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F E B R U A R Y 1 , 2 0 1 6
Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y / I O W A N S
PAGE 3
M O S T I M P ORTAN T I S S UE S: T E R R ORIS M N O T A S I M P O RTA NT T O
I O WA R E P U BL ICA NS; H E A LTH C...
PAGE 4
AT T R IB UTES V O T ERS A R E L O O K ING F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S
N O M I NE E N AT IO NALLY A N D I N I O ...
PAGE 5
L I K E LY R E P U BL ICA N C A U CUS G O E RS I N I O WA T H I N K E L E C TIO N
I S M O R E A B O U T L E A DE RS...
PAGE  6
N AT I ONA LLY, V O T ERS WA N T C H A N GE O V E R E X P ERI ENC E; L I K E LY
I O WA C A U C US G O E R S R E F ...
I O W A C A U C U S
PAGE 8
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R D E MOCRATS
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Democrat...
PAGE 9
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R R E P U BL ICAN S
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Re...
R E P U B L I C A N S
PAGE 11
T R U M P J U M PS A H E AD O F C R U Z A S W E
N E A R T H E F I N I SH L I N E I N I O WA ; L AT E
J U M P B Y R...
PAGE 12
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls...
Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016 PAGE 13
I O WA N S S H O W G R E ATER I N T E NSI TY O F S U P P ORT F O R T R...
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 PAGE 14
M A J O RI TY O F I O WA R E P U B LIC ANS H AV E M A D E U P T H E I...
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 15
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS N O T C O N ...
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Pollsters have noted differences in their...
D E M O C R A T S
PAGE 18
C L I N TON ’S L E A D O V E R S A N DER S C O N TI NUES T O S H R I NK I N
I O WA
Candidate Average
Hillary Clint...
PAGE 19
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
27%
73%
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
PredictWise Chance of Winnin...
PAGE 20
M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS I N I O WA H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P ;
I N T E NS ITY O F S U P P ORT I...
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 21
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE ...
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Sanders’ success relies heavily on young ...
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PAGE 11 T R U Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016 - Iowa Caucuses

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T R U M P J U M PS A H E AD O F C R U Z A S W E
N E A R T H E F I N I SH L I N E I N I O WA ; L AT E
J U M P B Y R U B I O
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016
10%
8% 8%
7%
6% 6% 5% 4% 4%
7%
7% 7%
8%
9%
14%
26%
28%
24%
7% 6%
6%
6%
9%
11%
12%
12%
17%
8%
15%
20%
23% 23% 23%
26%
28%
31%
9%
11%
13%
18%
22% 22%
13%
8% 8%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Republican Primary Preference
Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters
Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 30.7%
Ted Cruz 23.8%
Marco Rubio 17.4%
Ben Carson 7.7%
Jeb Bush 3.9%
Rand Paul 3.9%
Mike Huckabee 3.1%
John Kasich 2.6%
Chris Christie 2.3%
Carly Fiorina 2.1%
Rick Santorum 1.2%
Jim Gilmore 0.0%
HuffPost Pollster Trend
as of February 1, 2016

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PAGE 11 T R U M P J U M PS A H E AD O F C R U Z A S W E N E A R T H E F I N I SH L I N E I N I O WA ; L AT E J U M P B Y R U B I O Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016 10% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 14% 26% 28% 24% 7% 6% 6% 6% 9% 11% 12% 12% 17% 8% 15% 20% 23% 23% 23% 26% 28% 31% 9% 11% 13% 18% 22% 22% 13% 8% 8% June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2016 Republican Primary Preference Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson Candidate Average Donald Trump 30.7% Ted Cruz 23.8% Marco Rubio 17.4% Ben Carson 7.7% Jeb Bush 3.9% Rand Paul 3.9% Mike Huckabee 3.1% John Kasich 2.6% Chris Christie 2.3% Carly Fiorina 2.1% Rick Santorum 1.2% Jim Gilmore 0.0% HuffPost Pollster Trend as of February 1, 2016

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