In his presentation about housing and public opinion at the Chartered Institute of Housing London conference, Ben Marshall outlined 10 key trends and themes.

1. Housing, #GE2015 & beyond
10 key themes
@BenM_IM
28.4.15 #CIHLonConf

2. 1. Housing is a more
prominent issue

3. Manifest in this… 3

4. And this… 4
Source: Social Market Foundation

5. 2. This is not surprising

6. 0
5
10
15
20
Jan
2014
Feb
2014
Mar
2014
Apr
2014
May
2014
Jun
2014
Jul
2014
Aug
2014
Sep
2014
Oct
2014
Nov
2014
Dec
2014
Jan
2015
Feb
2015
Mar
2015
Apr
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2015
2014-15 2009-10 2004-5
14
9
5
Salience has been building….
Q1/Q2 What is the most important/other important issues facing Britain?
[UNPROMPTED]
% mentioning housing
Base: c1,000 GB adults per monthSource: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
GE
(where no measure (x4 2009-10), previous month % continued)
6

7. Reflects ‘generation strains’… 7

8. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
All 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
% buy % rent
39And aspiration: the (second) British religion
Source: Ipsos MORI/#HousingDayBase: All GB adults (1,997), 24 Oct-2 Nov 2014
8
Q. If you had a free choice, would you choose to rent your housing or would you
choose to buy?

9. 0
1
2
3
4
5
Not only unsurprising, but well timed 9
Base: c800 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Leaders
Parties
Policies
Q. If you had a total of ten points according to how important each of these was to
you, how many would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend to voting
for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole?

10. 3. But it is still ‘second
order’…

11. …behind the big hitters
Pensions/
benefits
Europe
Foreign
affairs/defence
Unemployment
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 10 20 30 40 50
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults 18+
What will decide your vote?
Health
Economy
Asylum &
immigration
Education
Q. What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Q. Looking ahead to the next general election, which, if any issues do you think will be very
important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?
Most important issues
Crime
Taxation
For vote decision – average of Foreign affairs and defence, pensions and benefits
Poverty/inequality
Housing
11

12. Four key drivers to an issue being ‘sticky’
Engagement✓
Source: Sir Robert Worcester and Prof. Roger Mortimore (Ipsos MORI)
Explaining Labour’s Landslide
Differentiation✓
Ability
Will
1312
✓
✓
?
?

13. 4. Likely because weaker
sense of government
agency

14. Will voting help solve the housing crisis? 14

15. “WE did not build enough homes” (Ed Miliband, 16.4.15) 15

16. 5. Crisis felt much
less locally (& differently)

17. Q1/Q2 What is the most important/other important issues facing Britain?
[UNPROMPTED]
74% national, 46% local 17
48%
40%
Women
Men
54%
45-54
37% 38%
18-24
39%
‘AB’
51%
‘DE’
65%
Social
renter56%
Private
renter
39%
Mortgage
76%
London
55%
South
39%
North
39%
Scotland
Base: 1,010 GB adults 18+, 11-13 Jan 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/CIH
% agree “There is a
housing crisis in
my local area
65+

18. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan
2014
Feb
2014
Mar
2014
Apr
2014
May
2014
Jun
2014
Jul
2014
Aug
2014
Sep
2014
Oct
2014
Nov
2014
Dec
2014
Jan
2015
Feb
2015
Mar
2015
Apr
2015
May
2015
2014-15 2009-10
38
10
Q1/Q2 What is the most important/other important issues facing Britain?
[UNPROMPTED]
% mentioning housing
Base: c1,000 GB adults per month, c100+ in LondonSource: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
GE
(where no measure (x4 2009-10), previous month % continued)
A top three issue (and top issue for London 2013-) 18

19. There are different political (& geographic?) perspectives
Base: 1,010 GB adults (telephone) 18+, 11-13 Jan 2015
103 MPs (face-to-face), 4 Nov-19 Dec 2014
‘Voters’ = say ‘certain’ will vote for party at general election
(291 Con, 256 Lab, 68 Lib Dem)
MPs; 45 Con, 45 Lab, 11 Lib Dem
15%
Con
MPs
76%
Lab
MPs
Lib Dem
MPs
34%
Con
voters
51% 52%
Lib Dem
voters
Source: Ipsos MORI/CIH
% agree “There is a housing crisis in my local area
(public)/“…in my constituency” (MPs)
83%
19

20. 6. Prices have been the
iconic issue

21. Prices front of mind
Q. Which, if any, of the following do you see as the 2 or 3 most important problems
facing the housing market in Britain today?
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online, 10-13 October 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
Size of
deposits
31%
Lack of
social housing
30%
House
prices are
too high
47%
Not enough new
homes being built
20%
Rents
too high
28%
Too many people from
abroad buying homes
21%
Housing benefit
changes
14%
Banks not giving
out mortgages
15%
Stamp duty is too high
14%
Big homes
occupied
by 1 or 2 people
5%
Too many
second homes
13%
Not enough schemes for
renters to get on ladder
12%
21

22. Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75 (online), 10-13 October 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
Base: 103 MPs (face-to-face), 4 Nov – 19 Dec 2014
Reducing
the no. of
empty
homes
Making it easier for
FTBs to own/part-
own their homes
28%
Improving
run down
estates
27%
Reducing the no.
of empty homes
32%
Tackling
homelessness &
rough sleeping
22%
Tackling
bad
landlords
15% Making
homes more
energy
efficient
12%
Building more
homes which are
affordable
35% Building more
homes which
are affordable
68%
Reducing the no.
of empty homes
26%
Improving run
down estates
22%
Making homes
more energy
efficient
16%Tackling
homeless-
ness & rough
sleeping
5%
Making it easier
for FTBs to
own/part-own
their homes
39%
Tackling
bad
landlords
17%
Q. This list shows a selection of issues associated with housing in
Britain. Which one or two, if any, do you think should be the highest
priority for the government to deal with?…
Public MPs
Source: Ipsos MORI/ CIH

23. 7. But supply is becoming
the silver bullet

24. The worm turned… 24

25. “Yes, but…” 25

26. 8. Remarkable shift in
opinion on supply

27. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2013 2014
% support % oppose % neither
Source: British Social Attitudes Survey
Britain for Homes? Much more so…
24
Q. Would you support or oppose more homes being built in your local area?
27

28. 39
40
25
60
…it meant
building on
greenfield
…it helped to
bring more and
better facilities to
this area
…more were
built per year
than have been
built per year in
the past
58
27
% Support
% Oppose
But opposition (‘nimbyism’) hasn’t been defeated
Base: 1,002 residents 16+ Source: Ipsos MORI
28
Q. Again thinking about…and, in principle, to what extent would you support or
oppose new homes being built in the future if…
54
32
In principle

29. 9. These trends could
strengthen as ‘political power’
of private renters increases

30. ‘Voting power’
x2.5owner-occupiers vs renters
Size & turnout are key elements to this
Source: Ipsos MORI election poll aggregates (GB) 2010, ONS Census
30

31. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Owners Mortgage Private renters Social renters
Con Lab LibDem UKIP
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor aggregate 2014 (vote share based on those ‘certain to vote’)
PRS & mortgage had been ‘bellweather’ tenures…
% vote share 2014 aggregate
24
31

32. 10. Broad ‘retail offer’ from
housing needed

33. Mixed tenure provision 33
Q. If new homes were to be built in your local area, which if any of these types of
homes do you think are most needed?
36% 34%
23%
6%
15%
12%
Homes to rent
from local
authorities or
housing
associations
Homes to buy Homes to part-
own and part-
rent
Homes to rent
from private
landlord
No new homes
needed
Don't know
Base: 2,000 GB adults,16-75 (online), 30 May-4 June 2014 Source: Ipsos MOR/CIH

34. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
% social % private
24
39
%
Social housing: safety net & springboard 34
Q. As you may know there are two main ways that a household can rent their home,
private-rented, when it is being rented from a private landlord, and social rented
from a local council or housing association. Which of the two ways of renting do
you think would best provide… And, overall, which would you say is the best form
of renting?
Source: Ipsos MORI/#HousingDayBase: All GB adults (1,997), 24 Oct-2 Nov 2014

35. 1%
21%
24%
53%
The ‘fifth tenure’ remains a blindspot
I am interested in buying or renting
an intermediate market home and
have already applied
I don’t know enough
about intermediate
housing to know if I am
interested or not
Q. Which of the following, if any, best describes your attitude towards intermediate
market housing?
I am interested in buying
or renting an intermediate
market home but have
NOT applied
I am NOT interested in
buying or renting an
intermediate market home
Base: All potential consumers (3,365), 2010
Source: Ipsos MORI/HCA
3535

36. Finally… don’t forget
the audience
(& the lived reality)

37. Understand your audience…(perils of perception)
9
16
18
20
21
16
3/4 or more
Between 1/2 and 3/4
Around half
Between 1/4 and 1/2
Less than 1/4
Don't know
Base: 1,699 adults aged 16+, April-May 2012
Actual = 10%: http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk
Source: Ipsos MORI/British Property Federation
37
Q. ‘Developed land’ is defined as…
What proportion of land in England do you think is developed?

38. Applies to these too… 38

39. A warning (in a silver cloud)
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base: 837 adults aged 16+ across England
13 March-1 April 2015
Q. To what extent do you support or oppose Government borrowing money to fund the building
of more affordable housing for people to buy or rent in England?
Base: 790 adults aged 16+ across England
13 March-1 April 2015
It is estimated by Cambridge University that England
needs to build around 240,000 new homes a year to
keep pace with demand. This number of homes has
not been built in any single year since the 1970s.
During this time, private house builders have never
built more than 175,000 homes a year.
% support Question asked with preamble
54
26 20
47
27 25
% neither support/oppose
% oppose
39

40. @BenM_IM
Movement not moment
Supply, agency, strategy
Good luck!