4. DESPITE
IMPROVING
ECONOMY…
8
Unemployment
rate
9.5%
(Sept.)
7.8%
5.9%
2010
2012
2014
1,184
S&P
500
1,417
1,981
2010
2012
2014
S&P/Case-‐Shiller
U.S.
Home
Price
Index
146
(Aug.)
145
168
2010
2012
2014
Nov.
1
Nov.
5
Oct.
29
Source:
Pew
Research
Center,
October
30,
2014
5. Will
get
better
4
…PERCEPTION
ECONOMY
IS
STAYING
THE
SAME
During
the
next
twelve
months,
do
you
think
that
the
nation’s
economy
will
get
better,
get
worse,
or
stay
about
the
same?
Will
stay
the
same
Will
get
worse
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Source:
NBC/WSJ
Survey,
October
8-‐12,
2014
Note:
“Unsure/Refused”
results
are
not
shown.
45%
38%
32%
31%
27%
17%
23%
29%
26%
26%
27%
27%
28%
9%
28%
18%
21%
24%
42%
34%
24%
25%
26%
24%
20%
24%
34%
33%
49%
47%
48%
38%
42%
46%
48%
47%
48%
51%
46%
0%
Oct
2012
Dec
2012
Jun
2013
Jul
2013
Sept
2013
Oct
2013
Oct
2013
Dec
2013
Mar
2014
Apr
2014
Jun
2014
Sept
2014
Oct
2014
6. AND
AMERICANS
REMAIN
IN
A
FUNK
8
65%
61%
63%
29%
32%
30%
Dissatisfied
Oct.
2014
Oct.
2012
Oct.
2010
Satisfied
%
who
are
…
with
the
way
things
are
going
in
this
country
today
33%
44%
54%
21%
13%
8%
Poor
Oct.
2014
Oct.
2012
Oct.
2010
Excellent/good
%
saying
the
nation’s
economic
conditions
are…
Source:
Pew
Research
Center,
October
30,
2014
7. AND
MORE
SO
IN
KEY
BATTLEGROUND
STATES
8
Arkansas
22%
74%
32%
59%
Colorado
32%
62%
Florida
32%
66%
Georgia
31%
65%
Iowa
Kansas
23%
73%
North
Carolina
28%
68%
30%
68%
Virginia
Generally
going
in
the
right
direction
Seriously
off
on
the
wrong
track
Do
you
think
things
in
this
country
today
are:
Source:
2014
Exit
Polls
8. OBAMA
STILL
MORE
POPULAR
THAN
CONGRESSIONAL
PARTIES,
BUT
NOT
BY
MUCH
Favorability
6
43%
42%
Job
Approval
Source:
Exit
Poll
Data,
ABC
News/Washington
Post
Poll,
Oct
23-‐26,
2014,
CBS
News
Poll,
Oct
23-‐27,
2014
44%
29%
21%
44%
Democratic
Party
Republican
Party
Barack
Obama
9. MORE
AMERICANS
FOLLOWED
NEWS
ABOUT
EBOLA
THAN
THIS
YEAR’S
POLITICAL
CAMPAIGNS
8
Extremely/very
closely
News
about
Ebola
Source:
2014
Exit
Poll
Data
59%
51%
This
year's
political
campaign
11. SENATE:
PRE-‐ELECTION
–
RACES
IN
PLAY
Democrats:
53*
Republicans:
45
OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
Source:
CNN
10
*Two
independents
caucus
with
Democrats
12. SENATE:
POST-‐ELECTION
–
REPS
GAIN
SEVEN
SEATS
SO
FAR
Democrats:
45
Republicans:
52
OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
Ernst
(R):
52%
NH
Braley(D-‐i):
44%
Cotton
(R):
57%
Pryor(D-‐i):
39%
Tillis(R):
49%
Hagan(D-‐i):
47%
Source:
CNN
11
Gardner
(R):
50%
Udall
(D-‐i):
45%
Sullivan
(R):
49%
Begich
(D-‐i):
45%
Rounds(R):
51%
Weiland
(D):
29%
Capito
(R):
62%
Tennant
(D):
34%
Landrieu
(D):
42%
Cassidy
(R):
41%
RUN
OFF
Daines
(R):
58%
Curtis(D):
40%
Warner(D-‐i):
49%
Gillespie
(R):
48%
13. HOUSE
OVERVIEW:
OVERALL
9
SEAT
REPUBLICAN
GAIN
SO
FAR
–
WILL
PROBABLY
INCREASE
10
2012
Democrats
Republicans
Pre-‐Elec(on
193
242
Gains
/
Losses
+8
-‐8
Results
201
234
2014
Democrats
Republicans
Pre-‐Elec(on
199*
233*
Results**
174
242
Source:
CNN
**19 RACES STILL UNDECIDED *Does not add up to 435
due to vacancies
14. GUBERNATORIAL
RACES
IN
PLAY
OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
Source:
CNN
13
36
governorships
contested
15. GUBERNATORIAL
PARTY
SHIFTS
OR
AK
Wolf
(D):
55%
Corbett
(R):
45%
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
Source:
CNN
14
Rauner
(R):
51%
Quinn
(D-‐i):
46%
*Dark
Gray
indicates
too-‐close-‐to-‐call
races
Walker
(I):
48%
Parnell
(R):
47%
Hutchinson
(R):
55%
Ross
(D):
42%
Shumlin
(D-‐i):
47%
Miln
(R):
45%
Hogan
(R):
54%
Brown
(D):
45%
Baker
(R):
48%
Coakley
(D):
47%
16. INCUMBENT
SCORECARD
9
House
Members
Senators
Governors
Republicans
Democrats
Republicans
Democrats
Republicans
Democrats
Steve
Southerland
(R-‐FL)
Joe
Garcia
(D-‐FL)
Mark
Pryor
(D-‐AR)
Tom
Corbett
(R-‐PA)
Pat
Quinn
(D-‐IL)
Vance
McAllister
(R-‐
LA)
John
Barrow
(D-‐GA)
Mark
Udall
(D-‐CO)
Bill
Enyart
(D-‐IL)
Kay
Hagan
(D
–NC)
Brad
Schneider
(D-‐
IL)
Mary
Landrieu
(D
–
LA)*
Steven
Horsford
(D-‐
NV)
Carol
Shea-‐Porter
(D-‐NH)
Tim
Bishop
(D-‐NY)
Dan
Maffei
(D-‐NY)
Pete
Gallego
(D-‐TX)
Nick
Rahall
(D-‐WV)
Source:
NPR
*Forced
into
a
run-‐off
elec(on
18. “THE
ECONOMY”
IS
#1
ISSUE
AND
FAVORS
REPUBLICANS
13
Economy
Source:
2014
Exit
polls
45%
(+2)
Health
Care
25%
(+20)
Illegal
Immigra(on
14%
(+48)
Foreign
Policy
13%
(+12)
19. VOTERS
ARE
WORRIED
ABOUT
THE
DIRECTION
OF
THE
ECONOMY
Very
worried
37%
Not
at
all
worried
Not
too
worried
18%
Somewhat
worried
41%
4%
18
How
worried
are
you
about
the
direction
of
the
nation’s
economy
in
the
next
year?
78%
are
somewhat
or
very
worried
Source:
2014
Exit
polls
20. VOTERS
ARE
PESSIMISTIC
ABOUT
THE
LIVES
OF
THE
NEXT
GENERATION
OF
AMERICANS
19
Do
you
expect
life
for
the
next
generation
of
Americans
to
be:
22%
27%
48%
Better
than
life
today
About
the
same
Worse
than
life
today
Total
Dem
Rep
Better
than
life
today
22%
68%
31%
Worse
than
life
today
48%
29%
68%
About
the
same
27%
60%
39%
Source:
2014
Exit
polls
22. 17
WE’VE
BEEN
HERE
BEFORE:
OBAMA
IN
SIMILAR
SITUATION
AS
HIS
PREDECESSOR
AT
SECOND
MID-‐TERM
ELECTION
63%
63%
Job
Approval
Ra(ngs
for
Prior
Presidents
in
October
of
Second
Year
of
2nd
Term
57%
42%
37%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Clinton
(1998)
Reagan
(1986)
Eisenhower
(1958)
Obama
(2014)
G.W.
Bush
(2006)
Source:
Historical
Gallup
Poll
Data
23. OR
WERE
WE
HERE
BEFORE:
2014
LOOKS
A
LOT
LIKE
2010
18
2006
(Bush)
Source:
2006,
2010
&
2014
exit
polls
vs.
2014
(Obama)
Vote
In
Opposi(on
To
Sicng
President
Vote
In
Support
Of
Sicng
President
Job
Approval
Of
Sicng
President
33%
19%
44%
36%
22%
43%
2010
(Obama)
37%
24%
45%
24. OBAMA’S
UNPOPULARITY
DRAGS
DOWN
DEMOCRATS
36
Source:
NBC
News
Obama
Approval
Dem
%
of
vote
Difference
Who
Won
Illinois
50%
53%
3
Democrat
Michigan
50%
55%
5
Democrat
Minnesota
47%
53%
6
Democrat
Maine
47%
32%
-‐15
Republican
North
Carolina
43%
47%
4
Republican
Georgia
43%
45%
2
Republican
New
Hampshire
43%
52%
9
Democrat
Colorado
43%
45%
2
Republican
South
Carolina
42%
39%
-‐3
Republican
Virginia
40%
49%
9
Democrat
Iowa
39%
44%
5
Republican
Mississippi
38%
39%
1
Republican
Kentucky
35%
41%
6
Republican
South
Dakota
345
29%
-‐5
Republican
Arkansas
31%
39%
8
Republican
25. SENATE
VOTE:
FOR
OBAMA
OR
AGAINST
HIM
19
19%
19%
9%
10%
15%
18%
18%
8%
11%
10%
5%
19%
14%
US
Alaska
Arkansas
Georgia
Iowa
Kansas
Louisiana
Michigan
Colorado
North
Carolina
New
Hampshire
Kentucky
West
Virginia
33%
40%
31%
36%
30%
29%
43%
37%
40%
47%
34%
43%
32%
-‐14
-‐22
-‐30
-‐17
-‐17
-‐35
-‐25
-‐12
-‐18
-‐18
-‐20
-‐30
-‐42
Vote
In
Opposition
To
Obama
Vote
To
Support
Obama
Net
Source:
2014
Exit
Poll
Data
27. ALMOST
EIGHT
IN
TEN
VOTERS
SELDOM
OR
NEVER
TRUST
THE
GOVERNMENT
TO
DO
WHAT
IS
RIGHT
26
How
much
of
the
time
do
you
think
you
can
trust
the
government
in
Washington
Just
about
always,
3%
Most
of
the
time,
17%
Only
some
of
the
time,
60%
Never,
18%
to
do
what
is
right?
79%
trust
the
government
at
most
only
some
of
the
time
Source:
MSNBC
2010
Exit
Poll
Data
29. PRELIMINARY
TURNOUT
NUMBERS
ARE
WAY
DOWN
FROM
2010
AND
2012
28
64%
40.9%
58%
36.6%*
2008
2010
2012
2014
*2014 number is an estimate
Source:
Five
Thirty
Eight
30. TURNOUT
INCREASED
IN
SOME
COMPETITIVE
STATES
BUT
DECREASED
IN
OTHERS
29
Source:
Five
Thirty
Eight
34. SIGNIFICANTLY
OLDER
ELECTORATE.
SENIORS
SWUNG
TO
REPUBLICAN
PARTY
While
youth
vote
remained
Democratic,
young
voters
largely
stayed
home
27
Source:
2014
Exit
polls
Under
30
Vote
2008
(18%)
2010
(11%)
2012
(19%)
2014
(13%)
Democratic
63%
57%
60%
54%
Republican
34%
40%
37%
43%
Spread
D+29
D+17
D+23
D+11
65+
Vote
2008
(15%)
2010
(23%)
2012
(16%)
2014
(22%)
Democratic
49%
38%
44%
42%
Republican
48%
59%
56%
57%
Spread
D+1
R+21
R+12
R+15
Large
senior
vote
went
Republican
35. Source:
2014
Exit
polls
32
MINORITY
TURNOUT
DOWN
AS
WELL
Race
Breakdown
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
White
77%
79%
74%
78%
72%
75%
Black
12%
10%
13%
10%
13%
12%
Hispanic/
LaLno
8%
8%
8%
8%
10%
8%
LaLno
House
Vote
62%
DemocraLc
36%
Republican
36. TEA
PARTY
PLAYS
ROLE
IN
ELECTIONS
<33
Source:
2014
Exit
polls
32
Overall
U.S.
Tea
Party
Support:
33%
New
Hampshire
30%*
California
28%
Arkansas
33%*
33+
South
Carolina
41%*
Louisiana
37%*
Iowa
36%*
Mississippi
36%*
Georgia
36%*
New
York
35%
Kansas
33%*
Kentucky
33%*
*Denotes
2014
Senate
Race
Exit
Poll
Data
40. HOT
ISSUES
FOR
NEW
CONGRESS
2004
2008
2012
2014
Government
should
do
more
to
solve
problems
46%
51%
43%
41%
Government
is
doing
too
many
things
better
left
to
businesses
and
individuals
49%
43%
51%
54%
Source:
2014
Exit
Polls
39
Views
of
Government
41. HOT
ISSUES
FOR
NEW
CONGRESS
Affordable
Care
Act
Do
you
think
the
2010
Federal
Health
Care
Law:
Source:
2014
Exit
Polls
40
25%
21%
48%
Did
not
go
far
enough
Was
about
right
Went
too
far
42. HOT
ISSUES
FOR
NEW
CONGRESS
Climate
Change
Do
you
think
climate
change,
also
known
as
global
warming,
is
a
serious
problem?
Source:
2014
Exit
Polls
41
40%
Yes
58%
No
40%
DEM
REP
Yes
70%
29%
No
14%
84%
43. HOT
ISSUES
FOR
NEW
CONGRESS
2012
2014
Offered
a
chance
to
apply
for
legal
status
65%
57%
Deported
to
the
country
they
came
from
28%
39%
ImmigraLon
Should
most
illegal
immigrants
working
in
the
United
States
be:
Source:
2014
Exit
Polls
42
44. HOT
ISSUES
FOR
NEW
CONGRESS
AborLon
Which
comes
closest
to
your
position?
Abortion
should
be…
Source:
2014
Exit
Polls
43
23%
29%
26%
17%
Legal
in
all
cases
Legal
in
most
cases
Illegal
in
most
cases
Illegal
in
all
cases
52%
46. LOOKING
FORWARD:
WHAT’S
AT
STAKE
IN
2016
45
Democrats
will
afempt
to
retain
control
of
the
White
House.
Candidates
will
seek
to
become
the
45th
president
of
the
United
States.
All
435
seats
will
be
up
for
election
once
again.
Senate:
House:
Republicans
Democrats
52*
45*
+7
-‐
34
seats
will
be
contested.
Republicans
will
be
defending
24
of
those
seats
while
Democrats
will
be
defending
10.
Presidency:
*Does
not
add
up
to
100
because
three
races
are
still
undecided
47. 40
For
more
informa(on,
please
contact:
Jason
Boxt
(jboxt@gpg.com)