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(Towards) A Brief History of UK Foresight Ian Miles PREST/IoIR University of Manchester
This talk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where is UK Foresight? http://www.foresight.gov.uk
A site with Rich Content – on specific technology areas
But this is “focused” Foresight marks a major change ,[object Object],[object Object]
The Official History ,[object Object],[object Object]
UK Foresight Programme – prehistory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
UK Foresight Programme – “First Cycle” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Organisational Flow Ben Martin on Steering Committee: undertook review of other Programmes; PREST undertook much methodological work (delphi, other surveys, panel training…) This links to innovation studies Prime Minister Cabinet Office Office of Science and Technology Foresight 1
Initial stages of First Cycle Pre-foresight Steering committee Co-nomination 15 panels prepared ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Original Foresight Panels  (94-98) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Mix of technology and “demand” Missing sectors?  Analysis of Cross-sectoral links (e.g. food chain) ,[object Object]
Structure placed  Panels at the core ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
One Priority: Priorities! Key priority areas Inter-mediate areas Emerging areas Feasibility  Attractiveness
Foresight implementation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Retrospect on First Cycle ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Transformed Website The Second Cycle      TF          CP CP    sectoral   thematic,  Many   Tas k Forces
Second Cycle Structure Source : OST,   Blueprint for the Next Round of   Foresight,  SECTORAL PANELS THEMATIC PANELS KNOWLEDGE  POOL ASSOCIATE  PROGRAMMES
The Knowledge Pool Information Discussion Groups USERS and CONTRIBUTORS Panels, Government Departments Associate Programmes, Other Participants Search for ideas Find others with and analysis, etc.   shared goals Add strategies,  Put your ideas visions, trends, etc.   to the test
Other key elements ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Retrospect on Second Cycle ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Second Cycle Problems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2001 Organisational Flow Research Councils Innov- ation Group DTI Futures Unit Director General of Research Councils Cabinet Office Strategic Futures Performance & Innovation  Unit Prime Minister Office of Science and Technology Foresight 2 Department of Trade and Industry Chief Scientific Advisor
Third Cycle ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Third Cycle Foresight ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Technology Strategy to increase innovation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Technology Strategy/ Technology Foresight ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Broader Foresight ,[object Object],[object Object]
Strategy Unit http://www.strategy.gov.uk/output/page696.asp
Stimulus for Strategy
Centrifugal Forces ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Horizon-Scanning and Roadmapping ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
DEFRA – Horizon scanning
Horizon-Scanning for Emergencies
Other parts of government are also  active   –  e.g. a call for research : http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_science/documents/page/dft_science_025626.hcsp
A Space Roadmap Foremost developer of Leading-Edge Solutions Leading Users of Space Services Using Space for World Class Science 1995   2000   2005   2010  2015 http://www.bnsc.gov.uk/index.cfm?fast=spacestrategy
Many government-funded projects outside of government agencies Research Councils involved in various ways
[object Object],Landscape Futures Visualised Foresight and related work is underway at many sites, with CLIMATE CHANGE one of the main foci
And, finally, much regional work…
Critical Technologies At:  http://www.dti.gov.uk/innovationreport/
OST's Centre of Excellence in Horizon Scanning: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
End of Presentation

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UK Foresight - a view from 2005

  • 1. (Towards) A Brief History of UK Foresight Ian Miles PREST/IoIR University of Manchester
  • 2.
  • 3. Where is UK Foresight? http://www.foresight.gov.uk
  • 4. A site with Rich Content – on specific technology areas
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.  
  • 10. Organisational Flow Ben Martin on Steering Committee: undertook review of other Programmes; PREST undertook much methodological work (delphi, other surveys, panel training…) This links to innovation studies Prime Minister Cabinet Office Office of Science and Technology Foresight 1
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. One Priority: Priorities! Key priority areas Inter-mediate areas Emerging areas Feasibility Attractiveness
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. A Transformed Website The Second Cycle      TF          CP CP  sectoral  thematic, Many Tas k Forces
  • 18. Second Cycle Structure Source : OST, Blueprint for the Next Round of Foresight, SECTORAL PANELS THEMATIC PANELS KNOWLEDGE POOL ASSOCIATE PROGRAMMES
  • 19. The Knowledge Pool Information Discussion Groups USERS and CONTRIBUTORS Panels, Government Departments Associate Programmes, Other Participants Search for ideas Find others with and analysis, etc. shared goals Add strategies, Put your ideas visions, trends, etc. to the test
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. 2001 Organisational Flow Research Councils Innov- ation Group DTI Futures Unit Director General of Research Councils Cabinet Office Strategic Futures Performance & Innovation Unit Prime Minister Office of Science and Technology Foresight 2 Department of Trade and Industry Chief Scientific Advisor
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. DEFRA – Horizon scanning
  • 35. Other parts of government are also active – e.g. a call for research : http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_science/documents/page/dft_science_025626.hcsp
  • 36. A Space Roadmap Foremost developer of Leading-Edge Solutions Leading Users of Space Services Using Space for World Class Science 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 http://www.bnsc.gov.uk/index.cfm?fast=spacestrategy
  • 37. Many government-funded projects outside of government agencies Research Councils involved in various ways
  • 38.
  • 39. And, finally, much regional work…
  • 40. Critical Technologies At: http://www.dti.gov.uk/innovationreport/
  • 41.
  • 42.