Operational Attribution with Google Analytics

OPERATIONAL ATTRIBUTION
a framework and a methodology to make
actionable attribution in GA
Jonathan Breton, Google
GAUC WARSAW Sept 25th

Source: eMarketer October 2013 $

DEFINITION OF ATTRIBUTION IS EVOLVING
AS WE SPEAK
“Conversion attribution is
the practice advertisers
use to give appropriate
credit to every impression,
interaction or click that
helped drive a conversion
in a campaign”
%
%
%
%
%

DEFINITION OF ATTRIBUTION IS EVOLVING
+ impact of offline marketing
“Conversion attribution is
the practice advertisers
use to give appropriate
credit to every impression,
interaction or click that
helped drive a conversion
in a campaign”
efforts
+predictive modeling
+ cross-device tracking
+ offline value of a
conversion
+ audience
management
AS WE SPEAK
+ distinction New vs Loyal cust.
+actionability

How is Attribution doing today?
How can we use it to change the way we
think about media?
How can I find insights in Google Analytics and
start experimenting?
What’s next after online attribution?

ADVERTISERS TRACK DATA THAT
THEY DON’T USE
last-click
attribution
considers only 15%
of the data you
have collected
source: Average of Google Analytics premium experiments in SEEMEA
?

MOST AGREE THAT
ATTRIBUTION
ENABLES BETTER
BUDGET DECISIONS
72%
MOST USE THE LAST-CLICK
MODEL TO
MAKE THEIR BUDGET
DECISIONS
79%

THE LAST CLICK MODEL IS A DECADE
OLD CONSENSUS
last convert
? ? ? ?
? ? ? ? click

MOST MARKETERS STILL OPERATE IN
A SILOED WORLD
SEO PAID
SEARCH
DISPLAY SOCIAL
EMAIL
MEDIA

MARKETERS NEED GUIDANCE AND
METHOD
“Need to better
understand the
potential”
42%
“Lack of priority
within marketing”
51%
source: Marketing Attribution Management 2013 Buyer's Guide
“Unsure how to
choose a
method/model”
42%

TODAY’s DUTY :
To give you simplified
framework and a methodology
to crack the attribution
discussion
in no time

See - Think - Do
a simplified framework

Avinash Kaushik
Google Analytics Evangelist &
Market Motive Co-Founder

ALL AUDIENCES ARE NOT EQUAL
AT A GIVEN TIME, THEY ARE IN DIFFERENT CONSIDERATION STAGES
Men who
wear shoes
Men who are thinking they
need new shoes for the fall
Men who are looking
to buy fall shoes now
A D VO C A C Y & L O Y A L T Y
SEE THINK DO
A W A R E N E S S C O N S I D E R A T I O N P U R C H A S E
E V A L U A T I O N

STANDARD ASSUMPTIONS OF MEDIA
CERTAIN MEDIA REACHES CERTAIN AUDIENCES
S E O S E O
D I S P L A Y
A F F I L I A T E S
S E M
SEE THINK DO

BREAKING DOWN ASSUMPTIONS
RE-ALIGN MARKETING FOCUS WITH CONSIDERATION PHASE
S O C I A L S O C IA L
S E O S E O S E O
A F F I L I A T E S
D I S P L A Y D I S P L A Y D I S P L A Y
Y O U T U B E Y O U T U B E Y T
S E M S E M S E M
E M A I L E M A I L
SEE THINK DO

PAID MEDIA PLAYS MANY ROLES
WIDE SCOPE OF TARGETING & OBJECTIVES
DEMO / PSYCHO / SOCIAL
IN MARKET / SIMILAR AUDIENCES / TOPICS
INTERESTS / AFFINITY / REMARKETING
REMARKETING / CONTEXTUAL
PRODUCT-DRIVEN / OFFERS
YOUTUBE MASTHEAD / FIRST WATCH
DEMO/PSYCHO/SOCIAL/INTEREST CATEGORY
IN MARKET / SIMILAR AUDIENCES / TOPICS
INTERESTS / AFFINITY / REMARKETING
PRODUCT
VIDEO
BRAND / PRODUCT
LOWER FUNNEL
INDUSTRY
GENERIC
YOUTUBE SEARCH / CATEGORY GENERIC /
MID FUNNEL
SEE THINK DO

WHY DO WE STILL USE LAST CLICK?
CAMPAIGNS MAY NOT GENERATE (ANY) CONVERSIONS RIGHT AWAY
Conversions
STANDARD CAMPAIGN METRICS OF SUCCESS
Conversions
DEMO/PSYCHO/SOCIAL I N M A R K E T / S I M I L A R A U D I E N C E S
Conversions
R E M A R K E T I N G / C O N T E X T U A L
P R O D U C T - C E N T R I C / O F F E R S
CPA
ROI
CPA
ROI
Y O U T U B E M A S T H E A D /
? ? P R O D U C T
D E M O /P S Y C H O / S O C I A L V I D E O
CPA
ROI
B R A N D / P R O D U C T /
L O W E R F U N N E L T E R M S
G E N E R A L
B R O A D
Y O U T U B E S E A R C H / C A T E G O R Y /
M I D F U N N E L / P R O B L E M S O L U T I O N
SEE THINK DO

LET’S MEASURE BETTER
METRICS SHOULD ALIGN WITH MARKETING OBJECTIVES
REVISED CAMPAIGN METRICS OF SUCCESS (EXAMPLE)
● CTR
● Page Depth
● Store Locator views
● Micro-conversions
● Assist Conversions &
● Impressions/Reach
● % of New Visits
● Bounce rate
● Assist Conversions &
DEMO/PSYCHO/SOCIAL I N M A R K E T / S I M I L A R A U D I E N C E S
● Visitor Loyalty
● Abandonment Rate
● Conversions/CPA
● Revenue/ROAS
● Profit
R E M A R K E T I N G / C O N T E X T U A L
P R O D U C T - C E N T R I C / O F F E R S
Ratios (over long-term)
Y O U T U B E M A S T H E A D /
? ? P R O D U C T
D E M O /P S Y C H O / S O C I A L V I D E O
B R A N D / P R O D U C T /
L O W E R F U N N E L T E R M S
G E N E R A L
B R O A D
Ratios (over mid-term)
Y O U T U B E S E A R C H / C A T E G O R Y /
M I D F U N N E L / P R O B L E M S O L U T I O N
SEE THINK DO

WHAT MARKETERS
CAN ACCOMPLISH
TODAY
WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS

DIFFERENT VIEWPOINTS
ONLINE-TO-OFFLINE
CROSS-DEVICE
INTRA-CHANNEL
Conversion
Generic
Search
Brand
Search
INCREMENTAL CUSTOMER INSIGHTS
MULTI-CHANNEL
Display Conversion
Mobile
Search
Conversion
Desktop
Search
Desktop
Search
Store
Visit
Conversion
Search

DIFFERENT VIEWPOINTS
INCREMENTAL CUSTOMER INSIGHTS
INTRA-CHANNEL
MULTI-CHANNEL
Display Search Conversion
ONLINE-TO-OFFLINE
Desktop
Search
Store
Visit
Conversion
CROSS-DEVICE
Mobile
Search
Conversion
Desktop
Search
Generic
Search
Brand
Search
Conversion

A STEP BY STEP PROCESS
1 - measure the potential of attribution
2 - design a See-Think-Do channel grouping
3 - adapt your KPIs
4 - apply relevant models

MEASURE WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS
MULTI-CHANNEL FUNNELS REPORTING
Overview Assisted Conversions Top Conversion Paths
Time Lag Path Length

1 - measure the potential impact of attribution on your mix-media
Look at the size of
your “assisted”
online business

WHAT IS AN ASSIST INTERACTION?
Generic Search
Click
Referral
Brand Search
Click
Display Impression
Assist
interactions
Remarketing Click
Last interaction
Purchase
Product
Search
Click

70% of conversions
are assisted

80% of conversion
paths contain at
least 2 different
channels

79% of your
revenue are
impacted by
Attribution-driven
decisions

1 - measure the potential impact attribution on your mix-media
tools used:
1 - USER SEGMENT
“ASSISTED CONVERSION USERS”
2- ATTRIBUTION OVERVIEW
15%*
ROI increase on assisted conversion
=
12%
overall business improvement !
*: realistic estimate of ROI improvement based on existing case studies

2 - Assign your channels and campaigns to See-Think-Do roles
Redefined channels
Sample data for demonstration purposes only

Assist
Ratios
÷ = Last-Click
Conversions
Assist Metrics
Assist
Conversions

Display & Video:
Lower Funnel
15.0 5.0 0.5 0.3
SEE
Organic
Search
Direct
3.1 0.8 0.6
Assist
Ratios
SEE THINK
DO
Assist
Conversions
9.0
Email
Display & Video:
Upper Funnel
Display & Video:
Mid-Funnel Paid Search:
Generic
0.7
Referral
Sample data for demonstration purposes only (may differ from previous/following screenshots)
USE THE ASSISTED
CONVERSION REPORT
AND WORK ON YOUR
CHANNEL GROUPING
Brand Paid
Search

3 - adapt your KPIs

3 - Adapt your KPIs to SEE-THINK-DO performance
Generic
Search Click
Assist
interactions
Referral
Remarketing
Brand
Search
Click
Click
Newsletter Signup
Display
Impression
Microconversion
Last interaction
% new users
SEE THINK DO
Purchase
Macroconversion
Microconversion

3 - Give monetary values to your engagement goals
source: Dave McClure’s example conversion metrics

SEE, THINK and DO
3 - Adapt your KPIs to SEE-THINK-DO performance
Acquisition
▼ Cost Analysis
▼ AdWords
▼ Display Targeting
Choose
Microconversion
Acquisition
▼AdWords
▼ Display Reporting
Fall Collection (Int./Affinity)
Fashion & Style - Chanel
Fashion & Style - Michael Kors
Fashion & Style - Steve Madden
Fashion & Style - Dior
Fashion & Style - Adidas
Fashion & Style - Nike
Fashion & Style - Reebok
Goal 2: Store Locator
Microconversions
ANIMATION
SET
MICRO-CONVERSIONS

USE MODEL
COMPARISON TOOL on
4 - apply relevant models to new KPIs/Channels
Conservative growth
strategy
your new KPIs and
new CHANNELS
(period = 10x avg
path length)
Aggressive growth
strategy
Finishing more existing
conversion paths
Starting more new
conversion paths
Converting more
existing customers
Converting more new
customers
Driving brand
capitalization
Driving brand
awareness
EXPERIMENT WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT AWAY FROM LAST CLICK

MOVE TOWARDS CUSTOM MODELS
FOR MORE SOPHISTICATED ALLOCATION
ANIMATION

“THINK” CAMPAIGN SCORECARD
COMBINING TRADITIONAL AND NEW METRICS
Traditional Metrics Assist Conversions & Ratios
Interest/Affinity
Campaign
6.5
“Think” Average
3.2
$5K Investment
55k Clicks (5% CTR, 1.1M impressions)
19 Conversions (0.01% CVR, $500 CPA, 0.3 ROI)
Page Depth & Microconversions
0.8 Store Locator views/session (+90% vs. site avg.)
150 Accounts created (10% CVR)
15 Potential future customers*
*10% Avg. Conversion rate from microconversions to macroconversions
over 6 month time period
Assist Conversions
Assist Ratio
● Assisted 5% of all transactions (125)
● Assisted 5% of all revenue ($11,125)
● 54 conversions with Think Custom model
● 2x higher likelihood of assisting (vs. ‘Think’ average)
● +40% higher avg. order value when assist
Sample data for demonstration purposes only (vs. overall AOV)

DATA-DRIVEN MODELS
ALGORITHM-POWERED MODELS IN GA PREMIUM
2%
Search Email Likelihood of
Purchase
Display
3%
Search Email
Likelihood of
Purchase
Increased likelihood of
purchase by 50%
Premium

25%
growth in
ROI
x2 non-brand paid
search performance
x3 display
performance
+44% website
sales

Want smarter attribution?
Give it more data !
Demo of UA’s userID and Measurement protocol features

DOUBLECLICK INTEGRATIONS Premium
import Impression data in your attribution reporting
Count the DCM
impressions in your
attribution reporting
Create remarketing
lists in GAp and push
them instantly in DBM

CROSS-DEVICE MEASUREMENT
AD
AD
AD
SITE
APP
SITE
SITE
APP
User 1
User 2
User 3
USING THE USER-ID FEATURE
DEMO

CROSS-DEVICE MEASUREMENT
Creates profile based on
User-ID instead of Client-ID
USING THE USER-ID FEATURE

OFFLINE CONVERSION MEASUREMENT
DEMO
USING THE MEASUREMENT PROTOCOL
SITE
AD
AD
AD
Online leads are
qualified on the phone
Sales close after in-person
meetings
Revenue generation
happens in store
attribute ?

RETHINK YOUR MEDIA
RETHINK YOUR METRICS
RETHINK YOUR MODEL
RETHINK DATA SCOPE
JUST DO IT !
SO, WHAT TO REMEMBER NOW?

USEFUL LINKS
Framework and methodology related content
Avinash Kaushik blog:
http://www.kaushik.net/avinash/
Avinash Kaushik blog - framework post:
http://www.kaushik.net/avinash/see-think-do-content-marketing-measurement-business-
framework/
Dave McClure’s “start-up metrics for Pirates”:
http://www.slideshare.net/dmc500hats/startup-metrics-for-pirates-long-version

Code to extract GA’s CID of a user for later use in Measurement Protocol
<?php
function gaParseCookie() {
if (isset($_COOKIE['_ga'])) {
list($version,$domainDepth, $cid1, $cid2) = split('[.]', $_COOKIE
["_ga"],4);
$contents = array('version' => $version, 'domainDepth' =>
$domainDepth, 'cid' => $cid1.'.'.$cid2);
$cid = $contents['cid'];
}
else $cid = gaGenUUID();
return $cid;
}
?>
NON-GOOGLE CODE
use at risk
your own

Example of Measurement Protocol HIT ( more info) =
http://www.google-analytics.com/collect?v=1
&tid=UA-XXXXX-6
&t=pageview
&dl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.yourwebsite.php
&cs=WARSAW%20GAUC --- optional
&cm=Jonathan --- optional
&dt=testMP
&cid=<?php echo gaParseCookie() ?>
&uid=CRM_ID --- optional

LINKS TO CASE STUDIES
Attribution success stories
On the Beach:
http://www.google.com/analytics/customers/pdfs/on-the-beach.pdf
Sellpoints:
http://www.google.com/analytics/customers/pdfs/sellpoints.pdf
Amari:
http://www.google.com/analytics/customers/pdfs/amari.pdf
More case studies available at
http://www.google.com/analytics/customers/

Operational Attribution with Google Analytics

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