On September 8th, 2016 California Governor Jerry Brown signed into law Senate Bill 32 and Assembly Bill 197, establishing a new target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. Since the signing of Assembly Bill 32 a decade ago, California has proven to the world the feasibility of reducing emissions while simultaneously increasing jobs and growing the economy. The establishment of new laws clearly demonstrates California’s continued ambition to decarbonize its economy - now the state must determine the best policy path forward to meet its bold new climate target.
5. 5
1. California’s new 2030 emissions cap
2. How we got here: A decade of progress
3. The path forward to 260 MMT (40% reduction)
OUTLINE
6. 6
A DECADE OF PROGRESS
GOV. SCHWARZENEGGER SIGNS ASSEMBLY BILL 32 (2006)
UCANR
7. 7
A DECADE OF PROGRESS
THE VIEW FROM 2006
AB 32 seemed
ambitious
~30% reduction
below BAU
Allowance price
forecasts of
$20-100 per ton
Robert Stavins
writes “Too
Good to Be True”
UC Berkeley
- 30%
reduction
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A DECADE OF PROGRESS
LOOKING BACK, THE FIRST 10% EASIER THAN EXPECTED
CO2e emissions fell 9.5%
from 2004–2014
Positive economic trends
GDP nearly doubles
In-state job growth
9. 9
75% OF U.S. CLEAN TECH INVESTMENT IN 2015
*Investment includes Venture Capital, debt, grants, private and public equity, and follow-on public offerings.
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A DECADE OF PROGRESS
SURGING RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION – UTILITY SCALE
“Tracking Progress,” California Energy Commission
Renewable Portfolio
Standard progress:
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A DECADE OF PROGRESS
SURGING RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION – DISTRIBUTED
Sources: (1) Next 10, “Green Innovation Index” (2) “Tracking Progress,” California Energy Commission
DG
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TRENDS IN ZERO EMISSION VEHICLES
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
Next 10, “Green Innovation Index”
14. 14
1. California’s new 2030 emissions cap
2. How we got here: A decade of progress
3. The path forward to 260 MMT (40% reduction)
OUTLINE
15. 15
FEASIBILITY OF THE 2030 GOAL
Jeffrey Greenblatt. 2015. “Modeling California policy impacts on greenhouse gas
emissions,” Energy Policy v. 78, pp. 158-172.
Work at Lawrence
Berkeley National
Laboratory identifies
policies to meet the goal
(Shown at right)
Work at U.C. Berkeley
shows policies to meet
target could create
340,000 jobs in 2030.
(David Roland-Holst,
2015, Pathways for
Sustained Prosperity)
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FEASIBILITY OF THE 2030 GOAL
Falls slightly
short of 40%
reductions
Energy+Environmental Economics, Inc. 2015. CA State Agencies'
PATHWAYS Project: Long-term GHG Reduction Scenarios
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THE ROLE OF UNCERTAINTY
CAP VS. TAX: WHY A HYBRID IS THE BEST OPTION
Cannot predict with
high confidence the
shape of abatement
supply many years
into the future