Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
F E B R U A R Y 1 , 2 0 1 6
Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y / I O W A N S
PAGE 3
M O S T I M P ORTAN T I S S UE S: T E R R ORIS M N O T A S I M P O RTA NT T O
I O WA R E P U BL ICA NS; H E A LTH C...
PAGE 4
AT T R IB UTES V O T ERS A R E L O O K ING F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S
N O M I NE E N AT IO NALLY A N D I N I O ...
PAGE 5
L I K E LY R E P U BL ICA N C A U CUS G O E RS I N I O WA T H I N K E L E C TIO N
I S M O R E A B O U T L E A DE RS...
PAGE  6
N AT I ONA LLY, V O T ERS WA N T C H A N GE O V E R E X P ERI ENC E; L I K E LY
I O WA C A U C US G O E R S R E F ...
I O W A C A U C U S
PAGE 8
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R D E MOCRATS
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Democrat...
PAGE 9
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R R E P U BL ICAN S
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Re...
R E P U B L I C A N S
PAGE 11
T R U M P J U M PS A H E AD O F C R U Z A S W E
N E A R T H E F I N I SH L I N E I N I O WA ; L AT E
J U M P B Y R...
PAGE 12
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls...
Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016 PAGE 13
I O WA N S S H O W G R E ATER I N T E NSI TY O F S U P P ORT F O R T R...
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 PAGE 14
M A J O RI TY O F I O WA R E P U B LIC ANS H AV E M A D E U P T H E I...
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 15
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS N O T C O N ...
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Pollsters have noted differences in their...
D E M O C R A T S
PAGE 18
C L I N TON ’S L E A D O V E R S A N DER S C O N TI NUES T O S H R I NK I N
I O WA
Candidate Average
Hillary Clint...
PAGE 19
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
27%
73%
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
PredictWise Chance of Winnin...
PAGE 20
M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS I N I O WA H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P ;
I N T E NS ITY O F S U P P ORT I...
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 21
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE ...
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Sanders’ success relies heavily on young ...
1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor
Washington, DC 20004
121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor
New York, NY 10010
202.337.0808 | GPG.CO...
You’ve finished this document.
Download and read it offline.
Upcoming SlideShare
Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!
Next
Upcoming SlideShare
Things That Don't Matter in Your Presentation!
Next
Download to read offline and view in fullscreen.

Share

Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16 Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses

Download to read offline

Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Pollsters have noted differences in their results when they change their assumptions about voter turnout. Trump's success in particular depends onfirst-
time voters registering and showing up to caucus.A recent MonmouthUniversity poll found that when likely Iowa caucus-goers are polled, Trump leads
Cruz 30 percent to 23 percent. However, whenthepollster narrows thesample size to registered Republicans whohavea history of voting,the odds shift
in Cruz's favor and he leads Trump 28 percent to 23 percent.
Monmouth's poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers is based on an estimate of170,000 voters coming out, whichsurpasses Iowa's 122,000 record turnout in
2012. Increasing the turnout estimateto 200,000gives Trump an 11-point lead,while decreasing it to 130,000ties the two opponents at 26percent.
2. Fickle Voters
According to a Quinnipiacpoll of likely Republican caucus-goers, 28percent of those whosupport a candidatesay theycould change their mind by
election day.
3. Momentum Shifts: Rubio
In 2012, the Republican Iowacaucuses saw a lot of last-minuteshifting in the polls. Although former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was ahead going
into the caucuses, polls did pick up on former PennsylvaniaSen. Rick Santorum’s big upswing, which ultimately led him to narrowly prevail over Romney.
No candidate is climbing at the rate Santorum was right before the 2012caucuses. Butthat doesn’t rule out thepossibility of a surprise, especially given
the projected differences in outcomebased on turnout. Onepossibility -- although it looks like a slim one -- is that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio gains
momentum or benefits from higher turnoutamong thosewho prefer an “establishment” candidateover Trump or Cruz.

  • FabiolaOviedo3

    Sep. 4, 2021
  • maluisalozano1

    Aug. 8, 2021
  • irvingbulmarocanouribe

    Aug. 3, 2021
  • BillBelanger3

    Jun. 18, 2021
  • FrasMarieNol

    Jun. 4, 2021
  • WarmmieThewissaree

    May. 23, 2021
  • ZaynebAzzabi

    May. 22, 2021
  • SkSubhani7

    May. 5, 2021
  • ssuser867f8c

    Apr. 7, 2021
  • AniKumar9

    Feb. 7, 2021
  • MYRAHERVIAAMAR1

    Jan. 27, 2021
  • UtkarshPatel87

    Jan. 16, 2021
  • SOMANATHANSS

    Dec. 19, 2020
  • JulioYedra

    Sep. 28, 2020
  • CleaFernandes

    Sep. 24, 2020
  • PatrickDetchman

    Aug. 25, 2020
  • ssuser22a672

    Aug. 23, 2020
  • JessieMaeNavarraBuco

    Aug. 18, 2020
  • FernandaTorres218

    Jul. 26, 2020
  • BaharBaabaa

    Jun. 26, 2020

Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16 FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA 1. Turnout Pollsters have noted differences in their results when they change their assumptions about voter turnout. Trump's success in particular depends onfirst- time voters registering and showing up to caucus.A recent MonmouthUniversity poll found that when likely Iowa caucus-goers are polled, Trump leads Cruz 30 percent to 23 percent. However, whenthepollster narrows thesample size to registered Republicans whohavea history of voting,the odds shift in Cruz's favor and he leads Trump 28 percent to 23 percent. Monmouth's poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers is based on an estimate of170,000 voters coming out, whichsurpasses Iowa's 122,000 record turnout in 2012. Increasing the turnout estimateto 200,000gives Trump an 11-point lead,while decreasing it to 130,000ties the two opponents at 26percent. 2. Fickle Voters According to a Quinnipiacpoll of likely Republican caucus-goers, 28percent of those whosupport a candidatesay theycould change their mind by election day. 3. Momentum Shifts: Rubio In 2012, the Republican Iowacaucuses saw a lot of last-minuteshifting in the polls. Although former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was ahead going into the caucuses, polls did pick up on former PennsylvaniaSen. Rick Santorum’s big upswing, which ultimately led him to narrowly prevail over Romney. No candidate is climbing at the rate Santorum was right before the 2012caucuses. Butthat doesn’t rule out thepossibility of a surprise, especially given the projected differences in outcomebased on turnout. Onepossibility -- although it looks like a slim one -- is that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio gains momentum or benefits from higher turnoutamong thosewho prefer an “establishment” candidateover Trump or Cruz.

Views

Total views

18,559

On Slideshare

0

From embeds

0

Number of embeds

601

Actions

Downloads

34

Shares

0

Comments

0

Likes

154

×