Leasing activity signals future gains. More than 250,000 square feet of expansions were signed this quarter, with most commencing in the next six months.
2. Annual change in employment (in thousands)
Source: JLL Research, BLS
Leasing activity by submarket (leases over 10,000 s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Quarterly absorption since 2014
Source: JLL Research
Leasing activity signals future gains
2,257
22.22%
5.56%
5.56%
11.11%
55.56%
CBD
Clayton
Northwest County
St. Charles County
West County
-150,000
-75,000
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
300,000
2014 2015 2016
s.f.
Absorption
Office Insight
St. Louis | Q1 2016
42,125,546
Total inventory (s.f.)
-74,190
Q1 2015 net absorption (s.f.)
$19.05
Direct average asking rent
125,000
Total under construction (s.f.)
14.9%
Total vacancy
-74,190
YTD net absorption (s.f.)
-3.9%
12-month rent growth
60.0%
Total preleased
Office employment growth bounces back
Employment in the office occupying sectors maintained a steady annual growth
rate of 1.0 percent over the past 12 months, doubling the previous year. Several
companies have announced plans to increase head counts including: Bunge,
Thomson Reuters, and Moneta Group. Unfortunately, some tenants have also
announced plans to leave the market. Hardee’s (CBD) is relocating its corporate
office to Nashville in 2017. Similarly, AEP (West County), which was acquired
last year by, American Commercial Lines, will be moving to Louisville. Both
tenants will leave behind space in excess of 40,000 square feet.
Activity focused to the west
More than half of the leasing activity in the first quarter was done in West
County, further sustaining the trend of tenants looking toward the suburbs. The
spread between Class A and B buildings widened further this quarter. Vacancy
for Class A buildings is now 460 basis points lower. Activity is no different,
almost 65.0 percent of leases this quarter were in Class A buildings. The gap in
asking rates between classes is now over $6.00 per square foot. As a result, the
available space in Class B buildings is lowering rental rates across the market.
Market takes a pause
After a banner year in 2015, the market took a breath in the first quarter posting
negative absorption for only the second time since 2014. In a reversal of
recent trends, losses were led by the suburban markets, which absorbed over
700,000 square feet last year. The CBD offset some of the losses, gaining
42,000 square feet. The losses are not expected to continue. More than 250,000
square feet of expansions were signed this quarter, with most commencing in the
next six months.
(5)
0
5
10
15
2013 2014 2015 2016
Financial Activities Professional and Business Services
Information Government
4. Office Leasing Activity Report
St. Louis
Q1 2016
This report analyzes all closed office leases > 10,000 s.f.
Leasing activity by size
430,073
18
430,073
18
277,194
152,879
-
Growing Shrinking Stable
48,451
0
131,055
0
238,510
12,057
Top 10 lease transactions during the quarter
Size Footprint Term (mos)
60,743 Growing 0
60,496 Growing 0
37,613 Growing 0
36,736 Growing 0
32,000 Stable 0
23,000 Growing 0
22,285 Growing 0
20,265 Growing 0
19,686 Stable 0
15,667 Stable 0Principal Financial Group 14755 N Outer Forty Rd West County Direct
MTM 635 Maryville West County Direct
SSM 1551 Wall St St. Charles County Direct
Clarkson Eye Care 15933 Clayton Road West County
Lindenwood University
Direct
SSM 12312 Olive Blvd West County Direct
Direct
100 N. Broadway CBDNestle Purina Petcare
Ascension Health Alliance
Southern Graphic Systems
Direct
2130-2132 Kratky Rd Northwest County Direct
815 Olive St CBD
Type
1350 Timberlake Manor West County DirectCentene
Tenant Address Submarket
Direct
2050-2054 West Port Center West County
At a glance
Total s.f. leased QTD
Total transactions QTD
Total s.f. leased YTD
Tenant footprint
12 0 6
Total transactions YTD
Leasing activity by transaction type
Leasing activity by submarketLeasing activity by industry
Total Class A s.f. leased
Expansion in market
Expansion in building
Renewal
Extension (< 36-month term)
Relocation within market
New to market
Average term (mos)
Total Class B s.f. leased
- - 2 3 13
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
100,000+ 75,000-99,999 50,000-74,999 30,000-49,999 20,000-29,999
Total leased Number of leases
22.22%
5.56%
5.56%
11.11%
55.56%
CBD Clayton
Northwest County St. Charles County
West County
6.67%
13.33%
6.67%
6.67%
6.67%
20.00%
33.33%
6.67%
Education
Banking and financial services
Transportation and freight forwarders
Engineering
Telecom
Other
Healthcare
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Historical leasing activity
Source: JLL Research 2016 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
5. Office Statistics
St. Louis | Q1 2016
Class Inventory (s.f.)
Total net
absorption (s.f.)
YTD total net
absorption (s.f.)
YTD total net
absorption (%
of stock)
Direct vacancy
(%)
Total vacancy
(%)
Average asking
rent ($ p.s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Downtown Totals 10,298,166 41,765 41,765 0.4% 20.9% 21.7% $16.19 0 0
CBD Totals 10,298,166 41,765 41,765 0.4% 20.9% 21.7% $16.19 0 0
Clayton Totals 7,509,865 -14,653 -14,653 -0.2% 7.9% 8.5% $24.17 0 0
Northwest County Totals 3,708,693 -37,034 -37,034 -1.0% 20.3% 21.5% $16.46 0 0
St. Charles County Totals 2,316,429 26,839 26,839 1.2% 16.4% 17.9% $17.80 0 0
South County Totals 2,763,102 -1,722 -1,722 -0.1% 6.8% 7.2% $20.69 0 0
West County Totals 15,529,291 -89,385 -89,385 -0.6% 12.6% 12.8% $21.01 0 0
Suburban Totals 31,827,380 -115,955 -115,955 -0.4% 12.2% 12.7% $20.96 0 125,000
St. Louis Totals 42,125,546 -74,190 -74,190 -0.2% 14.3% 14.9% $19.05 0 125,000
Downtown A 6,334,602 47,673 47,673 0.8% 16.9% 18.2% $19.17 0 0
CBD A 6,334,602 47,673 47,673 0.8% 16.9% 18.2% $19.17 0 0
Clayton A 5,166,182 -12,198 -12,198 -0.2% 7.7% 8.4% $26.54 0 0
Northwest County A 1,699,549 -37,034 -37,034 -2.2% 10.5% 12.7% $20.26 0 0
St. Charles County A 847,728 5,909 5,909 0.7% 14.8% 14.8% $19.66 0 0
South County A 691,964 0 0 0.0% 9.5% 11.1% $23.21 0 0
West County A 7,891,019 -85,785 -85,785 -1.1% 10.9% 11.2% $24.63 0 125,000
Suburban A 16,296,442 -129,108 -129,108 -0.8% 10.0% 10.6% $24.25 0 125,000
St. Louis A 22,631,044 -81,435 -81,435 -0.4% 11.9% 12.7% $22.42 0 125,000
Downtown B 3,963,564 -5,908 -5,908 -0.1% 27.3% 27.3% $13.18 0 0
CBD B 3,963,564 -5,908 -5,908 -0.1% 27.3% 27.3% $13.18 0 0
Clayton B 2,343,683 -2,455 -2,455 -0.1% 8.5% 8.7% $19.15 0 0
Northwest County B 2,009,144 0 0 0.0% 28.5% 28.9% $15.28 0 0
St. Charles County B 1,468,701 20,930 20,930 1.4% 17.3% 19.6% $16.54 0 0
South County B 2,071,138 -1,722 -1,722 -0.1% 5.9% 5.9% $19.53 0 0
West County B 7,638,272 -3,600 -3,600 0.0% 14.4% 14.5% $17.91 0 0
Suburban B 15,530,938 13,153 13,153 0.1% 14.5% 14.8% $17.45 0 0
St. Louis B 19,494,502 7,245 7,245 0.0% 17.1% 17.3% $16.14 0 0
211 North Broadway Suite 2075 St. Louis MO 63102 tel +1 314 261 7377 fax +1 314 338 2081 blaise.tomazic@am.jll.com
2016 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Blaise Tomazic Research Manager
6. Total jobs vs. unemployment rate: St. Louis
Source: BLS, JLL Research
Industrial employment trends (12-month change) :St. Louis
Source: BLS, JLL Research
Job growth/loss by sector (12-month change): St. Louis
Source: BLS, JLL Research
Employment Update
Metro St. Louis | March 2016
3.1%
(1,500)
(900)
0
700
1,000
1,200
1,900
2,700
3,200
7,500
Manufacturing
Information
Leisure & Hospitality
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Government
Financial Activities
Other Services
Mining, Logging & Construction
Professional & Business Services
Educational & Health Services
Number of Jobs
Office employment trends (12-month change) :St. Louis
Source: BLS, JLL Research
Job growth (12-month change): United States vs. St. Louis
Source: BLS, JLL Research
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
St. Louis United States
5.3%U.S. unemployment
1.9%U.S. 12-month job growth
5.2%St. Louis unemployment
1.2%St. Louis 12-month job growth
4.7%Missouri unemployment
0.7%Missouri 12-month job growth
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Information
Government
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
1,220,000
1,240,000
1,260,000
1,280,000
1,300,000
1,320,000
1,340,000
1,360,000
1,380,000
1,400,000
1,420,000
Total Employment
Unemployment
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mining, Logging & Construction
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Manufacturing
Other Services
Peak: 1,416,204 jobs