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F E B R U A R Y 1 , 2 0 1 6
Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y / I O W A N S
PAGE 3
M O S T I M P ORTAN T I S S UE S: T E R R ORIS M N O T A S I M P O RTA NT T O
I O WA R E P U BL ICA NS; H E A LTH C...
PAGE 4
AT T R IB UTES V O T ERS A R E L O O K ING F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S
N O M I NE E N AT IO NALLY A N D I N I O ...
PAGE 5
L I K E LY R E P U BL ICA N C A U CUS G O E RS I N I O WA T H I N K E L E C TIO N
I S M O R E A B O U T L E A DE RS...
PAGE  6
N AT I ONA LLY, V O T ERS WA N T C H A N GE O V E R E X P ERI ENC E; L I K E LY
I O WA C A U C US G O E R S R E F ...
I O W A C A U C U S
PAGE 8
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R D E MOCRATS
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Democrat...
PAGE 9
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R R E P U BL ICAN S
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Re...
R E P U B L I C A N S
PAGE 11
T R U M P J U M PS A H E AD O F C R U Z A S W E
N E A R T H E F I N I SH L I N E I N I O WA ; L AT E
J U M P B Y R...
PAGE 12
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls...
Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016 PAGE 13
I O WA N S S H O W G R E ATER I N T E NSI TY O F S U P P ORT F O R T R...
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 PAGE 14
M A J O RI TY O F I O WA R E P U B LIC ANS H AV E M A D E U P T H E I...
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 15
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS N O T C O N ...
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Pollsters have noted differences in their...
D E M O C R A T S
PAGE 18
C L I N TON ’S L E A D O V E R S A N DER S C O N TI NUES T O S H R I NK I N
I O WA
Candidate Average
Hillary Clint...
PAGE 19
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
27%
73%
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
PredictWise Chance of Winnin...
PAGE 20
M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS I N I O WA H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P ;
I N T E NS ITY O F S U P P ORT I...
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 21
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE ...
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Sanders’ success relies heavily on young ...
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Source: Monmouth University Poll, January Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses

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Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 21
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE D B Y A
C A N D ID ATE; N E A RLY H A L F H AV E H E A R D F R O M C L I N TON
Yes
62%
No
37%
Did anyone contact you personally to ask
you to caucus for a particular candidate?
49%
15%
38%
Clinton O'Malley Sanders
IF YES: For which candidate were you asked to caucus?

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Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 21 M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE D B Y A C A N D ID ATE; N E A RLY H A L F H AV E H E A R D F R O M C L I N TON Yes 62% No 37% Did anyone contact you personally to ask you to caucus for a particular candidate? 49% 15% 38% Clinton O'Malley Sanders IF YES: For which candidate were you asked to caucus?

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