1. What drives likelihood to report radicalization… &..
How do you spot a potentially good early informant?
Howard Moskowitz, Ph.D., UCOMSP & Mind Genomics Advisors, LLC
Alicia Dugan, UCOMSP
Martin Braun, Ph.D. Queens College
Tawfik Hamid, MD
Mohammad Tahir Vali, Queens College
Charbel Bourjas, Northwestern University

2. By way of introduction
• How do we get into a person’s mind in order to understand what might
drive that person?
• We start by the ‘wisdom of crowds’
• Present people with vignettes about an individual, and ask whether they
feel that individual in the vignette is likely to radicalize
• Even though one individual may not know the answer correctly, 100 people
looking at these aspects or vignettes may end up providing a good sense of
the key aspects perceived as co-varying with likelihood to radicalize
• Compare patterns of response to vignettes from 108 Muslim and 119 non-
Muslim respondents …. Are they responding to the same cues. (Hint ….no)

3. What you will see in this presentation
• We explore what Islam-related attributes of a person are perceived to
co-vary with likelihood to radicalize
• The basis of the study emerges from the book of Dr. Tawfik Hamid on
Jihadism: Inside Jihad: How Radical Islam Works, Why It Should
Terrify Us, How to Defeat It
• The science to uncover the perceptions is Mind Genomics, used by
academics, businesses, scientists, doctors and lawyers in order to
understand and optimize decision-making
• Our study reveals what attributes seem to co-vary with a third
person’s perceptions of an individual’s likelihood to radicalize, and the
attributed emotions behind these attributes

4. Executive summary
• Your world tomorrow morning
• A world where jihadi incidents are a daily occurrence
• You receive a report that there is an incident going on
• Question – Should you be slightly worried, worried, or very worried?
• Point of view – of course you should make every effort … but what happens when you
don’t understand the criteria of your sources? You could miss serious stuff, or go
bankrupt on ‘false alarms’
• Our findings
• There are four clusters of people
• Group A comprises people who are very suspicious of everything, but not likely to report
anything…very little suffices to add measurably to their already exceptionally-high basic suspicions.
• Group B comprises slightly less suspicious, more likely to report
• Group C comprises less suspicious, much more likely to report
• Group D comprises far less suspicious, but reports the smallest thing
• From which group is your informant..and.. what is the likely seriousness of the report?

5. How science answers the question

6. What we did … the ‘materials for the experiment’
• Created descriptions of a hypothetical person, and asked respondents to tell us whether the
person would likely radicalize, and what the person would be feeling
• Descriptions are simple phrases: Identified six silos, each with six elements
• Silos and elements – categories and individual elements … based on book by Dr. Tawfik Hamid …. Inside
Jihad: How Radical Islam Works, Why It Should Terrify Us, How to Defeat It
• Combined elements into vignettes … each vignette comprises 3- 4 elements from different silos
• Each person evaluated a unique set of 48 vignettes, with each element appearing 5x in the
48 vignettes.
• Impossible to ‘game the system’ or to answer in ‘politically correctly’ manner
• The underlying design generates a wide variety of element combinations, so we have a large
sampling of alternative descriptions of people
• Each vignette rated on two attributes … radicalization probability, and attributed ‘positive
emotion’ to the person described by the vignette

7. Some additional things to re-emphasize
• The experimental design we used inserts each element into five
different vignettes
• All 36 elements are statistically independent of each other
• Each respondent’s data generated an individual-level model
• The coefficients of that model have ratio properties, and can be
compared across people, groups, studies
• The system cannot be gamed, and the respondent cannot be
‘politically correct.’ No one can remember the rating assigned to the
previous vignette, much less remember the contents of the vignette

8. Silos A,B,C and their elements
Silo A: Point of view regarding women
A1 It's irrelevant what women wear
A2 Women may wear open sleeves and above the knee shorts ... nothing beyond that
A3 Women should wear a hijab ...& clothing which fully covers them
A4 Women should wear a hijab ...never jeans or revealing clothing outside their home
A5 Women must wear a hijab at all times.. no make-up.. stay away from westerners ... beaten if they disagree
A6 “Women who don't wear a hijab or burqa ... or wear revealing clothing... nothing more than sex slaves”
Silo B: Upbringing and attitudes regarding interpersonal violence
B1 Accepts ...people bully others
B2 Accepts….. people doing violent acts towards others
B3 Worries about anti-islamic policies
B4 Victim of persistent aggression
B5 Victim of persistent bullying
B6 Victim of violent acts
Silo C: Nature of friends
C1 No friends
C2 Has friends in both the gay community.. and from many religious backgrounds
C3 Friends with people from many religious backgrounds
C4 Strong preference for Muslim friends
C5 Muslim friends are conservative
C6 Opposes ... and friends oppose ... liberal Muslims, gay people and members of other religions

9. Silos D, E, F and their elements
Silo D: Observance of Islamic law
D1 Doesn’t care very much about written Islamic laws
D2 Does best not to eat pork or drink alcohol
D3 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam
D4 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam ..& most of the non-violent Islamic laws governing human interaction
D5 Islamic law has higher precedence ... should replace the legal system in use today
D6 Those who do not follow all of the Islamic laws.. are non-believers ...punished in the "afterlife"
Silo E: Basic principles and response to infractions of Islamic law
E1 To die as a martyr .. greatest way to serve serving Allah
E2 There is one God (Allah) … Muhammad is his messenger
E3 Polygamy is permitted … Muhammad had multiple wives
E4 Strictly against gambling... intoxicants .... polytheism
E5 Homosexuals and adulterous women ... should be stoned
E6 Apostates .. threats to Islam and caliphate ...must be slain
Silo F: Social and religious practices regarding Islam
F1 Keeps distance from religious people
F2 Does not practice Islam … but.. accepts its culture
F3 Prays when convenient ... visits Mosque only on important days of the Islamic year
F4 Makes 5 daily prayers, visits Mosque for Friday afternoon prayer ..& on important days of the year
F5 A conservative follower of Islam ... follows all 5 pillars of Islam ..visits Mosque regularly
F6 Follows all 5 pillars of Islam ... rejects other faiths & modern culture

10. Running the ‘experiment’
• Respondent invited
• Respondent clicks on embedded link
• Experiment begins with an orientation screen
• Respondent reads 48 vignettes, rating each on two scales
• Rate the likelihood of this person in the vignette becoming
radicalized
• Select the emotion that this person might be feeling, based on the
vignette
• Complete the classification
• Total length of time – about 18 minutes

14. Now the statistics – for question #1
(probability to radicalize)
• Goal – discover which elements ‘drive’ the perception of likely radicalization
• Dependent variable = probability of radicalizing
• How to read the data, and what to look for
• Constant = baseline probability to that the person in the vignette will radicalize …. in the absence of informing
elements … a propensity to say ‘radicalize’ as a basic response, without specific supporting evidence. E.g., a + 50
means that without elements, there is a 50% probability of the respondents judging that person described in the
vignette WILL RADICALIZE. Look for very high numbers (everyone will radicalize), or very low numbers (sings
kumbayah, no one will radicalize) … UNTIL…
• Numbers = additive probability to radicalize when the element is included in the vignette, as part of a
description of a person. E.g., +12 means that that when element is included in vignette, an additional 12% of
respondents would say ‘will definitely radicalize’
• There are positives… look for a COMMON theme
• But there are few negatives … very few behaviors “give the described person a ‘pass’ “

15. What co-varies with perceived
‘likelihood to radicalize?’

16. Total Panel
Probability to
radicalize
Data from total
panel
High basic
likelihood to
report
radicalization -
50%
A few strong
elements in yellow
CONSTANT - Base probability of thinking radicalization in absence of elements 50
E1 To die as a martyr .. greatest way to serve Allah 12
E6 Apostates .. threats to Islam and caliphate ...must be slain 11
E5 Homosexuals and adulterous women ... should be stoned 11
B2 Accepts people doing violent acts towards others 7
A5 Women must wear a hijab at all times.. no make-up.. stay away from westerners ... beaten if they disagree 5
D5 Islamic law has higher precedence ... should replace the legal system in use today 5
A6 “Women who don't wear a hijab or burqa ... or wear revealing clothing... nothing more than sex slaves” 4
C6 Opposes ... and friends oppose ... liberal Muslims, gay people and members of other religions 4
F6 Follows all 5 pillars of Islam ... rejects other faiths & modern culture 4
B5 Victim of persistent bullying 3
C1 No friends 3
B1 Accepts people bully others 3
F5 A conservative follower of Islam ... follows all 5 pillars of Islam ..visits Mosque regularly 2
B4 Victim of persistent aggression 2
C4 Strong preference for Muslim friends 2
E3 Polygamy is permitted … the Muhammad had multiple wives 2
A3 Women should wear a hijab ...& clothing which fully covers them 1
A4 Women should wear a hijab ...never jeans or revealing clothing outside their home 1
E4 Strictly against gambling... intoxicants .... polytheism 1
E2 There is one God (Allah) … Muhammad is his messenger 1
B6 Victim of violent acts 1
D6 Those who do not follow all of the Islamic laws.. are non-believers ...punished in the "afterlife" 1
D3 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam 0
F4 Makes 5 daily prayers, visits Mosque for Friday afternoon prayer ..& on important days of the year 0
B3 Worries about anti-islamic policies 0
D4 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam ..& most of the non-violent Islamic laws governing human interaction -1
D2 Does best not to eat pork or drink alcohol -1
F1 Keeps distance from religious people -1
F3 Prays when convenient ... visits Mosque only on important days of the Islamic year -2
C5 Muslim friends are conservative -2
A2 Women may wear open sleeves and above the knee shorts ... nothing beyond that -2
F2 Does not practice Islam ,,,but.. accepts its culture -3
A1 It's irrelevant what women wear -4
D1 Doesn’t care very much about written Islamic laws -4
C3 Friends with people from many religious backgrounds -4
C2 Has friends in both the gay community.. and from many religious backgrounds -6

17. Muslims vs Other
Muslims see a much
higher basic
probability to
radicalize (61 vs 39)
But don’t pay
attention to the
individual elements
The ‘Others’ pay a lot
of attention, but only
to four elements…
violent ones
Some elements give a
pass … like friends in
the gay community
Muslim Other
CONSTANT: Base probability of thinking radicalization in absence of elements 61 39
B2 Accepts people doing violent acts towards others 2 12
B5 Victim of persistent bullying 2 5
D5 Islamic law has higher precedence ... should replace the legal system in use today 1 8
A6 “Women who don't wear a hijab or burqa ... or wear revealing clothing... nothing more than sex slaves” 1 8
E6 Apostates .. threats to Islam and caliphate ...must be slain 1 21
A5 Women must wear a hijab at all times.. no make-up.. stay away from westerners ... beaten if they disagree 1 10
E5 Homosexuals and adulterous women ... should be stoned 1 20
E1 To die as a martyr .. greatest way to serve Allah 1 23
F6 Follows all 5 pillars of Islam ... rejects other faiths & modern culture 0 7
B4 Victim of persistent aggression 0 4
F1 Keeps distance from religious people 0 -3
C6 Opposes ... and friends oppose ... liberal Muslims, gay people and members of other religions 0 8
D3 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam 0 1
F5 A conservative follower of Islam ... follows all 5 pillars of Islam ..visits Mosque regularly 0 4
E3 Polygamy is permitted … the Muhammad had multiple wives 0 3
B1 Accepts people bully others -1 5
C4 Strong preference for Muslim friends -1 4
E2 There is one God (Allah) … Muhammad is his messenger -1 3
E4 Strictly against gambling... intoxicants .... polytheism -1 3
B6 Victim of violent acts -1 3
F3 Prays when convenient ... visits Mosque only on important days of the Islamic year -1 -2
F4 Makes 5 daily prayers, visits Mosque for Friday afternoon prayer ..& on important days of the year -1 2
A3 Women should wear a hijab ...& clothing which fully covers them -1 4
D2 Does best not to eat pork or drink alcohol -1 -1
B3 Worries about anti-islamic policies -1 2
A4 Women should wear a hijab ...never jeans or revealing clothing outside their home -2 4
C1 No friends -2 7
D6 Those who do not follow all of the Islamic laws.. are non-believers ...punished in the "afterlife" -2 4
F2 Does not practice Islam ,,,but.. accepts its culture -2 -4
A1 It's irrelevant what women wear -2 -5
A2 Women may wear open sleeves and above the knee shorts ... nothing beyond that -2 -2
D4 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam ..& most of the non-violent Islamic laws governing human interaction -3 1
D1 Doesn’t care very much about written Islamic laws -3 -4
C5 Muslim friends are conservative -3 0
C2 Has friends in both the gay community.. and from many religious backgrounds -3 -8
C3 Friends with people from many religious backgrounds -3 -5

18. We are known and judged by the friends we keep
• When we learn some things about a person, that information ‘drives our judgment’
• We looked at how the six pieces of information about the social circle of the described person
(Elements C1-C6) set up the framework for judgment
• Depending upon who the described person has as friends, the person will be judged harshly
(perceived more likely to be radicalized), or leniently (perceived less likely to be radicalized)
• Further, the social circle of the described person affects how we judge the other actions of that
person … actions presented by the other elements
• These friends lead us to judge the person harshly (likely to be radicalized)
• Strong preference for Muslim friends
• Opposes ... and friends oppose ... liberal Muslims, gay people and members of other religions
• No friends
• NO MENTION OF FRIENDS
• These friends lead us to judge the person more leniently (less likely to be radicalized)
• Muslim friends are conservative
• Has friends in both the gay community.. and from many religious backgrounds
• Friends with people from many religious backgrounds

19. Information about social circle provided by Silo C…and how
it ‘drives’ judgements about possible radicalization
Data from Total Panel
Strongpreferencefor
Muslimfriends
Opposes...andfriends
oppose...liberal
Muslims,gaypeopleand
membersofother
religions
Nofriends
None
Friendswithpeople
frommanyreligious
backgrounds
Hasfriendsinboththe
gaycommunity..and
frommanyreligious
backgrounds
Muslimfriendsare
conservative
C4 c6 C1 C0 C3 C2 C5
Harsh Harsh Harsh Lenient Lenient Lenient
Additive constant – likelihood of being judged ‘will radicalize’ in the absence of other information 65 64 49 48 43 42 35
E6 Apostates .. threats to Islam and caliphate ...must be slain 7 6 16 12 12 8 13
E1 To die as a martyr .. greatest way to serve serving Allah 11 12 14 11 12 12 17
E5 Homosexuals and adulterous women ... should be stoned 10 6 8 10 18 14 15
D5 Islamic law has higher precedence ... should replace the legal system in use today -1 -3 7 6 1 9 8
F6 Follows all 5 pillars of Islam ... rejects other faiths & modern culture 1 1 4 6 2 2 5
B2 Accepts people doing violent acts towards others 1 4 6 6 12 9 12
A5 Women must wear a hijab at all times.. no make-up.. stay away from westerners ... beaten if they disagree -2 5 3 6 5 7 16
A6 “Women who don't wear a hijab or burqa ... or wear revealing clothing... nothing more than sex slaves” -1 -2 4 5 5 5 11
A4 Women should wear a hijab ...never jeans or revealing clothing outside their home -2 -7 -1 4 1 3 6
B1 Accepts people bully others -6 -1 7 4 -5 2 12
F5 A conservative follower of Islam ... follows all 5 pillars of Islam ..visits Mosque regularly -1 -2 3 3 1 1 8
A3 Women should wear a hijab ...& clothing which fully covers them -9 1 3 3 6 2 0
D3 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam -3 -5 7 3 -4 3 -3
E3 Polygamy is permitted … the Muhammad had multiple wives -2 -3 0 2 1 5 5
D6 Those who do not follow all of the Islamic laws.. are non-believers ...punished in the "afterlife" -4 -14 6 2 3 1 7
F4 Makes 5 daily prayers, visits Mosque for Friday afternoon prayer ..& on important days of the year -8 -1 -4 2 1 -2 10
B5 Victim of persistent bullying -1 4 3 2 7 0 11
D4 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam ..& most of the non-violent Islamic laws governing human interaction -2 -8 1 1 -1 -2 -2
E4 Strictly against gambling... intoxicants .... polytheism -4 -2 0 1 2 0 9
B4 Victim of persistent aggression 1 4 3 1 5 -3 8
F1 Keeps distance from religious people -8 -3 5 1 -4 -2 -1
B3 Worries about anti-islamic policies -7 -3 4 0 3 0 2
F3 Prays when convenient ... visits Mosque only on important days of the Islamic year -3 -13 0 0 -1 1 4
E2 There is one God (Allah) … Muhammad is his messenger -7 -1 3 -1 7 6 6
B6 Victim of violent acts -6 4 4 -1 6 4 8
D2 Does best not to eat pork or drink alcohol -6 -5 1 -2 -1 4 5
D1 Doesn’t care very much about written Islamic laws -9 -8 1 -3 -10 -5 3
A2 Women may wear open sleeves and above the knee shorts ... nothing beyond that -6 -4 -2 -3 3 -7 2
A1 It's irrelevant what women wear -9 -14 -4 -3 0 1 6
F2 Does not practice Islam ,,,but.. accepts its culture -7 -3 -4 -3 -4 2 3

20. Information about ‘social circle’
Comparing Muslims and Other
Numbers are different constants from various models =
Basic Probability of radicalizing when the only thing we know is the ‘type
of friend’ or social circle of the ‘described person’
Example: Higher perceived BASIC probability of radicalization when Muslim presented
with a description of a person who has a ‘strong preference for Muslim friends’
Prob of
Rad
Prob of
Rad
Type of friend common to the vignette Muslim Other
C4 Strong preference for Muslim friends 71 60
C6
Opposes ... and friends oppose ... liberal Muslims, gay people and members of
other religions
62 62
C2 Has friends in both the gay community.. and from many religious backgrounds
62 26
C1 No friends 60 37
C0 No friend mentioned in vignette 60 37
C3 Friends with people from many religious backgrounds 55 33
C5 Muslim friends are conservative
49 22

21. Some observations and concerns
• Non Muslims (other) perceive a lower basic likelihood of radicalization … but certain
violent statements set off internal alarms
You may get trigger responses from nervous non Muslims … even for normal behavior
• Muslims perceive a high basic likelihood of radicalization… but nothing we present to
them moves them BEYOND that basic alarm
You probably WON’T get a report from a Muslim…even though he/she is convinced of
radicalization
• Other science tells us that people vary in the way they respond to the world. People form
mind-sets. In a mind-set members think alike. Across mind-sets members think
differently. These mind-sets TRANSCEND gender, age, race, religion. Can we find these
mind-sets in our data, independent of religion?

22. Four mind-sets
• How .. Cluster the different coefficients
• Coefficient – likelihood to report ‘will radicalize’ based on the element
• People with similar patterns … same elements trigger them … fall into the same
mind-sets
• We actually found six mind-sets, but three of them collapsed into one
Two frightening scenarios
Out of these four mind-sets, which one(s) will REPORT a minor problem to the
authorities…and …report again and again … should we respond & go bankrupt?
Out of these four mind-sets, which one(s) will NOT REPORT a problem to the
authorities, even an obvious one ..and .. might we miss the BIG ONE?

23. Group A
(Segment 1)
Largest segment
Very high basic likelihood to
see radicalization in actions -
91%
But don’t expect any
reports, even from serious
stuff
No elements stand out
Gives a pass to most actions
Rad Prob
Mind-set segment F1 F2 F5 F346
Base size 71 45 51 59
Constant = Based belief that a person will be radicalized 91 -23 61 38
F4 Makes 5 daily prayers, visits Mosque for Friday afternoon prayer ..& on important days of the year 1 17 -5 -3
F6 Follows all 5 pillars of Islam ... rejects other faiths & modern culture -1 17 0 1
E1 To die as a martyr .. greatest way to serve Allah -1 32 27 2
E5 Homosexuals and adulterous women ... should be stoned -1 33 19 0
C6 Opposes ... and friends oppose ... liberal Muslims, gay people and members of other religions -2 20 -2 7
F5 A conservative follower of Islam ... follows all 5 pillars of Islam ..visits Mosque regularly -2 17 -3 8
B5 Victim of persistent bullying -2 21 -7 9
C2 Has friends in both the gay community.. and from many religious backgrounds -2 7 -17 2
C1 No friends -2 12 0 6
C5 Muslim friends are conservative -3 13 -11 -2
B6 Victim of violent acts -3 19 -13 7
B2 Accepts people doing violent acts towards others -3 29 1 14
C4 Strong preference for Muslim friends -3 18 -3 1
E6 Apostates .. threats to Islam and caliphate ...must be slain -4 35 24 2
E3 Polygamy is permitted … Muhammad had multiple wives -4 18 6 -10
A5 Women must wear a hijab at all times.. no make-up.. stay away from westerners ... beaten if they disagree -4 20 4 10
F2 Does not practice Islam ,,,but.. accepts its culture -4 8 -13 -1
E4 Strictly against gambling... intoxicants .... polytheism -5 21 11 -12
F3 Prays when convenient ... visits Mosque only on important days of the Islamic year -5 15 -13 4
F1 Keeps distance from religious people -5 12 -12 6
E2 There is one God (Allah) … Muhammad is his messenger -5 20 8 -7
D3 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam -6 20 -6 1
B4 Victim of persistent aggression -6 23 -4 6
C3 Friends with people from many religious backgrounds -6 6 -12 -1
B1 Accepts people bully others -6 20 -5 9
A6 “Women who don't wear a hijab or burqa ... or wear revealing clothing... nothing more than sex slaves” -6 18 4 12
B3 Worries about anti-islamic policies -6 15 -13 6
A4 Women should wear a hijab ...never jeans or revealing clothing outside their home -7 11 -4 13
A1 It's irrelevant what women wear -7 8 -10 2
D5 Islamic law has higher precedence ... should replace the legal system in use today -8 24 2 4
D6 Those who do not follow all of the Islamic laws.. are non-believers ...punished in the "afterlife" -9 18 -2 1
A3 Women should wear a hijab ...& clothing which fully covers them -10 12 1 9
A2 Women may wear open sleeves and above the knee shorts ... nothing beyond that -10 13 -7 9
D2 Does best not to eat pork or drink alcohol -10 18 -9 -4
D1 Doesn’t care very much about written Islamic laws -12 13 -9 -4
D4 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam ..& most of the non-violent Islamic laws governing human interaction -12 15 -8 -3

24. Group D
(Segment 2)
Very low basic
likelihood to see
radicalization in
actions – -23
Recognizes
fundamentalism in
everything
Not likely to give a
pass to anything …
vigilant and
excitable
Mind-set segment F1 F2 F5 F346
Base size 71 45 51 59
Constant = Based belief that a person will be radicalized 91 -23 61 38
E6 Apostates .. threats to Islam and caliphate ...must be slain -4 35 24 2
E5 Homosexuals and adulterous women ... should be stoned -1 33 19 0
E1 To die as a martyr .. greatest way to serve Allah -1 32 27 2
B2 Accepts people doing violent acts towards others -3 29 1 14
D5 Islamic law has higher precedence ... should replace the legal system in use today -8 24 2 4
B4 Victim of persistent aggression -6 23 -4 6
B5 Victim of persistent bullying -2 21 -7 9
E4 Strictly against gambling... intoxicants .... polytheism -5 21 11 -12
B1 Accepts people bully others -6 20 -5 9
D3 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam -6 20 -6 1
C6 Opposes ... and friends oppose ... liberal Muslims, gay people and members of other religions -2 20 -2 7
A5 Women must wear a hijab at all times.. no make-up.. stay away from westerners ... beaten if they disagree -4 20 4 10
E2 There is one God (Allah) … Muhammad is his messenger -5 20 8 -7
B6 Victim of violent acts -3 19 -13 7
C4 Strong preference for Muslim friends -3 18 -3 1
A6 “Women who don't wear a hijab or burqa ... or wear revealing clothing... nothing more than sex slaves” -6 18 4 12
E3 Polygamy is permitted … Muhammad had multiple wives -4 18 6 -10
D6 Those who do not follow all of the Islamic laws.. are non-believers ...punished in the "afterlife" -9 18 -2 1
D2 Does best not to eat pork or drink alcohol -10 18 -9 -4
F5 A conservative follower of Islam ... follows all 5 pillars of Islam ..visits Mosque regularly -2 17 -3 8
F4 Makes 5 daily prayers, visits Mosque for Friday afternoon prayer ..& on important days of the year 1 17 -5 -3
F6 Follows all 5 pillars of Islam ... rejects other faiths & modern culture -1 17 0 1
B3 Worries about anti-islamic policies -6 15 -13 6
D4 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam ..& most of the non-violent Islamic laws governing human interaction -12 15 -8 -3
F3 Prays when convenient ... visits Mosque only on important days of the Islamic year -5 15 -13 4
A2 Women may wear open sleeves and above the knee shorts ... nothing beyond that -10 13 -7 9
D1 Doesn’t care very much about written Islamic laws -12 13 -9 -4
C5 Muslim friends are conservative -3 13 -11 -2
C1 No friends -2 12 0 6
A3 Women should wear a hijab ...& clothing which fully covers them -10 12 1 9
F1 Keeps distance from religious people -5 12 -12 6
A4 Women should wear a hijab ...never jeans or revealing clothing outside their home -7 11 -4 13
F2 Does not practice Islam ,,,but.. accepts its culture -4 8 -13 -1
A1 It's irrelevant what women wear -7 8 -10 2
C2 Has friends in both the gay community.. and from many religious backgrounds -2 7 -17 2
C3 Friends with people from many religious backgrounds -6 6 -12 -1

25. Group B
(Segment 5)
High basic
likelihood to see
radicalization in
actions – 61%
Recognizes
fundamentalism
But…Likely to give
a ‘pass’ to many
actions
Mind-set segment F1 F2 F5 F346
Base size 71 45 51 59
Constant = Based belief that a person will be radicalized 91 -23 61 38
E1 To die as a martyr .. greatest way to serve Allah -1 32 27 2
E6 Apostates .. threats to Islam and caliphate ...must be slain -4 35 24 2
E5 Homosexuals and adulterous women ... should be stoned -1 33 19 0
E4 Strictly against gambling... intoxicants .... polytheism -5 21 11 -12
E2 There is one God (Allah) … Muhammad is his messenger -5 20 8 -7
E3 Polygamy is permitted … Muhammad had multiple wives -4 18 6 -10
A6 “Women who don't wear a hijab or burqa ... or wear revealing clothing... nothing more than sex slaves” -6 18 4 12
A5 Women must wear a hijab at all times.. no make-up.. stay away from westerners ... beaten if they disagree -4 20 4 10
D5 Islamic law has higher precedence ... should replace the legal system in use today -8 24 2 4
A3 Women should wear a hijab ...& clothing which fully covers them -10 12 1 9
B2 Accepts people doing violent acts towards others -3 29 1 14
C1 No friends -2 12 0 6
F6 Follows all 5 pillars of Islam ... rejects other faiths & modern culture -1 17 0 1
D6 Those who do not follow all of the Islamic laws.. are non-believers ...punished in the "afterlife" -9 18 -2 1
C6 Opposes ... and friends oppose ... liberal Muslims, gay people and members of other religions -2 20 -2 7
C4 Strong preference for Muslim friends -3 18 -3 1
F5 A conservative follower of Islam ... follows all 5 pillars of Islam ..visits Mosque regularly -2 17 -3 8
B4 Victim of persistent aggression -6 23 -4 6
A4 Women should wear a hijab ...never jeans or revealing clothing outside their home -7 11 -4 13
F4 Makes 5 daily prayers, visits Mosque for Friday afternoon prayer ..& on important days of the year 1 17 -5 -3
B1 Accepts people bully others -6 20 -5 9
D3 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam -6 20 -6 1
A2 Women may wear open sleeves and above the knee shorts ... nothing beyond that -10 13 -7 9
B5 Victim of persistent bullying -2 21 -7 9
D4 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam ..& most of the non-violent Islamic laws governing human interaction -12 15 -8 -3
D1 Doesn’t care very much about written Islamic laws -12 13 -9 -4
D2 Does best not to eat pork or drink alcohol -10 18 -9 -4
A1 It's irrelevant what women wear -7 8 -10 2
C5 Muslim friends are conservative -3 13 -11 -2
C3 Friends with people from many religious backgrounds -6 6 -12 -1
F1 Keeps distance from religious people -5 12 -12 6
B3 Worries about anti-islamic policies -6 15 -13 6
F2 Does not practice Islam ,,,but.. accepts its culture -4 8 -13 -1
B6 Victim of violent acts -3 19 -13 7
F3 Prays when convenient ... visits Mosque only on important days of the Islamic year -5 15 -13 4
C2 Has friends in both the gay community.. and from many religious backgrounds -2 7 -17 2

26. Group C
(Segment 346)
Modest basic likelihood
to see radicalization in
actions – 38%
Strict on proper
behavior
But…Likely to give a
‘pass’ on some actions
Mind-set segment F1 F2 F5 F346
Base size 71 45 51 59
Constant = Based belief that a person will be radicalized 91 -23 61 38
B2 Accepts people doing violent acts towards others -3 29 1 14
A4 Women should wear a hijab ...never jeans or revealing clothing outside their home -7 11 -4 13
A6 “Women who don't wear a hijab or burqa ... or wear revealing clothing... nothing more than sex slaves” -6 18 4 12
A5 Women must wear a hijab at all times.. no make-up.. stay away from westerners ... beaten if they disagree -4 20 4 10
B1 Accepts people bully others -6 20 -5 9
A2 Women may wear open sleeves and above the knee shorts ... nothing beyond that -10 13 -7 9
B5 Victim of persistent bullying -2 21 -7 9
A3 Women should wear a hijab ...& clothing which fully covers them -10 12 1 9
F5 A conservative follower of Islam ... follows all 5 pillars of Islam ..visits Mosque regularly -2 17 -3 8
C6 Opposes ... and friends oppose ... liberal Muslims, gay people and members of other religions -2 20 -2 7
B6 Victim of violent acts -3 19 -13 7
C1 No friends -2 12 0 6
B4 Victim of persistent aggression -6 23 -4 6
F1 Keeps distance from religious people -5 12 -12 6
B3 Worries about anti-islamic policies -6 15 -13 6
F3 Prays when convenient ... visits Mosque only on important days of the Islamic year -5 15 -13 4
D5 Islamic law has higher precedence ... should replace the legal system in use today -8 24 2 4
A1 It's irrelevant what women wear -7 8 -10 2
E1 To die as a martyr .. greatest way to serve Allah -1 32 27 2
C2 Has friends in both the gay community.. and from many religious backgrounds -2 7 -17 2
E6 Apostates .. threats to Islam and caliphate ...must be slain -4 35 24 2
D6 Those who do not follow all of the Islamic laws.. are non-believers ...punished in the "afterlife" -9 18 -2 1
D3 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam -6 20 -6 1
C4 Strong preference for Muslim friends -3 18 -3 1
F6 Follows all 5 pillars of Islam ... rejects other faiths & modern culture -1 17 0 1
E5 Homosexuals and adulterous women ... should be stoned -1 33 19 0
F2 Does not practice Islam ,,,but.. accepts its culture -4 8 -13 -1
C3 Friends with people from many religious backgrounds -6 6 -12 -1
C5 Muslim friends are conservative -3 13 -11 -2
D4 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam ..& most of the non-violent Islamic laws governing human interaction -12 15 -8 -3
F4 Makes 5 daily prayers, visits Mosque for Friday afternoon prayer ..& on important days of the year 1 17 -5 -3
D1 Doesn’t care very much about written Islamic laws -12 13 -9 -4
D2 Does best not to eat pork or drink alcohol -10 18 -9 -4
E2 There is one God (Allah) … Muhammad is his messenger -5 20 8 -7
E3 Polygamy is permitted … Muhammad had multiple wives -4 18 6 -10
E4 Strictly against gambling... intoxicants .... polytheism -5 21 11 -12

27. What emotions are attributed to
the people in the vignette?

28. The nine positive emotions according to Dr. David Forbes

29. Muslims attribute different emotions to the people described in
the vignette … especially ‘secure’
Total Muslim Other
9Secure 14 23 5
6Identify 18 14 21
5Esteem 12 12 13
8Nurture 8 11 5
7Master 13 11 15
2Belong 11 8 14
4Engage 10 8 11
1Achieve 6 7 5
3Empower 8 6 10
Total 100% 100% 100%

30. Frequency of emotions selected in Question 2 to describe ‘what the
feeling is experienced by the person described in the vignette’
Total Group A
Seg1
Group B
Seg5
Group C
Seg346
Group D
Seg2
Basic feeling Suspicious Not suspicious
Response to
elements
Not responsive Somewhat
responsive
More
responsive
Very responsive
6Identify 16 12 20 15 19
5Esteem 14 15 13 11 12
9Secure 14 28 8 10 4
7Master 13 14 13 11 9
2Belong 12 4 16 17 16
4Engage 10 6 11 9 12
3Empower 8 3 9 11 12
8Nurture 8 14 5 3 4
1Achieve 6 4 4 12 12
Total % 100 100 100 100 100
Our suspicious segment (Group A) attributes to the vignettes feelings of ‘secure’
Our non suspicious segment (Group D) attributes to the vignettes feelings of identity and belonging

31. What emotions are associated with the three levels of
likelihood to radicalize (low=1-3, medium=4-6, high=7-9)?
Muslim Total Low
Rad1
Med
Rad 2
High
Rad 3
Other Total Low
Rad1
Med
Rad 2
High
Rad 3
1Achieve 7 23 1 1 1Achieve 5 14 2 2
2Belong 8 24 4 2 2Belong 15 22 12 11
3Empower 6 11 7 2 3Empower 10 12 10 10
4Engage 8 10 13 3 4Engage 11 10 14 10
5Esteem 13 10 27 5 5Esteem 14 11 24 7
6Identify 13 11 22 8 6Identify 19 14 25 18
7Master 11 5 14 12 7Master 14 5 9 27
8Nurture 11 3 6 20 8Nurture 5 6 2 7
9Secure 23 4 6 46 9Secure 5 6 2 8
Total 100 100 100 100 Total 100 100 100 100

32. Question 2 (attribute emotion) identifies emotional projection
Only some elements generate strong emotion linkages
Muslims project the emotion ‘secure’ onto the elements ..following the rules
Non Muslims project the emotion ‘identity’ onto the elements …thinks about religion
High linkage with emotion 'secure' Muslim Other
E2 There is one God (Allah) … Muhammad is his messenger 9 1
D2 Does best not to eat pork or drink alcohol 9 2
B4 Victim of persistent aggression 8 0
D6 Those who do not follow all of the Islamic laws.. are non-believers ...punished in the "afterlife" 7 1
A2 Women may wear open sleeves and above the knee shorts ... nothing beyond that 7 0
F6 Follows all 5 pillars of Islam ... rejects other faiths & modern culture 7 2
A5 Women must wear a hijab at all times.. no make-up.. stay away from westerners ... beaten if they disagree 7 1
D3 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam 7 3
A6 “Women who don't wear a hijab or burqa ... or wear revealing clothing... nothing more than sex slaves” 7 0
E4 Strictly against gambling... intoxicants .... polytheism 7 2
F3 Prays when convenient ... visits Mosque only on important days of the Islamic year 7 4
B2 Accepts people doing violent acts towards others 7 0
High linkage with emotion ‘identity' Muslim Other
A4 Women should wear a hijab ...never jeans or revealing clothing outside their home 7 10
B3 Worries about anti-islamic policies 3 8
D5 Islamic law has higher precedence ... should replace the legal system in use today 2 8
F5 A conservative follower of Islam ... follows all 5 pillars of Islam ..visits Mosque regularly 4 8
C1 No friends 5 8
A3
Women should wear a hijab ...& clothing which fully covers them 3 8
F3 3 7

33. One practical application –
recognizing a Segment 2 informant

34. Recall the definition of Segment 2 (or Group D)
Very low basic likelihood to see radicalization as a fundamental
aspect of a person …. Constant = –23
But….Recognizes fundamentalism in many actions
Not likely to give a pass to anything … vigilant and excitable
If there is a ‘sensitive’ out there…it’s a person from Segment 2
All other things being equal….If you do get a report … you’re likely to
get it first from a Segment 2 person …. Who seems to be sensitized
to the behaviors

35. Mind-set segment F2
Base size 45
Constant = Based belief that a person will be radicalized -23
E6 Apostates .. threats to Islam and caliphate ...must be slain 35
E5 Homosexuals and adulterous women ... should be stoned 33
E1 To die as a martyr .. greatest way to serve Allah 32
B2 Accepts people doing violent acts towards others 29
D5 Islamic law has higher precedence ... should replace the legal system in use today 24
B4 Victim of persistent aggression 23
B5 Victim of persistent bullying 21
E4 Strictly against gambling... intoxicants .... polytheism 21
B1 Accepts people bully others 20
D3 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam 20
C6 Opposes ... and friends oppose ... liberal Muslims, gay people and members of other religions 20
A5 Women must wear a hijab at all times.. no make-up.. stay away from westerners ... beaten if they disagree 20
E2 There is one God (Allah) … Muhammad is his messenger 20
B6 Victim of violent acts 19
C4 Strong preference for Muslim friends 18
A6 “Women who don't wear a hijab or burqa ... or wear revealing clothing... nothing more than sex slaves” 18
E3 Polygamy is permitted … Muhammad had multiple wives 18
D6 Those who do not follow all of the Islamic laws.. are non-believers ...punished in the "afterlife" 18
D2 Does best not to eat pork or drink alcohol 18
F5 A conservative follower of Islam ... follows all 5 pillars of Islam ..visits Mosque regularly 17
F4 Makes 5 daily prayers, visits Mosque for Friday afternoon prayer ..& on important days of the year 17
F6 Follows all 5 pillars of Islam ... rejects other faiths & modern culture 17
B3 Worries about anti-islamic policies 15
D4 Believes in the 5 pillars of Islam ..& most of the non-violent Islamic laws governing human interaction 15
F3 Prays when convenient ... visits Mosque only on important days of the Islamic year 15
A2 Women may wear open sleeves and above the knee shorts ... nothing beyond that 13
D1 Doesn’t care very much about written Islamic laws 13
C5 Muslim friends are conservative 13
C1 No friends 12
A3 Women should wear a hijab ...& clothing which fully covers them 12
F1 Keeps distance from religious people 12
A4 Women should wear a hijab ...never jeans or revealing clothing outside their home 11
F2 Does not practice Islam ,,,but.. accepts its culture 8
A1 It's irrelevant what women wear 8
C2 Has friends in both the gay community.. and from many religious backgrounds 7
C3 Friends with people from many religious backgrounds 6

36. So…how do you know you are dealing with a
Segment 2 informant … a likely ‘early warning?’
• Use discriminant function analysis
• If each element were rated on a 1-3 scale, what elements would you
need, and how would you score them
• The 3-point scale is
• 1=Probably not radicalized
• 2 = Maybe not / Maybe radicalized
• 3 = Probably radicalized
• Next table suggest about 2/3 of the time we can discern a Segment 2
informant by knowing the answers to 8 questions

37. Use DFA (discriminant function) to assign informant
to either Segment 2 mind-set or other mind-set
• If Segment 2 person, then likely a hyper-vigilant doing the report
• If Other, then likely a serious situation because ‘Others‘ have greater suspicion but
are less likely to respond to individual actions unless serious
• Green = clear assignment of person to segment , yellow= unclear assignment

38. HOWARD R. MOSKOWITZ - BIOGRAPHY
Chairman, Mind Genomics Associates
Chief Science Officer, Mind Genomics Advisors (www.MindGenomics.com)
11 Sherman Ave, White Plains, NY, USA 10605
Phone 914.572.1673 email: mjihrm@sprynet.com
Dr. Howard R. Moskowitz founded Mind Genomics Associates in 2014, to promote the development and use of the new science of Mind Genomics. The science creates an archival and action-
oriented database for knowledge about how people think about the aspects of their daily life. The science is used in business to drive 1:1 sales and marketing, and in social research to
understand what is important, and what should be communicated to citizens of a country for socially relevant issues.
Dr. Moskowitz is also chairman of Mind Genomics Advisors, a consulting firm which provides innovative, customized predictive analytics for a variety of organizations, using the Mind Genomics
platform.
Dr. Moskowitz is a well-known experimental psychologist in the field of psychophysics and creator of world-class market research technology. In 1969, Dr. Moskowitz earned a Ph.D. in
Experimental Psychology from Harvard University. He graduated Phi Beta Kappa from Queens College (CUNY) with degrees in mathematics and psychology.
Dr. Howard Moskowitz received awards for his innovative contributions to the field of marketing research. He received the “2012 Edison Award for Innovation” (Bronze Award - Applied
Technology/Research Tools category) for the creation of Mind Genomics®, the aforementioned internationally-recognized science using experimental design and predictive analytics to uncover
individual human preferences for products, services, ideas and social issues. Dr. Moskowitz has also received: the “2010 Walston Chubb Award for Innovation” across all sciences from Sigma Xi
- The Scientific Research Society; the Advertising Research Foundation’s first “Research Innovation Award” in 2006; the 2004 “David R. Peryam Award" from ASTM for outstanding
contributions in basic and applied sensory science, and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research) Awards in 2001, 2003, 2004 & 2006 for research innovation.
In 2005 Dr. Moskowitz received the American Marketing Association’s 2005 “Charles Coolidge Parlin Marketing Research Award.” The AMA “Parlin Marketing Research” award is considered the
“Nobel Prize” of market research and has been given to pioneers in the field of marketing including: Arthur Nielsen, George Gallup, Michael Porter, David Ogilvy and Philip Kotler. In 2004, Dr.
Moskowitz was elected an Institute of Food Technologist Fellow and in 2006 he was inducted into the Hall of Fame of New York’s Market Research Council.
Dr. Howard Moskowitz is also a distinguished author, speaker, and mentor to students world-wide. He has written/edited 26 books and over 400 scientific publications on the mind of the
consumer. The books span a wide range of topics, ranging from business to mentoring students. The books include: “Selling Blue Elephants: How to make great products that people want
before they even know they want them” (Pearson/Wharton School Publishing, 2007) published in 14 languages/editions, Packaging Research in New Food Product Development (Wiley-
Blackwell, 2009), and Rule Developing Experimentation: A Systematic Approach to Understand & Engineer the Consumer Mind (Bentham eBooks, 2012). In 2010, Dr. Moskowitz wrote YOU!
What you MUST know to start your career as a professional. Recently Dr. Moskowitz completed a new set of 19 books on Mind Genomics, with the intent to publish these as e-books,
affordable to students and professionals alike.
Link to the Mind Genomics DropBox: https://www.dropbox.com/sh/vlyiqp6p5eom0m1/AAC1WRPuHOGpax6TLq-md824a?dl=0