The document summarizes research on the water, food, and energy nexus in the wider Mekong region. It finds:
1. Major infrastructure investments and climate change will significantly impact the nexus between water, food, and energy security in the region.
2. Irrigation and industry development are unlikely to effectively reduce poverty on their own and may have unintended consequences like increased migration.
3. The region is highly diverse, so generalizations are not possible and solutions must be tailored to local conditions, values, and expected impacts of changes like resource decline.
The Water, Food & Energy Nexus: Results of a Mekong Investigation
1. The Water, Food & Energy Nexus: Results of a Mekong investigation
CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES / CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP
Alex Smajgl, Sokhem Pech and John Ward Hanoi, November 2012
2. Wider Mekong region is becoming highly connected
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
3. Willingness to adapt
Well being well being and
Potential gains livelihoods
Avoiding losses
poverty
vulnerability
Values Beliefs Adaptation
Capacity to adapt Policy initiatives
Livelihood factors •Communication
Household characteristics •Trust
Assets, entitlements •Equity and fairness
Social institutions
vulnerability
Exploring Mekong Futures
4. A nexus version specific to the
Wider Mekong Region.
Food Security ?
Water security ?
Energy security ?
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 6
5. Greater Mekong Subregion energy security -
eight dimensions
I Metabolism
VIII Environmental
II Governance
Sustainability
Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar
VII Resilience Thailand, Vietnam, Yunnan, III Availability
280-317 million people
VI Technological Development
IV Access
& Long Term Sustainability
V Affordability
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
6. Session 1:
The predicted effects of impending decisions
on Water Food and Energy security
Session 2:
The nexus and poverty levels
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
7. National pending investments with regional
consequences
1. Mekong River mainstream dams
2. Large-scale water diversion (into NE Thailand)
3. Sea level rise
4. More rubber plantations
5. Kunming-Phnom Penh railway
6. Bauxite mining in the Bolaven Plateau
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
8. Nexus Synthesis
1. Food security decrease
– Less fish
? More irrigation potential but more energy crops and rubber
– Food prices increase with bigger pressure on the poor
2. Water access will see big change
? Flood risks shift from natural to operational risks
– Peaks and timing change will erode many livelihoods
? Substantial shift between six countries (possible conflict)
3. Energy
+ Increasing demand could be satisfied
– Higher energy prices
4. Livelihoods and Migration
? Shift from subsistence to paid labour
? More migration
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
9. Nexus effects – Water
1. Flood Risks change from natural to operational (3-6 meters of
daily flow fluctuations 40-50km downstream reservoirs)
2. Up to 70% increase in dry season flow in Northern Laos and
Thailand, but only 10% in Delta.
3. Sediment loads drop from 90Mt to 20Mt/year causing erosion
of riverbanks and the Delta
4. Irrigation projects & sea-level rise exacerbate water shortage
during droughts in Delta.
5. Shorter flood transitions (2-4 weeks)
6. Up to 150,000 ha of garden and agricultural land inundated
7. Less wetlands: i.e. Thailand -18% & Laos -34%
8. Water quality decline: More applied nutrients (85% N & 100%
P) & herbicide (75%) & pesticide/fungicide (59%)
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
10. Nexus effects – Food
1. Sharp reduction in fisheries
2. Dependence upon imported food and markets will increase
3. Food prices increase
4. Biodiversity will decline because of increased mono-crops
5. Salinity may be an increasing problem for domestic supply in
coastal areas and regions of large-scale intensive irrigation
6. Slower rate of income increase reduces affordability
7. Increasing risks to ecosystems reducing resilience of food
production in Mekong countries
8. Mekong Delta my lose a rice crop (April) after dry years (and
exacerbated drought)
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
11. Nexus effects – Energy
1. Increased power generation capacity
2. Increase in national and regional GDP
3. Higher energy and materials prices
4. Hydropower makes nuclear energy less urgent
5. Hydropower can reduce greenhouse gas emissions
6. Possible increase in bio-mass for power generation
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
13. Cumulative evaluation: sustaining the nexus
balance
• Fish stocks require new governance solutions independent of
mainstream dams.
• Land use change, tenure and irrigation managed as an
instrument to alleviate poverty = sustainable development .
• Risks managed with particular attention to monoculture
dependencies.
• Migration dynamics are a critical factor influencing political
stability.
• Labour shifts from the primary to secondary sector as part of an
underpinning urbanisation trend.
• It will be critical to effectively manage energy demand (as
opposed to the singular management of power supply).
CSIRO Exploring Mekong Futures:
14. Mekong region is highly connected
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
15. Hua Sai Baht, Isaan, Thailand
Irrigation is unlikely to reduce poverty
Large irrigation schemes in Isaan
• Irrigation has
• large impacts on average income
• Low impacts on poverty
Average household income - Mahasarakham
New manufacturing industries
50%
• Industry employment has
40%
• Low impacts on average income
30% • Large impacts on poverty
Irrigation infrastructure
20% Industry employment
10%
0%
2553
2570
2554
2555
2556
2557
2558
2559
2560
2561
2562
2563
2564
2565
2566
2567
2568
2569
2571
2572
-10%
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 17
16. Nam Ngum, Lao PDR
Irrigation is unlikely to reduce poverty
New irrigation schemes in the Nam Ngum catchment
•increases average income in most provinces by 20-30%, only
in Louang Phrabang and Xiang Khoang much less (3%)
•does not reduce poverty rate mostly (<1%)
Industry employment
•has lower effects on income (~4%);
only in Xaysomboun high effects (~14%)
•Has large effects on poverty (-3-4 %points);
effective in Xaysomboun (10% points)
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
17. Xishuanbanna, Yunnan, China
Payments for green rubber could extend rubber
Yunnan government makes payments for “green” rubber
•increases area under rubber (green or not green by 15%)
•Does not reduce rubber production substantially (-0.4%)
•Nearly no impact on poverty
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
18. Xishuangbanna: Government payment to
replace rubber has limited potential
Area under Rubber
2012
2019
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
%
30%
Green rubber
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Government Payments
-20%
-30% Regulation
-40%
-50%
-60% Monoculture rubber
-70%
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 20
19. Xishuangbanna:
Regulation comes at a cost
Average household income
1%
2023
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
-4%
-9%
Government Payments
-14%
Tourism employment
Regulation
-19%
-24%
-29%
-34%
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 21
20. Tonle Sap, Cambodia
Fish: highly vulnerable, industry no panacea
• Improving trade access
• low impact on household income
(except Kampong Thom 10%)
• no impact on poverty
(except Kampong Thom: 13% to 9%)
• Industry employment
• unlikely to increase income (<3%)
• could reduce poverty in a few areas
(only in Battembang & Pursat)
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
21. Mekong Delta, Vietnam
High vulnerability demands active management
• Sealevel rise, salinity, profits drop 50% or more
• Very low adaptive capacity
(less floods, less nutrients, less profits)
• Adaptation strategies would replace
less than 5% of possible income loss
• Very high risk of increasing poverty if not actively managed
• Industry employment
• doesn’t find much uptake
• unlikely to reduce poverty
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
22. Synthesis
• No generalisations possible as Mekong region very diverse
• Irrigation no silver bullet for poverty alleviation
• Industry employment could be effective in some areas but not all
• Some areas highly vulnerable due to behavioural impediments
• Large potential for unintended side effects
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 24
23. Thank you
Dr Alex Smajgl
alex.smajgl@csiro.au
Dr John Ward
j.ward@csiro.au
CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP
24. Hua Sai Baht, Isaan, Thailand
Irrigation is unlikely to reduce poverty
Large irrigation schemes in Isaan
• Irrigation has
• large impacts on average income
• Low impacts on poverty
New manufacturing industries
• Industry employment has
• Low impacts on average income
• Large impacts on poverty
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 26
25. Nexus effects – Livelihoods
1. Reduced income from fish in all LMB countries
2. Increased migration from Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia into
Thailand
3. More employment in commercial farming, while decrease in both
small and subsistence farming households
4. Less income from riverside gardens
5. Maybe higher income from rice (potential productivity increase)
6. Increase wage employment in NE Thailand
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
26. Main dissatisfaction with factors of wellbeing
•Income
•Family health
Similar to all case studies except
•Family relations
Nam Ngum
•Roads
•Work security0and 20 40quality
water 60 0 20 40 60
Roads and Public
Income transport
Domestic water supply
Personal/family health
Electricity
Family relations
Work availability and
Roads and Public… security
Family relations
Work availability and…
Food availability and
Water quality security
Health services
Domestic water supply
28 | Exploring Mekong Futures
27. What households expect to happen over the next 10 years
climate changing, more water but more polluted, resources decline, new
technology
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Weather becomes more variable
Water will become more polluted
More water available all year round to grow
crops
Soil fertility declines
Farm technology takes over and less traditional
farm systems
Fish, aquatic animals and plants decline
0= this will not occur 6= this will occur for sure
Exploring Mekong Futures
28. What will impact households wellbeing most over the next 10 years?
New technology, new markets, continue with rice, resources decline
and climate changing
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Farm technology takes over and less
traditional farm systems
Likely to occur
•climate changing Access to traders and markets
•more water becomes much easier
•more polluted
You will continue to grow rice because
• resources of food security
decline
•new technology Fish, aquatic animals and plants
decline
Weather becomes more variable
0= this will have no affect 6= this will affect us for sure
Exploring Mekong Futures
29. Five main human values guide people’s lives and underpin behaviour
Combinations or clusters of values influence decisions to adapt or not adapt:
env aware
Importance of nature
Biocentric
1.20
Open to change
0.80
social concern resistant to change
0.40
0.00 Social concern open to change
-0.40 Family priority
-0.80
Open toto
Open Change Altruistic in
Interest
-1.20
change others welfare
-1.60
-2.00
Conservative
Family, tradition Egocentric
Self interest
respect for elders
31 | Exploring Mekong Futures
30. Diversity of value clusters across the Mekong Region
Value typology of case studies
Tonle Nam Hua Sai Vietnam Xishuangbanna
Sap Ngum Bart Delta
Environmental concern
10.5% 19.6% 26.4% 28.9% 5.7%
Open to change 34.2% 7.6% 4.0% 6.8% 2.6%
Social concern and
7.5% 36.5% 27.7% 13.5% 22.7%
resistant
Social concern and
46.5% 31.8% 34.3% 17.4% 62.5%
adaptive
Family priority
1.4% 4.4% 7.6% 33.4% 6.5%
32 | Exploring Mekong Futures
31. Profit down by 50% for Tonle Sap Nam Ngum Hua Sai Bart Vietnam Yunnan
5 years Delta
Environmental concern high
Farm size large
Education (<primary) <primary
Profits occur (low) low
Social concern x high
Value typology x x
Migration/pop change Low high
Family priority
Future resource decline Low high low
Gender male male
Age <30
Open to change high
33 | Exploring Mekong Futures
32. Increased employment Vietnam
Tonle Sap Nam Ngum Hua Sai Bart Yunnan
and out migration Delta
Roads and infrastructure high
Farm size <19000m2 Small med
Farm/off farm income low
Income
Profits occur high
low
Social concern high low
Open to
Value typology change, Self interest
family
Migration/pop change high
Home ownership yes
Gender male
Age <35
Peaceful world high
34 | Exploring Mekong Futures
33. Key conclusions
1. Intended adaptation strategies are country specific and
depend on the characteristics of change: e.g. economic crisis
or industry employment and migration
1. Different sets of values, expectations and motivations explain
intended adaptation responses (65-70% correct)
1. Simpler explanatory sets can be identified and measured but
a single regional solution does not exist
1. Better to know these before policy implementation and to
update through time
1. Policies can be designed and tailored to account for the
factors of change, vulnerable segments of the community and
communities who adapt
Exploring Mekong Futures
34. Understanding adaptation Profit reduced by 50%: same and stay
No = adapt Decreasing importance
Yes = not adapt in decision making
Unity with nature
Individual wealth
Growing rice A peaceful world
36 | Exploring Mekong Futures
35. Results Integration – Complex systems
modelling
Government Markets
(i.e. approval for dams, mining, (trans-boundary water,
plantations, railway) commodities,
labour)
Climate Households
(rain, sea-level rise) (livelihoods, location,
income)
Landscape Flora
(rice, food crops, Fauna
(land cover, soil, slopes) energy crops, (i.e. fish)
rubber, trees, )
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures
36. Expert panel: a method for structuring a group
communication process to deal with a complex
problem
• 1st step: sectoral assessment of each decision
• 2nd step: sectoral assessment of cumulative impacts
• 3rd step: workshop to identify cross sectoral assessment of
each decision and cumulative impacts
• Book in final stage of editing
CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 39
37. Understanding adaptation in response to changes in
livelihoods requires a comprehensive set of explanatory
variables:
• Livelihood determinants
• Factors of wellbeing and dissatisfaction
• Values that guide people’s lives
• Demographics, social institutions and economic data
42 |
Exploring Mekong Futures
Hinweis der Redaktion
ALL Mekong countries require more energy, more food and more water because of increasing populations and higher income.But investments to secure such increases in water, food and energy can have side effects. The Mekong region is highly connected because of transboundary migration, investment and natural resources. Decisions in one place can trigger changes somewhere else in the region, which can have unexpected feedbacks for the initial country. The problem is that some of these large scale decisions have consequences beyond the initial area (i.e. Isaan). Side effects can create unexpected feedbacks. Important to understand if people want a solution that is viable in the long-term.
The problem is that some of these large scale decisions have consequences beyond the initial area (i.e. Isaan).Side effects can create unexpected feedbacks. Important to understand if people want a solution that is viable in the long-term. This is difficult because multiple decisions are taken in parallel in six countries. To understand these complex interactions we put an expert panel together.
Values self interest and right to make individual decisionsSocial concern, fairness, equity and altruismEnvironmental value and responsibilityOpen to change flexibility curiousConservatism, family and traditional values
Energy security is a complex and contested concept – IN RECENT YEARS THE CONCEPT HAS BROADENED beyond security of supply and access at affordable prices. Analysts have called for adding environmental and socio-political attributes to the concept. These eight dimensions and the indicators we associate with them are an attempt to balance comprehensiveness with coherent focus on energy.
SokhemALL Mekong countries require more energy, more food and more water because of increasing populations and imperatives of economic growth partly expressed as higher incomes.But investments to secure increases in water, food and energy can have important and unexpected side effects. The Mekong region is highly connected because of transboundary migration, investment and differential endowments and demands of natural resources. Decisions in one place can trigger changes somewhere else in the region, which can have unexpected feedbacks for the initial country. Expert panel looked at these 6 decisions and looked at cumulative outcomes. What if all these changes were realised over the next 10 years?
Sokhem
Sokhem
Lu Xing
Lu xing
AlexThis diagram shows the variables the assessment considered for hydropower. Similar diagrams for all six decisions. The workshop allowed connecting all variables.
AlexFish stocks are largely discussed within the context of mainstream dams. However, it emerges as a critical resource that requires careful management and new governance solutions independent from mainstream dams. Impacts of land use change and irrigation are highly uncertain. If land use change and irrigation are managed primarily as an instrument to alleviate poverty the development of the Wider Mekong Region is likely to experience a more sustainable development. Risks in the Nexus need to be managed carefully with particular attention to monoculture dependencies. Migration dynamics depend on a portfolio of available livelihood options and determine a critical factor influencing political stability.Labour shifts from primary to secondary sector employment, in particular as part of an underpinning urbanisation trend. Investing in the necessary urban infrastructure and in maintaining rural livelihood options will be a key factor in safeguarding social and economic stability.It will be critical to effectively manage energy demand (as opposed to the singular management of power supply).
AlexBest to start saying that with this presentation we broaden the scope and look now how the Mekong Delta is linked to the rest of the wider Mekong region. ALL Mekong countries require more energy, more food and more water because of increasing populations and higher income.But investments to secure such increases in water, food and energy can have side effects. The Mekong region is highly connected because of transboundary migration, investment and natural resources. Decisions in one place can trigger changes somewhere else in the region, which can have unexpected feedbacks for the initial country. The problem is that some of these large scale decisions have consequences beyond the initial area (i.e. Isaan).Side effects can create unexpected feedbacks. Important to understand if people want a solution that is viable in the long-term.
Drop in profit and increasing weather variability are relatively abstract concepts, so maybe we delete them from this diagram. Let’s discuss.
Lu Xing
0= this will have no affect 6= this will affect us for sure
0= this will have no affect 6= this will affect us for sureNB: Likely to occur determinants differ in ranking from expected Household impact Ranking of Determinants different for each country.
Linstone and Turoff: a process that canbenefit from subjective judgements on a collective basis”Sokhem Pech (Hatfield): water expertDavid Fullbrook: food expertTira Foran (CSIRO): energy expertLilao Bouapao: Livelihood and migration expertKate Lazarus: Mining expertLu Xing (Yunnan University): Land use change expert
As a general rule decisions and research remain geographically constrained and focussed on a single sector; although this forum and your participation indicates a transition to a broader perspective that addresses connectivity and inter-dependence. Dynamic and non-linear systems;Uncertainty : there are multiple expected outcomes; No right or wrong solutions, only good approximations;Every solution is unique and novel: limited opportunity to learn from past experience;Each implemented solution will perturb the system: introducing a series of cascades and +/-feedbacks;Therefore there is no stopping rule;No flexibility for decision makers to be wrong: that is in many circumstances novel solutions are subordinate to extreme levels of risk aversion; compromises innovative solutionsFear of the simple; Paranoia of omission (we must include all variables and interactions before implementing solutions)