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FRENCH
PROPERTY MARKETS

2012 SUMMARY & 2013 OUTLOOK
                              9th JANUARY 2013
INTRODUCTION
                          INVESTMENT




INTRODUCTION




               CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD     1
ECONOMIC CONTEXT AND FORECASTS                                                                                                                                   INTRODUCTION
                                                                                                                                                                   INVESTMENT




 GLOBAL ECONOMY / GDP GROWTH (%)                                          TRENDS IN FRENCH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE *

                               2011               2012    2013*   2014*       11,0%

 Euro Zone                       1.4              - 0.4    0.0     1.3        10,5%

 Germany
                                 3.1              1.0      0.6     1.7        10,0%

 France                          1.7              0.1      0.4     1.3          9,5%


 United Kingdom                  0.8              - 0.2    0.4     1.1          9,0%


 USA                             1.7              2.2      1.9     2.8          8,5%


 China                           9.3              7.7      8.5     7.8          8,0%
                                                                                             q1         q2         q3          q4   q1          q2     q3   q4      q1       q2
 Global                          3.8              2.9      3.2     3.6
                                                                                              2011                                       2012                            2013**

 Sources: Crédit Agricole and OCDE / *Forecast.                           Source: INSEE / * Metropolitan France / **Forecast




• After relative improvements during 2011, the global economic climate for both developed and emerging countries
  deteriorated in 2012.
• French growth remained sluggish in 2012, a year which was also marked by the general elections. Industry in particular,
  was hit the hardest and saw the multiplication of restructuring plans.
• Whilst household consumption remained resilient somehow, it is no longer the driver of growth and is expected to decline
  further due to the deterioration of the job market.



                                                                                                                                                     CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD          2
EFFECTS OF THE CRISIS ON THE FRENCH PROPERTY MARKET                                  INTRODUCTION
                                                                                       INVESTMENT




• A longer economic crisis than expected.


• The real estate market has felt the impact of
  the crisis since 2008.

                                                                  Savings
• 2009 was the year of the recession and the
  accentuation of the public deficit, marking the
  lowest point in the rental and investment
  property markets.

                                                     Visibility
• After a slight recovery in 2010, the real estate
  market saw the most growth in 2011: the
  regaining of confidence was helped by
  government measures taken both in the                                     Security
  Eurozone and USA to stabilize the global
  economy.


• Further decline in 2012: the debt crisis
  remained unresolved and the French elections
  resulted in a decrease in investor and company
  confidence.
                                                                            CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD     3
OVERVIEW OF THE 2012 FRENCH INVESTMENT MARKET                                                 INTRODUCTION
                                                                                                 INVESTMENT




• A total of €14.9bn was invested in France in 2012 representing a decrease
  of 10% when compared to the previous year and a volume close to the 10 year
  average (-2 %). Large transactions, which mostly occurred in Paris, limited the
  decline in activity.


• With take-up of 2.1 million sq.m of office space in Ile-de France, demand has
  fallen by 10% compared with 2011. There was lower appetite for small and medium
  sized areas although the Parisian market was offset by the completion of several
  large-scale operations.


• With1.8 million sq.m of warehouse space let or sold to occupiers in France
  in 2012, take-up was down by 25% on the previous year. The logistics market has
  suffered due to the wait and see attitude of occupiers as well as the poor
  performance of the majority of the large logistics hubs in France


• The arrival of a number of major foreign brands to France, the rapid expansion of
  large retailers and the dynamism of the luxury sector have been of benefit to
  zone A locations and to prime markets.


                                                                                      CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD     4
INVESTMENT




PROPERTY INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN FRANCE




                                         CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    5
2012 KEY FACTS                                                             INVESTMENT




   ---                                        +++

   Moderate FALL in investment volume.      LARGE TRANSACTIONS played a
                                            key role.
   Less active OFFICE LETTINGS              Increasing presence of
  MARKET.                                   INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS.

   Contrasting performances in the          Domination of PARIS INTRA-
  different business districts of ILE-DE-   MUROS.
  FRANCE.
                                             RETAIL: targeted sectors
                                            performed well.

                                             Rebound of the LOGISTICS market.




                                                                 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    6
INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN FRANCE (€ BN)                                                                             INVESTMENT




• A total of €14.9bn was invested in France in 2012 (418 transactions), €11bn of which was
  invested in Ile-de-France.                                                                                   €14.9BN
• A 10% fall in investment volumes over the course of the year, or a 2 % fall when compared with                  invested in France
  the yearly average of the last 10 years (€15.2bn).                                                                         in 2012

• Investment volume still greatly exceeded its low point of 2009 (€7.8bn).

   30
                                                                                                                      -10%
   25
                                                                                                                        yoy
   20



   15



   10



   5
         11,1




                                     17,5


                                                24,4


                                                            28,5


                                                                   13,0




                                                                                 11,1


                                                                                        16,5


                                                                                               14,9
                         12,2
                 9,8




                                                                          7,8



   0
        2002     2003    2004       2005       2006         2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012

                                10-year average (€15.2bn)



                                                                                                      CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD         7
OFFICE INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN FRANCE                                                                                             INVESTMENT




• A 19% fall yoy, or an 11% fall in comparison with the yearly average of the last 10 years (€11.2bn).
• Accounting for 67% of all investments, the share of office investments was down slightly on last year, due to the fall in
  transactions in the region of €50-100m.

  25                                                                                                           100%




  20                                                                                                           80%
                             84%



  15                                                                                                    67%    60%
                                                                                           61%



  10                                                                                                           40%




   5                                                                                                           20%
                                          14,0


                                                 18,2


                                                              19,5


                                                                        10,3




                                                                                                        10,0
                             10,2




                                                                                                 12,3
         7,7




                                                                                    5,3
                  8,0




                                                                                          6,7
   0                                                                                                           0%
        2002      2003      2004      2005       2006        2007       2008      2009    2010   2011   2012


               Office investments (€bn)                 Share in total investments (%)
                                                        10-year average (€11.2bn)


                                                                                                                      CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    8
OFFICE INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN PARIS/ILE DE FRANCE                                                                             INVESTMENT




• Investment volumes were down by 32% in the “Western Crescent” (Western Business District, La Défense and the
  South-Western Suburbs) in 2012.
• Certain well-located markets in the suburbs performed well. Boasting quality office buildings at competitive rents and with
  excellent transport links, these sectors provide a good alternative for office lettings.


 INVESTMENT BREAKDOWN (€ VOLUME)

                                                          7%           2012
                                                     1%
                                2011            8%
              9%
         7%                                7%
                                                                              Start – Guyancourt                     Urbagreen – Joinville-le-Pont
       2%                                 2%
      4%
                              47%          10%                      60%
      11%
                                                4%
        7%
              11% 2%
                                                 Inner Paris                  Liberté II – Charenton-Le-Pont
                                                                                                                      City Zen – Bois-Colombes
        Inner Paris                              La Defense
        La Defense                               Western business districts
        Western business districts               Boucle de Seine
        Boucle de Seine                          Southwestern suburbs
        Southwestern suburbs                     Southern suburbs
        Southern suburbs
                                                 Eastern suburbs
        Eastern suburbs
        Northern suburbs                         Northern suburbs
                                                                              Terra Nova IV – Montreuil
        Rest of Paris region                     Rest of Paris region




                                                                                                               CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD                   9
INVESTMENT DEAL ANALYSIS                                                                                                               INVESTMENT




• Out of a total of 418 transactions, 39 were over €100m, representing 53% of investments (9% of the total number).
• Medium-sized deals were fewer, penalised by the tightening of financing conditions and a reduced number of investors.




    100%


                           27%                   28%
     80%
                                                             >€100mn      Neo-Retiro, Paris              Faubourg One, Paris
                                                              = 53%
     60%                   23%
                                                 25%



     40%                   21%                   17%                      Avant Seine-52 Hoche, Paris
                                                                                                         Haussmann-Courcelles, Paris



     20%                                                                                                                                  52-60 CE, Paris
                           22%                   21%


                           7%                     9%
                                                                           Portefeuille ANF, Lyon
       0%                                                                                                Carré Saint-Germain, Paris
                           2011                  2012



        €1-15mn          €15-50mn   €50-100mn   €100-200mn   >€200mn

                                                                          Portefeuille Mercure, France
*All types of products


                                                                                                                 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD                        10
PURCHASER NATIONALITY IN FRANCE                                                                          INVESTMENT




• French, mainly institutional investors, are still in the majority (57%).
• Foreign investors mainly positioned themselves on large transactions and made up for 43% of all acquisitions (compared
  with 38% in 2011)
• Sovereign Funds made a name for themselves in 2012 with 7 major acquisitions over €200m (representing €2.7bn).


   INVESTMENT BREAKDOWN BY NATIONALITY OF PURCHASERS*
                                           Asia
                           North America   4%
                                7%



               Middle East
                  14%


        Europe - other
             3%
                                                               France
                        UK                                      57%
                         3%
                       Norway
                         3%

                           Germany
                             9%



  *All types of products


                                                                                              CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD     11
CROSS-BORDER ACTIVITY                                                                                     INVESTMENT




• While the French are still in the lead, the foreign investor share went up from 38% in 2011 to 43% in 2012,
  accounting for €6.4bn.




                                                             EUROPE
       NORTH AMERICA
                                                                      40%
                                                                                              ASIA
                    16%
                                                                                                 10%




                                                                    MIDDLE EAST

                                                                                34%




                                                                                               CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD     12
FRANCE INVESTMENT BREAKDOWN                                                                                                      INVESTMENT




• Predominance of inner Paris: 20 transactions > €100m out of a total of 39 recorded in France.
• Volumes were boosted by large transactions carried out by foreign investors who targeted the most liquid and prestigious
  assets of the capital.
• Investor aversion to risk increased further, favouring the most secure assets.



FRANCE INVESTMENT BREAKDOWN*



                               Paris CBD
        Provinces                 25%
          26%
                                                                    Cité du Retiro, Paris 8




                                                     PARIS
                                                     = 41%
                                                                    23 Université, Paris 7    52-60 Champs-Élysées, Paris 8   Siège d’Amundi, Paris 15

                                           Rest of
                                            Paris
                                            16%
          Rest of
        Paris region
            33%
 *All type of products                                                                                                        116bis Champs-Élysées, Paris 8
                                                                    Faubourg One, Paris 8




                                                                                                                CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD                      13
RETAIL INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN FRANCE                                                                                                          INVESTMENT




• A 9% increase yoy and a 64% increase when compared with the yearly average of the last 10 years (€2.2bn).
• This performance was boosted by 12 acquisitions of retail or mixed assets over €100m, accounting for 52% of retail
  investments.
• High street retail accounted for 51% of all investments in retail.


  RETAIL INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN FRANCE (€ BN)                                                INVESTMENT ACTIVITY BY ASSET TYPE
 5                                                                                    100%   100%
                                                                                                                                   14%
                                                                                                             22%
 4                                                                                    80%    80%

                                                                                                                                   35%
 3                                                                                    60%    60%
                                                                                                             45%


 2                                                                                    40%    40%

                                                                                                                                   51%
                                                                                             20%
 1                                                                                    20%                    33%
      0,9

            0,8

                   1,2

                          1,9

                                 2,3

                                         4,8

                                               1,2

                                                      1,9

                                                              3,6

                                                                      3,3

                                                                             3,6


                                                                                              0%
 0                                                                                    0%
                                                                                                             2011                  2012
     2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


              Retail investments (€bn)               Share in total investments (%)             High street retail   Shopping centres     Retail warehousing
              10-year average (€2.2bn)




                                                                                                                           CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD                 14
INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN FRANCE                                                                                      INVESTMENT




• Investment volumes were just below the 10 year average (€1.4bn), but up by 44% on 2011.
• The strong performance was aided by the sale of 3 large logistics portfolios (accounting for 45% of all industrial
  investments).

   4                                                                                                        100%
                                                                                                                              €1.3BN
                                                                                                                             invested in industrial
                                                                                                            80%                            in 2012
   3


                                                                                                            60%

   2                                                                                                                                +44%
                                                                                                            40%

                                                                                                                                      yoy
   1
                                                                                                            20%
                        0,8


                                   2,6


                                             2,1




                                                            1,5


                                                                      0,6


                                                                                 0,7
        1,1


                0,9




                                                     3,2




                                                                                              0,9


                                                                                                     1,3
   0                                                                                                        0%
        2002   2003    2004       2005      2006     2007   2008      2009      2010          2011   2012



                      Industrial investments (€bn)           Share in total investments (%)

                                                             10-year average (€1.4bn)



                                                                                                                   CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD         15
THE INVESTMENT MARKET IN THE PROVINCES                                                                           INVESTMENT




• Volumes invested in the provinces remained stable compared with last year (€3.9bn)
• The Lyons market accounted for 22% of sums invested outside Ile-de-France.
• Activity in other large towns in the provinces was animated by some significant transactions.




EXAMPLES OF TRANSACTIONS MADE IN THE PROVINCES IN 2012

Type             Property                Location     Vendor                  Purchaser               Area sqm       Price
                                                                                                                     €mn
Retail           ANF portfolio         Lyons         ANF                     Grosvenor            -                >300

Retail           65 Croisette          Cannes        KanAm                   Thor Equities        1,800            90

Office           Oxygène tower         Lyons         Unibail-Rodamco         AEW Europe           30,000           130

Office           Lugdunum building     Lyons         Sogelym Dixence         Unofi Assurances     21,200           76.4

Logistics        Arrow portfolio                     Prologis                Blackstone           480,000          208




                                                                                                  CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD         16
INTEREST RATES                                                                                                     INVESTMENT




• Competition between investors for the best assets weighed on yields, the fall in which followed on from the fall in
  interest rates
• The spread between the OAT 10 year bonds and prime yields in Paris still remains attractive (227 bp as at 31/12).
• Growing distinction between prime and secondary markets

 PROPERTY YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES, AS AT 31/12

     7%

     6%

     5%
                                                                                                4.25%
     4%

     3%
                                                                                                227 bp
     2%
                                                                                                1.98%

     1%

                                                                                                0.19%
     0%

    -1 %

    -2 %
                q4 05       q4 06   q4 07     q4 08    q4 09        q4 10      q4 11      q4 12


             Prime office yield      3-month Euribor           10-year bonds           Spread


                                                                                                         CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    17
2013 FORECAST                                                INVESTMENT




    ?
 Predominance of EQUITY INVESTORS.


 LACK OF PRIME investment opportunities.


 DEBT MARKET potentially more favourable.


 LETTINGS MARKETS under pressure.


 Likely 10% FALL in INVESTMENT VOLUMES in 2013.




                                                   CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    18
INVESTMENT
                                                                 OFFICES




THE OFFICE LETTINGS MARKETS IN PARIS/ILE-DE-FRANCE




                                                     CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    19
2012 KEY FACTS                                                               INVESTMENT
                                                                               OFFICES




 TAKE-UP: An “average” year.

 Key role played by LARGE TRANSACTIONS.

 NEW AND REDEVELOPED properties make up for a significant share of take-up.

 Strong performance in the NORTHERN & SOUTHERN INNER SUBURBS.

 A less active PARIS INTRA-MUROS market.

 Decrease in activity in the FINANCE & ADMINISTRATION SECTORS.

 INCREASE IN SUPPLY available within 6 months.

 PRIME RENTS remain high.


                                                                   CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    20
TAKE-UP: AN “AVERAGE” YEAR                                                                                                                             INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                                                         OFFICES




• A 10% fall compared with 2011 and a 1% fall compared with the average of the last 10 years.
• Still, much higher take-up than in 2009 (+20%).

  TRENDS IN TAKE-UP IN PARIS/ILE-DE-FRANCE (SQM)



 3 000 000



 2 500 000



 2 000 000



 1 500 000



 1 000 000
             1 581 102


                         1 742 328


                                     1 937 638


                                                 2 049 452


                                                                   2 791 622


                                                                               2 656 443


                                                                                           2 357 403


                                                                                                       1 752 665


                                                                                                                   2 091 864


                                                                                                                               2 321 082


                                                                                                                                           2 098 351
   500 000



        0
             2002        2003        2004        2005             2006         2007        2008        2009        2010        2011        2012

                                                             2002-2011 average (2.13 million sqm)



                                                                                                                                           CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD      21
LARGE TRANSACTIONS PLAY KEY ROLE                                                                                            INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                              OFFICES




• 91 transactions > 4,000 sqm accounted for 1,044,379 sqm, i.e. 50% of total take-up.
• 10 transactions > 20,000 sqm accounted for 33% of total take-up > 4,000 sqm




TRANSACTION BREAKDOWN BY SURFACE AREA (IN SIZE)

 100%

                                                                                             EXAMPLES OF SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTIONS
  80%                         43%              42%                                                  CNET/ORANGE
        44%    46%    44%                                    45%                45%
                                         51%          49%            51%              50%
                                                                                                    • ECO-CAMPUS
                                                                                                    • Châtillon (92)
  60%                                                                                               • 70,000 sqm


                                                                                                     MINISTÈRE DE L’ÉCOLOGIE
  40%
                                                                                                    • TOUR ESPLANADE
                                                                                                    • PUTEAUX (92)
        56%    54%    56%     57%              58%           55%                55%
                                         49%          51%            49%              50%           • 53,600 sqm
  20%

                                                                                                    THALÈS
  0%                                                                                                • NEW VELIZY
                                                                                                    • VELIZY-VILLACOUBLAY (78)
        2002   2003   2004    2005   2006      2007   2008   2009   2010    2011      2012
                                                                                                    • 49,000 sqm

               Transactions <4,000 sqm                Transactions >4,000 sqm




                                                                                                                 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD     22
NEW PROPERTIES MAKE UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SHARE                                                                                                                                 INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                                                                                 OFFICES

Take-up > 4,000 sqm


• New/redeveloped properties accounted for 67% of all take-up >4,000 sqm.
• This figure includes a large number of turn key schemes (CNET, Thalès, Unilever, etc.).
• These projects show that occupiers are acting early to profit from the best possible leasing conditions



QUALITY OF TAKE-UP > 4,000 SQM                                                                                                                        TAKE-UP > 4,000 SQM ACCORDING
                                                                                                                                                      TO REASON FOR MOVING (IN SIZE)
  1 600 000                                                                                                                                     90%

                                                                                                                                                80%                       1%
  1 400 000
                                                                                                                                                                  10%
                                                                                                                                                70%
  1 200 000
                                                                                                                                                60%
  1 000 000                                                                                                                                                                      42%
                                                                                                                                                50%
    800 000
                                                                                                                                                40%
                                                                                                                                                            47%
    600 000
                                                                                                                                                30%
    400 000
                                                                                                                                                20%
                                                          1 419 972


                                                                          1 116 329


                                                                                      1 157 054




                                                                                                            1 073 748


                                                                                                                        1 050 667


                                                                                                                                    1 044 379
                                                                                                                                                              Consolidation
              698 123


                        800 297


                                      860 380


                                                881 965




                                                                                                  794 811




    200 000                                                                                                                                     10%           Cost cuttings
                                                                                                                                                              Relocalisation
         0                                                                                                                                      0%
                                                                                                                                                              Extension
              2002      2003         2004       2005      2006           2007         2008        2009      2010        2011        2012


                                  Take-up                             Share of new/refurbished office space leased




                                                                                                                                                                CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD         23
STRONG PERFORMANCE IN THE NORTHERN AND                                                                                                                                                                                                                          INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   OFFICES

 SOUTHERN INNER SUBURBS

 • The high increase in take-up in the southern suburbs (+141% on 2011) can be in part explained by CNET moving all
   staff to one roof in Châtillon, as this lettings transaction alone accounted for 48% of take-up in the sector in 2012.
 • The northern suburbs also performed well, with a 55% increase in take-up compared with the 10-year average and
   much more balanced activity than in 2011.

    TAKE-UP BY SUBMARKETS                                                                                                                                                                                                       SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTIONS IN THE
    2011/2012 (SQM)                                                                                                                                                                                                             NORTHERN SUBURBS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       SNCF
500 000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • CITY ONE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • SAINT-DENIS (93) / 22,000 sqm

400 000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        SNCF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • INNOVATIS 2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • SAINT-DENIS (93) / 20,000 sqm
300 000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       SIEMENS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • LE SISLEY
200 000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • SAINT-DENIS (93) / 18,710 sqm


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        BETC EURO RSCG
100 000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • EX-BÂTIMENT DES DOUANES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • PANTIN (93) / 16,000 sqm
          482 552
                    424 836


                              389 438
                                        337 740




                                                                      248 295
                                                                                231 586



                                                                                                    163 183




                                                                                                                                           145 159
                                                  278 655
                                                            289 044




                                                                                          188 236



                                                                                                              108 634
                                                                                                                        158 804




                                                                                                                                                     215 159
                                                                                                                                                               138 800


                                                                                                                                                                         235 646
                                                                                                                                  60 184




                                                                                                                                                                                            46 674
                                                                                                                                                                                                     56 320
                                                                                                                                                                                   99 167




                                                                                                                                                                                                              67 609
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       53 712
      0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                CONSEIL GENERAL 93
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • LE PAPILLON
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • BOBIGNY (93) / 15,000 sqm


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        SAMSUNG
                                                                                               2011                       2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • OVALIE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       • SAINT-OUEN (93) / 13,355 sqm
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD         24
A LESS ACTIVE PARIS INTRA-MUROS MARKET                                                                                           INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                                   OFFICES




• Take-up in central Paris fell by 24% over the course of a year.
• The Parisian market suffered from the fall in small and medium sized lettings transactions, as well as those over
  4,000 sqm (24 compared with 30 in 2011).
• The fall in take-up in central Paris can also be explained by the lack of quality availabilities.

                                                                                               SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTIONS IN PARIS
TAKE-UP IN INNER PARIS
                                                                                                       NEXITY
                                                                                                       • SOLSTYS
 100%                                                                                                  • PARIS 8 / 24,500 sqm
                                              18 %      17 %
        23 %                22 %   22 %                               22 %      21 %    24 %
                 33 %
                                                               29 %                                     BANQUE POPULAIRE
  80%                                                                                                  • PUSHED SLAB
                                              15 %                                                     • PARIS 13 / 19,000 sqm
        15 %                14 %   17 %                 25 %                            14 %
                                                                      23 %      26 %
  60%            13 %                                          18 %                                    RFF
                                                                                                       • EQUINOXE
                                                                                                       • PARIS 13 / 18,200 sqm

  40%                                                                                                   PPR
                            64 %              67 %                                                     • LAENNEC
        62 %                       61 %                                                 62 %
                 54 %                                   58 %          55 %                             • PARIS 7 / 16,460 sqm
                                                               53 %             53 %
  20%
                                                                                                       CRITEO
                                                                                                       • 32 BLANCHE
                                                                                                       • PARIS 9 / 10,000 sqm
   0%
         2003    2004       2005   2006       2007      2008   2009   2010      2011    2012            HOGAN LOVELLS
                                                                                                       • 17 AVENUE MATIGNON
                Paris CBD                 Paris Centre East           Paris Left Bank
                                                                                                       • PARIS 8 / 7,000 sqm


                                                                                                                    CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD       25
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IN THE FINANCE &
ADMINISTRATION SECTORS                                                                                                                      INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                                              OFFICES




• The economic and financial crisis weighed on the take-up of office space by the banking and insurance sector (157,489
  sqm of take-up in 2012 compared with an average of 246,900 sqm over the last 10 years).
• Due to the general elections in 2012, the number of transactions over 4,000 sqm in the administration sector fell to 11
  transactions in 2012 compared with an average of 18 per year between 2002 and 2011).
• The letting of the Esplanade tower by the Ministry of Ecology suggests that the French government’s cost cutting
  strategy is likely to mean further large-scale moves in the next few months.


TAKE-UP > 4,000 SQM ACCORDING TO ACTIVITY (IN SIZE)


                    2012                                          2011                                    MOYENNE 2002-2011
                                                                                                         2002-2011 AVERAGE

                   7%                                            10%                                                   6%
                           16%                                               18%                                                19%
                                        Administration                                   Administration          11%                          Administration
          12%
                                        Banque-Assurance                                 Banque-Assurance                                     Banque-Assurance
                                                         16%
                                        Communication                                    Communication                                        Communication
                                  15%
                                        Conseil                                          Conseil                                              Conseil
                                                                                   21%
                                        Industrie-Distribution                           Industrie-Distribution
                                                                                                             28%                              Industrie-Distribution
                                                                                                                                      25%
                                 5%     IT-Telecom         23%
                                                                                         IT-Telecom                                           IT-Telecom
           43%                          Services                                         Services                                             Services
                                  2%                                        8%
                                                                       4%                                              6% 5%




   Public sector        Banking-Insurance
                                -                Communication              Advisory     Manufacturing-Distribution
                                                                                                -                              IT      Services




                                                                                                                            CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD              26
INCREASE IN SUPPLY AVAILABLE WITHIN 6 MONTHS                                                                                                                                                                       INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     OFFICES




  • The amount of available supply went up in 2012 (+4%) due to the vacating of premises and several new lettings
    schemes being put on the market.
  • New and redeveloped stock went down by 3% over the course of a year and only represents 23% of the total supply on
    the market within a 6 month period.


SUPPLY AVAILABLE IN LE-DE-FRANCE (SQ.M)                                                                                                                ACCORDING TO BUSINESS DISTRICT

 4 500 000                                                                                                                                        9%         Southern                                 New/redeveloped
                                                                                                                                                                              36%
                                                                                                 8,0%                                                         suburbs
                                                                                                              7,9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Renovated
 4 000 000                                                                                                                            7,4%        8%      Paris Centre
                                     7,1%        7,1%                                                                     7,1%                                                19%
                                                                                                                                                              East                                    Secondary/to be renovated
                         6,7%                                                        6,6%
 3 500 000                                                   6,5%                                                                                 7%
             6,1%                                                                                                                                      Eastern suburbs        36%
                                                                         5,7%
 3 000 000                                                                                                                                        6%
                                                                                                                                                        Paris Left Bank       14%

 2 500 000                                                                                                                                        5%
                                                                                                                                                       Boucle de Seine          52%
 2 000 000                                                                                                                                        4%
                                                                                                                                                        Southwestern
                                                                                                                                                                              23%
                                                                                                                                                          suburbs
 1 500 000                                                                                                                                        3%
                                                                                                                                                           La Défense          26%
 1 000 000                                                                                                                                        2%
             2 772 090


                         3 117 655


                                     3 383 320


                                                 3 413 681


                                                             3 133 113


                                                                         2 794 676


                                                                                     3 290 764


                                                                                                  4 103 109


                                                                                                              4 066 053


                                                                                                                          3 720 902


                                                                                                                                      3 869 380
                                                                                                                                                            Northern
                                                                                                                                                                               26%
  500 000                                                                                                                                         1%         suburbs


        0                                                                                                                                         0%            WBD             17%

             2002        2003        2004        2005        2006        2007        2008        2009         2010        2011        2012
                                                                                                                                                            Paris CBD           18%


                                        Supply (sqm)                                             Vacancy rate (%)                                                         0         100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000




                                                                                                                                                                                                  CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD               27
PRIME RENTS REMAIN HIGH                                                                                                                                                       INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                                                                                OFFICES




• The lack of quality supply was accentuated in 2012, encouraging tenants with a high profit margin to pay the highest
  prices for the last availabilities in the best districts of the capital.
• There are still big differences in rental values, whilst incentive measures have been a key point of negotiation
  between occupiers and landlords.


RENTAL VALUES IN ILE-DE-FRANCE
                                                                                                                                               EXAMPLES OF TRANSACTIONS
                                                                       820                                                   823               +/- €800/sqm/yr
  800 €/m²
                 760                                                                                                                                  ROLAND BERGER
                                                                                                                                                      • LE MAGISTERE
                                                                                            700                                                       • PARIS 8 / 7,390 sqm
                                       662


                 595
                                                                                                                                                      HOGAN LOVELLS
                                                                                                                  581                                 • 17 AVENUE MATIGNON
                                       550                                                                                                            • PARIS 8 / 7,000 sqm
                                                                                                                             540
                 507
                            495                                                   539
  500 €/m²
                                                                                                                             512
                                                 440
                                                                                                                                                      SJ BERWIN
                                                                                                                                                      • OZONE
                                                                                                                                                      • PARIS 8 / 3,500 sqm
                                                                                  354                             357
                 319                                                                                                         327
                                                            295                                                                                       AT KEARNEY
                                                                                                                                                      • 23-25 RUE DE L’UNIVERSITÉ
                                                                                                                                                      • PARIS 7 / 2,000 sqm
  200 €/m²
                2002       2003       2004       2005      2006       2007       2008       2009      2010       2011       2012

                       Paris CBD: prime rent (€/sqm/yr)                           Paris CBD: average rent (€/sqm/yr)
                       Hauts de Seine: prime rent (€/sqm/yr)                      Hauts de Seine: average rent (€/sqm/yr)




  (1) Prime rent: average of the 5 highest transactions in terms of headline rent >1,000 sq. m. in a year
  (2) Average rent: average rental values (headline rents mentioned in transactions) all areas included, refurbished or second-hand premises                 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD           28
INCREASE IN FUTURE SUPPLY                                                                                                                     INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                                                OFFICES




• The market will be in over-supply in 2013 and is likely to remain so in 2014. This is due to not all availability having been
  taken-up in 2012.
• The amount of future supply depends greatly on the geographical sector and the specific business district, with
  70% of supply concentrated in the Western Crescent (Western Business District, La Défense, South Western
  Suburbs, Boucle de Seine).

FUTURE SUPPLY IN ILE-DE-FRANCE (SQ.M)                                                                            GREOGRAPHICAL BREAKDOWN


                         1 525 731 m²                                                                                           6%
                                                                                                                           7%              20%
                                                                                                                     8%

                                                                                                                    9%
                                                                                                                                                 20%
                                                                                        946 445 m²
                                                                      799 482 m²                                         13%
                                                                                        701 013 m²                                   17%

                                                                                                  6%                       Northern suburbs
                                                                                           11%
                                                                                         11%                               La Defense
                                                                                                       18%
                                                                        474 652
                                                                                                          17%              Western business districts

                                                                                         12%                               Boucle de Seine
                             2013                                        2014                    12%       13%
                                                                                                                           South Western suburbs
    Volume of secure future supply > 10,000 sq.m           Volume of likely future supply > 10,000 sq.m                    Eastern suburbs

                                                                                                                           Paris non CBD
    Average > 10,000 sq.m take -up over the last 5 years   Average > 5,000 sq.m take -up over the last 5 years             Paris CBD




                                                                                                                           CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD             29
SUMMARY                                                                                                                                                            INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                                                                     OFFICES




  OFFICE LETTINGS KEY INDICATORS

                                                                                                              2011                              2012               TREND

  Take-up (sqm)                                                                                          2,321,082                           2,098,351               ▼

  Take-up > 4,000 sqm (sq.m)                                                                             1,050,667                           1,044,379               ►
  Take-up > 4,000 sqm (sq.m)
                                                                                                             66%                               67%                   ►
   – share of new office space

  Number of transactions > 4,000 sqm                                                                           92                               91                   ►

  Supply available within 6 months (sqm)                                                                 3,720,902                           3,869,380               ▲

  Vacancy rate (%)                                                                                           7.1%                              7.4%                  ▲

  Prime rent (1) (€/excl. taxes & charges/yr)                                                                 838                              838                   ►

  Average rent (2) (€/excl. taxes & charges/yr)                                                               364                              356                   ▼


(1) Prime rent: average of the 5 highest transactions in terms of headline rent >1,000 sq. m. in a year
(2) Average rent: average rental values (headline rents mentioned in transactions) all areas included, refurbished or second-hand premises


                                                                                                                                                         CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    30
2013 FORECAST                                                                           INVESTMENT
                                                                                          OFFICES




     ?
 Poor ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.


 Further SOCIAL TENSIONS are likely to weigh on take-up.


 Companies will still seek EFFICIENCY and REDUCTION OF COSTS.


 Success of WELL-LOCATED districts in the suburbs offering NEW AND ECONOMICAL PREMISES


 More significant INCENTIVE MEASURES in secondary markets.


 Stable rental values in ESTABLISHED SECTORS with a limited office supply.


                                                                              CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    31
LARGE
                                                GRANDS
                                              WAREHOUSES
                                              INVESTMENT
                                               ENTREPÔTS



Jean-Paul Deheeger
Head of the Industrial Department



LARGE WAREHOUSE MARKET IN FRANCE




                                    CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    32
TAKE-UP > 5 000 sq.m                                                                                                                                                                              LARGE
                                                                                                                                                                                               WAREHOUSES
                                                                                                                                                                                               INVESTMENT

In France

   3 000 000


                                                                                                                             2 600 000   2 600 000

   2 500 000                                                                                                                                                                       2 400 000

                                                                                                                 2 200 000

                                                                                                    2 000 000
   2 000 000
                             1 800 000                                                                                                                                                          1 800 000
                                                                                                                                                                     1 760 000

                                                                                                                                                         1 600 000
                                                                            1 500 000
   1 500 000



                                                     1 000 000
   1 000 000




       500 000




                  0
                                2002                    2003                    2004                    2005      2006        2007        2008             2009       2010           2011        2012

                                                                                                                    France                           Ile-de-France




Source: Cushman & Wakefield/Entrepôts > 5 000 m², incluant opérations en compte-propre et ventes utilisateurs.                                                                   CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD        33
TAKE-UP > 5 000 sq.m                                                                                                                                                                 LARGE
                                                                                                                                                                                  WAREHOUSES
                                                                                                                                                                                  INVESTMENT

In Ile-de-France

   1 200 000



                                                                                                                 1 000 000
   1 000 000


                                                                                                                                                                        850 000
                                                                                                                                                           790 000
       800 000
                              740 000
                                                                                                     690 000                 700 000
                                                                                                                                       640 000   630 000
       600 000                                                                                                                                                                     560 000


                                                                             450 000

       400 000


                                                     250 000

       200 000




                  0
                                2002                    2003                    2004                   2005        2006       2007      2008      2009      2010         2011       2012




Source: Cushman & Wakefield/Entrepôts > 5 000 m², incluant opérations en compte-propre et ventes utilisateurs.                                                       CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD       34
CHARACTERISTICS OF TAKE-UP                                                                          GRANDS
                                                                                                     LARGE
                                                                                                  INVESTMENT
                                                                                                   ENTREPÔTS
                                                                                                  WAREHOUSES

In France (transaction size)



Geographical Breakdown – 2012                         Geographical Breakdown – 2011

                                 Ile-de-France                                            Ile-de-France

        3%                       Rhône-Alpes                                              Rhône-Alpes
               9%
                                                           2%      13%
                                 Nord-Pas-de-Calais                                       Nord-Pas-de-Calais
        5%                                             3% 3%
                           31%   PACA                                         33%         PACA
       6%
                                 Pays de la Loire       0%                                Pays de la Loire
  3%                                                         4%
  1%                             Burgandy                                                 Burgundy
       8%                                                    11%
                                 Normandy                                                 Normandy

                     20%         Alsace-Lorraine                           14%            Alsace-Lorraine
             14%
                                                                   17%
                                 Centre                                                   Centre

                                 Other                                                    Other




                                                                                    CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD        35
CHARACTERISTICS OF TAKE-UP                                                                                LARGE
                                                                                                       WAREHOUSES
                                                                                                       INVESTMENT

In France (transaction size)



Size Bracket – 2012                                    Size Bracket – 2011


                                  5 000 - 10 000 m²                                         5 000 - 10 000 m²

                      18%                                                    14%


      37%                         10 000 - 20 000 m²                                        10 000 - 20 000 m²
                                                             42%


                                                                                   28%
                            25%   20 000 - 30 000 m²                                        20 000 - 30 000 m²



              20%                                                      16%
                                  > 30 000 m²                                               > 30 000 m²




                                                                                         CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD        36
LARGE
                                                                                                        GRANDS
CHARACTERISTICS OF TAKE-UP                                                                            WAREHOUSES
                                                                                                      INVESTMENT
                                                                                                       ENTREPÔTS

In France (transaction size)



Type of Activity – 2012                                  Type of Activity – 2011


                                3PL                                                          3PL
                                                                        8%
            14%

                          34%

                                In-House Logisticians                              47%       In-House Logisticians
                                (Distribution sector)                                        (Distribution sector)

                                                                45%

          52%
                                In-House Logisticians                                        In-House Logisticians
                                (Manufacturing sector)                                       (Manufacturing sector)




                                                                                         CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD          37
LARGE
EXAMPLES OF SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTIONS                                                                          GRANDS
                                                                                                            WAREHOUSES
                                                                                                            INVESTMENT
                                                                                                             ENTREPÔTS

Transactions > 10 000 sq.m carried out in France in 2012

MARKET               NEW TENANT                  ADDRESS                                                   SURFACE AREA
                                                                                                                    Sq.m
Ile-de-France        INTERMARCHÉ                 Parc d’activités Jean Monnet/Vert-Saint-Denis (77)                94 300

Nord-Pas-de-Calais   AMAZON.FR                   Lauwin-Planque (59)                                               90 000

Nord-Pas-de-Calais   OXYLANE (DÉCATHLON)         Lieu-dit Terres d’Epinoy/Rouvignies (59)                          57 000

Rhône-Alpes          FIDUCIAL OFFICE SOLUTIONS   Satolas-et-Bonce (38)                                             45 000

Normandy             SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC          ZAC du Long Buisson/Guichainville (27)                            43 000

Burgundy             AMAZON.FR                   Distripôle/Sevrey (71)                                            40 000

Ile-de-France        INDESIT                     ZAC Parisud/Combs-la-Ville (77)                                   40 000

Alsace               SCAPALSACE                  ZA de Niederhergheim (68)                                         30 000

Pays de la Loire     SYSTÈME U                   Vendéopôle/Fontenay-le-Comte (85)                                 27 400

Rhône-Alpes          CONFORAMA                   ZA Lafayette/Saint-Georges-d’Espéranche (38)                      25 200

Champagne            EURODIF                     Parc logistique de l’Aube/Troyes (10)                             24 000

Nord-Pas-de-Calais   IM LOGISTIQUE               Distripôle/Houplines (59)                                         22 500

Ile-de-France        OTELO                       Avenue du Fief/Saint-Ouen-l’Aumône (95)                           18 300

PACA                 PROLOG                      Distriport/Fos-sur-Mer (13)                                       14 500


                                                                                                  CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    38
LARGE
RENTS                                                           GRANDS
                                                              WAREHOUSES
                                                              INVESTMENT
                                                               ENTREPÔTS

Prime rents as at end 2012



      PRIME RENTS OF LARGE WAREHOUSES (€/sq.m/yr)




                                                    CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    39
OVERVIEW OF 2012                                                                         GRANDS
                                                                                          LARGE
                                                                                       INVESTMENT
                                                                                        ENTREPÔTS
                                                                                       WAREHOUSES

Large Warehouse Market in France



• 1.8 million sq.m of take-up France, representing a 25 % fall
  compared with 2011.

• The four hubs of the north-south axis concentrated 73% of total
  take-up, a figure similar to that recorded in 2011.

• 560,000 sq.m of take-up in Ile-de-France: a sharp 34 % decrease
  compared with 2011, representing the lowest level of take-up since 2004.

• 360,000 sq.m of take-up in the Lyons region, the only market on
  the north-south axis to have performed well in 2012.

• Stability of prime rents: slightly over 50 €/sq.m/yr in Ile-de-France.

• Slight fall in available supply which can be explained by the take-up of
  new and well-located secondary assets, as well as by the slowdown in
  forward sale developments.



                                                                             CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    40
OUTLOOK FOR 2013
                                                LARGE
                                               GRANDS
                                             WAREHOUSES
                                             INVESTMENT
                                              ENTREPÔTS

Large Warehouse Market in France




                                   CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    41
RETAIL
                                                 INVESTMENT
                                                 COMMERCES




THE RETAIL LETTINGS MARKET IN FRANCE




                                       CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    42
2012 KEY FACTS                                                                             INVESTMENT
                                                                                              RETAIL




  A large INCREASE in RETAIL STOCK

  Higher QUALITY retail developments

   Shopping centres: development of new, innovative and exciting concepts to stand out from the
  competition and to create a BUZZ in the market place

  The LUXURY SECTOR has strengthened the attractiveness of the high street

  A LARGE GULF between prime and secondary

  Competition has been accentuated by the boom of E-COMMERCE

   ILLADAPTED REGLEMENTATION surrounding retail

  A CHANGING retail property market

                                                                                 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    43
FRENCH RETAIL PROPERTY STOCK                                                                                          INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                         RETAIL

An increase in supply

  Retail property stock in France

                                                                                                             GROWTH IN TOTAL
   LOCATION                                  NUMBER OF SITES       NUMBER OF SHOPS     TOTAL AREA(SQM)
                                                                                                             AREA - 2011/2012 (%)

                                                                      HIGH STREET₁

   Provinces                                               209         112,306            13,572,138                  0 (0.1)

   Ile-de-France                                            83          26,154             4,007,729                    0 (0)

  Total                                                    292         138,460            17,579,867                   0 (0)

                                                                   SHOPPING CENTRES²

   Provinces                                               746          25,673            14,634,982                 1.3 (1.1)

   Ile-de-France                                           187          9,799              4,988,392                 1.2 (2.2)

  Total                                                    933         35,472             19,623,374                1.3 (1.4)

                                                                     RETAIL PARKS³

   Provinces                                               923          34,943            29,006,821                 1.5 (0.8)

   Ile-de-France                                           132          4,919              4,189,721                 3.0 (1.8)

  Total                                                    1,055       39,862             33,196,542                1.7 (0.9)
*Source: Cushman & Wakefield as at 1st January 2013                                                            (X): Annual growth 2011/2012 in %
(1) Comprising at least 50 sites
(2) Shopping centre comprising at least 10 sites
(3) Out of town retail zone comprising at least 10 sites
                                                                                                         CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD               44
A LARGE INCREASE IN RETAIL STOCK                                                                                    INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                         RETAIL

  Recent and forthcoming openings



          2011 – OPENINGS IN SQM                    2012 – OPENINGS IN SQM                2013 – ESTIMATED OPENINGS IN SQM*




                                                                         892 745

                               798 333




       493 990
                                                  430 341




                                                                                                                          884,140
                                                                                                      488,289
           354,191




                                  316,360




                                                     260,163




                                                                            547,646


   Shopping centres           Retail parks     Shopping centres         Retail parks         Shopping centres         Retail parks


                                                                                       *As at 1st January 2013



        Opening announced on the 1st January       Effective openings


Source: Cushman & Wakefield                                                                                 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD      45
A LARGE INCREASE IN RETAIL STOCK                                                                                 INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                    RETAIL

2012: A significant year for postponed retail projects

  1600000



  1400000                                                             72 130                Remainder
                                                                                            Moved back to 2015
                                                                     214 944
                                                                                            Moved back to 2014
  1200000
                                                                                            Moved back to 2013
                                                                                            Developments completed in 2012
  1000000
                                                                     267 160



   800000
                               1 449 443      Shopping centres +
                                                 Retail parks
   600000                                      1,323,086 sq. m.

                                                                                          Shopping centres +
                                                                     893 209                 Retail parks
   400000                                                             (62 %)                807,809 sq. m.



   200000



           0
                              2012 Forecast                  Breakdown of 2012 forecast



Source: Cushman & Wakefield
                                                                                                    CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD       46
HIGHER QUALITY RETAIL DEVELOPMENTS                                                                    INVESTMENT
                                                                                                         RETAIL

New emblematic projects and openings




So Ouest, Levallois-Perret (92)        Beaugrenelle, Paris (75015)




L’Atoll, Beaucouzé (49)                L’Aire des Moissons, Saint-Parres-aux-Tertres (10)


                                                                                            CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD    47
MAJOR OPENINGS AND FORTHCOMING PROJECTS                                                               INVESTMENT
                                                                                                         RETAIL

Examples of new shopping centres


 2012 OPENINGS
   TOWN                        DEVELOPMENT             TYPE                     AREA SQM    260,163 SQM
 Lyon (69)                    Confluence              Creation                     52,000         of openings in France
                                                                                                                in 2012
 Levallois-Perret (92)        So Ouest                Extension-redevelopment      46,770

 La-Chapelle-Saint-Luc (10)   L’Escapade              Transfer-Extension           16,700

 Montreuil (93)               Grand Angle             Creation                     15,000
                                                                                                          - 27%
 Claye-Souilly (77)           Les Sentiers de Claye   Extension                    13,000

 Saint-Herblain (44)          Atlantis                Extension                     9,800
                                                                                                          YOY


2013 PROJECTS
  TOWN                         DEVELOPMENT             TYPE                     AREA SQM
 Tremblay-en-France (93)      Aéroville               Creation                     65,000

 Villeneuve-la-Garenne (92)   Bongarde                Creation                     63,000

 Paris (75015)                Beaugrenelle            Extension-redevelopment      45,000

 Epinay-sur-Seine (93)        L’Ilo                   Redevelopment                36,700

 Caen (14)                    Les Rives de l’Orne     Creation                     28,700

 Cherbourg (50)               Les Eleis               Creation                     15,400



Source: Cushman & Wakefield
                                                                                            CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD     48
French Property Markets 2012 Summary & 2013 Outlook
French Property Markets 2012 Summary & 2013 Outlook
French Property Markets 2012 Summary & 2013 Outlook
French Property Markets 2012 Summary & 2013 Outlook
French Property Markets 2012 Summary & 2013 Outlook
French Property Markets 2012 Summary & 2013 Outlook
French Property Markets 2012 Summary & 2013 Outlook
French Property Markets 2012 Summary & 2013 Outlook
French Property Markets 2012 Summary & 2013 Outlook
French Property Markets 2012 Summary & 2013 Outlook
French Property Markets 2012 Summary & 2013 Outlook
French Property Markets 2012 Summary & 2013 Outlook

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French Property Markets 2012 Summary & 2013 Outlook

  • 1. FRENCH PROPERTY MARKETS 2012 SUMMARY & 2013 OUTLOOK 9th JANUARY 2013
  • 2. INTRODUCTION INVESTMENT INTRODUCTION CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 1
  • 3. ECONOMIC CONTEXT AND FORECASTS INTRODUCTION INVESTMENT GLOBAL ECONOMY / GDP GROWTH (%) TRENDS IN FRENCH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE * 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 11,0% Euro Zone 1.4 - 0.4 0.0 1.3 10,5% Germany 3.1 1.0 0.6 1.7 10,0% France 1.7 0.1 0.4 1.3 9,5% United Kingdom 0.8 - 0.2 0.4 1.1 9,0% USA 1.7 2.2 1.9 2.8 8,5% China 9.3 7.7 8.5 7.8 8,0% q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 Global 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.6 2011 2012 2013** Sources: Crédit Agricole and OCDE / *Forecast. Source: INSEE / * Metropolitan France / **Forecast • After relative improvements during 2011, the global economic climate for both developed and emerging countries deteriorated in 2012. • French growth remained sluggish in 2012, a year which was also marked by the general elections. Industry in particular, was hit the hardest and saw the multiplication of restructuring plans. • Whilst household consumption remained resilient somehow, it is no longer the driver of growth and is expected to decline further due to the deterioration of the job market. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 2
  • 4. EFFECTS OF THE CRISIS ON THE FRENCH PROPERTY MARKET INTRODUCTION INVESTMENT • A longer economic crisis than expected. • The real estate market has felt the impact of the crisis since 2008. Savings • 2009 was the year of the recession and the accentuation of the public deficit, marking the lowest point in the rental and investment property markets. Visibility • After a slight recovery in 2010, the real estate market saw the most growth in 2011: the regaining of confidence was helped by government measures taken both in the Security Eurozone and USA to stabilize the global economy. • Further decline in 2012: the debt crisis remained unresolved and the French elections resulted in a decrease in investor and company confidence. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 3
  • 5. OVERVIEW OF THE 2012 FRENCH INVESTMENT MARKET INTRODUCTION INVESTMENT • A total of €14.9bn was invested in France in 2012 representing a decrease of 10% when compared to the previous year and a volume close to the 10 year average (-2 %). Large transactions, which mostly occurred in Paris, limited the decline in activity. • With take-up of 2.1 million sq.m of office space in Ile-de France, demand has fallen by 10% compared with 2011. There was lower appetite for small and medium sized areas although the Parisian market was offset by the completion of several large-scale operations. • With1.8 million sq.m of warehouse space let or sold to occupiers in France in 2012, take-up was down by 25% on the previous year. The logistics market has suffered due to the wait and see attitude of occupiers as well as the poor performance of the majority of the large logistics hubs in France • The arrival of a number of major foreign brands to France, the rapid expansion of large retailers and the dynamism of the luxury sector have been of benefit to zone A locations and to prime markets. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 4
  • 6. INVESTMENT PROPERTY INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN FRANCE CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 5
  • 7. 2012 KEY FACTS INVESTMENT --- +++  Moderate FALL in investment volume.  LARGE TRANSACTIONS played a key role.  Less active OFFICE LETTINGS  Increasing presence of MARKET. INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS.  Contrasting performances in the  Domination of PARIS INTRA- different business districts of ILE-DE- MUROS. FRANCE.  RETAIL: targeted sectors performed well.  Rebound of the LOGISTICS market. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 6
  • 8. INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN FRANCE (€ BN) INVESTMENT • A total of €14.9bn was invested in France in 2012 (418 transactions), €11bn of which was invested in Ile-de-France. €14.9BN • A 10% fall in investment volumes over the course of the year, or a 2 % fall when compared with invested in France the yearly average of the last 10 years (€15.2bn). in 2012 • Investment volume still greatly exceeded its low point of 2009 (€7.8bn). 30 -10% 25 yoy 20 15 10 5 11,1 17,5 24,4 28,5 13,0 11,1 16,5 14,9 12,2 9,8 7,8 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 10-year average (€15.2bn) CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 7
  • 9. OFFICE INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN FRANCE INVESTMENT • A 19% fall yoy, or an 11% fall in comparison with the yearly average of the last 10 years (€11.2bn). • Accounting for 67% of all investments, the share of office investments was down slightly on last year, due to the fall in transactions in the region of €50-100m. 25 100% 20 80% 84% 15 67% 60% 61% 10 40% 5 20% 14,0 18,2 19,5 10,3 10,0 10,2 12,3 7,7 5,3 8,0 6,7 0 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Office investments (€bn) Share in total investments (%) 10-year average (€11.2bn) CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 8
  • 10. OFFICE INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN PARIS/ILE DE FRANCE INVESTMENT • Investment volumes were down by 32% in the “Western Crescent” (Western Business District, La Défense and the South-Western Suburbs) in 2012. • Certain well-located markets in the suburbs performed well. Boasting quality office buildings at competitive rents and with excellent transport links, these sectors provide a good alternative for office lettings. INVESTMENT BREAKDOWN (€ VOLUME) 7% 2012 1% 2011 8% 9% 7% 7% Start – Guyancourt Urbagreen – Joinville-le-Pont 2% 2% 4% 47% 10% 60% 11% 4% 7% 11% 2% Inner Paris Liberté II – Charenton-Le-Pont City Zen – Bois-Colombes Inner Paris La Defense La Defense Western business districts Western business districts Boucle de Seine Boucle de Seine Southwestern suburbs Southwestern suburbs Southern suburbs Southern suburbs Eastern suburbs Eastern suburbs Northern suburbs Northern suburbs Terra Nova IV – Montreuil Rest of Paris region Rest of Paris region CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 9
  • 11. INVESTMENT DEAL ANALYSIS INVESTMENT • Out of a total of 418 transactions, 39 were over €100m, representing 53% of investments (9% of the total number). • Medium-sized deals were fewer, penalised by the tightening of financing conditions and a reduced number of investors. 100% 27% 28% 80% >€100mn Neo-Retiro, Paris Faubourg One, Paris = 53% 60% 23% 25% 40% 21% 17% Avant Seine-52 Hoche, Paris Haussmann-Courcelles, Paris 20% 52-60 CE, Paris 22% 21% 7% 9% Portefeuille ANF, Lyon 0% Carré Saint-Germain, Paris 2011 2012 €1-15mn €15-50mn €50-100mn €100-200mn >€200mn Portefeuille Mercure, France *All types of products CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 10
  • 12. PURCHASER NATIONALITY IN FRANCE INVESTMENT • French, mainly institutional investors, are still in the majority (57%). • Foreign investors mainly positioned themselves on large transactions and made up for 43% of all acquisitions (compared with 38% in 2011) • Sovereign Funds made a name for themselves in 2012 with 7 major acquisitions over €200m (representing €2.7bn). INVESTMENT BREAKDOWN BY NATIONALITY OF PURCHASERS* Asia North America 4% 7% Middle East 14% Europe - other 3% France UK 57% 3% Norway 3% Germany 9% *All types of products CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 11
  • 13. CROSS-BORDER ACTIVITY INVESTMENT • While the French are still in the lead, the foreign investor share went up from 38% in 2011 to 43% in 2012, accounting for €6.4bn. EUROPE NORTH AMERICA 40% ASIA 16% 10% MIDDLE EAST 34% CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 12
  • 14. FRANCE INVESTMENT BREAKDOWN INVESTMENT • Predominance of inner Paris: 20 transactions > €100m out of a total of 39 recorded in France. • Volumes were boosted by large transactions carried out by foreign investors who targeted the most liquid and prestigious assets of the capital. • Investor aversion to risk increased further, favouring the most secure assets. FRANCE INVESTMENT BREAKDOWN* Paris CBD Provinces 25% 26% Cité du Retiro, Paris 8 PARIS = 41% 23 Université, Paris 7 52-60 Champs-Élysées, Paris 8 Siège d’Amundi, Paris 15 Rest of Paris 16% Rest of Paris region 33% *All type of products 116bis Champs-Élysées, Paris 8 Faubourg One, Paris 8 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 13
  • 15. RETAIL INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN FRANCE INVESTMENT • A 9% increase yoy and a 64% increase when compared with the yearly average of the last 10 years (€2.2bn). • This performance was boosted by 12 acquisitions of retail or mixed assets over €100m, accounting for 52% of retail investments. • High street retail accounted for 51% of all investments in retail. RETAIL INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN FRANCE (€ BN) INVESTMENT ACTIVITY BY ASSET TYPE 5 100% 100% 14% 22% 4 80% 80% 35% 3 60% 60% 45% 2 40% 40% 51% 20% 1 20% 33% 0,9 0,8 1,2 1,9 2,3 4,8 1,2 1,9 3,6 3,3 3,6 0% 0 0% 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Retail investments (€bn) Share in total investments (%) High street retail Shopping centres Retail warehousing 10-year average (€2.2bn) CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 14
  • 16. INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN FRANCE INVESTMENT • Investment volumes were just below the 10 year average (€1.4bn), but up by 44% on 2011. • The strong performance was aided by the sale of 3 large logistics portfolios (accounting for 45% of all industrial investments). 4 100% €1.3BN invested in industrial 80% in 2012 3 60% 2 +44% 40% yoy 1 20% 0,8 2,6 2,1 1,5 0,6 0,7 1,1 0,9 3,2 0,9 1,3 0 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Industrial investments (€bn) Share in total investments (%) 10-year average (€1.4bn) CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 15
  • 17. THE INVESTMENT MARKET IN THE PROVINCES INVESTMENT • Volumes invested in the provinces remained stable compared with last year (€3.9bn) • The Lyons market accounted for 22% of sums invested outside Ile-de-France. • Activity in other large towns in the provinces was animated by some significant transactions. EXAMPLES OF TRANSACTIONS MADE IN THE PROVINCES IN 2012 Type Property Location Vendor Purchaser Area sqm Price €mn Retail ANF portfolio Lyons ANF Grosvenor - >300 Retail 65 Croisette Cannes KanAm Thor Equities 1,800 90 Office Oxygène tower Lyons Unibail-Rodamco AEW Europe 30,000 130 Office Lugdunum building Lyons Sogelym Dixence Unofi Assurances 21,200 76.4 Logistics Arrow portfolio Prologis Blackstone 480,000 208 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 16
  • 18. INTEREST RATES INVESTMENT • Competition between investors for the best assets weighed on yields, the fall in which followed on from the fall in interest rates • The spread between the OAT 10 year bonds and prime yields in Paris still remains attractive (227 bp as at 31/12). • Growing distinction between prime and secondary markets PROPERTY YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES, AS AT 31/12 7% 6% 5% 4.25% 4% 3% 227 bp 2% 1.98% 1% 0.19% 0% -1 % -2 % q4 05 q4 06 q4 07 q4 08 q4 09 q4 10 q4 11 q4 12 Prime office yield 3-month Euribor 10-year bonds Spread CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 17
  • 19. 2013 FORECAST INVESTMENT ?  Predominance of EQUITY INVESTORS.  LACK OF PRIME investment opportunities.  DEBT MARKET potentially more favourable.  LETTINGS MARKETS under pressure.  Likely 10% FALL in INVESTMENT VOLUMES in 2013. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 18
  • 20. INVESTMENT OFFICES THE OFFICE LETTINGS MARKETS IN PARIS/ILE-DE-FRANCE CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 19
  • 21. 2012 KEY FACTS INVESTMENT OFFICES  TAKE-UP: An “average” year.  Key role played by LARGE TRANSACTIONS.  NEW AND REDEVELOPED properties make up for a significant share of take-up.  Strong performance in the NORTHERN & SOUTHERN INNER SUBURBS.  A less active PARIS INTRA-MUROS market.  Decrease in activity in the FINANCE & ADMINISTRATION SECTORS.  INCREASE IN SUPPLY available within 6 months.  PRIME RENTS remain high. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 20
  • 22. TAKE-UP: AN “AVERAGE” YEAR INVESTMENT OFFICES • A 10% fall compared with 2011 and a 1% fall compared with the average of the last 10 years. • Still, much higher take-up than in 2009 (+20%). TRENDS IN TAKE-UP IN PARIS/ILE-DE-FRANCE (SQM) 3 000 000 2 500 000 2 000 000 1 500 000 1 000 000 1 581 102 1 742 328 1 937 638 2 049 452 2 791 622 2 656 443 2 357 403 1 752 665 2 091 864 2 321 082 2 098 351 500 000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002-2011 average (2.13 million sqm) CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 21
  • 23. LARGE TRANSACTIONS PLAY KEY ROLE INVESTMENT OFFICES • 91 transactions > 4,000 sqm accounted for 1,044,379 sqm, i.e. 50% of total take-up. • 10 transactions > 20,000 sqm accounted for 33% of total take-up > 4,000 sqm TRANSACTION BREAKDOWN BY SURFACE AREA (IN SIZE) 100% EXAMPLES OF SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTIONS 80% 43% 42% CNET/ORANGE 44% 46% 44% 45% 45% 51% 49% 51% 50% • ECO-CAMPUS • Châtillon (92) 60% • 70,000 sqm MINISTÈRE DE L’ÉCOLOGIE 40% • TOUR ESPLANADE • PUTEAUX (92) 56% 54% 56% 57% 58% 55% 55% 49% 51% 49% 50% • 53,600 sqm 20% THALÈS 0% • NEW VELIZY • VELIZY-VILLACOUBLAY (78) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 • 49,000 sqm Transactions <4,000 sqm Transactions >4,000 sqm CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 22
  • 24. NEW PROPERTIES MAKE UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SHARE INVESTMENT OFFICES Take-up > 4,000 sqm • New/redeveloped properties accounted for 67% of all take-up >4,000 sqm. • This figure includes a large number of turn key schemes (CNET, Thalès, Unilever, etc.). • These projects show that occupiers are acting early to profit from the best possible leasing conditions QUALITY OF TAKE-UP > 4,000 SQM TAKE-UP > 4,000 SQM ACCORDING TO REASON FOR MOVING (IN SIZE) 1 600 000 90% 80% 1% 1 400 000 10% 70% 1 200 000 60% 1 000 000 42% 50% 800 000 40% 47% 600 000 30% 400 000 20% 1 419 972 1 116 329 1 157 054 1 073 748 1 050 667 1 044 379 Consolidation 698 123 800 297 860 380 881 965 794 811 200 000 10% Cost cuttings Relocalisation 0 0% Extension 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Take-up Share of new/refurbished office space leased CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 23
  • 25. STRONG PERFORMANCE IN THE NORTHERN AND INVESTMENT OFFICES SOUTHERN INNER SUBURBS • The high increase in take-up in the southern suburbs (+141% on 2011) can be in part explained by CNET moving all staff to one roof in Châtillon, as this lettings transaction alone accounted for 48% of take-up in the sector in 2012. • The northern suburbs also performed well, with a 55% increase in take-up compared with the 10-year average and much more balanced activity than in 2011. TAKE-UP BY SUBMARKETS SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTIONS IN THE 2011/2012 (SQM) NORTHERN SUBURBS SNCF 500 000 • CITY ONE • SAINT-DENIS (93) / 22,000 sqm 400 000 SNCF • INNOVATIS 2 • SAINT-DENIS (93) / 20,000 sqm 300 000 SIEMENS • LE SISLEY 200 000 • SAINT-DENIS (93) / 18,710 sqm BETC EURO RSCG 100 000 • EX-BÂTIMENT DES DOUANES • PANTIN (93) / 16,000 sqm 482 552 424 836 389 438 337 740 248 295 231 586 163 183 145 159 278 655 289 044 188 236 108 634 158 804 215 159 138 800 235 646 60 184 46 674 56 320 99 167 67 609 53 712 0 CONSEIL GENERAL 93 • LE PAPILLON • BOBIGNY (93) / 15,000 sqm SAMSUNG 2011 2012 • OVALIE • SAINT-OUEN (93) / 13,355 sqm CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 24
  • 26. A LESS ACTIVE PARIS INTRA-MUROS MARKET INVESTMENT OFFICES • Take-up in central Paris fell by 24% over the course of a year. • The Parisian market suffered from the fall in small and medium sized lettings transactions, as well as those over 4,000 sqm (24 compared with 30 in 2011). • The fall in take-up in central Paris can also be explained by the lack of quality availabilities. SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTIONS IN PARIS TAKE-UP IN INNER PARIS NEXITY • SOLSTYS 100% • PARIS 8 / 24,500 sqm 18 % 17 % 23 % 22 % 22 % 22 % 21 % 24 % 33 % 29 % BANQUE POPULAIRE 80% • PUSHED SLAB 15 % • PARIS 13 / 19,000 sqm 15 % 14 % 17 % 25 % 14 % 23 % 26 % 60% 13 % 18 % RFF • EQUINOXE • PARIS 13 / 18,200 sqm 40% PPR 64 % 67 % • LAENNEC 62 % 61 % 62 % 54 % 58 % 55 % • PARIS 7 / 16,460 sqm 53 % 53 % 20% CRITEO • 32 BLANCHE • PARIS 9 / 10,000 sqm 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 HOGAN LOVELLS • 17 AVENUE MATIGNON Paris CBD Paris Centre East Paris Left Bank • PARIS 8 / 7,000 sqm CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 25
  • 27. DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IN THE FINANCE & ADMINISTRATION SECTORS INVESTMENT OFFICES • The economic and financial crisis weighed on the take-up of office space by the banking and insurance sector (157,489 sqm of take-up in 2012 compared with an average of 246,900 sqm over the last 10 years). • Due to the general elections in 2012, the number of transactions over 4,000 sqm in the administration sector fell to 11 transactions in 2012 compared with an average of 18 per year between 2002 and 2011). • The letting of the Esplanade tower by the Ministry of Ecology suggests that the French government’s cost cutting strategy is likely to mean further large-scale moves in the next few months. TAKE-UP > 4,000 SQM ACCORDING TO ACTIVITY (IN SIZE) 2012 2011 MOYENNE 2002-2011 2002-2011 AVERAGE 7% 10% 6% 16% 18% 19% Administration Administration 11% Administration 12% Banque-Assurance Banque-Assurance Banque-Assurance 16% Communication Communication Communication 15% Conseil Conseil Conseil 21% Industrie-Distribution Industrie-Distribution 28% Industrie-Distribution 25% 5% IT-Telecom 23% IT-Telecom IT-Telecom 43% Services Services Services 2% 8% 4% 6% 5% Public sector Banking-Insurance - Communication Advisory Manufacturing-Distribution - IT Services CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 26
  • 28. INCREASE IN SUPPLY AVAILABLE WITHIN 6 MONTHS INVESTMENT OFFICES • The amount of available supply went up in 2012 (+4%) due to the vacating of premises and several new lettings schemes being put on the market. • New and redeveloped stock went down by 3% over the course of a year and only represents 23% of the total supply on the market within a 6 month period. SUPPLY AVAILABLE IN LE-DE-FRANCE (SQ.M) ACCORDING TO BUSINESS DISTRICT 4 500 000 9% Southern New/redeveloped 36% 8,0% suburbs 7,9% Renovated 4 000 000 7,4% 8% Paris Centre 7,1% 7,1% 7,1% 19% East Secondary/to be renovated 6,7% 6,6% 3 500 000 6,5% 7% 6,1% Eastern suburbs 36% 5,7% 3 000 000 6% Paris Left Bank 14% 2 500 000 5% Boucle de Seine 52% 2 000 000 4% Southwestern 23% suburbs 1 500 000 3% La Défense 26% 1 000 000 2% 2 772 090 3 117 655 3 383 320 3 413 681 3 133 113 2 794 676 3 290 764 4 103 109 4 066 053 3 720 902 3 869 380 Northern 26% 500 000 1% suburbs 0 0% WBD 17% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Paris CBD 18% Supply (sqm) Vacancy rate (%) 0 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 27
  • 29. PRIME RENTS REMAIN HIGH INVESTMENT OFFICES • The lack of quality supply was accentuated in 2012, encouraging tenants with a high profit margin to pay the highest prices for the last availabilities in the best districts of the capital. • There are still big differences in rental values, whilst incentive measures have been a key point of negotiation between occupiers and landlords. RENTAL VALUES IN ILE-DE-FRANCE EXAMPLES OF TRANSACTIONS 820 823 +/- €800/sqm/yr 800 €/m² 760 ROLAND BERGER • LE MAGISTERE 700 • PARIS 8 / 7,390 sqm 662 595 HOGAN LOVELLS 581 • 17 AVENUE MATIGNON 550 • PARIS 8 / 7,000 sqm 540 507 495 539 500 €/m² 512 440 SJ BERWIN • OZONE • PARIS 8 / 3,500 sqm 354 357 319 327 295 AT KEARNEY • 23-25 RUE DE L’UNIVERSITÉ • PARIS 7 / 2,000 sqm 200 €/m² 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Paris CBD: prime rent (€/sqm/yr) Paris CBD: average rent (€/sqm/yr) Hauts de Seine: prime rent (€/sqm/yr) Hauts de Seine: average rent (€/sqm/yr) (1) Prime rent: average of the 5 highest transactions in terms of headline rent >1,000 sq. m. in a year (2) Average rent: average rental values (headline rents mentioned in transactions) all areas included, refurbished or second-hand premises CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 28
  • 30. INCREASE IN FUTURE SUPPLY INVESTMENT OFFICES • The market will be in over-supply in 2013 and is likely to remain so in 2014. This is due to not all availability having been taken-up in 2012. • The amount of future supply depends greatly on the geographical sector and the specific business district, with 70% of supply concentrated in the Western Crescent (Western Business District, La Défense, South Western Suburbs, Boucle de Seine). FUTURE SUPPLY IN ILE-DE-FRANCE (SQ.M) GREOGRAPHICAL BREAKDOWN 1 525 731 m² 6% 7% 20% 8% 9% 20% 946 445 m² 799 482 m² 13% 701 013 m² 17% 6% Northern suburbs 11% 11% La Defense 18% 474 652 17% Western business districts 12% Boucle de Seine 2013 2014 12% 13% South Western suburbs Volume of secure future supply > 10,000 sq.m Volume of likely future supply > 10,000 sq.m Eastern suburbs Paris non CBD Average > 10,000 sq.m take -up over the last 5 years Average > 5,000 sq.m take -up over the last 5 years Paris CBD CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 29
  • 31. SUMMARY INVESTMENT OFFICES OFFICE LETTINGS KEY INDICATORS 2011 2012 TREND Take-up (sqm) 2,321,082 2,098,351 ▼ Take-up > 4,000 sqm (sq.m) 1,050,667 1,044,379 ► Take-up > 4,000 sqm (sq.m) 66% 67% ► – share of new office space Number of transactions > 4,000 sqm 92 91 ► Supply available within 6 months (sqm) 3,720,902 3,869,380 ▲ Vacancy rate (%) 7.1% 7.4% ▲ Prime rent (1) (€/excl. taxes & charges/yr) 838 838 ► Average rent (2) (€/excl. taxes & charges/yr) 364 356 ▼ (1) Prime rent: average of the 5 highest transactions in terms of headline rent >1,000 sq. m. in a year (2) Average rent: average rental values (headline rents mentioned in transactions) all areas included, refurbished or second-hand premises CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 30
  • 32. 2013 FORECAST INVESTMENT OFFICES ?  Poor ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.  Further SOCIAL TENSIONS are likely to weigh on take-up.  Companies will still seek EFFICIENCY and REDUCTION OF COSTS.  Success of WELL-LOCATED districts in the suburbs offering NEW AND ECONOMICAL PREMISES  More significant INCENTIVE MEASURES in secondary markets.  Stable rental values in ESTABLISHED SECTORS with a limited office supply. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 31
  • 33. LARGE GRANDS WAREHOUSES INVESTMENT ENTREPÔTS Jean-Paul Deheeger Head of the Industrial Department LARGE WAREHOUSE MARKET IN FRANCE CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 32
  • 34. TAKE-UP > 5 000 sq.m LARGE WAREHOUSES INVESTMENT In France 3 000 000 2 600 000 2 600 000 2 500 000 2 400 000 2 200 000 2 000 000 2 000 000 1 800 000 1 800 000 1 760 000 1 600 000 1 500 000 1 500 000 1 000 000 1 000 000 500 000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 France Ile-de-France Source: Cushman & Wakefield/Entrepôts > 5 000 m², incluant opérations en compte-propre et ventes utilisateurs. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 33
  • 35. TAKE-UP > 5 000 sq.m LARGE WAREHOUSES INVESTMENT In Ile-de-France 1 200 000 1 000 000 1 000 000 850 000 790 000 800 000 740 000 690 000 700 000 640 000 630 000 600 000 560 000 450 000 400 000 250 000 200 000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Cushman & Wakefield/Entrepôts > 5 000 m², incluant opérations en compte-propre et ventes utilisateurs. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 34
  • 36. CHARACTERISTICS OF TAKE-UP GRANDS LARGE INVESTMENT ENTREPÔTS WAREHOUSES In France (transaction size) Geographical Breakdown – 2012 Geographical Breakdown – 2011 Ile-de-France Ile-de-France 3% Rhône-Alpes Rhône-Alpes 9% 2% 13% Nord-Pas-de-Calais Nord-Pas-de-Calais 5% 3% 3% 31% PACA 33% PACA 6% Pays de la Loire 0% Pays de la Loire 3% 4% 1% Burgandy Burgundy 8% 11% Normandy Normandy 20% Alsace-Lorraine 14% Alsace-Lorraine 14% 17% Centre Centre Other Other CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 35
  • 37. CHARACTERISTICS OF TAKE-UP LARGE WAREHOUSES INVESTMENT In France (transaction size) Size Bracket – 2012 Size Bracket – 2011 5 000 - 10 000 m² 5 000 - 10 000 m² 18% 14% 37% 10 000 - 20 000 m² 10 000 - 20 000 m² 42% 28% 25% 20 000 - 30 000 m² 20 000 - 30 000 m² 20% 16% > 30 000 m² > 30 000 m² CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 36
  • 38. LARGE GRANDS CHARACTERISTICS OF TAKE-UP WAREHOUSES INVESTMENT ENTREPÔTS In France (transaction size) Type of Activity – 2012 Type of Activity – 2011 3PL 3PL 8% 14% 34% In-House Logisticians 47% In-House Logisticians (Distribution sector) (Distribution sector) 45% 52% In-House Logisticians In-House Logisticians (Manufacturing sector) (Manufacturing sector) CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 37
  • 39. LARGE EXAMPLES OF SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTIONS GRANDS WAREHOUSES INVESTMENT ENTREPÔTS Transactions > 10 000 sq.m carried out in France in 2012 MARKET NEW TENANT ADDRESS SURFACE AREA Sq.m Ile-de-France INTERMARCHÉ Parc d’activités Jean Monnet/Vert-Saint-Denis (77) 94 300 Nord-Pas-de-Calais AMAZON.FR Lauwin-Planque (59) 90 000 Nord-Pas-de-Calais OXYLANE (DÉCATHLON) Lieu-dit Terres d’Epinoy/Rouvignies (59) 57 000 Rhône-Alpes FIDUCIAL OFFICE SOLUTIONS Satolas-et-Bonce (38) 45 000 Normandy SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC ZAC du Long Buisson/Guichainville (27) 43 000 Burgundy AMAZON.FR Distripôle/Sevrey (71) 40 000 Ile-de-France INDESIT ZAC Parisud/Combs-la-Ville (77) 40 000 Alsace SCAPALSACE ZA de Niederhergheim (68) 30 000 Pays de la Loire SYSTÈME U Vendéopôle/Fontenay-le-Comte (85) 27 400 Rhône-Alpes CONFORAMA ZA Lafayette/Saint-Georges-d’Espéranche (38) 25 200 Champagne EURODIF Parc logistique de l’Aube/Troyes (10) 24 000 Nord-Pas-de-Calais IM LOGISTIQUE Distripôle/Houplines (59) 22 500 Ile-de-France OTELO Avenue du Fief/Saint-Ouen-l’Aumône (95) 18 300 PACA PROLOG Distriport/Fos-sur-Mer (13) 14 500 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 38
  • 40. LARGE RENTS GRANDS WAREHOUSES INVESTMENT ENTREPÔTS Prime rents as at end 2012 PRIME RENTS OF LARGE WAREHOUSES (€/sq.m/yr) CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 39
  • 41. OVERVIEW OF 2012 GRANDS LARGE INVESTMENT ENTREPÔTS WAREHOUSES Large Warehouse Market in France • 1.8 million sq.m of take-up France, representing a 25 % fall compared with 2011. • The four hubs of the north-south axis concentrated 73% of total take-up, a figure similar to that recorded in 2011. • 560,000 sq.m of take-up in Ile-de-France: a sharp 34 % decrease compared with 2011, representing the lowest level of take-up since 2004. • 360,000 sq.m of take-up in the Lyons region, the only market on the north-south axis to have performed well in 2012. • Stability of prime rents: slightly over 50 €/sq.m/yr in Ile-de-France. • Slight fall in available supply which can be explained by the take-up of new and well-located secondary assets, as well as by the slowdown in forward sale developments. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 40
  • 42. OUTLOOK FOR 2013 LARGE GRANDS WAREHOUSES INVESTMENT ENTREPÔTS Large Warehouse Market in France CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 41
  • 43. RETAIL INVESTMENT COMMERCES THE RETAIL LETTINGS MARKET IN FRANCE CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 42
  • 44. 2012 KEY FACTS INVESTMENT RETAIL A large INCREASE in RETAIL STOCK Higher QUALITY retail developments  Shopping centres: development of new, innovative and exciting concepts to stand out from the competition and to create a BUZZ in the market place The LUXURY SECTOR has strengthened the attractiveness of the high street A LARGE GULF between prime and secondary Competition has been accentuated by the boom of E-COMMERCE  ILLADAPTED REGLEMENTATION surrounding retail A CHANGING retail property market CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 43
  • 45. FRENCH RETAIL PROPERTY STOCK INVESTMENT RETAIL An increase in supply Retail property stock in France GROWTH IN TOTAL LOCATION NUMBER OF SITES NUMBER OF SHOPS TOTAL AREA(SQM) AREA - 2011/2012 (%) HIGH STREET₁ Provinces 209 112,306 13,572,138 0 (0.1) Ile-de-France 83 26,154 4,007,729 0 (0) Total 292 138,460 17,579,867 0 (0) SHOPPING CENTRES² Provinces 746 25,673 14,634,982 1.3 (1.1) Ile-de-France 187 9,799 4,988,392 1.2 (2.2) Total 933 35,472 19,623,374 1.3 (1.4) RETAIL PARKS³ Provinces 923 34,943 29,006,821 1.5 (0.8) Ile-de-France 132 4,919 4,189,721 3.0 (1.8) Total 1,055 39,862 33,196,542 1.7 (0.9) *Source: Cushman & Wakefield as at 1st January 2013 (X): Annual growth 2011/2012 in % (1) Comprising at least 50 sites (2) Shopping centre comprising at least 10 sites (3) Out of town retail zone comprising at least 10 sites CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 44
  • 46. A LARGE INCREASE IN RETAIL STOCK INVESTMENT RETAIL Recent and forthcoming openings 2011 – OPENINGS IN SQM 2012 – OPENINGS IN SQM 2013 – ESTIMATED OPENINGS IN SQM* 892 745 798 333 493 990 430 341 884,140 488,289 354,191 316,360 260,163 547,646 Shopping centres Retail parks Shopping centres Retail parks Shopping centres Retail parks *As at 1st January 2013 Opening announced on the 1st January Effective openings Source: Cushman & Wakefield CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 45
  • 47. A LARGE INCREASE IN RETAIL STOCK INVESTMENT RETAIL 2012: A significant year for postponed retail projects 1600000 1400000 72 130 Remainder Moved back to 2015 214 944 Moved back to 2014 1200000 Moved back to 2013 Developments completed in 2012 1000000 267 160 800000 1 449 443 Shopping centres + Retail parks 600000 1,323,086 sq. m. Shopping centres + 893 209 Retail parks 400000 (62 %) 807,809 sq. m. 200000 0 2012 Forecast Breakdown of 2012 forecast Source: Cushman & Wakefield CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 46
  • 48. HIGHER QUALITY RETAIL DEVELOPMENTS INVESTMENT RETAIL New emblematic projects and openings So Ouest, Levallois-Perret (92) Beaugrenelle, Paris (75015) L’Atoll, Beaucouzé (49) L’Aire des Moissons, Saint-Parres-aux-Tertres (10) CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 47
  • 49. MAJOR OPENINGS AND FORTHCOMING PROJECTS INVESTMENT RETAIL Examples of new shopping centres 2012 OPENINGS TOWN DEVELOPMENT TYPE AREA SQM 260,163 SQM Lyon (69) Confluence Creation 52,000 of openings in France in 2012 Levallois-Perret (92) So Ouest Extension-redevelopment 46,770 La-Chapelle-Saint-Luc (10) L’Escapade Transfer-Extension 16,700 Montreuil (93) Grand Angle Creation 15,000 - 27% Claye-Souilly (77) Les Sentiers de Claye Extension 13,000 Saint-Herblain (44) Atlantis Extension 9,800 YOY 2013 PROJECTS TOWN DEVELOPMENT TYPE AREA SQM Tremblay-en-France (93) Aéroville Creation 65,000 Villeneuve-la-Garenne (92) Bongarde Creation 63,000 Paris (75015) Beaugrenelle Extension-redevelopment 45,000 Epinay-sur-Seine (93) L’Ilo Redevelopment 36,700 Caen (14) Les Rives de l’Orne Creation 28,700 Cherbourg (50) Les Eleis Creation 15,400 Source: Cushman & Wakefield CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 48