3. ECONOMIC CONTEXT AND FORECASTS INTRODUCTION
INVESTMENT
GLOBAL ECONOMY / GDP GROWTH (%) TRENDS IN FRENCH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE *
2011 2012 2013* 2014* 11,0%
Euro Zone 1.4 - 0.4 0.0 1.3 10,5%
Germany
3.1 1.0 0.6 1.7 10,0%
France 1.7 0.1 0.4 1.3 9,5%
United Kingdom 0.8 - 0.2 0.4 1.1 9,0%
USA 1.7 2.2 1.9 2.8 8,5%
China 9.3 7.7 8.5 7.8 8,0%
q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2
Global 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.6
2011 2012 2013**
Sources: Crédit Agricole and OCDE / *Forecast. Source: INSEE / * Metropolitan France / **Forecast
• After relative improvements during 2011, the global economic climate for both developed and emerging countries
deteriorated in 2012.
• French growth remained sluggish in 2012, a year which was also marked by the general elections. Industry in particular,
was hit the hardest and saw the multiplication of restructuring plans.
• Whilst household consumption remained resilient somehow, it is no longer the driver of growth and is expected to decline
further due to the deterioration of the job market.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 2
4. EFFECTS OF THE CRISIS ON THE FRENCH PROPERTY MARKET INTRODUCTION
INVESTMENT
• A longer economic crisis than expected.
• The real estate market has felt the impact of
the crisis since 2008.
Savings
• 2009 was the year of the recession and the
accentuation of the public deficit, marking the
lowest point in the rental and investment
property markets.
Visibility
• After a slight recovery in 2010, the real estate
market saw the most growth in 2011: the
regaining of confidence was helped by
government measures taken both in the Security
Eurozone and USA to stabilize the global
economy.
• Further decline in 2012: the debt crisis
remained unresolved and the French elections
resulted in a decrease in investor and company
confidence.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 3
5. OVERVIEW OF THE 2012 FRENCH INVESTMENT MARKET INTRODUCTION
INVESTMENT
• A total of €14.9bn was invested in France in 2012 representing a decrease
of 10% when compared to the previous year and a volume close to the 10 year
average (-2 %). Large transactions, which mostly occurred in Paris, limited the
decline in activity.
• With take-up of 2.1 million sq.m of office space in Ile-de France, demand has
fallen by 10% compared with 2011. There was lower appetite for small and medium
sized areas although the Parisian market was offset by the completion of several
large-scale operations.
• With1.8 million sq.m of warehouse space let or sold to occupiers in France
in 2012, take-up was down by 25% on the previous year. The logistics market has
suffered due to the wait and see attitude of occupiers as well as the poor
performance of the majority of the large logistics hubs in France
• The arrival of a number of major foreign brands to France, the rapid expansion of
large retailers and the dynamism of the luxury sector have been of benefit to
zone A locations and to prime markets.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 4
7. 2012 KEY FACTS INVESTMENT
--- +++
Moderate FALL in investment volume. LARGE TRANSACTIONS played a
key role.
Less active OFFICE LETTINGS Increasing presence of
MARKET. INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS.
Contrasting performances in the Domination of PARIS INTRA-
different business districts of ILE-DE- MUROS.
FRANCE.
RETAIL: targeted sectors
performed well.
Rebound of the LOGISTICS market.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 6
8. INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN FRANCE (€ BN) INVESTMENT
• A total of €14.9bn was invested in France in 2012 (418 transactions), €11bn of which was
invested in Ile-de-France. €14.9BN
• A 10% fall in investment volumes over the course of the year, or a 2 % fall when compared with invested in France
the yearly average of the last 10 years (€15.2bn). in 2012
• Investment volume still greatly exceeded its low point of 2009 (€7.8bn).
30
-10%
25
yoy
20
15
10
5
11,1
17,5
24,4
28,5
13,0
11,1
16,5
14,9
12,2
9,8
7,8
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
10-year average (€15.2bn)
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 7
9. OFFICE INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN FRANCE INVESTMENT
• A 19% fall yoy, or an 11% fall in comparison with the yearly average of the last 10 years (€11.2bn).
• Accounting for 67% of all investments, the share of office investments was down slightly on last year, due to the fall in
transactions in the region of €50-100m.
25 100%
20 80%
84%
15 67% 60%
61%
10 40%
5 20%
14,0
18,2
19,5
10,3
10,0
10,2
12,3
7,7
5,3
8,0
6,7
0 0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Office investments (€bn) Share in total investments (%)
10-year average (€11.2bn)
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 8
10. OFFICE INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN PARIS/ILE DE FRANCE INVESTMENT
• Investment volumes were down by 32% in the “Western Crescent” (Western Business District, La Défense and the
South-Western Suburbs) in 2012.
• Certain well-located markets in the suburbs performed well. Boasting quality office buildings at competitive rents and with
excellent transport links, these sectors provide a good alternative for office lettings.
INVESTMENT BREAKDOWN (€ VOLUME)
7% 2012
1%
2011 8%
9%
7% 7%
Start – Guyancourt Urbagreen – Joinville-le-Pont
2% 2%
4%
47% 10% 60%
11%
4%
7%
11% 2%
Inner Paris Liberté II – Charenton-Le-Pont
City Zen – Bois-Colombes
Inner Paris La Defense
La Defense Western business districts
Western business districts Boucle de Seine
Boucle de Seine Southwestern suburbs
Southwestern suburbs Southern suburbs
Southern suburbs
Eastern suburbs
Eastern suburbs
Northern suburbs Northern suburbs
Terra Nova IV – Montreuil
Rest of Paris region Rest of Paris region
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 9
11. INVESTMENT DEAL ANALYSIS INVESTMENT
• Out of a total of 418 transactions, 39 were over €100m, representing 53% of investments (9% of the total number).
• Medium-sized deals were fewer, penalised by the tightening of financing conditions and a reduced number of investors.
100%
27% 28%
80%
>€100mn Neo-Retiro, Paris Faubourg One, Paris
= 53%
60% 23%
25%
40% 21% 17% Avant Seine-52 Hoche, Paris
Haussmann-Courcelles, Paris
20% 52-60 CE, Paris
22% 21%
7% 9%
Portefeuille ANF, Lyon
0% Carré Saint-Germain, Paris
2011 2012
€1-15mn €15-50mn €50-100mn €100-200mn >€200mn
Portefeuille Mercure, France
*All types of products
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 10
12. PURCHASER NATIONALITY IN FRANCE INVESTMENT
• French, mainly institutional investors, are still in the majority (57%).
• Foreign investors mainly positioned themselves on large transactions and made up for 43% of all acquisitions (compared
with 38% in 2011)
• Sovereign Funds made a name for themselves in 2012 with 7 major acquisitions over €200m (representing €2.7bn).
INVESTMENT BREAKDOWN BY NATIONALITY OF PURCHASERS*
Asia
North America 4%
7%
Middle East
14%
Europe - other
3%
France
UK 57%
3%
Norway
3%
Germany
9%
*All types of products
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 11
13. CROSS-BORDER ACTIVITY INVESTMENT
• While the French are still in the lead, the foreign investor share went up from 38% in 2011 to 43% in 2012,
accounting for €6.4bn.
EUROPE
NORTH AMERICA
40%
ASIA
16%
10%
MIDDLE EAST
34%
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 12
14. FRANCE INVESTMENT BREAKDOWN INVESTMENT
• Predominance of inner Paris: 20 transactions > €100m out of a total of 39 recorded in France.
• Volumes were boosted by large transactions carried out by foreign investors who targeted the most liquid and prestigious
assets of the capital.
• Investor aversion to risk increased further, favouring the most secure assets.
FRANCE INVESTMENT BREAKDOWN*
Paris CBD
Provinces 25%
26%
Cité du Retiro, Paris 8
PARIS
= 41%
23 Université, Paris 7 52-60 Champs-Élysées, Paris 8 Siège d’Amundi, Paris 15
Rest of
Paris
16%
Rest of
Paris region
33%
*All type of products 116bis Champs-Élysées, Paris 8
Faubourg One, Paris 8
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 13
15. RETAIL INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN FRANCE INVESTMENT
• A 9% increase yoy and a 64% increase when compared with the yearly average of the last 10 years (€2.2bn).
• This performance was boosted by 12 acquisitions of retail or mixed assets over €100m, accounting for 52% of retail
investments.
• High street retail accounted for 51% of all investments in retail.
RETAIL INVESTMENT ACTIVITY IN FRANCE (€ BN) INVESTMENT ACTIVITY BY ASSET TYPE
5 100% 100%
14%
22%
4 80% 80%
35%
3 60% 60%
45%
2 40% 40%
51%
20%
1 20% 33%
0,9
0,8
1,2
1,9
2,3
4,8
1,2
1,9
3,6
3,3
3,6
0%
0 0%
2011 2012
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Retail investments (€bn) Share in total investments (%) High street retail Shopping centres Retail warehousing
10-year average (€2.2bn)
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 14
16. INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN FRANCE INVESTMENT
• Investment volumes were just below the 10 year average (€1.4bn), but up by 44% on 2011.
• The strong performance was aided by the sale of 3 large logistics portfolios (accounting for 45% of all industrial
investments).
4 100%
€1.3BN
invested in industrial
80% in 2012
3
60%
2 +44%
40%
yoy
1
20%
0,8
2,6
2,1
1,5
0,6
0,7
1,1
0,9
3,2
0,9
1,3
0 0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Industrial investments (€bn) Share in total investments (%)
10-year average (€1.4bn)
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 15
17. THE INVESTMENT MARKET IN THE PROVINCES INVESTMENT
• Volumes invested in the provinces remained stable compared with last year (€3.9bn)
• The Lyons market accounted for 22% of sums invested outside Ile-de-France.
• Activity in other large towns in the provinces was animated by some significant transactions.
EXAMPLES OF TRANSACTIONS MADE IN THE PROVINCES IN 2012
Type Property Location Vendor Purchaser Area sqm Price
€mn
Retail ANF portfolio Lyons ANF Grosvenor - >300
Retail 65 Croisette Cannes KanAm Thor Equities 1,800 90
Office Oxygène tower Lyons Unibail-Rodamco AEW Europe 30,000 130
Office Lugdunum building Lyons Sogelym Dixence Unofi Assurances 21,200 76.4
Logistics Arrow portfolio Prologis Blackstone 480,000 208
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 16
18. INTEREST RATES INVESTMENT
• Competition between investors for the best assets weighed on yields, the fall in which followed on from the fall in
interest rates
• The spread between the OAT 10 year bonds and prime yields in Paris still remains attractive (227 bp as at 31/12).
• Growing distinction between prime and secondary markets
PROPERTY YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES, AS AT 31/12
7%
6%
5%
4.25%
4%
3%
227 bp
2%
1.98%
1%
0.19%
0%
-1 %
-2 %
q4 05 q4 06 q4 07 q4 08 q4 09 q4 10 q4 11 q4 12
Prime office yield 3-month Euribor 10-year bonds Spread
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 17
19. 2013 FORECAST INVESTMENT
?
Predominance of EQUITY INVESTORS.
LACK OF PRIME investment opportunities.
DEBT MARKET potentially more favourable.
LETTINGS MARKETS under pressure.
Likely 10% FALL in INVESTMENT VOLUMES in 2013.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 18
20. INVESTMENT
OFFICES
THE OFFICE LETTINGS MARKETS IN PARIS/ILE-DE-FRANCE
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 19
21. 2012 KEY FACTS INVESTMENT
OFFICES
TAKE-UP: An “average” year.
Key role played by LARGE TRANSACTIONS.
NEW AND REDEVELOPED properties make up for a significant share of take-up.
Strong performance in the NORTHERN & SOUTHERN INNER SUBURBS.
A less active PARIS INTRA-MUROS market.
Decrease in activity in the FINANCE & ADMINISTRATION SECTORS.
INCREASE IN SUPPLY available within 6 months.
PRIME RENTS remain high.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 20
22. TAKE-UP: AN “AVERAGE” YEAR INVESTMENT
OFFICES
• A 10% fall compared with 2011 and a 1% fall compared with the average of the last 10 years.
• Still, much higher take-up than in 2009 (+20%).
TRENDS IN TAKE-UP IN PARIS/ILE-DE-FRANCE (SQM)
3 000 000
2 500 000
2 000 000
1 500 000
1 000 000
1 581 102
1 742 328
1 937 638
2 049 452
2 791 622
2 656 443
2 357 403
1 752 665
2 091 864
2 321 082
2 098 351
500 000
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2002-2011 average (2.13 million sqm)
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 21
23. LARGE TRANSACTIONS PLAY KEY ROLE INVESTMENT
OFFICES
• 91 transactions > 4,000 sqm accounted for 1,044,379 sqm, i.e. 50% of total take-up.
• 10 transactions > 20,000 sqm accounted for 33% of total take-up > 4,000 sqm
TRANSACTION BREAKDOWN BY SURFACE AREA (IN SIZE)
100%
EXAMPLES OF SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTIONS
80% 43% 42% CNET/ORANGE
44% 46% 44% 45% 45%
51% 49% 51% 50%
• ECO-CAMPUS
• Châtillon (92)
60% • 70,000 sqm
MINISTÈRE DE L’ÉCOLOGIE
40%
• TOUR ESPLANADE
• PUTEAUX (92)
56% 54% 56% 57% 58% 55% 55%
49% 51% 49% 50% • 53,600 sqm
20%
THALÈS
0% • NEW VELIZY
• VELIZY-VILLACOUBLAY (78)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
• 49,000 sqm
Transactions <4,000 sqm Transactions >4,000 sqm
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 22
24. NEW PROPERTIES MAKE UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT SHARE INVESTMENT
OFFICES
Take-up > 4,000 sqm
• New/redeveloped properties accounted for 67% of all take-up >4,000 sqm.
• This figure includes a large number of turn key schemes (CNET, Thalès, Unilever, etc.).
• These projects show that occupiers are acting early to profit from the best possible leasing conditions
QUALITY OF TAKE-UP > 4,000 SQM TAKE-UP > 4,000 SQM ACCORDING
TO REASON FOR MOVING (IN SIZE)
1 600 000 90%
80% 1%
1 400 000
10%
70%
1 200 000
60%
1 000 000 42%
50%
800 000
40%
47%
600 000
30%
400 000
20%
1 419 972
1 116 329
1 157 054
1 073 748
1 050 667
1 044 379
Consolidation
698 123
800 297
860 380
881 965
794 811
200 000 10% Cost cuttings
Relocalisation
0 0%
Extension
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Take-up Share of new/refurbished office space leased
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 23
25. STRONG PERFORMANCE IN THE NORTHERN AND INVESTMENT
OFFICES
SOUTHERN INNER SUBURBS
• The high increase in take-up in the southern suburbs (+141% on 2011) can be in part explained by CNET moving all
staff to one roof in Châtillon, as this lettings transaction alone accounted for 48% of take-up in the sector in 2012.
• The northern suburbs also performed well, with a 55% increase in take-up compared with the 10-year average and
much more balanced activity than in 2011.
TAKE-UP BY SUBMARKETS SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTIONS IN THE
2011/2012 (SQM) NORTHERN SUBURBS
SNCF
500 000 • CITY ONE
• SAINT-DENIS (93) / 22,000 sqm
400 000
SNCF
• INNOVATIS 2
• SAINT-DENIS (93) / 20,000 sqm
300 000
SIEMENS
• LE SISLEY
200 000 • SAINT-DENIS (93) / 18,710 sqm
BETC EURO RSCG
100 000 • EX-BÂTIMENT DES DOUANES
• PANTIN (93) / 16,000 sqm
482 552
424 836
389 438
337 740
248 295
231 586
163 183
145 159
278 655
289 044
188 236
108 634
158 804
215 159
138 800
235 646
60 184
46 674
56 320
99 167
67 609
53 712
0 CONSEIL GENERAL 93
• LE PAPILLON
• BOBIGNY (93) / 15,000 sqm
SAMSUNG
2011 2012
• OVALIE
• SAINT-OUEN (93) / 13,355 sqm
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 24
26. A LESS ACTIVE PARIS INTRA-MUROS MARKET INVESTMENT
OFFICES
• Take-up in central Paris fell by 24% over the course of a year.
• The Parisian market suffered from the fall in small and medium sized lettings transactions, as well as those over
4,000 sqm (24 compared with 30 in 2011).
• The fall in take-up in central Paris can also be explained by the lack of quality availabilities.
SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTIONS IN PARIS
TAKE-UP IN INNER PARIS
NEXITY
• SOLSTYS
100% • PARIS 8 / 24,500 sqm
18 % 17 %
23 % 22 % 22 % 22 % 21 % 24 %
33 %
29 % BANQUE POPULAIRE
80% • PUSHED SLAB
15 % • PARIS 13 / 19,000 sqm
15 % 14 % 17 % 25 % 14 %
23 % 26 %
60% 13 % 18 % RFF
• EQUINOXE
• PARIS 13 / 18,200 sqm
40% PPR
64 % 67 % • LAENNEC
62 % 61 % 62 %
54 % 58 % 55 % • PARIS 7 / 16,460 sqm
53 % 53 %
20%
CRITEO
• 32 BLANCHE
• PARIS 9 / 10,000 sqm
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 HOGAN LOVELLS
• 17 AVENUE MATIGNON
Paris CBD Paris Centre East Paris Left Bank
• PARIS 8 / 7,000 sqm
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 25
27. DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IN THE FINANCE &
ADMINISTRATION SECTORS INVESTMENT
OFFICES
• The economic and financial crisis weighed on the take-up of office space by the banking and insurance sector (157,489
sqm of take-up in 2012 compared with an average of 246,900 sqm over the last 10 years).
• Due to the general elections in 2012, the number of transactions over 4,000 sqm in the administration sector fell to 11
transactions in 2012 compared with an average of 18 per year between 2002 and 2011).
• The letting of the Esplanade tower by the Ministry of Ecology suggests that the French government’s cost cutting
strategy is likely to mean further large-scale moves in the next few months.
TAKE-UP > 4,000 SQM ACCORDING TO ACTIVITY (IN SIZE)
2012 2011 MOYENNE 2002-2011
2002-2011 AVERAGE
7% 10% 6%
16% 18% 19%
Administration Administration 11% Administration
12%
Banque-Assurance Banque-Assurance Banque-Assurance
16%
Communication Communication Communication
15%
Conseil Conseil Conseil
21%
Industrie-Distribution Industrie-Distribution
28% Industrie-Distribution
25%
5% IT-Telecom 23%
IT-Telecom IT-Telecom
43% Services Services Services
2% 8%
4% 6% 5%
Public sector Banking-Insurance
- Communication Advisory Manufacturing-Distribution
- IT Services
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 26
28. INCREASE IN SUPPLY AVAILABLE WITHIN 6 MONTHS INVESTMENT
OFFICES
• The amount of available supply went up in 2012 (+4%) due to the vacating of premises and several new lettings
schemes being put on the market.
• New and redeveloped stock went down by 3% over the course of a year and only represents 23% of the total supply on
the market within a 6 month period.
SUPPLY AVAILABLE IN LE-DE-FRANCE (SQ.M) ACCORDING TO BUSINESS DISTRICT
4 500 000 9% Southern New/redeveloped
36%
8,0% suburbs
7,9%
Renovated
4 000 000 7,4% 8% Paris Centre
7,1% 7,1% 7,1% 19%
East Secondary/to be renovated
6,7% 6,6%
3 500 000 6,5% 7%
6,1% Eastern suburbs 36%
5,7%
3 000 000 6%
Paris Left Bank 14%
2 500 000 5%
Boucle de Seine 52%
2 000 000 4%
Southwestern
23%
suburbs
1 500 000 3%
La Défense 26%
1 000 000 2%
2 772 090
3 117 655
3 383 320
3 413 681
3 133 113
2 794 676
3 290 764
4 103 109
4 066 053
3 720 902
3 869 380
Northern
26%
500 000 1% suburbs
0 0% WBD 17%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Paris CBD 18%
Supply (sqm) Vacancy rate (%) 0 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 27
29. PRIME RENTS REMAIN HIGH INVESTMENT
OFFICES
• The lack of quality supply was accentuated in 2012, encouraging tenants with a high profit margin to pay the highest
prices for the last availabilities in the best districts of the capital.
• There are still big differences in rental values, whilst incentive measures have been a key point of negotiation
between occupiers and landlords.
RENTAL VALUES IN ILE-DE-FRANCE
EXAMPLES OF TRANSACTIONS
820 823 +/- €800/sqm/yr
800 €/m²
760 ROLAND BERGER
• LE MAGISTERE
700 • PARIS 8 / 7,390 sqm
662
595
HOGAN LOVELLS
581 • 17 AVENUE MATIGNON
550 • PARIS 8 / 7,000 sqm
540
507
495 539
500 €/m²
512
440
SJ BERWIN
• OZONE
• PARIS 8 / 3,500 sqm
354 357
319 327
295 AT KEARNEY
• 23-25 RUE DE L’UNIVERSITÉ
• PARIS 7 / 2,000 sqm
200 €/m²
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Paris CBD: prime rent (€/sqm/yr) Paris CBD: average rent (€/sqm/yr)
Hauts de Seine: prime rent (€/sqm/yr) Hauts de Seine: average rent (€/sqm/yr)
(1) Prime rent: average of the 5 highest transactions in terms of headline rent >1,000 sq. m. in a year
(2) Average rent: average rental values (headline rents mentioned in transactions) all areas included, refurbished or second-hand premises CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 28
30. INCREASE IN FUTURE SUPPLY INVESTMENT
OFFICES
• The market will be in over-supply in 2013 and is likely to remain so in 2014. This is due to not all availability having been
taken-up in 2012.
• The amount of future supply depends greatly on the geographical sector and the specific business district, with
70% of supply concentrated in the Western Crescent (Western Business District, La Défense, South Western
Suburbs, Boucle de Seine).
FUTURE SUPPLY IN ILE-DE-FRANCE (SQ.M) GREOGRAPHICAL BREAKDOWN
1 525 731 m² 6%
7% 20%
8%
9%
20%
946 445 m²
799 482 m² 13%
701 013 m² 17%
6% Northern suburbs
11%
11% La Defense
18%
474 652
17% Western business districts
12% Boucle de Seine
2013 2014 12% 13%
South Western suburbs
Volume of secure future supply > 10,000 sq.m Volume of likely future supply > 10,000 sq.m Eastern suburbs
Paris non CBD
Average > 10,000 sq.m take -up over the last 5 years Average > 5,000 sq.m take -up over the last 5 years Paris CBD
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 29
31. SUMMARY INVESTMENT
OFFICES
OFFICE LETTINGS KEY INDICATORS
2011 2012 TREND
Take-up (sqm) 2,321,082 2,098,351 ▼
Take-up > 4,000 sqm (sq.m) 1,050,667 1,044,379 ►
Take-up > 4,000 sqm (sq.m)
66% 67% ►
– share of new office space
Number of transactions > 4,000 sqm 92 91 ►
Supply available within 6 months (sqm) 3,720,902 3,869,380 ▲
Vacancy rate (%) 7.1% 7.4% ▲
Prime rent (1) (€/excl. taxes & charges/yr) 838 838 ►
Average rent (2) (€/excl. taxes & charges/yr) 364 356 ▼
(1) Prime rent: average of the 5 highest transactions in terms of headline rent >1,000 sq. m. in a year
(2) Average rent: average rental values (headline rents mentioned in transactions) all areas included, refurbished or second-hand premises
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 30
32. 2013 FORECAST INVESTMENT
OFFICES
?
Poor ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.
Further SOCIAL TENSIONS are likely to weigh on take-up.
Companies will still seek EFFICIENCY and REDUCTION OF COSTS.
Success of WELL-LOCATED districts in the suburbs offering NEW AND ECONOMICAL PREMISES
More significant INCENTIVE MEASURES in secondary markets.
Stable rental values in ESTABLISHED SECTORS with a limited office supply.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 31
33. LARGE
GRANDS
WAREHOUSES
INVESTMENT
ENTREPÔTS
Jean-Paul Deheeger
Head of the Industrial Department
LARGE WAREHOUSE MARKET IN FRANCE
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 32
36. CHARACTERISTICS OF TAKE-UP GRANDS
LARGE
INVESTMENT
ENTREPÔTS
WAREHOUSES
In France (transaction size)
Geographical Breakdown – 2012 Geographical Breakdown – 2011
Ile-de-France Ile-de-France
3% Rhône-Alpes Rhône-Alpes
9%
2% 13%
Nord-Pas-de-Calais Nord-Pas-de-Calais
5% 3% 3%
31% PACA 33% PACA
6%
Pays de la Loire 0% Pays de la Loire
3% 4%
1% Burgandy Burgundy
8% 11%
Normandy Normandy
20% Alsace-Lorraine 14% Alsace-Lorraine
14%
17%
Centre Centre
Other Other
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 35
37. CHARACTERISTICS OF TAKE-UP LARGE
WAREHOUSES
INVESTMENT
In France (transaction size)
Size Bracket – 2012 Size Bracket – 2011
5 000 - 10 000 m² 5 000 - 10 000 m²
18% 14%
37% 10 000 - 20 000 m² 10 000 - 20 000 m²
42%
28%
25% 20 000 - 30 000 m² 20 000 - 30 000 m²
20% 16%
> 30 000 m² > 30 000 m²
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 36
38. LARGE
GRANDS
CHARACTERISTICS OF TAKE-UP WAREHOUSES
INVESTMENT
ENTREPÔTS
In France (transaction size)
Type of Activity – 2012 Type of Activity – 2011
3PL 3PL
8%
14%
34%
In-House Logisticians 47% In-House Logisticians
(Distribution sector) (Distribution sector)
45%
52%
In-House Logisticians In-House Logisticians
(Manufacturing sector) (Manufacturing sector)
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 37
39. LARGE
EXAMPLES OF SIGNIFICANT TRANSACTIONS GRANDS
WAREHOUSES
INVESTMENT
ENTREPÔTS
Transactions > 10 000 sq.m carried out in France in 2012
MARKET NEW TENANT ADDRESS SURFACE AREA
Sq.m
Ile-de-France INTERMARCHÉ Parc d’activités Jean Monnet/Vert-Saint-Denis (77) 94 300
Nord-Pas-de-Calais AMAZON.FR Lauwin-Planque (59) 90 000
Nord-Pas-de-Calais OXYLANE (DÉCATHLON) Lieu-dit Terres d’Epinoy/Rouvignies (59) 57 000
Rhône-Alpes FIDUCIAL OFFICE SOLUTIONS Satolas-et-Bonce (38) 45 000
Normandy SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC ZAC du Long Buisson/Guichainville (27) 43 000
Burgundy AMAZON.FR Distripôle/Sevrey (71) 40 000
Ile-de-France INDESIT ZAC Parisud/Combs-la-Ville (77) 40 000
Alsace SCAPALSACE ZA de Niederhergheim (68) 30 000
Pays de la Loire SYSTÈME U Vendéopôle/Fontenay-le-Comte (85) 27 400
Rhône-Alpes CONFORAMA ZA Lafayette/Saint-Georges-d’Espéranche (38) 25 200
Champagne EURODIF Parc logistique de l’Aube/Troyes (10) 24 000
Nord-Pas-de-Calais IM LOGISTIQUE Distripôle/Houplines (59) 22 500
Ile-de-France OTELO Avenue du Fief/Saint-Ouen-l’Aumône (95) 18 300
PACA PROLOG Distriport/Fos-sur-Mer (13) 14 500
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 38
40. LARGE
RENTS GRANDS
WAREHOUSES
INVESTMENT
ENTREPÔTS
Prime rents as at end 2012
PRIME RENTS OF LARGE WAREHOUSES (€/sq.m/yr)
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 39
41. OVERVIEW OF 2012 GRANDS
LARGE
INVESTMENT
ENTREPÔTS
WAREHOUSES
Large Warehouse Market in France
• 1.8 million sq.m of take-up France, representing a 25 % fall
compared with 2011.
• The four hubs of the north-south axis concentrated 73% of total
take-up, a figure similar to that recorded in 2011.
• 560,000 sq.m of take-up in Ile-de-France: a sharp 34 % decrease
compared with 2011, representing the lowest level of take-up since 2004.
• 360,000 sq.m of take-up in the Lyons region, the only market on
the north-south axis to have performed well in 2012.
• Stability of prime rents: slightly over 50 €/sq.m/yr in Ile-de-France.
• Slight fall in available supply which can be explained by the take-up of
new and well-located secondary assets, as well as by the slowdown in
forward sale developments.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 40
42. OUTLOOK FOR 2013
LARGE
GRANDS
WAREHOUSES
INVESTMENT
ENTREPÔTS
Large Warehouse Market in France
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 41
43. RETAIL
INVESTMENT
COMMERCES
THE RETAIL LETTINGS MARKET IN FRANCE
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 42
44. 2012 KEY FACTS INVESTMENT
RETAIL
A large INCREASE in RETAIL STOCK
Higher QUALITY retail developments
Shopping centres: development of new, innovative and exciting concepts to stand out from the
competition and to create a BUZZ in the market place
The LUXURY SECTOR has strengthened the attractiveness of the high street
A LARGE GULF between prime and secondary
Competition has been accentuated by the boom of E-COMMERCE
ILLADAPTED REGLEMENTATION surrounding retail
A CHANGING retail property market
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 43
45. FRENCH RETAIL PROPERTY STOCK INVESTMENT
RETAIL
An increase in supply
Retail property stock in France
GROWTH IN TOTAL
LOCATION NUMBER OF SITES NUMBER OF SHOPS TOTAL AREA(SQM)
AREA - 2011/2012 (%)
HIGH STREET₁
Provinces 209 112,306 13,572,138 0 (0.1)
Ile-de-France 83 26,154 4,007,729 0 (0)
Total 292 138,460 17,579,867 0 (0)
SHOPPING CENTRES²
Provinces 746 25,673 14,634,982 1.3 (1.1)
Ile-de-France 187 9,799 4,988,392 1.2 (2.2)
Total 933 35,472 19,623,374 1.3 (1.4)
RETAIL PARKS³
Provinces 923 34,943 29,006,821 1.5 (0.8)
Ile-de-France 132 4,919 4,189,721 3.0 (1.8)
Total 1,055 39,862 33,196,542 1.7 (0.9)
*Source: Cushman & Wakefield as at 1st January 2013 (X): Annual growth 2011/2012 in %
(1) Comprising at least 50 sites
(2) Shopping centre comprising at least 10 sites
(3) Out of town retail zone comprising at least 10 sites
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 44
46. A LARGE INCREASE IN RETAIL STOCK INVESTMENT
RETAIL
Recent and forthcoming openings
2011 – OPENINGS IN SQM 2012 – OPENINGS IN SQM 2013 – ESTIMATED OPENINGS IN SQM*
892 745
798 333
493 990
430 341
884,140
488,289
354,191
316,360
260,163
547,646
Shopping centres Retail parks Shopping centres Retail parks Shopping centres Retail parks
*As at 1st January 2013
Opening announced on the 1st January Effective openings
Source: Cushman & Wakefield CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 45
47. A LARGE INCREASE IN RETAIL STOCK INVESTMENT
RETAIL
2012: A significant year for postponed retail projects
1600000
1400000 72 130 Remainder
Moved back to 2015
214 944
Moved back to 2014
1200000
Moved back to 2013
Developments completed in 2012
1000000
267 160
800000
1 449 443 Shopping centres +
Retail parks
600000 1,323,086 sq. m.
Shopping centres +
893 209 Retail parks
400000 (62 %) 807,809 sq. m.
200000
0
2012 Forecast Breakdown of 2012 forecast
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 46
48. HIGHER QUALITY RETAIL DEVELOPMENTS INVESTMENT
RETAIL
New emblematic projects and openings
So Ouest, Levallois-Perret (92) Beaugrenelle, Paris (75015)
L’Atoll, Beaucouzé (49) L’Aire des Moissons, Saint-Parres-aux-Tertres (10)
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 47
49. MAJOR OPENINGS AND FORTHCOMING PROJECTS INVESTMENT
RETAIL
Examples of new shopping centres
2012 OPENINGS
TOWN DEVELOPMENT TYPE AREA SQM 260,163 SQM
Lyon (69) Confluence Creation 52,000 of openings in France
in 2012
Levallois-Perret (92) So Ouest Extension-redevelopment 46,770
La-Chapelle-Saint-Luc (10) L’Escapade Transfer-Extension 16,700
Montreuil (93) Grand Angle Creation 15,000
- 27%
Claye-Souilly (77) Les Sentiers de Claye Extension 13,000
Saint-Herblain (44) Atlantis Extension 9,800
YOY
2013 PROJECTS
TOWN DEVELOPMENT TYPE AREA SQM
Tremblay-en-France (93) Aéroville Creation 65,000
Villeneuve-la-Garenne (92) Bongarde Creation 63,000
Paris (75015) Beaugrenelle Extension-redevelopment 45,000
Epinay-sur-Seine (93) L’Ilo Redevelopment 36,700
Caen (14) Les Rives de l’Orne Creation 28,700
Cherbourg (50) Les Eleis Creation 15,400
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 48