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Practicing Data Science: A Collection of Case Studies

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This is a review of case studies: from easy to complex, from standard to creative. We'll start with a classic churn prediction classification problem and move to another classic - demand prediction. Then we'll determine if and how much easy, standard model training can be automatized. Finally, we'll review a few more creative case studies like AI generated rap songs or neuro-styling of passport images. First presented by Rosaria Silipo (KNIME) at Strata New York, September 2019.

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© 2018 KNIME AG. All Right Reserved. Practicing Data Science A Collection of Case Studies Rosaria.Silipo@knime.com @KNIME Strata New York , September 24 2019
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. A few Words about me 2 • I am Rosaria Silipo • Principal Data Scientist at KNIME • At least 20 years analyzing data • Generally interesting projects become Case Studies • 23 case studies collected in a book • Almost 24
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. A Classic Data Science Project It always starts with some data … 3 Data Preparation Model Training Model Optimization Deployment Data Manipulation Data Blending Missing Values Handling Feature Generation Dimensionality Reduction Feature Selection Outlier Removal Normalization Partitioning … Model Training Bag of Models Model Selection Ensemble Models Own Ensemble Model External Models Import Existing Models Model Factory … Parameter Tuning Parameter Optimization Regularization Model Size No. Iterations … Performance Measures Accuracy ROC Curve Cross-Validation … Files & DBs Dashboards REST API SQL Code Export Reporting … Model Testing
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. 4 Customer Intelligence: Churn Prediction
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Churn Prediction: The Problem CRM System Data about your customer • Demographics • Behavior • Revenues Model • Churn Prediction • Upselling Likelihood • Product Propensity /NBO • Campaign Management • Customer Segmentation • … 5
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Churn Prediction: The Training Workflow 6
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Churn Prediction: The Deployment Workflow 7 YouTube: “Building a basic Model for Churn Prediction with KNIME” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHsO10q7e2Y EXAMPLES Server: 50_Applications/18_Churn_Prediction
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. 9 Demand Prediction (Taxi)
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Demand Prediction: The Problem 10 How many taxi do I need in NYC on Wednesday at 12:00? How many customers? How many kW? How many diapers?
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Demand Prediction: The Training Workflow 11 Training set Test set R2 = 0.81
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Demand Prediction: Deployment 12 On Wednesday at 12:00 we need 13k taxis
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Automated Machine Learning 13
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Interaction Points Business analysts will simply access the KNIME WebPortal from any web browser.
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Automated Machine Learning: Just how much? 15 https://towardsdatascience.com/automated- machine-learning-just-how-much-7330fd4f882e
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Fraud/Anomaly Detection 16
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Fraud Detection: The Problem 17 Transactions • Trx 1 • Trx 2 • Trx 3 • Trx 4 • Trx 5 • Trx 6 • … Model • Good • Good • Good • Fraud • Good • Good • …
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Fraud Detection: without Fraud Examples – Auto-encoder 18 • Trained with Back- Propagation on just “normal” transactions • If distance > threshold => possible fraud distance
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Fraud Detection: without Fraud Examples
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Fraud Detection deployed Suspicious Transaction
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. 21 Creative AI
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Creative AI: The Problems • Free Text Generation – Simulating a writing style – Writing in different languages – Providing an answer in a specific style – Generating Candidates for Product Names • Image Neuro-Styling – Picasso – Botero – Matisse – Manet – … 22
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Deep Learning LSTM Network 23 One-hotencodedcharacter Characterprobabilities e - s- u – o - h o - u- s - e - <space>
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Creative AI: The Training Workflow 24
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Creative AI: The Deployment Workflow 25
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Creative AI: Deployment and Results Yo! This post is about generating free text with a deep learning network particularly it is about Brick X6, Phey, cabe, make you feel soom the way (I smoke good!) I probably make (What?) More money in six months, Than what's in your papa's safe (I'm serious) Look like I robbed a bank (Okay Okay) I set it off like Queen Latifah 'Cause I'm living single I'm feeling cautious I ain't scream when they served a subpoena (Can't go back to jail) I heard that he a leader (Who pood, what to be f*****' up The baugerout Black alro Black X6, Phantom White X6 looks like a panda Goin' out like I'm Montana Hundred killers, hundred hammers Black X6, Phantom White X6, panda Pockets swole, Danny Sellin' bar, candy Man I'm the macho like Randy The choppa go Oscar for Grammy B**** n**** pull up ya panty Hope you killas understand me Hey Panda, Panda Panda, Panda, Panda, Panda, Panda I got broads in Atlanta Twistin' dope, lean, and the Fanta Credit cards and the scammers Hittin' off licks in the bando 26 This License refers to version of the GNU General Public License. Copyright also means copyright-bick, Remade me any thing to his sword To his salt and most hidden loose to be so for sings, but not in a libutt of his matter than that shall be sure as will be soldye As master compary, do not live in traitor. Bless thy five wits! -Kent O pity! Sir, where is the patience now, That this is so far from the sea and some bidings to dismantle So many folds of save and honest. -Brabantio I must not think the Turk of Cassio in the strange metting the cribles of a charmer be the reviling of libe to say That I can deceive him to the best advantage, In her prophetic fairs of a little to presently at your powers; whereof I thank you, sir. -Albany Gloucester, I will prove upancy of his sport and first accuriors and guard and talking on the white. -King Lear Where are the thief? Thou shalt never have the captains at the letter To the Moor and thing we have not the better shall be sure as worth if he be anger— -Regan I pray you, have a countend more than think to do a proclaim’d there of my heart, Hot The words save, honest, thief, master, traitor, and deceive seem to fit the context. Notice also that the dialogue sprouting from the start text of the license agreement interestingly involves mainly minor, less tragic characters from the plays. Caro amico ti scrivo così mi distraggo un po'E siccome sei molto lontano più forte ti scriverò. Da quella prima folla strana, che aveva preso il suo nome, e di correre alla casa di don Abbondio, con un viso bene di non poterci andar la casa del padre Cristoforo, e gli disse che s'avvicinava all'uscio, e si mise a sparse di corsa, e di stare a sé, verso la strada di servizio, chiesto le parole che gli andavan dall'altra stanza, e con la sua condizione de' cappuccini, e di consigli ricerche di confidenza delle gride, nel suo passaggio, se non pensava con una certa ripugnanza a casa sua, che andavano a scomparire in un campo di buone ragioni che avevan potuto raccogliere i suoi pensieri, e di sopra non senza interrogare, che la sua avventura aveva fatto predicare, e con la forza d'un fatto come fuggitive che aveva preso il suo nome, e di correre alla casa di don Abbondio, con un cappuccino di quella sorte, con un certo sospiro, alzando le sue finestre, e le diede un'occhiata in carrozza. Si vendano a metter nelle mani di chi era stato a sedere sur una strada così fatta con le braccia in
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Image Neuro-Styling 27
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Rosaria Neuro-Styling 28 original Picasso Matisse Caravaggio BoteroRenoir Notre Dame TapestryManet Magritte Van Gogh Artemisia
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Image Neuro-Styling: Workflow 29 Python code To Web Browser From Web Browser
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. KNIME Fall Summit 2019 November 5 – 8 at AT&T Executive Education and Conference Center, Austin, Texas • Tuesday & Wednesday: One-day courses • Thursday & Friday: Summit sessions Use the Promo Code STRATA-NY-2019 by October 1 for Early Bird Discount! Register at knime.com/fall-summit2019
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Free Book as a Thank You Free Copy of e-book: “Practicing Data Science. A Collection of Case Studies” from KNIME Press https://www.knime.com/knimepress with this code: STRATA-NY-2019 Expiration date: Dec/31/2019 - 23:59 33
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. KNIME Hub (https://hub.knime.com) 34
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. You can find KNIMers here! 35 • KNIME (www.knime.com) • BLOG for news, tips and tricks(www.knime.com/blog) • FORUM for questions and answers (tech.knime.com/forum) • EXAMPLES SERVER for example workflows • E-LEARNING COURSE (https://www.knime.com/knime-introductory-course ) • KNIME TV channel on • KNIME on @KNIME • KNIME on https://www.facebook.com/KNIMEanalytics • s
© 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. 36 The KNIME® trademark and logo and OPEN FOR INNOVATION® trademark are used by KNIME AG under license from KNIME GmbH, and are registered in the United States. KNIME® is also registered in Germany.

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Practicing Data Science: A Collection of Case Studies

  • 1. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Right Reserved. Practicing Data Science A Collection of Case Studies Rosaria.Silipo@knime.com @KNIME Strata New York , September 24 2019
  • 2. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. A few Words about me 2 • I am Rosaria Silipo • Principal Data Scientist at KNIME • At least 20 years analyzing data • Generally interesting projects become Case Studies • 23 case studies collected in a book • Almost 24
  • 3. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. A Classic Data Science Project It always starts with some data … 3 Data Preparation Model Training Model Optimization Deployment Data Manipulation Data Blending Missing Values Handling Feature Generation Dimensionality Reduction Feature Selection Outlier Removal Normalization Partitioning … Model Training Bag of Models Model Selection Ensemble Models Own Ensemble Model External Models Import Existing Models Model Factory … Parameter Tuning Parameter Optimization Regularization Model Size No. Iterations … Performance Measures Accuracy ROC Curve Cross-Validation … Files & DBs Dashboards REST API SQL Code Export Reporting … Model Testing
  • 4. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. 4 Customer Intelligence: Churn Prediction
  • 5. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Churn Prediction: The Problem CRM System Data about your customer • Demographics • Behavior • Revenues Model • Churn Prediction • Upselling Likelihood • Product Propensity /NBO • Campaign Management • Customer Segmentation • … 5
  • 6. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Churn Prediction: The Training Workflow 6
  • 7. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Churn Prediction: The Deployment Workflow 7 YouTube: “Building a basic Model for Churn Prediction with KNIME” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHsO10q7e2Y EXAMPLES Server: 50_Applications/18_Churn_Prediction
  • 8. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. 9 Demand Prediction (Taxi)
  • 9. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Demand Prediction: The Problem 10 How many taxi do I need in NYC on Wednesday at 12:00? How many customers? How many kW? How many diapers?
  • 10. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Demand Prediction: The Training Workflow 11 Training set Test set R2 = 0.81
  • 11. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Demand Prediction: Deployment 12 On Wednesday at 12:00 we need 13k taxis
  • 12. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Automated Machine Learning 13
  • 13. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Interaction Points Business analysts will simply access the KNIME WebPortal from any web browser.
  • 14. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Automated Machine Learning: Just how much? 15 https://towardsdatascience.com/automated- machine-learning-just-how-much-7330fd4f882e
  • 15. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Fraud/Anomaly Detection 16
  • 16. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Fraud Detection: The Problem 17 Transactions • Trx 1 • Trx 2 • Trx 3 • Trx 4 • Trx 5 • Trx 6 • … Model • Good • Good • Good • Fraud • Good • Good • …
  • 17. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Fraud Detection: without Fraud Examples – Auto-encoder 18 • Trained with Back- Propagation on just “normal” transactions • If distance > threshold => possible fraud distance
  • 18. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Fraud Detection: without Fraud Examples
  • 19. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Fraud Detection deployed Suspicious Transaction
  • 20. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. 21 Creative AI
  • 21. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Creative AI: The Problems • Free Text Generation – Simulating a writing style – Writing in different languages – Providing an answer in a specific style – Generating Candidates for Product Names • Image Neuro-Styling – Picasso – Botero – Matisse – Manet – … 22
  • 22. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Deep Learning LSTM Network 23 One-hotencodedcharacter Characterprobabilities e - s- u – o - h o - u- s - e - <space>
  • 23. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Creative AI: The Training Workflow 24
  • 24. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Creative AI: The Deployment Workflow 25
  • 25. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Creative AI: Deployment and Results Yo! This post is about generating free text with a deep learning network particularly it is about Brick X6, Phey, cabe, make you feel soom the way (I smoke good!) I probably make (What?) More money in six months, Than what's in your papa's safe (I'm serious) Look like I robbed a bank (Okay Okay) I set it off like Queen Latifah 'Cause I'm living single I'm feeling cautious I ain't scream when they served a subpoena (Can't go back to jail) I heard that he a leader (Who pood, what to be f*****' up The baugerout Black alro Black X6, Phantom White X6 looks like a panda Goin' out like I'm Montana Hundred killers, hundred hammers Black X6, Phantom White X6, panda Pockets swole, Danny Sellin' bar, candy Man I'm the macho like Randy The choppa go Oscar for Grammy B**** n**** pull up ya panty Hope you killas understand me Hey Panda, Panda Panda, Panda, Panda, Panda, Panda I got broads in Atlanta Twistin' dope, lean, and the Fanta Credit cards and the scammers Hittin' off licks in the bando 26 This License refers to version of the GNU General Public License. Copyright also means copyright-bick, Remade me any thing to his sword To his salt and most hidden loose to be so for sings, but not in a libutt of his matter than that shall be sure as will be soldye As master compary, do not live in traitor. Bless thy five wits! -Kent O pity! Sir, where is the patience now, That this is so far from the sea and some bidings to dismantle So many folds of save and honest. -Brabantio I must not think the Turk of Cassio in the strange metting the cribles of a charmer be the reviling of libe to say That I can deceive him to the best advantage, In her prophetic fairs of a little to presently at your powers; whereof I thank you, sir. -Albany Gloucester, I will prove upancy of his sport and first accuriors and guard and talking on the white. -King Lear Where are the thief? Thou shalt never have the captains at the letter To the Moor and thing we have not the better shall be sure as worth if he be anger— -Regan I pray you, have a countend more than think to do a proclaim’d there of my heart, Hot The words save, honest, thief, master, traitor, and deceive seem to fit the context. Notice also that the dialogue sprouting from the start text of the license agreement interestingly involves mainly minor, less tragic characters from the plays. Caro amico ti scrivo così mi distraggo un po'E siccome sei molto lontano più forte ti scriverò. Da quella prima folla strana, che aveva preso il suo nome, e di correre alla casa di don Abbondio, con un viso bene di non poterci andar la casa del padre Cristoforo, e gli disse che s'avvicinava all'uscio, e si mise a sparse di corsa, e di stare a sé, verso la strada di servizio, chiesto le parole che gli andavan dall'altra stanza, e con la sua condizione de' cappuccini, e di consigli ricerche di confidenza delle gride, nel suo passaggio, se non pensava con una certa ripugnanza a casa sua, che andavano a scomparire in un campo di buone ragioni che avevan potuto raccogliere i suoi pensieri, e di sopra non senza interrogare, che la sua avventura aveva fatto predicare, e con la forza d'un fatto come fuggitive che aveva preso il suo nome, e di correre alla casa di don Abbondio, con un cappuccino di quella sorte, con un certo sospiro, alzando le sue finestre, e le diede un'occhiata in carrozza. Si vendano a metter nelle mani di chi era stato a sedere sur una strada così fatta con le braccia in
  • 26. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Image Neuro-Styling 27
  • 27. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Rosaria Neuro-Styling 28 original Picasso Matisse Caravaggio BoteroRenoir Notre Dame TapestryManet Magritte Van Gogh Artemisia
  • 28. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Image Neuro-Styling: Workflow 29 Python code To Web Browser From Web Browser
  • 29. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. KNIME Fall Summit 2019 November 5 – 8 at AT&T Executive Education and Conference Center, Austin, Texas • Tuesday & Wednesday: One-day courses • Thursday & Friday: Summit sessions Use the Promo Code STRATA-NY-2019 by October 1 for Early Bird Discount! Register at knime.com/fall-summit2019
  • 30. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. Free Book as a Thank You Free Copy of e-book: “Practicing Data Science. A Collection of Case Studies” from KNIME Press https://www.knime.com/knimepress with this code: STRATA-NY-2019 Expiration date: Dec/31/2019 - 23:59 33
  • 31. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. KNIME Hub (https://hub.knime.com) 34
  • 32. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. You can find KNIMers here! 35 • KNIME (www.knime.com) • BLOG for news, tips and tricks(www.knime.com/blog) • FORUM for questions and answers (tech.knime.com/forum) • EXAMPLES SERVER for example workflows • E-LEARNING COURSE (https://www.knime.com/knime-introductory-course ) • KNIME TV channel on • KNIME on @KNIME • KNIME on https://www.facebook.com/KNIMEanalytics • s
  • 33. © 2018 KNIME AG. All Rights Reserved. 36 The KNIME® trademark and logo and OPEN FOR INNOVATION® trademark are used by KNIME AG under license from KNIME GmbH, and are registered in the United States. KNIME® is also registered in Germany.