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Food Network Audience Trends Analysis Reveals Opportunities
- 1. Team Star July 28th, 2016 MS Marketing Intelligence, Fordham University CONSULTANCY PROJECT
- 2. Research Director Research Manager Data Analyst Project Director Project Manager Rita Shangguan Maggie Zhang Jeremy Li / Tom Wang Carlos Lian Tom Wang MEET THE STARS Business Manager Client Contact Presentation Coordinator Presentation Editor Sean Pinto Managing Directors Raj Rajaraam Sue Meng Veronica Stuart Sara Xu Jessica Widmann
- 3. TODAY’S RECIPE Program Diagnostic Analysis: Cooks vs. Cons (Season 1 & 2) and Chopped Junior (Season1) THIS MENU HAS TWO ENTREES Audience Trends Analysis: Updated Analysis of Food Network Audience Ratings vs. Competition
- 5. PREPARATION • Compared Food Network’s audience trend and those of other competitive networks over different time periods. • Provided projections for Food Network and its competitors using Three Quarter Moving Average Method.
- 6. COOK & SERVE Analysis & Conclusion
- 7. Trend Since 2006: People still need Food COOK Average Audience For Food Network and Three Competitors 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 AA(000s) Time Period FN HGTV TRAV
- 8. Trend Since 2006: People still need Food COOK 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 AA(000s) Time Period FN HGTV TRAV AMC Average Audience For Food Network and Three Competitors
- 9. COMPETITORS ANALYSIS Current Trend Since 2015 Q1: Steady COOK Recent trend is flat – except for AMC 438 428 447 417 432 556 522 499 437 601 189 173 169 177 197 725 337 458 684 608 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2016 AA(000s) Time Period FOOD HGTV TRAV AMC 3.6%
- 10. COMPETITORS ANALYSIS 712 352 370 693 725 725 337 458 684 608 y = 36.7x + 460.3 y = 11.3x + 528.5 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 AA(000s) Quarter COOK 2014 Q1 – 2015 Q1 2015 Q1 - 2016Q1 Performance Comparison with Last Time Period - AMC
- 11. COMPETITORS ANALYSIS 503 481 504 430 556 556 522 499 437 601 y = 5.5x + 478.3 y = 0.5x + 521.5 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 AA(000s) Quarter COOK 2014 Q1 - 2015Q1 2015 Q1 - 2016Q1 Performance Comparison with Last Time Period - HGTV
- 12. COMPETITORS ANALYSIS 246 201 194 179 189 189 173 169 177 197 y = -13.6x + 242.6 y = 2x + 175 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 AA(000s) Quarter COOK 2014 Q1 - 2015Q1 2015 Q1 - 2016Q1 Performance Comparison with Last Time Period - TRAV
- 13. 489 452 467 411 438 438 428 447 417 432 y = -14.3x + 494.3 y = -2.3x + 439.3 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 AA(000s) Quarter COMPETITORS ANALYSISPerformance Comparison with Last Time Period - FN COOK 2014 Q1 - 2015Q1 2015 Q1 - 2016Q1
- 14. Doing Better than Previous Year SERVE Audience attraction of Food Network has improved since the previous year. 2014 2015 2016
- 15. Predictive Analysis - AMC COOK 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162017 AA(000s) Time Period 3 Quarter Moving Average Average Absolute % Error: 16% 725 337 458 684 608 543 569 494 575 531 542 604 606 578 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2016 2017 AA(000s) Time Period Actual AA (000s) PredictIve AA (000s)Prediction: Overall, AMC AA will increase in upcoming quarters. y = 7.3076x + 523.72
- 16. Predictive Analysis - HGTV COOK 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162017 AA(000s) Time Period 3 Quarter Moving Average Average Absolute % Error: 8% 556 522 499 437 601 484 474 515 527 494 485 542 548 538 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2016 2017 AA(000s) Time Period Actual AA (000s) PredictIve AA (000s)Prediction: Overall, HGTV AA will increase in upcoming four quarters. y = 7.4817x + 474.33
- 17. Predictive Analysis - TRAV COOK 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162017 AA(000s) Time Period 3 Quarter Moving Average Average Absolute % Error: 7% 189 173 169 177 197 188 183 183 172 172 184 192 187 190 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2016 2017 AA(000s) Time Period Actual AA (000s) PredictIve AA (000s)Prediction: Overall, TRAV AA will increase in upcoming four quarters. y = 0.843x + 179.28
- 18. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162017 AA(000s) Time Period 3 Quarter Moving Average Average Absolute % Error: 6% COOK Predictive Analysis - FN 438 428 447 417 432 435 424 431 437 429 424 426 424 423 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2016 2017 AA(000s) Time Period Actual AA (000s) PredictIve AA (000s)Prediction: Overall, Food Network AA is decreasing at a slower pace than before. y = -1.1846x + 434.05
- 19. While Food Network’s average audience is on the decline, the trend is expected to take an upward turn in upcoming quarters. Doing Well in a Tough Market SERVE
- 20. TWITTER SENTIMENT ANALYSIS 293 130 180 95 372 130 112 75 935 736 308 160 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Food network HGTV AMC TRAV negative positive netural 23% 13% 19% 22% Twitter Sentiment Analysis COOK Food Network has the highest positive sentiment amongst competitors from 2015 Q1 to 2016 Q1. Twitter Positive Sentiment is Tasty!
- 21. TWITTER SENTIMENT ANALYSIS Twitter Sentiment Analysis - FN COOK Q3 of 2015 was a successful quarter in terms of ratings and positive sentiment among audience. 438 428 447 417 432 y = -2.3x + 439.3 400 405 410 415 420 425 430 435 440 445 450 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 AA(000s) 30 42 79 55 48 49 66 109 54 46 122 154 212 182 110 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 negative positive netural
- 22. FN has much more engaged audience than its Immediate competitors, leading to long-term loyalty. Entrée is Ready SERVE
- 24. PREPARATION • Analyzed minute by minute in-show ratings for Chopped Junior and Cooks vs. Cons to identify audience trends. • Applied relevant secondary research to formulate recommendations to increase ratings.
- 25. COOK & SERVE Analysis & Conclusion
- 26. 530 754 665 603 510 475 529 538 617 688 571 667 591 y = 0.5198x + 591.54 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 10/27/15 11/03/15 11/10/15 11/17/15 11/24/15 12/01/15 12/08/15 12/15/15 12/22/15 12/29/15 01/05/16 01/12/16 01/19/16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 AA(000s) Episode Chopped Jr. Average Audience by Episode for Season One Chopped Jr. Season 1: Ratings grow slowly COOK
- 27. Minute by Minute – Chopped Junior - Season 1 Chopped Jr. Season 1: Similar Pattern for Each Episode COOK y = 2.1715x + 528.95 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960 AA(000S) MINUTE 13 Episodes Minute by Minute EP1 EP2 EP3 EP4 EP5 EP6 EP7 EP8 EP9 EP10 EP11 EP12 EP13 Average Linear (Average)
- 28. Minute by Minute – Chopped Junior - Season 1Analyzing Season One’s Outliers COOK y = 0.3556x + 464.45 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960 AA(000S) MINUTE Chopped Jr. Season1 Outlier Episodes EP2 EP6 Average Linear (EP6) Difference of Episode 2 in AA = 159 (26.7%), Difference of Episode 6 in AA = - 120 (20.2%)
- 29. 511 451 474 472 368 464 473 496 y = -1.5794x + 470.81 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 04/26/16 05/03/16 05/10/16 05/17/16 05/24/16 05/31/16 06/07/16 06/14/16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 AA(000s) Episode Chopped Jr. Average Audience for Season Two Chopped Jr. Season 2: Steady Ratings COOK • Season Two ratings are lower than season one, but stable
- 30. y = 1.7691x + 409.74 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960 AA(000S) MINUTE 8 Episodes Min by Min EP1 EP2 EP3 EP4 EP5 EP6 EP7 EP8 Average Linear (Average) Chopped Jr. Season 2: Similar Pattern for Each Episode COOK
- 31. 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 AA(000S) MINUTE Chopped Jr. Season 2 Outlier Episode EP5 Average Analyzing Season Two’s Outliers COOK Difference of Episode 5 in AA = - 96 (20.7%)
- 32. • Slight negative slopes – but stable. • High & low outliers may be diagnostic: • For Season1, the ratings grew as the season progressed; • For Season 2, the drop at episode5 is because this episode was released on May 24th at the same on-air time with season finales of The Voice and Dance with the Stars. COOK & SERVEChopper Jr. Has a Healthy Performance SERVE
- 33. 543 595 459 453 437 388 y = -35.832x + 604.75 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 03/17/16 03/24/16 03/31/16 04/07/16 04/14/16 04/21/16 1 2 3 4 5 6 AA(000s) Episode Average for Season One Cooks vs. Cons Season 1: Ratings decline dramatically COOK
- 34. Cooks vs. Cons Season 1: Similar Pattern for Each Episode COOK y = 1.586x + 430.96 300 400 500 600 700 800 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960 AA(000S) MINUTE 6 Episodes Min by Min EP1 EP2 EP3 EP4 EP5 EP6 Average Linear (Average)
- 35. Analyzing Season One Outliers COOK y = 0.313x + 378.55 300 400 500 600 700 800 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960 AA(000S) MINUTE Outstanding Episodes EP2 EP6 Average Linear (EP6) Difference of Episode 2 in AA = 116 (24.2%), Difference of Episode 6 in AA = -91 (19.0%)
- 36. • Significant negative slope – downward trend. • Outliers cannot be attributed to any external factors. COOK & SERVECooks vs. Cons is in Danger SERVE
- 37. COOK & SERVEDinner is Served SERVE Engage audience participation on social media. Let the audience differentiate the cook from the con!
- 38. COOK & SERVEDinner is Served SERVE 530 754 665 603 510 475 529 538 617 688 571 667 59110/27/15 11/03/15 11/10/15 11/17/15 11/24/15 12/01/15 12/08/15 12/15/15 12/22/15 12/29/15 01/05/16 01/12/16 01/19/16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Episode Chopped Jr. Average Audience by Episode for Season One Choose celebrities with an interest in cooking! Selective selection of 3rd judge: • Do not alienate target audience. • Seasonality. Future!
- 39. The Stars are shining brighter than ever.
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Good afternoon, Jen and David, I’m Sue. It’s really nice to see you again since the client meeting. It’s a great honor to work for Food network. I truly appreciate this chance. Now our team will deliver our work to you.
- We are Team Star. Let’s meet the stars of our team first. Sara, …, please introduce your self. And I am Sue, the managing director.
- Back in client meeting, you asked us to update the audience trend analysis from last year’s version and analyze two new programs of FN. So these are exactly the two dishes our team is going to serve today. Tom will talk about the audience trends analysis first.
- We would like to take a look at other networks under FN’s parent company, Scripps Network. The performances of FN and HGTV are close during last 10 years while TRAV is not at the same level in terms of audience scale.
- Furthermore, we picked one network outside Scripps Network, AMC, because this network has similar average audience scale with FN and is very popular among people these years due to its hit shows, such as Walking Dead.
- Let’s take a deeper look at the recent time period. Overall, the trends of three networks under Scripps Networks are relatively flat. However, from Q4 of 2015 to Q1 of 2016, all of them are gaining audience and the growth rate of FN’s audience is 3.6%. On the contrary, AMC is very fluctuated recently. It is mainly because the audience number of AMC is highly relied on its hit shows.
- Now let’s compare the performances over time for each network. The red one is recent trend and the blue one is the old trend of the same time period in previous year. This year, AMC is still gaining audience but the growth rate is much lower.
- HGTV is not performing well, too, compared with the previous year. We can see that the current audience growth rate almost dropped down to 0.
- In such a tough market, TRAV is getting better recently because it was losing audience previously but already started to gain audience slowly.
- Just like TRAV, FN is getting better as well. The trend now is much steady than previous year. Additionally, given the larger total volume of audience of FN than that of TRAV, the improved performance of FN is more significant.
- Based on the historical data we just discussed, we used 3 quarter moving average method to provide prediction of audience number for next 4 quarters. Please note that the scale range of vertical axis are different from network to network according to different audience volumes. For AMC, the average audience will increase. However, due to its highly fluctuating audience volume, AMC’s real performance cannot be predicted very well. The error is about 16%. Unlike AMC, the following three networks can be predicted well with moving average method. We can tell that from low errors.
- Average audience of HGTV is also going to increase at a high speed. The error is only 8% here, which is pretty low.
- TRAV’s average audience will keep increasing but the growth rate is likely to be very low.
- Average audience of FN will decrease but the rate is lower than before. Overall, FN is stopping losing and has a good chance to start gaining audience.
- Our assumption is that average audience may be affected by viewer engagement on social media.
- Future projects can explore the relationship of audience engagement on social media platforms to that of FN’s network trends.
- Thank you Tom. I hope you all enjoyed the entrée ['ɒntreɪ] we served. Now, I would like to show you how we cooked the two new programs.
- Back in June, you asked us to conduct a min by min analysis on the ratings of two programs, Chopped Jr. and Cooks vs. Cons. Apart from that analysis, we also did some secondary research in order to provide possible ways to boost the ratings for these programs.
- First, let’s take a look at the overall performance of Chopped Jr. Season 1. Given the positive slope, 0.5, you can tell the ratings grow slowly.
- This is the min-by-min analysis for all 13 episodes. The red line is the average level. Clearly, the pattern of each episode is very similar. The droppings are caused by commercial time. The most important thing is that generally speaking, shows gain more audience throughout the airtime, which is a very healthy performance. It’s like more and more people will get attracted to this show as competition moves forward.
- We pulled out the two “outliers” of season1 and these two numbers show how different they are from the average level. In addition, episode 6, although performed relatively bad, the internal audience trend is still upward.
- From this chart, you can see the overall performance for Chopped Jr. Season 2. Episode 5 is an obvious dropping.
- From min-by-min analysis, we can again find similar pattern for each episode in terms of regular commercial time and upward internal audience trend.
- We can recognize episode 5 as the outlier of season 2. Its difference level in percentage is around 20%, which is almost the same with those of outliers in season 1.
- For Chopped Jr, we can conclude that this program has a healthy performance. For both seasons, the slopes are very stable. And within each episode, audience number increases throughout airtime. This is a good news for a competitive program. Apart from that, we found the drop at EP5 of season 2 is due to external factors. At the same day and the same on-air time, there are finales of two very popular shows, The Voice and Dance with the Stars. In fact, the airtime of finales was set differently with other episodes of those two shows, so the influence is not repeatable.
- Now, let’s check the other new program, Cooks vs. Cons. We can see that the ratings decline dramatically. The slope is like negative 35.8.
- The good news is that within an episode, audience number grows throughout the airtime.
- Even for the worse-performed episode, the internal trend is still not downward.
- Overall, Cooks vs. Cons is suffering from downward ratings. Also, we couldn’t attribute the outliers to external forces. Therefore, we believe this program is in danger and more effort is needed to help with it.
- Now, we would like to serve the dinner. First of all, we suggested to make use of FN’s strong influence on social media, which we pointed out in sentiment analysis. For example, if Cooks vs. Cons can raise more discussions (even provide rewards) on social media about finding out the real cooks, audience might feel more involved/engaged during the show. Then, they will have more interest in watching Cooks vs. Cons.
- Second, we believe these two competition shows can gain more audience if we choose the 3rd judge more efficiently. The goal is to attract attention, while not alienating ['eɪlɪəneɪt] your target audience. I would like to use Chopped Jr. for example. There are three judges in the show and two of them are professional while the third one is a popular celebrity. Mila Kunis is like an overwhelmingly super star right now, but her “brand image” doesn’t match our show. As a result, it is no wonder she, as the 3rd judge of episode 6, didn’t boost the rating. On the contrary, Ayesha Curry has a positive influence on episode 11’s rating. So, one possible idea is to invite wives of celebrities or celebrities with a relevant “brand image”. Like, in the future, we could invite Hayden Panettaire, who is well known as a good mom. Additionally, we believe the 3rd judge should “match the season”. For example, if Mrs. Curry was invited at the final period of NBA, she might attract much more audience for this show.
- To sum up, we found that Food Network is steady in a down market and its viewers seem very engaged on social media (Twitter) Besides, Scripps Network overall has some real positives Apart from that, we’ve provided 3 quarters moving average projections to compare with your own. For the two new shows, we also conducted internal minute-by-minute audience analysis. Variance between episodes seems more significant and may provide programming cues. We hope you found our dishes tasty and nutritious. And Team Chopped will serve you with two more nice dishes. Thank you.