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1
Customer futures workshop
LCNI conference 12 October 2016
Paul Bircham
Commercial Strategy and Support Director
2
Agenda
Engineering
Recommendation P2/6
Steve Cox
Engineering and
Technical Director
Gerard Boyd
Commercial and
Innovation Manager
Distribution System
Operator Strategy
Project
Michael Brainch
Research Director
Value of Lost Load &
Avatar Projects
3
The Value of Lost Load project
Tracey Kennelly
Innovation customer lead, Electricity North West
Michael Brainch
Research Director, Impact Research
4
What is the value of lost load (VoLL)?
Ofgem used ~£16k/MWh for incentives in RIIO ED1
The mechanism used by the electricity industry to attribute a value on the financial and
social cost of supply interruptions to customers in £ per kWh
Provides a price signal about the adequate level of supply security in GB
VoLL has existed since 1990
2013 - London Economics ~£17k/MWh
average value (excluding I&C)
VoLL varies considerably for domestic and SME
customers
The existing single VoLL is aggregated to provide
an overall estimate of the lost value
5
Objectives of the VoLL project
A better understanding of customer impact by segment
Allows network services to be tailored to customer need
How each segment is best served eg better communications & resilience
Key output:
A model by customer segment showing relative value
Demonstrate how segmented values would help DNOs
improve planning models & guide investment strategies
More targeted decisions, driven by customer need
Guidance on optimum customer strategies
6
Application of a revised VoLL matrix
More targeted investment decisions based on a network’s composite VoLL
Customer segmentation using standard industry data
Efficient use of resources driven by customer needs
X 5X 54 X 4
£ VoLL ?
£
X 10X 18
X 2
X 27
X 2
7
4 ECP panels of
domestic and
SME customers
*
20 depth
interviews
Statistically robust & representative research
to establish VoLL by key customer segments now and in the future
VoLL overview
Interviews with
key stakeholders
to guide research
approach
6,000 interviews
across GB with
domestic and
SME customers
Engagement
with industry
Revised VoLL
model
Recommendation
to Ofgem
8
Why we need a reliable measure of VoLL
The Value of Lost Load (VoLL) is a critical component of infrastructure
investment decision making
It needs to be:
Accurate – a realistic and robust quantification in £/MWh
Representative – covering a range of values across customer
groups
The objective of this study is to establish robust measures of VoLL across
the full spectrum of customers
9
VoLL methodology
Extensive qualitative
customer research
Literature review to
understand the problem &
previous research
Consultation with key
stakeholders with a vested
interest in the study
Extensive quantitative
customer survey
Revised VoLL matrix
Final report and
recommendations to Ofgem
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
10
The key questions
How do customers measure & value lost load?1
What is the financial impact in £ per MWh?2
How will VoLL change in the future?3
Five key
questions
How can DNOs mitigate the cost of lost load to customers?5
How does this vary by customer segment?4
11
Perception of
reliability
Reliability means constant availability
Perception characterised by frequency & duration
Uniform VoLL
Consumers believe a single VoLL is no longer appropriate
Want more granular matrix, reflecting needs of specific groups
Financial & social
impacts
SMEs place greater emphasis on financial impact of lost load
Domestic customers more concerned with non-financial impact
Mitigating the
impact
Achievable with:
Better information and improved channels of communication
Expectations of
reliability
Rural & worst-served have lower expectations but greater tolerance
& resilience than urban customers
How customers measure & value lost load?
What they told us:
Opinions on
investment
Rural & worst served - Expect more investment in worst networks
for parity in service - but don't want bills to increase
Urban & SMEs wont pay more to improve reliability for others
12
Service attributes appraised by customers
Type of power
cut
Advance warning
Frequency of
power cuts
Duration of the
power cut
Time of day Day of week
Assistance for
customers
vulnerable during
the power cut
Proactive
information
about the power
cut
Quality of
information
provided
The one-off payment you pay to avoid this happening/
The one-off amount you receive for this happening
How do customers
measure & value lost
load?
1
13
Advance warning
Frequency of power cuts
Duration of the power cut
Time of day
Day of week
Assistance for customers vulnerable during the power cut
Proactive information about the power cut
Quality of information provided
One-off payment to avoid this happening
Additional support payment
The one-off amount you receive for this happening
Additional amount received with support
High priorities:
Cost, duration, frequency & information
Advance warning
Frequency of power cuts
Duration of the power cut
Time of day
Day of week
Assistance for customers vulnerable during the power cut
Proactive information about the power cut
Quality of information provided
The one-off payment you pay to avoid this happening
Additional support payment
The one-off amount you receive for this happening
Additional amount received with support
Importance
Low
High
14
How do customers measure VoLL
1 2-3 4-6 7-14 15
Domestic SME
Up to 3
mins
Up to 1
hour
Up to 4
hours
Up to 8
hours
Up to 12
hours
12 to 24
hours
Two to
three
days
Duration of the power cut Frequency of power cuts
15
£2,000 £13,500
Willingness to pay £/MWh
£3,700 £35,700
Willingness to accept £/MWh
As expected WTA estimates are much larger
than the comparable WTP estimates
What is the financial impact in £ per MWh?
16
£2,000 £2,000
Willingness to pay £/MWh
£3,700 £12,000
Willingness to accept £/MWh
VoLL
2016
The one-off payment expected by customers to accept the base case is
significantly higher in the LE study, a reflection of the frequency of interruptions
in that study being set at once every 12 years
London
Economics
2013
What is the financial impact in £ per MWh
for domestic customers?
VoLL
2016
London
Economics
2013
17
Imagining a future LCT context
Future? Future?
Future? Future?
£2,000 £13,500
Willingness to pay £/MWh
£3,700 £35,700
Willingness to accept £/MWh
18
£3,500WTA
£2,000WTP
FUTURE SCENARIOS Electric
Vehicles
Slightly higher
Slightly higher
Electric Heat
Pumps
Slightly lower
Slightly higher
PV
No difference
No difference
EHP future scenario
19
WTP WTAAll domestic £3,700£2,000
Domestic LCT users x4-
Domestic PV users x2-
Domestic - high usage x1.5x1.2
Imagined future LCT users --
Current LCT users have a higher WTA than imagined users
Current behaviour
20
Understanding VoLL by segment
Low VoLL High VoLL
VoLL has significantly different values across the various segments of the
customer base; for example, rural customers compared to urban
Older Younger
Less affluent More affluent
Urban Rural
Not Vulnerable Vulnerable
21
WTP
All Domestic (n=669) £1,956
Impact of power cut - Low (n=239) 127
High usage (n=54) 123
Dissatisfied (n=100) 121
Medically Dependant (n=60) 119
Want to improve worse served (n=157) 113
Want to improve reliability (n=67) 110
Want to keep reliability (n=198) 104
Medium usage (n=336) 100
Power cuts (n=358) 100
Low usage (n=277) 97
Satisfied (n=536) 96
No power cuts (n=283) 95
Want to keep bills constant (n=247) 88
Impact of power cut - Medium (n=81) 79
Impact of power cut - High (n=60) 58
WTA
All Domestic (n=669) £3,709
Impact of power cut - Low (n=239) 245
Want to improve supply (n=67) 181
Low usage (n=277) 143
Want to keep reliability (n=198) 136
High usage (n=54) 131
Want to improve worse served (n=157) 117
No power cuts (n=283) 116
Satisfied (n=536) 100
Medically Dependant (n=60) 97
Dissatisfied (n=100) 90
Power cuts (n=358) 88
Medium usage (n=336) 76
Want to keep bills constant (n=247) 69
Impact of power cut - Medium (n=81) 52
Impact of power cut - High (n=60) 21
Customer impacted most by power cuts have the lowest WTP/WTA
High energy users have the highest
WTA & WTP value index (domestic)
22
Relative importance of service
Phone call(s) made directly to your mobile or landline x 3
Accurate information about when the power is expected to be restored x 3
Short message service (SMS) sent to your mobile phone x 3
Automated text-to-speech message x 3
A justified reason for the power cut x 3
A Welfare Pack to help you cope with the power cut x 3
Confirmation that your electricity is back on x 3
Sending a mobile catering van to provide hot food and drinks x 2
Advice on what to do during a power cut x 2
Public address/tannoy system x 2
Sending a mobile unit that allows you to charge mobile phones/ tablet devices x 2
Nominated friend, family member or colleague who can be sent updates instead of, or in addition to us contacting you x 2
Home visits to offer help and advice at any stage x 2
Social media (Twitter, Facebook etc.) x 1
Mitigating VOLL - most important support element
Providing information by phone
23
WTA & WTP value index (domestic)
WTP
All Domestic (n=669) 100
18 – 29 (n=126) 115
Vulnerable (n=379) 106
AB (n=165) 106
Off-gas (n=126) 106
Rural (n=68) 105
C2 (n=123) 104
30 – 44 (n=138) 104
Female (n=119) 103
Urban (n=138) 101
Male (n=98) 98
45 – 59 (n=175) 97
C1 (n=209) 96
DE (n=170) 96
60+ (n=230) 94
Fuel poverty (n=39) 93
WTA
All Domestic (n=669) 100
Fuel poverty (n=39) 195
AB (n=165) 170
18 – 29 (n=126) 138
30 – 44 (n=138) 126
Rural (n=68) 126
Vulnerable (n=379) 118
Female (n=119) 108
C2 (n=123) 100
Male (n=98) 95
60+ (n=230) 94
C1 (n=209) 88
45 – 59 (n=175) 81
Urban (n=138) 81
Off-gas (n=126) 81
DE (n=170) 80
Customers in fuel poverty have lowest propensity to pay more for additional support
and the greatest expectation of compensation
24
Recap the survey method & key findings
Visit our stand and see a short video
25
Early indications
The VoLL methodology is robust
The VoLL model quantifies variations across segments
VoLL is not linear
Some segments support a strong VoLL, hence potentially higher
investment
Early adopters of LCT are indicative of a future VoLL
Enhanced support and information is valued highly
We are confident of producing a reliable segmentation model
26
Next steps
Refine survey
instrument
Winter survey
December
2016 -
February 2017
Publish
interim
analysis from
model by
October 2017
Lessons
learned from
the pilot
survey
(including
peer review)
Final survey
report
including
lessons
learned by
January 2018
Summer
survey
July 2017 to
August 2017
5 64321
27
We need you help
Help us capture the views of
customers to ensure VoLL
reflects all key customer
segments across GB
Share the VoLL
methodology with
stakeholders for comment,
before customer survey in
December 2016
We would value your input
into the evaluation,
findings, proposed
application of the revised
matrix and its implications
Intermediary Validate recommendationsValidate approach
28
Introducing Project Avatar
LCNI 12 October 2016
29
Avatar – the problem
The customer service landscape is changing
Political, economic, social, demographic and technological factors are accelerating a
shift in customers’ needs and expectations
DNOs need to understand and predict
customers’ current and future needs to
improve the service provided
Continuous investment is required in
the right technologies and techniques
to best meet the needs of different
customers
30
Avatar – project objectives
Understand customers future needs
How will these vary by segment
How will we meet the specific needs of
each of these segments
A blueprint for implementing bespoke
customer service solutions
31
Looking back is the best way of imagining
the changes that could occur in the future
Oasis and Blur were at the height of their popularity * Wonderwall
released in October 1995 * The Spice Girls were less than a year away
John Major was prime minister of the UK (1990 to 1997)
Only one per cent of the UK population had Internet access in 1995 –
unthinkable 21 years on.
The Motorola StarTAC was the first ever flip mobile phone and among
the first mobile to gain widespread consumer adoption with
approximately 60 million sold in 1996
Our Commercial Strategy and Support Director, Paul
was no more than a mere lad
32
The questions we will answer
What are current and future customer service needs?
Which range of innovative solutions will best meet
customers increased servicing expectations?
How should these solutions be tailored for use by DNOs?
What is the optimal strategy for customer communication
that will leverage higher levels for customer satisfaction?
Customer
service in
the future
33
Exploratory
literature
review
Expert
thinking
Exploratory
research
Meeting
customer
needs
Pilot study Quantifying
customer
needs
Customer and stakeholder engagement
2 3 65
A comprehensive understanding of the future of customer service
1 4
34
Challenge
Evolution of personal assistants
Getting customers to imagine
future scenarios & technological advances
1985 2015 2035
35
What solutions already exist?
Avatars, chat-bots, and virtual assistants are likely to become
more prominent. Available 24/7 for simple query resolution
Drawing on best practice for current (and future) customer service
from other industry sectors
Initial research has identified some key trends
expected to impact customer service
Contact channels will continue to expand in number, allowing
customers to mix and match communication platforms to
meet their own needs.
Consultation with technical experts
36
Avatar will disseminate
important new learning
•Quantifying how needs
and expectations are
likely to change in 2020
and beyond
Understanding how
customer service needs
vary by different
customer segments and
touch-points
Informing optimal
communication with
customers and methods
of disseminating
information
37
Refining solutions
based on customer
feedback
Combine customer
feedback and input
from frontline
customer service
employees
Engaging with
technical experts to
produce bespoke
service solutions
Assessing customer
appeal and
acceptability of
solutions (by
customer group)
Creation of bespoke
customer service solutions
38
Objective
Identify the optimal technologies & techniques to
best meet the needs of different customers now and in the future
A blueprint for bespoke customer service solutions
to assist DNOs in planning customer investment strategy
39
Next steps
Expert thinking
and employee
engagement
Co-creation
workshop by
September
2017
Engaged
customer panel
Depth
interviews by
June 2018
Extensive
customer
survey by June
2019
Customer
engagement plan
Data privacy
statement
Methodology
statement by June
2017
Customer
service
blueprint
delivered by
December 2019
Pilot survey
Lessons learned
by December
2018
631 2 4 5
40
&QUESTIONS
DISCUSSION
41
For more information
Please contact us if you have any questions or would like to arrange a one-
to-one briefing about our innovation projects
www.enwl.co.uk/thefuture
futurenetworks@enwl.co.uk
0800 195 4141
@ElecNW_News
linkedin.com/company/electricity-north-west
facebook.com/ElectricityNorthWest
youtube.com/ElectricityNorthWest
e

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Customer Futures LCNI presentation VoLL and Avatar

  • 1. 1 Customer futures workshop LCNI conference 12 October 2016 Paul Bircham Commercial Strategy and Support Director
  • 2. 2 Agenda Engineering Recommendation P2/6 Steve Cox Engineering and Technical Director Gerard Boyd Commercial and Innovation Manager Distribution System Operator Strategy Project Michael Brainch Research Director Value of Lost Load & Avatar Projects
  • 3. 3 The Value of Lost Load project Tracey Kennelly Innovation customer lead, Electricity North West Michael Brainch Research Director, Impact Research
  • 4. 4 What is the value of lost load (VoLL)? Ofgem used ~£16k/MWh for incentives in RIIO ED1 The mechanism used by the electricity industry to attribute a value on the financial and social cost of supply interruptions to customers in £ per kWh Provides a price signal about the adequate level of supply security in GB VoLL has existed since 1990 2013 - London Economics ~£17k/MWh average value (excluding I&C) VoLL varies considerably for domestic and SME customers The existing single VoLL is aggregated to provide an overall estimate of the lost value
  • 5. 5 Objectives of the VoLL project A better understanding of customer impact by segment Allows network services to be tailored to customer need How each segment is best served eg better communications & resilience Key output: A model by customer segment showing relative value Demonstrate how segmented values would help DNOs improve planning models & guide investment strategies More targeted decisions, driven by customer need Guidance on optimum customer strategies
  • 6. 6 Application of a revised VoLL matrix More targeted investment decisions based on a network’s composite VoLL Customer segmentation using standard industry data Efficient use of resources driven by customer needs X 5X 54 X 4 £ VoLL ? £ X 10X 18 X 2 X 27 X 2
  • 7. 7 4 ECP panels of domestic and SME customers * 20 depth interviews Statistically robust & representative research to establish VoLL by key customer segments now and in the future VoLL overview Interviews with key stakeholders to guide research approach 6,000 interviews across GB with domestic and SME customers Engagement with industry Revised VoLL model Recommendation to Ofgem
  • 8. 8 Why we need a reliable measure of VoLL The Value of Lost Load (VoLL) is a critical component of infrastructure investment decision making It needs to be: Accurate – a realistic and robust quantification in £/MWh Representative – covering a range of values across customer groups The objective of this study is to establish robust measures of VoLL across the full spectrum of customers
  • 9. 9 VoLL methodology Extensive qualitative customer research Literature review to understand the problem & previous research Consultation with key stakeholders with a vested interest in the study Extensive quantitative customer survey Revised VoLL matrix Final report and recommendations to Ofgem Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
  • 10. 10 The key questions How do customers measure & value lost load?1 What is the financial impact in £ per MWh?2 How will VoLL change in the future?3 Five key questions How can DNOs mitigate the cost of lost load to customers?5 How does this vary by customer segment?4
  • 11. 11 Perception of reliability Reliability means constant availability Perception characterised by frequency & duration Uniform VoLL Consumers believe a single VoLL is no longer appropriate Want more granular matrix, reflecting needs of specific groups Financial & social impacts SMEs place greater emphasis on financial impact of lost load Domestic customers more concerned with non-financial impact Mitigating the impact Achievable with: Better information and improved channels of communication Expectations of reliability Rural & worst-served have lower expectations but greater tolerance & resilience than urban customers How customers measure & value lost load? What they told us: Opinions on investment Rural & worst served - Expect more investment in worst networks for parity in service - but don't want bills to increase Urban & SMEs wont pay more to improve reliability for others
  • 12. 12 Service attributes appraised by customers Type of power cut Advance warning Frequency of power cuts Duration of the power cut Time of day Day of week Assistance for customers vulnerable during the power cut Proactive information about the power cut Quality of information provided The one-off payment you pay to avoid this happening/ The one-off amount you receive for this happening How do customers measure & value lost load? 1
  • 13. 13 Advance warning Frequency of power cuts Duration of the power cut Time of day Day of week Assistance for customers vulnerable during the power cut Proactive information about the power cut Quality of information provided One-off payment to avoid this happening Additional support payment The one-off amount you receive for this happening Additional amount received with support High priorities: Cost, duration, frequency & information Advance warning Frequency of power cuts Duration of the power cut Time of day Day of week Assistance for customers vulnerable during the power cut Proactive information about the power cut Quality of information provided The one-off payment you pay to avoid this happening Additional support payment The one-off amount you receive for this happening Additional amount received with support Importance Low High
  • 14. 14 How do customers measure VoLL 1 2-3 4-6 7-14 15 Domestic SME Up to 3 mins Up to 1 hour Up to 4 hours Up to 8 hours Up to 12 hours 12 to 24 hours Two to three days Duration of the power cut Frequency of power cuts
  • 15. 15 £2,000 £13,500 Willingness to pay £/MWh £3,700 £35,700 Willingness to accept £/MWh As expected WTA estimates are much larger than the comparable WTP estimates What is the financial impact in £ per MWh?
  • 16. 16 £2,000 £2,000 Willingness to pay £/MWh £3,700 £12,000 Willingness to accept £/MWh VoLL 2016 The one-off payment expected by customers to accept the base case is significantly higher in the LE study, a reflection of the frequency of interruptions in that study being set at once every 12 years London Economics 2013 What is the financial impact in £ per MWh for domestic customers? VoLL 2016 London Economics 2013
  • 17. 17 Imagining a future LCT context Future? Future? Future? Future? £2,000 £13,500 Willingness to pay £/MWh £3,700 £35,700 Willingness to accept £/MWh
  • 18. 18 £3,500WTA £2,000WTP FUTURE SCENARIOS Electric Vehicles Slightly higher Slightly higher Electric Heat Pumps Slightly lower Slightly higher PV No difference No difference EHP future scenario
  • 19. 19 WTP WTAAll domestic £3,700£2,000 Domestic LCT users x4- Domestic PV users x2- Domestic - high usage x1.5x1.2 Imagined future LCT users -- Current LCT users have a higher WTA than imagined users Current behaviour
  • 20. 20 Understanding VoLL by segment Low VoLL High VoLL VoLL has significantly different values across the various segments of the customer base; for example, rural customers compared to urban Older Younger Less affluent More affluent Urban Rural Not Vulnerable Vulnerable
  • 21. 21 WTP All Domestic (n=669) £1,956 Impact of power cut - Low (n=239) 127 High usage (n=54) 123 Dissatisfied (n=100) 121 Medically Dependant (n=60) 119 Want to improve worse served (n=157) 113 Want to improve reliability (n=67) 110 Want to keep reliability (n=198) 104 Medium usage (n=336) 100 Power cuts (n=358) 100 Low usage (n=277) 97 Satisfied (n=536) 96 No power cuts (n=283) 95 Want to keep bills constant (n=247) 88 Impact of power cut - Medium (n=81) 79 Impact of power cut - High (n=60) 58 WTA All Domestic (n=669) £3,709 Impact of power cut - Low (n=239) 245 Want to improve supply (n=67) 181 Low usage (n=277) 143 Want to keep reliability (n=198) 136 High usage (n=54) 131 Want to improve worse served (n=157) 117 No power cuts (n=283) 116 Satisfied (n=536) 100 Medically Dependant (n=60) 97 Dissatisfied (n=100) 90 Power cuts (n=358) 88 Medium usage (n=336) 76 Want to keep bills constant (n=247) 69 Impact of power cut - Medium (n=81) 52 Impact of power cut - High (n=60) 21 Customer impacted most by power cuts have the lowest WTP/WTA High energy users have the highest WTA & WTP value index (domestic)
  • 22. 22 Relative importance of service Phone call(s) made directly to your mobile or landline x 3 Accurate information about when the power is expected to be restored x 3 Short message service (SMS) sent to your mobile phone x 3 Automated text-to-speech message x 3 A justified reason for the power cut x 3 A Welfare Pack to help you cope with the power cut x 3 Confirmation that your electricity is back on x 3 Sending a mobile catering van to provide hot food and drinks x 2 Advice on what to do during a power cut x 2 Public address/tannoy system x 2 Sending a mobile unit that allows you to charge mobile phones/ tablet devices x 2 Nominated friend, family member or colleague who can be sent updates instead of, or in addition to us contacting you x 2 Home visits to offer help and advice at any stage x 2 Social media (Twitter, Facebook etc.) x 1 Mitigating VOLL - most important support element Providing information by phone
  • 23. 23 WTA & WTP value index (domestic) WTP All Domestic (n=669) 100 18 – 29 (n=126) 115 Vulnerable (n=379) 106 AB (n=165) 106 Off-gas (n=126) 106 Rural (n=68) 105 C2 (n=123) 104 30 – 44 (n=138) 104 Female (n=119) 103 Urban (n=138) 101 Male (n=98) 98 45 – 59 (n=175) 97 C1 (n=209) 96 DE (n=170) 96 60+ (n=230) 94 Fuel poverty (n=39) 93 WTA All Domestic (n=669) 100 Fuel poverty (n=39) 195 AB (n=165) 170 18 – 29 (n=126) 138 30 – 44 (n=138) 126 Rural (n=68) 126 Vulnerable (n=379) 118 Female (n=119) 108 C2 (n=123) 100 Male (n=98) 95 60+ (n=230) 94 C1 (n=209) 88 45 – 59 (n=175) 81 Urban (n=138) 81 Off-gas (n=126) 81 DE (n=170) 80 Customers in fuel poverty have lowest propensity to pay more for additional support and the greatest expectation of compensation
  • 24. 24 Recap the survey method & key findings Visit our stand and see a short video
  • 25. 25 Early indications The VoLL methodology is robust The VoLL model quantifies variations across segments VoLL is not linear Some segments support a strong VoLL, hence potentially higher investment Early adopters of LCT are indicative of a future VoLL Enhanced support and information is valued highly We are confident of producing a reliable segmentation model
  • 26. 26 Next steps Refine survey instrument Winter survey December 2016 - February 2017 Publish interim analysis from model by October 2017 Lessons learned from the pilot survey (including peer review) Final survey report including lessons learned by January 2018 Summer survey July 2017 to August 2017 5 64321
  • 27. 27 We need you help Help us capture the views of customers to ensure VoLL reflects all key customer segments across GB Share the VoLL methodology with stakeholders for comment, before customer survey in December 2016 We would value your input into the evaluation, findings, proposed application of the revised matrix and its implications Intermediary Validate recommendationsValidate approach
  • 29. 29 Avatar – the problem The customer service landscape is changing Political, economic, social, demographic and technological factors are accelerating a shift in customers’ needs and expectations DNOs need to understand and predict customers’ current and future needs to improve the service provided Continuous investment is required in the right technologies and techniques to best meet the needs of different customers
  • 30. 30 Avatar – project objectives Understand customers future needs How will these vary by segment How will we meet the specific needs of each of these segments A blueprint for implementing bespoke customer service solutions
  • 31. 31 Looking back is the best way of imagining the changes that could occur in the future Oasis and Blur were at the height of their popularity * Wonderwall released in October 1995 * The Spice Girls were less than a year away John Major was prime minister of the UK (1990 to 1997) Only one per cent of the UK population had Internet access in 1995 – unthinkable 21 years on. The Motorola StarTAC was the first ever flip mobile phone and among the first mobile to gain widespread consumer adoption with approximately 60 million sold in 1996 Our Commercial Strategy and Support Director, Paul was no more than a mere lad
  • 32. 32 The questions we will answer What are current and future customer service needs? Which range of innovative solutions will best meet customers increased servicing expectations? How should these solutions be tailored for use by DNOs? What is the optimal strategy for customer communication that will leverage higher levels for customer satisfaction? Customer service in the future
  • 33. 33 Exploratory literature review Expert thinking Exploratory research Meeting customer needs Pilot study Quantifying customer needs Customer and stakeholder engagement 2 3 65 A comprehensive understanding of the future of customer service 1 4
  • 34. 34 Challenge Evolution of personal assistants Getting customers to imagine future scenarios & technological advances 1985 2015 2035
  • 35. 35 What solutions already exist? Avatars, chat-bots, and virtual assistants are likely to become more prominent. Available 24/7 for simple query resolution Drawing on best practice for current (and future) customer service from other industry sectors Initial research has identified some key trends expected to impact customer service Contact channels will continue to expand in number, allowing customers to mix and match communication platforms to meet their own needs. Consultation with technical experts
  • 36. 36 Avatar will disseminate important new learning •Quantifying how needs and expectations are likely to change in 2020 and beyond Understanding how customer service needs vary by different customer segments and touch-points Informing optimal communication with customers and methods of disseminating information
  • 37. 37 Refining solutions based on customer feedback Combine customer feedback and input from frontline customer service employees Engaging with technical experts to produce bespoke service solutions Assessing customer appeal and acceptability of solutions (by customer group) Creation of bespoke customer service solutions
  • 38. 38 Objective Identify the optimal technologies & techniques to best meet the needs of different customers now and in the future A blueprint for bespoke customer service solutions to assist DNOs in planning customer investment strategy
  • 39. 39 Next steps Expert thinking and employee engagement Co-creation workshop by September 2017 Engaged customer panel Depth interviews by June 2018 Extensive customer survey by June 2019 Customer engagement plan Data privacy statement Methodology statement by June 2017 Customer service blueprint delivered by December 2019 Pilot survey Lessons learned by December 2018 631 2 4 5
  • 41. 41 For more information Please contact us if you have any questions or would like to arrange a one- to-one briefing about our innovation projects www.enwl.co.uk/thefuture futurenetworks@enwl.co.uk 0800 195 4141 @ElecNW_News linkedin.com/company/electricity-north-west facebook.com/ElectricityNorthWest youtube.com/ElectricityNorthWest e

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. The value of lost load (VoLL) is a monetary indicator expressing the costs associated with an interruption of electricity supply. First set at £2/kWh (£2000/MWH) in 1990, coinciding with Electricity deregulation of in England and Wales this value was then updated annually in line with inflation This review draws on the comprehensive work undertaken by London Economics for Ofgem and DECC in 2013, who established a figure of just under £17/MWh as the overall national average VoLL for domestic and SME customers in GB. This is close to the value of £16K/MWh set by Ofgem for RIIO ED1
  2. What does the Value of Lost Load project aim to achieve? The Value of Lost Load project (or VoLL) will carry out a programme of engagement with a range of different types of customers to help us better understand the value that different customers place on a reliable supply of electricity. This understanding will help us decide where to invest in the network and meet the needs of our customers more efficiently.
  3. Handover to Michael
  4. ….Today we report on a comprehensive pilot study covering the use of market research to establish these values.
  5. Extensive customer research will build on previous studies in this area, to determine if a revised VoLL model would benefit customers. The VoLL Methodology incorporates three distinct phases of customer engagement: Phase 1: Understanding the problem [COMPLETED] Phase 2: Refining the approach [COMPLETED] Phase 3: Measuring VoLL A final report and recommendations will be disseminated to Ofgem by January 2018.
  6. A large-scale quantitative survey has been conducted to provide insight into the following research questions READ OUT QUESTIONS It is important to note that the baseline scenario for our analysis is an outage lasting one hour and occurring at peak time, which is consistent with the protocol utilized by London Economics in 2013.
  7. In Phase 2 we refined our approach by conducting focus groups and depth interviews with a cross-section of customers, and with stakeholders likely to be in contact with or support customers during a supply interruption. In this phase we learned: The definitive measure of reliability is constant availability. Perception is characterised by the frequency and duration of interruptions Rural and worst-served perceive that all customers should expect the same level of service Consumers are impacted by power cuts in different ways and object to the current single uniform VoLL applied to all customer segments Domestic customers place greater emphasis on the non-financial impacts of inconvenience and the associated emotional impact of potential distress Tolerance of unplanned interruptions can be enhanced by improving channels of communication These insights helped us refine our approach and develop a quantitative customer survey. The survey includes a stated preference choice experiment (CE). This involves asking customers to trade off different levels of supply reliability and support in exchange for a hypothetical financial incentive or penalty.
  8. Identification of the key characteristics of supply interruptions has been fundamental to the success of this phase of the VoLL study and has been instrumental in the design of a robust, quantitative customer survey and specifically, the stated preference choice exercise. In consultation with customers and stakeholders we included 9 service attributes in our design, ranging from the type of power cut through to the quality of information provided. VoLL has been measured both in terms of customers’ willingness to accept (WTA) compensation for lost load and willingness to pay (WTP) for avoidance of lost load.
  9. In this analysis we have identified the relative importance of all the service attributes we tested in the Stated Preference exercise. The attributes are rank ordered from most important at the top to least important at the bottom and are broadly grouped into three categories of high, medium and low importance. The need for a segmented VoLL is illustrated early on in our analysis by comparing the results for domestic customers on the left hand side of the chart to SMEs on the right hand side. There is clearly greater sensitivity towards any form of additional payment amongst domestic customers and enhanced appeal for proactive information amongst SMEs. The duration of supply interruptions is also very influential.
  10. Within each of the 9 service attributes included in our design, multiple levels have been evaluated by customers and here we have isolated duration and frequency of interruptions to illustrate the importance placed upon them. The results indicate that for domestic customers sensitivity to duration and frequency is mainly linear with interruptions lasting 12+ hours approximately four times as damaging as short duration interruptions (up to 3 minutes). I should also say that on the previous slide we observed the importance of the quality of information provided to SMEs during a fault and interestingly further analysis indicates that information is always important to SMEs regardless of the duration experienced.
  11. WTA estimates are much larger than the comparable WTP estimates. This is as expected. When consumers are used to enjoying a service that they pay for, they typically want a greater payment in order to bear a loss of that service than they are willing to pay to retain it. An analogy here would be home insurance where willingness to pay represents the amount in £ that consumers are willing to pay for their policy and willingness to accept is the compensation expected should their home catch on fire. Alternatively in the transport sector it is the amount consumers are willing to pay for a train ticket and the compensation they expect if the service is cancelled and replaced with a bus service.
  12. WTA estimates are much larger than the comparable WTP estimates. This is as expected. When consumers are used to enjoying a service that they pay for, they typically want a greater payment in order to bear a loss of that service than they are willing to pay to retain it. An analogy here would be home insurance where willingness to pay represents the amount in £ that consumers are willing to pay for their policy and willingness to accept is the compensation expected should their home catch on fire. Alternatively in the transport sector it is the amount consumers are willing to pay for a train ticket and the compensation they expect if the service is cancelled and replaced with a bus service.
  13. The survey used the same method to derive VoLL with all respondents. However, for half of the respondents, the questions presented were phrased in terms of current electricity usage; for the other half, they were phrased in terms of future usage with a greater presence of LCTs. At this early stage I can inform you that we do not have sufficient confidence in the method utilised in the Pilot Survey to reliably conclude customers are able to place themselves in a future LCT context, ie the results are broadly similar to the current scenario.
  14. Having said that, when we have looked at the results in more granular detail there are some interesting differences by the type of future LCT context considered. Customers responded to the Stated Preference exercise based on one of three scenarios; owing an electric vehicle in the future, owning and operating solar panels or heating their property via electric heat pumps. Those imagining the electric heat pump future context had the lowest willingness to pay and highest damage function, with a greater expectation for compensation when bearing the loss of their supply.
  15. Investigation of the potential variation of VoLL in relation to LCTs has not be confined solely to comparisons of the results for the current and imagined future contexts. VoLL for current users of LCTs can be compared with VoLL for current non-users of LCTs; additionally, VoLL for high users of electricity can be compared with VoLL for low users. The potential change in VoLL as consumers increase their LCT usage and electricity consumption in the future can be inferred from both of these comparisons. Current users of low carbon technologies have a much higher willingness to accept, with the damage function being four times the average amount expected for bearing the loss of supply. This is a key finding. An increase in customer use, and hence dependency on electricity, is a critical factor in influencing future VoLL and therefore long-term decision-making in investment planning.
  16. Here we have segmented VoLL by key socio-demographic information that was collected during the survey. At this stage of the analysis we are not trying to presuppose what is important or how this information may be utilised by DNOs, rather we are simply trying to discover how VoLL is actually segmented. Early indications are that younger customers, those in in rural locations and with a higher income have a relatively high VoLL. We have also separated out age from vulnerability and vulnerable customers also have a significantly higher VoLL.
  17. There are LOTS of statistics on this slide; suffice to say that our study is so comprehensive that it has the ability to segment VoLL by a multitude of variables including the impact of interruptions on customers, electricity usage bands and other key segments: Worst-served customers Customers affected by large scale supply interruptions during adverse weather in either winter 2015/16 or winter 2016/2017 Vulnerable customers Customers in fuel poverty Off-gas network customers LCT users SMEs in a range of sectors and of various sizes Low, medium and high dependency customers Home workers.
  18. Now, with regards to question five: how can DNOs mitigate the cost of lost load? The application of a revised segmented VoLL will be attractive because it does not involve a significant change to the way that DNOs assess the benefits of lost load mitigation. Rather, it allows them to refine their models to produce a more precise method for prioritising investment. The analysis on this slide evaluates the extent to which enhanced support would mitigate their assessment of VoLL. It suggest that optimised customer communications could provide a financially efficient means of mitigating power loss compared with network reinforcement. For instance, a phone call made directly to domestic customers is three times as important in mitigating the impact of loss of supply than updates via social media. We intend to extend this analysis to reviewing the interaction between expectations of enhanced support and the duration of supply interruptions.
  19. Again, there are LOTS of statistics here, however, the chart demonstrates our intention to segment the premium attached to enhanced support options by customer segment to understand the people behind the numbers.
  20. A recap of the VoLL methodology and the story so far.
  21. To understand your unique perspectives, we would like to share the VoLL methodology with stakeholders for comment, before embarking on the customer survey in December 2016 Help us to maximise the reach of the survey and capture the views of the customers you represent / support during power cuts, to ensure VoLL reflects all key customer segments across GB We would value your input in the evaluation of the project findings, the proposed application of the revised VoLL matrix and its implications, before the final report and recommendations are submitted
  22. Hand over to kate
  23. Broaden the level of understanding about customer service needs and future expectations Establish a robust measure of anticipated future attitudes, behaviours and needs by customer segment Integrate customer research with existing service provisions and innovative solutions to optimise a customer service approach Bespoke customer service solutions, targeted at specific customer groups to meet their unique medium and long term future needs and expectations A blueprint for implementing bespoke customer service solutions
  24. A direct outcome of this project will be the identification of future customer service needs. In order to understand future customer needs, we must first understand what current needs are. We will also review future technological solutions, identifying innovative solutions that are currently on offer and those which are in development for the future. We also need to understand how these solutions should be adapted for DNO’s to ensure that they continue to meet customers needs when contacting a DNO, now and in the future. As a result of customer and stakeholder engagement, insight will be utilised to develop a strategy, combining the best approaches and solutions to directly meet customer needs
  25. How will we do this? We have a comprehensive six phased project planned, engaging with a wide variety of stakeholders along the way: Exploratory literature review. Reviewing literature on current and future needs of customers, and exploring new initiatives in customer service. Expert Thinking. Speaking to the experts – the technology organizations who are already working on customer service solutions for the future . Engaging with the front line customer service staff closest to the current issues, gaining an understanding of what makes for good and bad interactions with customers. They have knowledge as to where customer needs are not being met. Providing advice from the bottom up. Exploratory Research. This is when we start to consult with customers. Through qualitative research (Engaged Customer Panels and depth interviews), we will speak to customers to explore their current customer service needs, and more challenging, what they anticipate their future needs to be. We will also start assessing top level reactions to general themes around customer service innovations. Taking the learnings so far, we will conduct a Pilot Study testing a quantitative survey which will be used to quantify customer needs and produce a customer segmentation in a large scale study in stage 5 Finally, we will work in partnership to design and develop concepts which will then be piloted and tested to check customer acceptability.
  26. Taking personal assistants as an analogy… In 1985, if you had a personal assistant it was likely to be a person. By 2015 we had virtual assistants on our mobile phones. Siri was introduced in 2011, and Cortana in 2014 Siri was initially very basic, though has evolved over time and now even has a sense of humour!! However, its functionality is limited and interactions are not prefect. By 2035 its envisaged that many things will act as a personal assistant. Technology will get smaller, smarter and cheaper. In fact, it will get so small, smart and cheap that we’ll be able to put computers and sensors into almost anything – fridges will tell us when we’ve run out of milk, bins will tell the council when they’re full, 4K televisions will notice when we’ve stopped watching and turn themselves off to save power. We’re on the road to the internet of things where everything is connected, not only to the internet but also to one another. We will have virtual assistants (the next generation of Google Now, Siri and Cortana) to help us manage the flood of data and make sense of it.
  27. We will consult with organizations, identified in the desk research, that are embracing new techniques, along with experts in the field of customer service e.g. Institute of Customer Service, to understand longer term strategies and visions of future service. We are keen to take learnings from initiatives that have already and are expected to radically change customer service, such as online self-serve (financial sector) and ‘on demand’ services (transport, travel and tourism) and remote interactive services. Initial research has identified some key trends expected to impact customer service: Avatars, chat-bots, and virtual assistants are likely to become more prominent. An avatar is the graphical representation of the user or the user's alter ego or character, such as Ikeas Anna, who has evolved over time to become increasingly life like. Available 24/7 for simple query resolution currently, it is expected that these will become even more sophisticated in the future. Contact channels will continue to expand in number, allowing customers to mix and match communication platforms to meet their own needs. Will new methods of contact enter the mix or become increasingly important such as video contact? Will 3rd party companies offer to take on the contact for you for example monitoring peoples smart meters and letting them know when supply is resorted? Discussion with leading manufacturers of innovative technologies and relevant trade associations will identify developments in innovation that are likely to be in production during ED2 and beyond. The emphasis will be on technical innovations that hybridize commercial considerations with customers’ service expectations, applicability and acceptability. This is important….The technological experts know what is possible to develop for the future. But how the future unfolds is also heavily dependent on customers opinion of and acceptance of new solutions. And acceptability of solutions may vary by customer type, and also by interaction..
  28. ..Which is why interaction with customers throughout the project is key. We need to understand how customer needs vary for different types of customers and for different types of interactions. To produce a strategy for the future we also need to understand how needs and expectations are likely to change. By understanding this we can then design an optimal approach to communicating with customers.
  29. We will use customer insight to create bespoke customer service solutions that directly meet the medium and long term needs of customers. We will review customer feedback and meet with specialist service organizations and manufacturers of innovative technologies and relevant trade associations to design new concepts and solutions. These will then be tested with customers in a large scale survey, where we will obtain feedback from a representative range of customers across all customer groups including but not limited to urban, rural, the young (18-24 years) and customers who have made previous contact with their DNO. Finally, solutions will be refined based on customers feedback. I cannot emphasise enough the importance of customer opinion. Nokia developed the first tablet years before apple…..but discarded it as didn’t think customers would see the need from it. NOW half the UK population will use a tablet in 2015 –Research firm eMarketer predicts that there’ll be 32.8m British tablet users this year, with just over half of them using Apple’s iPad.
  30. If the approach is credible, it can provide solutions tailored to, and accepted by specific customer groups, which can then be implemented by all DNOs as a business as usual model; provided the approach is easily applicable and affordable. This blueprint is expected to inform long term customer strategy and investment planning.