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2014: 
Post 
Election 
Analysis
ELECTION 
OVERVIEW 
2 
v Context 
v The 
Results: 
What 
happened? 
v The 
Reasons: 
Why 
it 
happened? 
v The 
Future: 
What 
does 
it 
mean 
going 
forward?
Mood 
Of 
The 
Country
DESPITE 
IMPROVING 
ECONOMY… 
8 
Unemployment 
rate 
9.5% 
(Sept.) 
7.8% 
5.9% 
2010 
2012 
2014 
1,184 
S&P 
500 
1,417 
1,981 
2010 
2012 
2014 
S&P/Case-­‐Shiller 
U.S. 
Home 
Price 
Index 
146 
(Aug.) 
145 
168 
2010 
2012 
2014 
Nov. 
1 
Nov. 
5 
Oct. 
29 
Source: 
Pew 
Research 
Center, 
October 
30, 
2014
Will 
get 
better 
4 
…PERCEPTION 
ECONOMY 
IS 
STAYING 
THE 
SAME 
During 
the 
next 
twelve 
months, 
do 
you 
think 
that 
the 
nation’s 
economy 
will 
get 
better, 
get 
worse, 
or 
stay 
about 
the 
same? 
Will 
stay 
the 
same 
Will 
get 
worse 
60% 
50% 
40% 
30% 
20% 
10% 
Source: 
NBC/WSJ 
Survey, 
October 
8-­‐12, 
2014 
Note: 
“Unsure/Refused” 
results 
are 
not 
shown. 
45% 
38% 
32% 
31% 
27% 
17% 
23% 
29% 
26% 
26% 
27% 
27% 
28% 
9% 
28% 
18% 
21% 
24% 
42% 
34% 
24% 
25% 
26% 
24% 
20% 
24% 
34% 
33% 
49% 
47% 
48% 
38% 
42% 
46% 
48% 
47% 
48% 
51% 
46% 
0% 
Oct 
2012 
Dec 
2012 
Jun 
2013 
Jul 
2013 
Sept 
2013 
Oct 
2013 
Oct 
2013 
Dec 
2013 
Mar 
2014 
Apr 
2014 
Jun 
2014 
Sept 
2014 
Oct 
2014
AND 
AMERICANS 
REMAIN 
IN 
A 
FUNK 
8 
65% 
61% 
63% 
29% 
32% 
30% 
Dissatisfied 
Oct. 
2014 
Oct. 
2012 
Oct. 
2010 
Satisfied 
% 
who 
are 
… 
with 
the 
way 
things 
are 
going 
in 
this 
country 
today 
33% 
44% 
54% 
21% 
13% 
8% 
Poor 
Oct. 
2014 
Oct. 
2012 
Oct. 
2010 
Excellent/good 
% 
saying 
the 
nation’s 
economic 
conditions 
are… 
Source: 
Pew 
Research 
Center, 
October 
30, 
2014
AND 
MORE 
SO 
IN 
KEY 
BATTLEGROUND 
STATES 
8 
Arkansas 
22% 
74% 
32% 
59% 
Colorado 
32% 
62% 
Florida 
32% 
66% 
Georgia 
31% 
65% 
Iowa 
Kansas 
23% 
73% 
North 
Carolina 
28% 
68% 
30% 
68% 
Virginia 
Generally 
going 
in 
the 
right 
direction 
Seriously 
off 
on 
the 
wrong 
track 
Do 
you 
think 
things 
in 
this 
country 
today 
are: 
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
Polls
OBAMA 
STILL 
MORE 
POPULAR 
THAN 
CONGRESSIONAL 
PARTIES, 
BUT 
NOT 
BY 
MUCH 
Favorability 
6 
43% 
42% 
Job 
Approval 
Source: 
Exit 
Poll 
Data, 
ABC 
News/Washington 
Post 
Poll, 
Oct 
23-­‐26, 
2014, 
CBS 
News 
Poll, 
Oct 
23-­‐27, 
2014 
44% 
29% 
21% 
44% 
Democratic 
Party 
Republican 
Party 
Barack 
Obama
MORE 
AMERICANS 
FOLLOWED 
NEWS 
ABOUT 
EBOLA 
THAN 
THIS 
YEAR’S 
POLITICAL 
CAMPAIGNS 
8 
Extremely/very 
closely 
News 
about 
Ebola 
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
Poll 
Data 
59% 
51% 
This 
year's 
political 
campaign
The 
Results: 
What 
Happened
SENATE: 
PRE-­‐ELECTION 
– 
RACES 
IN 
PLAY 
Democrats: 
53* 
Republicans: 
45 
OR 
AK 
KY 
NM 
MN 
CO 
GA 
NC 
Source: 
CNN 
10 
*Two 
independents 
caucus 
with 
Democrats
SENATE: 
POST-­‐ELECTION 
– 
REPS 
GAIN 
SEVEN 
SEATS 
SO 
FAR 
Democrats: 
45 
Republicans: 
52 
OR 
AK 
KY 
NM 
MN 
CO 
GA 
NC 
Ernst 
(R): 
52% 
NH 
Braley(D-­‐i): 
44% 
Cotton 
(R): 
57% 
Pryor(D-­‐i): 
39% 
Tillis(R): 
49% 
Hagan(D-­‐i): 
47% 
Source: 
CNN 
11 
Gardner 
(R): 
50% 
Udall 
(D-­‐i): 
45% 
Sullivan 
(R): 
49% 
Begich 
(D-­‐i): 
45% 
Rounds(R): 
51% 
Weiland 
(D): 
29% 
Capito 
(R): 
62% 
Tennant 
(D): 
34% 
Landrieu 
(D): 
42% 
Cassidy 
(R): 
41% 
RUN 
OFF 
Daines 
(R): 
58% 
Curtis(D): 
40% 
Warner(D-­‐i): 
49% 
Gillespie 
(R): 
48%
HOUSE 
OVERVIEW: 
OVERALL 
9 
SEAT 
REPUBLICAN 
GAIN 
SO 
FAR 
– 
WILL 
PROBABLY 
INCREASE 
10 
2012 
Democrats 
Republicans 
Pre-­‐Elec(on 
193 
242 
Gains 
/ 
Losses 
+8 
-­‐8 
Results 
201 
234 
2014 
Democrats 
Republicans 
Pre-­‐Elec(on 
199* 
233* 
Results** 
174 
242 
Source: 
CNN 
**19 RACES STILL UNDECIDED *Does not add up to 435 
due to vacancies
GUBERNATORIAL 
RACES 
IN 
PLAY 
OR 
AK 
KY 
NM 
MN 
CO 
GA 
NC 
Source: 
CNN 
13 
36 
governorships 
contested
GUBERNATORIAL 
PARTY 
SHIFTS 
OR 
AK 
Wolf 
(D): 
55% 
Corbett 
(R): 
45% 
KY 
NM 
MN 
CO 
GA 
NC 
Source: 
CNN 
14 
Rauner 
(R): 
51% 
Quinn 
(D-­‐i): 
46% 
*Dark 
Gray 
indicates 
too-­‐close-­‐to-­‐call 
races 
Walker 
(I): 
48% 
Parnell 
(R): 
47% 
Hutchinson 
(R): 
55% 
Ross 
(D): 
42% 
Shumlin 
(D-­‐i): 
47% 
Miln 
(R): 
45% 
Hogan 
(R): 
54% 
Brown 
(D): 
45% 
Baker 
(R): 
48% 
Coakley 
(D): 
47%
INCUMBENT 
SCORECARD 
9 
House 
Members 
Senators 
Governors 
Republicans 
Democrats 
Republicans 
Democrats 
Republicans 
Democrats 
Steve 
Southerland 
(R-­‐FL) 
Joe 
Garcia 
(D-­‐FL) 
Mark 
Pryor 
(D-­‐AR) 
Tom 
Corbett 
(R-­‐PA) 
Pat 
Quinn 
(D-­‐IL) 
Vance 
McAllister 
(R-­‐ 
LA) 
John 
Barrow 
(D-­‐GA) 
Mark 
Udall 
(D-­‐CO) 
Bill 
Enyart 
(D-­‐IL) 
Kay 
Hagan 
(D 
–NC) 
Brad 
Schneider 
(D-­‐ 
IL) 
Mary 
Landrieu 
(D 
– 
LA)* 
Steven 
Horsford 
(D-­‐ 
NV) 
Carol 
Shea-­‐Porter 
(D-­‐NH) 
Tim 
Bishop 
(D-­‐NY) 
Dan 
Maffei 
(D-­‐NY) 
Pete 
Gallego 
(D-­‐TX) 
Nick 
Rahall 
(D-­‐WV) 
Source: 
NPR 
*Forced 
into 
a 
run-­‐off 
elec(on
The 
Reasons: 
Why 
it 
Happened
“THE 
ECONOMY” 
IS 
#1 
ISSUE 
AND 
FAVORS 
REPUBLICANS 
13 
Economy 
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
polls 
45% 
(+2) 
Health 
Care 
25% 
(+20) 
Illegal 
Immigra(on 
14% 
(+48) 
Foreign 
Policy 
13% 
(+12)
VOTERS 
ARE 
WORRIED 
ABOUT 
THE 
DIRECTION 
OF 
THE 
ECONOMY 
Very 
worried 
37% 
Not 
at 
all 
worried 
Not 
too 
worried 
18% 
Somewhat 
worried 
41% 
4% 
18 
How 
worried 
are 
you 
about 
the 
direction 
of 
the 
nation’s 
economy 
in 
the 
next 
year? 
78% 
are 
somewhat 
or 
very 
worried 
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
polls
VOTERS 
ARE 
PESSIMISTIC 
ABOUT 
THE 
LIVES 
OF 
THE 
NEXT 
GENERATION 
OF 
AMERICANS 
19 
Do 
you 
expect 
life 
for 
the 
next 
generation 
of 
Americans 
to 
be: 
22% 
27% 
48% 
Better 
than 
life 
today 
About 
the 
same 
Worse 
than 
life 
today 
Total 
Dem 
Rep 
Better 
than 
life 
today 
22% 
68% 
31% 
Worse 
than 
life 
today 
48% 
29% 
68% 
About 
the 
same 
27% 
60% 
39% 
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
polls
Obama
17 
WE’VE 
BEEN 
HERE 
BEFORE: 
OBAMA 
IN 
SIMILAR 
SITUATION 
AS 
HIS 
PREDECESSOR 
AT 
SECOND 
MID-­‐TERM 
ELECTION 
63% 
63% 
Job 
Approval 
Ra(ngs 
for 
Prior 
Presidents 
in 
October 
of 
Second 
Year 
of 
2nd 
Term 
57% 
42% 
37% 
70% 
60% 
50% 
40% 
30% 
20% 
10% 
0% 
Clinton 
(1998) 
Reagan 
(1986) 
Eisenhower 
(1958) 
Obama 
(2014) 
G.W. 
Bush 
(2006) 
Source: 
Historical 
Gallup 
Poll 
Data
OR 
WERE 
WE 
HERE 
BEFORE: 
2014 
LOOKS 
A 
LOT 
LIKE 
2010 
18 
2006 
(Bush) 
Source: 
2006, 
2010 
& 
2014 
exit 
polls 
vs. 
2014 
(Obama) 
Vote 
In 
Opposi(on 
To 
Sicng 
President 
Vote 
In 
Support 
Of 
Sicng 
President 
Job 
Approval 
Of 
Sicng 
President 
33% 
19% 
44% 
36% 
22% 
43% 
2010 
(Obama) 
37% 
24% 
45%
OBAMA’S 
UNPOPULARITY 
DRAGS 
DOWN 
DEMOCRATS 
36 
Source: 
NBC 
News 
Obama 
Approval 
Dem 
% 
of 
vote 
Difference 
Who 
Won 
Illinois 
50% 
53% 
3 
Democrat 
Michigan 
50% 
55% 
5 
Democrat 
Minnesota 
47% 
53% 
6 
Democrat 
Maine 
47% 
32% 
-­‐15 
Republican 
North 
Carolina 
43% 
47% 
4 
Republican 
Georgia 
43% 
45% 
2 
Republican 
New 
Hampshire 
43% 
52% 
9 
Democrat 
Colorado 
43% 
45% 
2 
Republican 
South 
Carolina 
42% 
39% 
-­‐3 
Republican 
Virginia 
40% 
49% 
9 
Democrat 
Iowa 
39% 
44% 
5 
Republican 
Mississippi 
38% 
39% 
1 
Republican 
Kentucky 
35% 
41% 
6 
Republican 
South 
Dakota 
345 
29% 
-­‐5 
Republican 
Arkansas 
31% 
39% 
8 
Republican
SENATE 
VOTE: 
FOR 
OBAMA 
OR 
AGAINST 
HIM 
19 
19% 
19% 
9% 
10% 
15% 
18% 
18% 
8% 
11% 
10% 
5% 
19% 
14% 
US 
Alaska 
Arkansas 
Georgia 
Iowa 
Kansas 
Louisiana 
Michigan 
Colorado 
North 
Carolina 
New 
Hampshire 
Kentucky 
West 
Virginia 
33% 
40% 
31% 
36% 
30% 
29% 
43% 
37% 
40% 
47% 
34% 
43% 
32% 
-­‐14 
-­‐22 
-­‐30 
-­‐17 
-­‐17 
-­‐35 
-­‐25 
-­‐12 
-­‐18 
-­‐18 
-­‐20 
-­‐30 
-­‐42 
Vote 
In 
Opposition 
To 
Obama 
Vote 
To 
Support 
Obama 
Net 
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
Poll 
Data
Dissatisfaction
ALMOST 
EIGHT 
IN 
TEN 
VOTERS 
SELDOM 
OR 
NEVER 
TRUST 
THE 
GOVERNMENT 
TO 
DO 
WHAT 
IS 
RIGHT 
26 
How 
much 
of 
the 
time 
do 
you 
think 
you 
can 
trust 
the 
government 
in 
Washington 
Just 
about 
always, 
3% 
Most 
of 
the 
time, 
17% 
Only 
some 
of 
the 
time, 
60% 
Never, 
18% 
to 
do 
what 
is 
right? 
79% 
trust 
the 
government 
at 
most 
only 
some 
of 
the 
time 
Source: 
MSNBC 
2010 
Exit 
Poll 
Data
Turn 
Out
PRELIMINARY 
TURNOUT 
NUMBERS 
ARE 
WAY 
DOWN 
FROM 
2010 
AND 
2012 
28 
64% 
40.9% 
58% 
36.6%* 
2008 
2010 
2012 
2014 
*2014 number is an estimate 
Source: 
Five 
Thirty 
Eight
TURNOUT 
INCREASED 
IN 
SOME 
COMPETITIVE 
STATES 
BUT 
DECREASED 
IN 
OTHERS 
29 
Source: 
Five 
Thirty 
Eight
Electorate
ELECTORATE 
MORE 
CONSERVATIVE 
AND 
LESS 
MODERATE 
THAN 
ELECTIONS 
IN 
RECENT 
HISTORY 
23 
49% 
53% 
51% 
50% 
47% 
48% 
45% 
46% 
49% 
46% 
Source: 
TargetPointConsul(ng.com 
– 
Exit 
Poll 
Data, 
November 
3, 
2010 
47% 
50% 
50% 
49% 
45% 
48% 
44% 
39% 
41% 
40% 
32% 
30% 
32% 
28% 
36% 
35% 
33% 
34% 
30% 
36% 
34% 
31% 
29% 
34% 
33% 
32% 
34% 
41% 
35% 
37% 
20% 
17% 
17% 
18% 
17% 
17% 
18% 
19% 
21% 
18% 
20% 
19% 
20% 
17% 
21% 
20% 
22% 
20% 
25% 
23% 
Moderates 
Conservatives 
Liberals
SLIGHT 
REPUBLICAN 
ADVANTAGE 
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
Polls 
25 
2004 
2006 
2008 
2010 
2012 
2014 
Democrat 
37% 
38% 
39% 
36% 
38% 
35% 
Independent 
26% 
26% 
29% 
28% 
29% 
28% 
Republican 
37% 
36% 
32% 
36% 
32% 
36% 
Party 
Split 
Even 
D+2 
D+7 
Even 
D+6 
R+1
SIGNIFICANTLY 
OLDER 
ELECTORATE. 
SENIORS 
SWUNG 
TO 
REPUBLICAN 
PARTY 
While 
youth 
vote 
remained 
Democratic, 
young 
voters 
largely 
stayed 
home 
27 
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
polls 
Under 
30 
Vote 
2008 
(18%) 
2010 
(11%) 
2012 
(19%) 
2014 
(13%) 
Democratic 
63% 
57% 
60% 
54% 
Republican 
34% 
40% 
37% 
43% 
Spread 
D+29 
D+17 
D+23 
D+11 
65+ 
Vote 
2008 
(15%) 
2010 
(23%) 
2012 
(16%) 
2014 
(22%) 
Democratic 
49% 
38% 
44% 
42% 
Republican 
48% 
59% 
56% 
57% 
Spread 
D+1 
R+21 
R+12 
R+15 
Large 
senior 
vote 
went 
Republican
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
polls 
32 
MINORITY 
TURNOUT 
DOWN 
AS 
WELL 
Race 
Breakdown 
2004 
2006 
2008 
2010 
2012 
2014 
White 
77% 
79% 
74% 
78% 
72% 
75% 
Black 
12% 
10% 
13% 
10% 
13% 
12% 
Hispanic/ 
LaLno 
8% 
8% 
8% 
8% 
10% 
8% 
LaLno 
House 
Vote 
62% 
DemocraLc 
36% 
Republican
TEA 
PARTY 
PLAYS 
ROLE 
IN 
ELECTIONS 
<33 
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
polls 
32 
Overall 
U.S. 
Tea 
Party 
Support: 
33% 
New 
Hampshire 
30%* 
California 
28% 
Arkansas 
33%* 
33+ 
South 
Carolina 
41%* 
Louisiana 
37%* 
Iowa 
36%* 
Mississippi 
36%* 
Georgia 
36%* 
New 
York 
35% 
Kansas 
33%* 
Kentucky 
33%* 
*Denotes 
2014 
Senate 
Race 
Exit 
Poll 
Data
Electoral 
Map
ELECTORAL 
MAP 
FAVORED 
REPUBLICANS 
8 
2012 
Presidential 
results 
2014 
Senate 
map 
had 
many 
Democrats 
defending 
seats 
in 
“red” 
states
What 
The 
Public 
Wants?
HOT 
ISSUES 
FOR 
NEW 
CONGRESS 
2004 
2008 
2012 
2014 
Government 
should 
do 
more 
to 
solve 
problems 
46% 
51% 
43% 
41% 
Government 
is 
doing 
too 
many 
things 
better 
left 
to 
businesses 
and 
individuals 
49% 
43% 
51% 
54% 
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
Polls 
39 
Views 
of 
Government
HOT 
ISSUES 
FOR 
NEW 
CONGRESS 
Affordable 
Care 
Act 
Do 
you 
think 
the 
2010 
Federal 
Health 
Care 
Law: 
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
Polls 
40 
25% 
21% 
48% 
Did 
not 
go 
far 
enough 
Was 
about 
right 
Went 
too 
far
HOT 
ISSUES 
FOR 
NEW 
CONGRESS 
Climate 
Change 
Do 
you 
think 
climate 
change, 
also 
known 
as 
global 
warming, 
is 
a 
serious 
problem? 
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
Polls 
41 
40% 
Yes 
58% 
No 
40% 
DEM 
REP 
Yes 
70% 
29% 
No 
14% 
84%
HOT 
ISSUES 
FOR 
NEW 
CONGRESS 
2012 
2014 
Offered 
a 
chance 
to 
apply 
for 
legal 
status 
65% 
57% 
Deported 
to 
the 
country 
they 
came 
from 
28% 
39% 
ImmigraLon 
Should 
most 
illegal 
immigrants 
working 
in 
the 
United 
States 
be: 
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
Polls 
42
HOT 
ISSUES 
FOR 
NEW 
CONGRESS 
AborLon 
Which 
comes 
closest 
to 
your 
position? 
Abortion 
should 
be… 
Source: 
2014 
Exit 
Polls 
43 
23% 
29% 
26% 
17% 
Legal 
in 
all 
cases 
Legal 
in 
most 
cases 
Illegal 
in 
most 
cases 
Illegal 
in 
all 
cases 
52%
Looking 
Forward 
to 
2016
LOOKING 
FORWARD: 
WHAT’S 
AT 
STAKE 
IN 
2016 
45 
Democrats 
will 
afempt 
to 
retain 
control 
of 
the 
White 
House. 
Candidates 
will 
seek 
to 
become 
the 
45th 
president 
of 
the 
United 
States. 
All 
435 
seats 
will 
be 
up 
for 
election 
once 
again. 
Senate: 
House: 
Republicans 
Democrats 
52* 
45* 
+7 
-­‐ 
34 
seats 
will 
be 
contested. 
Republicans 
will 
be 
defending 
24 
of 
those 
seats 
while 
Democrats 
will 
be 
defending 
10. 
Presidency: 
*Does 
not 
add 
up 
to 
100 
because 
three 
races 
are 
still 
undecided
40 
For 
more 
informa(on, 
please 
contact: 
Jason 
Boxt 
(jboxt@gpg.com)

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2014: Post Election Analysis

  • 2. ELECTION OVERVIEW 2 v Context v The Results: What happened? v The Reasons: Why it happened? v The Future: What does it mean going forward?
  • 3. Mood Of The Country
  • 4. DESPITE IMPROVING ECONOMY… 8 Unemployment rate 9.5% (Sept.) 7.8% 5.9% 2010 2012 2014 1,184 S&P 500 1,417 1,981 2010 2012 2014 S&P/Case-­‐Shiller U.S. Home Price Index 146 (Aug.) 145 168 2010 2012 2014 Nov. 1 Nov. 5 Oct. 29 Source: Pew Research Center, October 30, 2014
  • 5. Will get better 4 …PERCEPTION ECONOMY IS STAYING THE SAME During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Will stay the same Will get worse 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, October 8-­‐12, 2014 Note: “Unsure/Refused” results are not shown. 45% 38% 32% 31% 27% 17% 23% 29% 26% 26% 27% 27% 28% 9% 28% 18% 21% 24% 42% 34% 24% 25% 26% 24% 20% 24% 34% 33% 49% 47% 48% 38% 42% 46% 48% 47% 48% 51% 46% 0% Oct 2012 Dec 2012 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Sept 2013 Oct 2013 Oct 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 Jun 2014 Sept 2014 Oct 2014
  • 6. AND AMERICANS REMAIN IN A FUNK 8 65% 61% 63% 29% 32% 30% Dissatisfied Oct. 2014 Oct. 2012 Oct. 2010 Satisfied % who are … with the way things are going in this country today 33% 44% 54% 21% 13% 8% Poor Oct. 2014 Oct. 2012 Oct. 2010 Excellent/good % saying the nation’s economic conditions are… Source: Pew Research Center, October 30, 2014
  • 7. AND MORE SO IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES 8 Arkansas 22% 74% 32% 59% Colorado 32% 62% Florida 32% 66% Georgia 31% 65% Iowa Kansas 23% 73% North Carolina 28% 68% 30% 68% Virginia Generally going in the right direction Seriously off on the wrong track Do you think things in this country today are: Source: 2014 Exit Polls
  • 8. OBAMA STILL MORE POPULAR THAN CONGRESSIONAL PARTIES, BUT NOT BY MUCH Favorability 6 43% 42% Job Approval Source: Exit Poll Data, ABC News/Washington Post Poll, Oct 23-­‐26, 2014, CBS News Poll, Oct 23-­‐27, 2014 44% 29% 21% 44% Democratic Party Republican Party Barack Obama
  • 9. MORE AMERICANS FOLLOWED NEWS ABOUT EBOLA THAN THIS YEAR’S POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS 8 Extremely/very closely News about Ebola Source: 2014 Exit Poll Data 59% 51% This year's political campaign
  • 10. The Results: What Happened
  • 11. SENATE: PRE-­‐ELECTION – RACES IN PLAY Democrats: 53* Republicans: 45 OR AK KY NM MN CO GA NC Source: CNN 10 *Two independents caucus with Democrats
  • 12. SENATE: POST-­‐ELECTION – REPS GAIN SEVEN SEATS SO FAR Democrats: 45 Republicans: 52 OR AK KY NM MN CO GA NC Ernst (R): 52% NH Braley(D-­‐i): 44% Cotton (R): 57% Pryor(D-­‐i): 39% Tillis(R): 49% Hagan(D-­‐i): 47% Source: CNN 11 Gardner (R): 50% Udall (D-­‐i): 45% Sullivan (R): 49% Begich (D-­‐i): 45% Rounds(R): 51% Weiland (D): 29% Capito (R): 62% Tennant (D): 34% Landrieu (D): 42% Cassidy (R): 41% RUN OFF Daines (R): 58% Curtis(D): 40% Warner(D-­‐i): 49% Gillespie (R): 48%
  • 13. HOUSE OVERVIEW: OVERALL 9 SEAT REPUBLICAN GAIN SO FAR – WILL PROBABLY INCREASE 10 2012 Democrats Republicans Pre-­‐Elec(on 193 242 Gains / Losses +8 -­‐8 Results 201 234 2014 Democrats Republicans Pre-­‐Elec(on 199* 233* Results** 174 242 Source: CNN **19 RACES STILL UNDECIDED *Does not add up to 435 due to vacancies
  • 14. GUBERNATORIAL RACES IN PLAY OR AK KY NM MN CO GA NC Source: CNN 13 36 governorships contested
  • 15. GUBERNATORIAL PARTY SHIFTS OR AK Wolf (D): 55% Corbett (R): 45% KY NM MN CO GA NC Source: CNN 14 Rauner (R): 51% Quinn (D-­‐i): 46% *Dark Gray indicates too-­‐close-­‐to-­‐call races Walker (I): 48% Parnell (R): 47% Hutchinson (R): 55% Ross (D): 42% Shumlin (D-­‐i): 47% Miln (R): 45% Hogan (R): 54% Brown (D): 45% Baker (R): 48% Coakley (D): 47%
  • 16. INCUMBENT SCORECARD 9 House Members Senators Governors Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats Steve Southerland (R-­‐FL) Joe Garcia (D-­‐FL) Mark Pryor (D-­‐AR) Tom Corbett (R-­‐PA) Pat Quinn (D-­‐IL) Vance McAllister (R-­‐ LA) John Barrow (D-­‐GA) Mark Udall (D-­‐CO) Bill Enyart (D-­‐IL) Kay Hagan (D –NC) Brad Schneider (D-­‐ IL) Mary Landrieu (D – LA)* Steven Horsford (D-­‐ NV) Carol Shea-­‐Porter (D-­‐NH) Tim Bishop (D-­‐NY) Dan Maffei (D-­‐NY) Pete Gallego (D-­‐TX) Nick Rahall (D-­‐WV) Source: NPR *Forced into a run-­‐off elec(on
  • 17. The Reasons: Why it Happened
  • 18. “THE ECONOMY” IS #1 ISSUE AND FAVORS REPUBLICANS 13 Economy Source: 2014 Exit polls 45% (+2) Health Care 25% (+20) Illegal Immigra(on 14% (+48) Foreign Policy 13% (+12)
  • 19. VOTERS ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF THE ECONOMY Very worried 37% Not at all worried Not too worried 18% Somewhat worried 41% 4% 18 How worried are you about the direction of the nation’s economy in the next year? 78% are somewhat or very worried Source: 2014 Exit polls
  • 20. VOTERS ARE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE LIVES OF THE NEXT GENERATION OF AMERICANS 19 Do you expect life for the next generation of Americans to be: 22% 27% 48% Better than life today About the same Worse than life today Total Dem Rep Better than life today 22% 68% 31% Worse than life today 48% 29% 68% About the same 27% 60% 39% Source: 2014 Exit polls
  • 21. Obama
  • 22. 17 WE’VE BEEN HERE BEFORE: OBAMA IN SIMILAR SITUATION AS HIS PREDECESSOR AT SECOND MID-­‐TERM ELECTION 63% 63% Job Approval Ra(ngs for Prior Presidents in October of Second Year of 2nd Term 57% 42% 37% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Clinton (1998) Reagan (1986) Eisenhower (1958) Obama (2014) G.W. Bush (2006) Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  • 23. OR WERE WE HERE BEFORE: 2014 LOOKS A LOT LIKE 2010 18 2006 (Bush) Source: 2006, 2010 & 2014 exit polls vs. 2014 (Obama) Vote In Opposi(on To Sicng President Vote In Support Of Sicng President Job Approval Of Sicng President 33% 19% 44% 36% 22% 43% 2010 (Obama) 37% 24% 45%
  • 24. OBAMA’S UNPOPULARITY DRAGS DOWN DEMOCRATS 36 Source: NBC News Obama Approval Dem % of vote Difference Who Won Illinois 50% 53% 3 Democrat Michigan 50% 55% 5 Democrat Minnesota 47% 53% 6 Democrat Maine 47% 32% -­‐15 Republican North Carolina 43% 47% 4 Republican Georgia 43% 45% 2 Republican New Hampshire 43% 52% 9 Democrat Colorado 43% 45% 2 Republican South Carolina 42% 39% -­‐3 Republican Virginia 40% 49% 9 Democrat Iowa 39% 44% 5 Republican Mississippi 38% 39% 1 Republican Kentucky 35% 41% 6 Republican South Dakota 345 29% -­‐5 Republican Arkansas 31% 39% 8 Republican
  • 25. SENATE VOTE: FOR OBAMA OR AGAINST HIM 19 19% 19% 9% 10% 15% 18% 18% 8% 11% 10% 5% 19% 14% US Alaska Arkansas Georgia Iowa Kansas Louisiana Michigan Colorado North Carolina New Hampshire Kentucky West Virginia 33% 40% 31% 36% 30% 29% 43% 37% 40% 47% 34% 43% 32% -­‐14 -­‐22 -­‐30 -­‐17 -­‐17 -­‐35 -­‐25 -­‐12 -­‐18 -­‐18 -­‐20 -­‐30 -­‐42 Vote In Opposition To Obama Vote To Support Obama Net Source: 2014 Exit Poll Data
  • 27. ALMOST EIGHT IN TEN VOTERS SELDOM OR NEVER TRUST THE GOVERNMENT TO DO WHAT IS RIGHT 26 How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington Just about always, 3% Most of the time, 17% Only some of the time, 60% Never, 18% to do what is right? 79% trust the government at most only some of the time Source: MSNBC 2010 Exit Poll Data
  • 29. PRELIMINARY TURNOUT NUMBERS ARE WAY DOWN FROM 2010 AND 2012 28 64% 40.9% 58% 36.6%* 2008 2010 2012 2014 *2014 number is an estimate Source: Five Thirty Eight
  • 30. TURNOUT INCREASED IN SOME COMPETITIVE STATES BUT DECREASED IN OTHERS 29 Source: Five Thirty Eight
  • 32. ELECTORATE MORE CONSERVATIVE AND LESS MODERATE THAN ELECTIONS IN RECENT HISTORY 23 49% 53% 51% 50% 47% 48% 45% 46% 49% 46% Source: TargetPointConsul(ng.com – Exit Poll Data, November 3, 2010 47% 50% 50% 49% 45% 48% 44% 39% 41% 40% 32% 30% 32% 28% 36% 35% 33% 34% 30% 36% 34% 31% 29% 34% 33% 32% 34% 41% 35% 37% 20% 17% 17% 18% 17% 17% 18% 19% 21% 18% 20% 19% 20% 17% 21% 20% 22% 20% 25% 23% Moderates Conservatives Liberals
  • 33. SLIGHT REPUBLICAN ADVANTAGE Source: 2014 Exit Polls 25 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Democrat 37% 38% 39% 36% 38% 35% Independent 26% 26% 29% 28% 29% 28% Republican 37% 36% 32% 36% 32% 36% Party Split Even D+2 D+7 Even D+6 R+1
  • 34. SIGNIFICANTLY OLDER ELECTORATE. SENIORS SWUNG TO REPUBLICAN PARTY While youth vote remained Democratic, young voters largely stayed home 27 Source: 2014 Exit polls Under 30 Vote 2008 (18%) 2010 (11%) 2012 (19%) 2014 (13%) Democratic 63% 57% 60% 54% Republican 34% 40% 37% 43% Spread D+29 D+17 D+23 D+11 65+ Vote 2008 (15%) 2010 (23%) 2012 (16%) 2014 (22%) Democratic 49% 38% 44% 42% Republican 48% 59% 56% 57% Spread D+1 R+21 R+12 R+15 Large senior vote went Republican
  • 35. Source: 2014 Exit polls 32 MINORITY TURNOUT DOWN AS WELL Race Breakdown 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 White 77% 79% 74% 78% 72% 75% Black 12% 10% 13% 10% 13% 12% Hispanic/ LaLno 8% 8% 8% 8% 10% 8% LaLno House Vote 62% DemocraLc 36% Republican
  • 36. TEA PARTY PLAYS ROLE IN ELECTIONS <33 Source: 2014 Exit polls 32 Overall U.S. Tea Party Support: 33% New Hampshire 30%* California 28% Arkansas 33%* 33+ South Carolina 41%* Louisiana 37%* Iowa 36%* Mississippi 36%* Georgia 36%* New York 35% Kansas 33%* Kentucky 33%* *Denotes 2014 Senate Race Exit Poll Data
  • 38. ELECTORAL MAP FAVORED REPUBLICANS 8 2012 Presidential results 2014 Senate map had many Democrats defending seats in “red” states
  • 39. What The Public Wants?
  • 40. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS 2004 2008 2012 2014 Government should do more to solve problems 46% 51% 43% 41% Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals 49% 43% 51% 54% Source: 2014 Exit Polls 39 Views of Government
  • 41. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS Affordable Care Act Do you think the 2010 Federal Health Care Law: Source: 2014 Exit Polls 40 25% 21% 48% Did not go far enough Was about right Went too far
  • 42. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS Climate Change Do you think climate change, also known as global warming, is a serious problem? Source: 2014 Exit Polls 41 40% Yes 58% No 40% DEM REP Yes 70% 29% No 14% 84%
  • 43. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS 2012 2014 Offered a chance to apply for legal status 65% 57% Deported to the country they came from 28% 39% ImmigraLon Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be: Source: 2014 Exit Polls 42
  • 44. HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS AborLon Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be… Source: 2014 Exit Polls 43 23% 29% 26% 17% Legal in all cases Legal in most cases Illegal in most cases Illegal in all cases 52%
  • 46. LOOKING FORWARD: WHAT’S AT STAKE IN 2016 45 Democrats will afempt to retain control of the White House. Candidates will seek to become the 45th president of the United States. All 435 seats will be up for election once again. Senate: House: Republicans Democrats 52* 45* +7 -­‐ 34 seats will be contested. Republicans will be defending 24 of those seats while Democrats will be defending 10. Presidency: *Does not add up to 100 because three races are still undecided
  • 47. 40 For more informa(on, please contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)