1. Projection for Fish Supply
and Demand in Indonesia
Tran Van Nhuong
Chan Chin Yee

2. Indonesia Datasets
• Model was used to generate baseline projections from 2012 to
2030
• Variables for aggregated (national) and disaggregated (by fish
group) data:
 Fish price
 Fish production (capture and aquaculture)
 Fish consumption (rural and urban)
 Fish exports
 Fish imports
• Results were one period (a year) and multi period

3. Supply Match Demand
Environment (Category) Fish Type Fish Type Fish Type
Capture
Marine
Tuna Tuna Tuna
Shrimp Shrimp Shrimp
Grouper Grouper Grouper
Other Other Other
Inland
Carps Carps Carps
Tilapia Tilapia Tilapia
Shrimp
Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Batracus)
Catfish (Pengasius) Catfish (Pengasius) Catfish (Pengasius)
Other
Aquaculture
Brackish water
Shrimp
Milkfish Milkfish Milkfish
Tilapia
Grouper
Other
Fresh water
Carps
Tilapia
Shrimp
Catfish (Batracus)
Catfish (Pengasius)
Other
Processed Fish

4. 2012 Production of Fresh Fish
Environment (Category) Fish Type
Capture
(64.8%)
Marine (60.4%)
Tuna, Shrimp, Grouper, Other
Inland (4.4%)
Carps, Tilapia, Shrimp, Catfish
(Batracus), Catfish (Pengasius), Other
Aquaculture
(35.2%)
Brackish water
(11.6%)
Shrimp, Milkfish, Tilapia, Grouper, Other
Fresh water
(23.6%)
Carps, Tilapia, Shrimp, Catfish
(Batracus), Catfish (Pengasius), Other

5. Sources of data
• Marine and Fisheries Statistics 2012
• Central Bureau of Statistics
• National Bureau of Planning
• FAO
• COMTRADE
• Personal Communication

6. Fish Quantity Balance Sheet (Base Year 2012)
Matched Fish Type
Quantity
(tons)
Tuna Shrimp Milkfish
Catfish
Batracus
Catfish
Pengasius
Carps Tilapia Grouper Others
Processed
Fish
Production 1,134,288 699,358 522,074 480,247 383,792 466,498 759,531
105,117
4,431,348 5,870,901
Import 11,445 3,253 0 0
849
0 0 0 156,428 163,688
Export 201,160 117,084 1,043 7,289 150 203 13,480 12,785 585,214 108,831
Urban
Consumption
232,305 105,593 220,463 69,621
92,289
105,593 154,870 8,319 857,546 2,921,415
Rural
Consumption
228,902 40,058 131,619 36,910 48,928 74,393 125,896 9,149 786,286 3,004,342
Intermediate
Demand
483,366 439,875 220,463 366,426 243,274 286,308 465,284 74,864 2,358,731 0

7. Baseline Scenario:
Projected aggregate quantity of fresh fish, 2012-2030
Annual growth rate 2.5%
2.3%
million kg
Year

8. Baseline Scenario:
Projected aggregate value of fresh fish, 2012-2030
Billion Rupiah
1 USD equivalent to ~13 Thousands Rupiah
Year

9. million kg
Baseline Scenario:
Projected aggregate output of fresh fish by production system, 2012-2030
Annual growth rate 2.5%
3.0%
1.3%
2.0%
1.8%
Year
• Total fresh fish output of Indonesia will expand by an average of 2.5%
• Capture fisheries output will grow faster than aquaculture

10. Million kg
Baseline Scenario:
Projected fresh fish output by fish type, 2012-2030
Year

11. Baseline Scenario:
Projected annual growth rate of output by fish type, 2012-2030
%
Fish Type
• Total fresh fish output will rise by 2.5%
• Fastest growing fish type is Grouper, follow by Tuna
• Slowest growing fish type is Betracus, follow by Pengasius

12. Baseline Scenario:
Projected regional per capita fish consumption, 2012-2030
Kg/person
Annual growth rate 4.6%
Annual growth rate -5.4%
Year

13. Thousand Rupiah/kg
Baseline Scenario:
Projected producer price by fish type, 2012-2030
Year
1 USD equivalent to ~13 Thousands Rupiah

14. Baseline Scenario:
Projected annual growth rate of producer price by fish type, 2012-2030
%
Fish type
• Fastest growing price is Tilapia
• Slowest growing price is shrimp

15. Alternative Scenario:
Scenario 1: decrease 1% of shrimp export price in year 2016
Scenario 2: decrease 1% of capture fisheries production in year 2016
Impacts on growth rate by scenario, (deviation from baseline, %)
%

16. Alternative Scenario:
Scenario 1: decrease 1% of shrimp export price in year 2016
Scenario 2: decrease 1% of capture fisheries production in year 2016
Impacts on growth rate of output by scenario, (deviation from baseline, %)
%

17. Thank You

18. Supply Match Demand
Environment (Category) Fish Type Fish Type Fish Type
Capture
Marine
Tuna Tuna Tuna
Shrimp Shrimp Shrimp
Grouper Grouper Grouper
Other Other Other
Inland
Carps Carps Carps
Tilapia Tilapia Tilapia
Shrimp
Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Batracus) Catfish (Batracus)
Catfish (Pengasius) Catfish (Pengasius) Catfish (Pengasius)
Other
Aquaculture
Brackish water
Shrimp
Milkfish Milkfish Milkfish
Tilapia
Grouper
Other
Fresh water
Carps
Tilapia
Shrimp
Catfish (Batracus)
Catfish (Pengasius)
Other
Processed Fish

19. Assumption: Growth Rate of Exogenous Variables for the
Multi-period Model
Growth of population, %
Region Value Source or basis
Rural 1.49 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000 – 2012)
Urban 1.49 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000 – 2012)
Growth of price index for non-food expenditures, %
Region Value Source or basis
Rural 1.84 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000- 2012)
Urban 1.84 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000 – 2012)
Growth of income, %
Region Value Source or basis
Rural 14.40 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000 – 2012)
Urban 14.40 Central Bureau of Statistics (2000 – 2012)

20. Assumption: Growth Rate of Exogenous Variables for
the Multi-period Model (cont’)
Growth of domestic price of inputs to fish farming/harvest, %
Growth of per capita spending on non-fish food, %
Region Value Source or basis
Rural 3.54 Bappenas, Growth of Consumption, See RPJMN 2015 – 2019
Urban 5.61 Bappenas, Growth of Consumption, See RPJMN 2015 – 2019
Input Value Source or basis
Labor 9.46 Average of Minimum Wage Rate on Small Industry, 2000– 2012
Fuel 1.17 Bappenas 2016-2019
Fertilizer 1.51 Panelkanas Research
Seed 0.70 Panelkanas Research
Feed 1.61 Panelkanas Research

21. Growth of export of prices, %
Growth of import prices, %
Fish type Value Source or basis
Tuna 15.00 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012
Shrimp 17.41 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012
Catfish Pengasius 0.10 Imposed (No Figure)
Other 2.67 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012
Processed 1.36 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012
Fish type/group Value Source or basis
Tuna 9.82 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012
Shrimp -1.34 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012
Milkfish 2.52 Personal Communication to the person in charge in MMAF
Catfish Betracus 1.86 Personal Communication to the person in charge in MMAF
CatfishPengasius 3.19 Personal Communication to the person in charge in MMAF
Carps 11.86 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012
Tilapia 5.69 Personal Communication to the person in charge in MMAF
Other 8.81 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012
Grouper 3.62 Personal Communication to the person in charge in MMAF
Processed 8.53 Combine the FishStatPlus datasets (FAO) and Comtrade (UN) 2003-2012
Assumption: Growth Rate of Exogenous Variables for
the Multi-period Model (cont’)

22. Growth of prices of all non-fish food expenditures, %
Input by region Value Source or basis
Rural
Rice 11.64 Central Bureau of Statistics 2000 - 2012
Meats 5.01 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012
Vegetables 2.90 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012
Prepared food and beverages 5.68 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012
Tobacco 6.66 Central Bureau of Statistics 2000 - 2012
Other food 5.68 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012
Urban
Rice 11.64 Central Bureau of Statistics 2000 - 2012
Meats 5.01 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012
Vegetables 2.90 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012
Prepared food and beverages 5.68 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012
Tobacco 6.66 Central Bureau of Statistics 2000 - 2012
Other food 5.68 Central Bureau of Statistics 2008 - 2012
Assumption: Growth Rate of Exogenous Variables for
the Multi-period Model (cont’)

23. Alternative Scenario:
Scenario 1: decrease 1% of shrimp export price in year 2016
Scenario 2: decrease 1% of capture fisheries production in year 2016
Impacts on growth rate of output by fish type by scenario, (deviation from baseline, %)
%