. Commodity price deflation and family wealth
transfer reduced billionaire wealth. At the same time, the mo-
tors of this gilded age in the US stalled. Wealth in both the
technology and finance sectors was flat during the year.
Young money fared better than old. Self-made billionaires’
wealth fell by just 4%, from an average of USD 4.7bn per in-
dividual to USD 4.5bn. The number of multigenerational bil-
lionaires’ fell by far more, by a sixth (16%), with the average
fortune falling from USD 5.1bn to USD 4.3bn. While business
volatility accounted for more than half of this fall (61%), almost
a third (31%) was due to the dilution that happens during we-
alth handovers.
Symbolising America’s culture of free enterprise and wealth
creation, self-made wealth overtook inherited wealth. These
self-made men and women have driven change in the Techno-
logy, Finance and Consumer & Retail sectors in the last three
decades.
LESSONS FROM EUROPE
Contradicting common perceptions, and in spite of Europe’s
economic difficulties, its billionaires are proving most resilient.
Their total wealth was almost unchanged in 2015 at USD 1.3trn
(a small fall of 3%). When it comes to multigenerational billio-
naires, Europe now ranks first in terms of number of billionai-
res and a close second to the US in terms of multigenerational
wealth.
Europe was the home to 56 new billionaires in 2015 – more than
the US. But most (59%) inherited their wealth or at least the majo-
rity of it. After 44 drop-offs, this amounted to a net increase of 12,
lifting the region’s total billionaire population to 339.
“Europe is leading in wealth
preservation.”
Europe is leading the world in wealth preservation. Its multige-
nerational billionaires survived 2015 far better than their peers
in other markets. Their average wealth fell just 7%, from USD
4.1bn to USD 3.8bn. As one second-generation southern Eu-
ropean billionaire told us: “While ten years ago, our business
was the growth engine to our family wealth, in recent years it
has gone the opposite way. We use the returns from our private
assets to support our business, allowing us to maintain and ex-
pand our market share against our competitors.” The region’s
relatively small group of self-made billionaires experienced a
similar fall in wealth. On average, their fortunes fell 8%, from
USD 3.8bn to USD 3.5bn.
12 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
A NEW ASIAN BILLIONAIRE EVERY THREE DAYS
They say that Asia creates a new billionaire every week. But
our data reveals that, in fact, China’s surging economy meant
that 2015 saw one new Asian billionaire every three days. In
spite of moderating economic growth rates, China’s accelerated
economic evolution is creating ideal conditions for young entre-
preneurs to get rich fast.
Asia’s entrepreneurs dominate the list of new billionaires. One
hundred and thirteen Asian entrepreneurs, 80 of them from
China (average age 53), attained billionaire status during 2015,
more than half (54%) of the global total. There has been a
surge in China’s billionaire population in the past two years.
In 2014 and 2015, China accounted for 69% and 71% of
Asia’s new billionaires, up from 35% as recently as 2009. (In
absolute terms, there were 92 new Chinese billionaires in 2014.
By contrast, in the four years from 2010 to 2013 between 12
and 58 people a year joined the billionaire ranks.)
Almost half of these came from the technology (19%),
consumer & retail (15%) and real estate (15%) sectors.
E-commerce businesses are in the ascendancy. At the same
time, many of the country’s wealthy are diversifying out of their
existing businesses into real estate. Moreover, China’s urbani-
zation and increasing consumer spending have fostered an
environment where businesses are growing fast.
Yet billionaire wealth can be fleeting in China. Forty of the
country’s tycoons lost billionaire status in the year as asset price
volatility and government scrutiny undermined wealth.
While China’s billionaire wealth rose by 5.4%, billionaire wealth
across the region fell by 6%, from USD 1.6trn to USD 1.5trn
(this fall was less in local currencies due to US dollar appreci-
ation). Outside China, Hong Kong and India had the highest
number of new billionaires, with 11 each.
Far more billionaires in Asia lost their billionaire status than in
Europe or the US. Eighty fell off our database in 2015, against
44 in Europe and 36 in the US, respectively. In addition to
China’s 40 fallers, there were 16 in India – a country where
falling commodity prices had an impact.
The number of billionaires is growing…
US Europe APAC
2014 201420142015 20152015
Drop-offs
Drop-offs
Drop-offs
New
entrants
New
entrants
New
entrants
-36
-80
-44
+41
+113
+56
533
487
327
538
520
339
+1%
+7%
+4%
© UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
… but their wealth is going down
US Europe APAC-6% -3% -6%
-4% -8% -13%
-16% -7% -9%
Self-made Multigenerational Self-made Multigenerational Self-made Multigenerational
0.9trn 0.7trn 0.7trn
0.3trn0.8trn 0.2trn
1.7trn 0.6trn
1.3trn
2014 2014 2014
2014 2014 2014
Average
wealth in
USD bn
Average
wealth in
USD bn
Average
wealth in
USD bn
2015 2015 2015
2015 2015 2015
1.6trn
2.6trn 1.3trn 1.3trn 1.6trn2.4trn 1.5trn
4.7 3.8 3.2
3.25.1 4.1 3.54.3 3.8
4.5 3.5 2.8
0.6trn
1.3trn
© UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
13 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
In spite of moderating economic growth rates,
China’s accelerated economic evolution is creating
ideal conditions for young entrepreneurs to get
rich fast.
14 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
As great wealth trickles
down the generations, its
goals will change.
15 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
A 2.1 TRILLION DOLLAR INHERITANCE
Most of the world’s billionaires have made their money
in the last 20 years, and now they are aging. In this time,
billionaire wealth has grown by approximately seven
times. So by far the biggest handover ever to the next
generation is about to happen. We estimate that 460 of
the billionaires in the markets we cover will pass USD
2.1trn, the same as India’s entire GDP in 2015, to the next
generation over the coming 20 years.
Even billionaires grow old. One-third of billionaires in our data-
base are more than 70 years old, while they hold 40% of the
group’s total wealth. It is therefore reasonable to assume that
they are in what we call the corridor of wealth transfer.
For the younger Asian economies, especially China, this will
be the first-ever major intergenerational wealth transfer. Our
research shows that 85% of Asian billionaires are first generation.
We expect this critical handover to have significant implications.
As great wealth trickles down the generations, its goals will
change. We are already seeing the early stages of what we
expect to be an upsurge in philanthropy. It is also likely that many
heirs will be prepared for ownership rather than management –
especially in emerging markets where entrepreneurs have often
built complex conglomerates. One emerging markets billionai-
re told us that market dynamics and regulatory and political
changes mean there is no guarantee his business will exist in 15
years’ time. Accordingly, he has no plans to burden his children with
a duty to continue their father’s business, given its uncertain future.
WHAT MAKES MILLENNIALS TICK?
In our first 2015 Billionaire report, we characterised first-
generation billionaires as business-focused, determined and
smart risk takers. Their heirs are naturally different. Rather than
being focused on the single goal of building businesses, they
tend to have wider sets of values.
An advisor, who has several billionaire families as clients,
attributed the difference partly to the wide range of life
choices available now. “Today’s next gens are facing a much
wider array of options due to better education, digitization
and technology. This amplifies the importance of purpose and
meaning for them when choosing what to do and what not
to do.”
This contrast can be most extreme in emerging markets. Often,
the parents have grown up in poverty, forging their fortunes
in the early days of market economies. In Russia, they might
have managed privatized mines. In China, they could be early
real estate entrepreneurs. Coming from a family with relatively
young wealth, it is often difficult for the next gen to find them-
selves and develop their own personality. “They just have a big
weight to carry,” said one of our interviewed billionaires.
In order to identify the characteristics of the next generations
of millennials, the most different of the next generations, we
reviewed an array of survey analysis and case studies, as well
as conducting more than 30 face-to-face interviews. Our re-
search and analysis identified three goals and values. These are:
business first, values not valuables, identity through philanthropy.
The demographics tell the story
US
Europe
APAC
2.4trn
1.3trn
1.5trn
52% 1.3trn
50% 0.6trn
80% 1.2trn
48% 1.1trn
50% 0.6trn
20%
0.3trn
40%
(2.1trn)
Total wealth = USD 5.2trn
60%
(3.1trn)
< 70 years of age > 70 years of age–Rounding differences might occur
© UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
16 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
1. Business first
Those young multigenerational billionaires putting business first
are typically highly entrepreneurial, and keen to develop their own
role in the family. Sometimes they are being primed to manage
their family businesses, learning by taking up managerial
roles to start with. Just as often, however, they may start new
businesses either within the firm or entirely separate from it.
These businesses are frequently linked to the digital economy.
Several of our interviewees told us about how their initial ven-
tures were seeded. “My father encouraged me very early on
to take risks with a certain amount of funds,” said one. “He
would oversee my business plans and steps but also create that
space where I was allowed to fail. At the beginning, seeing
my ideas challenged was frustrating but eventually the learning
curve was tremendously steep and today I see my father as a
coach and partner, joining up my business ideas.”
2. Values not valuables
Many of the millennial generation inheriting billionaire
wealth believe in doing good by doing well. In other words,
they see business success as a way of benefiting society. Their
business goals must deliver not only returns to the family, but
also tangible benefits to a wide group of stakeholders – inclu-
ding employees, customers and society at large. While corporate
sustainability in the past has often been accused of “green-
washing”, these young billionaires are passionately committed to
their cause. One related how he was not interested in his father’s
main electronics business but wanted to work in the family agri-
culture business. His goal: to make it even more sustainable.
3. Identity through philanthropy
Some young multigenerational billionaires are inspired by
philanthropy. Growing up at a time of rapid social change, they
are eager to put their resources to work for social good. More
than previous generations, they bring business discipline and
strategy to philanthropy. They want their giving to make an
impact – and they want to be able to measure it.
OWNERS NOT MANAGERS
In contrast to their parents, many of the next generation,
especially millennials, are being prepared as owners not mana-
gers. With more choice about how to live their lives, fewer are
choosing to go into the family business. They are preparing to
become stewards of either the family business or the family’s
investments after cashing out.
With traditional businesses under threat of disruption, we
sometimes hear of billionaire entrepreneurs being concerned
about the longevity risks to their business, with some hoping
their “digital native” children will stir the business in times of
change.
In parts of Asia and emerging markets such as Russia, handing
over diverse corporate empires to untested heirs is hard. These
large empires rely on personal connections for their continued
success. Such is their complexity that they are difficult for a
young person to manage. For China’s one-child families, it may
be even harder to find a suitable heir. Sometimes cashing out
will be the only choice, although some families might choose
instead to appoint external managers.
Over the next 20 years of wealth transfer, there will be more
multigenerational billionaires than ever before. Globally, fewer
will remain in the family business, choosing instead to assert
their identities as entrepreneurs and social entrepreneurs in
their own right.
A billionaire family head told us he used to believe his children
would not be interested in the family business. But as they grew
their careers and started taking part in the family affairs, they
brought long-needed revitalisation and fresh creativity to the
family wealth. The patriarch put it as follows: “They are driving
new business on their own and taking our family wealth into a
portfolio structure, but they also brought us optimism that our
legacy will be sustained.”
Europe best protects what it creates
US Europe APAC
363
157
444
112
98
6035 35
1328
49
3
1st gen 1st gen 1st gen2nd gen 2nd gen 2nd gen3rd gen 3rd gen 3rd gen>4th gen >4th gen >4th gen
67% 46% 85%33% 54% 15%
© UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
17 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
For cultural, business and political reasons there are likely to be
variations on this theme. Traditionally, US families have tended
to cash out, while more Europeans have elected to keep their
businesses. In Asia, our experience of the older Southeast Asian
economies and of China leads us to expect some to adopt a
private equity-holding company style of model. This is a logical
method to preserve wealth in a region where it is sometimes
difficult for heirs to take over family businesses.
In the words of one Chinese millennial heir apparent: “I am not
so interested in taking over the family business. It’s a business I
don’t feel passionate about. I would prefer us to sell the busi-
ness and then reinvest in other companies. Not buying stocks,
but actively managing those companies and learning about dif-
ferent sectors.”
In contrast to their parents, many of the next
generation, especially millennials, are being
prepared as owners not managers.
18 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
As people live longer,
inherited wealth may be
split between several
generations.
19 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
OLD LEGACIES’ LESSONS FOR NEW BILLIONAIRES
Billionaire wealth lasts less time than thought. While it is
commonly held that the first-generation wealthy make
it and the third-generation break it, our research shows
billionaire status to be short-lived. Self-made billionaires
almost never have grandchildren who are also billionaires.
In fact, of the billionaire fortunes that have fallen below the
billion-dollar mark since 1995, 90% were not preserved beyond
the first and second generations. More than two-thirds (70%)
have not remained intact beyond the first generation, and a
further fifth (20%) were gone by the end of the second.
There are two broad reasons why fortunes drop below a billion
dollars: dilution (including ineffective governance and no clear
succession planning) and business and market risks (including
failure to understand risks and disruptive technologies). Dilution
occurs when a billionaire dies and his/her wealth is split among
the next generation, none of whom inherit enough to be billio-
naires in their own right. As people live longer, inherited wealth
may be split between several generations. In our first billionaire
study, published in 2015, we showed how generational algebra
affects a billionaire family where each family member has an
average of three children. By the fifth generation, an original USD
1 bn would translate into a USD 12m inheritance for each child.
However, if three generations live concurrently, for example, and
wealth is split equally, then wealth dilutes far more quickly.
EUROPE LEADS IN WEALTH PRESERVATION
Old legacies offer lessons for new billionaires. While the US and
Asia are creating new billionaire fortunes more successfully,
Europe’s billionaires have proved more successful at passing
their billionaire status to the following generations. In Europe,
over half (54%) of them transfer their billionaire status to the
next generation.
Mapping of markets shows Europe, and especially Germany and
Switzerland, as the markets with the greatest share of “old” or
multigenerational wealth globally. They have become masters
of preserving wealth, with billionaire families thriving through
the generations as their businesses continue to create wealth.
In the United States, by contrast, billionaires have frequently
chosen to cash out of their businesses, and their wealth has not
lasted so long. In Asia, Singapore and India have a high number
of multigenerational billionaires. The newest markets, with
almost no multigenerational billionaires, are China and Russia.
The UK and Singapore are interesting as international centres
that attract billionaires from other countries. Counterintuitively,
our analysis shows the UK’s popularity for first-generation billi-
onaires and Singapore’s for multigenerational wealth.
Europe’s high share of multigenerational wealth is not just due
to its less entrepreneurial culture. Its billionaire families have
built wealth preservation models, based in part on family busi-
nesses, that may prove useful to billionaires in newer markets.
The decline of wealth across generations
since 1995
780
6%
4%
1st genTotal drop-offs
since 1995
2nd gen 3rd gen >4th gen
90% 10%
70%
20%
© UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
Generational algebra compounds the challenge
of wealth dilution (illustrative)
1st
gen 1
3
9
27
81
1,000
333
111
37
12
25.0
8.3
2.7
0.9
0.3
2nd
gen
3rd
gen
4th
gen
5th
gen
No.
members
Ø wealth
(in m.)
Ø dividend
(in m.)*
* ROA of 2.5% assumed© UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
20 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
Successful legacies excel in having a sensible and clear family
governance/vision and maintaining a stable business across the
generations. If the family business preserves family wealth, then
it is vital to have a governance model that prioritises the firm’s
interests over the family’s.
Our research shows that Europe’s billionaire families tend to
have benefited from making important contributions to society
and the economy. Furthermore, historically they have not been
subject to punitive inheritance tax rules. But there are other
lessons that the new crop of billionaires can learn from when
planning and structuring legacies. There are three issues to
consider:
1. Business continuity
For many European billionaire families, the business has linked
the generations. It has nurtured the family fortune and provi-
ded a focal point. Often, successive generations of the family
have become entrepreneurs who have adapted the enterprise
to new challenges and opportunities.
2. Governance
As generations pass, the number of family shareholders grows.
Only strong governance can align them. In our 2015 study we
identified the two types of governance – “family over firm” and
“firm over family”. Regardless of which is chosen, good gover-
nance protects against unprepared heirs and family differences
of opinion.
3. Values
Ultimately, long-lasting family legacies all have a common philo-
sophy and understanding of their purpose and values. Whether
formally articulated in a family charter, or informally communi-
cated, this glues family members together, providing a common
identity that binds them. Common interests like a family estate
or philanthropic organization can enshrine values.
The geography of old and new wealth
Shareofmultigenerationalbillionaires
Switzerland
Germany
Italy
France
India
Singapore
Hong Kong
United States
China
Russia
United Kingdom
Japan
Spain
Turkey
No. of billionaires (log scale)APACEuropeUS
100 1,000
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
45%
40%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
10
Bubble size indicates total wealth per market
© UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
21 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
One millennial German family member explained: “Now that
we are in the third generation, we realise that the family has
to withdraw from actively managing our business and focus
instead on aligning ownership interests. In line with this strategic
decision, we want to be sure that the business will follow
our family values, so it gives us not only financial means but
a common identity that keeps us cousins together. This beco-
mes more important as we all do our own thing. I have my
own business interests focusing on start-ups in the media.
And two of my cousins are very involved in philanthropy.”
“Long-lasting family legacies all
have a common philosophy”
Within Europe, 69% of self-made billionaires have chosen to keep
their wealth in private firms rather than cash out. This compares
with60%intheUS.ManyofEurope’sbillionairescontrolcompanies
with strong competitive advantages and barriers to entry, in sectors
such as pharmaceuticals and consumer & retail. Their profitability
tends to be resilient, preserving family wealth through generations.
However, in other markets preserving wealth in this way may not
be practicable. In the US, a large number of self-made billionaires
choose to cash out or pass much of their wealth to philanthropic
causes. The millennial generation may prefer not to be actively
involved in the original family business. Meanwhile, business cul-
ture and political reality in some emerging markets may make
cashing out necessary. In these cases, it is likely that there will be
a growth in structuring through private equity-type holding struc-
tures of family assets. A member of one family of entrepreneurs
spoke about how they treasure their core business yet, at the
same time, are actively looking to pursue direct investments to
leverage their capital and network. In this way, they are seeking
new opportunities for growth while concurrently diversifying the
risks. Yet, family values will be essential for preserving wealth.
Asian billionaires may be able to learn from Europe’s successful
wealth preservation model. Yet in China, where many families
still have only one child, there will be no choice but to go out-
side the family for managers. This will lead to adoption of the
firm-over-family governance model.
Private or public ownership – the legacy options of self-made billionaires in 2015
US Europe APAC
363 157 44460% 69% 65%
6%
11%
Total Total TotalPrivate firm
Minority of shares listed, firm still in family ownership
Private firm Private firmPublic firm
or cash out
Public firm
or cash out
Public firm
or cash out
54% 58% 39%
40%
31% 35%
26%
© UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
22 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
PHILANTHROPY’S NEW AGE:
TIME FOR MORE ENTREPRENEURIALISM?
Just as philanthropy surged following the First Gilded Age, so
the past 35 years’ growth of billionaire wealth is driving its
expansion now. Yet if billionaires applied the characteristics they
bring to their businesses, then they could be more effective.
In the first half of the twentieth century, entrepreneurial families
such as the Carnegies and Rockefellers funded significant de-
velopments in areas such as education and health. When doing
so, they leveraged some of the billionaires’ characteristic traits
– chiefly business focus and smart risk taking – to drive success.
After more than three decades of this Second Gilded Age, billi-
onaire philanthropy is growing all over the world. New philanth-
ropic models are emerging (loans, guarantees, contracts, impact
investing, etc.), and the millennial generation is putting philan-
thropy at the heart of family values. In spite of this, however,
the current Gilded Age may not match its predecessor’s record.
There is a lot to learn from the first philanthropists. Like them,
this generation would do well to leverage their trademark
business characteristics. Putting these traits into the context of
the present day, they should seek to be more strategic, take
risks and collaborate.
1. Focused strategy
Many private philanthropists struggle between purely following
their passion and thinking strategically about its potential
benefits. They also have difficulties assessing impact. Much
work on aligning approaches to social impact measurement is
taking place, yet private philanthropists are not always aware
of this. There is a need to be more strategic and to adopt best
practice in measurement.
2. Smart risk taking
It has been argued that private philanthropy should be the risk
capital for the social and development sectors. Private philanth-
ropists can, in theory, take greater risks than others, and have a
longer-term view, as they face fewer accountability constraints
than others. Yet few are willing to take these risks, although
that is precisely what the complex problems they aim to solve
require.
3. Active collaboration
Human nature is individualistic and philanthropists want to
shape programs themselves. In practice, humanity’s most intract-
able problems can only be solved with greater cooperation and
cross-sector approaches. This must be combined with activism,
which assesses a problem and commits to solving it, while
taking a flexible approach.
Perhaps the most important of these three areas is strategy.
Rising billionaire philanthropy could have significant benefits
for society and the environment. Quite how significant will
depend on the extent to which billionaire entrepreneurs
apply some of the characteristics that have made their businesses
successful.
23 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
Rising billionaire philanthropy
could have significant benefits for
society and the environment.
24 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
We will see a huge handover of
wealth to the next generation, many
of whom will be millennials, whose
primary interests may lie outside the
family business.
25 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
OUTLOOK
The Second Gilded Age has paused. Wealth transfer and com-
modity price deflation are putting billionaires under pressure
at a time when technology and finance, the motors of great
wealth creation, have stalled. This is chiefly a US phenome-
non, but even in Asia billionaire wealth has stopped growing.
The notable exception to this trend is China, where billionaires
continue to thrive.
DILUTION AHEAD
With many billionaires over 70, significant dilution of billionaire
fortunes lies ahead. We will see a huge handover of wealth to
their heirs, many of whom will be millennials whose primary
interests may lie outside the family business. There will also be
continued volatility of wealth for business reasons. Without care-
ful planning, many of today’s fortunes will suffer substantial
erosion.
SOCIETY GAINS
In the years to come, the whole of society will benefit from
this age of great wealth creation. All over the world, this gene-
ration of billionaires, and their idealistic heirs, are committing
wealth to philanthropy on a greater scale than ever. Whether
today’s billionaires match the achievements of the Carnegies and
Rockefellers, however, will depend on whether they apply their
business skills to philanthropy.
WHAT NEXT FOR THE GILDED AGE?
2015’s data alone does not set a trend. We expect financial
asset performance and economic growth to create a favourable
environment for billionaire wealth creation in 2016 and 2017.
For financial investors, global equity and credit markets are
expected to deliver positive returns. For entrepreneurs and
portfolio investors, UBS forecasts the global economy will grow
5.6% (in nominal terms) in 2016 and a further 6.1% in 2017.
Finally, over 80% of the entrepreneurs in our UBS Industry
Leader Network have consistently reported stable or improving
business outlooks in 2016.
26 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
RESEARCH BACKGROUND
A few words about the research and sources
A number of sources were utilised to research and profile the
characteristics of wealthy individuals. These were blended
into a mosaic analytical framework from which we conducted
extensive modeling and analysis. This information and data are
part of PwC proprietary data and analytics structures and are
noncommercial in nature and specifically nonattributable regar-
ding the identity of any underlying individual or family.
PwC acts as a supplier of data and analysis for the purpose of
this report. In addition the following were specifically leveraged
as a part of our research:
•	 PwC has a significant body of research drawn from publishing
studies on Wealth and Private Banking, and Family Busines-
ses including current and future perspectives on a number
of industries from which we were able to derive insights.
These include but are not limited to Next Generation Survey of
Family Business Leaders 2016, Banking Tax 2020, 18th
Annual Global CEO Survey: A Private Company View (2015),
Global Family Business Survey: Up Close and Professional
(2014) and, from our network firm INTES: Nachfolge im Fami-
lienunternehmen (2015). Further, UBS’s body of research and
insights in Wealth and Private Banking were leveraged. These
include but are not limited to the UBS House View Year Ahead
2016:theanswersfor2016,UBSHouseViewYearsAhead:our
5-7 year view, UBS Investor Watch, The Global Family
OfficeReport2015,UBSPhilanthropyCompass,UBS-INSEAD
Study on Family Philanthropy in Asia, and the UBS - Harvard
study, From Prosperity to Purpose.
•	 Other analysis is based on our proprietary PwC databases
that covers non-client-specific detailed bottom-up data on
approximately 1,400 billionaires from the US, Germany, UK,
France, Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Spain, China, India, Hong
Kong, Japan, Singapore and, Russia. This is a private, non-
commercial data structure designed to support analysis of
specific market segments.
•	 Specific interviews with a number of billionaires and a num-
ber of next gen‘s of billionaires in various geographies were
conducted by PwC and UBS separately and the information
from those qualitative discussions were incorporated on a
nonattributable basis without regard to any business/client
relationship with any person, firm or organization. Further,
we conducted over 20 interviews with billionaire advisors.
•	 For the long-term series of the MSCI and GDP data we used
the MSCI World gross data (accessed on 05/2016) and the
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects database (accessed
05/2016) respectively. The UBS Industry Leader Network is
a global network of entrepreneurs and business leaders in
privately held companies.
27 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
DISCLAIMER
This publication has been prepared for general guidance on
matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional
advice of any kind. You should not act upon the information
contained in this publication without obtaining specific profes-
sional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied)
is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information
contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by
law, neither PwC nor any affiliate of UBS Group accepts or as-
sumes any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any conse-
quences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in
reliance on the information contained in this publication or for
any decision based on it.
No affiliate of UBS Group nor any of their employees provide
tax or legal advice. You should consult with your personal tax or
legal advisor regarding your personal circumstances. No affiliate
of UBS Group nor PwC accepts or assumes any liability, responsi-
bility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else
acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information cont-
ained in this publication or for any decision based on it.
PwC and UBS Financial Services Inc. are not affiliated.
UBS Financial Services Inc. is a subsidiary of UBS AG. Member
FINRA/SIPC.
As a firm providing wealth management services to clients, UBS
Financial Services, Inc is registered with the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC) as an investment adviser and a
broker-dealer, offering both investment advisory and brokerage
services. Advisory services and brokerage services are separate
and distinct, differ in material ways and are governed by dif-
ferent laws and separate contracts. It is important that you care-
fully read the agreements and disclosures UBS provides to you
about the products or services offered. For more information,
please visit our website at www.ubs.com/workingwithus.
For further information please contact:
Áine Bryn – Global FS Marketing Director, PwC UK 	
+44 207 212 8839
aine.bryn@uk.pwc.com – www.pwc.com/fs
							
Tim Cobb – Wealth Management Communications, UBS AG
+41 44 234 84 09
tim.cobb@ubs.com – www.ubs.com
© 2016 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC net-
work and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is
a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for
further details.
© 2016 UBS 2016. The key symbol and UBS are among the
registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights
reserved.
© 2016 UBS Financial Services Inc. All rights reserved. Member
SIPC. All other trademarks, registered trademarks, service marks
and registered service marks are of their respective companies.
UBS Financial Services Inc.
www.ubs.com/financialservicesinc
UBS Financial Services Inc. is a subsidiary of UBS AG.
84645E
27 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016
ubs.com/billionaires

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Billionaires Report 2016

  • 1. 1 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 BILLIONAIRES INSIGHTS B Are billionaires feeling the pressure?
  • 2. 2 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 A FEW WORDS ABOUT OUR RESEARCH Following our first comprehensive reports on billionaire wealth in 2015, we continue our investigation into this historic era of wealth generation. This year we have analyzed data covering 1,397 billionaires and looking back two decades. Our database includes the 14 largest billionaire markets, which account for around 80% of global billionaire wealth. Further, we’ve con- ducted over 20 interviews with billionaire advisors and further face-to-face interviews with more than 30 billionaires and approximately 30 of their heirs. UBS and PwC advise a large number of the world’s wealthy and have unique insights into their changing fortunes and needs. For more information see our disclaimer on page 27.
  • 3. 3 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 CONTENTS Introduction 5 Executive summary 7 The Gilded Age pauses: Volatility and intergenerational transfer 9 A 2.1 trillion dollar inheritance 15 Old legacies’ lessons for new billionaires 19 Outlook 25
  • 5. 5 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 5 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2015 mergence of new billionaires and intergenerational wealth the “billionaire” status is a significant challenge. eport, which analysed wealth creation, preservation and philanthropy, this report takes population. Looking back 20 years, we surveyed 1,300 people in the 14 markets that e wealth and compiled a comprehensive database on the world’s billionaire population. naires outpaced their male peers, with their ranks and wealth growing at faster rates. mpressive, over half of the female billionaire population is self-made, well ahead of s. GDP has almost tripled from $30 trillion to over $77 trillion. But the wealth of billionaires ightfold, from $0.7 trillion in 1995 to $5.4 trillion in 2014. billionaires have accumulated has skyrocketed, however, does not mean that all aires surveyed in 1995, less than half were still on the list in 2014. Factors contributing nclude death, dilution and business failure and serve as a reminder of the sometimes on about how wealth can easily disappear. In Italy, it’s ‘from the stable to the stars ‘the father buys, the son builds, the grandchild sells, and his son begs.’ Avoiding iority for many of the billionaires we studied. To preserve wealth over multiple genera- e from the family’s kitchen table to the office’s boardroom. With the Baby Boomer h transfer, the need for careful legacy planning, whether it be philanthropy, bination of both, is vital. he West and more like the general population of the world – more women and more nger. That trend isn’t going to slow. athews ng Director alth Management s Ultra High Net Worth Michael Spellacy Partner PwC US Global Wealth Leader Dr. Marcel Widrig Partner PwC Switzerland Private Wealth Leader 5 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2015 Welcome to the UBS/PwC report on Billionaires: The changing faces of billionaires, which reveals the evolving identity of the world’s billionaires over the last two decades. Not only has the billionaire population become more diverse in terms of age, sex and nationality through the emergence of new billionaires and intergenerational wealth transfer, but maintaining the “billionaire” status is a significant challenge. Building on our original Billionaire report, which analysed wealth creation, preservation and philanthropy, this report takes a deeper look at today’s billionaire population. Looking back 20 years, we surveyed 1,300 people in the 14 markets that account for 75% of global billionaire wealth and compiled a comprehensive database on the world’s billionaire population. Over this time period, female billionaires outpaced their male peers, with their ranks and wealth growing at faster rates. In Asia, where this growth is most impressive, over half of the female billionaire population is self-made, well ahead of their US and European counterparts. Over the last two decades, global GDP has almost tripled from $30 trillion to over $77 trillion. But the wealth of billionaires in our study has increased almost eightfold, from $0.7 trillion in 1995 to $5.4 trillion in 2014. Just because the amount of money billionaires have accumulated has skyrocketed, however, does not mean that all billionaires benefited. Of the billionaires surveyed in 1995, less than half were still on the list in 2014. Factors contributing to their loss of “billionaire” status include death, dilution and business failure and serve as a reminder of the sometimes fleeting nature of wealth. In every culture, there is an expression about how wealth can easily disappear. In Italy, it’s ‘from the stable to the stars and back again’ and in Scotland it’s ‘the father buys, the son builds, the grandchild sells, and his son begs.’ Avoiding the pitfalls in wealth transfer is a priority for many of the billionaires we studied. To preserve wealth over multiple genera- tions, business decisions must move from the family’s kitchen table to the office’s boardroom. With the Baby Boomer generation in the corridor of wealth transfer, the need for careful legacy planning, whether it be philanthropy, intergenerational transfer or a combination of both, is vital. The wealthy already look less like the West and more like the general population of the world – more women and more diverse, in some cases skewing younger. That trend isn’t going to slow. Josef Stadler Group Managing Director Head Global Ultra High Net Worth John Mathews Managing Director UBS Wealth Management Americas Ultra High Net Worth Michael Spellacy Partner PwC US Global Wealth Leader Dr. Marcel Widrig Partner PwC Switzerland Private Wealth Leader 5 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2015 Welcome to the UBS/PwC report on Billionaires: The changing faces of billionaires, which reveals the evolving identity of the world’s billionaires over the last two decades. Not only has the billionaire population become more diverse in terms of age, sex and nationality through the emergence of new billionaires and intergenerational wealth ransfer, but maintaining the “billionaire” status is a significant challenge. Building on our original Billionaire report, which analysed wealth creation, preservation and philanthropy, this report takes deeper look at today’s billionaire population. Looking back 20 years, we surveyed 1,300 people in the 14 markets that ccount for 75% of global billionaire wealth and compiled a comprehensive database on the world’s billionaire population. Over this time period, female billionaires outpaced their male peers, with their ranks and wealth growing at faster rates. n Asia, where this growth is most impressive, over half of the female billionaire population is self-made, well ahead of heir US and European counterparts. Over the last two decades, global GDP has almost tripled from $30 trillion to over $77 trillion. But the wealth of billionaires n our study has increased almost eightfold, from $0.7 trillion in 1995 to $5.4 trillion in 2014. ust because the amount of money billionaires have accumulated has skyrocketed, however, does not mean that all billionaires benefited. Of the billionaires surveyed in 1995, less than half were still on the list in 2014. Factors contributing o their loss of “billionaire” status include death, dilution and business failure and serve as a reminder of the sometimes fleeting nature of wealth. n every culture, there is an expression about how wealth can easily disappear. In Italy, it’s ‘from the stable to the stars nd back again’ and in Scotland it’s ‘the father buys, the son builds, the grandchild sells, and his son begs.’ Avoiding he pitfalls in wealth transfer is a priority for many of the billionaires we studied. To preserve wealth over multiple genera- ions, business decisions must move from the family’s kitchen table to the office’s boardroom. With the Baby Boomer generation in the corridor of wealth transfer, the need for careful legacy planning, whether it be philanthropy, ntergenerational transfer or a combination of both, is vital. he wealthy already look less like the West and more like the general population of the world – more women and more diverse, in some cases skewing younger. That trend isn’t going to slow. osef Stadler Group Managing Director Head Global Ultra High Net Worth John Mathews Managing Director UBS Wealth Management Americas Ultra High Net Worth Michael Spellacy Partner PwC US Global Wealth Leader Dr. Marcel Widrig Partner PwC Switzerland Private Wealth Leader ARE BILLIONAIRES FEELING THE PRESSURE? We are about to witness the largest-ever transfer of billionaire wealth. We estimate that fewer than 500 people will hand over USD 2.1 trillion to their heirs over the next 20 years. For most Asian economies, where over 85 per cent of billionaires are first generation, this will be the first-ever handover of billionaire wealth. This year’s UBS/PwC Billionaire Report explores the potential impact of this massive handover. It examines how the values of the millennials differ from their parents and how this will fundamentally alter the structure and use of that inherited wealth. We ask what Asia can learn from Europe about multigenerational wealth preservation. We also investigate how rising billionaire philanthropy could be boosted by repeating the same formula that underpinned their success to start with, i.e. business focus and smart risk taking. The report is the most comprehensive of its kind, incorporating 20 years of data that track more than 1,400 billionaires. It covers the 14 largest billionaire markets, accounting for 80 per cent of global billionaire wealth. The report also draws on insights from interviews with more than 30 billionaires, 30 heirs and 20 billionaire advisors. Billionaires matter. They create and hold immense wealth. Shifts in the structure of that wealth matters to the wealthy and their families. But they also impact the global economy and society as a whole. This report shines a light on tomorrow’s wealth landscape. Josef Stadler Group Managing Director Head Global Ultra High Net Worth UBS Wealth Management John Mathews Group Managing Director Head of Private Wealth Management and Ultra High Net Worth UBS Wealth Management Americas Amy Lo Group Managing Director Head Wealth Management Greater China and Co-Head Ultra High Net Worth Asia Pacific UBS Wealth Management Dr. Marcel Widrig Partner PwC Switzerland Private Wealth Leader Michael Spellacy Partner PwC US Global Wealth Leader Ng Siew Quan Asia Pacific Entrepreneurial and Private Clients Leader PwC Singapore
  • 6. 6 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 The Gilded Age slows under headwinds The Second Gilded Age has hesitated. The transfer of assets within families, commodity price deflation and an appreciating US dollar have emerged as significant headwinds. Great wealth creation continues in the US, but it is slowing. The country’s billionaire population grew by just 1% in 2015, to 538. Yet its total wealth fell by 6% from USD 2.6trn to USD 2.4trn. Europe leads in protecting wealth Europe stands out as the home of multi- generational billionaires. While it may not be the best at creating great wealth, Europe has proved the best at keeping it. Asia’s one billionaire every three days Many billionaire heirs have broader values and greater choices. They may choose philanthropy over entrepreneurialism, personal careers over working in the family business. breakthroughs on pause US Bi ionaire Led by China, Asia is creating one billionaire every three days. One hundred and thirteen Asian entrepreneurs attained billionaire status during the year, accounting for more than half (54%) of 2015’s global total. Millennials take over the reins? We estimate that less than 500 people will hand over USD 2.1trn, equivalent to India’s GDP, to their heirs in the next 20 years. Huge wealth transfer in sight $2.1trn
  • 7. 7 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 ARE BILLIONAIRES FEELING THE PRESSURE? • The Second Gilded Age pauses After more than 20 years of great wealth creation, the Se- cond Gilded Age has hesitated. The transfer of assets within families, commodity price deflation and an appreciating US dollar have emerged as significant headwinds. In 2015, 210 fortunes broke through the billion-dollar wealth ceiling, in- creasing the billionaire population in the markets we cover (the 14 largest billionaire markets) to 1,397. Yet their total wealth fell from USD 5.4trn to USD 5.1trn. Average wealth fell from USD 4bn in 2014 to USD 3.7bn in 2015. It is too early to tell if 2015 signals a pause in the Gilded Age or something more. • US billionaire growth falters With the world’s largest billionaire population, the US sets the pace. Great wealth creation continues in the US, but it is slowing. The country’s billionaire population grew by just five in 2015, to 538. Yet their total wealth fell by 6% – from USD 2.6trn to USD 2.4trn. While US self-made billionaires have driven this Gilded Age, and the US hosts almost half (47%) of billionaire wealth, the world’s leading billionaire economy has lost some of its momentum. • Europe leads in protecting wealth Europe stands out as the home of multigenerational billio- naires. While it may not be the best at creating great wealth, Europe has proved the best at keeping it. The region’s billi- onaire wealth remained broadly the same (with a small fall of 3%), at USD 1.3trn. Europe has the greatest number of multigenerational billionaires, and ranks a close second to the US for total multigenerational billionaire wealth. • Asia’s one billionaire every three days Led by China, Asia is creating one billionaire every three days. One hundred and thirteen Asian entrepreneurs at- tained billionaire status during the year, accounting for more than half (54%) of 2015’s global total. Young business- people are making money fast in technology, consumer & retail and real estate. The region’s billionaire wealth stood at USD 1.5trn, a slight fall on the previous year due largely to currency depreciation. • Huge wealth transfer in sight The past 20 years’ exceptional wealth creation will soon be followed by the biggest-ever wealth transfer. We estimate that fewer than 500 people (460 of the billionaires in the markets we cover) will hand over USD 2.1trn, equivalent to India’s GDP, to their heirs in the next 20 years. For most of Asia’s young economies, this will be the first-ever handover of billionaire wealth, as over 85% are first generation. • Millennials take the reins? Many billionaire heirs have broader values and greater choices. They may choose philanthropy over entrepreneuri- alism, personal careers over working in the family business. This is likely to influence the structure and type of legacies established. Many billionaires may cash out. Those opting to keep their businesses have heirs who are increasingly likely to become owners not managers. • Fleeting fortunes Billionaire wealth is often shortlived due to business risk and dilution. In fact, of the fortunes that have fallen below the billion-dollar mark in the past 20 years, 90% did so in the first and second generation. More than two-thirds (70%) of them have not remained intact beyond the first generation and a further fifth (20%) were gone by the end of the second. • Old legacies’ lessons At a time of economic headwinds and imminent wealth transfer, Europe’s old legacies are a model for new billio- naires. Mapping of markets shows Europe, and especially Germany and Switzerland, as the markets with the greatest share of ‘old’ wealth. Asia’s family-oriented billionaires may wish to adapt the European model of wealth preservation to their own needs. • Philanthropy’s new age: Time for more entrepreneurialism? Just as philanthropy surged following the First Gilded Age, so the past 35 years’ growth of billionaire wealth is driving its expansion now. Rising billionaire philanthropy could have significant benefits for society and the environment. Yet there appears to be a strategy gap that could limit the effec- tiveness of giving. Executive summary
  • 8. 8 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 In Asia, they have built megacities, powered and connected by new infrastructure. Yet great wealth creation lost some of its momentum in 2015.
  • 9. 9 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 In the past 35 years, a small number of entrepreneurs have created huge wealth – for the economy and them- selves. Yet after three transformational decades, this phenomenon is losing momentum. The First Gilded Age lasted 40 years, from 1870 to 1910. Then, a few businessmen developed some of the innovations that would transform their time – such as the car, electricity and steel. During the Second Gilded Age, entrepreneurs have built the Internet and its ecosystem, pioneered hedge and private equity funds, and transformed the consumer industry. In Asia, they have built megacities, powered and connected by new infra- structure. Yet great wealth creation lost some of its momentum in 2015. Many of the catalysts for our current Gilded Age have weake- ned. In the US, sectors such as technology and financial services are no longer driving billionaire wealth. As a result, commodity price deflation and dilution of wealth through transfer of wealth among families have led to a fall in overall wealth. Only in Asia’s young, fast-developing economies are billionaire fortunes still growing, although local currency depreciation diminished this in US dollar terms. “Taking risks requires a certain belief that the future will be better. And currently uncertainty levels are unprecedented.” Self-made billionaire It is too early to tell if the past 30 years’ extraordinary period of wealth creation is coming to an end, but it’s clearly slowing. The world is still making more billionaires, but most of them are in Asia. Furthermore, total billionaire wealth across the 14 markets we study has fallen. In 2015, the billionaire population in our defined markets effec- tively grew by just 50 to 1,397. Billionaires’ total wealth fell by a total of USD 300bn, declining from USD 5.4trn to USD 5.1trn. Average wealth fell from USD 4.0bn in 2014 to USD 3.7bn in 2015. After two decades of outperforming global stock markets, bil- lionaires’ fortunes failed to match them. They fell 5%, against a flat MSCI World Index (down 0.3%). Over the past 20 years, billionaire wealth has increased by a factor of seven, double the MSCI World Index’s 3.5. Furthermore, in 2015, neither billio- naires nor the stock market matched the economy’s expansion. Global GDP grew 2.4%, down from 2.6% in 2014, according to the World Bank. Billionaire wealth was volatile. One self-made billionaire we in- terviewed explained that: “Taking risks requires a certain belief that the future will be better. And currently uncertainty levels are unprecedented.” Wealth generation and growth thrive best when entrepreneurial conditions meet stable macroeconomics. While billionaires are well equipped in navigating risks in such environments, one multigenerational entrepreneur voiced si- milar concerns, saying protectionism and increasing economic uncertainty are raising risk levels. In 2015, 210 people joined the ranks of billionaires. More than half of them were based in Asia, where young business people are getting wealthy fast in sectors like real estate. But 160 also dropped off our database. Billionaires in the materials sector experienced the greatest fall in wealth (down 17%). Slumping metal and hydrocarbon prices hit the fortunes of mining and energy billionaires worldwide. In just one year, this sector’s average wealth fell by almost a fifth. Wealth in other sectors also fell, although by a smaller percen- tage. Billionaires in the Industrials sector saw their wealth drop 12% and those in consumer & retail, the wealthiest sector, by 8%. Even technology and financial services, historically areas of in- novation, had a flat year. Average wealth in the former did not move, while in the latter it fell 3%. THE GILDED AGE PAUSES VOLATILITY AND INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFER
  • 10. 10 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 Wealth creation dips (progress of in-scope billionaire wealth 1995 to 2015) MSCI World 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 6.0 trn 5.0 trn 4.0 trn 3.0 trn 2.0 trn 1.0 trn © UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016 © UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016 x 7.0 MSCI World® EuropeUS APAC Asian financial crisis Global financial crisis Dotcom bubble x 3.5 The sector makes a difference (wealth distribution 2014 to 2015) 2014 2015 (%) Percentual change In USD trillion (trn) Consumer &retail Technology Financial services Materials Realestate Entertainment &media Industrials Other Health industries 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 -8% -3% -2% -2% +2%-0%-17% -12%+0%
  • 11. 11 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 The makeup of 2015’s new billionaires Split by wealth band Split by generation Split by region © UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016 Self-made 170 150 2 9 29 29 Europe 26.7% (56) US 19.5% (41) APAC 53.8% (113) 13 18 <2bn 1st<5bn 2nd<10bn 3rd>10bn >4th 81% 71%19% 29% Multigenerational US Europe APACSelf-made Multigenerational 76% 55% 56%24% Most of 2015’s new billionaires were entrepreneurs and from Asia. One hundred and fifty of the 210 were self-made and 113 from Asia. Most of the 60 inheriting their fortunes in 2015 were from Europe. Dilution ensured that these new multigenerational rich tended to be less wealthy than their self-made peers. But volatility in the number of billionaires is not just down to busi- ness risks. It’s said that nothing in life is certain except death and taxes. As the global billionaire population ages, some are dropping off the list as their wealth passes to the next genera- tion. US FLATTENS OUT Just as the US is home to the world’s largest collection of billionaires, so it sets the scene in billionaire trends. Almost half (47%) of billionaire wealth in our database is based in the US, yet in 2015 its billionaire population rose by just five. Further, total US billionaire wealth fell by 6% – from USD 2.6trn to USD 2.4trn. While 41 people broke through the billion dollar ceiling, 36 dropped out. So the US is still creating a few new billionaires but its billionaire wealth is flagging. There appear to be good reasons for this. Commodity price deflation and family wealth transfer reduced billionaire wealth. At the same time, the mo- tors of this gilded age in the US stalled. Wealth in both the technology and finance sectors was flat during the year. Young money fared better than old. Self-made billionaires’ wealth fell by just 4%, from an average of USD 4.7bn per in- dividual to USD 4.5bn. The number of multigenerational bil- lionaires’ fell by far more, by a sixth (16%), with the average fortune falling from USD 5.1bn to USD 4.3bn. While business volatility accounted for more than half of this fall (61%), almost a third (31%) was due to the dilution that happens during we- alth handovers. Symbolising America’s culture of free enterprise and wealth creation, self-made wealth overtook inherited wealth. These self-made men and women have driven change in the Techno- logy, Finance and Consumer & Retail sectors in the last three decades. LESSONS FROM EUROPE Contradicting common perceptions, and in spite of Europe’s economic difficulties, its billionaires are proving most resilient. Their total wealth was almost unchanged in 2015 at USD 1.3trn (a small fall of 3%). When it comes to multigenerational billio- naires, Europe now ranks first in terms of number of billionai- res and a close second to the US in terms of multigenerational wealth. Europe was the home to 56 new billionaires in 2015 – more than the US. But most (59%) inherited their wealth or at least the majo- rity of it. After 44 drop-offs, this amounted to a net increase of 12, lifting the region’s total billionaire population to 339. “Europe is leading in wealth preservation.” Europe is leading the world in wealth preservation. Its multige- nerational billionaires survived 2015 far better than their peers in other markets. Their average wealth fell just 7%, from USD 4.1bn to USD 3.8bn. As one second-generation southern Eu- ropean billionaire told us: “While ten years ago, our business was the growth engine to our family wealth, in recent years it has gone the opposite way. We use the returns from our private assets to support our business, allowing us to maintain and ex- pand our market share against our competitors.” The region’s relatively small group of self-made billionaires experienced a similar fall in wealth. On average, their fortunes fell 8%, from USD 3.8bn to USD 3.5bn.
  • 12. 12 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 A NEW ASIAN BILLIONAIRE EVERY THREE DAYS They say that Asia creates a new billionaire every week. But our data reveals that, in fact, China’s surging economy meant that 2015 saw one new Asian billionaire every three days. In spite of moderating economic growth rates, China’s accelerated economic evolution is creating ideal conditions for young entre- preneurs to get rich fast. Asia’s entrepreneurs dominate the list of new billionaires. One hundred and thirteen Asian entrepreneurs, 80 of them from China (average age 53), attained billionaire status during 2015, more than half (54%) of the global total. There has been a surge in China’s billionaire population in the past two years. In 2014 and 2015, China accounted for 69% and 71% of Asia’s new billionaires, up from 35% as recently as 2009. (In absolute terms, there were 92 new Chinese billionaires in 2014. By contrast, in the four years from 2010 to 2013 between 12 and 58 people a year joined the billionaire ranks.) Almost half of these came from the technology (19%), consumer & retail (15%) and real estate (15%) sectors. E-commerce businesses are in the ascendancy. At the same time, many of the country’s wealthy are diversifying out of their existing businesses into real estate. Moreover, China’s urbani- zation and increasing consumer spending have fostered an environment where businesses are growing fast. Yet billionaire wealth can be fleeting in China. Forty of the country’s tycoons lost billionaire status in the year as asset price volatility and government scrutiny undermined wealth. While China’s billionaire wealth rose by 5.4%, billionaire wealth across the region fell by 6%, from USD 1.6trn to USD 1.5trn (this fall was less in local currencies due to US dollar appreci- ation). Outside China, Hong Kong and India had the highest number of new billionaires, with 11 each. Far more billionaires in Asia lost their billionaire status than in Europe or the US. Eighty fell off our database in 2015, against 44 in Europe and 36 in the US, respectively. In addition to China’s 40 fallers, there were 16 in India – a country where falling commodity prices had an impact. The number of billionaires is growing… US Europe APAC 2014 201420142015 20152015 Drop-offs Drop-offs Drop-offs New entrants New entrants New entrants -36 -80 -44 +41 +113 +56 533 487 327 538 520 339 +1% +7% +4% © UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016 … but their wealth is going down US Europe APAC-6% -3% -6% -4% -8% -13% -16% -7% -9% Self-made Multigenerational Self-made Multigenerational Self-made Multigenerational 0.9trn 0.7trn 0.7trn 0.3trn0.8trn 0.2trn 1.7trn 0.6trn 1.3trn 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 Average wealth in USD bn Average wealth in USD bn Average wealth in USD bn 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 1.6trn 2.6trn 1.3trn 1.3trn 1.6trn2.4trn 1.5trn 4.7 3.8 3.2 3.25.1 4.1 3.54.3 3.8 4.5 3.5 2.8 0.6trn 1.3trn © UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
  • 13. 13 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 In spite of moderating economic growth rates, China’s accelerated economic evolution is creating ideal conditions for young entrepreneurs to get rich fast.
  • 14. 14 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 As great wealth trickles down the generations, its goals will change.
  • 15. 15 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 A 2.1 TRILLION DOLLAR INHERITANCE Most of the world’s billionaires have made their money in the last 20 years, and now they are aging. In this time, billionaire wealth has grown by approximately seven times. So by far the biggest handover ever to the next generation is about to happen. We estimate that 460 of the billionaires in the markets we cover will pass USD 2.1trn, the same as India’s entire GDP in 2015, to the next generation over the coming 20 years. Even billionaires grow old. One-third of billionaires in our data- base are more than 70 years old, while they hold 40% of the group’s total wealth. It is therefore reasonable to assume that they are in what we call the corridor of wealth transfer. For the younger Asian economies, especially China, this will be the first-ever major intergenerational wealth transfer. Our research shows that 85% of Asian billionaires are first generation. We expect this critical handover to have significant implications. As great wealth trickles down the generations, its goals will change. We are already seeing the early stages of what we expect to be an upsurge in philanthropy. It is also likely that many heirs will be prepared for ownership rather than management – especially in emerging markets where entrepreneurs have often built complex conglomerates. One emerging markets billionai- re told us that market dynamics and regulatory and political changes mean there is no guarantee his business will exist in 15 years’ time. Accordingly, he has no plans to burden his children with a duty to continue their father’s business, given its uncertain future. WHAT MAKES MILLENNIALS TICK? In our first 2015 Billionaire report, we characterised first- generation billionaires as business-focused, determined and smart risk takers. Their heirs are naturally different. Rather than being focused on the single goal of building businesses, they tend to have wider sets of values. An advisor, who has several billionaire families as clients, attributed the difference partly to the wide range of life choices available now. “Today’s next gens are facing a much wider array of options due to better education, digitization and technology. This amplifies the importance of purpose and meaning for them when choosing what to do and what not to do.” This contrast can be most extreme in emerging markets. Often, the parents have grown up in poverty, forging their fortunes in the early days of market economies. In Russia, they might have managed privatized mines. In China, they could be early real estate entrepreneurs. Coming from a family with relatively young wealth, it is often difficult for the next gen to find them- selves and develop their own personality. “They just have a big weight to carry,” said one of our interviewed billionaires. In order to identify the characteristics of the next generations of millennials, the most different of the next generations, we reviewed an array of survey analysis and case studies, as well as conducting more than 30 face-to-face interviews. Our re- search and analysis identified three goals and values. These are: business first, values not valuables, identity through philanthropy. The demographics tell the story US Europe APAC 2.4trn 1.3trn 1.5trn 52% 1.3trn 50% 0.6trn 80% 1.2trn 48% 1.1trn 50% 0.6trn 20% 0.3trn 40% (2.1trn) Total wealth = USD 5.2trn 60% (3.1trn) < 70 years of age > 70 years of age–Rounding differences might occur © UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
  • 16. 16 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 1. Business first Those young multigenerational billionaires putting business first are typically highly entrepreneurial, and keen to develop their own role in the family. Sometimes they are being primed to manage their family businesses, learning by taking up managerial roles to start with. Just as often, however, they may start new businesses either within the firm or entirely separate from it. These businesses are frequently linked to the digital economy. Several of our interviewees told us about how their initial ven- tures were seeded. “My father encouraged me very early on to take risks with a certain amount of funds,” said one. “He would oversee my business plans and steps but also create that space where I was allowed to fail. At the beginning, seeing my ideas challenged was frustrating but eventually the learning curve was tremendously steep and today I see my father as a coach and partner, joining up my business ideas.” 2. Values not valuables Many of the millennial generation inheriting billionaire wealth believe in doing good by doing well. In other words, they see business success as a way of benefiting society. Their business goals must deliver not only returns to the family, but also tangible benefits to a wide group of stakeholders – inclu- ding employees, customers and society at large. While corporate sustainability in the past has often been accused of “green- washing”, these young billionaires are passionately committed to their cause. One related how he was not interested in his father’s main electronics business but wanted to work in the family agri- culture business. His goal: to make it even more sustainable. 3. Identity through philanthropy Some young multigenerational billionaires are inspired by philanthropy. Growing up at a time of rapid social change, they are eager to put their resources to work for social good. More than previous generations, they bring business discipline and strategy to philanthropy. They want their giving to make an impact – and they want to be able to measure it. OWNERS NOT MANAGERS In contrast to their parents, many of the next generation, especially millennials, are being prepared as owners not mana- gers. With more choice about how to live their lives, fewer are choosing to go into the family business. They are preparing to become stewards of either the family business or the family’s investments after cashing out. With traditional businesses under threat of disruption, we sometimes hear of billionaire entrepreneurs being concerned about the longevity risks to their business, with some hoping their “digital native” children will stir the business in times of change. In parts of Asia and emerging markets such as Russia, handing over diverse corporate empires to untested heirs is hard. These large empires rely on personal connections for their continued success. Such is their complexity that they are difficult for a young person to manage. For China’s one-child families, it may be even harder to find a suitable heir. Sometimes cashing out will be the only choice, although some families might choose instead to appoint external managers. Over the next 20 years of wealth transfer, there will be more multigenerational billionaires than ever before. Globally, fewer will remain in the family business, choosing instead to assert their identities as entrepreneurs and social entrepreneurs in their own right. A billionaire family head told us he used to believe his children would not be interested in the family business. But as they grew their careers and started taking part in the family affairs, they brought long-needed revitalisation and fresh creativity to the family wealth. The patriarch put it as follows: “They are driving new business on their own and taking our family wealth into a portfolio structure, but they also brought us optimism that our legacy will be sustained.” Europe best protects what it creates US Europe APAC 363 157 444 112 98 6035 35 1328 49 3 1st gen 1st gen 1st gen2nd gen 2nd gen 2nd gen3rd gen 3rd gen 3rd gen>4th gen >4th gen >4th gen 67% 46% 85%33% 54% 15% © UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
  • 17. 17 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 For cultural, business and political reasons there are likely to be variations on this theme. Traditionally, US families have tended to cash out, while more Europeans have elected to keep their businesses. In Asia, our experience of the older Southeast Asian economies and of China leads us to expect some to adopt a private equity-holding company style of model. This is a logical method to preserve wealth in a region where it is sometimes difficult for heirs to take over family businesses. In the words of one Chinese millennial heir apparent: “I am not so interested in taking over the family business. It’s a business I don’t feel passionate about. I would prefer us to sell the busi- ness and then reinvest in other companies. Not buying stocks, but actively managing those companies and learning about dif- ferent sectors.” In contrast to their parents, many of the next generation, especially millennials, are being prepared as owners not managers.
  • 18. 18 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 As people live longer, inherited wealth may be split between several generations.
  • 19. 19 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 OLD LEGACIES’ LESSONS FOR NEW BILLIONAIRES Billionaire wealth lasts less time than thought. While it is commonly held that the first-generation wealthy make it and the third-generation break it, our research shows billionaire status to be short-lived. Self-made billionaires almost never have grandchildren who are also billionaires. In fact, of the billionaire fortunes that have fallen below the billion-dollar mark since 1995, 90% were not preserved beyond the first and second generations. More than two-thirds (70%) have not remained intact beyond the first generation, and a further fifth (20%) were gone by the end of the second. There are two broad reasons why fortunes drop below a billion dollars: dilution (including ineffective governance and no clear succession planning) and business and market risks (including failure to understand risks and disruptive technologies). Dilution occurs when a billionaire dies and his/her wealth is split among the next generation, none of whom inherit enough to be billio- naires in their own right. As people live longer, inherited wealth may be split between several generations. In our first billionaire study, published in 2015, we showed how generational algebra affects a billionaire family where each family member has an average of three children. By the fifth generation, an original USD 1 bn would translate into a USD 12m inheritance for each child. However, if three generations live concurrently, for example, and wealth is split equally, then wealth dilutes far more quickly. EUROPE LEADS IN WEALTH PRESERVATION Old legacies offer lessons for new billionaires. While the US and Asia are creating new billionaire fortunes more successfully, Europe’s billionaires have proved more successful at passing their billionaire status to the following generations. In Europe, over half (54%) of them transfer their billionaire status to the next generation. Mapping of markets shows Europe, and especially Germany and Switzerland, as the markets with the greatest share of “old” or multigenerational wealth globally. They have become masters of preserving wealth, with billionaire families thriving through the generations as their businesses continue to create wealth. In the United States, by contrast, billionaires have frequently chosen to cash out of their businesses, and their wealth has not lasted so long. In Asia, Singapore and India have a high number of multigenerational billionaires. The newest markets, with almost no multigenerational billionaires, are China and Russia. The UK and Singapore are interesting as international centres that attract billionaires from other countries. Counterintuitively, our analysis shows the UK’s popularity for first-generation billi- onaires and Singapore’s for multigenerational wealth. Europe’s high share of multigenerational wealth is not just due to its less entrepreneurial culture. Its billionaire families have built wealth preservation models, based in part on family busi- nesses, that may prove useful to billionaires in newer markets. The decline of wealth across generations since 1995 780 6% 4% 1st genTotal drop-offs since 1995 2nd gen 3rd gen >4th gen 90% 10% 70% 20% © UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016 Generational algebra compounds the challenge of wealth dilution (illustrative) 1st gen 1 3 9 27 81 1,000 333 111 37 12 25.0 8.3 2.7 0.9 0.3 2nd gen 3rd gen 4th gen 5th gen No. members Ø wealth (in m.) Ø dividend (in m.)* * ROA of 2.5% assumed© UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
  • 20. 20 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 Successful legacies excel in having a sensible and clear family governance/vision and maintaining a stable business across the generations. If the family business preserves family wealth, then it is vital to have a governance model that prioritises the firm’s interests over the family’s. Our research shows that Europe’s billionaire families tend to have benefited from making important contributions to society and the economy. Furthermore, historically they have not been subject to punitive inheritance tax rules. But there are other lessons that the new crop of billionaires can learn from when planning and structuring legacies. There are three issues to consider: 1. Business continuity For many European billionaire families, the business has linked the generations. It has nurtured the family fortune and provi- ded a focal point. Often, successive generations of the family have become entrepreneurs who have adapted the enterprise to new challenges and opportunities. 2. Governance As generations pass, the number of family shareholders grows. Only strong governance can align them. In our 2015 study we identified the two types of governance – “family over firm” and “firm over family”. Regardless of which is chosen, good gover- nance protects against unprepared heirs and family differences of opinion. 3. Values Ultimately, long-lasting family legacies all have a common philo- sophy and understanding of their purpose and values. Whether formally articulated in a family charter, or informally communi- cated, this glues family members together, providing a common identity that binds them. Common interests like a family estate or philanthropic organization can enshrine values. The geography of old and new wealth Shareofmultigenerationalbillionaires Switzerland Germany Italy France India Singapore Hong Kong United States China Russia United Kingdom Japan Spain Turkey No. of billionaires (log scale)APACEuropeUS 100 1,000 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 45% 40% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 10 Bubble size indicates total wealth per market © UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
  • 21. 21 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 One millennial German family member explained: “Now that we are in the third generation, we realise that the family has to withdraw from actively managing our business and focus instead on aligning ownership interests. In line with this strategic decision, we want to be sure that the business will follow our family values, so it gives us not only financial means but a common identity that keeps us cousins together. This beco- mes more important as we all do our own thing. I have my own business interests focusing on start-ups in the media. And two of my cousins are very involved in philanthropy.” “Long-lasting family legacies all have a common philosophy” Within Europe, 69% of self-made billionaires have chosen to keep their wealth in private firms rather than cash out. This compares with60%intheUS.ManyofEurope’sbillionairescontrolcompanies with strong competitive advantages and barriers to entry, in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and consumer & retail. Their profitability tends to be resilient, preserving family wealth through generations. However, in other markets preserving wealth in this way may not be practicable. In the US, a large number of self-made billionaires choose to cash out or pass much of their wealth to philanthropic causes. The millennial generation may prefer not to be actively involved in the original family business. Meanwhile, business cul- ture and political reality in some emerging markets may make cashing out necessary. In these cases, it is likely that there will be a growth in structuring through private equity-type holding struc- tures of family assets. A member of one family of entrepreneurs spoke about how they treasure their core business yet, at the same time, are actively looking to pursue direct investments to leverage their capital and network. In this way, they are seeking new opportunities for growth while concurrently diversifying the risks. Yet, family values will be essential for preserving wealth. Asian billionaires may be able to learn from Europe’s successful wealth preservation model. Yet in China, where many families still have only one child, there will be no choice but to go out- side the family for managers. This will lead to adoption of the firm-over-family governance model. Private or public ownership – the legacy options of self-made billionaires in 2015 US Europe APAC 363 157 44460% 69% 65% 6% 11% Total Total TotalPrivate firm Minority of shares listed, firm still in family ownership Private firm Private firmPublic firm or cash out Public firm or cash out Public firm or cash out 54% 58% 39% 40% 31% 35% 26% © UBS/PwC Billionaires Report 2016
  • 22. 22 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 PHILANTHROPY’S NEW AGE: TIME FOR MORE ENTREPRENEURIALISM? Just as philanthropy surged following the First Gilded Age, so the past 35 years’ growth of billionaire wealth is driving its expansion now. Yet if billionaires applied the characteristics they bring to their businesses, then they could be more effective. In the first half of the twentieth century, entrepreneurial families such as the Carnegies and Rockefellers funded significant de- velopments in areas such as education and health. When doing so, they leveraged some of the billionaires’ characteristic traits – chiefly business focus and smart risk taking – to drive success. After more than three decades of this Second Gilded Age, billi- onaire philanthropy is growing all over the world. New philanth- ropic models are emerging (loans, guarantees, contracts, impact investing, etc.), and the millennial generation is putting philan- thropy at the heart of family values. In spite of this, however, the current Gilded Age may not match its predecessor’s record. There is a lot to learn from the first philanthropists. Like them, this generation would do well to leverage their trademark business characteristics. Putting these traits into the context of the present day, they should seek to be more strategic, take risks and collaborate. 1. Focused strategy Many private philanthropists struggle between purely following their passion and thinking strategically about its potential benefits. They also have difficulties assessing impact. Much work on aligning approaches to social impact measurement is taking place, yet private philanthropists are not always aware of this. There is a need to be more strategic and to adopt best practice in measurement. 2. Smart risk taking It has been argued that private philanthropy should be the risk capital for the social and development sectors. Private philanth- ropists can, in theory, take greater risks than others, and have a longer-term view, as they face fewer accountability constraints than others. Yet few are willing to take these risks, although that is precisely what the complex problems they aim to solve require. 3. Active collaboration Human nature is individualistic and philanthropists want to shape programs themselves. In practice, humanity’s most intract- able problems can only be solved with greater cooperation and cross-sector approaches. This must be combined with activism, which assesses a problem and commits to solving it, while taking a flexible approach. Perhaps the most important of these three areas is strategy. Rising billionaire philanthropy could have significant benefits for society and the environment. Quite how significant will depend on the extent to which billionaire entrepreneurs apply some of the characteristics that have made their businesses successful.
  • 23. 23 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 Rising billionaire philanthropy could have significant benefits for society and the environment.
  • 24. 24 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 We will see a huge handover of wealth to the next generation, many of whom will be millennials, whose primary interests may lie outside the family business.
  • 25. 25 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 OUTLOOK The Second Gilded Age has paused. Wealth transfer and com- modity price deflation are putting billionaires under pressure at a time when technology and finance, the motors of great wealth creation, have stalled. This is chiefly a US phenome- non, but even in Asia billionaire wealth has stopped growing. The notable exception to this trend is China, where billionaires continue to thrive. DILUTION AHEAD With many billionaires over 70, significant dilution of billionaire fortunes lies ahead. We will see a huge handover of wealth to their heirs, many of whom will be millennials whose primary interests may lie outside the family business. There will also be continued volatility of wealth for business reasons. Without care- ful planning, many of today’s fortunes will suffer substantial erosion. SOCIETY GAINS In the years to come, the whole of society will benefit from this age of great wealth creation. All over the world, this gene- ration of billionaires, and their idealistic heirs, are committing wealth to philanthropy on a greater scale than ever. Whether today’s billionaires match the achievements of the Carnegies and Rockefellers, however, will depend on whether they apply their business skills to philanthropy. WHAT NEXT FOR THE GILDED AGE? 2015’s data alone does not set a trend. We expect financial asset performance and economic growth to create a favourable environment for billionaire wealth creation in 2016 and 2017. For financial investors, global equity and credit markets are expected to deliver positive returns. For entrepreneurs and portfolio investors, UBS forecasts the global economy will grow 5.6% (in nominal terms) in 2016 and a further 6.1% in 2017. Finally, over 80% of the entrepreneurs in our UBS Industry Leader Network have consistently reported stable or improving business outlooks in 2016.
  • 26. 26 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 RESEARCH BACKGROUND A few words about the research and sources A number of sources were utilised to research and profile the characteristics of wealthy individuals. These were blended into a mosaic analytical framework from which we conducted extensive modeling and analysis. This information and data are part of PwC proprietary data and analytics structures and are noncommercial in nature and specifically nonattributable regar- ding the identity of any underlying individual or family. PwC acts as a supplier of data and analysis for the purpose of this report. In addition the following were specifically leveraged as a part of our research: • PwC has a significant body of research drawn from publishing studies on Wealth and Private Banking, and Family Busines- ses including current and future perspectives on a number of industries from which we were able to derive insights. These include but are not limited to Next Generation Survey of Family Business Leaders 2016, Banking Tax 2020, 18th Annual Global CEO Survey: A Private Company View (2015), Global Family Business Survey: Up Close and Professional (2014) and, from our network firm INTES: Nachfolge im Fami- lienunternehmen (2015). Further, UBS’s body of research and insights in Wealth and Private Banking were leveraged. These include but are not limited to the UBS House View Year Ahead 2016:theanswersfor2016,UBSHouseViewYearsAhead:our 5-7 year view, UBS Investor Watch, The Global Family OfficeReport2015,UBSPhilanthropyCompass,UBS-INSEAD Study on Family Philanthropy in Asia, and the UBS - Harvard study, From Prosperity to Purpose. • Other analysis is based on our proprietary PwC databases that covers non-client-specific detailed bottom-up data on approximately 1,400 billionaires from the US, Germany, UK, France, Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Spain, China, India, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and, Russia. This is a private, non- commercial data structure designed to support analysis of specific market segments. • Specific interviews with a number of billionaires and a num- ber of next gen‘s of billionaires in various geographies were conducted by PwC and UBS separately and the information from those qualitative discussions were incorporated on a nonattributable basis without regard to any business/client relationship with any person, firm or organization. Further, we conducted over 20 interviews with billionaire advisors. • For the long-term series of the MSCI and GDP data we used the MSCI World gross data (accessed on 05/2016) and the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects database (accessed 05/2016) respectively. The UBS Industry Leader Network is a global network of entrepreneurs and business leaders in privately held companies.
  • 27. 27 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016 DISCLAIMER This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice of any kind. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific profes- sional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, neither PwC nor any affiliate of UBS Group accepts or as- sumes any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any conse- quences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. No affiliate of UBS Group nor any of their employees provide tax or legal advice. You should consult with your personal tax or legal advisor regarding your personal circumstances. No affiliate of UBS Group nor PwC accepts or assumes any liability, responsi- bility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information cont- ained in this publication or for any decision based on it. PwC and UBS Financial Services Inc. are not affiliated. UBS Financial Services Inc. is a subsidiary of UBS AG. Member FINRA/SIPC. As a firm providing wealth management services to clients, UBS Financial Services, Inc is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as an investment adviser and a broker-dealer, offering both investment advisory and brokerage services. Advisory services and brokerage services are separate and distinct, differ in material ways and are governed by dif- ferent laws and separate contracts. It is important that you care- fully read the agreements and disclosures UBS provides to you about the products or services offered. For more information, please visit our website at www.ubs.com/workingwithus. For further information please contact: Áine Bryn – Global FS Marketing Director, PwC UK +44 207 212 8839 aine.bryn@uk.pwc.com – www.pwc.com/fs Tim Cobb – Wealth Management Communications, UBS AG +41 44 234 84 09 tim.cobb@ubs.com – www.ubs.com © 2016 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC net- work and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. © 2016 UBS 2016. The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved. © 2016 UBS Financial Services Inc. All rights reserved. Member SIPC. All other trademarks, registered trademarks, service marks and registered service marks are of their respective companies. UBS Financial Services Inc. www.ubs.com/financialservicesinc UBS Financial Services Inc. is a subsidiary of UBS AG. 84645E 27 UBS/PWC BILLIONAIRES 2016