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F E B R U A R Y 1 , 2 0 1 6
Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y / I O W A N S
PAGE 3
M O S T I M P ORTAN T I S S UE S: T E R R ORIS M N O T A S I M P O RTA NT T O
I O WA R E P U BL ICA NS; H E A LTH C...
PAGE 4
AT T R IB UTES V O T ERS A R E L O O K ING F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S
N O M I NE E N AT IO NALLY A N D I N I O ...
PAGE 5
L I K E LY R E P U BL ICA N C A U CUS G O E RS I N I O WA T H I N K E L E C TIO N
I S M O R E A B O U T L E A DE RS...
PAGE  6
N AT I ONA LLY, V O T ERS WA N T C H A N GE O V E R E X P ERI ENC E; L I K E LY
I O WA C A U C US G O E R S R E F ...
I O W A C A U C U S
PAGE 8
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R D E MOCRATS
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Democrat...
PAGE 9
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R R E P U BL ICAN S
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Re...
R E P U B L I C A N S
PAGE 11
T R U M P J U M PS A H E AD O F C R U Z A S W E
N E A R T H E F I N I SH L I N E I N I O WA ; L AT E
J U M P B Y R...
PAGE 12
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls...
Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016 PAGE 13
I O WA N S S H O W G R E ATER I N T E NSI TY O F S U P P ORT F O R T R...
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 PAGE 14
M A J O RI TY O F I O WA R E P U B LIC ANS H AV E M A D E U P T H E I...
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 15
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS N O T C O N ...
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Pollsters have noted differences in their...
D E M O C R A T S
PAGE 18
C L I N TON ’S L E A D O V E R S A N DER S C O N TI NUES T O S H R I NK I N
I O WA
Candidate Average
Hillary Clint...
PAGE 19
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
27%
73%
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
PredictWise Chance of Winnin...
PAGE 20
M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS I N I O WA H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P ;
I N T E NS ITY O F S U P P ORT I...
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 21
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE ...
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Sanders’ success relies heavily on young ...
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Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22 Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses

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Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Sanders’ success relies heavily on young and first-time voters showing up to caucus. Polls haveconsistently found his support sky-high among younger
voters and Clinton’s stronger among older voters.
People under the age of 29 havemade up 9-17 percentof Iowa caucus-goers in the last five presidential elections. With theexceptionof 2008,which
saw a record number of young voters, on averageonly 3-4 percent of eligible caucus-goers under 29 show up to voteon election day. If Sanders
motivates this group to turn out, hecould upset Clinton.
2. Fickle Voters
A recent Quinnipiacpoll of likely Democratic caucus-goers shows 1 in 7 voters who support a candidate say there's a chance they could changetheir
mind by the time they cast their vote. The formatof the caucus provides opportunities for voters to changetheir minds, so thosewaffling ontheir choice
could be convinced to changecandidates.
3. Momentum Shifts: O’Malley
According to the HuffPost pollster average,O'Malley reels in only 4 percent of Democrats, well below the15 percent threshold for a candidate tobe
considered viable. In most caucus locations, O’Malley supporters will be forced to chooseanother candidate. There’s noreal guidance in thepolls on
what O’Malley’s supporters will do, though, sincethereare so few of them. It's hard to say who those 4 percentwill support on caucus day, and with a
race this tight, which way they swing could affect theoutcome.

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Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22 FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA 1. Turnout Sanders’ success relies heavily on young and first-time voters showing up to caucus. Polls haveconsistently found his support sky-high among younger voters and Clinton’s stronger among older voters. People under the age of 29 havemade up 9-17 percentof Iowa caucus-goers in the last five presidential elections. With theexceptionof 2008,which saw a record number of young voters, on averageonly 3-4 percent of eligible caucus-goers under 29 show up to voteon election day. If Sanders motivates this group to turn out, hecould upset Clinton. 2. Fickle Voters A recent Quinnipiacpoll of likely Democratic caucus-goers shows 1 in 7 voters who support a candidate say there's a chance they could changetheir mind by the time they cast their vote. The formatof the caucus provides opportunities for voters to changetheir minds, so thosewaffling ontheir choice could be convinced to changecandidates. 3. Momentum Shifts: O’Malley According to the HuffPost pollster average,O'Malley reels in only 4 percent of Democrats, well below the15 percent threshold for a candidate tobe considered viable. In most caucus locations, O’Malley supporters will be forced to chooseanother candidate. There’s noreal guidance in thepolls on what O’Malley’s supporters will do, though, sincethereare so few of them. It's hard to say who those 4 percentwill support on caucus day, and with a race this tight, which way they swing could affect theoutcome.

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