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F E B R U A R Y 1 , 2 0 1 6
Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y / I O W A N S
PAGE 3
M O S T I M P ORTAN T I S S UE S: T E R R ORIS M N O T A S I M P O RTA NT T O
I O WA R E P U BL ICA NS; H E A LTH C...
PAGE 4
AT T R IB UTES V O T ERS A R E L O O K ING F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S
N O M I NE E N AT IO NALLY A N D I N I O ...
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L I K E LY R E P U BL ICA N C A U CUS G O E RS I N I O WA T H I N K E L E C TIO N
I S M O R E A B O U T L E A DE RS...
PAGE  6
N AT I ONA LLY, V O T ERS WA N T C H A N GE O V E R E X P ERI ENC E; L I K E LY
I O WA C A U C US G O E R S R E F ...
I O W A C A U C U S
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H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R D E MOCRATS
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Democrat...
PAGE 9
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R R E P U BL ICAN S
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Re...
R E P U B L I C A N S
PAGE 11
T R U M P J U M PS A H E AD O F C R U Z A S W E
N E A R T H E F I N I SH L I N E I N I O WA ; L AT E
J U M P B Y R...
PAGE 12
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls...
Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016 PAGE 13
I O WA N S S H O W G R E ATER I N T E NSI TY O F S U P P ORT F O R T R...
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 PAGE 14
M A J O RI TY O F I O WA R E P U B LIC ANS H AV E M A D E U P T H E I...
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 15
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS N O T C O N ...
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Pollsters have noted differences in their...
D E M O C R A T S
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C L I N TON ’S L E A D O V E R S A N DER S C O N TI NUES T O S H R I NK I N
I O WA
Candidate Average
Hillary Clint...
PAGE 19
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
27%
73%
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
PredictWise Chance of Winnin...
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M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS I N I O WA H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P ;
I N T E NS ITY O F S U P P ORT I...
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 21
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE ...
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Sanders’ success relies heavily on young ...
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PAGE 20 M A J Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses

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M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS I N I O WA H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P ;
I N T E NS ITY O F S U P P ORT I S S T R O NG F O R B O T H C A N DI DATE S
85% 84% 87%
14% 15% 12%
Total Clinton
supporter
Sanders
supporter
Made up Mightchange
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might
change your mind before the primary?
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016
79%
76%
15%
15%
4%
7%
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Strongly support Somewhatsupport Mightvote differently
Would you say you strongly support [candidate] or somewhat support
[candidate], or do you think you might vote differently on Caucus Day?
Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016

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PAGE 20 M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS I N I O WA H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P ; I N T E NS ITY O F S U P P ORT I S S T R O NG F O R B O T H C A N DI DATE S 85% 84% 87% 14% 15% 12% Total Clinton supporter Sanders supporter Made up Mightchange Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 79% 76% 15% 15% 4% 7% Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Strongly support Somewhatsupport Mightvote differently Would you say you strongly support [candidate] or somewhat support [candidate], or do you think you might vote differently on Caucus Day? Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016

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