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The 2016 CES Report: The Trend Behind the Trend
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39 © 2015 Ipsos. Tecnè The Death of Polling?

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39 © 2015 Ipsos.
Tecnè Demos Ipsos
diff vs. actual results
RIVOLUZIONE CIVILE 0,9% 0,9% 1,0%
SEL 0,0% 0,4% 0,4%
PD 4,9% 3,7% 4,9%
ALTRI CENTRO SINISTRA -0,4% -0,5% -0,4%
TOTALE CENTROSINISTRA 4,5% 3,6% 4,9%
CON MONTI PER L'ITALIA -0,9% 2,0% 0,4%
UDC 0,8% 1,0% 0,7%
FLI 0,0% 0,2% 0,2%
TOTALE CENTRO -0,1% 3,2% 1,3%
LEGA NORD 1,0% 1,2% -0,1%
PDL -0,3% -1,5% -1,4%
ALTRI CENTRO DESTRA -0,7% -0,7% 0,6%
TOTALE CENTRODESTRA 0,0% -1,0% -0,9%
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE
BEPPEGRILLO.IT -5,8% -6,6% -5,6%
POLLSTERS WERE INACCURATE
THE POLLSTERS UNDER ACCUSATION
WHAT WENT WRONG WHY IT WENT WRONG
For all the major agencies in Italy
• overestimated the Democratic Party’s
• underestimated the M5S result
• No past voters behaviour on M5S, which is a key
component of the weighting process
• The difficulties of intercepting the potential M5S
voters
• reticence in centre-left supporters to declare their
intention
• last minute swing (25% estimated to have decided 2
days before)
• A high refusal rate, affecting differently the
various groups of respondents (10 contacts to
get a valid interview)
• Respondents lie
7

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39 © 2015 Ipsos. Tecnè Demos Ipsos diff vs. actual results RIVOLUZIONE CIVILE 0,9% 0,9% 1,0% SEL 0,0% 0,4% 0,4% PD 4,9% 3,7% 4,9% ALTRI CENTRO SINISTRA -0,4% -0,5% -0,4% TOTALE CENTROSINISTRA 4,5% 3,6% 4,9% CON MONTI PER L'ITALIA -0,9% 2,0% 0,4% UDC 0,8% 1,0% 0,7% FLI 0,0% 0,2% 0,2% TOTALE CENTRO -0,1% 3,2% 1,3% LEGA NORD 1,0% 1,2% -0,1% PDL -0,3% -1,5% -1,4% ALTRI CENTRO DESTRA -0,7% -0,7% 0,6% TOTALE CENTRODESTRA 0,0% -1,0% -0,9% MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE BEPPEGRILLO.IT -5,8% -6,6% -5,6% POLLSTERS WERE INACCURATE THE POLLSTERS UNDER ACCUSATION WHAT WENT WRONG WHY IT WENT WRONG For all the major agencies in Italy • overestimated the Democratic Party’s • underestimated the M5S result • No past voters behaviour on M5S, which is a key component of the weighting process • The difficulties of intercepting the potential M5S voters • reticence in centre-left supporters to declare their intention • last minute swing (25% estimated to have decided 2 days before) • A high refusal rate, affecting differently the various groups of respondents (10 contacts to get a valid interview) • Respondents lie 7

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