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F E B R U A R Y 1 , 2 0 1 6
Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y / I O W A N S
PAGE 3
M O S T I M P ORTAN T I S S UE S: T E R R ORIS M N O T A S I M P O RTA NT T O
I O WA R E P U BL ICA NS; H E A LTH C...
PAGE 4
AT T R IB UTES V O T ERS A R E L O O K ING F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S
N O M I NE E N AT IO NALLY A N D I N I O ...
PAGE 5
L I K E LY R E P U BL ICA N C A U CUS G O E RS I N I O WA T H I N K E L E C TIO N
I S M O R E A B O U T L E A DE RS...
PAGE  6
N AT I ONA LLY, V O T ERS WA N T C H A N GE O V E R E X P ERI ENC E; L I K E LY
I O WA C A U C US G O E R S R E F ...
I O W A C A U C U S
PAGE 8
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R D E MOCRATS
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Democrat...
PAGE 9
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R R E P U BL ICAN S
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Re...
R E P U B L I C A N S
PAGE 11
T R U M P J U M PS A H E AD O F C R U Z A S W E
N E A R T H E F I N I SH L I N E I N I O WA ; L AT E
J U M P B Y R...
PAGE 12
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls...
Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016 PAGE 13
I O WA N S S H O W G R E ATER I N T E NSI TY O F S U P P ORT F O R T R...
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 PAGE 14
M A J O RI TY O F I O WA R E P U B LIC ANS H AV E M A D E U P T H E I...
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 15
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS N O T C O N ...
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Pollsters have noted differences in their...
D E M O C R A T S
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C L I N TON ’S L E A D O V E R S A N DER S C O N TI NUES T O S H R I NK I N
I O WA
Candidate Average
Hillary Clint...
PAGE 19
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
27%
73%
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
PredictWise Chance of Winnin...
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M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS I N I O WA H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P ;
I N T E NS ITY O F S U P P ORT I...
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 21
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE ...
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Sanders’ success relies heavily on young ...
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PAGE 4 AT T R Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses

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AT T R IB UTES V O T ERS A R E L O O K ING F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S
N O M I NE E N AT IO NALLY A N D I N I O WA
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 18-24, 2016
Democrats Republicans
Shares values 19% 20%
Cares about
needs/problems
28% 13%
Strong leadership 16% 29%
Honest/Trustworthy 14% 21%
Rightexperience 16% 8%
Bestchance ofwinning 6% 7%
Thinking about your party’s nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you?
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015
NATIONALLY IOWA
Democrats Republicans
Shares values 16% 26%
Cares about
needs/problems
26% 9%
Strong leadership 13% 26%
Honest/Trustworthy 17% 24%
Rightexperience 18% 6%
Bestchance ofwinning 9% 7%

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PAGE 4 AT T R IB UTES V O T ERS A R E L O O K ING F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S N O M I NE E N AT IO NALLY A N D I N I O WA Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 18-24, 2016 Democrats Republicans Shares values 19% 20% Cares about needs/problems 28% 13% Strong leadership 16% 29% Honest/Trustworthy 14% 21% Rightexperience 16% 8% Bestchance ofwinning 6% 7% Thinking about your party’s nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you? Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015 NATIONALLY IOWA Democrats Republicans Shares values 16% 26% Cares about needs/problems 26% 9% Strong leadership 13% 26% Honest/Trustworthy 17% 24% Rightexperience 18% 6% Bestchance ofwinning 9% 7%

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